US jobs created look poor in both quality and quantity

[ze_dscherman]

Job creation figures in the US may have struck many economists as dismal over the past few months. But even as job quantity dominates the political agenda, the quality of the few jobs being created has also caused concern.


Of 290,000 private-sector jobs created since April 2003, most - 215,000 - have been temporary positions, according to last week's employment figures. Private-sector employment would have fallen last month without the creation of 32,000 temporary jobs in the professional and business services sector.

About 4.3m Americans are also forced to accept part-time positions because they have failed to find full-time work - 1m higher than the January 2000 number.

SNIP

The prevalence of such stop-gap job hiring casts doubt on President George W. Bush's ability to benefit from an economic feel-good factor ahead of November's presidential election. It also helps explain why wage growth is only just managing to keep pace with inflation, at about 2 per cent.

SNIP

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381643816&p=1012571727102

Note to mods: The news is a bit older than 12 hrs, however I did not find this reported elswhere.

[UpInArms]

1. this paragraph shoots the theory of "tax cuts = jobs" all

to hell

Some economists even suspect that Mr Bush's tax incentives for business investment, which allow for 50 per cent depreciation in the first year on most business equipment, may have temporarily helped tilt the balance in favour of spending on equipment instead of new permanent workers. This incentive is due to expire at the end of this year but may have contributed to the 15.1 per cent growth rate of business investment in the final quarter of 2003.

Thanks for posting this ze_dscherman :hi:

[ze_dscherman]

2. Just working on the magic 1000+

Ha! Another post closer ;)

UIA, did you see this reported anywhere else than in the FT? By now this news is 15+ hours old and NO ONE has picked it up.

Definitely, Chomsky was right when he advised to read financial papers - because, in order to run the system, at least some knowledge of what really goes on is necessary.

:hi:

Ze_Dscherman

[UpInArms]

5. no other reports regarding the absolute weakness

of the numbers - there seems to be a dearth of investigation into the way our labor statistics are achieved.

No one (but a very few financial papers) even seem to regard this as an issue at all.

I don't understand why *Co has not been called out regarding the continued cheerleading about jobs just around the corner, poised on the edge of the cusp, in the next quarter, going to be happening any time soon, blah blah blah.

Are they hoping that if they continue to ignore the reality, it will just go away?

Is it another case (like in RayGun's term) of "all who believe in Tinkerbell should keep clapping their hands"?

Come and join us at the SMW and you'll definitely surpass 1000 in minutes :D

[ProfessorGAC]

8. Don't Say No One!

I've been writing about this right here on DU and have had 2 papers published that decry the falsity of the news reports about economic "health". There is no recovery, there is no sustainable growth of real GDP, and the Employment Saturation Index (a stat i came up with to measure economic health) is flat and below the prior 10 year average.

So, someone out here in the econ community has been saying this. Just that people with views that differ with the conventional theories, don't get interviewed by major newspapers.
The Professor

[UpInArms]

9. no offense meant ProfessorGAC

I, too, have been writing regarding the insanity of our fiscal policies and the employment statistics.

I was merely referring to mainstream media where information that affects all citizens should be distributed and analyzed in a public forum - generating debate and discussion at all levels.

Keep up your excellent work!

[ProfessorGAC]

10. On That We Agree!

My blood boils when i see 2" type on the front page of the Tribune that the economy grew by 8.2% in 3Q03, when i KNOW that's not accurate. When the adjustments were finally made to account for the much larger than predicted trade imbalance, it was on page 14!

The term "jobless recovery" really aggravates me too! Based upon a model and paper which i recently had published, the ESI is independent of GDP growth and is actually a predictor of near future performance of the economy. So, if there are no jobs, THERE IS NO RECOVERY! Jobs don't come because of recovery. Recovery comes because of jobs! So, when i see that, practically every day in some paper or the other, i get disgusted.

Too bad the mainstream media doesn't have people that actually know how to look at economic data. Alas, they apparently do not.
The Professor

[UpInArms]

12. a journalist that I know

told me that the reason that this issue seems not to be covered and discussed is that the numbers are so large that most people cannot relate to them -

He reminded me of the time that there was an uproar because of personal checks bouncing in the Congress and the public got upset about it because they at least could understand that scenario.

When we talk billions and trillions and the numbers are so large - it tends to glaze them over.

Any suggestions?

[Lithos]

13. What would you consider a good book/website

To educate them? Or to educate us to educate them?

Too bad the mainstream media doesn't have people that actually know how to look at economic data. Alas, they apparently do not.

[Yavin4]

15. Amen, Professor, Amen

There's an incentive for corporate commercial media to keep telling people that everything is okay because they want people to keep spending well beyond their means

[54anickel]

3. More stimulus. This whole "recovery" is artificial, fake, faux

phony, counterfeit, thanks to smoke & mirrors and the man behind the curtain.
50% depreciation in the first year! Unfrigginbelievable. Is this another one Shrub wanted to be made permanent?

[0007]

4. junior just said yesterday that the economy is getting stronger

with good jobs opening up, America couldn't be in better shape, he said.

[Judi Lynn]

6. So I wonder if there'll be any official acknowledgement of this news.

Thanks for the info. It's going to be interesting watching the spin on this.

These people are so pathetic.

[catmandu57]

7. Let the moron* have 11 sept.

We need to focus on American pocketbook issues, American infrastructure issues, Education, Energy, and the lack of leadership since the moron*'s junta stole the government.

[Crachet2004]

11. I think more drum-beating by us would be appropriate...

as to the QUALITY of any new jobs created. Eventually, before the election, hiring may well pick up, and even though we are winning the debate now, it would'nt hurt to have a prepared position to fall back to.

Then we could say, yeah, a few jobs were created, but what kind are they? The 32,000 temp jobs in business services last month were no doubt tax preparer positions. WOOhoo. Better than Burger King, maybe, but not exactly the American Dream. And not long term.

And I think an effort should be made by The Democtat Party, to generate more realistic overall numbers on unemployment and inflation...as these are two statistics people are used to reading about, that impact more immediately on their lives than say, balance of trade. Any further plumbing of the depths of economic arcana is probably unnecessary, for political purposes, if not counterproductive...as it makes peoples eyes glaze over.

People know intuitively, the figures given for inflation and unemployment, are manipulated. They see proof of it everyday. Maybe we should drive this point home and blame it on the GOP.

Bush is lying about the numbers, just like the WMD, and we can prove it. They ARE lying, you know.

[salin]

14. heard an Anonymous state Labor Dept official yesterday

on a local call-in show. Said the figures were greatly deflated due to not counting folks falling off the UE roles - to a magnitude for the state (IN) of about 14% opposed to the under 6% being reported, stated that the figure in the neighboring states of OH and ILL were around 12% - and clarified that these numbers did not include those working part-time - as in when someone even begins working a few hours a week they are no longer counted.