STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 24, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 23, 2010

Dow... 10,298.44 +4.92 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,254.23 -7.57 (-0.33%)
S&P 500... 1,092.04 -3.27 (-0.30%)
Gold future... 1,237 +2.30 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.13 +0.01 (+0.16%)
30-Year Bond 4.07 +0.01 (+0.17%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Durable Orders May
Briefing.com -1.8%
Consensus -1.3%
Prior 2.8%

08:30 Durable Orders ex Transportation May
Briefing.com 1.3%
Consensus 1.3%
Prior -1.1%

08:30 Initial Claims 06/19
Briefing.com 460K
Consensus 460K
Prior 472K

08:30 Continuing Claims 06/12
Briefing.com 4600K
Consensus 4580K
Prior 4571K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

32. DOL report

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending June 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 476,000. The 4-week moving average was 462,750, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 464,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending June 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 12 was 4,548,000, a decrease of 45,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,593,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,586,500, a decrease of 21,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,608,250.

The fiscal year-to-date average of seasonally adjusted weekly insured unemployment, which corresponds to the appropriated AWIU trigger, was 5.084 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 421,104 in the week ending June 19, a decrease of 23,066 from the previous week. There were 568,552 initial claims in the comparable week in 2009.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.3 percent during the week ending June 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,284,153, a decrease of 24,408 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.6 percent and the volume was 6,113,017.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending June 5 were in Puerto Rico (6.3 percent), Oregon (5.2), Alaska (5.1), Nevada (4.5), Pennsylvania (4.5), California (4.4), Wisconsin (4.2), Connecticut (4.1), North Carolina (4.1), and Washington (4.0).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending June 12 were in California (+17,572), Pennsylvania (+5,266), Florida (+4,958), Texas (+2,971), and Illinois (+2,481), while the largest decreases were in New Mexico (-708), Kansas (-596), Mississippi (-522), Louisiana (-286), and Alabama (-251).

http://www.workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/press/2010/062410.asp

[ozymandius]

33. numbers

08:30 Durable Orders May
Actual -1.1%
Prior 3.0%
Revised from 2.9%

08:30 Durable Orders ex Transportation May
Actual 0.9%
Prior -0.8%
Revised from -1.0%

08:30 Initial Claims 06/19
Actual 457K
Prior 476K
Revised from 472K

08:30 Continuing Claims 06/12
Actual 4548K
Prior 4593K
Revised from 4571K

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $76 amid signs US economy weak

LONDON – Oil prices fell below $76 a barrel Thursday in Europe amid signs the U.S. economic recovery and demand for crude remain uneven.

The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude oil supplies increased by 2 million barrels last week, while analysts were expecting stockpiles to drop. Traders got more discouraging news when the government said new home sales dropped by a third to a record low last month.

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that "financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth," citing "developments abroad" without mentioning Europe by name.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 0.9 cent to $2.0594 a gallon, gasoline fell 0.83 cent to $2.0740 a gallon and natural gas was off 1.9 cents at $4.785 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Venezuela to nationalize U.S. firm's oil rigs

CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuela will nationalize a fleet of oil rigs belonging to U.S. company Helmerich and Payne, the latest takeover in a push to socialism as President Hugo Chavez struggles with lower oil output and a recession.

A former soldier inspired by Cuba's Fidel Castro, Chavez has made energy nationalization the linchpin in his 'revolution'. He has also taken over assets in telecommunications, power, steel and banking.

The 11 drilling rigs have been idled for months following a dispute over pending payments by the OPEC member's state oil company PDVSA. Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Wednesday the rigs, the Oklahoma-based company's entire Venezuelan fleet, were being nationalized to bring them back into production.

Chavez in 2007 nationalized multi-billion dollar projects in Venezuela's vast Orinoco oil region, persuading companies such as BP Plc, to accept minority stakes in facilities they had built.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100624/ts_nm/us_venezuela_nationalizations

[Demeter]

53. Go Chavez!

I'm turning into a Trotskyist, god help us all. That Renaissance series should be on our permanent reference list, Ozy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l37RhdFGVsM&feature=related

and subsequent.

[ozymandius]

26. Offshore Insurance to Shrink as BP-Like Risks Shunned (Update1)

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc’s rig explosion that caused the worst oil spill in U.S. history is set to curtail insurance coverage for offshore drilling, forcing companies to self-insure or exit deepwater fields.

BP’s leak in the Gulf of Mexico is “a market-changing event,” said Dieter Berg, senior executive manager marine at Munich Re, the world’s biggest reinsurer and among those exposed to losses. “Buyers and sellers of coverage will be reevaluating their appetites for offshore energy risk,” said Berg in a June 11 e-mail response to questions.

Insurers are reassessing how much they can afford to underwrite as the incident exposes higher liabilities than previously thought, said Gregory Thomas, head of offshore activities at Assuranceforeningen Skuld, an Oslo-based underwriter for deepwater contractors.

Insurers are charging 50 percent more for policies covering oil rigs in deep waters since the BP leak, Moody’s Investors Service said on June 3. R.S. Sharma, chairman of India’s biggest explorer Oil & Natural Gas Corp., said June 9 it would have cost the state-owned company three times as much if it had renewed its offshore policy after the disaster.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alTvnLvIW_Wg

[ozymandius]

3. World leaders and their issues before G-20 summit

UNITED STATES
President Barack Obama has endured a rough two months, struggling to come to grips with the nation's worst oil spill. But White House officials contend the president is coming into the G-20 summit from a position of strength, with an economic recovery in the United States starting to gain traction. They said pending financial overhaul legislation in Congress gives Obama a strong bargaining position in his talks with other G-20 leaders. Obama wrote a letter to his G-20 colleagues last week urging them not to waver in their coordinated response to the global financial crisis. But many countries, worried about exploding government deficits, are resisting his calls for sustained stimulus spending. At home, Obama is having trouble getting a scaled-down jobs bill through Congress.

JAPAN
Japan's new prime minister, Naoto Kan, who took office earlier this month, will make his diplomatic debut at the G-8 and G-20 summits. Kan took office after Yukio Hatoyama abruptly quit after just eight months in office, when his approval ratings plunged over his broken campaign promise to move a U.S. airbase off the island of Okinawa. Kan has said "fiscal reconstruction" will be his top agenda item at the Toronto meetings. He said Monday that Japan will soon start debating a possible sales tax increase to rein in the nation's bulging deficits, the product of two decades of government efforts to jump-start the economy. A fiscal hawk and a social progressive, Kan repeated warnings that Japan could face a crisis similar to the one that has crippled Greece if it doesn't move forcefully to deal with its debt problems.

BRITAIN
This will be the first G-20 meeting for British Prime Minister David Cameron, who took office in May after his Conservative Party formed a coalition government that ended 13 years of Labor Party rule. Cameron campaigned on a platform of reducing Britain's huge budget deficits and accused Prime Minister Gordon Brown of underestimating the extent of the debt crisis. Cameron's government unveiled an emergency budget Tuesday that included higher taxes and the toughest cuts in public spending in decades. Cameron has said the measures are needed to reassure international investors worried about a British budget deficit that equals 10.2 percent of the country's economy, a percentage in line with the current U.S. deficit. A Cameron spokesman said Obama and Cameron discussed the BP oil spill in a phone call Tuesday and the two leaders would cover the issue again during a one-on-one meeting Saturday.

CHINA
Chinese President Hu Jintao delivered the biggest surprise in the run-up to the summit: In the face of intense pressure from the United States and other countries, Beijing agreed to allow its currency to resume rising in value against the dollar. American manufacturers contend that China has manipulated its currency to gain unfair trade advantages. By agreeing to resume allowing the currency to appreciate, Hu removed a contentious issue from the G-20 agenda. China escaped the worst of the global economic crisis by pushing a torrent of bank loans and government spending through the economy. The result was high growth and strong employment but also soaring property prices and fears the lending spree might leave banks with heavy debts. Now there are also worries that Europe's debt crisis will crimp Chinese exports to its biggest foreign market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100624/ap_on_bi_ge/us_g20_nations

[Demeter]

54. I Never Knew that Lying Flat on Your Back on the Floor Was a Position of Strength!

Hoodathunkit?

[amandabeech]

62. So long as the banksters aren't doing the lying, it's OK.

The rest of us can be flat on our backs, but who cares? Not Timmy Giethner!

[Po_d Mainiac]

4. This chart says it all

[Po_d Mainiac]

7. shorter time frame

[ozymandius]

10. I remember when sales began revving up in 1997.

Back then, a neighbor bought the house next door for $50k. After two years of repairs and upgrades, he sold it for $175k. The next owner stayed in the house for a year then sold the thing for $225k. But I remember how the whole process began thirteen years ago like so much dot-com stock.

[DemReadingDU]

18. wow, that poor sucker who paid $225k

Has he walked away yet?

[ozymandius]

23. He was fine.

That house kept selling with the area averaging a 15% increase in value per year through the boom. This was in a re-gentrified area of town. Anyone who paid over $400k for this house though.... Pity them.

I moved into the neighborhood in 1995 when it still had a whiff of skank in the air. Soon afterwards, the neighborhood received a write-up in a local rag about it being an "area to watch" for its fabulous location, great restaurants and bars, walkability and value. Four years of influx with new money and new people brought down many of the rental housing as they converted to condo. Many local businesses were driven out in favor of big chains like Starbucks, Wolf Camera and Video, Ben and Jerry's Ice Cream and so on. But that boom did not last.

The neighborhood has been overdeveloped, oversold and all the local flavor that made it popular has gone. Higher commercial rents along with real estate speculation dying have yielded two things: empty storefronts where the big chains used to be because they could not make the profit margins their shareholders expect; and then the condos are becoming rentals again. The transformation has been astonishingly fast.

Housing prices continue to drop. The person who last bought the house next to my old apartment building will either stay put for awhile or possibly leave ASAP. I pity anyone who bought any property there in 2006.

[Tansy_Gold]

45. My neighbors paid $96K in 2001.

Estimated value right now (according to zillow, and I really take that with a block of salt) $120K and they'd paid on it for 9+ years. But they walked away from/just before foreclosure this past week-end. They lost jobs and couldn't keep up the payments. I don't know if they tried to sell; in this market it would have been extremely difficult.

To tell the truth, I think someone could walk in with $50K and take it. If I had the cash, I would do it in a heartbeat. I don't.

Point being that it's not always about the price -- there's so much more to the whole picture. When bought, how much down, how long lived in, what improvements made, etc., etc., etc. I'm tired of people and their homes just being numbers. Buying and selling property is one thing, but a home is where you live and that should count for something.



Tansy Gold, NTY

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. Really refutes the myth that

Second mortgages have any value in today's market. (Or in the foreseeable future)

We closed on a house 18 months ago, that one of the kid's (and her family) are currently residing in. It was a short with WF holding the primary. The closing price was pretty close to what it would cost me to build + appliances. (And I have built a couple from scratch) Wells took a $38k hit and there were two secondaries totaling $58K that got dismissed for about $4/$1k.

The irony is the former mortgagee was half owner of a mortgage underwriting firm (Novaya Mortgage Inc.)...Major flash in the pan outfit that ignored the print regarding "truth in lending" ....... Last known to be in the Baltimore area..Wonner if he's making pizza with Abramoff?

[ozymandius]

35. Home Sales: Distressing Gap

by CalculatedRisk on 6/23/2010 08:06:00 PM

This is something I've been tracking for years ... the first graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through May. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the '60s. Then along came the housing bubble, and the "distressing gap" (due partially to distressed sales).

Initially the gap was caused by the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

The two spikes in existing home sales were due primarily to the first time homebuyer tax credit (the initial credit last year, followed by the extension to April 30th / close by June 30th). There were also two smaller bumps for new home sales related to the tax credit. Since new home sales are reported when contracts are signed, the 2nd spike for new home sales was in April and then sales collapsed in May.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/home-sales-distressing-gap.html

[wordpix]

55. here in DC, you can get a nice 1 br. for 450K or so in a good neighborhood

and THAT is why existing home sales are at a standstill

[Kringle]

5. Greek bonds top 10%

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB10YR%3AIND

congrats

[Po_d Mainiac]

8. Welcome to DU

[Kringle]

9. ciao .nt

[ozymandius]

11. Dang!

That is some hellacious yield. Thanks for posting.

[Po_d Mainiac]

34. The future of U$ T's n/t

[ozymandius]

12. Fed maintains record-low rates

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US Federal Reserve has held its key interest rate at historic lows and has said the economy was continuing its modest recovery despite financial headwinds from abroad.

The Federal Open Market Committee said it was maintaining its federal funds rate target between zero and 0.25 percent, where it has been pegged since December 2008 to help the economy recover from its worst recession in decades.

The central bank's rate decision was widely expected after economic reports since the last FOMC meeting two months ago showed the government-fueled recovery was still struggling.

The FOMC said that household spending, which usually accounts for two-thirds of the country's economic activity, "is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100624/ts_afp/useconomybankrate

[ozymandius]

13. GOP senators may still block more jobless benefits

WASHINGTON – A Republican filibuster appears increasingly likely to kill long-sought legislation extending jobless benefits and a host of other spending and tax measures, despite a new round of cuts to the measure Wednesday that reduced its deficit impact even further.

A senior Senate Democratic aide said Wednesday evening that several days' worth of negotiations with a handful of moderate Republicans had failed and that a vote later this week to break the filibuster was likely to fail as well. Democrats would then abandon the measure. The aide required anonymity to speak frankly about internal party deliberations.

Failure to pass the bill would mean about 200,000 jobless people a week would lose benefits that average more than $300 a week because they would be unable to reapply for additional tiers of benefits enacted since 2008. Governors denied help with their budget woes are likely to lay off tens of thousands of state workers.

A new version of the Senate measure began circulating Wednesday afternoon that pares back a $24 billion state aid package down to $16 billion and cuts $1.8 billion in previously appropriated money from stimulus and defense accounts, among other changes. A cut in food stamp benefits enacted last year appears to produce almost $10 billion in savings. It would cut the benefit for a family of four by about $45 a month when implemented in 2015, according to the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal-leaning research and advocacy group.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100624/ap_on_bi_ge/us_congress_spending

[DemReadingDU]

16. Do the Republicans want angry people?

Don't the Republicans understand that unemployment money is probably the only thing keeping these people from rising up in anger for losing their jobs. These people have no money, and if unemployment checks stop, then expect an increase in crime and violence.

[ozymandius]

19. They appear not to give a damn.

Snowe and Collins are looking to save themselves from unemployment. If they vote for extending unemployment benefits, and thus create the perception that they've helped increase the deficit, then they will have to deal with a Tea Party challenge in the Maine primaries. Look how well that has turned out for Republican incumbents so far.

Short sighted, selfish, coarse and impenetrably thick: these are the characteristics we have come to know too well with this GOP.

[florida08]

46. I would agree

It's going to get worse. A new poll shows the majority of the country want republicans contolling congress. That translates into stop spending money on lazy people. The haves don't give a damn about the have nots and that is in both parties. I worried about the debt too but that hasn't stopped the spending on 2 occupations or captializing Wall Street. The electorate is as corrupted as the elected.

[bread_and_roses]

28. They only worry if angry people organize - not if they break out in crime & violence

The crime and violence are likely to be committed against their family, neighbors, (former)co-workers, a gas station down the street or on a petty scale against too-big-to-care Wal-Mart. Our Corporate Overlords won't suffer it. So they don't care.

They will only care if the angry unemployed, hungry, abandoned, homeless, begin to organize effectively and refuse to cooperate with this juggernaut of corporate wealth and power. It terrifies them even when it happens on a small scale - witness the factory workers who refused to leave a few years ago. Or, for that matter, witness the Tea Party and the bought-and-sold cowering before it. However deluded, and however much they serve their Corporate Masters in the big picture, they have shown a willingness to take on these lower-level functionaries of their real Masters to "make an example."

Since "our side" has shown nothing comparable in terms of purpose, determination, or will, we flounder haplessly while the rulers of the earth laugh all the way to the bank.

[DemReadingDU]

31. I believe when angry, hungry, unemployed people organize, it will be riots

And there will be violence. These are desperate people, and desperate people will do desperate things.
:(

What we witnessed before, were not hungry people. Upset, yes, but not hungry.

[bread_and_roses]

43. I don't think we are in disagreement

just perhaps using slightly different terminology, or looking through slightly different lenses.

[TalkingDog]

51. Disconnected....

something like this




Yeah, sorry...it's just makes me laugh

[ozymandius]

44. Senators Prepare A Citigroup-Sized Hole In Volcker Rule

Senate negotiators are expected to offer changes today to the financial reform bill that would soften the Volcker rule. On Capitol Hill there is widespread speculation that the Senate negotiators will propose language that would allow banks to invest a small amount of their capital in their internal hedge funds or proprietary trading desks.

Exactly how much capital the banks would be able to commit to their hedge funds and proprietary trading under such a change is not clear. Early reports indicate there may be support on Capitol Hill to allow banks to put 2% of their capital into hedge funds they sponsor or prop trading. Bank lobbyists have been pushing for a higher number, perhaps up to 5% — a level which would allow many banks to escape the Volcker rule altogether.

But depending on which percentage the Capitol Hill negotiators agree to, lawmakers may unintentionally be allowing the banks that needed the biggest bailouts during the financial crisis to escape the Volcker Rule. On the other hand, banks that fared better may be forced to spin off parts of their prop trading and hedge fund businesses.

The Volcker rule, suggested by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, would ban banks from trading with their own capital or sponsoring hedge funds. The goal is to prevent banks from engaging in risky or complex trading that could undermine their financial health and require a new round of bailouts.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37879514

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Assholes! Banks really do own the place!

[ozymandius]

14. Bond expert Gundlach: double-dip recession coming

CHICAGO – Bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach emphatically believes we're headed for a double-dip recession.

The co-founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital LP, a Los Angeles-based bond fund manager, said the U.S. government will move to increase taxes next year in an attempt to balance the budget and alleviate the national debt of about $13 trillion. The downside to that, however, is it will hammer the fragile economic recovery and push economic growth back into negative territory.

He said public sentiment has turned against government funded bailouts, which have pumped trillions of dollars into banks and automakers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100623/ap_on_bi_ge/us_investment_conference_tax_increases

[DemReadingDU]

30. IMO, we never got out of the recession

we're going in deeper recession, heading towards depression.
:(

[ozymandius]

15. World stocks lose ground after Fed statement

BANGKOK – World stock markets retreated Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a note of caution in its latest assessment of the world's No. 1 economy.

The central bank's statement, which accompanied a decision to leave interest rates at a record low, added to unease after weak housing figures suggested the U.S. economic recovery is uneven and vulnerable to turmoil in the markets.

In early European trade, France's CAC-40 dropped 0.9 percent, Germany's DAX fell 0.7 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.6 percent. Futures pointed to tentative gains on Wall Street.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index edged up 4.64 points, or 0.1 percent, to 9,928.34 after exports rose for a sixth straight month as brisk global demand for cars and high-tech products helped shore up a recovery in the world's second-largest economy. South Korea's Kospi gained 0.8 percent to 1,739.87.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100624/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

17. European Stocks, U.S. Futures Decline; Yen, Treasuries Gain

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell, led by Greece, and U.S. index futures dropped on concern slowing economic growth will hurt the most indebted countries. The yen strengthened and two-year Treasuries gained.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.7 percent at 12:18 p.m. in London as Greece’s ASE Index tumbled 2.3 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.5 percent. The yen appreciated against all of the 16 most-traded currencies, and the U.S. Treasury note rose, sending the yield to the lowest since November. Greek bonds dropped, driving the premium to German bunds to the widest since May 7.

Most Asian stocks fell, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 0.4 percent, declining for a third day. Cnooc Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil explorer, lost 1.9 percent in Hong Kong.

A report from the Commerce Department due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington may show orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment rose 1 percent in May, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Total orders may fall 1.4 percent, depressed by a plunge in volatile demand for commercial aircraft, economists said. A separate report due at the same time from the Labor Department may show jobless claims fell to 463,000 during the week, from 472,000, economists said.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=advMikg4.5K0&pos=1

[DemReadingDU]

20. I'm still trying to get used to Bloomberg's re-designed site

Everything seems different, the colors, the charts, the news.

[Kringle]

21. yuc .nt

[ozymandius]

24. I tried the new site and didn't like it.

The old site is much better organized. The new site had a link to "old bloomberg" so I went there. Apparently, now that I have made that choice once, Bloomberg has switched my preferences to the old layout. Hence the colors and better access to the stories that had been so easy to find before the redesign.

[DemReadingDU]

27. I just switched back too!

Go to the home page, and page down to the bottom left corner for the link to switch back to the old site.
http://www.bloomberg.com/

Thanks!

[ozymandius]

25. Banker Who Blew Whistle on Secrecy Over Tax Cheats Seeks Pardon

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bradley Birkenfeld, once a UBS AG banker who handled a $200 million investment for a billionaire client, now makes 12 cents an hour mopping floors at the federal prison in Minersville, Pennsylvania.

Sleeping in a bunk bed in a dormitory-style building with 35 other inmates is far from the reward Birkenfeld says he deserves for exposing a massive tax-evasion scandal at UBS, the biggest Swiss bank. He told U.S. authorities how UBS bankers came to the U.S. to woo rich Americans, managed $20 billion of their assets, and helped them cheat the Internal Revenue Service.

Birkenfeld, 45, has asked President Barack Obama to commute a 40-month term he began in January at Schuylkill Federal Correctional Institution for his part in the conspiracy. He is seeking payment from the IRS whistleblower program and wants the U.S. Department of Justice to punish prosecutors who wouldn’t grant him immunity before his 2008 indictment and guilty plea.

His disclosures preceded UBS’s decision to pay $780 million to avoid prosecution, admit it fostered tax evasion from 2000 to 2007, and turn over data on 250 secret accounts to the IRS. UBS later agreed to reveal data on another 4,450 accounts, a transfer upheld last week by the Swiss Parliament. For lifting the veil on Swiss bank secrecy, Birkenfeld said, he’s a hero, not a criminal.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amQbZfmFqYYk

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The way this man has been treated is just plain wrong. If he had kept his mouth shut then he would run afoul of the law by concealing felony tax evasion. But then he opens his mouth and he is found guilty by his association with this tax cheat. He deserves a pardon and a job at the FBI.

[ozymandius]

29. A Closer Look at the Second Leg Down in Housing

Our story so far:

Following the 2,000 Dot Com crash, then Fed Chair Alan Greenspan brought Fed Funds rates down to ultra-low levels. Under 2% for 3 years, and 1% for more than a year.

Rates this low — and for that long — were simply unprecedented. They wreaked havoc with the traditional fixed income market. Bond managers scrambled for yield, and found it in investment grade, triple A rated residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). This better interest rate was created by securitizing mortgages with an unhealthy slug of higher yielding, riskier, sub-prime mortgages.

The Greenspan Fed, in charge of supervising financial lending institutions, looked the other way.

The net result of this was a credit bubble and a housing boom. (A true housing bubble formed only in a handful of places). The credit bubble allowed 10s of millions of Americans to become, albeit temporarily, home owners.

Today, residential real estate confronts numerous headwinds: Credit, once given to anyone who could fog a mirror, is now tight. Hence, demand is far below what it was during the past decade. Home prices are still unwinding from artificially high levels, and remained over-priced. Inventory is elevated. Unemployment remains high. A huge supply of shadow inventory is out there: Speculators and flippers who overpaid but have held onto their properties await modestly higher prices to sell. Bank owned real estate (REOs) continues to increase. We are barely halfway through a decade long foreclosure surge.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/2nd-leg-down-in-housing/

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Go read the whole thing - it's worth your time given the amount of work that went into it.

[Po_d Mainiac]

40. We went here yesterday

This is known, or at least should be by those who have looked at the data. I cannot explain why some economists still have not figured this out.

If they figure something out (economist's), how the hell are they going to be surprised?

[ozymandius]

42. We need a heckuva lot more "Surprised" Economist bidness cards.

Vacancy rates should be one indicator in the CRE context. OER is another indicator as it relates to residential RE. Why have some holdouts not figured out this next leg? For the same reason that we always have "Surprised" Economists. Supremely naïve people.

[Ghost Dog]

61. There is a great deal of 'herd mentality',

probably largely due to a lack of a good, rounded education.

- educare: to teach people to think for themselves.

[ozymandius]

36. Down they go.

9:34
Dow 10,254.22 44.22 (0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,244.31 9.92 (0.44%)
S&P 500 1,086.66 5.38 (0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 3.09% 0.25

[DemReadingDU]

37. With all of the continuing bad news

The market should be trending downward.

I am amazed when the market ends up positive, if only a few dollars. There must be a lot of manipulation going on with the global bankers. They are not quite ready yet, to stop. Must be looking for a few more suckers who think there is still a 'recovery'.

[Po_d Mainiac]

38. If this happens, there will be no need for the horsemen

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dk-matai/gulf-of-mexico-danger-of_b_619095.html

By some geologists' estimates, the methane could be a massive bubble trapped for thousands of years under the Gulf of Mexico sea floor. More than a year ago, geologists expressed alarm in regard to BP and Transocean putting their exploratory rig directly over this massive underground reservoir of methane. Warnings were raised before the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe that the area of seabed chosen might be unstable and inherently dangerous.
<snip>
The intractable problem is that this methane, located deep in the bowels of the earth, is under tremendous pressure. Experts agree that the pressure that blows the oil into the Gulf waters is estimated to be between 30,000 and 70,000 pounds per square inch (psi). Some speculate that the pressure of the methane at the base of the well head, deep under the ocean floor, may be as high as 100,000 psi -- far too much for current technology to contain. The shutoff valves and safety measures were only built for thousands of psi at best. There is no known device to cap a well with such an ultra high pressure.
<snip>
A methane bubble this large -- if able to escape from under the ocean floor through fissures, cracks and fault areas -- is likely to cause a gas explosion. With the emerging evidence of fissures, the tacit fear now is this: the methane bubble may rupture the seabed and may then erupt with an explosion within the Gulf of Mexico waters. The bubble is likely to explode upwards propelled by more than 50,000 psi of pressure, bursting through the cracks and fissures of the sea floor, fracturing and rupturing miles of ocean bottom with a single extreme explosion.
<snip>
If the toxic gas bubble explodes, it might simultaneously set off a tsunami travelling at a high speed of hundreds of miles per hour. Florida might be most exposed to the fury of a tsunami wave. The entire Gulf coastline would be vulnerable, if the tsunami is manifest. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and southern region of Georgia might experience the effects of the tsunami according to some sources.

[Hawkowl]

59. Yikes!

I've been wondering about this issue ever since the blowout happened. I remember watching some nature documentary that detailed the enormous frozen methane deposits beneath the oceans' floors. It has been hypothesized that periodic methane eruptions in the Gulf are behind the Bermuda triangle disappearances.

This would explain why blowing up the well would be a very, very, bad idea.

[MattSh]

39. American Psychosis - Chris Hedges

Posted elsewhere on DU, but quite appropriate here too...

The tantalizing illusions offered by our consumer culture, however, are vanishing for most citizens as we head toward collapse. The ability of the corporate state to pacify the country by extending credit and providing cheap manufactured goods to the masses is gone. The jobs we are shedding are not coming back, as the White House economist Lawrence Summers tacitly acknowledges when he talks of a “jobless recovery.” The belief that democracy lies in the choice between competing brands and the accumulation of vast sums of personal wealth at the expense of others is exposed as a fraud. Freedom can no longer be conflated with the free market. The travails of the poor are rapidly becoming the travails of the middle class, especially as unemployment insurance runs out. And class warfare, once buried under the happy illusion that we were all going to enter an age of prosperity with unfettered capitalism, is returning with a vengeance.

America is sinking under trillions in debt it can never repay and stays afloat by frantically selling about $2 billion in Treasury bonds a day to the Chinese. It saw 2.8 million people lose their homes in 2009 to foreclosure or bank repossessions – nearly 8,000 people a day – and stands idle as they are joined by another 2.4 million people this year. It refuses to prosecute the Bush administration for obvious war crimes, including the use of torture, and sees no reason to dismantle Bush’s secrecy laws or restore habeas corpus. Its infrastructure is crumbling. Deficits are pushing individual states to bankruptcy and forcing the closure of everything from schools to parks. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which have squandered trillions of dollars, appear endless. There are 50 million Americans in real poverty and tens of millions of Americans in a category called “near poverty.” One in eight Americans – and one in four children – depend on food stamps to eat. And yet, in the midst of it all, we continue to be a country consumed by happy talk and happy thoughts. We continue to embrace the illusion of inevitable progress, personal success and rising prosperity. Reality is not considered an impediment to desire.

When a culture lives within an illusion it perpetuates a state of permanent infantilism or childishness. As the gap widens between the illusion and reality, as we suddenly grasp that it is our home being foreclosed or our job that is not coming back, we react like children. We scream and yell for a savior, someone who promises us revenge, moral renewal and new glory. It is not a new story. A furious and sustained backlash by a betrayed and angry populace, one unprepared intellectually, emotionally and psychologically for collapse, will sweep aside the Democrats and most of the Republicans and will usher America into a new dark age. It was the economic collapse in Yugoslavia that gave us Slobodan Milosevic. It was the Weimar Republic that vomited up Adolf Hitler. And it was the breakdown in Tsarist Russia that opened the door for Lenin and the Bolsheviks. A cabal of proto-fascist misfits, from Christian demagogues to loudmouth talk show hosts, whom we naïvely dismiss as buffoons, will find a following with promises of revenge and moral renewal. And as in all totalitarian societies, those who do not pay fealty to the illusions imposed by the state become the outcasts, the persecuted.

The decline of American empire began long before the current economic meltdown or the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It began before the first Gulf War or Ronald Reagan. It began when we shifted, in the words of Harvard historian Charles Maier, from an “empire of production” to an “empire of consumption.” By the end of the Vietnam War, when the costs of the war ate away at Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society and domestic oil production began its steady, inexorable decline, we saw our country transformed from one that primarily produced to one that primarily consumed. We started borrowing to maintain a level of consumption as well as an empire we could no longer afford. We began to use force, especially in the Middle East, to feed our insatiable thirst for cheap oil. We substituted the illusion of growth and prosperity for real growth and prosperity. The bill is now due. America’s most dangerous enemies are not Islamic radicals but those who sold us the perverted ideology of free-market capitalism and globalization. They have dynamited the very foundations of our society. In the 17th century these speculators would have been hung. Today they run the government and consume billions in taxpayer subsidies.

complete story here... https://www.adbusters.org/magazine/90/hedges-american-psychosis.html

[DemReadingDU]

41. How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6

6/23/10 How HFT Quote Stuffing Caused The Market Crash Of May 6, And Threatens To Destroy The Entire Market At Any Moment

Even as the idiots at the SEC mope about cluelessly, confirming they deserve not one cent of taxpayer money to fund their massively overbloated budget, and should all be summarily fired to collect tarballs in the Gulf of Mexico (and soon Maine), our friends at Nanex have conducted an exhaustive analysis (must read for everybody concerned about market structure), in which they identify the various parties responsible for the market crash, and, drumroll please, High Frequency Trading stands at the pinnacle of culprits for the 1,000 point Dow drop.

From their findings: "While analyzing HFT (High Frequency Trading) quote counts, we were shocked to find cases where one exchange was sending an extremely high number of quotes for one stock in a single second: as high as 5,000 quotes in 1 second! During May 6, there were hundreds of times that a single stock had over 1,000 quotes from one exchange in a single second. Even more disturbing, there doesn't seem to be any economic justification for this. In many of the cases, the bid/offer is well outside the National Best Bid/Offer (NBBO).

We decided to analyze a handful of these cases in detail and graphed the sequential bid/offers to better understand them. What we discovered was a manipulative device with destabilizing effect." In other words: enough with all the bullshit about HFT as a liquidity provider mechanism: in reality this is just a facade for the most insidious, computerized market manipulative device ever created. Nanex' conclusion: "What benefit could there be to whomever is generating these extremely high quote rates? After thoughtful analysis, we can only think of one.

Competition between HFT systems today has reached the point where microseconds matter. Any edge one has to process information faster than a competitor makes all the difference in this game. If you could generate a large number of quotes that your competitors have to process, but you can ignore since you generated them, you gain valuable processing time. This is an extremely disturbing development, because as more HFT systems start doing this, it is only a matter of time before quote-stuffing shuts down the entire market from congestion. We think it played an active role in the final drop on 5/6/2010, and urge everyone involved to take a look at what is going on. Our recommendation for a simple 50ms quote expiration rule would eliminate quote-stuffing and level the playing field without impacting legitimate trading."

We present the Nanex' full report (please focus particularly on Part 4 and the provided evidence) and urge all readers, as we have many times before, to end all stock trading activities immediately (which at the macro level are nothing but a reflection of the EURJPY trade anyway) until such time as the SEC, CFTC, Finra, and every other corrupt and captured agency finally does something about the HFT menace. Doing nothing is merely inviting certain disaster yet again, and a guaranteed market crash, which next time wipe out the entire market permanently and destroy all confidence in US capital markets in perpetuity.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/how-hft-quote-stuffing-caused-market-crash-may-6-and-threatens-destroy-entire-market-any-mom

Analysis of the "Flash Crash"
Date of Event: 20100506
Complete Text
http://www.nanex.net/20100506/FlashCrashAnalysis_CompleteText.html

[florida08]

47. yes

and prior to this there were bankers stealing his employer's source code software that was used to make the HFT's.


When Sergey Aleynikov, the Goldman Sachs computer programmer, was arrested in July, the authorities said the software at issue could “manipulate markets in unfair ways.”

According to Agrawal’s complaint, the code at issue “uses a number of sophisticated mathematical formulas, or algorithms, to make decisions about, among other things, the volume, price and timing of trades that are made by the trading system. The trades made using the trading system typically generate millions of dollars of profits per year for the financial institution.”

In both prosecutions, the authorities said the defendants had wanted the code for their own financial benefit. When Agrawal resigned from the Paris-based bank’s New York offices, he allegedly told his employer he wanted to move back to India and begin his own high-frequency trading fund.

Read More http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2010/04/bankerarrested/#ixzz0rmcyY6Fm

High Frequency Trading is a scam
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1259-High-Frequency-Trading-Is-A-Scam.html

[Roland99]

48. Triple digits down

nearing 10k again. Oil still above $75.

[ozymandius]

49. still hovering at lows

10:39
Dow 10,194.97 103.47 (1.00%)
Nasdaq 2,226.49 27.74 (1.23%)
S&P 500 1,078.14 13.90 (1.27%)
10-Yr Bond 3.09% 0.30

11:30 am : Stocks are stuck at session lows. Utilities seem to be the only sector that is able to garner any kind of support. In turn, utilities stocks are up a collective 0.3%, while the broader market is down more than 1%.

This session's selloff marks the stock market's fourth consecutive slide. During that time the S&P 500 has given up 3.5%. Still, that stock market had an even worse four-session performance at the beginning of the month, when the stock market fell more than 3% on June 4. DJ30 -104.68 NASDAQ -29.14 SP500 -13.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 614/694 mln/1830 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 593/361 mln/2282

11:00 am : Stocks have chopped their way to fresh session lows amid deepening weakness.

Losses are worst among consumer discretionary stocks, which are down 2.1% as a group. Retailers, in particular, are in rough shape as they plummet to a 2.7% loss. Department stores J.C. Penney (JCP 23.19, -1.47), Macy's (M 18.98, -1.11), and Nordstrom (JWN 35.44, -1.40) are in some of the worst shape. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 39.77, -1.69) is also under sharp pressure after the company issued downside guidance that overshadowed a positive earnings surprise for the latest quarter. Even upgrades by analysts at Oppenheimer on names like Aeropostale (ARO 29.39, -0.49), J. Crew Group (JCG 28.57, -1.69), and TJX Co's (TJX 44.09, -0.62) have failed to provide the space with support. DJ30 -113.37 NASDAQ -30.24 SP500 -14.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 549/580 mln/1869 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 535/300 mln/2299

[Festivito]

50. Debt: 06/22/2010 13,046,652,647,591.81 (UP 6,599,131,829.63) (Tue)

(Down a little. Good day.)
From San Francisco today. Oh, the partying that lasts until 5 AM ET! Yikes!
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,559,070,797,212.77 + 4,487,581,850,379.04
DOWN 64,399,407.68 + UP 6,663,531,237.31

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,230.74 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,526,885 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,150.31.
A family of three owes $126,450.92. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 2,675,263,920.70.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,961,860,208.51.
The average for the last 32 days would be 1,839,243,945.48.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 181 reports in 265 days of FY2010 averaging 6.28B$ per report, 4.29B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 943 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/22/2010 13,046,652,647,591.81 BHO (UP 2,419,775,598,678.73 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,136,823,644,080.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,565,813,698,449.95 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----

-13,708,361,516.73 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4438701&mesg_id=4438782

[Festivito]

63. Debt: 06/23/2010 13,041,849,923,645.94 (DOWN 4,802,723,945.87) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,559,676,754,753.46 + 4,482,173,168,892.48
UP 605,957,540.69 + DOWN 5,408,681,486.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,230.67 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,533,531 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,133.88.
A family of three owes $126,401.65. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,350,134,013.45.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,801,769,410.31.
The average for the last 33 days would be 1,637,972,191.19.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 182 reports in 266 days of FY2010 averaging 6.22B$ per report, 4.26B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 942 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.3 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/23/2010 13,041,849,923,645.94 BHO (UP 2,414,972,874,732.86 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,132,020,920,134.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,553,336,976,875.88 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********
06/17/2010 -040,132,025,764.65 -
06/18/2010 +000,218,467,463.90 ------------********
06/21/2010 -000,091,646,713.41 ---- Mon
06/22/2010 -000,064,399,407.68 ----
06/23/2010 +000,605,957,540.69 ------------********

-13,625,575,709.65 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4440193&mesg_id=4440572

[AnneD]

52. Reguarding today's toon.....

Didn't the scare crow need a brain????? I think he still does.

AnneD who will think more clearly once the Soma kicks in because Damitol was not strong enough.

[TalkingDog]

56. He needed a brain, yet the Wizard convinced him a diploma would do.

How's that for a jam-packed, yet telling analogy?

[Demeter]

57. Well, It's 3PM, They Can Start Pumping Up the Bubble Again

(maybe)

[TalkingDog]

58. End of the day: Not so much......

a collapse as


slowly leaking balloons of hope.......

[Demeter]

60. A Kinder, Gentler Decline