Tennessee poll shows Bush, Kerry in virtual tie

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/03/10/politics1047EST0574.DTL

President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are in a virtual dead heat in Tennessee as support for the war in Iraq wanes and worries about the economy increase, according to a poll.

Bush had the support of 48 percent and Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts senator and presumptive nominee, 44 percent, which was within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In 2000, Bush won Tennessee, defeating Democrat Al Gore in his home state.

The Middle Tennessee State University poll was conducted Feb. 16-28 and surveyed 701 voting-age state residents.

Among respondents, 47 percent said going to war against Iraq was worthwhile while 48 percent said it was not. In a survey last fall by the same researchers, 54 percent of respondents thought the war was worthwhile.

more

[phillybri]

1. I really wish Harold Ford could be the VP pick...

n/t

[Lars39]

2. State residents or state-wide residents?

A polling of state residents around the middle TN area where MTSU is located will get very different results than a polling of the state from one end to the other. Small sample, too.

[mobuto]

3. Has to be state-wide

a Middle TN poll would only be useful to campaigns trying to manage GOTV resources. That isn't at issue yet.

[Lars39]

8. It didn't read "state-wide", though.

And it really didn't give any info on exactly who at MTSU did the polling.

[mobuto]

9. From the website

The poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 16 to Feb. 28, 2004, by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 701 people age 18 or older whose telephone numbers had been chosen at random by a computer from among all possible telephone numbers in the state. The poll has an estimated error margin of ± 4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such as question wording, also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are greater for sample subgroups.

The sample varied somewhat from the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest available projections for age, race and gender proportions within the state. Such variation commonly occurs because certain demographic groups are more difficult to contact. The data were thus weighted to more closely match Census projections for these demographics. Here are the Census data, the sample data, and the weights


http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/mtpoll/s2004/MTSUPoll_Report_1_20040309_1230pm.htm

[Lars39]

10. Neat! Thanks for digging that up.

Helps explain why TN is such an...interesting place to live. :)

[mobuto]

11. Problem of course

is that these aren't likely voters, they're not even necessarily registered voters. These are just random adults who live in TN. It don't matter much what your position is if you don't vote.

[Lars39]

12. True.

Voter-registration drives will hopefully be met with interest this time around.

[lancdem]

4. That's excellent news

[Devil Dog Dem]

5. I try not to put too much stock in polls this far out, but the trend . . .

is undeniably bad for Bush. If he is polling like this in a state from the old confederacy he had been ramp up the gay marriage commercials and start pressing other wedge issues.

He's in serious trouble.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Bush is in serious trouble?

too bad. :evilgrin:

[NNN0LHI]

7. He is on cable talking about high unemployment in Ohio right now

Kerry has him talking about the last thing he wants to be talking about. Lack of jobs. He would much rather be talking about terra 24/7.

Don