STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 12

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 12, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 9, 2009

Dow... 9,864.94 +78.07 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq... 2,139.28 +15.35 (+0.72%)
S&P 500... 1,071.49 +6.01 (+0.56%)
Gold future... 1,049 -7.70 (-0.73%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.38 +0.13 (+4.10%)
30-Year Bond 4.22 +0.13 (+3.18%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Videos:
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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[rfranklin]

1. Happy Columbus Day! Let's rape and pillage in his honor!

The white man's burden is so heavy...

[JNelson6563]

35. Meet you on Wall St.!

:toast:

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning, everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

The internets are slow for me today as they have been all weekend. We lost service Saturday morning due to some intense storms that made their way through the area Friday night. Service has not seemed normal since then. Similarly, a storm rages outside right now. How's it in your area?

[Dr.Phool]

5. Good morning.

Got the day off today? Enjoy!

Toobs seem to be working fine. Hotter than hell outside. Record highs.

[ozymandius]

7. Thanks.

It is a holiday for state employees. So I decided to take an extra hour without an alarm.

My intertubes shut down for several minutes again. I think I'll give my ISP a call when they're awake.

[rfranklin]

6. The tubes in NJ seems to be glowing as usual...

no problem so far.

[DemReadingDU]

9. great toon today

chilly and frosty in SW Ohio

[ozymandius]

11. Rainy and cool here.

Highs in the 60s (cue hippy humor here) for most of the week.

[AnneD]

37. Mourning Marketeers.......

:hangover: The weather matches the mood-cold, overcast, wet. The perfect weather for a funeral or a day of mourning such as it is in the Indian community. I think because we got legal redress, the Cherokee are not as bitter-but I can understand other tribes bitterness.

Well on to our game. As you know 3 banks were bought out....but none taken over by the FDIC so.......the game is still a foot. We are at 96 and holding. So it's time for.
FDIC FLAME OUT or WHAT DO YOU WANT ON YOUR TOMBSTONE:

As you know, the FDIC is bank closures are up to 96. Our question is ......When Will We Hit Number 100. I'll give you a clue-it will probably be on a Friday and a big pizza delivery will be involved. So get your calendars out boys and girls. Will we be eating turkey, will we get an extra trick this Halloween, or will we get that extra lump of coal we will need to see us through this winter. Post your guess.

The only difference now is you can only have two guesses and no changes.

What will the winner get....A virtual pizza of your choice: the Bernanke Bologna Bargain, the Geithner Gorgonzola Goliath, the Summer's Sausage Special, the Obama Oahu Pipe Line Pork and Pineapple Special, the 911 Health Care Special (empty box only, no substitutions), the Warren Wrap, or enjoy our wonderful Buffet Buffet.

So place those bets and watch your spreads. I will post them as soon as I can and within the next day. If you have a special pizza that you want, be sure to post that too. I am cranking up the fire and will be happy to help you roast your own pizza.......


Oct 9, 2009
Ozy(1)
The Watcher(1)
Demeter (1)a Hawaiian Special sub Ham instead of Canadian Bacon-would you like feta with that?
Dr Pool(1) his own personal Kielbasa and Saurkraut Pizza


Oct13,2009
Tansy Gold (1) going against the trend for a sentimental fav


Oct 16, 2009
AnneD (1) close to my sentimental black Friday-I'll have the pork and pineapple special.
Dr Pool (2)
NC4BO (1) A Hobo Special-rice, beans, and sliced tube steak (hot dogs)



Oct 23, 2009
NC4BO (2) A Hobo Special-rice, beans, and sliced tube steak (hot dog)




Watch for our next Pool the Dow 10000!!!! We will begin the Dow Pool after or Flame out game so put your thinking caps on, warm up that Ouija, and shine that crystal ball.

Those that guessed this last weekend can have a second guess if they haven't already chosen a second date.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[tclambert]

47. As the resident optimist here . . .

I predict you have your contests backwards. We'll hit Dow 10,000 BEFORE we hit bank closures 100. It's a math thing. We're 1% from Dow 10,000, 4% from 100 bank closures.

Here's my virtual pizza preference: Seafood pizza. A little bit of garlic and ginger and cheddar cheese mixed into the crust. Mozzarella with grated parmesan on top. NO TOMATO SAUCE! Instead, Alfredo sauce. Lobster, crab, shrimp, and scallops for the toppings. Drizzle of EVOO. How's that sound?

[AnneD]

50. I've been thinking about that.....

how about this.... the DJIA is 10x the value of an ounce of gold. That's something I never thought I'd see-but here you have it. Just a thought to all you gamblers out there.

[tclambert]

56. But what did you think of the seafood pizza?

[AnneD]

58. I love anchovies on my pizza.....

but that doesn't seem to be too popular. Living on the coast, I am blessed to eat fresh seafood. But instead of eating seafood-I would rather some of these folks slept with the fishes.

[Dr.Phool]

61. You should be down in Florida now.

Stone crab comes back in season on Thursday. I make a pizza with alfredo, garlic, stone crab meat, mushrooms and provolone. Habaneros or jalapenos optional, with anchovies on the side.

That's what I'm talking about.

[AnneD]

65. Sounds better than that...

sauerkraut and kielbasa thing you and Demeter had going the other day.

[Demeter]

15. Cold, Calm, but no frost, evidently

inside, it's hot!

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. A heavy frost up heyah in the glacier State.

After the mild winter (supposed to have been summer) there wasn't much in the gardens to lose however.
:donut:

[AnneD]

59. It was so hot down here in Texas this summer....

you could pick your cooked vegtables fresh off the vine.

edited to add: if you had any vegtables that is.

[Tansy_Gold]

62. Chilly here today as summer gave way abruptly to winter

High won't be much above 85 this afternoon. :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

63. Break out the thermals.....

:evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

3. Market Observation by Tim W. Wood

Uncharted Waters
BY TIM W. WOOD

Gold is expensive. That's about it.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

4. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

8. Oil rises near $73 ahead of US earnings results

VIENNA – Oil prices approached $73 a barrel Monday as investors looked to a slew of U.S. corporate earnings reports this week for signs of economic recovery.

.....
Crude investors will be eyeing third quarter company results and forecasts for the rest of the year for clues about the strength of the U.S. economy. Top banks JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. report this week along with Google Inc., Southwest Airlines Co., Intel Corp., IBM Corp., General Electric Co., and Johnson & Johnson.

.....
In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose by more than 2 cents to $1.88 a gallon. Gasoline for November delivery gained close to 2 cents to fetch $1.78 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery jumped 7 cents to $4.85 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

10. El-Erian ‘New Normal’ May Beat Summers ‘Rocket Ship’ This Week

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Mohamed El-Erian, co-head of the world’s biggest bond fund, says the U.S. economy is in for a sustained period of below-normal growth. Lawrence Summers, President Barack Obama’s top economic adviser, disagrees.

Economic reports this week may support El-Erian, who manages $842 billion together with Bill Gross at Pacific Investment Management Co. Retail sales probably fell in September and industrial production slowed after the government’s cash-for-clunkers auto-rebate program expired, economists forecast, indicating the economy remains dependent on government aid.

Summers “needs to get out of Washington some,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We have got a huge hole to come out of. Individuals’ forecasts of how much income they will earn over their lives and how much wealth they will build up has been reduced. That’s the new normal.’”

.....
El-Erian, 51, compared Summers’ view of the U.S. economy to a three-stage rocket ship attempting to escape the pull of Earth’s gravity. The first stage is government spending, followed by inventory reductions and consumer demand.

.....
Stock investors are supporting Summers’s view. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 58 percent since its low for the year on March 9. Last week, the index rose 4.5 percent, the best weekly performance since July, after Alcoa Inc.’s first profitable quarter in a year boosted investor optimism about the economic recovery.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20091012/pl_bloomberg/asp2wcxs3fp4

---

The last paragraph I posted really says it all about Summer's PoV. When the stock markets are utilized as a guidepost for future economic performance then all I have to say is "good luck." That's a ploy of pure folly.

[Dr.Phool]

12. Just when they think things are taking off smoothly.

The "O Rings" let loose.

[Po_d Mainiac]

25. Naw...they fergut to fuel the third stage

won't even be a bang.

[AnneD]

39. You two are just awful......

:evilgrin:

[Dr.Phool]

41. It's even worse than you think.

My former business partner (in the pizza shop), and good friend, with whom I've worked many campaigns, used to assign the SRB's for the shuttle. After the Challenger disaster, he was put in charge of the O-Ring problem. He says to this day, that he gave Bill Nelson the wrong rockets.

[Po_d Mainiac]

43. That comment didn't help my hernia :roflmao:

[AnneD]

51. Recommended viewing...

Space Cowboy with Clint Eastwood, Matt Garner, Donald Sutherland and Tommy Lee Jones.

[Po_d Mainiac]

52. when did Rockford change his name? n/t

[tclambert]

54. I'm sure she meant James Garner. But now I've got the theme from The Rockford Files stuck in my head

Well, it's a good theme. I've got it on CD here somewhere along with the themes from other TV shows like Hill Street Blues, Hawaii Five-O, Greatest American Hero, and Cheers. Might even have Super Chicken.

[AnneD]

57. I'm so sorry-it is James....

and now I am singing the Super Chicken Song (yes I remember the lyrics). Per my muscian daughter...the best way to get rid of those musical ear worms is to sing the Star Spangled Banner. It really does work for me.

[fasttense]

13. How come our government was able to stop the black hole

that was sucking up banks/Wall Street/Insurance firms but has been unable to increase the numbers of jobs in our economy by even one measly number? (and they cheer when only a quarter of a million jobs disappear in a month instead of half a million.)

Something is terribly wrong.

[InkAddict]

30. You are assuming they plugged the black hole; perhaps they

just covered it over with an opaque piece of plastic wrap, a generic brand that never sticks to the rim as claimed.

[DemReadingDU]

46. Don't black holes go to infinity?

There's no stopping the government filling up the banks/Wall Street/Insurance firms with our tax money.

[ozymandius]

14. Summers defends stimulus efforts

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- President Barack Obama's top economic adviser said Monday the United States is on the path toward economic recovery, conditions in financial markets are steadier and there have been initial signs of stabilization in the housing market.

.....
Obama is facing rising clamor to take new steps to lift the economy and jump-start job growth, as U.S. unemployment edges toward 10% and the country faces soaring budget deficits. The bleak jobs picture could put some of Obama's Democratic allies at risk in next year's congressional elections, unless voters are convinced they are doing all they can to help the economy.

"Most importantly, we have seen a substantial change in the trend of job loss," Summers said in the letter, which the White House said was written in response to a letter from Boehner to Obama, which it did not release.

The U.S. economy lost jobs at a monthly average rate of 256,000 in the third quarter of 2009, which Summers termed "unacceptably high." But he noted it was nearly a third of the pace of job losses of two quarters ago.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/12/news/economy/Summers_stimulus.reut/index.htm?postversion=2009101206

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And to think this man was once president of Harvard University.

The trend in job loss has been mitigated by productivity factors and their complimentary levels of employment. Some companies cannot shed any more jobs unless either they plan to become less productive (which makes no sense) or they plan to cease operations. Productivity establishes an employment floor for the former scenario. However, that does not mean that employers are hiring again - evidenced by the present attrition rate and the rising U6 unemployment stats.

Our economy needs to create 150k new jobs each month to keep pace with population growth. Using my trusty calculator - that means we need to create 1.8 million jobs every year until the "acceptable" unemployment rate reaches to the lows experienced in the mid-90's at around 4% in 2000.

Before you think that I am inadvertently patting Larry Summers on the back because he was the Clinton administration's Treasury Secretary during the period the experienced historic unemployment lows - he was Treasury Secretary long after Greenspan's bubble philosophy fueled unsustainably rapid job growth. He deserves credit for the phenomenal job creation no more than the White House kitchen staff does.

[ozymandius]

16. And he was a proponent of repealing Glass-Steagall.

Idiot.

[exboyfil]

23. I guess I question this quote

"Some companies cannot shed any more jobs unless either they plan to become less productive (which makes no sense) or they plan to cease operations. Productivity establishes an employment floor for the former scenario."

They can still shed U.S. jobs in favor of outsourcing, offshoring, or hiring immigrant labor under current laws, policies, and enforcement. They can also use technology with outsourcing/offshoring in a combined approach. For example Target letting go some of its managers in favor of video surveliance done overseas.

Still lots of gold in them hills.

[ozymandius]

27. That is a good point.

In my fit of pique, that is something I overlooked.

The corollary that sticks in my head is the state of U.S. consumer consumption due to unemployment. GDP is 71% consumer driven. Consumption has fallen dramatically due to the behavioral aspects of job insecurity and job loss. The question remains: how can consumption be sustained when the customer base is shrinking?

[exboyfil]

29. I don't think it can

I think we are in a death spiral. A $700B trade deficit will do that to you (along with the other crap that went on and is still going on).

I only spend because of the kids to give them some normalcy in their lives. I don't spend on myself, and I feel relatively secure about my job (at least for the next six years).

[AnneD]

53. I don't put much stock in Harvard these days.....

Bush Jr graduated with a Master's and Geitner was President. I am underwhelmed. The only thing worse than the Chicago School of Biddness seems to be Harvard.

[Demeter]

17. Summers Needs a Field Trip

Fire his ass so he can go down to the unemployment office and learn something. Again. The lesson didn't take last time, or he got "rescued" too early.

[rfranklin]

36. But they really believe that the markets are "forward looking" and...

can predict the future.

[ozymandius]

18. Why Financial Reform Died: “Banks Run Congress”

The short answer: Key members of Congress are owned by the financial services group’s lobbyists.

The longer answer: Lobbyists from the financial industry have paid hundreds of millions to Congress, the Bush and Obama administrations. (See yesterday’s Total Campaign Contributions/Lobbying by TARP Recipients)

Virtually all key Congressional members and senators on committees overseeing finances and banking are owned by the industry — they are Bought and Paid For.

This is easy to confirm in black-and-white. See for yourself: here, here, here, here, here and here.

more good info at The Big Picture

[natrat]

38. and that probably pales to the under the table money to cayman accounts

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 10/08/2009 11,898,952,750,944.53 (DOWN 26,766,777,000.09) (Thu, surplus)

(Obama actually has a small SURPLUS going on here. This surplus is not expected to last, but it's fun to see it and to say that for the first eight days of Obama's fiscal year 2010 he, i.e. we, have paid back ten billion more than he, thus we, borrowed. Good job Barack. This may not deserve a prize, but you do deserve the prizes you receive.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,479,183,127,883.09 + 4,419,769,623,061.44
DOWN 27,497,592,311.52 + UP 730,815,311.43

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,656,861 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,676.05.
A family of three owes $116,028.16. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,849,268,400.34.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,717,772,440.26.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 7 reports in 8 days of FY2010 averaging -1.55B$ per report, -1.36B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,200 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 10.3 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/08/2009 11,898,952,750,944.53 BHO (UP 1,272,075,702,031.45 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 -0,010,876,252,567.20 ----------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---
09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon
09/29/2009 +000,473,982,417.68 ------------********
09/30/2009 +091,724,705,747.96 ------------**********
10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 -
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********
10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon
10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------********
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -

-25,850,211,962.96 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4096114&mesg_id=4096316

[Festivito]

67. Debt: 10/09/2009 11,895,799,292,208.46 (DOWN 3,153,458,736.07) (Fri, surplus continues.)

(The Obama SURPLUS continues. This surplus is not expected to last because the budget says that it should not last, but it's fun to see it and to say that for the first nine days of Obama's fiscal year 2010 he, that is we, have paid back fourteen billion more than he, thus we, borrowed. I could become giddy if this keeps happening.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,479,168,824,625.64 + 4,416,630,467,582.82
DOWN 14,303,257.45 + DOWN 3,139,155,478.62

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,665,501 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,664.72.
A family of three owes $115,994.15. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,842,369,919.95.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,712,483,605.29.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 8 reports in 9 days of FY2010 averaging -1.75B$ per report, -1.56B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,199 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 10.0 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/09/2009 11,895,799,292,208.46 BHO (UP 1,268,922,243,295.38 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 -0,014,029,711,303.30 ----------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---
09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon
09/29/2009 +000,473,982,417.68 ------------********
09/30/2009 +091,724,705,747.96 ------------**********
10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 -
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********
10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon
10/06/2009 +000,640,950,413.48 ------------********
10/07/2009 +000,015,260,219.44 ------------*******
10/08/2009 -027,497,592,311.52 -
10/09/2009 -000,014,303,257.45 ----

-25,551,516,857.04 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4099791&mesg_id=4099843

[ozymandius]

20. Ostrom, Williamson Win Nobel Prize for Economics

Two American economists, Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson, who study the way decisions are made outside the markets on which many other economists focus, were awarded the Nobel Prize in economics Monday.

Ms. Ostrom, who teaches at Indiana University in Bloomington, Ill., is the first woman to win the prize, which, before Monday, had been awarded to 62 men since it was launched in 1969 to celebrate the 300th anniversary of the Swedish bank. The judges cited "her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons," the way in which natural resources are managed as shared resources. It is an area of research that she said was relevant to questions surrounding global warming, and suggests that decisions by individuals can help solve the problem even as governments work to reach an international agreement.

Ms. Ostrom "challenged the conventional wisdom that common property is poorly managed and should be either regulated by central authorities or privatized," the Nobel judges said. "Based on numerous studies of user-managed fish stocks, pastures, woods, lakes, and groundwater basins, (Ms.) Ostrom concludes that the outcomes are, more often than not, better than predicted by standard theories. She observes that resource users frequently develop sophisticated mechanisms for decision-making and rule enforcement to handle conflicts of interest, and she characterizes the rules that promote successful outcomes."

.....
Mr. Williamson, who is at the University of California at Berkeley, was cited for "for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm" -- the reason some economic decisions are made at arm's length in markets and others are made inside a corporation.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125534373296580027.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories

[DemReadingDU]

21. never heard of either of them, n/t

[Joe Chi Minh]

32. I don't expect it's a guarantee of merit, but it sounds a good sign.

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. User managed natural resources?

That's ripe.......
Commercial fishing has "managed" to devastate the Gulf of Maine fishery
Commercial forestry has "managed" to to clear cut vast tracts of woodlands..at the expense of of inland fisheries
The list goes on.........:wtf:

[ozymandius]

28. "User managed" in the community property sense? Maybe?

I've not read their works. So I cannot make any yea or nay calls here.

[AnneD]

40. Community property usage is something I am familiar with....

Great topic on Columbus day. This is a very Indian concept, but there was not a profit motive. Any extra resources harvested was to be used for trade with neighbouring tribes. The botton line was that you used everything and every part-very little waste.

[tclambert]

48. I like that Ms. Ostrom's work seems to have involved real data contradicting theoretical models.

Sounds like she's trying to bring reality into the field of economics, rather than basing conclusions on ludicrous assumptions. And that is progress.

[happyslug]

64. AS to Eilnor Ostrom, her Collage major was Political Science

Her research was how people handle the problem of how to handle "The Commons" without privatizing it (i.e. sell it to someone) or by Government regulation. Various people have commented that various people have address how to use a common area without excessive use without Government Regulation OR selling the common area to one person who then controls it.

For more see:
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1748208

Taking a step back, though, Ostrom did spot the occurrence of multiple design principles. “Think about architecture,” she says. “Students learn design principles such as making entryways broadly accessible and keeping kitchen smells away from bedrooms. Then they have blueprints, which are very specific ways of applying those principles.” So although Ostrom discovered no set of common-pool resource blueprints, she found that ideas such as maintaining clearly defined boundaries and collective efforts to monitor inappropriate behavior repeatedly presented themselves in successful common-pool resource regimes. In 1990, her collected efforts appeared in her book Governing the Commons (6), a work that once again set aside conventional wisdom that either privatization or government control was the best arrangement for managing common property

Other sources:
http://www.amazon.com/Governing-Commons-Evolution-Institutions-Collective/dp/0521405998#reader
http://www.cooperationcommons.com/node/361
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elinor_Ostrom

[DemReadingDU]

24. In the spirit of “we all need a laugh”, the economy is so bad that:

10/8/09 In the spirit of “we all need a laugh”, the economy is so bad that:

* I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.

* I ordered a burger at McDonalds and the kid behind the counter asked, “Can you afford fries with that?”

* CEO’s are now playing miniature golf.

* If the bank returns your check marked “Insufficient Funds,” you call them and ask if they meant you or them.

* Hot Wheels and Matchbox stocks are trading higher than GM.

* McDonalds is selling the 1/4 ouncer.

* Parents in Beverly Hills have fired their nannies and learnt their children’s names.

* A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico.

* Dick Cheney took his stockbroker hunting.

* The Mafia is laying off judges.

* Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen.

* Congress says they are looking into this Bernard Madoff scandal.
o Oh, great!! The guy who made $50 Billion disappear is being investigated by the people who made $1.5 Trillion disappear!


http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/10/08/the-economy-how-bad-is-it/

[Po_d Mainiac]

31. Or

I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail
I got one that was already max'd out

CEO’s are now playing miniature golf
and often caught sneaking onto the coarse without paying green fees

I ordered a burger at McDonalds and the kid behind the counter asked, “Can you afford fries with that?
u meant the "former engineer behind the counter" didn't ya

Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen
Thought it said EOM laid 25 Congressmen :delete:

[DemReadingDU]

34. excellent additions!

[Po_d Mainiac]

42. Left out the truckload of Mexicans..sneaking back into Mexico

[AnneD]

60. We are born naked, wet, and hungry.....

then things get worse.

Great Depression Comics

The company accountant is the shy and retiring sort. The was shy a couple of million and now he is retiring. Milton Berle

Don't stay in bed, unless you can make money. George Burns

I wish I were an acrobat so I could stand on my head and watch the stock market go up. Bob Hope

Last year we said things like this can't go on like this, and they didn't, they got worse. Famous Cherokee political humerourist Will Rodgers

from the moment I picked your book up until the minute I set it down, I convulsed with laughter. Some day I intend reading it. Groucho Marx who was wiped out in the First Depression and went into movies to rebuild his retirement. Coconuts was the first.

Every radish I pull up seems to have a mortgage attached. Ed Wynn

And of course there is Will Rogers Senator's Diary

Monday—Soak the rich.
Tuesday—Begin hearing from the rich.
Tuesday afternoon—Decide to give the rich a chance to get richer.
Wednesday—Tax Wall Street sales.
Thursday—Get word from Wall Street. "Lay off us or you will get no campaign contributions."
So Thursday afternoon—Decide "We was wrong about Wall Street."
Friday—Soak the little fellow.
Saturday morning—Find out there is no little fellow. He has been soaked until he is drowned.
Sunday—Meditate.
Next Week—Same procedure, only more talk and less results.

[tclambert]

49. Excellent. Excellent, both of ya.

[Joe Chi Minh]

33. Some absolutely brilliant stuff. The poorest is hilarious.

[DemReadingDU]

44. Martin Weiss: Dangerous Unintended Consequences

10/12/09 Martin Weiss: Dangerous Unintended Consequences

Martin here with an urgent update on the next phase of this crisis …

Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner are in for a rude awakening.

Even as they declare “victory” in their battle against the debt disaster on Wall Street, they face defeat in the war against four dangerous, unintended consequences on Main Street:

Dangerous Consequence #1
Fed Rewarding High-Roller Gamblers, While Punishing Prudent U.S. Savers!
more at link

Dangerous Consequence #2
U.S. Treasury Gobbling Up Available Credit, Crowding Out Nearly All U.S. Businesses!
more at link

Dangerous Consequence #3
Wall Street Traders Reap Gigantic Rewards; Average Workers Face Worst U.S. Job Market Ever Recorded!
more at link

Dangerous Consequence #4
The Debt Crisis of 2008 Has Now Been Transformed Into The Dollar Crisis of 2009-2010!
more at link

My recommendation: Despite their low yields, don’t let anything lure you away from the ultimate safety of Treasury bills. Plus, be sure to protect yourself from this new phase of the crisis with investments that almost invariably rise when the dollar declines.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/dangerous-unintended-consequences-8-35855

[tclambert]

55. Those aren't nearly as funny as your previous list.

I wish they were.

[DemReadingDU]

45. William Greider: Memo to Investigators: Dig Deep

10/8/09 William Greider: Memo to Investigators: Dig Deep

When the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission opened for business on September 17, it was a nonevent for the media. Leading newspapers brushed aside chairman Phil Angelides, the former California state treasurer, and his declaration of purpose--"uncovering the facts and providing an unbiased historical accounting of what brought our financial system and our economy to its knees." As Angelides put it, "The fuses for that cataclysm were undoubtedly lit years before. It is our job to diligently and doggedly follow those fuses to their origins."

The press has moved on. Financial crisis was last year's story. Didn't the Treasury and Federal Reserve announce they have already turned things around? Hasn't the president proposed a bunch of complicated reforms (boring!) for Congress to enact? Yes, but that is the problem. How can Washington reform the financial system when we still don't know what happened?

We may know the broad outlines, but the landscape remains littered with unanswered questions and informed suspicions about who did what to produce the breakdown. The relevant facts are still buried in the files of Wall Street firms and the regulatory agencies that utterly failed as watchdogs. The Angelides commission has the subpoena power to dig out secrets--from e-mails and private memos, and through testimony under oath--that can disclose political deal-making and ruinous financial strategies. Given the rush of events, the commission may be the public's last, best chance to get at the truth of the matter.

Congress created the ten-member commission (six Democrats, four Republicans) to identify the root causes of the financial crisis. It listed more than twenty areas for inquiry, from the collapse of individual institutions to the complex financial instruments now known as toxic assets. It is a gigantic task fraught with explosive implications for government and finance.

more...
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091026/greider

[Joe Chi Minh]

66. Michael Moore and Hannity exchange by Guardian columnist, Paul Harris:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2009/oct/11/michael-moore-catholic-capitalism