Study: Well most likely spewing more than 1M gallons of oil a day

[Lone_Star_Dem]

Source: Washington Post

The Deepwater Horizon well has most likely spewed 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day, more than previously estimated, according to a group of scientists appointed by the federal government to study video of the dark geyser at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

The new estimate suggests that, if the flow has been more or less consistent since the April 20 blowout, approximately 1.3 million to 1.5 million barrels, or 53.6 million to 64.3 million gallons, of oil have emerged from the well. That is roughly five to six times the amount spilled in Alaskan waters in 1989 by the Exxon Valdez.

Much of the oil flowing into the gulf has been skimmed, burned, or dispersed with chemicals, and the well is now capped and partially contained, with 15,800 barrels siphoned to a ship at the surface on Wednesday. But the new figures, obtained Thursday by The Washington Post and soon to be officially announced by the U.S. Geological Survey, indicate that early estimates of the flow rate by the federal government and oil giant BP were not even close to the mark.

Last month, with the government sticking to an estimate of 5,000 barrels a day, and independent scientists arguing that the amount had to be much higher, national incident commander Adm. Thad Allen appointed the Flow Rate Technical Group to come up with a better estimate.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/10/AR2010061003683.html?hpid=topnews

[Xipe Totec]

1. more than previously admitted

that estimate of 25,000 to 30,000 barrels was made a while ago and rejected by BP and the Coast Guard.

[xchrom]

2. Quelle shock & awe. Nt

[AndyA]

3. Good Lord.

Somehow, deep down inside, we know this has got to be much worse than they're telling us. :(

I feel the so sad for the little creatures who have no idea what is happening. They are completely innocent, and they will pay the ultimate price.

[Juneboarder]

11. I agree Andy...

those poor sea animals. Ugh...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. from the video it seems like more is coming out now than before?

the containment doesn't seem to be containing it.

[Lerkfish]

5. actually, I don't think its a containment but a siphoning

they are pulling oil out of the flow, or harvesting it if you will, but are not stopping or hindering the flow otherwise.

[saigon68]

28. They are just Liars BP Admiral Landry and the Coast Guard Catamites of big oil

[Lerkfish]

6. that still means, even at best, that 10 to 15K barrels are still flowing out of the well

which, even capped, or more properly siphoned, is much larger than the original PR estimate of 5K.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

8. Oh, yes. BP has to address this in the article and I have to say they did it poorly

BP spokesman Andrew Gowers said Thursday by e-mail, "There is no secret about this. It was our contribution to the Unified Command estimate that was published shortly afterwards. We have always said we made a contribution to that estimate but that it was an estimate by the Unified Command."

As far as I am aware, the only agency/entity involved in said "Unified Command" at the time that was allowed access to any information regarding the volume of the spill was BP. Who passed their mid-low-high (1,063/5,758/14,266bpd) estimates to the Coast Guard who released the mid-level one as being probable. And at that same time BP was still saying they estimated it at 1,000bpd knowing that was false.

[leveymg]

7. Even this is a gross underestimate. More like 60-80K bbls/day

was the estimate among independent experts and academics.

[readmoreoften]

10. That is the number the govt and BP were suppressing. /nt

[Turbineguy]

9. This is likely a reasonable number

as a well that size would produce about that amount. For some this may seem a low number. It means that BP will not be as damaged as some might hope for. In the end you can pick some fantasy number and spend years in court proving it or you can pick a reasonable number that the parties can agree on and sort this thing out and settle it. 30,000 bpd will amount to a $33 million per day fine (just over $1.6 billion right now) with an additional $3200 per barrel washed ashore. That will probably be between 5 and 10% of the oil released at the well (that's another $1/2 billion).

This will be in addition to costs of cleanup and whatever other claims come their way.

It's better to put this to bed early, get the well closed, get the mess cleaned up and get the payments to those entitled and have BP spend money improving their operation rather than spend it on a lengthy and expensive court battle (and then do like Exxon and wiggle out of it).

[leveymg]

12. With a $1000-$3000/bbl fine, the difference between 16,000 and 80,000 bbl/day is immense

No, this issue is too important to put to bed.

[wordpix]

15. Oil Spill Fines Could Be $4.7 Billion

http://www.sentinelsource.com/articles/2010/06/07/news/national/free/id_402735.txt

Oil spill fines could be $4.7 B

By Les Blumenthal
McClatchy News Service

Published: Monday, June 07, 2010

WASHINGTON — If the Obama administration is serious about holding BP and others responsible for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, it can start with the federal Clean Water Act, which could allow the federal government to collect as much as $4.7 billion in civil fines just for the oil that’s spilled so far.

Even if the courts allow the fines, however, there are no guarantees that the money would go to the cleanup and economic recovery of the Gulf Coast, according to legal experts.

Though other laws could come into play, the Clean Water Act may provide the best avenue for legal action. After the1989 Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, the law was beefed up to include harsh civil and criminal penalties for oil spills.

Since 1985, one general discharge permit has covered all offshore oil operations in the Gulf; individual site-by-site discharge permits aren’t issued. A company that wants to operate in the Gulf applies for coverage under the general permit.

The permit covers everything from drilling fluids to bilge water, but there are only passing references to oil discharges such as those in a spill. The permit bars the discharge of “free oil,” but its emphasis is on other pollutants.

Even so, the permit could become the underpinning for lawsuits because, among other things, it bars discharges of benzene, naphthalene, arsenic, mercury and other toxic chemicals that could be found in the crude oil.
more

[alp227]

13. Toughen the moratorium. NOW.

Even "safe drilling" might turn the ocean into a grease pit with the slightest screwup. For every disaster, consequences can be the worst.

[Aaria]

14. One of the main problems with this is that it's under much....

much more pressure then what they have dealt with before. The smallest amount I have read is above 5000 PSI.
They have no idea how to contain it or catch it at that rate. Besides oil and gas coming out of the bore hole there is sand and gravel. So now you have the blasting action working on the core and the pipe, with in weeks, and that's being generous there's not going to be a pipe left. IF you had seen the video before this latest attempt to catch some of the oil you will remember the big donut on the sea floor around the bent over pipe, there was a seam in that donut that was leaking oil just like the pipe. That can only mean that the pipe is breached down below and is escaping, how the hell do ya fix that?

[SammyWinstonJack]

22. "How the hell do ya fix that?" I'm sure BP doesn't know the answer.

:grr:

[BrentWil]

16. New Estimates Double Rate of Oil That Flowed Into Gulf

Source: THe New York Times

A government panel on Thursday doubled its estimate of the amount of oil that had gushed for weeks from the out-of-control BP well even before the latest attempt to cap it.

The new calculation suggested that an amount of oil equivalent to the Exxon Valdez disaster could have been flowing into the Gulf of Mexico every 8 to 10 days.

This assessment, based on measurements taken before BP cut the riser pipe of the leaking well on June 3 to cap some of the flow, showed that approximately 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil could have been gushing into the Gulf each day. That is far above the previous estimate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.

Scientists say the flow rate could actually be greater now because they believe that cutting the riser to position the cap pipe may have only increased the flow of the oil and gas mixture. The same governmental panel said that it would be another few days until it would be able to estimate the current flow rate.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/us/11spill.html?hp

[Gregin Orlando]

17. BP and their corporate whore media have been lying

BP and their whores in the corporate media have been lying since day one about the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf. First of all there are three leaks, not one, at the Deepwater Horizon site. Secondly, satellite imagery shows that are two other leaks at different sites. Thirdly, the damages will go far beyond fouled beaches and dead marine life. There are nuclear and coal-fired power plants that rely on clean Gulf water for cooling. There are also desalinization plants that use reverse osmosis to convert seawater into drinking for residents in Florida and other Gulf states. If oil clogs these intakes, then the economic damages will be far beyond anything people have been told. For more information, check out this article: http://www.examiner.com/x-38220-Orlando-Independent-Examiner~y2010m6d9-Satellite-imagery-shows-up-to-three-oil-leaks-in-Gulf-FL-power-and-water-supplies-may-be-at-risk

[paparush]

18. Criminals. Fucking criminals. Both BP and the asshats at MMS.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

19. Double the original estimate, or double the most recent doubled estimate?

I really hate when they underestimate to begin with. By the time they get around to reporting a believable statistic, everyone is so desensitized by all the revisions that nobody cares anymore.

[PSPS]

20. I think that's the idea

I think they're doing this to condition us to the true scope of this horror. I've also seen media with quotes from officials that contained the phrase, "maybe by Christmas." They're pushing out the time line now. We've also learned that this field is leaking in several places. If the mantle is cracked, no "relief well" will stop this and the field will have to run dry.

What would such a scenario mean? No fish, no plankton, no breathable air in our atmosphere.

[G_j]

21. BP Oil-Leak Estimate Doubled by U.S. Flow-Rate Science Panel

Source: Bloomberg

BP Oil-Leak Estimate Doubled by U.S. Flow-Rate Science Panel

By Jessica Resnick-Ault


June 11 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc’s damaged well in the Gulf of Mexico has been leaking twice as much oil as previously estimated, a team of government scientists said in its latest report on the size of the worst spill in U.S. history.

The well is gushing 20,000 to 40,000 barrels of oil a day, according to an estimate released yesterday by the scientists, tasked by the government with calculating the flow. On May 27, the group pegged the rate at 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day.

The latest figure is for the size of the leak prior to June 3, when BP sawed off a bent riser pipe, potentially increasing the amount of crude escaping by as much as 20 percent. The scientists don’t have a projection for the current flow, Marcia McNutt, director of the U.S. Geological Survey, said in a news conference yesterday.

“Our scientific analysis is still a work in progress, as you can tell from a range of estimates,” said McNutt, who is overseeing several independent flow-rate teams using different methods. Two offered revised flow models which were higher than those presented two weeks ago, she said. Another two are revising their data and will deliver their figures by the end of the month.

Preliminary figures from a team of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution scientists suggest the well could be leaking as much as 50,000 barrels a day, McNutt said.

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=a0uIOSekfLIo

[superconnected]

23. At what point in this will what they release to the news, not end up a big lie?

Seems like the lies are still flowing.

[Ignis]

24. ...

[golfguru]

25. What shocks me the most about this oil gusher...

is how much freaking oil is out there! It is spewing out
25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil non-stop WITHOUT PUMPING,
WITHOUT INJECTING PRESSURE FROM OUTSIDE into the reservoir.

Then I am thinking about all the hundreds of thousands of
square miles of ocean out there, and wondering how much more
oil is out there. Also most of Siberia is unexplored. Also
vast areas in Africa, Australia, South America, Asia are
yet to be explored.

Even United States & Canada has reservoirs of oil which are
not drilled for environmental concerns.

Our planet is awash in oil!!

[w4rma]

26. One cannot infer that the world is awash with oil just because one smallish section of the earth is

vomiting oil everywhere.

[golfguru]

27. Can't assume either ways!

We just don't know how much there is.