STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 24 March

[ozymandius]

Wednesday March 24, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 305
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 103 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 156 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 369
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 851
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 23, 2004

Dow... 10,063.64 -1.11 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq... 1,901.80 -8.10 (-0.42%)
S&P 500... 1,093.95 -1.45 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.71% -0.01 (-0.35%)
Gold future... 420.00 +2.40 (+0.57%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.25 Change +0.40 (+0.46%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/103120/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis&dia=2432004

Insights

The USD has been soft for several days now, but still the central reference for broad US Dollar status, the EUR, has remained range bound. Something has to give, and later today would appear a high risk period.

Friday is a big day for economic data, but today we get Durable Goods Orders and new home sales. The durable goods orders could start the market moving again. The last result down 2.3% was unexpected and the market is looking for a positive bounce back to around 1%. If the data disappoints below here confirming a renewed softening then a broad based USD decline would become an imminent risk.

The preferred scenario is one more USD rally before the major down-trend again sets in.

In Japan it just gets more interesting. As the market threatens to break for another test of 105, a crucial level, intervention and rhetoric are increasing yet again. Suggest even significant intervention will only produce a short lived bounce however. Having tried to corner the market and lost, the BoJ even with parliamentary support is in deep trouble.

Technically once 105 gives way the target 96.50 could be achieved quite quickly, and the risk is for a snow balling collapse to much lower levels.

other news:

http://www.sltrib.com/2004/Mar/03242004/business/150565.asp

More Utahns fall behind on payments

The number of Utahns behind on their credit-card payments rose in December to 2.55 percent of all accounts, up from just 1.15 in September, the American Bankers Association reported Tuesday.

Nationally, the credit-card delinquency rates also increased, to 4.43 percent by the end of the fourth quarter, up from 4.09 percent at the end of the third quarter.

The rise in the percentage of credit-card accounts that are 30 or more days past due reflects the fact that some families are still struggling with unemployment and using credit cards to get by, the association said.

"Clearly, the improving economy has not yet touched all individuals, particularly those who continue to look for work and may be relying on credit cards to meet their daily living expenses.," James Chessen, the association's chief economist, said in a statement.

<snip>

December marked the end of the third year of economic downturn for Utah, which makes a jump in credit-card and mortgage delinquencies in the last part of last year no surprise, said Mark Knold, senior economist at the Utah Department of Workforce Services.

...more...

http://www.latimes.com/business/careers/work/la-me-vnlayoffs24mar24,1,2274543.story?coll=la-headlines-business-careers

Layoffs Loom for Ventura County Staff

Up to 600 Ventura County government workers could lose their jobs this summer if the state follows through on plans to shift local funding to Sacramento, County Executive Officer Johnny Johnston said Tuesday.

Johnston came up with the layoff estimate after spending three days in the Capitol last week urging Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators to keep local revenues intact.

<snip>

County department managers in coming weeks will outline what services must be reduced or eliminated as a result of the impending cuts. Managers will likely begin identifying those workers to be laid off in late May, Johnston said.

...more...

Great Winged Monkeys, Ozy! LOL!

Looks like the February PPI is mired in goo somewhere in the bowels of the BoL building:

http://www.bls.gov/ppi/delaynotice.htm

Status of February 2004 Producer Price Index

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not yet scheduled a revised release date for the February 2004 Producer Price Index (PPI), originally scheduled for March 12, 2004. When a revised release date is determined, it will be announced at least one day ahead of time on this web page and through a news advisory.

The release of the PPI for January 2004, originally scheduled for February 19, was delayed to March 18.

These delays were caused by unexpected difficulties in the conversion of PPI data from the Standard Industrial Classification system to the North American Industry Classification System.

BLS expresses its sincere apologies to those who have experienced any problems as a result of these delays.

Last Modified Date: March 22, 2004

The Durable Goods Report is due at 8:30 EST and the New Home Sales Report at 10:00 EST.

We will see if we need new undies today from Victoria's Secret :D

Have a Great Day, Marketeers! :hi:

[54anickel]

6. Uh-oh, that Insights snip from fxstreet is troublesome

Technically once 105 gives way the target 96.50 could be achieved quite quickly, and the risk is for a snow balling collapse to much lower levels.

YIKES! :scared:

The preferred scenario is one more USD rally before the major down-trend again sets in.

I'm in that preferred scenario corner - probably just wishful thinking though. B-) (color these shades rose)

[54anickel]

7. Maybe we should start a pool for the release of Feb PPI?

I'm thinking April 1st would be the most appropriate date for such a bogus report. :evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

8. haha! Excellent idea!

I'm in for $10 on April 1!

Julie

[54anickel]

25. Looks like Russia kicked in a few bucks to support the US$ again

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20040324111402.shtml

RBC, 24.03.2004, Moscow 11:14:02.The trade volume was large at this morning's special session at the UTS. After the first 20 minutes of trading it exceeded $35m. Export revenues make up the major part of dollar offers. The situation was the same yesterday. The trade volume was over $450m at the close. Commercial bank dealers believe that the Russian Central Bank bought about $400m to prevent the ruble from strengthening.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

"Divergences: What They Can Tell Us About Abrupt Changes in the Character of the Markets"

Everyone who has been through a few major changes in market trends knows that in order for a major trend change to take place, the prevailing "character" of market must have changed prior to the change in trend. In fact, it is the change in character which causes the change in trend. We can always tell that a major change in trend has taken place after support levels that correspond to the previous trend are broken. One of the nightmares that investors/traders occasionally experience is when they take positions as the market approaches a level that represents major support/resistance of the previous trend, under the belief that the previous trend is still intact. The implication of such belief, and expectation there from, is that the market will act in the same way it has acted previously, when contact with the same support/resistance levels was made. However, if the character of the market has undergone a material change, then the level that was expected to act as support/resistance doesn't, resulting in losses. When the trend-line that had defined the previous trend is violated, and then begins to act in an opposite manner than previously (support becomes resistance, and vice-versa), then we know that the trend has changed, and thus we conclude that the character of the market has changed as well. However, the realization that such change has taken place--after the fact--doesn't bring back the losses which incurred due to the "positioning" that was based upon our false assumption regarding the prevailing trend and market character. One of the most common reasons behind investors' and traders' wrong assumption is due to the fact that in most cases, the market tends to change character in a manner that makes the actual change undetected while it is taking place in real time, thus, we find out about it after the fact through the way it manifests itself--a trend-line that had defined the previous trend is violated--and then it begins to act in an opposite manner than previously (support becomes resistance, and vice-versa).

<cut>
So, is there a way individual investors/traders can directly detect a change in the character of the market --in real time--with the indicators that are currently available? Based upon my observations as a student of the markets for the past fifteen years, I have come to the conclusion that sometimes individual investors/traders can successfully detect such change, maybe not in real time, but certainly before the fact, before the character change manifests itself as a violation of the support/resistance levels that had defined the previous trend.

<cut>
In summary, this week we should get some very important clues regarding whether the bull is still in charge or the bear has quietly taken over. If the indices continue to decline, and they close below support, despite all the positive divergences, then we must seriously consider the possibility that the cyclical bull is over and thus, we ought to be shorting rallies instead of buying dips.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Not going to be around much today.

My son is starting daycare today. I must deliver him at 9am so this will drmatically cut into the time I spend on the thread three days out of the week. I will check in as time allows.

In any event, I wish you a wonderful day Marketeers!

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

4. Bye Ozy, hope you can check back later. If not have a great day!

And I didn't even get the chance to say
Good Morning Ozy. :donut:

[54anickel]

5. Anyone catch this LBN thread on China storming out of the talks

on human rights that Robbien posted?

Sheesh, Shrub is such an idiot!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x440883

[JNelson6563]

9. Didn't see thread but heard story

Seems Team Bush's cowboy-tough guy approach to foreign policy has offended yet another country.

Truly the epitome of a dumb-ass.

Julie

[54anickel]

13. Pessimism warning!

How much more degradation of foreign policy can the US stand before we reach the point of no return? Shrub seems quite capable of one thing, and that is creating huge amounts of animosity, no hatred, toward this once great nation on a daily basis.

November just seems further away with each passing day. I wonder if we will ever get to see it come to pass. At this rate, we'll be lucky to even have an election. :cry:

[54anickel]

10. Eurozone interest rate futures jump

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1079419885788

snip>
The June Euribor contract hit a nine-month high after Guy Quaden, member of the ECB's governing council, said the Bank had room for manoeuvre on monetary policy. Mr Quaden said in an interview the ECB would review its policy if consumer spending failed to recover. Prices for interest rate futures rise when rate expectations fall.

The comments followed an interview with Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, on Tuesday in which he said: "In case our expectations for strong household consumption and overall domestic demand were not to materialise, we would work out our assessment accordingly, fully in line with our strategy."

Friday's Ifo survey on German business sentiment will be crucial to market expectations on interest rates. A growing number of analysts think a significant fall in the March reading of the index could sway the ECB to loosen monetary policy.

[UpInArms]

12. the dollar seemed to spike on that news

Last trade 88.52 Change +0.67 (+0.76%)

I'll be checking out in about 20 minutes - won't be near the 'puter for most of the day.

:hi:

[54anickel]

14. Ack! NOOOoo, you can't leave today! Look at those future charts!

[UpInArms]

17. ah, the joys of being

"self-employed" :D

Today I am a concrete finisher --- EEEEKKKKK!!!!



(picture "borrowed" for emphasis only :D )

and when we (my hubby and I) are done, we shall be in traction for a few days :)

[54anickel]

18. Heh-heh! Just think -

you can be reminded of ShrubCo all day long while sloppin' in the mud.
:evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

11. Mornin' Marketeers!

This could be an interesting day, eh? Of course they all have that potential but with $$ news coming out soon along with what's passed under the bridge (EU judgement re: Microsoft), well it's got some special potential. ;-)

Great 'toon BTW!! Their reaction to all criticism is so predictable and routine I can't believe they have any credibility! Ugh.

Will check back in a bit. Hope it's all good with you fellow Marketeers! :hi:

Julie

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. Feb. durable-goods orders soar 2.5%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38070.3543981481-813155573&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Demand for U.S.-made durable goods soared 2.5 percent in February, nearly reversing the downwardly revised 2.7 percent drop in January, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The increase was the fourth in the past six months. Durable-goods orders are up 8 percent year-to-date. Economists were expecting an increase of 1.7 percent in February, according to the survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

16. Phew! Futures seem to like that bit of info.

[JNelson6563]

19. And if we're lucky

A large corporation will announce mass-lay-offs and we can all make a fortune off the lemmings on the Street!

BTW, anybody know who bought the planes that made today's numbers nice and shiney?

Julie

[54anickel]

20. Ha! I'll look to see what I can find. Meanwhile, futures are dipping

again. Here's the blather, seems there's no pleasing the markets these days :shrug:

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures indications dip to their morning lows on the heels of the better than expected Durable Orders report that included negative revisions for the last month. S&P futures dip 0.8 points to 2.5 points below fair value; Nasdaq futures dip 3 points to 3 below fair value. Accordingly, the futures market is pointing to a lower open for the cash market.

[KoKo]

28. Here's a little on "Durable Goods Up" for nostalgia....

(Note the date, and the "upbeat" report and compare the numbers then to now.) :crazy:

http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/27/news/economy/durables/

Durable goods orders soar
July orders for goods meant to last longer than three years post biggest jump since October 2001.
August 27, 2002: 11:23 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Demand for durable goods made in U.S. factories soared in July, the government said Tuesday, hinting that the manufacturing sector's recovery resumed with gusto after stalling in June.

The Commerce Department reported that orders for goods made to last three years or longer, such as cars and computers, rose 8.7 percent to $179.7 billion following a revised 4.5 percent drop in June. Economists expected durable goods orders to rise 1.4 percent, according to Briefing.com.

It was the biggest jump for durables since a 9.2 percent gain in October 2001, the month in which economic activity returned more or less to normal following the shock of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Excluding orders for defense goods, new orders jumped 7.3 percent in July, the biggest gain on record. Excluding volatile orders for transportation, new orders rose 3.9 percent.

"The huge rebound in orders shows that, not only did the economy not collapse in June, but it is actually moving ahead at a decent clip," said Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.
http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/27/news/economy/durables/

[54anickel]

33. HA! Sure, I get it! They economy was moving along at such a

blazingly fast clip in the summer of 2002 that it just passed us all right by! That explains it all! Warp speed and into time travel! :crazy:

[54anickel]

21. Durable-Goods Orders Rebound in February

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/8264423.htm

snip>
February's rebound was led by stronger demand for transportation equipment, including cars and airplanes. Orders for those goods jumped by 9.9 percent in February, compared with a 10.5 percent decline in January. Last month's rise was the largest since July 2002.

Orders for computers, communications equipment, machinery and primary metals, which includes steel, all posted gains in February. But orders for fabricated metals and electrical equipment and appliances declined.

Excluding orders for goods from the military, all other durable-goods orders rose by 2 percent in February, after a 2.2 percent decrease the month before. That suggested that capital spending by private companies is improving.

Other recent economic reports indicate that manufacturing activity is picking up. But many plants continue to operate well below full throttle and employment is still weak. Manufacturers cut jobs in February for the 43rd month in a row.

[JCMach1]

23. take out the trans and we are down...

don't forget to mention that...

That and the MS ruling today should keep stocks under pressure.

[54anickel]

24. Thanks JCMach1. Was digging around for a decent report on that.

Just found this article regarding durable goods.

U.S. stocks poised for weak open on attack jitters
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/24/rtr1309997.html

NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set for a flat to weaker open on Wednesday, as persistent worries about potential attacks and the health of the economy offset a stronger-than-expected durable goods report.

New orders for long-lasting factory goods rose more than forecast in February due to strong aircraft demand, but the number declined when transportation was stripped out, the government said.

snip>
However, "the bigger picture is still bearish. The lack of job creation, geopolitical concerns, massive budget deficits and uncertainty about the upcoming election all pose significant risks for U.S. equity markets," Strazzullo cautioned.

Equity futures were little changed after the durable goods data and pointed to a flat to weak open.

snip>
Microsoft Corp. (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people) grabbed headlines, after the European Union slapped the software company with a record fine of 497.2 million euros ($611.8 million) for violating EU antitrust law, and ordered it to take immediate steps to stop harming its rivals.

Shares of Microsoft rose to $24.30 on the INET electronic brokerage, up from their Nasdaq close of $24.15 on Tuesday.

[Bush Pouts]

59. Military hardware

.

[54anickel]

22. GLOBAL MARKETS-Security fears hit stocks, bonds boosted by ECB

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/03/24/rtr1309951.html

LONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - Security fears hit European shares on Wednesday after police investigated a suspicious truck in midtown Manhattan, while renewed expectations for lower European interest rates lifted bonds and hit the euro.

Wall Street looked set to open lower after New York police said the illegally parked truck prompted authorities to evacuate the street around it.

It was later found to be no threat, but rumours about the incident stoked fears in markets that have been on edge over continuing turmoil in Iraq, Middle East violence and the Madrid bombings.

"Investors are very nervous about any geopolitical news that heightens security risks. It triggers immediate selling," said Akber Khan, of the European equities desk at Deutsche Bank.

more...

[54anickel]

26. 9:47 numbers

Dow 10,082.75 +19.11 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,910.73 +8.93 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,095.52 +1.57 (+0.14%)
30-yr Bond 4.651% -0.016

9:45AM: In-line with futures expectations, the cash market is off to a flat to slightly higher open.... The Nasdaq is outperforming its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis, as the Dow and S&P 500 are hugging the flat line... Corporate news are, on balance, positive including upbeat guidance from PMC-Sierra (PMCS 16.30 +0.36), FSI Int (FSII 6.39 +0.39), and Charlotte Russe (CHIC 18.07 +1.21)... The Durable Goods report for February came in better than expected at 2.5% (consensus 1.5%), but was mixed overall as the ex-transportation figure at -0.3% was below expectations...
The New Home Sales report will be released at 10ET and will shed more light on the state of the housing market... This morning, the Mortgage Bankers Index showed a 0.2% rise in applications for the week ended Match 19, while purchases fell 0.8% and refinancings rose 0.1%...

[54anickel]

27. U.S. new home sales rise strongly in February

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/24/rtr1310122.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes surged unexpectedly in February to their highest level since August, a Commerce Department report showed on Wednesday, suggesting the housing market continues to benefit from low interest rates.

Commerce said sales of new homes rose a stronger-than-expected 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted 1.163 million annual pace in February, the fastest rate since August 2003's 1.190 million clip.

January new home purchases were revised lower, however, to a 1.099 million rate from the initially reported 1.106 million pace.

snip>
Compared to February 2003, new home sales were up a hefty 24.4 percent.

[JNelson6563]

29. Watch your eye around those charts!

Lots of sharp pointy things today! My take is that somebody's tryin' real hard to hold the magic line of 10,000. ;-)

10:25


Dow 10,070.90 +7.26 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,911.31 +9.51 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,094.12 +0.17 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 3.697% -0.014


Julie

[JNelson6563]

30. More sharp points

10:46


Dow 10,032.01 -31.63 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,905.60 +3.80 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,089.94 -4.01 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 3.703% -0.008

Anybody else getting sea-sick?

Julie

[54anickel]

35. Dramamine all around please.

:+

[KoKo]

31. 10.48 and diving off a cliff....

Dow 10,038.01 -25.63 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,906.41 +4.61 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,090.82 -3.13 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 3.709% -0.002
NYSE Volume 334,791,000
Nasdaq Volume 486,492,000

[KoKo]

32. Oops Julie, our paths crossed there! Watching them dive!

:D

[phillybri]

34. If the Dow goes below 10,000...

...look out below, this could become a full-scale correction.

[54anickel]

36. 11:06 and it doesn't have much further to go - see if the mystery

big money investor steps in over lunch - but I've got my doubts.

Dow 10,015.79 -47.85 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,897.48 -4.32 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,089.13 -4.82 (-0.44%)
30-yr Bond 4.659% -0.008

NYSE Volume 420,520,000
Nasdaq Volume 584,511,000


11:00AM: The blue-chip averages have slumped to new session lows and into negative territory, while the Nasdaq is faring relatively better... The tech composite underperformed the Dow and the S&P 500 on a relative basis in yesterday's session, as well as on a year-to-date basis... Specifically, the Nasdaq is down 4.9% year-to-date versus losses of 4.0% and 1.9% for the Dow and S&P 500, respectively... Nevertheless, the Nasdaq is exhibiting a notable degree of resilience in today's session supported by gains in the software and semiconductor sectors...
The latter group has led the Nasdaq in its decline in eight of the past nine weeks and its resilience in today's session, particularly in the face of generally lackluster trade, is notable...NYSE Adv/Dec 1225/1693, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1234/1493

[KoKo]

38. PPT comes in and a tandem bounce off the trampoline/NSDAQ/Dow/SP

Interesting to see them all bounce at the same time...

:eyes:

[54anickel]

39. Simultaneous Posts!!

Yeah, it is sort of amazing, isn't it. Big trampoline I guess.

[54anickel]

37. 12:02 and full throttle

Dow 10,086.82 +23.18 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,913.70 +11.90 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 1,096.32 +2.37 (+0.22%)
30-yr Bond 4.657% -0.010

NYSE Volume 622,787,000
Nasdaq Volume 826,086,000

12:00PM: Participants are hesitant to commit to the market in view of its recent inability to rally in the face of favorable corporate news and sizeable declines, with the result being today's volatile session... The Nasdaq has been outperforming its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis throughout the session, in contrast to its relative underperformance over the past two months... Note that the semiconductor sector, which has led the Nasdaq lower in 8 of the past 9 weeks, is rallying today despite the lackluster trade in the broader market, supporting the advance in the tech composite...
Other leaders to the upside include the software, casino & gaming, and retail groups... Among the laggards of note are the gold, steel, aluminum, metal mining, healthcare facilities, and oil & gas services groups... The market remains sensitive to geopolitical unrest, as demonstrated by the fact that a report of a bomb being found on a French rail line sent the major averages to fresh session lows... Despite being jittery, the market is not falling like a rock, which is a welcome development versus the action over the past week...

At the same time, buyers are also showing little conviction, resulting in today's choppy action... This morning's economic reports were favorable, with the Durable Goods report up 2.5% (consensus 1.5%), New Home Sales report at 1163K (consensus 1100K), and the Mortgage Bankers Index showing a 0.2% rise in applications for the week ended Match 19, with purchases falling 0.8% and refinancings rising 0.1%... Elsewhere, the bond market is little changed, with the 10-year note down 3/32, bringing its yield up to 3.70%...

[54anickel]

40. U.S. stocks in volatile trading session

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040324/bf270f2406c102e1775ac99606c91103_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks dipped in and out of positive territory Wednesday as investors weighed a $612 million European Union fine for Microsoft, a confusing picture of the state of the economy from the latest economic data, while anxiety over the tense geopolitical situation persisted.

"Day-to-day we're seeing choppy trade as the market lacks catalysts, and the only catalyst that is going to help the markets is the upcoming earnings season," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist at Ehrenkrantz King Nussbaum.

Hyman said stocks were also suffering from the flight to safety into bonds and gold amid the uncertain geopolitical situation.

On today's economic numbers, Hyman said February durable goods orders were "mixed at best."

"Although the headline number was good, the figure excluding orders for transportation goods suggests the economy is slowing down."

more...

[JNelson6563]

41. 12:28 positve but don't blink!

Dow 10,089.33 +25.69 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,917.27 +15.47 (+0.81%)
S&P 500 1,095.94 +1.99 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 3.705% -0.006

Julie

[54anickel]

42. 12:35 Houston, we have lift-off (but is there enough fuel!)

Dow 10,104.38 +40.74 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,922.11 +20.31 (+1.07%)
S&P 500 1,097.83 +3.88 (+0.35%)
30-yr Bond 4.659% -0.008

12:30PM: The Dow and the Nasdaq have lifted to new session highs since the last update, while the S&P 500 is also trading near its best levels of the session... While the major averages are trading higher, breadth figures are mixed... Decliners are outpacing advancers by a 3-to-2 margin on the NYSE and slightly on the Nasdaq... Down volume is also leading up volume by a 3-to-2 degree on the NYSE, although the opposite is true on the Nasdaq, where up volume is outpacing down volume by a 2-to-1 margin...
The ratio of new 52-week highs to lows is disappointing, with 71 and 37 new highs on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, juxtaposed with 18 and 17 new lows... Volume is running at a slightly heavier total than last week, but roughly in-line with yesterday's levels, which were moderate...NYSE Adv/Dec 1314/1781, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1441/1484

[KoKo]

44. And that "they" had to come in around lunch rather than waiting for "close

to the bell" may mean that the fuel is getting low..;-)

[54anickel]

43. Tech companies flock to IPO market (wunnerful)

http://biz.yahoo.com/deal/040324/techcompaniesflocktoipomarket_2.html

After a long period of dormancy, high-tech companies are once again lining up to test the public market.

But while the recent surge in filings for initial public offerings points to renewed vigor in the technology industry, observers said the recovery is fragile.

"The IPO market is so dependent on the general market," said Sal Morreale, who tracks IPOs for Cantor Fitzgerald LP. "If the stock market keeps going down, it's going to get harder and harder to get an IPO through the pipeline."

snip>
Indeed, despite renewed optimism in the broader technology sector, the market remains volatile. Of the eight tech companies that have gone public this year, five are trading below their offer price. The best performer has been Atheros Communications Inc., a maker of chipsets for wireless networking equipment, up 22% as of Tuesday.

The worst performers have been Chinese technology companies. Linktone Ltd., a Shanghai mobile phone service provider that went public March 4, recently was down 27% from its offer price. Beijing-based TOM Online Inc., which provides content and services through mobile phones, went public a week after Linktone, and its shares are down more than 20% from the offer price. Shares in Semiconductor Manufacturing Inernational Corp., a Shanghai chipmaker, are down 22%.

"China is growing significantly, and it is a huge market," said Tom Taulli, author of "Investing in IPOs" and co-founder of CurrentOfferings.com. "But there are political risks, and Chinese companies may not be used to the stringent rules that public companies in the U.S. must go through."

more...

[54anickel]

45. 1:09 update, then I gotta run...they need Plasma again

Reflecting on today's wrap-up - Changing trends. Has 10,092 now become resistance rather than for the DOW?

Dow 10,083.56 +19.92 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,917.48 +15.68 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 1,095.91 +1.96 (+0.18%)
30-yr Bond 4.664% -0.003

NYSE Volume 798,746,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,052,468,000

12:55PM: Buyers have stepped out of the woodwork, driving the major averages to fresh session highs... The Nasdaq continues to outperform its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis and exhibit an encouraging degree of resilience, with the semiconductor sector leading the advance and infusing more steam into the advance...
The tech composite has rebounded nicely after probing this week's low earlier in the session and is positioned for a more concerted recovery effort, especially given that the short-term indicators are oversold (please refer to The Technical Take, which is available to Briefing.com's Platinum subscribers for more details on the technically-significant levels)... Leaders to the upside are more numerous now and include the software, communications equipment, and transportation sectors... NYSE Adv/Dec 1468/1645, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1573/1381

[JNelson6563]

46. Bye 54! Come back if you can!

1:23 update:


Dow 10,078.75 +15.11 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,916.93 +15.13 (+0.80%)
S&P 500 1,095.47 +1.52 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 3.720% +0.009


Hanging on....

Julie

[Robbien]

47. Story on Retail Insider Trading (they are bailing)

As of the third week of March, insiders at specialty retail companies dumped a near-record $850 million worth of their own stock so far this year. Top managers at Chico's FAS, who are consistently good at coming up with leading fashions for women over 35, have staked out the lead in insider selling, as well. Consider Chico's co-founders Marvin Gralnick and Helen Gralnick -- he’s chairman, and she’s senior vice president for design and concept. Together, the couple sold $23 million in the middle of March for as much as $46.70 per share. All together, Chico's insiders have sold an awesome $40.7 million in stock this quarter. That’s nearly three times the average over the past five years, and there’s still a week left in this quarter to sell more.

Insiders at American Eagle dumped $9.62 million worth so far this year. That’s the most they have sold in a single quarter since the third quarter of 2001, says Kevin Schwenger, an analyst who helps track insider activity at Thomson Financial. American Eagle’s Michael Leedy, vice president in charge of strategic planning, sold over $4 million worth in early March for as much as $24.50 per share. And at Quiksilver, insiders sold $8.55 million, the highest in five years. Quiksilver CEO Robert McKnight Jr. sold $8.3 million worth for as much as $21.44 per share in the middle of March.

snip

Despite what the bulls think, the selling so far this year is anything but normal. Insiders at specialty retail chains dumped $341 million in stock in January and $324 million in February. History clearly shows this is a red flag. Whenever selling goes above $300 million for a quarter, specialty retail stocks are typically a lot lower a few months later.

Bulls argue that insiders are selling in all sectors across the market, so what’s the big deal? Well, it’s much worse at these retailers. The ratio of selling to buying, as tracked by Thomson Financial, stands at 231 to 1 over the past 90 days. That means for every dollar worth of stock purchased, insiders sold $231 worth. That puts specialty retailers in the top 25% of all sectors, ranked by this sell-buy ratio.

The rest of the article is pretty interesting also
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P76850.asp

[54anickel]

54. Thanks for posting Robbien - here's another interesting and logical

bit of a snip.

Why are insiders dumping so aggressively? One reason: Stores are coming up on some tough monthly “comps.” That’s industry jargon for sales gains at stores that have been in business for more than a year (so-called comparable stores).

Here’s the problem: After hunkering down during the buildup to the invasion of Iraq a year ago, consumers went on a shopping spree once the Iraqi regime collapsed and tensions eased. That spree continued into the fall. Soon, retailers will have to beat those records set last year when the consumer bounced back. The crunch should start this summer.

Insiders know very well that their stocks will sell off if they don’t keep beating the comps. Judging by how quickly they’re selling their own shares, it looks like many of them don’t want to take any risks. “These guys are sitting there saying, ‘I know I can’t make my comps, so I am getting out of these stocks now,’” says John LaForge, a portfolio manager at First Albany Asset Management.

[jamesinca]

48. It looks an ending charge

of the Bears

at 3:15
Dow -33.71
Nasdaq +6.94
S&P 500 -4.52

[jamesinca]

49. With 10 min to go

Dow -5.11
Nasdaq +11.21
S&P 500 -1.96

[wasp in a wig]

50. What is the definition

of a stock market crash?

By the looks of the charts the last couple of weeks, it looks like we're headed for an even deeper depression. Speaking of which.. when does a situation qualify as a depression ?

Adult Swim fans ~ the Dow looks like a passed out Coach McGuirk :evilgrin:



Also, big thanks to Ozymandius and those who keep this thread going every week. Great job!

[Zynx]

51. I would define a crash as a period one month or shorter where the market

falls 15% or more in heavy volume. These are rare occurances, so I don't worry about the definition being applied too much.

[Robbien]

53. Welcome to DU Wasp in a Wig, and I echo your thanks

to Ozy and crew for all the great info shared here.

[ozymandius]

56. Thank you very much!

I've been short here the past few days. So kudos are also in order for everyone - especially Julie, 54anickel, UIA and others who keep the thread updated, informative and entertaining.

[54anickel]

52. Hmmm, looks like I'm not the only tapped for a bit of blood

Dow 10,048.23 -15.41 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,909.48 +7.68 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,091.32 -2.63 (-0.24%)
30-yr Bond 4.664% -0.003

NYSE Volume 1,500,999,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,827,063,000

And a side of blather
Close: Participants took their indecisiveness to a whole new level in today's session as the major averages spent the bulk of the session in volatile trade, vacillating around the unchanged line and ultimately not getting very far... The Nasdaq outperformed its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis and its advance was particularly notable in the face of the resilient semiconductor sector, which closed up 2.4%, as indicated by the SOX index ...
Note that the semiconductor group has led the Nasdaq's decline in 8 of the last 9 weeks and the group's resilience was encouraging, particularly in view of the lackluster trade in the broader market... Other leaders to the upside included the storage, casino & gaming, apparel & accessories, and hotel sectors... Among the laggards of note were the gold, oil services, broker dealer, steel, aluminum, managed healthcare, metal mining, and insurance sectors... The market continued to exhibit nervousness in the face of geopolitical issues, as evidenced by the fact that a report of a bomb being found on a French rail line sent the major averages to fresh session lows...

Nevertheless, selling was controlled - a welcome improvement over the action seen over the past several weeks... This morning's economic reports were favorable, with the Durable Goods report up 2.5% (consensus 1.5%), New Home Sales report at 1163K (consensus 1100K), and the Mortgage Bankers Index showing a 0.2% rise in applications for the week ended Match 19, with purchases falling 0.8% and refinancings rising 0.1%... Elsewhere, the bond market pulled back, with the 10-year note closing down 5/32, bringing its yield up to 3.71%...

[KoKo]

55. "Nevertheless, selling was controlled...." ROFL!!!

"Nevertheless, selling was controlled - a welcome improvement over the action seen over the past several weeks..."

[UpInArms]

57. Great Thread today (and everyday) 54anickel!

my broken and battered body has hunkered down before the 'puter to read the day's happenings.

Thanks to all that come and contribute to the SMW! and a Welcome to DU Wasp in a Wig :hi:

:thumbsup:

See you here tomorrow!

[54anickel]

58. Heh-heh! My experience has always been

that the REAL pain doesn't set in until the second day. But I'm one of those out of shape computer potatoes, hopefully your experience will be better.

This may be you the next couple of mornings. :hangover:

PS Thanks, couldn't have pulled it off with all the other contributors today. Thanks to everybody!
:toast:

[Robbien]

60. UPDATE - U.S.'s Snow says businesses will start hiring

Couldn't let this great thread close without posting today's snowjob headline from Snow.

"I'm mighty optimistic about this economy" he says. In other words, hand over your money to the stock market, we've got a lot of rich insiders here who are clammering for your money.

[54anickel]

61. Haha! Had to be a misquote. Think he said

I might be optimistic....

Sorta like old Jeff Foxworthy, Ya might be a redneck lines.