STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 26

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 26, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s):Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 23, 2009

Dow... 9,972.18 -109.13 (-1.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,154.47 -10.82 (-0.50%)
S&P 500... 1,079.60 -13.31 (-1.22%)
Gold future... 1,056 -2.20 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 +0.06 (+1.72%)
30-Year Bond 4.29 +0.05 (+1.13%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood

Robert Rhea speaks from the grave.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[Hugin]

5. Not to worry, the Capmark news will keep them spinning all day.

Unless, some celeb should happen to stub their toe... or Microsoft release yet another reheated OS.

[ozymandius]

7. Heh! Indeedy.

Good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut:

[Hugin]

9. Hey there, Ozy.

:hi:

I forgot to add, finding a convenient scapegoat bobbing for apples too long in the backyard pool. :/

[ozymandius]

11. That event has suspicious fingerprints all over it.

Here's a link to the DU thread. UpInArms and yours truly have chimed in there. This rings similarly to Ken Lay's demise.

[Hugin]

12. Oh! Look, the futures are UP!

DJIA INDEX 9,969.00 38.00
S&P 500 1,082.10 5.20
NASDAQ 100 1,760.50 8.50

:eyes:

Yet, there are those who claim the Market Indexes are a reflection of the economy as a whole. :blech:

[ozymandius]

15. "a reflection of the economy"

Yes, there are still those who claim that nonsense. Like that Efficient Market Theory hypothesis - whereas market valuations are justified because the drivers behind the numbers know more than you do. That drivel still receives credit, though it has been widely discredited.

[AnneD]

34. What was the name of that other guy ....

that died in his swimming pool-but this guy was much younger.

[Demeter]

39. year? State? Any Additional Detail you remember?

[AnneD]

46. I think it was in FL

too within the last year or two. I also remember Pete Cox.

[Demeter]

42. I Found These

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_businessman-drowns-in-pool-at-ghatkopar_1233400

Businessman drowns in pool at Ghatkopar


Mumbai: A thirty-six-year old businessman drowned in the Lions MCGM swimming pool at Ghatkopar on Sunday morning.

http://www.zimbio.com/K38+Micronesia/articles/97v0qUzAZKX/Man+falls+cliff+line+drowns

Man falls from cliff line, drowns


A Korean businessman who owns the Paris Croissant Bakery in Garapan drowned when he fell from a cliff line while fishing in Cow Town, Marpi, Saturday afternoon. Sources in the Korean community told Saipan Tribune that the victim is Ki Bok Han, 52. Han is survived by his wife, Young Sook Han, and two children, who are both in the U.S. mainland.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1169620/British-hotelier-drowns-coast-Brazil.html

British hotelier drowns off the coast of Brazil

A British businessman has drowned off the coast of Brazil after reportedly ignoring warnings over 10 foot waves.

Peter Charles Cox, 46, died on the paradise island of Ilha Grande despite attempts by surfers to rescue him.

Mr Cox was swimming off the island´s spectacular Lopes Mendes beach on Saturday afternoon despite red flags instructing bathers to stay on the shore, local media reported.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200206/s571996.htm

Monday, June 3, 2002. Posted: 19:19:43 (AEDT)
Decision reserved in US businessman drowning case

A Brisbane Supreme Court judge has reserved his decision in a multi-million dollar lawsuit over the drowning death of an American businessman on the Sunshine Coast.

Bob Enright's family is suing the Hyatt Coolum Resort and the Maroochy Shire Council for more than $120 million.

The 46-year-old executive was staying at the resort when he drowned while swimming at a nearby beach in 1993.

Lawyers for the family say the resort did not warn Mr Enright about the dangers of swimming in the ocean and there were no warning signs at the beach.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls to near $80 for third day of losses

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slipped to near $80 a barrel Monday in Asia as traders looked to this week's company earnings and U.S. economic data for evidence that justifies last week's jump to a 2009 high.

Benchmark crude for December delivery fell 49 cents to $80.01 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 69 cents a barrel to settle at $80.50 on Friday.
.....

Traders will be looking to a slew of corporate results and economic indicators for guidance this week. The Commerce Department is scheduled to announce third-quarter gross domestic product, with reports on housing prices, new home sales, consumer confidence and durable goods orders also due during the week.
.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 0.75 cent to $2.07 a gallon. Gasoline for November delivery dropped 1.13 cents to $2.03 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery slid 7.2 cents to $4.72 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

33. Why is oil shooting up at a time of year it traditionally falls off? I think I know why.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6858746

[Demeter]

40. Went by a gas staion that closed sometime in the past 2 weeks

Now that I don't do a daily paper, I don't buy as much gas anymore. There's several abandoned gas pits in Ann Arbor.

[ozymandius]

4. Earnings, data to determine rally's fate

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stock bulls may hit the pause button again this week if a wave of earnings due from marquee names such as Exxon Mobil and a slew of economic data offer no new incentives to extend Wall Street's seven-month rally.
.....

Energy, telecom and consumer goods companies will be in the spotlight as the reporting season kicks into overdrive, with Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), Chevron Corp (CVX.N), Verizon Communications (VX.N) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL.N) among a raft of companies on this week's scoreboard.

Visa Inc (V.N), the world's largest credit-card network, also is due to report this week.

.....
Thursday's GDP report is forecast, according to economists polled by Reuters, to show that gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced within the U.S. borders, grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter, its first quarterly expansion in more than a year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091025/bs_nm/us_column_stocks_outlook

[ozymandius]

6. Lawyer: Death complicates Madoff investment case

PALM BEACH, Fla. – The death of Jeffry Picower, accused of profiting more than $7 billion from the investment schemes of his longtime friend Bernard Madoff, will make it more difficult for suing investors to recoup their money, attorneys said.
.....

Picower had been accused by jilted investors of being the biggest beneficiary of Madoff's schemes. In a lawsuit to recover Madoff's assets, trustee Irving Picard demanded Picower return more than $7 billion in bogus profits. In an e-mailed statement Sunday, Picard said only that "litigation will continue."

Jerry Reisman, an attorney representing about 26 victims, said Picower's death does make it more difficult for the trustee to recoup some of the money.
.....

Jonathan Landers, an attorney representing a large group of victims, said in an e-mail that it was impossible to tell what effect Picower's death would have on efforts to recover funds lost in Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091026/ap_on_bi_ge/us_madoff_associate_death

[SpiralHawk]

17. Peeee Uuuuu

This 'suicide' - Republicon Style - Steeenks.

[AnneD]

35. And like I said earlier

this happened before.

And as a matter of fact, didn't I recently make some joke about something not making headlines unless they were found dead in a swimming pool (or with a dead girl or boy in their bed)

[SpiralHawk]

37. ...and it may damn well happen again...

with Republicon 'Family Values' having flushed the economy down their so-called 'conservative' crapper...

[ozymandius]

8. Capmark Files for Bankruptcy Protection

Capmark Financial Group Inc., one of the nation's largest commercial-real-estate lenders, filed for bankruptcy protection in Delaware.

The much-expected move underscores the deep problems in the business-property market. After suffering from the collapse in residential mortgages, U.S. banks face steep losses from commercial real-estate loans. Capmark has originated more than $10 billion in commercial real-estate loans, according to Moody's Investors Service.

It also represents a blow to the company's private-equity owners. In 2006, a group led by KKR & Co., Goldman Sachs Capital Partners and Five Mile Capital Partners acquired the lender GMAC LLC's commercial-real estate business and renamed it Capmark. As of March 31, the investor group owned about 75% of the company, with GMAC and its employees owning the balance.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125640081248705947.html?mod=rss_Today's_Most_Popular

[ozymandius]

10. ING to split itself, issue $11.3 billion of shares

AMSTERDAM -- ING Groep NV, one of the world's largest financial services companies, announced plans Monday to sell or list its insurance and investment management arms and to issue euro7.5 billion ($11.3 billion) in new shares to repay state aid and bolster its finances.

The bank said the new capital will repay about half of the aid it received from the Dutch government at the peak of the financial crisis.

In a series of related announcements, the company said it will hive off the insurance arm and its investment management businesses and sell them or seek stock market listings for them. It also plans to sell its U.S. Internet banking arm ING Direct by 2013 and separate and sell some of its Dutch banking operations.

.....
Along with the announcement of its intention to split, ING gave a preview of its third quarter earnings, putting them at a profit of euro750 million, compared to a loss of euro568 million in the same period a year ago. Banking profits were around euro250 million and insurance earnings around euro500 million.

It said in a statement Monday that profits were helped by 10,800 job cuts so far this year. However, impairments on various investments, notably real estate and derivatives linked to the U.S. housing market, continue to weigh on results.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/26/AR2009102600617.html

---

Jeebus! There we go again. Companies across the globe must be so completely over the United States' effects from our easy money policies of the Greenspan era. A similar scenario happened in 1925 that precipitated the financial calamity of 1929.

[Festivito]

13. Debt: 10/22/2009 11,896,808,244,570.28 (DOWN 51,648,237,003.70) (Thu)(SURPLUS again!)

(A big drop today and we are back to an Obama surplus, I kid you not. Good week to all.)
(Had to edit % Obama vs Bush in 2009, took % base from 2001, not same 2009. Oops.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,475,811,772,019.34 + 4,420,996,472,550.94
DOWN 54,881,746,021.15 + UP 3,233,509,017.45

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,777,821 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,653.88.
A family of three owes $115,961.65. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,508,139,353.09.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,572,635,525.60.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 16 reports in 22 days of FY2010 averaging -0.81B$ per report, -0.59B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,186 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 11.2 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/22/2009 11,896,808,244,570.28 BHO (UP 1,269,931,195,657.20 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 -0,013,020,758,941.50 ----------BHO


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 -
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********
10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon
10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------********
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -
10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ----
10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue
10/14/2009 +000,250,135,805.15 ------------********
10/15/2009 +040,455,301,335.22 ------------**********
10/16/2009 -000,034,671,440.79 ----
10/19/2009 +000,169,101,777.19 ------------******** Mon
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -

-76,049,786,717.43 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4115881&mesg_id=4115920

[DemReadingDU]

20. good toon, thanks

[Festivito]

53. Debt: 10/23/2009 11,895,889,017,776.15 (DOWN 919,226,794.13) (Fri)(Surplussier!)

(Small drops today, but the Obama surplus grows -- okay, just little -- but, it grows… it's surplussier. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,475,706,137,162.55 + 4,420,182,880,613.60
DOWN 105,634,856.79 + DOWN 813,591,937.34

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,786,461 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,649.81.
A family of three owes $115,949.44. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,734,783,468.62.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,738,841,210.32.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 17 reports in 23 days of FY2010 averaging -0.82B$ per report, -0.61B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,185 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 11.2 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/23/2009 11,895,889,017,776.15 BHO (UP 1,269,011,968,863.07 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 -0,013,939,985,735.60 ----------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********
10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon
10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------********
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -
10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ----
10/13/2009 +010,339,703,734.17 ------------********** Tue
10/14/2009 +000,250,135,805.15 ------------********
10/15/2009 +040,455,301,335.22 ------------**********
10/16/2009 -000,034,671,440.79 ----
10/19/2009 +000,169,101,777.19 ------------******** Mon
10/20/2009 +000,084,506,561.85 ------------*******
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---

-30,187,960,015.27 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4119129&mesg_id=4119151

[Demeter]

14. Morning Ozy and Fellow Marketeers

Events in the economic world do seem to be accelerating; not as fast as last autumn, but faster than usual.

We devoted the weekend to Walt Disney and wrapping up any loose ends that came out. I still have 48 naked capitalism emails to get through....

In a way, American crooks are following the Japanese code of dishonor, although the aim is less to make reparations, more to avoid jail and asset-stripping. I think the asset-stripping aspect is a very big hole in the US legal code, but I'm not sure what could be done about it. Why this asshole Pincower wasn't in police custody is my question. Surely some pretext could have been cobbled together. They do it so often for lesser criminals.

[ozymandius]

18. Good morning, Demeter.

Why he went swimming in his condition is also a mystery. He had Parkinson's disease and a heart condition.

[AnneD]

36. I'm sure ...

someone helped him in.....

[Demeter]

16. October 24 2009: The greatest theft in American history

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/


Ilargi: Most of us probably lose sight, from time to time, of the importance of the US housing market to the American banking system, the US economy and, for good measure, the entire global economy. Still, it's virtually impossible to overestimate that importance. So when a good reason presents itself to return to the topic, we are well advised to do so, and recent developments more than justify it. Much more than.

In the past, I have repeatedly talked about the perverse role the US government plays in the domestic housing market, through government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have total mortgage portfolio's of between $5 trillion and $6 trillion on their books, as well as an unknown amount and degree of "involvement" in mortgage-backed securities, and whose common and preferred equity were recently assessed as "worthless" by an analyst team at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Which of course only confirmed a poorly hidden secret.

The KBW analysts concluded that the only way to deal with Fannie and Freddie would be a bad bank construction. The government, however, as I’ve pointed out before, seems to be ahead of them. A rapidly growing share of mortgage loans are now processed through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA, a.k.a. Ginnie Mae).

Unlike Fannie and Freddie, these are full-blooded government-owned agencies. And that makes them even easier tools to manipulate the housing market. Ginnie Mae guarantees mortgage-backed securities backed by federally insured or guaranteed loans issued by the Federal Housing Administration. In other words, the government guarantees securities backed by loans issued by the government. These loans, however and of course, don't originate with the government.

Earlier this week, a story made the rounds of a 20-year old girl of Salvadorian origin who holds 3 jobs and bought a $155,000 home (and got a $34,000 "embellishment" extension on top of that) with an FHA-guaranteed loan with a 3.5% down payment. That story had subprime written all over it right from the start, and loudly begged the question what on earth moves the US government to move into (make that induce) subprime lending.

But that was just the first chapter of the tale. In chapter 2, we see that the damsel in distress didn't just see her loan guaranteed by the Obama administration. Crucially, she also qualifies for the $8000 tax credit for first time home-buyers.

Please pay attention. Now it gets interesting.

$8000 may not seem like a lot compared to the $155,000 purchase price. But that's not the way to look at it. You see, the government allows those who qualify for the credit to use it towards their down payment. And now the picture changes dramatically.

Remember, our protagonist needed to put down only 3.5% of her loan. 3.5% of $155,000 is $5425. Hence, she still has $2575 left on her $8000 credit. So she adds $34,000, which brings the total loan to $189,000. 3.5% of that is $6615. So even with the embellishments, she still has $1385 left.

In the end, if we focus only on the government involvement in this particular situation, she actually gets paid to get a mortgage loan for her home. In effect, she gets a 105% loan. Of course, if we look beyond government involvement, the mortgage lender which "approved" her will slap an avalanche of fees and bills on her, and she's still sure to be made to pay and bleed through the teeth.

But the principle has been established. The US government has silently and secretly entered a situation in which its presence is even far more perverting than it was before, when its involvement was channeled through Fannie and Freddie. One aspect of this change pertains to mortgage insurance, which takes on an entirely different shape now that the government effectively guarantees all money involved. There is still an insurance premium, but it can be smeared out over the course of the loan, and nobody cares much about it with the full weight of Washington behind it to begin with.

This is just one side of the home-buyer tax credit that should be reason for concern.

At 3.5% down, an $8000 tax credit potentially (and yes, I know this is a simplified version of reality) increases the amount a buyer can spend on a home by over $200,000. A sharp mind named Nemo at Self Evident says that this is bound to increase both the supply of homes on the market (since it allows buyers to spend -much- more, getting rid of -perceived- bottom prices) and the price per home. "Nemo" estimates the rise in prices could be as much as $100,000 per home. While we might discuss or even dispute that number, the principle is obvious and not disputable.

That principle is: the US government is busy actively raising home prices. And there we are back to what I've been saying about Fannie and Freddie for the longest time. While the reason given by Washington is that its involvement is driven by a desire to "stabilize" the markets, that is at best only part of the truth. What the White House and Capitol Hill are trying to do is "stabilizing" the markets at a level that they find acceptable. Which, if we recognize that their policies increase the number of homes on the market as well as their prices, evokes the image of a hamster on a flywheel. And that hamster WILL get tired at some point.

Who loses in this set-up? First, homebuyers, since they pay much more for their homes than if the government would stay out of the market. Then again, what obligations do the buyers really have? They get a home for free, more or less, and often with a non-recourse loan to boot. In the end, the by far biggest losers are the American taxpayers, who have to watch helplessly as their own chosen government shifts a fast increasing share of the losses of the housing market onto their tab, all solely for the benefit of the one and only party that stands to profit.

That is, the banks. Which can unload repossessed properties at much higher prices, given the tax credits. Which can keep properties and loans at greatly elevated prices on their books, which allows them to fool their shareholders and depositors into thinking they are far more healthy then they would be without government involvement. Who can use the artificially raised "values" on their books for highly leveraged financial wagers that if they pay off allow for multi-billion dollar bonuses, and if they don't can be channeled back to the taxpayers' account.

Why is this so important for the government? Why does Barney Frank proudly declare that the nation has a solemn commitment to those alleged "stable" housing prices?

Because without them, a huge chunk of America's 8000+ banks will be toast. More importantly, much of Tim Geithner's speed-dial list will be gone. He'll have no-one left to talk to before breakfast.

There are many of us who feel offended by the bank bail-outs and the bonuses paid with the bail-out money. But there is nothing that perverts America more than its government's housing policies. Take away Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie and the FHA, and you bankrupt the entire financial system with the stroke of a pen. The entire far too highly leveraged structure of loans, securities and derivatives in the end is based on the US housing market. That's why Obama and his people do what they do. Losing a million jobs a month is much less important than average home prices falling by $10,000 in that same month.

It's a lost battle, and they know it. But that means that they have nothing more to lose either, and they might as well transfer all the losses to you that they can get away with. Which is what is happening. While you discuss who does or does not stay on at reality TV shows, who gets vaccinated and who doesn't, who gets to fly a balloon and who stays at home, who should or should not be part of a health care system the government can't afford to implement anyway.

And I haven’t even touched on the home buyer tax credit fraud that lets infants, inmates and non-Americans cash in. Or the Nancy Pelosi proposal, sure to be voted in, that will extend the homebuyer tax credit to everybody who can fog a mirror, no questions asked, and make it $15,000 from the original $8000. Nor the fact that home sales have not, as claimed, increased by 9.4% in September, not even with all the credits in place.

There is no better and easier way to rob people blind then to make them think you're doing them a favor. Giving them an $8000 credit on a home priced at $250,000, that without that credit would cost them no more than $100,000, will be preferred over the cheaper home. Hey, it's free money. Isn't it?

The greatest theft in American history is not in the past. It's on ongoing operation. And it's run by your government.

[Tansy_Gold]

26. Is something more sinister going on?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=159x13851

I post a link to a DU thread from yesterday regarding an AP report of

Detriot House Auction Flops for Urban Wasteland

originally posted by CoffeeCat in LBN and moved by the mods to the Michigan forum. Some of us thought it belonged in LBN, but oh well.

<snip>
Source: Reuters via Yahoo

DETROIT (Reuters) – In a crowded ballroom next to a bankrupt casino, what remains of the Detroit property market was being picked over by speculators and mostly discarded.

After five hours of calling out a drumbeat of "no bid" for properties listed in an auction book as thick as a city phone directory, the energy of the county auctioneer began to flag.

"OK," he said. "We only have 300 more pages to go."

There was tired laughter from investors ready to roll the dice on a city that has become a symbol of the collapse of the U.S. auto industry, pressures on the industrial middle-class and intractable problems for the urban poor.

On the auction block in Detroit: almost 9,000 homes and lots in various states of abandonment and decay from the tidy owner-occupied to the burned-out shell claimed by squatters.


<snip>

Many potential homeowners that Detroit desperately needs said they felt penalized by the auction process.

They mostly found themselves outbid by deeper-pocketed investors from California and New York who were in a race to claim the auction book's relatively few livable properties.

Dozens of potential bidders, mostly local residents, were turned away on the first day of the auction by deputies after they failed to meet the morning deadline for registration.

Ross Wallace, a lieutenant in the U.S. Army, turned in his check for $500 and waited on the auction floor in full dress uniform for a chance to buy a Detroit house on the cheap.

Wallace, 27, said he did not want to leave his fiancee and two children with a mortgage before shipping out to Iraq later this year.

"I still have student loans and I'm trying to be responsible. I don't want to leave debt," he said.

Wallace waited for the auction to roll around to Detroit's Boston-Edison district, a once stately area that was home to boxing legend Joe Louis and Motown founder Berry Gordy.

But he was quickly outbid. An unidentified investor at the front of the room who had scooped up several dozen properties took the home Wallace wanted for about $15,000.

"Why am I competing against a bank?" he said later. "It would be common sense to have a separate process for people who want to move back to the city or it's going to stay empty."

<end snips>


The "something more sinister" as brought up in the DU discussion is whether or not Detroit, like New Orleans, is being subjected to a form of ethnic cleansing.

Anyway, I thought it was worth a notice here in SMW.


Tansy Gold, who just finished paying her property taxes last week

[Demeter]

38. Somehow I Missed That

Detroit needs a policy that you have to live in the house you buy. We had that here, as a co-op, and we may revert to that in the condos, since all of our really bad problems are due to renters with absentee landlords...

What Detroit wants is tax revenues. What it needs are people with jobs. Selling to "investors" will get them neither. Absentee landlords aren't reliable for taxes long-term either. But the cash infusion from the auction could help for a short while.

We need government and business that looks toward longer horizons than the next quarter or the next budget. We need to build living spaces, not taxable assets.

The whole damn country needs a slap upside the head.

[AnneD]

47. We have been looking to buy a retirement house in Detriot...

but they seem to be scams. We are willing to pay a lower price and put in sweat equity. We will be having a steady retirement income so we would be bringing in money to the area. We thought we would be desirable, but obviously not.

[PassingFair]

50. My mother's selling the house I grew up in ....

Nice 3 bedroom brick in a sweet neighborhood.

PM me is you want any details, AnneD.

:hi:

[amandabeech]

44. This will help Timmy Geithner sell his home in New York at a price that he wants it to be worth.

I'm sure that the issue has his utmost attention.

On the other hand, he doesn't have to worry about getting a job. His friends will make sure that he has a very nice position when he leaves government service whether or not anyone else in this country is employed, including the president.

[AnneD]

19. We have a winner in the FDIC FLAME OUT CONTEST.....

NC4BO accurately predicted this weekend as the date that the number of failed banks would top 100. So it is the hobo special pizza. Beans and rice and some sliced tube steak (and a touch of cheese to bind it to the crust) for everyone).

Now for a little dinner music to go with it.......


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CW0hGhINjc&feature=rela...


Congrats on the guess, This was a lot longer than I anticipated.

[ozymandius]

21. I'll second that.

Congratulations, NC4BO! Not only did we surpass 100 - but in grand style with 106.

Dr. Phool wondered if there were any banks left in Georgia. There are, still. There is one bank located underneath an overpass near the Fulton County Jail. Its tires are a bit threadbare. But still - it's a bank.

[Demeter]

22. Is That Bob's Bank?

Garrison Keillor:

What can we do? We have to strengthen the dollar and that means keeping your money out of the hands of the big banks who are only going to throw it down a rathole. Bob's Bank in the little Green Mobile Home — has never indulged in subprime mortgages. Neither a borrower nor a lender be, is the motto at Bob's — so save at the sign of the sock.


http://prairiehome.publicradio.org/programs/2008/04/05/scripts/bank.shtml

[DemReadingDU]

25. Thanks for the song, interesting pictures with the video

and congrats to NC4BO. yum, hobo pizza!

[nc4bo]

45. *Sigh* All I can say is enjoy the pizza and.....

how dreadful this whole economic situation is and will be for so many people.

Thanks for the dinner music & vid. I got chills watching and not the good kind.

We've been bamboozled, sold-out, swindled and kicked the curb in grand fashion I'd say.

[Demeter]

23. Philosophical Query: Is It Too Early to Despair, or Too Late?

Seeing as it's not even 8 AM on Monday....

[ozymandius]

24. Interesting bits from Naked Capitalism:

Democrats seek power over failing companies: Financial Times and U.S. Considers Reining In ‘Too Big to Fail’ Institutions: New York Times. Sanity check, dear readers: if Congress can’t pass a meaningful bill on credit default swaps after AIG, do you think anything other than a fig leaf will come out of this effort?

link

Bye, folks.

:hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

52. If the employees owned the companies, do you think they'd have

shipped production to Mexico or China or Turkey or Sri Lanka or Vietnam?

I'm thinking of all the manufacturing companies that have shifted their operations to places with cheaper labor because doing so produces higher profits for the stockholders. If the employees were the stockholders, do you think the jobs would have fled?

And isn't that the way a marxist model would have worked? By owning the means of production they'd have an incentive to maintain that ownership? And if, say, the Chinese workers wanted to enjoy those same benefits, they'd import a few American manufacturing engineers and build up their own "consumer" economy as a closed loop? And because it was the workers in control, wouldn't they have traded fairly with other worker-owned economies?

or am I just dreaming because I'm exhausted?



Tansy Gold, who probably should repost this on Tuesday. . . . .

[UpInArms]

27. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.380 Change -0.095 (-0.12%)

US Dollar Will Have to Weigh 3Q GDP for Fundamental and Risk Impact

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2009-10-24-0414-US_Dollar_Will_Have_to.html

What little strength the dollar seems to find during the trading week seems to ultimately be swept away by the financial markets’ primary fundamental driver – sentiment. Whether or not the dollar makes for the ideal funding currency to the recuperating carry trade, it has already been put into that niche; and the rationale of the situation will not be reevaluated until either the trend stalls or there is a prominent change in the dollar’s fundamental makeup. There is the sense that this currency has resigned to a seeming permanence in its role as the FX whipping boy and the steady decline to fresh 14-month lows day after day. However, while the rise in risk appetite has maintained its bearing, it has a lost much of its fervor. This could signal the first stage of a reversal in yield appetite (and the subsequent recovery in the US dollar); and it could open the door for the big ticket 3Q GDP release to finally loosen sentiment’s hold over price action.

So far, we have absorbed two notable, third quarter growth readings from major economies; the results couldn’t have shown any greater contrast. Representing the strong face of the emerging market, China reported its economy grew 8.9 percent year-over-year through the third quarter. On the other end of the spectrum, the United Kingdom surprised the market by reporting a 0.4 percent contraction through the three month period ending with September and extending the economy’s worst recession on record. Will the US draw greater similarities to its British or Chinese counterpart? Economists’ expectations are impressive. A projected 3.2 percent annualized pace of growth through the quarter would shed the stigma of recession and bolster hope for a solid recovery on what would be the most significant pace of growth in two years. Gauging whether these projections are reasonable and determining whether the world’s largest economy is on a true pace of expansion, we need to breakdown the major sectors. Government spending plugged the whole but consumer spending, capital investment and a housing recovery are essential for material growth. Housing sales have certainly recovered and construction activity is stabilizing. Earnings through the second and third quarters suggest businesses will pick up production and start spending once gain. Yet, accounting for approximately three quarters of economic output, consumer spending is the backbone of the economy. Confidence seems to have already turned the corner; but consumption and planned purchases are both shaky.

Adding another complication to the high level release, we need to determine whether the dollar will produce a straightforward response to the data or the currency will default to its safe haven role. This is a complicated question; and it depends as much as what is happening with the capital markets heading into the release as the actual data itself. If there is a consistent rise to new heights in optimism, the sentiment aspect will likely win out. Alternatively, if risk appetite happens to commence a meaningful retracement beforehand, the relief for the greenback should allow for an intuitive response.

Keeping everything in perspective though; it is important to realize that the dollar does not have the characteristics of a long-term funding currency. Depressed market rates and benchmark yields are temporary; and there is little reason to doubt policy officials will not be able to work down deficits. Should the US return to growth with this 3Q reading, roles will start to reverse as fundamental realism dawns. On the other hand, a disappointment like that born of the UK’s status report could strengthen the unwanted correlation in the short-term.



...more...

Euro Top Remains Elusive, but ECB Rate Forecasts May Bring Reversal

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/eur/2009-10-23-2257-Euro_Top_Remains_Elusive__but.html

The Euro continued its dominance against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week of trading, closing above the psychologically significant $1.50 mark for the first time in 14 months. Unlike previous weeks, however, the single currency persevered against the safe-haven US Dollar despite relatively lackluster performance in the S&P 500 and other key risk sentiment barometers. Last week we argued that the high-flying EURUSD would increasingly need support from risky assets to continue its impressive rallies. Yet the S&P 500 finished the week 0.75 percent lower and yet the Euro traded higher.

A surprisingly bullish streak for key European economic data seemingly made the difference, and fundamental forecasts for domestic growth remain quite bullish. Whether this is enough to propel the Euro to fresh highs is perhaps another matter, however, and a relatively important string of economic releases could force substantive shifts in Euro forecasts.

Impressive German IFO Business Confidence figures and Euro Zone Purchasing Manager Index numbers set the stage for respectable recovery across broad swaths of the regional economy. Indeed, sanguine growth forecasts have led traders to price in relatively substantial interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank. The lure of higher yields has undoubtedly played a part in Euro/US Dollar rallies, but the extent of Euro appreciation leaves it at clear risk of pullback. ECB watchers will keep a close eye on the coming week’s German and Euro Zone Consumer Price Index figures for important surprises. Current consensus forecasts call for yet another negative year-over-year change in Euro Zone Consumer Prices, but the rate of contraction is expected to narrow to a meager 0.1 percent. Suffice it to say, any material disappointments could make a considerable dent on ECB interest rate expectations. Wednesday’s German CPI figures could subsequently set the tone for near-term Euro/US dollar trading.

Traders will otherwise keep a close watch on global risky asset classes—especially as the Euro’s correlation to the S&P 500 trades near record highs. The US Dow Jones Industrial Average’s close below the psychologically significant 10,000 mark suggests that financial market risk appetite is not quite as robust as previously believed. Yet we would hardly call for a market top without a more substantive pullback across a broad swath of indicators. FX Options market volatility expectations have come down since last week’s peak, but it should be yet another week of eventful price action out of the Euro and US Dollar in the face of noteworthy event risk.



...more...

[Ghost Dog]

32. Dollar Forced to Abdicate Its Throne - Peter Schiff

...

To save our currency, the Fed must get very aggressive with interest rate hikes and reign in the supply of dollars that have flooded the world over the past few years. The federal government must also do its part by cutting spending, which means no more stimulus and no more bailouts. Undoubtedly, these actions will have unpleasant economic and political consequences. A student who studies harder may have to miss a party or two. A simple analogy, but unfortunately it is that simple.

Even in the unlikely event that our political leaders take these courageous steps, the near-term trajectory of the dollar may still be uncertain. A dollar rally that results from higher interest rates and a narrowing federal deficit may soon fade as the recessionary forces that such moves would unleash act to weaken the dollar once again. But at least we would be building a foundation upon which the dollar could eventually find some footing.

With a restructured economy, higher savings, more capital investment, lower government deficits, and higher interest rates, the United States would once again attract international investment. Funds would flow here not out of fear, as they did last year, but out of confidence. The dollar's strength would not rest on the willingness of foreign governments to buy our debt, but the willingness of foreign consumers to buy our products.

Only then could King Dollar regain its throne.

/... http://seekingalpha.com/article/168710-dollar-forced-to-abdicate-its-throne

[DemReadingDU]

28. interesting government job

Bank Review Specialist (Failed Banks)


JOB SUMMARY:
The Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) is the primary regulator of savings associations and savings association holding companies. OTS is a bureau of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and has four regional offices located in Jersey City, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas.
As a Bank Review Specialist (Failed Institutions), you report to the Director, Internal Review (Quality Assurance) in Washington, DC and will complete internal reviews of all failed thrift institutions to identify reasons for failure, assess OTS supervision, discuss lessons learned, and make recommendations to improve the examination/supervisory process. You also participate in the quality control function to identify and control risks in the examination and supervision process. Employees are offered a comprehensive pay, benefits and a family-friendly environment.

KEY REQUIREMENTS:
This position requires substantial travel
All candidates must possess the selective factor
Applicants must apply via USAJOBS.

more info...
http://jobview.usajobs.gov/GetJob.aspx?JobID=84054346&aid=62173319-21109&WT.mc_n=125


What is 'the selective factor'?

[natrat]

29. defecits as far as the eye can see

http://dailyreckoning.com/making-mischief-with-the-us-economy/

[Tansy_Gold]

30. Love the cartoon!!

Well, i would if it weren't so damn true. . . . . :grr:

[InkAddict]

31. Previous experience w/Arthur Andersen/Accenture/GS?

"Down the road and down the road he went. He was going to find a home of his own; a home for a bunny, a home of his own, under a rock, under a stone, under a log, or under the ground. Where would a bunny find a home?""
- Margaret Wise Brown, Home for a Bunny

[Demeter]

41. Alumnus of Golden Sacks?

BF of Larry Summers?

Formerly employed by Anderson Little?

[Demeter]

43. Well, I Got the Saturn Fixed and NO Idiot Lights Are Blinking Anymore!

and I feel so much smarter! New head gasket and oil sensor and coolant sensor and voila! Now, new tires ($20 off coupon, big whoop, but $20 is $20) and I should make it through the winter if the transmission holds up. What a trooper this little Saturn is! The car is too beat up to die.


Mood has gone from despair to cautiously optimistic.

[skoalyman]

48. I see the dollar swung to the upside,

wonder if it can keep it up ?:shrug:

[DemReadingDU]

49. VIX rose by $2.04

Perhaps a bit of fear in the markets this afternoon?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^VIX


eidt: new link
http://tinyurl.com/586fy3

[ozone_man]

51. It's only the beginning...

When the stocks market goes down, the dollar goes up, gold goes down. Which is cause, which is effect? Well, equities are way overpriced imo and our economic rebound is not real (deficit spending induced), so the market should be coming down from here, with a safe flight to cash once again. My 2c.