STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 2

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 2, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 1, 2010

Dow... 10,927.07 +70.44 (+0.65%)
Nasdaq... 2,402.58 +4.62 (+0.19%)
S&P 500... 1,178.10 +8.67 (+0.74%)
Gold future... 1,126 +11.70 (+1.05%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.87 +0.05 (+1.25%)
30-Year Bond 4.73 +0.02 (+0.40%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Mar
Briefing.com 75K
Consensus 184K
Prior -36K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Mar
Briefing.com 9.8%
Consensus 9.7%
Prior 9.7%

08:30 Average Workweek Mar
Briefing.com 33.8
Consensus 33.9
Prior 33.8

08:30 Hourly Earnings Mar
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.1%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

14. NFP up 162,000 - Jan/Feb rev'd up 62,000 - avg hrly earnings fall

U.S. Jan., Feb payrolls revised up 62,000 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March total hours worked up 0.7% 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March U6 alternative jobless rate up to 16.9% 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March average hourly earnings fall 2 cents 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March payrolls ex-Census rise 114,000 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March unemployment rate steady at 9.7% 8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. March nonfarm payrolls rise 162,000 8:30 a.m. Today

[Tansy_Gold]

15. Serious questions --

1. Are these numbers legit, or are they Administration spin?

2. If they are legit, are they contradicting all the "forecasts" from SMW?

3. If 2 is yes, why?

4. Were we wrong, or what's going on here?

Again, my usual disclaimer. I'm not an economist and I have no access to "special" information, so I can only go with my gut instincts. Those instincts tell me the economy is not turning around, has not bottomed out prior to a turning around, and that something fishy is going on.

But I could be wrong.



Tansy Gold

[UpInArms]

16. TG, you are rarely wrong and you are right to question those numbers

here's more info:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-to-come-with-plenty-of-asterisks-2010-04-01

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Good news!! The U.S. economy likely added about 200,000 jobs in March, economists said ahead of a major report to be released Friday.

If their forecasts are correct, it would be a small first step toward recovering the nearly 8.5 million lost jobs lost since the Great Recession began in 2007. Payrolls have fallen in 26 of the past 27 months.

The bad news is that the March data will be so compromised by special factors that a clean reading on the labor market will be impossible to get for at least another month. It'll be hard to know if the economy really created any new, permanent jobs, or if the faster pace of hiring was due to better weather in March, or to temporary hiring at the Census Bureau.

<snip>

March's payroll numbers will be inflated by two special factors: 1) Temporary hiring by the Census Bureau as part of its constitutional duty to count everybody in America; and 2) a rebound from extremely poor weather in February, when 1 million people reported that they couldn't work because of weather.

<snip>

Ultimately, the Census says it plans to hire about 1 million temporary workers, many in April and May to go door-to-door to get answers from people who didn't mail back the Census questionnaire.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

17. Thanks

As a self-employed person who is also collecting social security, I'm not sure where I fall in the general head-count, but that's really beside the point.

March numbers may also be weather-skewed due to northeast flooding. My daughter in NJ said they had four or five days off in March because of floods. She works for a large urban school district. So while her job isn't directly affected, how many others were?

BUT -- what does a four-day lay off have to do with total number of employed or unemployed? Hours worked, yes, but not number of employees. If I remember from my HR days back in the 70s and 80s, the monthly report was based on how many were on the payroll on a certain day of the month, like the 15th or something. Someone who is on the payroll but doesn't happen to work that day is still counted, aren't they? And yes, that's a long time ago and things have certainly changed since then.

Speaking of jobs, mine calls. It's boring and I'm easily distracted by DU!


TG

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. All I can say is what appears to be going on in our neck of the woods. As you know, Houston is doing better than most and yet in Feb the unemployment numbers went up. In March they went down a smidge but everyone is holding their collective breaths. The city departments are tightening their budgets and several school districts are laying off. HISD (where I work) is saying they will lay off but they are vague about the number.

This administration seems bent on doing away with NASA, which is just as well because they are destroying education and we won't be able to replace the scientists and engineers, so that will have an impact on Houston. Our oil and gas industry is a plus but the refining end is having trouble. Real Estate is a mixed bag. Small business is hard hit and available commercial office space is going up but the rent is not dropping. Prices on existing homes is down a bit, but is still close to bubble prices-and the prices on the new homes-why those folks are mad as hatters.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Hugin]

22. So...

The U6 is up and the "official number" is steady?

and... TPTB and their pollyanna minions are spining people's unemployment comp running out as a "good thing".

Nauseating.

I think I'll avoid this stuff today.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[ozymandius]

2. Oil settles near $85, higher fuel costs ahead

....
Crude pushed to an 18-month high Thursday. It passed $85 a barrel at one point, driven by optimism that the world will need more oil as it pulls out of the Great Recession.

Continued signals of strength in the manufacturing industry helped extend a recent rally. Oil prices have risen about 23 percent from early February as the industrial sector leads a gradual recovery in the U.S. economy. Some analysts are becoming worried, however, that too steep of a climb in oil prices could choke off the economic rebound.

Motorists are already feeling the effects at the pump, where the average nationwide retail price of gasoline is at the highest level since October 2008 and is expected to top $3 per gallon this spring or summer. Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for Oil Price Information Service, expects motorists will pay a little more than $300 million more for gas this Easter Sunday than they did on Easter Sunday last year. That's the difference between gas at a national average of $2.05 in 2009 and about $2.84 by this Easter, according to Kloza.

That doesn't bode well for consumer spending, which only recently has shown signs of picking up. If that trend were to reverse, the strength in manufacturing could ebb.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

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We see, once again, that speculative interests will kill off any economic growth potential for a short-term gain.

[ozymandius]

8. Fuel economy rule calls for 35.5 m.p.g. by 2016 for U.S. vehicles

NEW YORK -- The Obama administration unveiled its historic rules Thursday, setting a 35.5 m.p.g. average for the U.S. auto industry by 2016, which the government said would cut fuel consumption by 40% and generate $130 billion in benefits.

While the new rule is estimated to cost the industry $52 billion to meet, automakers embraced the standards for avoiding a patchwork of state and federal regulationsand called on the government to begin work immediately on updates for the 2017 model year and beyond.

Administration officials said the rules would raise the average price of a new vehicle by less than $1,000 in the 2016 model year and that many consumers would earn back the cost in fuel savings over three years. ....

The joint rule between the Department of Transportation and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is the first U.S. limit designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stemming from a Supreme Court ruling that classified carbon dioxide as a pollutant under federal law.

Automakers had backed the rule, which sets a target for every vehicle's fuel economy based on its size. The actual fuel economy target is 34.1 m.p.g., with the difference made up through more efficient air conditioning that should reduce carbon emissions.

http://www.freep.com/article/20100402/BUSINESS01/4020329/1320/Rule-calls-for-35.5-m.p.g.-by-2016

[ozymandius]

3. Treasury appoints 2 retired execs to AIG board

WASHINGTON – The Treasury Department has appointed a former banking executive and a former high-tech CEO to the board of directors of insurance giant American International Group Inc.

Donald Layton and Ronald Rittenmeyer will serve as directors as AIG strives to repay a government bailout package that totaled $182 billion, Treasury announced Thursday. ....

Treasury has the right to appoint two AIG directors because AIG missed four of the quarterly dividend payments Treasury collects from most bailed-out companies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100401/ap_on_bi_ge/us_treasury_aig_directors

[ozymandius]

4. AIG Less Reliant on U.S., on Path to Repaying Bailout, CEO Says

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche said the insurer is becoming less reliant on U.S. aid as it sells units, borrows from debt markets and strengthens operations it intends to keep.

The bailed out insurer is “now on a path” to repaying the loans included in its $182.3 billion rescue package, Benmosche said in an interview yesterday. The company will first pay off the $25.3 billion it owes the Federal Reserve before deciding how to raise the cash it needs to end its separate arrangement with the U.S. Treasury that includes a draw on a second credit line of more than $40 billion.

AIG reached agreements to sell its international life- insurance units for more than $50 billion in the first quarter, and its plane-leasing arm issued unsecured debt for the first time since May 2008. Standard & Poor’s said yesterday results were improving at AIG’s remaining units and that the insurer may recover from the junk status assigned to its stand-alone credit by yearend. ...

Benmosche cited Citigroup Inc.’s conversion of preferred to common shares as one possible strategy AIG could use to exit its involvement with the U.S. The Treasury will dispose of its 7.7 billion common shares of New York-based Citigroup over the course of 2010 using a “pre-arranged written trading plan,” the agency said this week. The U.S. also holds AIG preferred shares.

AIG’s more immediate focus is on completing the sales of the life insurance units, increasing profits at its remaining businesses and improving operating returns, Benmosche said. The sales of the life units will close by year-end, the companies have said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=az0bouW0eHus&pos=10

[Name removed]

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[ozymandius]

5. Hopes high for positive US jobs report

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The United States will get its latest unemployment count Friday, with high expectations that the tally will herald an improving job market and a quickening economic recovery.

Early Friday the Labor Department publishes its March jobs report, which is expected to show the first substantial increase in payrolls for more than two years.

With close to one in 10 American workers out of work, the monthly job count -- always an eagerly awaited indicator -- is being seen as pivotal. ....

Investors, groping around for guidance amid the worst market upheaval in a generation, will scan the report for signs that the US economic recovery is real and sustainable. ....

In February the Labor Department reported that nearly 15 million Americans were unemployed -- a rate of 9.7 percent -- and that 36,000 people left the country's nonfarm payrolls.

Economists expect the March unemployment rate to stay put at 9.7 percent, but for 190,000 people to be added to the payrolls, the gain offset by a growing work force.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100402/ts_alt_afp/useconomyunemployment

[ozymandius]

10. Some Perspective on the Employment Situation

Ritholtz has produced a graph (originally from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) that shows aggregate levels of employment, marginal employment, frictional and long-term unemployment and duration of unemployment.

This could be a bandwidth hog if posted here. So go see The Big Picture for a glimpse.

[ozymandius]

6. Mortgage rates rise above 5 percent

McLEAN, Va. – Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages climbed above 5 percent this week as a Federal Reserve program geared to keep interest rates low came to an end.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose to 5.08 percent this week from 4.99 percent last week, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said Thursday. At the same time last year, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.78 percent.

Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to a record low of 4.71 percent in December and have hovered around 5 percent since. Rates were kept down by the Fed's $1.25 trillion program to buy up mortgage-backed securities issued by Freddie Mac and sibling company Fannie Mae.

The Fed's program ended Wednesday. Some analysts feared that mortgage rates could rise once the program concluded, weakening the fragile recovery in housing and the overall economy. Low rates make mortgages less expensive for homebuyers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100401/ap_on_bi_ge/us_mortgage_rates

[ozymandius]

7. Ticking prime bomb: Fannie Mae delinquencies rise

Decades from now the summer of 2008 will likely be remembered to mark the turning point where legislative blundering took an otherwise serious financial crisis and molested it into an epic financial disaster. ....

The following chart shows what Fannie Mae terms the count of “Seriously Delinquent” loans as a percentage of all loans on their books.

Notice that despite all the government gimmicks and manipulation the level of delinquency at these two mortgage giants continues to mount.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Money/Paper-Economy/2010/0401/Ticking-prime-bomb-Fannie-Mae-delinquencies-rise

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That is a very disturbing chart. Careful not to look too closely at the pointy images - might put an eye out.

[DemReadingDU]

13. reminds me of a stalagmite, n/t

[Warpy]

20. Unemployed or underemployed people don't see the wisdom

in keeping an overpriced roof over their heads if they've never experienced or even come close to homelessness. That's why the middle class is defaulting while the poor people keep struggling because they know the consequences.

Around here, those foreclosure notices are generally in the "better" neighborhoods. My little slum has only had one that I know about and that was 5 years ago.

[Tansy_Gold]

26. I have two acquaintances currently facing imminent foreclosure

Both have viable options for earning the money to continue to make the payments. Neither seems willing to make the effort. Both come from relatively comfortable backgrounds and are angry at the system for letting them down, even though both know much of their predicament is their own fault.

Both will probably lose their homes, then whine that no one helped them out. Both have much more house than they knew they could reasonably afford when they bought, but they bought a year or so before the peak and didn't see the downside coming.

The people who are doing everything they can to hang on -- and often everything isn't enough -- are the ones I feel sorry for. The two anecdotes, not so much.

TG

[wordpix]

32. "even though both know much of their predicament is their own fault"

In 2006-07, I was considering a permanent move to my new job location, which was 70 mi. from my home, at the top of the market (at the time I didn't know it was the top). My choices were nice 2 br condos or rundown small houses in awful condition, all in the $425K price range in a small city I wasn't in love with.

I said to myself, these condos and houses are just too damn expensive for what they are and I will be paying off the mortgage for the rest of my life. Based on practical horse sense, I decided not to buy, and I rented a studio in my new job location and hung onto my condo 70 mi. away, which I visited on weekends.

One of the best decisions I ever made in my life. I believe those who got into trouble simply did not do the math.

[ozymandius]

9. Stock Traders Sleep, Bond Markets Work as Data Hit (Update1)

April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Tom Schrader, co-head of U.S. stock trading at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., plans to sleep in tomorrow. That’s not an option for all of his bond-market colleagues, said William Heinzerling, the firm’s head of fixed income.

The New York Stock Exchange observes the Christian holiday of Good Friday. The U.S. government doesn’t, sticking to its regular schedule of releasing economic reports with the potential to move markets.

This year, there’s an added wrinkle for at least the fourth time since 1996: Good Friday, whose timing depends on the cycles of the moon, coincides with the Labor Department’s employment report that’s sent out on the first Friday of every month. It’s the most influential planned event for the bond market, according to David Ader, head of government-bond strategy at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ....

The jobs report may boost stock-trading volume on April 5, when traders and investors return to work, said David Bellantonio. He’s the head of U.S. trading in New York at Instinet, which says it handles about 4 percent of the nation’s equity transactions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a9MlTo1eSVbs&pos=15

[Name removed]

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[ozymandius]

11. Good morning, all and I hope you have a nice day.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I have some final preparations to make before I get out the door. Not much is expected to happen in the markets due to the Christian holiday. i suppose the jobs number will move bonds a little.

:hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

12. Have a great day, Ozy!

And many thanks to you for providing this sanctuary.

Drive carefully -- there are crazy people out on the roads.




Tansy Gold

[Dr.Phool]

18. You just had to provoke me, didn't you.

I was just going to swing by, check the news and leave. Then, I see the 'toon.

Are these the worst negotiators you've ever seen or what? I was on my unions bargaining team for 12 years, and I've never seen anything like Obama and Emmanuel. They just give up everything as starting point, and negotiate downhill from there. That was their healthcare strategy. Now their environmental strategy. From past performance, I can only assume that's there strategy for Social Security and Medicare.

I guess in the future, we'll just have a 10% withholding that goes directly to Goldman, Chase, and Citi. There's no sense in forcing them to go through the effort to actually steal it from us. Just let them have it.

I remember the first contract negotiations I was involved in. We had a federal mediator involved. Part of the process was, both sides had to serve a section 6 notice, outlining what they wanted in the bargaining session. Both sides submitted ridiculous offers, like we demanded a masseuse to rub us down after work. They would demand our first born, etc. It was all a dance.

The company was employing a mute tactic. They would say nothing. Not even a yawn or a burp. The theory being, that the more the opposing side talked, the more they cut their own throats, negotiating with themselves, and every time they opened their mouth, they were giving up concessions. They wouldn't respond, and you'd give up more. It had worked for them before.

During the next break, I said when we go back in, don't say a fucking word. We didn't. Neither did they. For 2 days. Now we had a pissed off mediator on our hands. She started forcing both sides to talk.

It's the same thing with Obama. Remember that Rahm Emmanuel was Clinton's Karl Rove. Political director, and founder of "triangulation". Steal your opponents platform and take credit for their ideas, like welfare reform, Wall Street deregulation, etc.

Now it's health care, no wait, they changed that to health insurance reform, offshore drilling, Gitmo, FISA, Social Security. Their starting point is a Republican wet dream, and as long as the Republicans keep rejecting it, it goes downhill from there.

We are so fucked.

I was reading an interview with Mikhail Gorbachev in "The Nation" a couple of months ago. He said that Reagan was the only person who could have gotten their nuclear arms treaty through. If it was a Democratic president, the right would have gone ballistic. But they trusted Reagan. Now we have a "Democrat" pushing through nuclear power, offshore drilling, subsidies for coal, and a jackpot for the insurance companies, with nary a peep.

We are so fucked.



Dr. Phool, who won't get phooled again.

[DemReadingDU]

21. But we get 35.5 MPG gas standards within 6 years

In 6 years, the way the economy is still declining, more people will not only be losing their houses, but cars too. It's not going to matter what the standard for gas is, because many more people aren't going to afford to have a car to drive.

[bahrbearian]

24. The middle class won't have cars to drive, but they can work as Chauffeurs

[bahrbearian]

23. I take it you don't see it as 3D chess ?

[Dr.Phool]

25. I see it as a 3-D sexual assault'

AKA, a clusterfuck. There's a reason they said Clinton was the best Republican president of the last 50 years. Obama is going to surpass him.

[Warpy]

30. Before you go do anything silly

try to focus on what's happening to those screechers today. That party is bursting apart at its seams, its conservative backbone having decamped as it's become an embarrassment to self identify as Republican and the disparate group of crazy people left out of Reagan's unholy coalition are starting to fight each other over party purity, which they mistake for unity.

If they field a presidential candidate in 2012, it's not going to be much of a presidential candidate. All the presentable ones have retired, died off, become leery of entering the fray, or are exemplified by the befuddled McCain. The closest thing they have to a typical Republican with star power is Palin, and she's building consensus that she's unfit for much of anything, especially high office.

Yes, no matter what any Democrat does, the remaining Republicans will scream their silly heads off. Wise people will sniff derisively as their power fades and the screamers will no longer be able to block anything.

It would be a great help, of course, if the new Senate fields a Majority Leader who is willing to play hardball and tell Republicans throwing filibuster hissy fits that they need to get down on the floor and start talking or business will proceed as usual without their consent. The best way to get the filibuster returned to a sane tactic is to force the tantrum throwing GOP actually to do them.

In other words, it's not as hopeless as it was 20 years ago, 30 years ago or 40 years ago. The great pendulum in the sky is moving toward the left again and the right is out of ideas, out of stars, out of thinkers, and generally out of gas. In addition, their grand ideas have been proven to be dismal failures, yet again.

This too shall pass, as anyone who has ever been constipated knows.

[Dr.Phool]

36. I wish I could rec a reply.

Good post.

[UpInArms]

19. Morgan Stanley New CEO Earned $15 Million in 2009

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303395904575158291544992412.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

Morgan Stanley Chief Executive James Gorman earned $15 million in salary and bonus for his work as Wall Street firm co-president in 2009, the company said in its proxy statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.

Mr. Gorman earned $6.5 million in salary and deferred cash bonus plus about $8.5 million in deferred stock.

Even as the firm posted its first annual loss as a public company last year, Morgan's top five executives gathered total bonuses of $25 million, excluding stock awards. About 40% of that came in immediate cash bonuses, with the rest coming in ...

[wordpix]

31. bonuses for losses and poor performance, up is down...why invest anymore?

Your money goes to pay millions to these guys for a crummy performance. My money's going elsewhere until these guys get a clue.

[Demeter]

33. Got? Yes, Earned? I Highly Doubt It

Even professional assassins get paid way much less than that....

[DoBotherMe]

28. k&r n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

29. ditto

[tclambert]

34. By the way, what are we watching today? Isn't the stock market closed?

Closed in celebration of crucifying some anti-establishment rabble-rouser, no?

[Demeter]

35. And the Weekend Will Be Delayed for the Same Reason

have to go sing....see you all either after 9 or tomorrow!

[Name removed]

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[Joe Chi Minh]

38. Have you ever read a more pungent, devastating paragraph on your ultra-consumerist

society than this one from Dmitry Orlov's latest blog - especially the last two sentences.

"Why can't we stop? We can blame evolution, which has produced in us instincts that compel us to gorge ourselves when food is abundant, to build up fat reserves for the lean months. These instincts are not helpful to us when there is an all-you-can-eat buffet nearby that's open year-round. These instincts are not even specifically ours: other animals don't know when to stop either. Butterflies will feast on fermented fruit until they are too drunk to fly. Pigs will eat acorns until they are too fat to stand up and have to resort to crawling about on their bellies in order to, yes of course, eat more acorns. Americans who are too fat to walk are considered disabled and the government issues them with little motorized scooters so that they don't have to suffer the indignity of crawling to the all-you-can-eat buffet on their bellies. This is considered progress."

I don't know about such extreme obesity, but I believe obesity, generally, in the US and increasingly here in the UK is likely to be a combination of 'comfort eating', in response to inordinate levels of stress (itself not unallied to the extreme polarization of your country's wealth), fast foods, and in the US, your genetically contaminated food. Now, I've just read, here on DU, of another example of the insanity that seems to be becoming part of the fabric of your society in the US: a pregnant woman was tasered three times for refusing to sign a parking ticket. The judge okayed it, even though it wasn't even a misdemeanour in that locale. Oh, there were only three policemen, so they must have felt pretty scared.

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

[Name removed]

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[Festivito]

44. Debt: 03/31/2010 12,773,123,096,139.43 (UP 88,552,199,358.63) (Wed)

(Up a lot. My network links went down and one came up, strangely.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,290,037,831,046.49 + 4,483,085,265,092.94
UP 89,964,337,654.53 + DOWN 1,412,138,295.90

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,126,558 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,320.04.
A family of three owes $123,960.13. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 12,579,942,789.47.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,805,959,952.63.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,434,957,092.10.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 124 reports in 182 days of FY2010 averaging 6.96B$ per report, 4.74B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,026 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 22.5T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/31/2010 12,773,123,096,139.43 BHO (UP 2,146,246,047,226.35 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,863,294,092,627.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,731,331,559,390.72 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/11/2010 +029,692,666,288.30 ------------**********
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********

227,940,881,009.91 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4328463&mesg_id=4329276

[Festivito]

45. Debt: 04/01/2010 12,764,878,911,618.18 (DOWN 8,244,184,521.25) (Thu)

(Up a bit after being up big the day before. Good day all.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,294,870,658,096.94 + 4,470,008,253,521.24
UP 4,832,827,050.45 + DOWN 13,077,011,571.70

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.7, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,135,198 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $41,292.22.
A family of three owes $123,876.66. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 10,722,602,031.55.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,578,081,625.24.
The average for the last 31 days would be 8,301,369,314.75.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 125 reports in 183 days of FY2010 averaging 6.84B$ per report, 4.67B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,025 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.2 and 21.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/01/2010 12,764,878,911,618.18 BHO (UP 2,138,001,862,705.10 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,855,049,908,106.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,705,427,412,343.37 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/12/2010 +000,363,901,611.09 ------------********
03/15/2010 +060,487,338,970.60 ------------********** Mon
03/16/2010 +000,241,513,784.66 ------------********
03/17/2010 +000,318,864,879.69 ------------********
03/18/2010 +020,986,560,998.86 ------------**********
03/19/2010 +000,244,805,712.35 ------------********
03/22/2010 +000,662,784,714.13 ------------******** Mon
03/23/2010 +000,796,033,080.11 ------------********
03/24/2010 +000,495,755,553.04 ------------********
03/25/2010 +024,094,622,106.32 ------------**********
03/26/2010 -000,521,947,711.23 ---
03/29/2010 -000,032,502,739.57 ---- Mon
03/30/2010 +000,146,146,107.03 ------------********
03/31/2010 +089,964,337,654.53 ------------**********
04/01/2010 +004,832,827,050.45 ------------*********

203,081,041,772.06 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4329594&mesg_id=4332848