STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 3

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 3, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 2, 2010

Dow... 10,249.54 +225.52 (+2.25%)
Nasdaq... 2,281.07 +58.74 (+2.64%)
S&P 500... 1,098.38 +27.67 (+2.58%)
Gold future... 1,224 +1.30 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.34 -0.01 (-0.27%)
30-Year Bond 3.34 -0.01 (-0.27%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Change May
Briefing.com 60K
Consensus 60K
Prior 32K

08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q1
Briefing.com 3.3%
Consensus 3.3%
Prior 3.6%

08:30 Unit Labor Costs Q1
Briefing.com -1.4%
Consensus -1.6%
Prior -1.6%

08:30 Initial Claims 05/29
Briefing.com 450K
Consensus 455K
Prior 460K

08:30 Continuing Claims 05/22
Briefing.com 4600K
Consensus 4600K
Prior 4607K

10:00 Factory Orders Apr
Briefing.com 2.0%
Consensus 1.7%
Prior 1.3%

10:00 ISM Services May
Briefing.com 55.7
Consensus 55.6
Prior 55.4

11:00 Crude Inventories 05/29
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 2.46M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

18. U.S. May ADP employment up 55,000

U.S. May ADP employment up 55,000
8:15 a.m. Today

[Dr.Phool]

21. Yippee!!!! We're saved!!!

Until the official numbers come out and show a loss, as usual.

[UpInArms]

19. Initial Claims @ 453,000 - last wk rev'd up 3,000

Weekly jobless claims drop 10,000 to 453,000
8:30 a.m. Today

4-week average of claims rises 1,750 to 459,000
8:30 a.m. Today

Continuing claims up 31,000 at 4.67 million
8:30 a.m. Today

Productivity revised lower to 2.8% in 1st quarter
8:30 a.m. Today

[ozymandius]

2. Oil rises above $74 as US crude supplies drop

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $74 a barrel Thursday in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected, suggesting consumer demand is growing.

Crude supplies fell more than expected last week, dropping by 1.4 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said late Wednesday. Analysts had expected an increase of 1 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Inventories of gasoline also fell while distillates rose, the API said.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration is scheduled to announce its supply report later Thursday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Monster U.S. online jobs index up fourth straight month

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A gauge of online demand for labor in the United States rose in May for the fourth straight month to the highest level since November 2008, a private research group said on Thursday.

Monster Worldwide Inc, an online careers and recruiting firm, said its employment index rose to 134 points in May from 133 in April, indicating the demand for labor is strengthening.

The index for May marks the highest year-over-year growth rate since its peak in April 2007, Monster said. In May 2009, the index stood at 118.

The healthcare and social assistance industries saw the strongest rise in online job demand in May, while real estate, the accommodation industry and food services all fell in May, Monster said.

The Monster Employment Index is a monthly analysis based on a selection of corporate career sites and job boards. The margin of error is approximately plus or minus 1 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100603/us_nm/us_usa_economy_monsteremployment

[ozymandius]

8. Largest Consensus Guess Ever For May Payrolls. What Does It Mean?

By James Bianco at The Big Picture:

Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May’s nonfarm payroll number. According to Bloomberg, the current consensus is looking for a gain of 508,000 jobs thanks to an expected hiring of over 300,000 census workers. Consensus data goes back to February 1986 and this is by far the largest estimate ever. The previous record occurred in June 2000 (another census hiring month) when economists estimated a gain of 380,000 jobs (the actual number came in at 231,000 jobs).

All About Census Workers

The confusion this month is largely due to the number of census workers hired. The consensus believes about 300,000 were hired, meaning the number of jobs created ex-census is about 200,000. While this sounds simple enough, a deeper look muddles the issue a bit.

Conclusion – What Does It Mean?

With a record range and a history of huge misses when census workers are involved, how does one intepret May’s payrolls results? This is a good question and we have no answers.

If May estimates are off by hundreds of thousands of jobs, does this rock the markets? Or, does the fact that the range of estimates is over 650,000 jobs mean there is no strong consensus and therefore no strong opinion?

More at link...

[ozymandius]

4. US presses economic powers to adopt 'core' financial rules

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sought to prod the world's economic powers toward a set of common financial rules Wednesday, ahead of a key G20 meeting in South Korea.

Facing a scramble to ensure that competing national rules do not throw up fresh trade barriers, Geithner said he wanted to "accelerate progress on reaching and putting in place global agreements on the core reforms."

The talks are set to include measures to curb the market for exotic derivatives, set new capital requirements for banks and seek more transparency for financial institutions.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100602/pl_afp/financeeconomyg20us

[Demeter]

10. Whose Rules Doesn't Geithner Like?

Anything that queers the globalists' pitch for total domination.....

I am all in favor or trade barriers, personally. If it keeps poisoned dog food and infant formula and lead painted toys out, I'm for it. If it keeps jobs in, even better.

If it makes slave and prison labor unprofitable, then slavery and penal abuses will end.

Barriers are just regulations between friends.

[ozymandius]

14. Geithner probably hates the rules being considered in Switzerland.

See post #13.

[ozymandius]

13. Switzerland's Discontented Lawmakers to Tackle Rules on UBS, Credit Suisse

Switzerland’s disgruntled lawmakers are set to turn against the country’s two largest banks in an unprecedented effort to toughen financial regulation.

During their three-week session that started May 31, lawmakers in Bern probably will approve the handover of thousands of UBS AG account details to the U.S. In turn, they may today ask for measures to restrict bankers’ bonuses and limit lenders’ risk to shield the economy from a future banking collapse, according to comments from politicians, including Social Democrat Christian Levrat.

UBS and Credit Suisse Group AG each have assets of more than 1 trillion Swiss francs ($863 billion), twice the size of the economy and a source of unease for a country that relies on the perception of stability to attract wealthy investors. Lawmakers have stepped up calls for tougher banking rules since UBS in 2008 was forced into a government-led bailout after piling up losses from subprime mortgage investments.

Jean-Pierre Roth, then chairman of the Swiss National Bank, told the government in January 2008 that UBS was in serious trouble because of the U.S. subprime crisis, according to the account given by the panel. On Sept. 21 that year, days after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the SNB and the ministers were told that UBS needed public support “fast,” the committee said.

The lower house is scheduled to discuss the U.S. tax treaty on June 7 as both chambers try to find a compromise. Lawmakers are also scheduled to debate a proposal about the possible breaking up of banks in a crisis situation on the following day.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-03/switzerland-s-discontent-lawmakers-to-tackle-rules-on-ubs-credit-suisse.html

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Cool.

[Demeter]

22. I don't think that's it

I doubt that Geithner cares what the Swiss do to their own bankers.

No, there's something about Goldman, most likely, that has Little Timmy wetting his pants. If that isn't well water left over from his latest immersion....

[ozymandius]

5. World markets up amid US employment hopes

LONDON – World stock markets rallied hard Thursday as investor sentiment was boosted by a strong set of U.S. housing data and hopes about a pickup in the pace of U.S. jobs creation.

In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 index was up 104.61 points, or 2 percent, to 5,255.93, while Germany's DAX rose 106.82 points, or 1.8 percent, to 6,088.02. The CAC 40 index in France rose 90.99 points, or 2.6 percent, to 3,592.49.

Wall Street was also poised to extend Wednesday's gains — Dow futures were up 62 points, or 0.6 percent, at 10,294 while the broader Standard & Poor's 500 futures rose 7.6 points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,104.30.

The key piece of data Thursday will likely be the monthly U.S. private payrolls report from ADP. Investors will be particularly keen to see if it can reinforce recent signals that a jobs recovery of sorts is taking place in the U.S., ahead of the monthly government report on Friday.

The official nonfarm payrolls data often set the tone in stock markets for a week or two after their release. At the moment, the consensus is that the Labor Department will report that nearly 200,000 jobs were created in May.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100603/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

6. BP May Sell Prudhoe Bay Stake to Get Cash as Spill Costs Mount

BP Plc may have to sell some of its most-valued assets, including a stake in the biggest U.S. oil field, to pay cleanup costs, fines and legal damages from the largest offshore spill in U.S. history.

The 26 percent stake in Prudhoe Bay on Alaska’s North Slope and other BP assets could attract suitors such as China National Petroleum Corp., Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Hess Corp., said Douglas Ober, chief executive officer at Petroleum & Resources Corp. in Baltimore, the oldest U.S. oil fund.

“BP is going to have to look to other assets to pay for this mess they’re creating,” said Ober, who oversees a combined $1.6 billion at the fund and Adams Express Co. “They won’t be able to use any of that cash flow to expand production or add to reserves, and that’s really going to put them in a bind.”

BP lost 31 percent of its market value since an April 20 fire in the Gulf of Mexico killed 11 workers, sank a $365 million rig and triggered subsea leaks that have spewed millions of gallons of crude into the Gulf. The company has spent more than $1 billion trying to stanch the leaks and remove oil from the ocean. Ober sold all of his BP stock after 15 refinery workers perished in a 2005 explosion at the company’s Texas City, Texas, plant.

Prudhoe Bay and other Alaskan fields were BP’s largest source of crude in the Western Hemisphere in 2009 after the Gulf of Mexico, according to a public filing. Alaskan fields provided one in every 14 barrels of oil BP pumped worldwide last year. BP operates or own stakes in 20 other fields on the North Slope, as well as four pipelines.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-03/bp-s-alaskan-crown-jewel-may-be-sold-to-finance-cleanup-of-gulf-oil-spill.html

[ozymandius]

11. cartoon

[Demeter]

23. I can see BOTH happening

Sigh. Makes the Condo situation look petty.

[TalkingDog]

29. THAT. IS. AWESOME.

[Dr.Phool]

28. I think Faux News is trying to stir up some phony outrage.

I had lunch and ran some errands with my dad yesterday. As soon as we sat down, the first thing out of his mouth was, "Did you see where that Attorney General is going to try to file civil and criminal charges against BP?" I said yeah.

He then said, "What are they trying to do, bankrupt BP?" I said, I hope so, and I hope their entire Board of Directors winds up in Gitmo. Do you realize how much damage this is causing? Along with their history of unsafe conditions, people being killed in their refineries, and other environmental disasters. Yeah, they should be bankrupt. Not another penny in dividends or bonuses. Too bad for their shareholders, but when you invest in a shit company, you lose when the shit hits the fan.

He kinda realized how stupid he sounded sticking up for BP, and reality set in. I can usually tell when he's been watching Faux, because he's, got some kind of misguided anger spilling out.

[Papa Boule]

31. "Misguided anger"

Yes, they are very good at generating that, aren't they.

[ozymandius]

7. Bear Market Risks Increase to 40%, Scottish Widows Manager Says

The probability of a global bear market for stocks is rising as government-spending cuts risk stifling economic recoveries, the head of international equities at one of Scotland’s biggest fund companies said.

Michael McNaught-Davis, who is responsible for about 11 billion pounds ($15.9 billion) at Scottish Widows Investment Partnership in Edinburgh, estimates there’s a 40 percent chance of an end to the bull market compared with 30 percent a month ago. The MSCI World Index has fallen 10 percent this month amid mounting concern about the ability of governments in Greece and Italy and elsewhere in Europe to reduce record budget deficits.

The MSCI World Index, a gauge of stock performance worldwide, has fallen 15 percent since April 15, when it reached the highest level since September 2008. The euro tumbled about 10 percent against the dollar over the same period, while U.S. Treasury bills jumped as investors looked to protect money.

McNaught-Davis said Scottish Widows, which runs about 148 billion pounds overall, similar to Standard Life Investments and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc in Scotland, still expects the MSCI World Index to advance this year and next.

The International Monetary Fund last month raised its forecast for global growth this year and cautioned that a failure of nations to contain soaring public debt might have “severe” consequences for the world economy. The economy will expand 4.2 percent in 2010, the fastest pace since 2007, compared with a January projection of 3.9 percent, the IMF said.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-27/global-bear-market-risks-increase-to-40-scottish-widows-manager-says.html

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 06/01/2010 13,050,826,460,886.97 (UP 58,287,329,929.75) (Tue)

(Up a lot. We hit 13T$ by end of day Tuesday. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,572,779,158,729.50 + 4,478,047,302,157.47
UP 78,359,726,143.31 + DOWN 20,072,396,213.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,232.19 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.70, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,387,316 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,182.81.
A family of three owes $126,548.43. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,861,311,668.10.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,402,918,167.67.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,190,235,782.19.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 166 reports in 244 days of FY2010 averaging 6.87B$ per report, 4.68B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 964 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/01/2010 13,050,826,460,886.97 BHO (UP 2,423,949,411,973.89 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,140,997,457,375.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,706,819,966,975.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/10/2010 +000,804,647,162.22 ------------******** Mon
05/11/2010 -000,148,047,510.67 ---
05/12/2010 +000,782,970,242.92 ------------********
05/13/2010 +003,301,759,550.17 ------------*********
05/14/2010 -000,440,383,687.55 ---
05/18/2010 +000,360,533,772.20 ------------******** Tue
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue

110,909,970,972.15 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4408452&mesg_id=4408466

[Festivito]

32. Debt: 06/02/2010 13,058,289,851,171.50 (UP 7,463,390,284.53) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,573,302,330,463.11 + 4,484,987,520,708.39
UP 523,171,733.61 + UP 6,940,218,550.92

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,232.13 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.70, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,393,962 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,206.03.
A family of three owes $126,618.08. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,979,587,968.85.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,651,697,843.82.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,319,725,312.57.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 167 reports in 245 days of FY2010 averaging 6.88B$ per report, 4.69B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 963 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/02/2010 13,058,289,851,171.50 BHO (UP 2,431,412,802,258.42 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,148,460,847,659.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,710,972,283,248.27 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/11/2010 -000,148,047,510.67 ---
05/12/2010 +000,782,970,242.92 ------------********
05/13/2010 +003,301,759,550.17 ------------*********
05/14/2010 -000,440,383,687.55 ---
05/18/2010 +000,360,533,772.20 ------------******** Tue
05/19/2010 +000,208,812,715.15 ------------********
05/20/2010 +010,103,129,083.31 ------------**********
05/21/2010 +000,263,393,058.28 ------------********
05/24/2010 +000,371,674,396.55 ------------******** Mon
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********

110,628,495,543.54 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4410252&mesg_id=4410284

[ozymandius]

12. Future in doubt for New York Fed chief with a ‘scarlet letter’

Is William Dudley, the doughty president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, going to be pushed out? That is a question that could soon be bubbling in the markets.

For as US Senate and House committees scurry to harmonise their two different financial reform bills, one bone of contention is the future leadership of the New York Fed.

Most notably, as my Financial Times colleague Tom Braithwaite observes, there is pressure afoot to change how the NY Fed president is selected, so that in future the candidate would be chosen by the US president and then approved by Congress.

This would replace the current system, whereby the candidate is chosen by the NY Fed’s own board – a practice that has prompted charges of leaving the NY Fed president prone to excessive Wall Street control, since the board is currently dominated by bankers.

It is still unclear whether this proposal, passed by the Senate last month, will fly. Unsurprisingly, the Fed hates the idea, since it fears that it would “politicise” the Fed and undercut its inflation-fighting credentials.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/54dabcbc-6e67-11df-ad16-00144feabdc0.html

[Demeter]

24. Not sure that would be an improvement

More and more, I think the Fed should cease to exist.

[ozymandius]

15. The Continuing Mystery of the Lehman Black Hole

We’ve taken the liberty of designating the biggest money pits of the financial crisis as “black holes.” And one the characteristics of black holes is that anything that crosses the so-called “Schwarzschild radius” does not escape. That means that it is impossible to obtain any information from inside the Schwarzschild radius.

That feature seems particularly relevant as far as AIG and Lehman are concerned. With AIG, there has been no interest in ascertaining why a bailout that was supposed to total $85 billion, max, was retraded four times, with the amount going to AIG rising each time. By contrast, as we have pointed out repeatedly, UBS was made by the powers that be in Switzerland to explain in detail why it needed a rescue.

For Lehman, despite the voluminous so-called Valukas report, prepared by the bankruptcy examiner, the biggest question remains unanswered. How could an investment bank that sported a positive net worth suddenly show such massive losses? Even Lehman skeptics were stunned at the magnitude of the losses.

As we noted before, Repo 105 and the hasty bankruptcy are not sufficient explanations:

But the numbers do not add up. The bankruptcy administrator has put the losses at $130 billion (although that number is still in play) and was (remarkably) denying that Lehman had a solvency problem at the time of its collapse, when the tenor of the Government section suggests the reverse. In addition, Lehman’s net worth as of May 31, 2008 was reported at $26 billion. So if we accept the $130 billion estimate, the swing from reported net worth to losses realized was over $150 billion. We still have no satisfactory explanation of how that took place.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/the-continuing-mystery-of-the-lehman-black-hole.html

---

This intrigues me, too. How can a bank's worth swing so wildly? Were debts suddenly called in?

[Tansy_Gold]

33. And this all happened in five months? Four? THREE?

I don't know enough about this stuff even to ask intelligent questions, but didn't Lehman collapse in September '08? So not only did they "lose" $150 billion, but they lost it in 15 weeks? How do you lose $10 billion a week for 15 straight weeks?

Obviously it wasn't a nice steady progression like that, but someone somewhere had to know what was going on. DIN'T THEY??????




Tansy Gold, smelling a rat and wondering if it's that "flash crash" thing, but she'll post about that separately.

[ozymandius]

16. How "discouraged" are small businesses? (from Atlanta Fed)

Roughly half of U.S. workers are employed at firms with fewer than 500 employees, and about 90 percent of U.S. firms have fewer than 20 employees. While estimates vary, small businesses are also credited with creating the lion's share of net new jobs. Small businesses are, in total, a big deal. Thus, it is no surprise that there is congressional debate going on about how to best aid small businesses and promote job growth. Many people have noted the decline in small business lending during the recession, and some have suggested proposals to give incentives to banks to increase their small business portfolios. But is a lack of willingness to lend to small businesses really what's behind the decline in small business lending? Or is it the lack of creditworthy demand resulting from the effects of the recession and housing market distress?

We at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta have also noted the paucity of data in this area and have begun a series of small business credit surveys. Leveraging the contacts in our Regional Economic Information Network (REIN), we polled 311 small businesses in the states of the Sixth District (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee) on their credit experiences and future plans. While the survey is not a stratified random sample and so should not be viewed as a statistical representation of small business firms in the Sixth District, we believe the results are informative.

Indeed, the results of our April 2010 survey suggest that demand-side factors may be the driving force behind lower levels of small business credit. To be sure, when asked about the recent obstacles to accessing credit, some firms (34 firms, or 11 percent of our sample) cited banks' unwillingness to lend, but many more firms cited factors that may reflect low credit quality on the part of prospective borrowers. For example, 32 percent of firms cited a decline in sales over the past two years as an obstacle, 19 percent cited a high level of outstanding business or personal debt, 10 percent cited a less than stellar credit score, and 112 firms (32 percent) report no recent obstacles to credit.

http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2010/05/how-discouraged-are-small-businesses-insights-from-an-atlanta-fed-small-business-lending-survey.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2FRUQt+%28macroblog%29

[Demeter]

30. What Small Businesses? I Don't See Any Small Businesses

They are long gone in Michigan.

[ozymandius]

17. Mortgage Applications Plunge

WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 2, 2010) — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 28, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week.

The Refinance Index increased 2.4 percent from the previous week. This was a smaller increase than in previous weeks, but was still the fourth consecutive weekly increase for the Refinance Index and it remains at its highest level since October 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier. The Purchase Index decreased for the fourth consecutive week and is currently at the lowest level since April 1997. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16.8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“With another week of historically low mortgage rates, the trend from the prior three weeks continued, as refinance applications increased while purchase applications dropped. Purchase applications are now almost 40 percent below their level four weeks ago, while the refinance share, at 74 percent, is at its highest level since December,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “In addition, the ARM share dropped last week to its lowest level since March of this year, as borrowers took the opportunity to lock in at historically low fixed mortgage rates.”

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/73038.htm

[hamerfan]

20. K&R!

Good Morning to all. Have a great day people!

[Demeter]

25. Same From Me to All, Esp. to You, Hamerfan!

Nothing like being shot from a cannon to start off the day!

[DemReadingDU]

26. 5 Monsters Eating the Global Economy

6/2/10 5 Monsters Eating the Global Economy

When markets rally, the media focuses like a cyclops on anything positive. When markets stumble, negativity takes center stage. As savvy investors, we want to keep our eyes on the highest probabilities for risk. Here is your Cheat Sheet for the top 5 negative stories in focus now:

5. Israeli Blockade of Palestinian Aid

Israel’s (NYSE: EIS) Flotilla raid has quickly made global headlines and once again adds fuel to the seemingly never ending fire in the Middle East. Now, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says economic ties between the two countries will suffer after Turks were killed during the blockade. Turkey is Israel’s largest trading partner in the Muslim world. Moreover, rising political tensions put indirect pressure on oil (NYSE: USO) as geopolitical risk can spread to Iran.

4. North Korea War Threats to South Korea

When countries get desperate, war — or at least rhetorical threats of war — is a key political tool to distract the masses. In this case, Kim Jong-il is back using his nuclear threats to extort the West for more money. This is bad news for economic powerhouse South Korea (NYSE: EWY) as they are already dealing with a fragile economic recovery.

3. BP Oil Spill

The credit and housing bubble collapses were the direct results of a poorly established set of basic rules for economic safety. In the same era, we have billions of dollars more in damage because BP (NYSE: BP), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), and Haliburton (NYSE: HAL) lobbied away some of the most important safety features of the oil drilling process. The Gulf region is screwed on multiple levels, and the mess may spiral to new levels if hurricane season spreads the oil into the Atlantic and beyond.

2. China’s Slowing Growth (and Real Estate Bubble)

We raised red flags about China (NYSE: FXI) several weeks ago and discussed it on Yahoo TechTicker (Nasdaq: YHOO). Now, new economic data out of China shows manufacturing down month over month and property sales slowing. While all eyes are on Europe and the sovereign debt crisis, a Chinese property bubble burst or manufacturing slowdown could seriously hamper any chance for a near-term economic recovery.

1. Sovereign Debt Crisis

If you haven’t heard more about Greece now than when you were in high school english class, you must be a major outdoors person or video gamer. The sovereign debt crisis is unfolding like dominos in slow motion. First it was Greece, then credit downgrades hit the EU. Portugal, Spain, and Italy are on deck. And across the pond Ireland and the UK are crumbling under the weight of their debt. Although the EU and IMF have established a bailout package to save the Euro (FOREX: EURUSD), this crisis is far from over.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/208127-5-monsters-eating-the-global-economy

[DemReadingDU]

27. The Hemline Indicator Flashes Bearish

6/1/10 The Hemline Indicator Flashes Bearish

The New York Times – A Long, Lean Backlash to the Mini

“There is definitely a movement to a very lengthy look, especially among the young,” said Nevena Borissova, a partner in Curve, a progressive retailer with stores in New York, Los Angeles and Miami. Ms. Borissova favors radically stretched-out skirts and dresses that “drag on the floor, with raw edges, and worn with combat boots,” she said. And as she pointed out, these myriad calf- or ankle-grazing iterations of the milelong skirt bear no relation to “Big Love” or, for that matter, the Summer of Love. There is nothing remotely prim or saccharine about the latest interpretations of this look, with their distinctly urban overtones. Current versions, even the most languid, are likely to be toughened up with a military parka or a biker jacket and thick-soled shoes. A muted, and at times ascetic, successor to the sweet-as-a-bonbon, Hamptons-worthy maxi-dresses that first alighted on downtown streets a couple of summers ago, the new maxis are more Morticia than Ophelia. They are “darker and more sophisticated” than last summer’s flounced beach dresses, said Morgan Yakus, a partner in No.6, a haven for style-setters in downtown Manhattan.

Comment

The “Hemline Index” was first developed by technical analyst/economist George Taylor in 1926. It gained popularity around the 1929 stock market crash. The theory states that the stock market rises and falls with women’s hemlines. Below is a famous graphic depicting the stock market and hemlines from 1897 to 1990 constructed by Alan Shaw’s legendary technical analysis group at Smith Barney.

If this theory still holds, the story above is a bearish indicator for the stock market.



chart by SmithBarney

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/the-hemline-indicator-flashes-bearish/


5/26/10 A Long, Lean Backlash to the Mini
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/fashion/27MAXI.html