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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:34 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday February 16
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday February 16, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 12, 2010

Dow... 10,099.14 -45.05 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq... 2,183.53 +6.12 (+0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,075.51 -2.96 (-0.27%)
Gold future... 1,090 -4.50 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.69 -0.03 (-0.67%)
30-Year Bond 4.65 0.00 (0.00%)




U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES


Market Conditions During Trading Hours



GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$



Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood
Manipulation
BY TIM W. WOOD

"I have gone back to 1896 and have identified a very specific cyclical “DNA Marker” that has occurred at every major market top."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:48 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. What Did He Say?
The Markets are manipulated by TPTB, the Markets are NOT manipulated?

Does it make any sense anymore to keep this feature?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:01 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. It feels like a "jumped the shark" hold-over.
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 06:03 AM by ozymandius
Years ago, the "WrapUp" - as it was then called - had pretty good writers. Tim Wood was the outlier with his cycles drivel. The relevance to this thread, as it has taken a macro-economic bent, has seemed spurious and, quite often, disconnected from the general trends of this discussion.

There is a link to Financial Sense on the OP under "Economic Blogs". If someone wants this crap (with apologies to Marty Goldberg - who still has something meaningful to say) then it can be found there. I am tired of wasting my effort reading and posting these observations that are often designed to herd clients to the Puplava family business of precious metals trading. I am even less enthusiastic of posting Mr. Wood's anachronistic crap about statistics from 1896.

Consider it gone.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:05 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. RIP Then
A habit to break for the New Year.
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Loge23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:45 AM
Response to Reply #9
30. But thank you for the effort!
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 07:51 AM by Loge23
It's always my first read in the AM. I agree that most of their "commentary" is essentially a sales pitch for metals, but there has been some winners in the mix over the years.
I do appreciate the work you put in to this - the (IMO) premier thread on DU!

(on edit) By "you" I do wish to include Demeter, Anne, Hugin, Tansy, Phool, DemRead.., and all of the other usual suspects here along with the OZ meister.
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the other one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #5
48. ? He said market manipulation only works short term
And that no amount of manipulation can alter the primary trend of the market.
Manipulation can at best delay the inevitable.

I found it to be an interesting and informative read. I would vote
to keep articles like it in the future.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #48
51. and in the long term, We Are All Dead and Broke
Thank you, I'll be here all week...
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 12:37 PM
Response to Reply #5
73. Whether to keep it, or something like it:
I haven't been reading it long enough (or understood enough of it) to determine whether they're more often right or wrong.

However, I DO like finding here a steady supply of articles trying to sum up what's happening from people who know a lot more than me but whose explanations I can at least half-way understand.

Are there other possible sources?
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #1
34. The markets of the early 20th century are not the same as they are now
With hedge funds in the trillions, derivatives, CDS, CDO, ESAD, and FU (ok, I made those last two up :) ), it's much easier to manipulate or at least influence a sizable portion of the markets in a short period of time.

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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #34
58. On the lighter side, why don't we read "The Coffee Trader" by
David Liss, four paragraphs at a time, each day for lessons in manipulation...it's a DNA cycle doncha know.

Amsterdam global econ in 1659

http://sharkgrrl.confusatron.org/book-club/selections/coffee.html

With discussion questions, no less. ROTFL...

or for a more "Profiled" study guide, one that DUers probably would UNREC with abandon:

http://urj.org/learning/my/books/?syspage=article&item_id=1559



No wonder Irving's character, The Headless Horseman, roamed the forest of New York outside of Wall Street.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 02:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
78. I'm noticing a lot more manipulation in the commodities market
and bond market than I am in the stock market.

I say this as a non broker. I am no expert, in other words, just an ordinary slob with a decent ability to notice and interpret patterns.

While individual stocks are pretty easy to manipulate, the market as a whole is not. Until now, there has been little place to put ill gotten gains with the hope they'd make more ill gotten gains. I can see another moderate rise coming as people are increasingly nervous about the stability of the EURO during the PIIGS crises.

However, what goes up will go down. The market is overvalued as it is now, and as soon as an alternative presents itself, money will flood back out.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #78
82. Flood Back Out, or Simply Evaporate
paper profits can disappear in a twinkling.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:39 AM
Response to Original message
2. Today's Reports
08:30 Empire Manufacturing Feb
Briefing.com 16.40
Consensus 18.00
Prior 15.92

09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Dec
Briefing.com $35.4B
Consensus $50.0B
Prior $126.8B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #2
44. U.S. Feb. Empire State index 24.9.vs 15.9 Jan
Feb Empire State index highest since Oct.
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Feb. Empire State index 24.9.vs 15.9 Jan
8:30 a.m. Today

Note: Anything under 50 is still a contracting economy. :eyes:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:41 AM
Response to Original message
3. Oil near $75 as traders eye crude demand
SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $75 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors looked for signs of improving global crude demand amid light holiday trading.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was up 84 cents at $74.97 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. With markets closed Monday in the U.S. for the Presidents Day holiday, the contract last settled on Friday, falling $1.15 to $74.13. ...

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil was up 1.4 cents at $1.933 a gallon, and gasoline rose 0.9 cent to $1.9386 a gallon. Natural gas rose 7 cents to $5.54 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. Good Morning Ozy and All
Well that was a weekend of doom and gloom. the only good news was GS getting fingered for a quasi-crime in Europe.

Think the PTB are convinced that they are responsible; that they were wrong to act as they did; that they will pay the ultimate price in the end?

Nah. They are just as clueless as the rest of the country. God, it's lonely outside of SMW!

At this rate, the revolution will take generations. I guess that's what TPTB are counting on: Delay, confusion, disease and death. Despair.

Which is why Obama did such a good sucker job--Hope. Change. Bushwa. Bushwhacked yet again.

The chocolate has worn off, obviously. Sigh. I'll get some more tonight.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:24 AM
Response to Reply #4
13. Good morning, Demeter and all.
:donut: :donut: :donut:
It really is amazing to see how quickly economic issues fall off the radar. I am thinking of the quality presentation of information like that which we find at DailyKos with diarist Bob Swern. There is a new one by this diarist that explores new dynamics of the Goldman Sachs/Greece/EU trilemma in Germany: "Goldman broke the spirit of Maastricht Treaty..."

But the point is: Economics tends to drive people batty, make their eyes glaze over when they are confronted with numbers and financial maneuverings. This is particularly frustrating when, in fact, more people should be paying attention to this subject matter. Through the economic arenas are people routinely screwed and robbed blind.

I think economic bloggers get it. People do not like to think about this subject too much. So themes need to be hammered over and over again as well as approached from different angles. Eventually the smaller, more digestible chunks of information are digested.

At least that's how it's supposed to work in theory.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:01 AM
Response to Reply #13
32. Morning Marketeers...
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 08:03 AM by AnneD
:donut: and lurkers. Happy Mardi Gras (fat Tuesday), Happy Lunar New Year (GungHeiFatChow), and Happy War On Teachers Day.

WAR ON TEACHERS DAY???? Yes folks, it seems to be a national agenda. The attacks are scripted as follows....

1) student scores are low and they are failing and it is all the fault of those evil teachers (forget that the lil darlings are sleeping, texting and cutting classes). Good luck getting back up if they walk out or fight. Some of these kids had done CEP or Juvi.
2) teachers are overpaid-the 70+K figure is frequently bandied about. Then they proceed to report how low the area salarary is. So what??? Teachers have to repay their student loans back-you think they can do that on a Wal Mart salary? I want my child's teacher to have a degree, just like my Doc, or lawyer.
3) teachers are refusing to help out (they want you to put in even more unpaid overtime so the superintendent looks good).

Check out this story-all the HS teachers at one HS were fired when they refused to go along with this...

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7720030

I am just stunned at the level of beat the teacher mentality in some folks. It has been proven that between 1/4-1/3 of all new teachers leave the field within the first years-so this job is not for just anybody. I work as a Nurse in a school setting and frankly, I have even more respect than ever. I think they should recieve combat pay in MS and HS in innercity schools.

Anyway I have to take off now. I really love what I do but why do these numb nuts make it so hard to do my job. For all the tinkering....why do the level of education and scores keep dropping? That's is the real question. I think focusing solely on college bound and dropping the trade school was self-serving educational snobbery.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

And thanks for my hearts-they were really appreciated this last week.


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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:12 AM
Response to Reply #32
35. Teachers are the new nurses.
Do all the work, get none of the credit, and all of the blame.

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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #35
50. Amen
My DIL is a nurse, my SIL a teacher, my daughter a speech pathologist in an inner city school system.


Our corporate masters have destroyed our economy by destroying our manufacturing base, and now they're destroying the human base. Teachers "manufacture" the human intellectual product from the raw material in a process as vital and valuable as any assembly line. And I do not mean by that comparison that schools and teachers turn out one dientical widget after another, mindlessly and joylessly. I mean only that the education system takes the raw material -- our precious children who are our future -- and turns them not into widgets but into a whole galaxy of doctors and lawyers and engineers and botanists and designers and musicians and activists and mechanics and programmers and, yes, even politicians.

So the Detroit Public School system is letting Walmart come in and virtually, if not literally, train the kids to work at Walmart. This should be the wake-up call, that our civilization such as it is has been completely undermined by the corporate paradigm. There will be no more Bernsteins -- either Theresa or Leonard -- no more Jordans -- Michael or Barbara -- but only the mindless slaves to the millionaire Morlocks.

Hugh Beaumont's satire may not have been at all.



TG
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:16 AM
Response to Reply #32
37. I'd Say Those Texas-Pleasing Textbooks Have a Lot to Do With It
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 08:53 AM by Demeter
no offense to you, AnneD.

All the worst in teaching fads seems to start in Texas, these days. Before, it used to be NY.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #37
79. Texas provides the text books ...
free to students. These conservetive nut jobs discovered that a very few people can influence the text book committee. We have reasonable volunteers try to get certain text books through-but it is getting harder to get hard science passed. Too many vested interests want a slice of the education pie (just think of the Bushs' donating all that money to HISD to help our Katrina kids but it had to go to Neal's education program) :grr: :nuke: :banghead:
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CatholicEdHead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 11:51 AM
Response to Reply #32
69. Similar case up here
Our Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) who is running for President has taken the lead on this statewide, and even though he is not running again, State Rep Marty Siefert (R) is slamming not only the teachers unions but any public union.

The attack point is that since government and schools have good unions, they get paid many times the average worker, so the unions should be abolished to bring the "overly generous" pay scale back to the average working person's, which the private market has drastically shrunk the past couple of decades. So ideally everyone can now work for minimum wage, then attack minimum wage, and we can then work for nothing. :angry: :crazy:
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #13
57. And I'll tell you why.
The Spousal Unit explained it quite deftly one day when we were discussing how the general public reacts to seemingly minor political stories with venom, while the ones they should be outraged by are ignored.

"It's a matter of complexity, scale and personal stake. When you start discussing complex international political dealings (like NAFTA),many people can't grasp how it could possibly affect them directly until it does. So they leave it to the politicians they "hired" to do the job. But when the government starts butting into people's personal business (like Michael Schiavo, in the case of his ex-wife Terri), people have direct experience in dealing with terminally sick relatives. Or they can imagine themselves in similar circumstances. So they react as if they have a personal stake."

Economists, scientists and other egg-heady types do a horrible job of chunking it down to the "personal stakes" level. Because you and I know that the more specific you are about potential outcomes, the greater the potential for error. They don't want to risk the lampooning Ross Perot took for correctly calling out the "giant sucking sound of jobs moving out of our country". And, frankly, it is unscientific.

And what might count as a negative personal stake for one group might benefit another in a positive way. Meaning: if it was going to make Goldman Sachs a lot of money, you can be damned sure they'd have their spin doctors our telling you how grinding the economy into a fine powder was going to benefit you. .....wait, that already happened.

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Zenlitened Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #57
71. Spousal Unit seems quite wise!
"It's a matter of complexity, scale and personal stake."

I think that's a terrific way to sum it up. :think: :)

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dixiegrrrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:31 AM
Response to Reply #4
27. Have you seen the Chris Hedges video here on DU?
He talks of Obama as " a brand"...
very stark comments, all the more stark because they have such a ring of truth.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x434828
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:48 PM
Response to Reply #27
83. Thank you, that was depressing
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:48 AM
Response to Original message
6. Stocks Rise on Barclays Earnings, Economy; Commodities Rally
Happy Days are Here Again!

Stocks Rise on Barclays Earnings, Economy; Commodities Rally

By David Merritt

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rose as improved earnings at Barclays Plc reinforced the view that a revival in lending will help power the global economic recovery. Commodities gained as inventories declined.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks climbed 0.5 percent at 10:29 a.m. in London. Barclays soared as much as 9.7 percent, the most since April. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied 0.5 percent. Copper rose above $7,000 a metric ton for the first time since Jan. 28 and nickel advanced to the highest price since Aug. 13. Greek stocks and bonds fell as European finance ministers, meeting in Brussels, prepared to force the country to find more ways to pare its budget deficit.

Barclays doubled its profit in 2009, providing further evidence that government efforts to underpin the financial industry are working after banks worldwide recorded $1.7 trillion in losses and writedowns. Planned shipments of metals from warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange picked up this year, signaling improved demand from manufacturers.

“Corporate earnings have provided some positive news, which helped to improve sentiment,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “There’s been some positive news on Greece. You will need fresh bad news to fuel further risk-aversion trade, which in my view has gone too far lately.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB5VP_6oZNYA&pos=4#
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 05:57 AM
Response to Original message
7.  Business has not yet found its Copernicus
YOU MEAN, THE WORLD DOESN'T REVOLVE AROUND NEXT QUARTER'S PROFITS?

WHAT ABOUT WHAT'S-HIS-NAME, KARL SOMEBODY, THE GUY WITH THE MASSIVE MANE?




http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/de6f1586-1a66-11df-a2e3-00144feab49a.html

...we live by paradigms – frameworks of how things work, which we use to interpret what we see around us. A paradigm serves us well, until we come across anomalies that do not fit it.

We dismiss the anomalies, until they become overwhelming, at which point the paradigm collapses and is replaced by a new one. Examples of paradigm-shattering discoveries are Copernicus’s assertion that the earth moves around the sun and Darwin’s idea of natural selection....

...paradigms are more than devices for making sense of the world; they are essential to progress. Once scientists are working to an established paradigm (a heliocentric planetary system or evolution by natural selection) they can get on with the more detailed research they would not be able to do if they were still arguing over first principles. The paradigm goes into textbooks. The scientists develop the specialist skills that allow them to elaborate it.

......
The collapse of a paradigm is traumatic. Many never accept it. And it happens only when there is a sufficiently convincing new paradigm to replace it.

Had I been wrong to apply this construct to the world of politics and business? Kuhn does at various points discuss the parallels between science and other fields, such as politics and the arts. He concludes that these other areas are more fragmented. They consist of competing schools of thought that are not like science’s unifying paradigms.

This appears unnecessarily restrictive, but, in any event, there is a field that has attained a science-like overarching paradigm in recent decades: economics. Kuhn wrote his book in 1962, when capitalism was still in open competition with communism and long before the free market reached its apotheosis under Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.

Over the past 30 years, business schools taught the virtues of the free market. Academic researchers teased out its characteristics. The market provided consumers with choice and encouraged innovation. The system produced greater prosperity than any seen before. As a paradigm of how to run economies, it appeared to work.

There were anomalies: the market in chief executives did not appear to function. Their remuneration increased no matter how well or badly their companies did.

But the shattering crisis came with the recent financial collapse and dramatic admissions from Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank (“I no longer believe in the market’s self-healing power”), and Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, who, watching banks’ failure to protect their shareholders, talked of his “shocked disbelief”.

Are we witnessing a paradigm change? I suspect not. Remember Kuhn’s assertion that a paradigm does not truly collapse until another is ready to take its place. China does provide an alternative, apparently successful, model, but it is difficult to see it succeeding in many other countries.

The free market will accommodate its lessons and find a way to survive. The Chinese model will continue for some time too. I don’t see business’s Copernicus. Kuhn was probably right: lessons from the history of science are hard to apply elsewhere. His book stands the test of time, if not in quite the way I thought.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:01 AM
Response to Original message
8. EMI’s long and winding road leads to Abbey Road sale sign
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/889e63f0-1a70-11df-a2e3-00144feab49a.html

Abbey Road, the London recording studios immortalised by the Beatles album of the same name, has been put on the market by EMI as the music group looks to extricate itself from the debt burden of Terra Firma’s 2007 leveraged buy-out...

It was not immediately clear whether EMI would sell the Abbey Road brand name along with the property, but one media lawyer said: “The brand is worth more than the building . . . anybody who wants the studios will want the brand.”

EMI bought the house at number 3 Abbey Road for £100,000 in 1929 and transformed it into the world’s first custom-built recording studios.

In 1931, Sir Edward Elgar used studio one to record Land of Hope and Glory with the London Symphony Orchestra and by World War II Abbey Road was used for propaganda recordings for the British government and BBC radio broadcasts.

The Beatles put the studios on the map, using it for 90 per cent of their recordings between 1962 and 1969 and naming their final album Abbey Road. EMI used the studios for last year’s release of remastered Beatles albums.

Pink Floyd recorded Dark Side of the Moon at the studios, which have also been used by Radiohead, the Manic Street Preachers, Travis and Blur.

However, the studios have faced cheaper competition from recording facilities in other countries, and technological advances allowing artists to record using only a laptop computer have made it harder for labels to justify owning expensive recording infrastructure.

“What you have is a very, very expensive piece of heritage. If an artist goes to a label and asks to record at Abbey Road they will be met with maniacal laughter,” the media lawyer said.

Abbey Road is still prized as one of the few venues able to accommodate entire orchestras, which has allowed producers to record scores there for films such as Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:02 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Fed carries losses from Bear portfolio
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 06:03 AM by Demeter
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3898a44-1a62-11df-a2e3-00144feab49a.html

The US Federal Reserve is sitting on significant paper losses on the real estate assets it acquired in the Bear Stearns rescue, with much of the red ink coming from debt used to back some of the most high-profile buy-out deals of the bubble years.

Among the debts weighing on the central bank’s portfolio are those used in financing the acquisitions of Hilton Hotels, which is being restructured, and hotel operator Extended Stay, which is in bankruptcy, people familiar with the matter say.

The Fed holds these and other real estate assets in a vehicle known as Maiden Lane I, which was set up to pave the way for JPMorgan Chase’s purchase of Bear. At the time the deal was struck in March 2008, JPMorgan feared that if it bought all of Bear’s assets it would be left with too much exposure to the real estate market. Bear, for example, originally had $5.4bn of Hilton debt, a huge concentration

The assets in Maiden Lane I – all of which came from Bear’s mortgage desk – were originally valued at $30bn when a final agreement on the portfolio was reached in June 2008 by the New York Fed, its advisers at asset managers BlackRock and JPMorgan. At the end of 2009 the Fed said the assets were worth $27.1bn (€20bn, £17.4bn).

People familiar with the portfolio said Maiden Lane I’s losses were concentrated in commercial real estate assets, which had a face value of $8.4bn and an estimated worth of $7.7bn when they were acquired by the Fed.

As of September they had been marked down to $4bn, filings show.

About two-thirds of the Maiden Lane I portfolio involved mortgage debt backed by government-created entities, people familiar with the matter said. Those people describe the debt as highly illiquid, a factor that has resulted in its failure to rally strongly as credit markets recovered and interest rates fell.

“It was the scrapings off the slaughterhouse floor,” said one person. “It started with the things that were not good enough to get securitised.”

The Fed has disclosed little detail on these or other assets in the Maiden Lane I portfolio, fearing such revelations could hurt sales efforts, a person familiar with the matter said. JPMorgan and the New York Fed declined to ­comment.

Maiden Lane I was funded with $28.8bn from the New York Fed and $1.15bn from JPMorgan, which agreed to absorb the first $1bn of any losses.

The struggles of the portfolio could stir the debate on Wall Street over whether the New York Fed, then run by Tim Geithner, who is now Treasury secretary, struck a particularly good deal for taxpayers in the Bear rescue.

In a typical restructuring, creditors are made whole before shareholders are paid. In the Bear case, shareholders received $10 a share while creditors – in this case, the Fed – may lose money.

Mr Geithner told Congress in 2008 that the central bank had three “risk mitigants” to protect its interests in the Bear deal: JPMorgan’s agreement to take the first $1bn in any losses; the Fed’s long-time horizon as an investor; and the fact that the central bank’s $28.8bn loan was backed by “a pool of professionally managed collateral”.

Testifying before Congress last month, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chief executive, said the New York Fed received “the less risky mortgage assets” on Bear’s books. He added: “It would have been irresponsible for us to take on the full risk of all those assets at the time.”
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:12 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. I have long maintained that much of the current crisis can be traced directly back to the M&A fever
of the last decade of the last century of the last millennium.

Compared with the Trusts being formed at that time (and continue to be formed) the Housing Bubble as it relates to actual homebuyers is nothing... Also, I've said the Sub-prime fiasco is merely a red-herring for the real failures of FIRE.

"... much of the red ink coming from debt used to back some of the most high-profile buy-out deals of the bubble years."
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:40 AM
Response to Reply #12
17. There Are Too Many Unsound Financial Games That Grew Out of Reagan, Bush, etc.
and our own Clinton didn't lift a finger, but helped them out.

I don't know what it would take to trick this genie back into the bottle, but somebody must know...otherwise, it's war.
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:35 AM
Response to Reply #12
45. Instead of "earning" market share (ms)
well targeted LBO's allowed market share to be "bought"........

Pension funds were regularly raided to finance the deals. Often the final act at a bought-out plant was the boxing and shipping of mfg equipment to the third world.

The US is littered with empty plants and trashed local economies thanks to the greed of the Wall Street gamers.

:grr:
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 09:07 AM
Response to Reply #12
56. Another Cue!
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:29 AM
Response to Original message
14. Citigroup, BofA, JPMorgan’s Idle Cash Drags on Profitabilty
....
Banks are leaving more cash idle amid slack demand from borrowers throughout the economy and concern that regulators will require more liquidity to forestall another financial crisis. That’s crimping profit, and the result may be a drop in returns on equity by about 33 percent from pre-crisis levels, according to analysts at KBW Inc. ....

Citigroup’s $193 billion in cash and deposits with other banks as of Dec. 31 stood at $1.15 for each dollar of existing corporate loans, which totaled $167 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s double the ratio in June 2008, when cash totaled $113 billion against $222 billion of corporate loans at Citigroup, which ranks third in the U.S. by assets.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., ranked second and based in New York, showed a ratio of $1.08 as of September, the date of its most recent report to the Securities and Exchange Commission of its commercial loan totals.

At Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. lender, cash and deposits at other banks tripled to $146 billion, or 64 cents for each dollar of commercial loans at the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank. ....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ac3OkCtKQWGM&pos=6
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:36 AM
Response to Original message
15. Johnson: Eurozone May Ban Goldman, Humiliate Fed (updated)
This was posted yesterday (2/15) at DailyKos and bears repeating. - ozymandius

...
Around 8:50PM on Sunday night, I posted a diary entitled, "First Greece; Now Spanish Intelligence Opens Wall St. Probe." (Not linking to it, since it'd be "pimping" of a live diary.) In it, I talked about how the Spanish Intelligence Agency is investigating "...the speculative attacks on financial markets against Spain." I also noted how the Spanish government actually knows exactly where their investigation's heading. That's due to a story that appeared on Zero Hedge, just five days ago.

Yes, Spanish intelligence authorities need look no further than a Zero Hedge story from Tuesday, February 9th, for a great deal of assistance in their new investigation (which is, in large part, taken from another Spanish publication): "First Greece, Now Spain: Moore Capital, Brevan Howard, Paulson As Well As JPM And Goldman Implicated In Spanish CDS Rout." ...

In closing, Johnson conveys the reality that there is a fundamental question now facing the US government: "...For how long does it wish to be intimately associated with Goldman Sachs and this kind of destabilizing action? What is the priority here - a sustainable recovery and a viable financial system, or one particular set of investment bankers?"

If our government doesn't put a real saddle on Wall Street, others will see to it that all Americans will pay the price. In fact, we already are.

Our government's failure to either break-up and/or put a saddle--not continuing to engage in ongoing kabuki--on firms like Goldman-Sachs is quickly morphing into the biggest travesty in the history of this country. And, the saddest thing about it all is that it's taking people outside of the U.S. to make our own government do the right thing ... maybe ... if we're real lucky.

Link to Bob Swern's diary

Link to Zero Hedge story

Link to Simon Johnson's piece at Baseline Scenario
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:39 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Europe Ministers Ready to Force Deeper Cuts on Greece (Update3)
Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers turned up the pressure on Greece to put its public finances in order, and refused to say how they would make good on a promise to rescue the nation if it can’t tame its debt. ....

The ministers from the 16 nations that use the euro told Greek authorities yesterday to ready more deficit measures for next month, in case the government fails to show sufficient progress reining in the region’s largest budget deficit. After leaders promised to back Greece last week, EU governments are looking for guarantees that Greece can slash spending before they spell out what help they may offer.

Greek borrowing costs rose for a third day today, as the extra interest investors demand to hold Greek 10-year debt instead of German equivalents rose to 326 basis points, compared with 305 basis points yesterday. That’s more than twice the difference at the start of November. Credit-default swaps on Greek government debt rose 15.5 basis points to 370 points, according to CMA DataVision prices. ....

The government of Prime Minister George Papandreou has pledged to slash the budget shortfall to the EU limit of 3 percent in 2012 by cutting spending, freezing wages, raising taxes on items such as alcohol, and cracking down on tax evasion. Its cost-cutting moves already have triggered strikes, with more planned for later this month.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amfbglNkTgSA&pos=2
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:10 AM
Response to Reply #16
22. Juncker warns Greece to step up efforts
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f1ed35e-1a65-11df-a2e3-00144feab49a.html

Greece must step up efforts to cut its budget deficit and understand that other eurozone citizens are not prepared to pay for its government’s mistakes, Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said on Tuesday.

Mr Juncker, who heads the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, said if Greece failed to convince its peers within the monetary union with its austerity measures, it faced the risk of sanctions...

Mr Juncker, chairman of the ministers’ group, said the Greek government “should focus on expenditure cuts, for example cutting current capital expenditure ... but also include revenue-increasing measures”.

His statement made clear that European Union policymakers had turned a deaf ear to Greece’s appeals to switch the emphasis from new austerity measures to spelling out a rescue plan that would calm market fears of a Greek default.

Greece has promised to cut its deficit by 4 percentage points to 8.7 per cent of gross domestic product this year in a plan that won cautious Commission approval two weeks ago, after the government included more tax increases and wage cuts.

George Papandreou, Greece’s premier, warned his EU partners at a summit last week that his government would risk political destruction if it were to ask people to accept more belt-tightening after they had been led to believe that the EU authorities had endorsed its plan.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:44 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. Humiliation Seems Impossible
Retaliation is the only thing that will penetrate those hides. And I'm not sure how much retaliation, and where the vulnerable spots are....but as I said above, somebody must know...

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:13 AM
Response to Reply #15
24. "work experience at the top levels of Goldman is fast becoming a toxic asset"
...The race to become the ECB’s next president – with a term that starts next year – has been intense and hard fought.

Unfortunately for those hoping that Draghi could still prevail, he is also formerly senior management at Goldman Sachs and serious questions are emerging regarding what he knew and did during Goldman’s alleged “let’s help Greece circumvent EU budget rules” phase in the early 2000s.

Specifically, Draghi joined Goldman Sachs in January 2002, after a distinguished public service career – including 10 years in a key position (Director General) at the Italian Treasury. His formal titles were Managing Director, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International, and member of the “Group’s Commitment Committee”; his job, according to Goldman’s press release, was to “help the firm develop and execute business with major European corporations and with governments and government agencies worldwide.” ...

Presumably this means that Mr. Draghi will have to answer a series of embarrassing questions, should he wish to continue pursuing the presidency of the ECB, along the following lines.

1. Was he aware of the Goldman-Greece deal(s)? (Given that he was involved in management for Goldman – and that these deals reportedly made $300m for the firm – he surely knew what was going on.)

2. Did he attempt to stop it or prevent further such deals? If not, why not? ...

5. Are there are other Greece-type deals, involving other EU countries (or anyone else), that he would care to discuss in detail? ...

Being associated with Goldman Sachs is now beyond awkward. For someone aiming high in the public sphere, work experience at the top levels of Goldman is fast becoming a toxic asset.

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/15/fallout-from-goldman-greece-affair-widens-impact-on-the-european-central-bank/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BaselineScenario+%28The+Baseline+Scenario%29
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:18 AM
Response to Reply #24
26. Unless You're in USA
Then it's straight to the White House staff.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:17 AM
Response to Reply #15
25. Round up the Usual Suspect
A single rogue trader can bring down a bank - remember the case of Barings. But a single rogue bank can bring down the world's financial system.

Goldman will dismiss this as "business as usual" and, to be sure, a few phone calls around Washington will help ensure that Goldman's primary supervisor - now the Fed - looks the other way.

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/14/goldman-goes-rogue-%E2%80%93-special-european-audit-to-follow/
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #15
31. Goldman Sachs Shorted Greek Debt After It Arranged Those Shady Swaps
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-shorted-greek-debt-after-it-arranged-those-shady-swaps-2010-2

Goldman Sachs arranged swaps that effectively allowed Greece to borrow 1 billion Euros without adding to its official public debt. While it arranged the swaps, Goldman also sought to buy insurance on Greek debt and engage in other trades to protect itself against the risk of a default on those swaps. Eventually, Goldman sold the swaps to the national bank of Greece.

Despite its role in creating swaps that may have allowed the Greek government to mask its growing debts, Goldman has no net exposure to a default on Greek debt, a person familiar with the matter says.

Goldman is “flat” when it comes to Greece, the person said. Which is to say, its long and short exposure to a potential Greek default are in balance.

In light of this combination of arranging structured financing while shorting the customer's debt, Goldman may find itself in a familiarly uncomfortable public light. Goldman has come under a barrage of criticism for structuring mortgage backed securities while its traders shorted that market. As a result of those short trades, Goldman lost far less money than its rivals when the US housing market imploded.

Something similar is at work here and the criticism will likely follow along the same track. Goldman was uniquely well-positioned to understand that Greek debt service obligations were higher than they would have appeared just by looking at its official debt levels, making Greece a riskier credit. This knowledge may have allowed Goldman to acquire credit protection on the trades on the cheap.

To our eyes, this entire line of criticism is off-base. Take mortgages. While some media accounts claim that Goldman made billions by shorting the housing market, the truth is that Goldman actually lost money during the worst of the mortgage meltdown. The billions it made on short trades were out-weighed by the billions lost on the long trades.

Similarly, Goldman may have sought to protect itself against heavy losses from Greece because it was uniquely exposed to those losses. The terms of the swap meant that Goldman essentially made an upfront payment to Greece in exchange for a revenue stream later. If Greece defaulted on its obligation to keep that revenue stream flowing, Goldman stood to lose money. In such circumstances, Goldman’s short-trades against Greek debt may be nothing more than prudent precaution. It is quite common for banks to take out credit protection--that is, buy short trades--against assets such as loan and swap obligations due to them.

Goldman first put the swap in place in 2001. It immediately sought to hedge its risk to the Greek obligations by making side deals with other parties. In 2005, the entire swap was sold to the National Bank of Greece. But last year, Goldman was back talking to the Greek government about a similar deal that would delay debt obligations.

In some ways, this latest “scandal” must feel like déjà vu for Goldman Sachs. The Greek swap transactions were first reported in risk magazine as far back as 2003. Der Spiegel picked them up recently, the New York Times revisited the story on Sunday, and today Bloomberg has a hold of it.
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #31
75. I have no problem with their hedging an insurable interest, if that's what they did --
shouldn't that be easy to determine?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:44 AM
Response to Original message
18. For some comedy relief:
Under the heading of "Economic Blogs" you will find a new addition called the "Stand-Up Economist". This guy, Yoram Bauman, is hilarious. Most recently added to YouTube is his six minute bit at the most recent economic conference in Atlanta.

Take a break and have some fun.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 06:48 AM
Response to Original message
20. Paul Volcker is very consistent with his message.
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 06:48 AM by ozymandius
From The Big Picture:
Volcker: Let Big Financial Firms Fail
“If a big non-bank institution gets in trouble and threatens the whole system, there ought to be some authority that can step in, take over that organization and liquidate it or merge it — not save it. It’s called euthanasia, not a rescue.”

-Paul Volcker said on CNN.
Volcker continues to argue for reinstating Glass Steagall — separating investment firms engaged in market speculation from commercial, deposit-taking banks.
More at link...
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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:04 AM
Response to Reply #20
33. But you and I both know that will NEVER happen Ozy. At least not the way things are now.
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 08:05 AM by TheWatcher
And besides, when your country's economy is practically CONTROLLED by one (Goldman Sachs), that doesn't help either.

OH, But THAT'S RIGHT.

All they had to do was start calling themselves a BANK.

Problem solved.

Our entire economy is at the mercy of Bankster psychos playing "Back Room" Parlor Games leveraged at 30-1, using a supposedly "legitimate" Free Market System (Casino) as a front.

Until we re-instate Glass Steagall, and somehow wrest control of our Republic from the Mafia that runs it, we'll be eating a lot of cake for the foreseeable future.

But we'll have PLENTY of "entertainment" to satiate us in the meantime.

Just ask the 108,000 Record Crowd that attended the NBA All-Star game this weekend.

NO GREAT RECESSION HERE!

:crazy:

(OK, I'll stop now. Insomnia and Nuclear Latte do not mix. (Well, they don't mix WELL.)

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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:15 AM
Response to Reply #20
36. I just have to wonder what threats were made to Obama behind closed doors
in order to keep the status quo and kick former advisers like Volcker to the curb.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:22 AM
Response to Reply #36
39. Something Worse Than This SNAFU? The MInd Boggles
Our next successful Democratic President will be a childless, single orphan with a lingering, terminal disease and no friends.

As long as that candidate is a Populist, I'm voting for him/her.
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #39
60. I thought Tansy was running on "The Virtual SMW Platform," LOL.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #60
64. I is, I is
I'm dealing with the fallout from this horrible horrible software conversion at the place where I still get a paycheck every now and then, and then I'm having a visitor for a few days in early March, but after that, the gloves come off, so to speak, and AnneD and I will take this show on the cyber road one way or t'other.

Tansy Gold, who is neither an orphan or childless and doesn't think she has a lingering, terminal illness either.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #64
67. If you need a good campaign manager.....
Look somewhere else. I have a long history of running losing campaigns!

:hi:
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #67
80. As long as you...
keep those photos to yourself......:evilgrin:
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:02 AM
Response to Original message
21. Debt: 02/11/2010 12,349,324,464,284.28 (UP 8,754,264,877.96) (Thu)
(Up some. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day after president's day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,848,015,306,528.53 + 4,501,309,157,755.75
UP 7,265,093,186.33 + UP 1,489,171,691.63

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,711,838 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,002.76.
A family of three owes $120,008.27. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,775,657,325.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,128,003,949.90.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,059,358,661.19.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 91 reports in 134 days of FY2010 averaging 4.83B$ per report, 3.28B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,074 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/11/2010 12,349,324,464,284.28 BHO (UP 1,722,447,415,371.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,439,495,460,772.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,197,133,158,074.35 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/22/2010 -000,070,049,877.74 ----
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********

64,787,534,960.34 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4266307&mesg_id=4266460
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #21
81. Debt: 02/12/2010 12,351,624,191,901.06 (UP 2,299,727,616.78) (Fri)
(A little down, a little up. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,847,910,569,671.71 + 4,503,713,622,229.35
DOWN 104,736,856.82 + UP 2,404,464,473.60

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,720,478 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,009.09.
A family of three owes $120,027.26. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,628,506,856.84.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,015,188,590.24.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,950,182,506.69.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 92 reports in 135 days of FY2010 averaging 4.80B$ per report, 3.27B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,073 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/12/2010 12,351,624,191,901.06 BHO (UP 1,724,747,142,987.98 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,441,795,188,389.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,194,483,287,126.63 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----
02/11/2010 +007,265,093,186.33 ------------*********
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---

64,752,847,981.26 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4271087&mesg_id=4271144
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
23. France sets pensions reform deadline
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa17b198-1a62-11df-a2e3-00144feab49a.html

Nicolas Sarkozy fired the starting gun for unpopular pensions reform on Monday. The French president set a tight deadline for one of the most challenging reforms since his election in 2007, saying his government would present a draft bill on changes to the pensions system in early September.

“If we want to save the pensions system, we can no longer defer decisions,” Mr Sarkozy said after a meeting with unions and employers to set the social agenda for 2010.

He sought to deflect union opposition by promising not to force through changes during the traditional summer break.

Consultations between the government and social partners would begin in April, and reform adopted by the end of the year, he said.

The need to resolve the increasing pensions deficit has become urgent as the government attempts to rein in public spending and reduce its crippling debt burden.

The pensions system is forecast to return a deficit of €10.7bn this year and will face financing needs of €100bn by 2050, unless changes are made. France currently enjoys one of the lowest mandatory retirement ages in Europe at 60 years – compared with 67 in Denmark, 65 in Sweden and plans in the UK to go to 68 by 2045.

France’s two most powerful unions, the CGT and the CFDT, recognise changes must be made but they are divided over the solution.

All unions fiercely oppose a simple increase in the retirement age, but some unionists speculate they would be prepared to extend the contribution period if certain conditions were to be met.

Mr Sarkozy’s gesture alleviated intensifying concern within union ranks that the government would repeat summer guerrilla tactics used to push through two previous pensions reforms.

It could also help take the fire out of a day of national protest planned at the end of next month.

But it also comes in the run-up to regional elections next month, in which Mr Sarkozy’s UMP party could fare badly. Opinion polls consistently show the French public opposes pensions reform, with almost 60 per cent against any increase in the retirement age.

The president’s conciliatory comments, coming after weeks of government- fuelled rumours that reform would be pushed through in July, were also seen by some commentators as one way to destabilise unions and to keep social protest to a minimum in advance of the electoral challenge.

“The president has two discourses,” says Guy Groux, research director at the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po. “The unions know reform is necessary, but they are struggling to present a united front because they do not know which strategy Nicolas Sarkozy will choose once the regionals are over. They are being forced to adapt their strategy to the strategy of the government.”

Others who were present at the meeting on Monday also voiced concern that the September deadline could prove difficult to meet.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:17 AM
Response to Reply #23
38. Seems that France's government no longer represents the people.
"Opinion polls consistently show the French public opposes pensions reform, with almost 60 per cent against any increase in the retirement age."

What is the use of government if it is NOT there to serve the people?

If it is there to serve the banks and their manipulated debt than the government might as well call itself a bank and NOT a government.

It seems to me that France would be a little more careful about how it treats its unwashed masses, they have a history. Wasn't the guillotine invented in France to serve the purpose of quickly killing established government rulers?
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:23 AM
Response to Reply #38
40. I Recall Rumors that France's Election Was Diebolded
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 09:03 AM
Response to Reply #40
53. No, not so.
Pension reform appears to be on the table Europe-wide.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 09:04 AM
Response to Reply #53
55. But that Was the Reason Why Sarcozy Got In
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #38
76. But what else can pensions do, now that their funds have been looted, too?
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:34 AM
Response to Original message
28. Columbus Ohio National Century Financial - Rebecca Parrett's sister arrested

2/13/10 Sister was e-mailing fugitive, feds say
Women allegedly planned to meet soon in Mexico

The sister of the fugitive National Century founder had planned to move to Mexico to be with her by Valentine's Day, officials said.

But yesterday, Linda Case, 66, of Grove City, was arrested at her home and jailed pending a detention hearing on Tuesday in federal court.

Case, who was charged with obstruction of justice and lying to investigators, was accused of e-mailing her sister Rebecca S. Parrett regularly since 2008.

Federal agents intercepted the e-mails, which indicated that Parrett was hiding in Mexico.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Douglas W. Squires, one of the prosecutors who handled the National Century trials, said yesterday that he couldn't discuss Case's arrest.

Parrett, 61, has been a fugitive since disappearing after her trial in March 2008. She was convicted of crimes connected to the $1.9 billion fraud involving National Century Financial Enterprises, a company that provided financing to small health-care providers.

She was sentenced last year in absentia to 25 years in prison for nine fraud-related convictions.

National Century collapsed in November 2002, and at least 275 health-care companies failed as a result. It was the largest case of private-sector fraud in U.S. history, and 10 people were convicted because of it.

According to the criminal complaint against Case, she has been communicating with Parrett in Mexico since at least September 2008 but repeatedly has denied to law enforcement that she had any contact with Parrett or knew her location.

As recently as Jan. 25, Case told federal agents that her sister might be living in Nicaragua or Costa Rica. In the same interview, Case said she was planning to move to Veracruz, Mexico, with her daughter and son-in-law.

The complaint says deputy U.S. marshals read e-mails between Case and Parrett, who they said used code words and phrases to disguise details. In the e-mails, Parrett told Case how to conceal their e-mail communications and said she had moved several times because she feared being recognized.

Case and Parrett had planned to meet in Mexico, the e-mails indicated, and Parrett wanted her mother to move there also.

In the back-and-forth between the sisters in September, Parrett advised Case to get a second mortgage on her Grove City home to finance the move to Mexico.

"Just don't let people know where you are going and what you are doing," Parrett wrote.

Later that month, Parrett suggested that Case try to bring travel documents for Parrett to use, the complaint says.

"I've gotten by all this time without ever using an ID, amazing," Parrett wrote. "The thing I cannot do is travel and there is a particular place I would really like to go further south but I will explain more later."

On Jan. 18, Case wrote to Parrett that she would travel soon to Mexico with her seven cats and a dog and cross the border at McAllen, Texas. Once she was settled, she planned to fly back to the United States and "take Mom back down with me," according to the complaint.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2010/02/13/parrott_sister.ART_ART_02-13-10_B1_RLGJ2VI.html?sid=101


Link backwards to previous articles
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3860332&mesg_id=3860388


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TheWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 07:35 AM
Response to Original message
29. Today's Sheeple Graze Material: Europe May Collapse But Barclay's OK, So Everything Is Fine.
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 07:56 AM by TheWatcher
Translation: RECOVERY!!!!!! BUY STOCKS!!!!!!!!!

:eyes:

From Today's Financial Weekly Reader:

World markets buoyed by banks despite Greek fears

World markets buoyed by bank stocks despite ongoing Greek debt fears (AND Spain, AND Ireland, AND Portugal, etc, etc, etc)

LONDON (AP) -- World stock markets mostly rose Tuesday after strong earnings from British bank Barclays PLC and ahead of Wall Street's open following a public holiday in the U.S.

However, investors, particularly in Europe, remained wary about the Greek debt crisis and the associated response from the European Union.

(But that won't last long, because as long as Banksters can roll around naked in their ill-begotten, fake "earnings", the rest of the world can burn to the ground, and it will be The Greatest Recovery Mankind Has Ever Seen)

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares led the way, rising 45.18 points, or 0.9 percent, to 5,212.65. Barclay's spiked 6 percent after it reported a fourth quarter profit of 6.9 billion pounds ($10.8 billion), more than eight times larger than a year earlier, largely because of the sale of one of its businesses.

Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, which is over 80 percent owned by the British government, and Lloyds Banking Group PLC, which is 41 percent state-owned, both advanced in Barclays' slipstream.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-markets-buoyed-by-banks-apf-3919488245.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=


Happy Hunting Marketeers.

And don't worry, The Banksters Love You and would NEVER hurt you. We should just bow down, roll over, do what they say, and ENJOY THE "RECOVERY"(tm)!!!!!!!!!!!!111111
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #29
52. OOH! OOH! OOH! Let Me!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gK_p1vay-AY


(The devil made me do it)

Translated Lyrics: (when sung)

(English):
Sheep may safely graze
where a good shepherd watches.
Where rulers govern well
we may feel peace and rest
and what makes countries happy

(German):
Schafe können sicher weiden,
Wo ein guter Hirte wacht.
Wo Regenten wohl regieren,
Kann man Ruh und Friede spüren
Und was Länder glücklich macht.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #29
62. A list was published a while back, about the 10 banks that own the Fed.
Barclays was one of them, but more interesting, they seemed to own a sizable chunk of all the other "owners".
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:26 AM
Response to Original message
41. FDIC to lease huge building near Chicago

2/3/10 FDIC to open office in Schaumburg

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is opening a satellite office in Schaumburg that will accommodate up to 500 temporary staffers and contractors.

The banking regulator recently began running recruiting advertisements for the new office, saying it's looking for people with skills and experience in such areas as loan management, contract oversight and asset marketing. Its Web site lists more than 330 job openings in Schaumburg.

The FDIC, which has a downtown office, said the new location will open in March. It will manage receiverships and liquidate assets from failed Midwest banks.

That suggests that the pace of Illinois bank failures is likely to remain brisk. In 2009, regulators seized 21 banks statewide, topped only by Georgia.

The FDIC's new office is at 200 N. Martingale Road. It said it's occupying 105,700 square feet of the 150,705-square-foot building, or seven out of its 11 floors. It's a three-year lease with an option to renew one to two years.

The FDIC has similar offices in Irvine, Calif., and Jacksonville, Fla., and the number of bank failures in those states picked up dramatically after the FDIC opened those quarters.

In 2008, only about a half-dozen banks failed in California despite being home to some of the nation's most overheated real estate markets, according to bank data tracker SNL Financial. In 2009, coinciding with the opening of a West Coast FDIC office, the failure numbers tripled, SNL pointed out. Similarly, after adding its Jacksonville office, the regulator had more resources to handle collapsing lenders, and bank seizures in Florida also became more common.

People interested in the FDIC jobs should call 1-877-ASK-FDIC.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-0203-notebook-financial-20100202,0,3457297.story



A notice in the Chicago SunTimes

2/3/10
BIG DEPOSIT: This could end up as one of the largest suburban leases of the year, but it can't be good. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has leased 150,000 square feet, the entire building, at the Woodfield Corporate Center, 200 N. Martingale in Schaumburg. The federal guarantor of bank accounts needs what it calls a "temporary Midwest satellite office" as it processes receiverships and asset sales involving Midwestern banks. The FDIC said it will move in beginning in March and that the office will have up to 500 workers.

KBS Realty Advisors of Newport Beach, Calif., owns the building. Its broker in the deal was CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., while Grubb & Ellis Co. represented the FDIC.

http://www.suntimes.com/business/roeder/2026026,CST-NWS-roeder03web.article



There must be some major bank closings coming






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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #41
42. Picture of the FDIC building
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mrdmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #42
77. Watch that building get to small really quick!!!
Please excuse the sarcastic remark, but some people are attempting to sweep a ton of elephant shit under the entry way rug thinking nobody will notice and the problem will just work out!!!
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #41
47. it's 1990 all over again!
been there (Austin), done that.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #47
65. Or 1992
Lincoln Savings/Resolution Trust (Phoenix) veteran here.

But I'm a Chicago NW suburbs native, so I know Schaumburg well -- grandparents lived in Roselle for many years -- and I am NOT GOING BACK TO SNOW.


Tansy Gold, will put up with the pukes in Arizona
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 09:04 AM
Response to Reply #41
54. If It Weren't In Chicago--and I Knew Anything About Accounting...
The Younger Kid says Chicago is a happening place for twenty-somethings. What would I know, or care?
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
43. dollar watch


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.158 Change -0.174 (-0.22%)

US Dollar Outlook Depends on Federal Reserve – What Can We Expect?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2010-02-12-2324-US_Dollar_Outlook_Depends_on.html

The US Dollar finished the week almost exactly where it began, confounding traders with volatile short-term moves yet remaining nearly unchanged. Similarly choppy price action in the S&P 500 underlined financial markets’ indecision and gave few clues on future short-term direction. It seems that financial markets have reached somewhat of an impasse. On the one hand, months and months of stock market advances leave more medium-term momentum to the topside. On the other, the S&P 500 and other major indices remain in a clear bear market and risk further losses following a fairly long period of appreciation. Determining which scenario is most likely is critical to establishing a clear trading bias for the US Dollar. As one of the lowest-yielding major world currencies, the Greenback often falls victim to speculative selling as traders buy higher-yielding currencies. Yet strong bouts of financial market risk aversion most often force substantive US Dollar rallies, and it remains critical to watch risk trends through short-term trading.

Options markets short-term volatility expectations on the US Dollar have pulled back in recent trade, but speculators should watch for any surprises in US economic event risk through the days ahead. Top events will start with Wednesday’s Minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee rate decision to be followed by the following days’ Producer and Consumer Price Index reports. All three events threaten to force substantive shifts in market interest rate expectations and, by extension, the US Dollar.

FX traders will watch whether the FOMC gives further hints on when it may begin raising interest rates in 2010, while any especially large surprises in PPI and CPI could likewise offer clues on the trajectory of central bank rates. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently outlined the steps the central bank could take to begin withdrawing massive monetary policy stimulus in an address to the US legislature. How soon those plans can be put into action wholly depends on the pace of economic recovery and trends in national prices. Recent disappointments in US Nonfarm Payrolls data would imply that the FOMC is in no hurry to tighten monetary conditions. Yet it serves to note that Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig dissented in a 9-1 vote to keep the Fed Funds rate near zero for “an extended period”. Whether or not his relatively hawkish bias will gain broader traction is an important topic and it will be important to monitor the statements from the FOMC minutes.

If the Fed shows any willingness to tighten rates through the coming months or we see any substantive surprises in PPI and CPI data, the fragile US S&P 500 could break considerably lower and send the US dollar higher. Overnight Index Swaps show zero percent probability that the Fed will raise interest rates through the coming months. Stock markets rarely respond positively to higher borrowing costs, and any signs that rate hikes could come sooner could easily crimp risk sentiment. Given clear indecision across financial markets, clarification could spark the trends that most traders crave.



...more...


Daily Sound Bites 02.16

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-02-16-1200-Daily_Sound_Bites_02_16.html



...more...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:37 AM
Response to Original message
46. Michael Pollan Intrerviewed by Harry Kreisler aout Food, Technology and Economics
http://www.alternet.org/food/145687/michael_pollan%3A_forget_nutrition_charts%2C_eat_what_grandma_said_is_good_for_you?page=entire

I think if there's a failing of American journalism, and there are many, one is a disregard for history--very often in the origins of a phenomenon you discover the meaning of a phenomenon. And so, it's a perspective I always cover. I'm always very interested in digging back to find the history of whatever I'm writing about. So, even if it's a scientific subject, it's really important to understand the history behind it.

HK: For instance, history can make us aware that the way we get our food today really goes back to the early '70s, and that the appointment of Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz was a pivotal turning point.

MP: Well, that's a great example. We all know that subsidies are part of the problem and a waste of money. And then you dig back and you realize: oh, we changed every thing in the 1970s; we changed our agricultural policies. And there is a real turning point in the history of American agriculture and food, and that is when Earl Butz was appointed by President Nixon with the explicit mandate of forcing down the price of food, because we'd had this about food inflation. Americans took to the streets because food got so expensive in 1973. Nixon hired Earl Butz, who was very skillful in agricultural economics, and he kind of redesigned the whole system of crop support in this country in a way that stimulated farmers.

We used to hold up prices, basically, and he moved from that system to subsidizing crops and encouraging farmers to overproduce, to produce as much as possible. He was the guy who said: get bigger, get out, plant fence row to fence row, move toward monocultures, just crank out that corn and soy, and he redesigned the structure of the subsidies to encourage that.

And you can date the obesity epidemic and so many problems of the American food system to those policies--they are inadvertent consequences of what was a very popular thing, which was driving down food prices. Which he did. Americans only spend 9.5 percent of our income on food today. That's less than anybody in the history of civilization, and we have Earl Butz to thank.

HK: In understanding food and agribusiness, politics is very important.

MP: We're not aware of it, but food, like everything, is political. It is the biggest industry in the country; it's the most essential thing. We've had the luxury of not having to think about it for the last thirty years, thanks to Earl Butz and having all this cheap food around. But you know, if we as a society have to live without gasoline, which is unimaginable, we will figure out how to do it. We did it for millions of years. We've never lived without food. Food is really essential, and when you have anything that's essential, there is enormous political and economic forces that contend about how it will be organized.

In the last thirty years, we have had this kind of agriculture industrial complex, which by some measures has worked quite well. It's kept the price of food low; it's kept the food industry healthy; it's given us a lot of power overseas--we're big food exporters--but what we're getting in touch with, I think, is that the by-products of that system, or the unintended consequences and costs, are catching up--every thing from obesity to diabetes.

Because that was a system that specifically encouraged the consumption of cheap corn sweeteners, high fructose corn syrup, hydrogenated oils from soy, processed foods of all kinds, a lot of cheap meat. So, there's been a public health impact that's dramatic. That is what's bankrupting the health care system: the fact that half of us suffer from chronic diseases linked to the diet.

There are $250 billion a year in costs tied to that. So, that's one set of problems.

The other set, of course, is environmental. The food system contributes more greenhouse gases than anything else, any other industry, and that happens at every level. It happens at the field, the way we fertilize crops, in the amount of energy that goes to produce that fertilizer, the way we use machinery on the farms, the way we process the food, the amount of animals, and the methane we release. It's about a third of greenhouse gases come from the food system, and transporting the food all around the world, not to mention the agricultural pollution. Feed lots are the biggest source of pollution we have.

I mean, it's quite an accomplishment that you can go to a restaurant, eat a fast food meal, a big chunk of meat, French fries, large soda, for less than the minimum wage. In the history of humankind, that's quite an achievement, but it's come at a very high cost, and that cost, I think, is what we're getting in touch with right now.

HK: You've suggested that part of the problem is that industrial capitalism and agro-capitalism essentially take a discovery and then find the best way to make the most money as soon as possible ....

MP: With incomplete information.

HK: Right.

MP: Well, genetically modified crops is another great example. We figured out something about genes, and we understand some connection between a gene, a protein, and a trait, and so we figured out a couple crops where we could introduce new genes from other crops. It works, but we overlook a whole lot of complexity, which we just dismiss as static. Why is it that when we introduce this gene, 90 percent of the time you get a freak plant?

Well, we don't really know; it has something to do with gene expression; it has something to do with junk DNA. Look, reductive science is very powerful, but it's always important to understand that you're missing some of the complexity. When you apply that reductive science you can get into trouble because you're mistaking what you know for all there is to know. So, there's a lack of humility involved, and there is a tendency to apply these things long before we know what's working and what's not working.

HK: A key turning point here is the Haber-Bosch process, which you've written about. Talk a little about that because it is a major turning point in seeing synthetic fertilizer as the be-all and end-all of every thing.

MP: The great crisis of 1900 was there's not enough nitrogen to feed everybody. Before then, all the nitrogen that was used in agriculture came from bacteria in the soil fixing it. That was proving to be inadequate; crops were failing. The Haber-Bosch process is basically the fixing of nitrogen, synthetic nitrogen, and it was a great invention; by some estimates 40 percent of the people on earth are here because of that process.

However, it's a great example of a powerful technology that's had a lot of negative effects. Synthetic nitrogen, when it oxidizes in the soil, becomes nitrous oxide, which is a very potent greenhouse gas. Nitrogen fertilizer became so cheap and is used so profligately that it runs down the Mississippi River and into the Gulf of Mexico, where it has created this dead zone. And over time we have found that using too much synthetic nitrogen ruins the structure of the soil; it becomes too salty and basically nothing will grow. And you have the declining yield curve that we've seen all through the green revolution countries because of too much nitrogen in the fertilizer.

The green revolution, for example, is the application of these technologies to the developing world: hybrid seed, fertilizer, ammonium nitrate fertilizer, and irrigation techniques, and growing in monocultures. There're a lot of very good intentions. There was a serious goal of feeding the world, but over the long term, it's been a disaster.

So, a lot of these technologies are double-edged swords. They're wonderful and powerful, and they're horrible and disastrous.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #46
49. I have a Client Who Was Telling Me About Her "Nutritionist"
My client is in her 70's, I estimate. She never learned to cook, so we've been doing cooking lessons--basic simple stuff.

Client is pleased that she has not had a weight gain this year during SADD season. Also says she's never eaten better (tasting) in her adult life.

She goes to this U of M nutritionist, who expects her to lose 50 pounds in 25 weeks "to prevent diabetes". Client does not have diabetes, but a fear of cancer due to genetic trends in her family. And she's on medication known to trigger appetite (not for that reason).

So the expert nutritionist gives her recipes for "Splenda" and food portions that wouldn't keep anybody alive, let alone sane.

I'm not a registered anything, but it is positively insane to expect a person in general good health to go through contortions like this to live up to some "scientific" notion of how to eat. Half a hotdog bun--please! Just what a person on depression medication needs is a real physical reason to be depressed, not to mention starved. 2 pounds a week is 7000 calories. An arthritic lady of elderly years is not about to become a marathon runner. She's very sensible about things like food choices and portion sizes, etc., too.

WHAT WAS THIS IDIOT "expert" THINKING? AND WHY IS THIS NUTRITIONIST PERMITTED TO PRACTICE ANYTHING?

It's just like the economy--the "experts" in charge are all "very bad wizards".
In other words, not wizards at all. Just carny showmen in way over their heads.
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TalkingDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:28 AM
Response to Reply #49
59. Similar experiences here
I am the "nutritionist" in our house. It started as an exploration of how I could cure the Spousal Unit's cruddy breaking toenails. Along the way I cured his eczema (or at least keep it at bay), got his weight below what he weighed in high school, and am keeping his half century body playing full court basketball and outrunning guys 30 years his junior. He is trim, fit and takes no medication.

When he started working for the county, he filled out paperwork for a yearly health survey. He lost "points" because he doesn't eat enough "grains", because we do not eat wheat (or dairy) in any way, shape or form. And many times don't eat a grain with our evening meals. What do we eat? Lentils, peas, beans, any vegetable known to man and some meat.

He half-jokingly said he didn't want to tell me the results of the survey, knowing I would react...ahem...strongly.

On the other hand, she holds seminars with county employees to discuss healthy nutrition and serves Chik-Fil-A with the choice of sweet tea or soda. No unsweet tea, no water. She lists the local chain grocery stores as places to buy nutritious food, completely ignoring the health food stores in town and in the surrounding counties.

So I send him stories I find at various news sources on how to deep fry everything or how to make a barbeque item with fried bacon wrapped in sausage, wrapped in woven bacon and suggest he pass them along to her.

And splenda is poison.

Have her look at stevia as an option for a low impact sweetener. (or learn to do without the sweet, as we have)
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #59
66. The St Pete Times ran an article on food at the State Fair last week.
Deep fried butter.

Bacon Double Cheeseburgers served between 2 Krispy Kreme donuts.

Chocolate covered bacon.

Yummmm......

A storm blew through last week, and collapsed a big food tent. Do you think they pissed off the food gods?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #66
70. I am quite surprised a meteor the size of Gibraltar did not land on the tent.
Deep fried butter.

Bacon Double Cheeseburgers served between 2 Krispy Kreme donuts.

....
:puke: :puke: :puke: My kitchen gods would be very angry, nay, furious over such a waste of food.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #66
74. "Bacon Double Cheeseburgers served between 2 Krispy Kreme donuts."
Edited on Tue Feb-16-10 01:20 PM by Hugin
Ouch, that made my pancreas hurt. :o
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Po_d Mainiac Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
61. "CASINO": Don't Let Wall Street Gamble America
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SSbKYBjuGE&feature=player_embedded

with a huffpost link

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/16/americans-united-for-chan_n_463550.html

...............
Tis a shame that 30 seconds is extent of the sheeples attention span
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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 10:45 AM
Response to Original message
63. International Demand for U.S. Financial Assets Slowed (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1mKfP3W.Ang&pos=2
By Vincent Del Giudice

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- International demand for long-term U.S. financial assets grew in December at a slower pace than a month earlier, as China sold U.S. government securities, a U.S. Treasury Department report showed.

Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $63.3 billion for the month, compared with net purchases of $126.4 billion in November, the Treasury said in Washington. Including short-term securities such as bills and stock swaps, foreigners purchased a net $60.9 billion in December, compared with net buying of $30.7 billion the previous month.

China cut its holdings of U.S. government debt in December to the lowest level since February 2009 and Japan was a net buyer for the six month in the past seven. As the financial crisis eased, some central banks that poured money into Treasuries have been investing reserves elsewhere, economists said.

“Clearly the Chinese are looking elsewhere at the margin for investments,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. LLC in New York. “Central banks in general have been scaling back their exposure to Treasuries, no doubt related to a reversal of the flight-to-quality trade from late 2008 and early 2009 while also reducing their exposure to bills.”

China was a seller of U.S. Treasuries for a second straight month, with sales in December totaling a net $34.2 billion, the report showed. Japan replaced China as the top foreign holder of U.S. government debt, after net purchases of $11.5 billion raised its total to $768.8 billion. China’s holdings totaled $755.4 billion.

<SNIP>
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 11:47 AM
Response to Original message
68. 11:47am - It's all good!
Dow 10,230 +131 +1.29%
Nasdaq 2,207 +24 +1.09%
S&P 500 1,090 +14 +1.35%
GlobalDow 1,882 +26 +1.42%
Gold 1,117 +27 +2.50%
Oil 77.01 +2.88 +3.89%


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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Feb-16-10 12:29 PM
Response to Original message
72. Janet Tavakoli: Wall Street Is A High-On-Crack Driver That Just Smashed Into Your House

2/16/10 Wall Street Is A High-On-Crack Driver That Just Smashed Into Your House
By Janet Tavakoli

If a high-on-crack driver crashed his speeding rental car into your house and killed your spouse, you would be outraged if law enforcers took bribes and gave the driver a pass on a blood test. If the judge then merely fined the killer and ordered you to pay it, you would appeal, wondering what happened to justice. If the government then handed the crack-driver keys to a bigger rental car and presented you with the rental bill, you would certainly protest.

How is it, then, that you have remained largely silent in the face of the same sort of behavior by Wall Street and Washington? Bonus-seeking bankers careened off the right path and ran Ponzi schemes that nearly ruined our economy. Bureaucrats and elected officials bailed them out without demanding consequences. Bankers are revving their engines again.

more, and a lovely picture of Ms. Tavakoli
http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-is-a-high-on-crack-driver-that-just-smashed-into-your-house-2010-2




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