STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 29

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 29, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 28, 2009

Dow... 9,762.69 -119.48 (-1.21%)
Nasdaq... 2,059.61 -56.48 (-2.67%)
S&P 500... 1,042.63 -20.78 (-1.95%)
Gold future... 1,031 -4.90 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.41 -0.04 (-1.02%)
30-Year Bond 4.26 -0.02 (-0.47%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Another Fundamental Look at the Recent Dow Non-Confirmation
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Much was made in June about the Dow non-confirmation as the Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded its May high while the Dow Jones Transportation Average did not. The non-confirmation was not an early warning sign that the market rally was finished, but rather warned of a short-term correction that ended with the Dow non-confirmation later resolved in late July as both averages exceeded their June highs.

Back in June I took a fundamental look at transportation data to help explain why the Dow Transports were lagging the Dow Industrials and to see if their weakness was pointing to something more onerous in the offing. At the time transportation data was showing signs of stabilization and leading transportation indicators were showing that improvement were likely to be seen over summer and into the fall, not giving any major warning signals. What appeared to be the real culprit for the Dow non-confirmation at the time was that the airline industry was severely lagging due to a strong advance in crude oil prices. The following commentary was given in June explaining this dichotomy:

A Fundamental Look at the Recent Dow Non-Confirmation (06/17/09)

While the fundamental data above points to a potential turn in transportation data in the months ahead, what is likely to have the greatest impact on the Dow Transports is an ease in oil prices. While the Dow Transports were unable to surpass their May highs, the Dow Jones US Railroad and Trucking Indices were able to advance to higher highs. The industry causing the greatest underperformance of the Dow Transports are the airlines, which failed not only to exceed their May highs but have already given back much of their gains off the March lows. The likely main culprit for a weak airline industry has been the strong showing in crude oil, whose recent strong advance over the last month coincided with weakness in the airlines.

The advance in crude is overdone and oil is likely to consolidate some of its recent gains as its three month rate of change was the greatest three month advance seen in nearly two decades. One has to go back to the Persian Gulf War in 1990 for a greater move. A decline in crude oil prices should help support the airlines and the overall transport sector, and coupled with improvement in transportation data may lead to strength in the Dow Transports to exceed their May highs, giving a more bullish tone to the stock markets in the latter part of the summer.

Crude oil did in fact sell off from roughly $75/barrel to $60/barrel in June and then consolidated for the next several months up until the recent breakout towards $80/barrel. Weaker oil prices and further stabilization in the economy were all the transports needed to breakout to a new high, with the general market along with it. However, we find ourselves in a similar situation where the Dow Transports this month did not exceed their September highs while the Dow Industrials did, leading to another Dow non-confirmation.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3
Briefing.com 1.3%
Consensus 1.4%
Prior 0.0%

08:30 GDP-Adv. Q3
Briefing.com 2.5%
Consensus 3.2%
Prior -0.7%

08:30 Initial Claims 10/24
Briefing.com 520K
Consensus 525K
Prior 531K

08:30 Continuing Claims 10/17
Briefing.com 5890K
Consensus 5905K
Prior 5923K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

20. Economy in U.S. Expands for First Time in More Than a Year

Economy in U.S. Expands for First Time in More Than a Year
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_bD4gJ8o4wc

The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, propelled by stimulus-driven gains in consumer spending and home building.

The world’s largest economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September, exceeding the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after shrinking the previous four quarters, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Household purchases climbed 3.4 percent, the most in more than two years.

Policy makers will now focus on whether the recovery, supported by federal assistance to the housing and auto industries, can be sustained into 2010 and generate jobs. The record $1.4 trillion budget deficit limits President Barack Obama’s options for more aid, while Federal Reserve officials try to convince investors that the central bank will exit emergency programs in time to prevent a pickup in inflation.

“People will, regardless of the number, call into question the durability of the recovery,” Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said before the report. “It’s going to be a little bit challenging for the consumer this quarter.”

this quarter???

[UpInArms]

22. Initial Claims @ 530,000 - 3Q GDP rises 3.5% (Huh?)

8:30a U.S. continuing claims down 148,000 to 5.80 mln

8:30a U.S. 4-week avg. claims down 6.000 to 526,250

8:30a Jobless claims above expectation of 524,000

8:30a U.S. jobless claims down 1,000 to 530,000

8:30a U.S. 3Q domestic prices rise 1.6% annualized

8:30a U.S. 3Q business investments fall 2.5% annualized

8:30a U.S. 3Q consumer spending up 3.4% annualized

8:30a U.S. GDP led by consumers, inventories, housing

8:30a U.S. 3Q final domestic sales up 3% annualized

8:30a U.S. GDP rises for first time in a year

8:30a U.S. 3Q GDP up 3.5% annualized as expected

[Roland99]

27. Stimulus, Cash for Clunkers, $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit.

Flukes surging the GDP. Disposable income dropped precipitously.

[DemReadingDU]

35. Karl Denninger: GDP Is..... Better Than Expected?

10/29/09 GDP Is..... Better Than Expected?
.
.
Looks good, right?

Hmmmm.... or is it?

Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.

....

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second.

Ok, from this we can compute a few things.

3.5 - 1.66 - (7.9 * 30%) = -0.53%

Now let's adjust for inventories:

The change in real private inventories added 0.94 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.42 percentage points from the second-quarter change.

-0.53% - 0.94% = -1.47%.

Ok, that's bad but not catastrophic and is an actual improvement compared to the second quarter. But....

Current-dollar personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $19.1 billion (0.6 percent) in the second.

Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $119.1 billion in the second.

Eeeeehhh... those are both going the wrong way. Taxes up, income down. And...

Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent.

That's worse. A lot worse. Disposable personal income decreased in nominal terms q/o/q by 5.9% while in real terms (inflation adjusted) it decreased q/o/q by 7.4%! That is an enormous swing in purchasing power and not in the right direction!

Personal outlays increased $148.2 billion (5.8 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $8.2 billion (0.3 percent) in the second. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $364.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with $533.1 billion in the second.

The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the second.

So into decreasing personal income and disposable personal income people tried to spend anyway. Best guess: most of this was "cash for clunkers", which is the worst sort of "spending" - it is the taking on of more debt by replacing a paid-off car with one that now comes with a shiny (and nasty) payment book. The Trade: Go long auto repo outfits (aside: as far as I know there are no publicly-traded repo companies.)

Nothing in here I like; to the contrary, this report sucks and on a drill-down appears to be full of outright lies.

more...
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1550-GDP-Is.....-Better-Than-Expected.html

[DemReadingDU]

30. Yahoo AP - Economy grows in 3Q, signals end of recession

10/29/09 Economy grows again in 3rd quarter, best showing in 2 years signals end of recession

The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes.

The Commerce Department's report Thursday delivered the strongest signal yet that the economy entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.

Many analysts expect the pace of the budding recovery to be plodding due to rising unemployment and continuing difficulties by both consumers and businesses to secure loans.

Still, the much-awaited turnaround ended the streak of four straight quarters of contracting economic activity, the first time that's happened on records dating to 1947.

It also marked the first increase since the spring of 2008, when the economy experienced a short-lived uptick in growth.

The third-quarter's performance -- the strongest since right before the country fell into recession in December 2007 -- was slightly better than the 3.3 percent growth rate economists expected.

Armed with cash from government support programs, consumers led the rebound in the third quarter, snapping up cars and homes.

edit to add 1 more paragraph

Christina Romer, Obama's top economist, in remarks last week said the government's stimulus spending already had its biggest impact and probably won't contribute to significant growth next year.

more...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Economy-grows-in-3Q-signals-apf-3242332094.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=


BEA News Release
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hangs below $78 amid demand doubts

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hung below $78 a barrel Thursday in Asia as an unexpected jump in U.S. gasoline supplies cast doubt on the strength of a recovery in crude demand.

.....
The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that gasoline stocks rose 1.7 million barrels last week while analysts had expected a fall of 1 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Crude supplies rose 900,000 barrels last week, the EIA said.

.....
In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 0.1 cent to $1.998 a gallon. Gasoline for November delivery dropped 1.3 cents to $1.9734 a gallon.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Shell Doesn’t Expect ‘Quick’ Recovery in Demand as Net Falls

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, reported a 62 percent plunge in third- quarter earnings and said a “quick recovery” in energy demand and prices is unlikely.

Net income fell to $3.25 billion from $8.45 billion a year earlier, The Hague-based company said in a statement today. The shares slid the most in almost three months in London trading.

Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser said the outlook “remains very uncertain” given forecasts that demand for crude will fall the most this year since 1980. Shell is cutting 5,000 jobs, equivalent to about 5 percent of its workforce, and has reduced operating costs by about $1 billion to counter a slump in demand for fuels to run cars and factories.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adyofagOniQs

[ozymandius]

4. Obama seeks new powers to dismantle nonbank firms

WASHINGTON – A year after Lehman Brothers collapsed, helping to trigger the worst financial crisis in seven decades, the Obama administration is pressing Congress for the power to dismantle other nonbank firms considered so large and influential that they could bring down the entire economy.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was asking a House panel on Thursday to pass legislation that would enable federal regulators to identify and monitor big financial firms and step in to wind them down before they collapse.

The proposal, worked out in an agreement with House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., also will give new powers to the Federal Reserve to enforce tougher requirements for these "too-big-to-fail" companies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091029/ap_on_go_co/us_financial_overhaul

[ozymandius]

8. Congress and TBTF – Bring in the Bomb Squad

from The Big Picture:

Joshua Rosner examines the House regulatory reform bill, which does not, in its current form, acknowledge that “Too Big to Fail” is too big to exist.

The House draft bill written by Rep. Barney Frank (D – MA) – along with several former Fed attorneys and Treasury staff and consultants — ignores fundamental reality: You don’t employ a bomb squad to sit around and wait for a bomb to explode, you engage them to dismantle it as soon as they find one.

Unfortunately, this bill is one more act of sleight of hand by a congress that, to the detriment of the public, fails to see that banks are there to serve the public good and can be regulated with such a goal. An honest bill would recognize that any institution that is “Too Big to Fail” should be given economic ‘incentives’ (through prohibitively high capital levels and insurance assessments) to shrink or sell off business units. The notion that we do not have the right to break up anti-competitive and oligo-polistic businesses flies in the face of antitrust laws and ignores the valuable lessons in growth demonstrated by Teddy Roosevelt’s trust-busting. Those legislators who are truly seeking to protect the public interest and to be worthy of re-election, should demand that legislation spell out, in plain English, that the entire capital structure of a TBTF institution be wiped out, and its holding company held responsible as a source of strength, before taxpayers are exposed to a single dollar of loss.

If leadership won’t add such language, call your elected official and ask how much they actually receive when they agree to put on the kneepads.

Rather than require the break-up or shrinkage of those institutions, this bill suggests we leave the institution intact until it becomes ‘troubled’ and instead subject it to greater oversight by the same Fed that mismanaged prudential oversight of precisely the large financial holding companies at the center of the crisis. Keep in mind that even on the 1-5 (best to worst) secret rating scale regulators use to define ‘troubled institutions’, BofA was only a 3 and it has been speculated that Citi was only a 2 even as they were begging the government for support. Should we wait to act until an institution is even worse off than they were in the height of the crisis?

This Trojan horse of a bill will recognize and codify the view that we must accept and agree to live in a world where there are institutions that are TBTF. We have chosen to head in the opposite direction from the responsible approach suggested by both Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, who wants to break up TBTF institutions, and other European regulators who are likely to oversee the breakup of TBTF institutions, ING and Lloyds.

much more at link...

[fasttense]

16. I guess they think too big to fail (yet again) is too big to explode (yet again).

[ozymandius]

9. Government Is Trying to Make Bailouts for the Giant Banks PERMANENT

Posted at Naked Capitalism by George Washington of Washington’s Blog.

On September 25th, I wrote:

Paul Volcker and senior Harvard economist Jeffrey Miron both testified to Congress this week that the government is trying to make bailouts for the giant banks permanent.

Writing Wednesday in The Hill, Congressman Brad Sherman pointed out that:

In my opinion, Geithner’s proposal is “TARP on steroids.” Section 1204 of the proposal (the proposal being the "Resolution Authority for Large, Interconnected Financial Companies Act of 2009") allows the executive branch to use taxpayer money to make loans to, or invest in, the largest financial institutions to avoid a systemic risk to the economy.

Geithner’s proposal reminds me of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the $700 billion Wall Street bailout adopted last year, but the TARP was limited to two years, and to a maximum of $700 billion. Section 1204 is unlimited in dollar amount and is a permanent grant of power to the executive branch. TARP contained some limits on executive compensation and an array of special oversight authorities. Section 1204 contains absolutely no limits on executive compensation and no special oversight.

When I asked Geithner whether he would accept a $1 trillion limit on the new bailout authority (if the executive branch wanted to spend more, it would have to come back to Congress), he rejected a $1 trillion limit, insisting that the executive branch be able to respond without coming back to Congress.

Both TARP and the Treasury proposal have vague provisions under which taxpayers might possibly recover any money lost through a special tax on the financial services industry. Under the Treasury proposal, only the very largest institutions could benefit from a bailout, but the special tax, if ever collected, would fall chiefly on medium-sized institutions.

Thus, the medium-sized institutions will be at a competitive disadvantage for two reasons. First, the largest institutions will be able to borrow money more cheaply because their creditors will believe that if the institution is unable to pay, the taxpayers will. Second, if there ever is a bailout benefitting a very large financial institution, the tax will be imposed on the medium-sized institutions.

Sherman is a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee and a certified public accountant, so he has a good nose for analyzing proposed financial regulations.

more at link...

[DemReadingDU]

13. Sherman was the guy who said Paulson threatened martial law

unless the TARP was passed

10/2/08 Rep. Brad Sherman says Congress threatened with Martial Law if bill is not passed
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaG9d_4zij8

[Festivito]

5. Debt: 10/27/2009 11,901,429,311,747.91 (UP 3,842,918,091.24) (Tue)(8B,Surplus FY'10)

(The Obama fiscal year 2010 surplus continues. A little more debt was added today, mostly the uncontrolled FICA side, luckily not enough to stop Obama's actual surplus from continuing. Will it last a month? It's good fun while it lasts.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,475,651,677,449.49 + 4,425,777,634,298.42
UP 626,474,250.98 + UP 3,216,443,840.26

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,821,021 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,663.47.
A family of three owes $115,990.41. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,942,325,212.44.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,357,705,155.79.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,085,348,583.55.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 19 reports in 27 days of FY2010 averaging -0.44B$ per report, -0.31B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,181 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 11.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/27/2009 11,901,429,311,747.91 BHO (UP 1,274,552,262,834.83 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 -0,008,399,691,763.80 -----------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------********
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -
10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ----
10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue
10/14/2009 +000,250,135,805.15 ------------********
10/15/2009 +040,455,301,335.22 ------------**********
10/16/2009 -000,034,671,440.79 ----
10/19/2009 +000,169,101,777.19 ------------******** Mon
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********

-30,372,832,112.20 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4122261&mesg_id=4122311

[Festivito]

51. Debt: 10/28/2009 11,893,668,881,089.01 (DOWN 7,760,430,658.90) (Wed)(16B$ Surplus FY'10)

(The Obama surplus for fiscal year 2010 continues. A little more debt was added again today, but not enough to enter deficit territory, and thus the FICA side drop was unneeded, all bringing the Obama surplus for FY'10 from 8B to 16B. Gosh, it's fun. Will it go for the whole month? Unknown. The FICA side makes big changes at the end of each month so the rollercoaster will continue day to day for a few days. Good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,476,449,717,282.13 + 4,417,219,163,806.88
UP 798,039,832.64 + DOWN 8,558,470,491.54

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,829,661 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,637.18.
A family of three owes $115,911.53. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,555,372,152.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,073,939,578.13.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 20 reports in 28 days of FY2010 averaging -0.81B$ per report, -0.58B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,180 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 11.2 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/28/2009 11,893,668,881,089.01 BHO (UP 1,266,791,832,175.93 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 -0,016,160,122,422.70 ----------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -
10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ----
10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue
10/14/2009 +000,250,135,805.15 ------------********
10/15/2009 +040,455,301,335.22 ------------**********
10/16/2009 -000,034,671,440.79 ----
10/19/2009 +000,169,101,777.19 ------------******** Mon
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********

-30,215,742,693.04 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4124096&mesg_id=4124103

[ozymandius]

7. Deutsche Bank Says Markets to Boost Investment Banks

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, said improved capital markets and investors’ increasing appetite for risk should bolster securities firms in the fourth quarter.

Deutsche Bank’s investment bank posted pretax profit of 988 million euros ($1.45 billion) in the third quarter, exceeding analysts’ estimates, on equity and debt sales and trading. Net income more than tripled to 1.38 billion euros, or 2.10 euros per share, from 435 million euros, or 83 cents, a year earlier, the Frankfurt-based bank said in a statement today.

The company benefited from the record-low interest rates that helped Credit Suisse Group AG post its highest quarterly profit in more than two years. In the current quarter, stabilization in the money and capital markets, reduced volatility and rising asset valuations “should support banks’ securities business,” the company said.

.....
Deutsche Bank fell 95 cents, or 1.9 percent, to 47.95 euros by 9:28 a.m. in Frankfurt trading. The stock gained 72 percent this year, valuing the company at about 29.7 billion euros. That compares with a 41 percent increase in the Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index, which tracks 63 stocks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRz.hxoInLus

[ozymandius]

10. Are things really getting better? (Or is Bernanke a self-congratulating liar)

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke told a conference at the Brookings Institution. But "it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time."

As quoted in the WSJ

The economy is forecast to have grown in the last three months by the largest amount since the summer of 2007, but there are signs that things are still getting worse.

---

GDP: Strong return to growth

Where we're headed: The economy is expected to have returned to positive growth in the last three months after contracting by 3.7% since the recession began. But economists warn that government stimulus programs like Cash for Clunkers contributed strongly to the economic expansion and that the economic recovery is more fragile than the GDP numbers may suggest.

.....
Jobs: Still losing ground

Where we're headed: The labor market has historically dragged its feet at the beginning of an economic rebound, as businesses wait for sure signs of a recovery before hiring. And the trend needs to continue in the right direction before we can reasonably talk about job creation. Labor hit a major setback last month, when September's job loss outpaced August's.

more here

[Tansy_Gold]

11. Jobs -- if only it were that simple

one of the dogs woke me up at 2:15, and after letting her and then going back to bed, I lay awake pondering the mysteries of the universe until about 3:15, when I finally got up.

One of the mysteries I was contemplating was this: What is a job? How do we measure job growth? How do we measure employment, unemployment, underemployment?

If we think of A Job in terms of some classic idea -- 40-hour week, 8 to 5 with an hour for lunch, living wage, full benefits including insurance, dependent insurance, paid vacations and holidays, and retirement pension -- I wonder how many of those are really left?

Is 20 hours a week at $8/hour with no benefits A Job? What about a temporary or contract worker who gets 32 hours one week, 8 the next, 40 the next, and 0 the week after that? He or she has A Job through the agency they work for, not the places they actually perform the work.

What about the guy who subsists on Social Security but supplements it selling collectibles on eBay and occasionally used cars for his friends on craigslist? He puts in 40 hours or more a week on A Job that nets him $150, sometimes more, sometimes less, and none of it ever shows up in the stats.

Or a situation like my own, where I do freelance/subcontracting work for insurance agents, paid by the job rather than the hour, so my income fluctuates from $2000/mo to $600/mo and I have almost no control over it. No benefits of course, no raises, no nothing other than the right to quit when I've had enough -- and live on my greatly reduced SS survivor's benefits.

We've been saying all along here on SMW that it's ultimately about jobs, and until jobs come back, real meaningful living wage jobs, anything else is a band-aid. The stock market is now almost completely disconnected from the real economy so it provides no real barometer/thermometer. We know the whole employment picture has been manipulated to make unemployment numbers look lower than they really are. But I think we've failed to look at what A Job really is, other than a statistic.

Well, no, that's not quite true. I was going to erase that comment, then decided I would leave it as a kind of paper trail to my very early morning thought process. We have those here on SMW who have pushed aside the statistic curtain and revealed the human face - our own Roland99 for example. We know that often A Job isn't really A Job at all, and we know how important A Job is to maintaining not only something resembling a normal lifestyle (by whatever definition we choose) but something resembling normal human dignity.

Our US economy hasn't collapsed yet. In some areas it probably is close, but the roads and streets and highways are still clogged with traffic, the stores still have customers, the Asian Buffet over on Signal Butte is still packed on Friday night (more so than ever now that the "winter visitors" are back). But in general our populace is still woefully ignorant of the facts of how the economy works.

I'll cite one example -- The news that Wal-Mart is now selling caskets and funeral urns online prompted the creation of a DU thread in which a very sincere DUer expressed her disgust at Wal-Mart's business practices, and ended by labeling them "commies." How can we have a national discussion/conversation/debate about the economy if DUers think Wal-Mart is a communist enterprise???

Sure, we know that Joe Lieberman is protecting his "constituents" -- the insurance companies headquartered in Connecticut. But why aren't the news shows, even OUR news shows, pointing this out? Rachel Maddow did a little bit on Evan Bayh last night, and if she pointed out similar connections regarding Lieberman, I missed it. But all of this should be headline news in every paper. There should be outrage in every bar and Starbucks and around ever watercooler and in every factory parking lot.

It's not about jobs; it's about people. A Job is A Person.

Alan Grayson has taken the almsot unprecedented step of putting names and faces to the statistics. I'm sure there's a website out there that does the same with the Jobs and the Jobless.

Here's one for SMW to count.



Tansy Gold, underemployed, self-employed, refusing to turn on the heat even though it's only 67 in the house because it's too expensive and anyway this is central Arizona where it never really gets cold. . . .

[fasttense]

17. I enjoyed reading that. Even though you came to no conclusion

in your musings. It was very interesting to read how you feel because it sounds so much like how I feel.

Thanks for posting.

[Tansy_Gold]

23. thank you.

The point wasn't to come to a conclusion -- I hate to admit it but I'm probably far too post-modern to believe we can come to a conclusion and a single definition of "A Job" ;-) -- but rather to spark some thought and maybe some discussion.

I got word yesterday that a friend of mine from many years ago had suffered several minor strokes and finally been diagnosed with sleep apnea. My ever cynical BF waved that diagnosis off as artificial and contrived and "invented" by the medical profession to sell pills and treatments. "People never used to die of cancer the way they do now. We never had this much cancer and all these other diseases. It's all made up to sell pills."

Now, obviously, this kind of smart-ass cynicism doesn't stand up to logic. Elimination of many childhood disease means more people are living longer. Antibiotics to combat common infections means more people are living longer. Most cancers develop later in life so more people are actually living long enough to get cancer. And there are environmental factors -- chemicals and pesticides and radiation and so on, not to mention smoking and the chemicals added to tobacco -- that have contributed to the rise in cancers. But there are also the medical advances that have permitted diagnosing more cancers.

So anyway, after I went through all this and burst his bubble of superiority and cynicism (:evilgrin:) I realized that "THEY" have taken a similar attitude toward the human beings that make up our economy. A quick and flippant response is all that's needed. Throw a number out there, tell the people it's going down or up, depending on what kind of response you want, and that's all there is to it. Boooosh is bad, so unemployment is up. Stimulus is good, so unemployment is down. Don't worry about the truth or the people behind it, just get the numbers out there and start spinning.

It's like with this goddess-damned health care reform. No public option??? ARE THEY FUCKING NUTS? Oh, so we'll have an opt-out and some states can just not go along with it. "States" aren't going to feel the pain. "States" aren't going to get cancer. "States" aren't going to have complications of pregnancy. "States" aren't going to have a child with asthma or an elderly parent with Alzheimer's or a sister with chronic depression going through a messy divorce and trying to raise three children under six. "States" don't care. And the worst of it was that there were DUers who didn't care either!

"Next time maybe they'll vote in Democrats" was the frequent response.

We've just lost all perspective of people. "The economy shed 500,000 jobs last month" says absolutely nothing about the people involved. Two of those jobs were held by one woman who's struggling to feed her own two kids and her sister's two little girls after the sister and her husband were killed by a drunk driver with no insurance. I mean, yeah, that's a hypothetical story, but we don't know if it's maybe true, too. We don't know. Because it's not about people losing jobs; it's about "the economy" losing jobs.

Words have meaning. I'm just trying to give it back to them. (ETA: and if I don't stop making typos. . . . )


Tansy Gold, who really has to get back to the words of her paying gig

[fasttense]

29. Yeah, a conclusion would have made it less interesting

I think.

This economy seems so unnecessarily mean and cruel, the numbers we throw out about it mask it sometimes.

[AnneD]

36. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: and lurkers. Tansy, that theme was my underlying thought in my rant yesterday. I have had those musings also as of late. Too much emphasis on consumer, not enough emphasis on the human beings.

WS deals with consumers and that is the disconnect. That is another reason why the injection of a business model into a human endeavor will never work in area such as basic education and health care and will be immoral in the case of food and water. I don't care how great capitalism is...you are comparing apples to oranges we you try to make some things into business.

In my lifetime, I have seen hospitals morph from places of caring and healing to businesses. They are in the process of doing the same thing to the education of our children. As a School Nurse-I can see this very clearly, which is why I fight vouchers tooth and nail. I refuse to see education turn into the mess that passes for health care today. Humans are not business ventures.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Joe Chi Minh]

44. Someone on Joe Bageant's blog wrote on much the same theme.

I think it's important that it has been so clearly recognised and articulated. It hadn't quite impinged on my consciousness, perhaps because by now its like wall-paper. "Newspeak fatigue", I suppose you could call it.

http://www.joebageant.com/joe/2009/10/corporations-government.html

All extremely, bitterly ironical when you remember that, when they're making some pitch to you, solicited or otherwise, they'll immdiately have the brass neck to call you by your first name! I'd be perfectly happy with that and wouldn't feel in the least bit slighted, but for the fact that they learnt it form Dale Carnegie. Just as bad, is having to address someone I don't know by their first name, which does make me feel presumptuous. Sometimes, I've mentioned it and asked what their surname is.

"Serpentine reptiles" doesn't begin to convey the immorality of these business "geniuses". Don't female crocodiles protect their young between their jaws, instead of chewing and swallowing them.

[Hugin]

52. Very good, Tansy_Gold.

But, then you knew I'd agree 100%. :7

[Tansy_Gold]

60. Thanks, Hugin.

For whatever it's worth, we have some very large, very talkative crows around here. I try to "talk" back to them whenever I get the chance. And I always think of you.

I guess that's kind of my problem. I ALWAYS think in human terms. Even my "friends" inside my computer are human, know what I mean?


You know, of course, that crows are very intelligent. It's believed -- by some -- that the reason crows get into so much trouble is that they are bored just being crows. so they play and dance and try to get others to join in.

Enough trivia.

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

61. Crows are intelligent, and they recogonize people

7/27/09
Wild crows can recognize individual people. They can pick a person out of a crowd, follow them, and remember them — apparently for years. But people — even people who love crows — usually can't tell them apart. So what we have for you are two experiments that tell this story.
First, how do crows tell us apart?

Watch this video: The Crow Paradox

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106826971

[Tansy_Gold]

62. That was tooooooo cool!

What's scary is that when it came to "recognizing" the crows on the second part of the article, I instantly matched the first two -- no questions, I KNEW which ones they were -- but the third I had no clue.



Tansy Gold, who used to talk to red-tailed hawks in Indiana, too.

[DemReadingDU]

63. Those crows all look alike to me. lol, but

I was intrigued that crows would fly upside down to check out that scary mask when people had it on upside down. Amazing birds!

[Roland99]

28. And exports were way up. What are we exporting from here?!

Is there some Vandelay Industries out there we don't know about? ;-)

[Tansy_Gold]

31. well, according to this. . ..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4124052

We're exporting textiles to apparel manufacturers in Honduras.

Then again, maybe we're just exporting cotton. . .. .



TG

[wovenpaint]

46. Here's another article

with a different slant
http://www.inteletex.com/NewsDetail.asp?PubId=&NewsId=6319

snip from last paragraph...

...“Honduras is the third largest market for US textile mill products (US exports were $1.4 billion in 2008), the fourth largest supplier of apparel to the US market and the largest DR-CAFTA supplier to the United States."

Garment-making...and-fabrics exported from the US may not necessarily be made in the US. Cotton, yes.

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. What are we exporting from here? ....answer = DEBT n/t

[DemReadingDU]

32. Always appreciate your thoughts, Tansy

Unfortunately, the corporatists have sold us out to foreigners, for bigger profits for them, and fewer jobs for us. Truly sad for our country. Even with all the government stimulus programs, I don't see how they think we can recover. We can't. We need meaningful living wage jobs.

[FarCenter]

41. The investment in Information Processing Equipment and Software does not bode well for jobs

Total spending (seasonally adjusted annual rates) on "Equipment and Software" was $895.3 billion. This was broken down as follows:

$520.7 billion    Information processing equipment and software
 147.2            Industrial equipment
  71.5            Transportation equipment
 156.0            Other equipment

In short, 58% of investment in Equipment and Software is in the Information Technology sector and only 42% is for industrial, transportation or other equipment.

Note that many of these IT investments are being made in order to reduce the need for labor by providing direct customer access and participation or by automating back office operations done by clerks and administrative staff of various sorts. A lot of other projects are geared towards getting more production out of the same resources by optimizing business operations and processes.

This does not bode well for an increase in jobs.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. And how much of THAT is "software"???

That means even fewer jobs.


:grr:

If I weren't buried in (low) paying work this afternoon I could easily go on a very long, very loud rant.

Maybe this week-end for WEE.




TG

[FarCenter]

53. Software investment was $243.8 billion

I'm assuming that was some combination of capitalized leases and capitalized R&D costs, but the GDP report doesn't have a breakdown.

Capitalized software development costs are pretty squishy, and companies can capitalize a lot of development expense in order to make current profits better and then depreciated the capitalized cost in later quarters. The managers and accountants can play games with this set of numbers. Overall, it hurts the company, because it pays more in the long run and because it is carrying worthless assets on the books. But it helps managers get their current quarter performance bonuses.

[Demeter]

54. I'll Get My Storm Gear

Actually, I'll be AWOL most of Saturday--I'm hosting a gala Halloween party: under 12years old from 6-7PM, older 7-9PM

Serving Honey Baked Bat Wings (tastes like chicken!), edible wands, Dragon Scales with Dragon Liver pate and Blood (chips salsa and guac) Spectral Soup (egg drop--looks like ghosts in broth), etc.

You are all invited, of course!

[wovenpaint]

42. I hear you about jobs

And I ponder the same questions sitting here in my studio. So, here's another story behind the statistics.:hi:

After doing the marriage, children, divorce thing, I went back to college in the early '90's to get my degree so I could obtain a career position in the textile industry...(now you can see where this post is heading) I landed a designer job that I loved-left in 2000 for family (teenagers, nuff said).
Since then, I've been "downsized" twice, started a business that fell off the proverbial cliff when gas prices peaked at $4 a gallon last year. Now I work art commission to commission-very sparse. I also make things to sell online-hardly any sales. Ebay is the same-lots of listings, hardly any sales. Luckily (and gratefully) for me, I have an employed SO-so far....but miss the independence of self earned income.
I've always figured that the 40/hr week is considered a "career"-with decent/good pay of course. A career position could be seen as the "holy grail" of jobs today for anyone over the age of 40! Interviews for me are non-existent since resumes seem to fall into dark holes. And when I did go on interviews a few years ago, I could see it in the eyes..."too old". I don't have the strength to go that route again. Writing cover letters, tweaking resumes to fit the listing, clothes, hair, nails, car, gas, etc. over and over-only to face "the eyes". Oh yeah - and the costs of all that.
Now I'm looking for a part time "job" locally. Not so much for the meager pay, but for the chance to get out of the house and DO something. I miss being with people, too. I've lost most of the social network that jobs provided (good or bad) so there's a feeling of invisibility.

Appropriately enough, I watched Frontline's "Close to Home" the other night that speaks to this issue...here's the link:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/closetohome/?utm_campaign=homepage&utm_medium=bigimage&utm_source=bigimage

Now I'm pondering what will be the next phase for all of us un-employed, under-employed, self-employed and non-workers...

BTW-I love the website idea! How about "Jobs are People(the Hell with Careers)"
I kind of googled around and just found this: http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070507122747AAgxDct :rofl:

[ozymandius]

55. Some people forget that Economics is really about money and the human condition.

Not you, of course, Tansy. Not we here. You have an extraordinary gift for expressing what otherwise should be obvious. Thanks.

[Tansy_Gold]

57. thank you, Ozy. Your compliment does me a great honor

My background is in the social sciences, with a frosting of accounting, of course, so the only way I CAN see things is through the lens of the human condition.

And of course there are so many of those "out there" who simply don't want to see the reality of the human factor in anything. They are comforted by their formulae and their models, that all operate at 100% efficiency in their perfect little world.

Greenspan and his Randian ilk forgot that Galt's Gulch was powered by imagination, not by a real-world static electricity converter. A equals A except when A is a human being with all the frailties and foolishness of flesh and blood and desire and pain. Then maybe A equals B and a half or even 3C.

I'll rant some more this week-end. Right now the paying gig calls, or rather screams. (see avatar. . . .)


TG

[Loge23]

12. A leveling downward slope is not growth

The hell-raising ride down the activity slope may have slowed, but we're still in the basement and we should acknowledge every indication that we will be here for awhile.
In SO-FL, we are settling in for an extended stay rattling around the bottom.
Work staffs are pared down to the bone. Benefits are a relic from the past. Sales are a fraction of what they were even one year ago - let alone 2006.
My own opinion is that the only real possibility of growth in this economy can only come from yet another bubble.
...and even bubbles these days are only for the rich (see yesterday's SMW).

[DemReadingDU]

14. it's a fantasy things are better

Reports are cooked, it's all about perception and having confidence.

[fasttense]

19. Back before the 1st Republicon Great Depression, did confidence and perception

play such a significant role in the economy?

The reason I ask is that if we had a real economy, an honest economy, built on manufacturing things, making real things, based on an honest days work instead of imaginary stocks, and con jobs. If we had that, would it really matter how confident you are or how off kilter your perception?

Seems to me confidence is only a requirement for a con.

[DemReadingDU]

24. Last Monday, I watched the PBS program The Crash of 1929

A lot of people in the 20s were swept up in the market back then. Corruption was rampant in stock manipulation. Hoover won by a landslide in 1928. People perceived the times were good, Roaring 20s, parties, and all that.

Here's the link to the Crash of 1929, it can be watched video computer, 55 minute video
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/crash/

After the TV broadcast, there was a program about Hoover, but I am unable to find a link to be able to re-watch it on the computer. Perhaps it will be re-broadcast on PBS. I learned a lot about Hoover, quite interesting.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/presidents/31_hoover/

As I watched these PBS programs, I was reminded of this quote
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." Mark Twain
http://www.quotedb.com/quotes/3038


I wish we had more manufacturing today in America, for things people need - like clothes, shoes, sheets, towels, tools, appliances, etc. As Chris Martenson said in his Crash Course "The next 20 years are going to be unlike the previous 20 years". See links in Sig line.

[Tansy_Gold]

25. Well, "con" is short for "confidence". . . .

and then it's short for "convict."

And we have to have confidence in our convictions, don't we?



Tansy Gold, playin' word games again when she needs to be workin'

[DemReadingDU]

15. I'm confused by the toon, brain not working yet

What is the toon trying to tell us?

[Coes]

21. everybody on hamburgerjobs?

not sure
not the easiest one, this one

[DemReadingDU]

26. The people are all 'sellers'

People aren't buying stocks? McDonalds is pulling out of Iceland, no buyers there. My brain is still puzzled.

[UpInArms]

34. it looks (to me) like everyone is trying to sell

the McWorld b-s to kids and flea ridden dogs, since they have all (or so it seems) gone over to the dark side.

:shrug:

[DemReadingDU]

38. I wondered about the dog, and the 'buyers door'

Buyers is backwards, all those McSellers had to have come thru the buyers door.
:shrug:


need more coffee

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Speaking of dogs, where's Dr. Phool with an update on

PUPPIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dr.Phool]

43. You mean the two terrorists?

I'll try to post some pics, maybe tomorrow.

[Dr.Phool]

45. Here's one of the terrorists.

http://www.floridaretrieverrescue.com/html/current_dogs.html

Foxy is the one I'm fostering. Sara is from the litter of black, chocolate, and yellow. She looks identical to the yellow one.

[Joe Chi Minh]

47. They look quite serious for puppies. Maybe you were trailing clouds

of despondency from what this thread teaches us. I've never seen such intellectual-looking puppies.

[Tansy_Gold]

49. OOOOOOH, PUPPIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tansy does love her some PUPPIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




But I give you a big round of applause for fostering. I'm one of those folks who bonds INSTANTLY (if not sooner) with a dog and just can't give 'em up. That's how I got these four.. .. ... .. ..



Enjoy 'em. They picked a good spot. I knew they would.




TG

[Robbien]

37. Count me as confused also

And what is that little dog wagging his tail supposed to signify?

[DemReadingDU]

39. Dog: Now that I have your attention

The economy sucks.
:crazy:

[ozymandius]

56. That is how I read the cartoon.

Sucky economy. A legion of burger flippers has run out of customers. It tickles my dark funny bone just as it makes me shake my head.

[DemReadingDU]

58. ah ha

That's it, thanks for the interpretation. Shaking my head too.

[UpInArms]

18. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.358 Change -0.067 (-0.09%)

Japanese Yen’s Trend against US Dollar Hangs on BOJ Rate Decision

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2009-10-29-1149-Japanese_Yen_s_Trend_against_US.html

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.10%, but currency traders will be focused on the future of the central bank’s emergency lending measures, whose near-term fate will hint the direction of the Japanese Yen’s long-term trend against the US Dollar.

Bank of Japan Strikes Hawkish Stance on Lending Programs

BOJ Governor Maasaki Shirakawa and company have upgraded their outlook for the world’s second-largest economy at several consecutive policy meetings over recent months, and minutes from the latest policy meeting in September revealed a lively discussion about “exit strategies” for temporary credit-boosting schemes. On balance, most BOJ members seemed eager to pull back some of these programs, concluding that their fate “should be decided appropriately in light of the degree of improvement in financial conditions” which most agreed were increasingly on the mend. A few policymakers even went so far as to suggests that the positive impact from the bank’s lending facilities was “on the wane”, noting a decline in the Bank’ asset purchases and relative stability in overnight borrowing costs. All told, the climate on the BOJ’s policy board seems to lean towards an announcement that their support for corporate finance is on its way out.

Ministry of Finance: An Agenda of Their Own

The view from the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is quite different from that of the BOJ however: Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii has been vocal about his position that the central bank’s outlook is too optimistic and ill-informed, trying to pressure the monetary authority to keep in place its asset-buying programs. An un-sourced report from Nikkei News suggested this week that the government and the BOJ may start holding monthly meetings to “exchange views” on the economy and financial conditions, hinting that perhaps the government is trying to muscle in on the central bank’s independence over monetary policy.

This kind of activism seems linked to investors’ concerns about how Japan plans to deal with its ballooning public deficit, the largest in the developed world. The worry is that a massive issuance will flood the market and collapse the price of government debt all the while sending borrowing costs higher and derailing the economic recovery. Both Prime Minister Yukio Hotoyama and Fujii have been on the wires in recent days talking up fiscal discipline, with the former saying that lawmakers will be able to “secure the trust of the Japanese government bond market” and the latter saying that the size of future bond sales will be critical to the latest budget’s composition. Naturally, the MOF would not be as concerned about issuing debt if the Bank of Japan continued to be an active buyer of it, keeping prices supported and yields in check. To that effect, the government is keenly interested in how the BOJ proceeds from here.

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Can the Dollar's Burgeoning Strength Weather GDP and Risk Trends?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2009-10-29-0039-Can_the_Dollar_s_Burgeoning_Strength.html



The Economy and the Credit Market

It looks as if the tides may have finally turned in the dollar’s favor; but a critical look at this reversal of fortunes reveals the recovery is largely based upon changes in underlying sentiment. Under normal circumstances, the fact that the dollar’s strength is primarily founded on risk appetite (or the lack thereof) wouldn’t matter; but we are not facing normal circumstances. Sentiment alone is a fickle dynamic that can reverse course without warning. So, while the impressive recovery in the capital markets this year is founded on relatively bleak fundamentals; optimism is not necessarily tethered to the current pace of activity. This is a warning that should specifically be heeded ahead of Thursday’s advanced US 3Q GDP release. This indicator holds significant economic pull; and it can single-handedly capsize or revive risk appetite. This is a particularly dangerous and complicated concern for the US dollar. Given the currency’s status as a safe haven (and the tight correlation this driver has developed with the unit), the forecasted 3.2 percent annualized growth through the third quarter could provide a fundamental platform for speculators to revive the broader markets’ rally and subsequently put the dollar back on its bearish path. On the other hand, the greenback’s status as a risk-adverse currency won’t last forever; and this is the kind of release that could finally shake the dollar of its unwanted position.



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[MARALE]

48. Deere Calls Back Iowa Workers

Deere & Company announced Wednesday that the majority of manufacturing employees who had been on layoff at the John Deere Ottumwa Works are being recalled.

Deere said 452 manufacturing employees will be recalled beginning November 30th, with all of those employees expected to be back to work before the company's annual holiday shutdown, which begins December 23rd. However, 78 employees will remain on layoff until market conditions improve enough to require the additional workforce.

Deere had placed the majority of the manufacturing workforce at Ottumwa on layoff earlier this year to align factory production with market demand.

The John Deere Ottumwa Works manufactures balers and other equipment used by hay and livestock producers.


I just wanted to give a little good news that was out there for everyone.

[Demeter]

59. Happy 80th Anniversary!

Black Tuesday: October 29, 1929.