Japan's Economic Cancer

[dArKeR]

This is the Tokyo that dazzles: a new multi-billion dollar complex of shops and condos. Looking at this, you'd think Japan's economy is going gangbusters. And boy, would you be wrong.

Here's the other Japan: closed shops and wrecked lives. The cause, as CBS News Correspondent Barry Petersen reports, is deflation, an economic cancer that just keeps spreading.

Japan's deflation is a lot about Japan's culture. When the economy started cooling in the early 1990s, companies didn't scale back or lay off. That's not the Japanese way. they kept making products. Make too much of something, and the only way to sell it is to cut the price - at discount chains that are popping up all over the country.

So the cheap stores drove the traditional ones into bankruptcy, like the ceremonial closing of one of Japan's largest department store chains in Kisarazu.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/07/30/eveningnews/ends/main565927.shtml

I stick by my theory. Japan is secretly controlled by the U.S. We didn't go fight the Japanese then let them take over their country again. We put people, agents, in place we could control. In the Gov. and in the Corps and in the banks and in the local Bush Family tpye mafias. I think all their Prime Minister were/are U.S. puppets. An Iraq on a larger scale. You can clearly see mafias control Japan. I've seen several 'main stream' documentaries on this subject besides the print media reports.

Japan, 11 Prime Ministers in 10 years.

http://darkerxdarker.tripod.com/

[netsec]

1. Have you ever been there?

I ask that because I would be surprised if you have spent much time in Japan. In one sense you are right about it being much like Iraq. There are people in Japan who hate us very much and they seem to be the ones who get the most press, while the ones who like us over there are the majority and are seldom mentioned.

[Art_from_Ark]

2. I've been there

In fact I live there, and I've been part of the Japanese economy for twenty years.

I found the article to be high on hype and low on substance. "Deflation has caused everything that is wrong with the Japanese economy," insinuates the article. But there is much more to the story than that,

The main cause of deflation in Japan is not the government supporting local industries-- it is the flood of super cheap imported goods. Over the past ten years, for example, consumer electronics that had been produced domestically are now being imported from low-wage countries, especially China. There are very few low-end durables in the stores these days that are not made in China. I was recently looking at electric shavers, window fans, bicycles, vacuum cleaners, and CD players-- and they were nearly all made in China! Ten years ago, odds are that they all would have been made in Japan!

The decline of the mom-and-pop shops has a lot to do with US pressure on Japan to deregulate the big conglomerates, essentially resulting in the "Wal-Mart effect" in which the conglomerates drive out the little guy. The US also pressured Japan to import more goods, and most of these goods have come from China.

The author also fails to mention the chaotic exchange rate that had plagued the yen for about 15 years beginning in the mid-'80s. No analysis of the Japanese economy is complete without a study of exchange rates, which shot from 200 yen/dollar to 160 y/d in 1985, went all the way to 78 yen/dollar in 1994, shot back down (or up, depending on your persective) to 143 yen/dollar in 1998, and was on a wild roller coaster ride in-between. In comparison, the recent fluctuation of 123-115 yen/dollar represents "stability".

Then there is the matter of job loss. Unlike Americans, Japanese consumers tend to curtail their pruchasing if they fear for their jobs. The era of job security is over, so people are cutting back on non-essentials.

Of course, there was no mention of the maturity of the Japanese economy. Once an economy matures, demand for durable goods slackens. For example, in this country of 126 million people and 147,000 square miles, there are 60 million registered automobiles! Especially when you consider that the legal driving age is 18 and few people over 65 drive, it is easy to see that the automobile market is near the saturation point.

As for my own situation, I was buying stuff like a drunken sailor when I was first getting set up in Japan. Now there is little in the way of durable goods that I need (or have room for). This situation seems to be the norm among middle-age income earners.

[dArKeR]

4. I remember the Yen at 300-350 for some time?

What is your opinion that Western White Men really control Japan?

[Art_from_Ark]

5. The yen was artificially pegged at 360/dollar after the war

and remained there until the Nixon era (1971 or thereabouts). After that, it was subjected to market forces, and its value eventually rose to the 260/dollar level. When I first came to Japan in 1981, it was at the 200/dollar level, and it stayed there (more or less) until 1985, when pressure from the Reagan administration artificially increased the value to about 160 yen/dollar almost overnight.

As for who controls Japan, one must consider the dependency of Japan on the US economy, the dependency of Japan on oil, the instant fall from power of "reform" prime ministers (like Kaifu) who actually try to institute reforms, and the stationing of foreign troops in this country. It is apparent to me (and many citizens of this country) that Japan's political status is somewhere between that of a US protectorate and a fully independent country, but probably closer to the former.

[Art_from_Ark]

6. Some more thoughts

You may remember that in the mid-80s, Japan's economy was riding high-- even considering that the sudden rise of the yen (almost instantaneous increase of 25%) suddenly made Japanese exports that much more expensive.

You may also recall this as the era of Japan-bashing. Reagan came here in '87 or '88 (maybe both years) to tell the Japanese to quit working so hard, buy more luxury junk, turn forests into golf courses, import rice (like telling Newcastle to import coal), deregulate financial institutions, impose a flat (20%) tax on savings account interest (to reduce incentives for the frugal Japanese to save so much money), build more roads that go to nowhere, and "voluntarily" reduce exports of high-quality products (especially cars) to the US. Lo and behold, Japan followed this crappy advice, and a year or two later found itself in the midst of a recession-- which it apparently still has not shaken.

When Bu$h 1 came to Japan with auto executives in tow (among them Lee Iococca), he put tremendous pressure on Japan to import inferior American cars (like the progeny of the K Car-- a classic piece of junk), without regard to driving conditions or consumer preferences in Japan. Most of the roads in this country are VERY narrow-- sometimes American behemoths (like that Ford Tank that nearly hit me the other day) take up 1 1/2 lanes of a two-lane road-- and the steering wheel is nearly always on the wrong side.

Anyway, Japan has been "offered" a ton of crappy economic advice (either through official channels, or through "leading" financial publications), and many times they have followed it (often unwillingly), with nearly always bad results. The recent issue with the steel exports tells me that once again they are being pressured economically to do something against their will.

[dArKeR]

8. You know a lot of details! Underneath all the trys to reform, economic

conditions... is it really American Power Elites who were installed by MacArthur the ones to this day still control Japan? Just as we see in America the Power Elites controlling offshore companies who control another company who control... Diebold...

I just don't believe the U.S. didn't install agents in every part of the government, economy and society when they had the chance.

[Art_from_Ark]

9. During and after the war,

the US made sure that Japan would be on the American side.

Not that this is necessarily bad-- on the contrary, I, for one, have been a lucky beneficiary of excellent US-Japan relations. The problem arises when right-wing American administrations become too pushy with Japan.

[molok555]

11. As always, art is right on the $

Just to back up his facts, I can provide more anecdotal evidence based on my (considerably less) time there:

When I first arrived in '97, it was the Japan of legend-EXPENSIVE! Over the course of the years I lived there, more and more cheap alternatives cropped up. Now, you'll find most Japanese shopping at UniQlo for clothes rather than at any of the expensive department stores (Takashimya, Isetan, Seibu, etc). UniQlo, and to a lesser extent Muji Ryushi, offer the Japanese something that was almost unavailable before: good, cheap clothes. You can buy a pair of pants for around 2500yen ($22 USD or so), a price unheard of before the late '90s. People are more apt to got out for dinner at a cheap fmily restaurant like Saizeriya, Gusto or kaiten sushi. You see plenty of new places open up and then close down soon after. And the mom & pop shops are being squeezed, especially in the larger cities. I do believe that Japan has square footage limit on retail space, but may have either changed or can be 'bent'. Either way, Costco is booming.

And I don't think a cabal of white people controls anymore than said cabal controls America. Japanese leadership is conservative, always has been. The US ensured that in the immediate postwar period. Many former Imperial functionaries (and even some war criminals) were promoted. It's interesting to see the reconstruction/occupation of Iraq and compare it with Japan, ca.1945-1953.

[dArKeR]

12. I've never met a Japanese who said they wanted U.S. bases in Japan.

But most Koreans I know want the bases in Japan to stay but the ones in Korea closed.

[dArKeR]

13. Why is the Japanese mafia so powerful and nothing is done about it from

prosecution point of view?

Once I was walking down the street and a guys briefcase fell off his scooter. You know what I mean Art. The real scooter where you put things down by your feet. (This guys must have been drunk not to notice he lost it.) Anyway, being my usual self I sprang into action. I saw a guy with a dark black suit pick it up. I ran out in the street and grabbed it out of his hand, which brought a lot of attention. (You know what I mean Art, when you do something out of the normal everyone looks at you.) I held it with the intent to give it to a police officer (man). This guy started to get really pissed off. I said, 'This isn't yours I'm taking it to the police.' I have no idea if he understood me. A police car just happened to be driving by. I stopped it and they suit took off really fast. Wow, what an experience that was.

Not only did the police think I was crazy everyone in the area thought I was an Alien. This street vendo who I had been talking with before the incident came over to translate. But the cop coulds speak some English. They completely understood the situation but they wouldn't take the briefcase. They told me I had to walk to the police station and turn it in. (about 2 KM). And they drove away.

Left to black suits looking at me I got a little nervous. Just then the street (van) vendor said he'd take it and give it to the police station after work. That was fine with me, I'd tried my best.

I ate my chicken and took off. I peeked around the corner and saw the vendor going through the briefcase.

[dArKeR]

21. Why is Taiwan and not Japan the number 1 destination for U.S. Gov.

staff workers? Since Japan is the world's number 2 economic power.

[mumon]

18. Exactly. I've been there 15 times of the last few years...

And (clothing seems to be a notable exception compared to the US, but even that's changing) you're right: everything's made in China now.

And even social trends millitate against this: there's been a big rise in coffee shops (whreeas their domestically grown green tea is superior to any in the world!), fast food joints, etc.

I do business in Nara alot; San Jou Douri, the "old Main Street" has graffitti now unthinkable earlier.

Another saturation point for Japan is telecommunications; their phone gadgets are only to increase demand to a sluggish 2 or 3 %!

Finally, population demographics are playing a role as well.

[Art_from_Ark]

20. Yes, we shouldn't forget the population demographics

Fewer kids, increasing elderly population, relatively stagnant population overall...

By the way, a little off topic here but have you ever fed the deer in Nara? I went there once during O-bon and was amazed at the piles of "shika sembei" (cracker-like food) that seemed to be by every deer. One man tried to force feed shika sembei to a deer: "Sekkaku o-mae ni esa wo ateru no ni... Tabenasai!" (I took the trouble to give you this food-- So eat it!" The deer just looked the other way. Then some high school girl gave the deer some green vegetables, and the deer eagerly gobbled them up. Too damn funny.

[dArKeR]

3. About 25 times.

What citizens think and the Government does have no relationship. In no way am I talking bad about 99% of the normal Japanese citizen. Next to Taiwan Japan is one of the most wonderful places, for me, to be. Such nice people but that doesn't change the facts of my opinion of my above post.

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[mumon]

17. Most Japanse are like most Americans...

except with ALOT less debt.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi netsec!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[AmericanErrorist]

7. A small footnote

When Bu$h 1 came to Japan with auto executives in tow (among them Lee Iococca),...

This was the visit where he vomited on the Prime Minister's lap.

[Art_from_Ark]

10. You are right

And a joke that was circulating at the time went like this:

At the dinner party in Japan yesterday, President Bush threw up and passed
out. This was caused by a mix-up in the kitchen; Bush's plate had been
intended for Lee Iacocca.

[dragonquest8]

14. Japan's Economic Cancer is bad loans, mainly in financial markets

real estate market has steadily lost more than 7.5 trillion dollars since the burst of the bubble economy in 1992...

[Art_from_Ark]

15. Certainly the bad loans are a problem

but they are not the only problem. And if that jerk-off Reagan hadn't pressured the Japanese to fix things that weren't broken, the bad loans would not be such a problem today.

In 1982, Japanese banks were known for their strict loan practices.
Between then and 1989, the jackass Reagan pressured Japan to deregulate its banking industry. Remember the Yen/Dollar Ad Hoc Commitee the Reagan administration forced on the Japanese government in 1983?

But the problem is more than bad loans-- it also involves bad financial advice, wildly fluctuating exchange rates, the "hollowing out" of Japanese industry, the maturation of the Japanese economy, the destruction of the mom-and-pop economy by the large chains, the collapse of the stock market, the lack of bank interest on savings (currently at the rate of a penny interest per $10 per year on fixed term CDs), the imposition of national sales taxes at extremely inopportune times, the pissing away of $15 billion during a recession to support a war nobody wanted, and a host of other reasons.

[mumon]

16. More Cheap Labor Conservative Trickery...

This article the Japanese are "wrong" for attempting to maintain their society in the midst of globalization, etc.

Japan's economy is tanking in part because of low cost producers elsewhere, and its banking system.

And it's not really a secret: Japan's DLP was a tool of the CIA from its inception. That's why it's neither democratic nor liberal.