STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 8, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 4, 2009

Dow... 9,441.27 +96.66 (+1.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,018.78 +35.58 (+1.79%)
S&P 500... 1,016.40 +13.16 (+1.31%)
Gold future... 996.70 -1.00 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.34 +0.00 (+0.06%)
30-Year Bond 4.16 0.00 (-0.02%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

The "Other" Real Estate Issue - Revisited
BY BRIAN PRETTI

It was in early February of this year that I penned a discussion about the state of the commercial real estate markets. Of course at the time the Street’s eyes were collectively glued on the near free fall in residential real estate values and general activity. My suggestion at the time was that CRE (commercial real estate) was about to make a very prominent guest appearance on the economic stage as being yet another meaningful real estate related issue for the financial sector, the economy, and for those holding significant investment positions in the asset class such as institutional pension funds. You know what has happened since, but the reality is that CRE will continue to be a problem child issue for some time to come. As we’ll see in just a minute, relative to prior historical CRE reconciliatory cycles, we’re just getting started. Will this be yet another “challenge” for the banks ahead? You bet. But the miracle of the eraser the government allowed the banks to invoke sidestepping mark-to-market activity may delay the true realization of asset value declines. A lot of charts follow that together tell quite the story of deflation in values and activity, both now and we expect also yet to come in the current cycle. And why is this issue important to really the broader US economy as we look ahead? Simple - its implications for bank lending and normalized functioning of credit markets ex the massive baling wire and duct tape support of the financial sector the Fed/Treasury/Administration (none of which has been removed as of yet, or can be if asset values such as CRE continue to deteriorate) has engineered. The CRE issue will forestall a return to credit flows from the banks as they privately (no mark-to-market) continue to nurse balance sheet wounds for some time to come. Let’s get started.

Let's kick off this analysis with some data I have never shown you before. But it is certainly very timely right now. Why? Because this data is both current and market value based. We’re NEVER going to see this type of data coming from the banks as they will lie as long as they can about CRE values on their books. They have the blessing of the government, so don’t hold your breath in terms of trying to find truth coming from the financial sector. Alternatively, and very importantly, the institutional investment community still marks their real estate assets to market each quarter in terms of keeping integrity in calculating ongoing total rates of return for their funds. Thank God someone is willing to tell the truth, right? It seems there’s less and less of it around each day.

.....

(We've never seen anything like this.)

We’re currently looking at the most significant period of consecutive quarterly drops in value in what admittedly is the short history of the data (going back to 1978). Over the last four quarters (3Q 2008-2Q 2009) the index has recorded a 22.5% contraction in value. And just what does this infer about bank holdings of CRE loan paper? Thanks to the current Administration’s financial sector “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy for bank assets, we’re not going to really know any time soon. Good thing the US banks can simply move forward reporting record earnings and ignore the current inconvenient truth of declining CRE values, no? We only see some glimpse of the truth in asset values every Friday when we see that week's US bank failures. Did you catch how BB&T wrote down Colonial Bank asset values by 37% after Colonial's essential failure and melding into BB&T? The write down never happened until Colonial hit the tarmac nose first, yet asset values had vaporized long ago. And this is the "transparency" we've been promised?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

41. It's Only Worth What Someone Is Willing to Pay For It

Real Estate 101.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

14:00 Consumer Credit Jul
Briefing.com -8.5B
Consensus -4.0B
Prior -10.3B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Hugin]

6. Anything-But-Treasuries Credit Gaining After AIG Ruin (Update1) (Bloomberg)

By Liz Capo McCormick

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s biggest bond dealers are loosening their grip on U.S. government debt at a record pace, signaling a continued rally in credit markets.

Holdings of Treasuries by the 18 primary dealers of U.S. government debt that trade directly with the Federal Reserve fell to a negative $10.5 billion last month -- a so-called net short position -- from a record net long of $93.6 billion in June, according to data compiled by the central bank.

The fastest turnaround since the Fed began tracking the data in 1997 shows dealers are purchasing and financing higher- risk debt even as investors express doubt about the economic recovery. Dealers typically place bets against Treasuries to hedge corporate and mortgage bonds, and net short positions averaged $63 billion in the 10 years before the collapse of subprime home loans caused credit markets to freeze in 2007.

“It’s money going back to work again in some level of riskier assets,” said Donald Galante, the chief investment officer and senior vice president of fixed income at New York- based MF Global Ltd., the world’s largest broker of exchange- traded futures. “Panic has receded and you are in a more normal world, with dealers starting to take on a little bit more leverage. They are taking on some inventory in the corporate world and hedging with Treasuries again.”

Much more (for the wonkish) ... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJnT_G8n2iqg
__________________________________________________________________________________

I'm not sure I know what the heck they're talking about... AIG death in China? Ruin? :shrug:

[ozymandius]

8. The Fed sells money to banks. Then the banks sell money to customers.

Consider these three paragraphs:

Banks tightened standards on all types of loans last quarter, and said they expect to maintain strict criteria on lending until at least the second half of 2010, the Fed said in its quarterly Senior Loan Officer survey published on Aug. 17.

The amount of leveraged loans -- the kind private-equity firms use to finance company purchases -- has shrunk to $67.7 billion this year from $311.2 billion in 2008 and $962.9 billion in 2007, Bloomberg data show. Leveraged loans are rated below investment grade, or less than Baa3 at Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.

Net short positions reached a record $193.7 billion in July 2007, just before subprime mortgages contaminated credit markets, leading to $1.61 trillion in writedowns and losses at the world’s biggest financial institutions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

I take this to mean that the credit customer base is shrinking at a tremendous pace. Now that our own central bank is buying up U.S. Treasuries (printing press for legal counterfeit, anyone?) then we can assume that overseas banks are not too happy with the long term prospects of our government to pay its bills. Edited to add: overseas banks have their own liquidity problems. A form of protectionism is taking hold.

AIG is selling anything that it can claim singular ownership to repay the government's bailout bill.

[Hugin]

9. That was my take on the 'credit up-turn' discussion too.

A bubble TPTB are desperate to reinflate. (It must be true... It rhymes.)

Oh, I gotcha on the AIG stuff... It was in the headline, but, I saw little on it in the actual article. My next stop was going to be one of the ticker news sites for a more specific search. :hi:

[Hugin]

11. Chinatrust Financial Holdings Co. Bids $2.4 Billion for American International Group, Taiwan

Unedited headline: "Chinatrust Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. Bids $2.4 Billion for American International Group, Inc. Taiwan Unit-Reuters"

Monday, 7 Sep 2009 03:09am EDT

Reuters reported that Chinatrust Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. offered $2.4 billion for American International Group, Inc.'s Taiwan Nan Shan Life unit, outbidding rivals. Chinatrust's latest bid was above market expectations and was better than the $2 billion target the Company had expected for Nan Shan.

More AIG yard-sale news: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?symbol=AIG.N×tamp=20090907070900&rpc=66

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

[ozymandius]

12. Desperate is right.

It's like they, TPTB, will fight to the last man before admitting that Milton "Increase the Money Supply" Friedman was ever wrong. This has been the status-quo for thirty-plus years. I see little evidence that Bernanke, Geithner, Summers and their ilk know anything else.

[Hugin]

15. I guess to be more accurate, I should've said...

'Debt up-tick'.

TPTB live on Interest. To do otherwise might mean actual... Work.

[Ghost Dog]

33. Another angle here?

(I'll just post the DU link to links (and comments)):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4049268

[skoalyman]

3. morning ozzy looks to be a down day for the dollar

specially with the news that came out of china:hi:

[ozymandius]

5. There have been hints about China's attitude on the USD.

Good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut:

China is looking at diminishing returns on its investments. So I am not surprised.

[ozymandius]

4. Oil above $69 as rising stocks boost confidence

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $69 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, bouyed by rising regional stock markets as the U.S. summer driving season wound down.

Benchmark crude for October delivery was up $1.04 to $69.06 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

.....

Oil traders often look to stocks for signs of overall investor confidence. All major Asian stock indexes rose Tuesday while the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 1 percent on Friday.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 0.87 cent to $1.79 a gallon, and heating oil gained 2.23 cent to $1.74 a gallon. Natural gas dropped 3.3 cents to $2.70 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

---

As a general rule - anyone who uses the stock markets as an economic forecasting tool is a knuckle-dragging idiot.

[ozymandius]

7. OPEC set to hold supply steady, likes oil price

VIENNA (Reuters) – Oil at close to $70 means OPEC will almost certainly keep existing output cuts in place when it meets in Vienna on Wednesday, although it could seek to tighten compliance with existing targets, ministers and delegates said.

.....

OPEC has kept official output targets steady since it announced late last year a record cut of 4.2 million barrels per day from September 2008 production.

But as the oil market has recovered from a low of $32.40 in December -- its weakest in nearly five years -- to this year's peak of $75 hit in August, it has reduced compliance from a peak of around 80 percent of agreed cuts to less than 70 percent.

The lapsing discipline has contributed to an inventory build that has taken stocks to the equivalent of nearly 62 days of forward cover, according to the International Energy Agency -- around 10 days more than OPEC views as comfortable.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090908/bs_nm/us_opec_5

[Ghost Dog]

34. Oil "Contango"...

Total stores North Sea Forties oil at sea -trade

Fri Sep 4, 2009 12:25pm EDT LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - French oil company Total SA (TOTF.PA) has arranged to put up to 3 million barrels of North Sea crude oil in storage at sea to take advantage of a spread between nearby and forward prices, trade sources said on Friday.

Total has bought five consecutive 600,000-barrel cargoes of Forties crude oil loading between Sept. 13 and Sept. 19 and has fixed two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to store them at sea, the source said.

A spokeswoman for Total in Paris declined to comment.

Shipping sources said Total had fixed two VLCCs, the Maersk Noble and the B.K. Empat to load the crude oil. At least one of the ships would load from Hound Point terminal in Scotland with an option for 30-90 days of storage at a rate of about $35,000 per day, they said.

Forties crude oil for loading in the middle of September is trading at a discount of between $2.50 and $3.00 per barrel below Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 for delivery in January 2010 in what traders call a "contango".

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKL469394620090904?symbol=TOTF.PA

And also:

Total pulls staff from riot-hit Gabon

Sat Sep 5, 2009 5:49pm EDT PARIS (Reuters) - French oil group Total (TOTF.PA) has moved expatriate staff and their families from Gabon's industry hub Port Gentil to the capital Libreville because of post-election violence, the company said on Saturday.

Port Gentil has been hit by riots, looting and attacks on Total facilities and the French consulate since Ali Ben Bongo was declared the winner on Thursday of a presidential election denounced as fraudulent by opposition leaders.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUKTRE58411C20090905?symbol=TOTF.PA

Plus ça change. BTW, as regards BP's interests in Libya see here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6469345

(& see #33).

[ozymandius]

10. U.S. hiring outlook dips, better elsewhere: Manpower

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A forward-looking measure of hiring intentions dipped slightly in the United States even as it improved in many other countries, according to a quarterly survey by Manpower Inc.

The survey offers a hint that jobs in Europe and Asia may recover earlier than in the United States, but it also raises questions about whether such a recovery could be cut short without the support of U.S. consumers, Manpower said.

The global employment services company said its seasonally adjusted U.S. net employment outlook slipped to minus-3 for the fourth quarter, from minus-2 in the prior quarter. A year ago, the index stood at plus-9, according to the survey released on Tuesday.
.....

Of 13 U.S. industry sectors, employers in only one -- education and health services -- were more positive about jobs prospects than they were in the third quarter. Other sectors -- like construction, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services -- showed a deteriorating outlook.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5870WG20090908

[ozymandius]

14. Total 10 Year Job Gains: Negative 203k

From Ritholtz:

Speaking with Marketwatch’s Rex Nutting, I learned yet another incredible datapoint: Over the past decade, the U.S. private-sector has lost 203,000 jobs.

That’s right: Zero job growth for 10 years.

In the 1940s, we created 10 million jobs. In the 1990s, we added 19 million new jobs. Even during the much-maligned 1970s, we added almost 16 million jobs.

The 2000s might be zero. Some economy, huh?

more at link...

[ozymandius]

16. Nice depiction of a system in decline

-See the chart. It speaks volumes.

....

There is a strong line of reasoning that the USSR collapsed when the nomenklatura (bureaucratic elites, the most important people in a government run economy) decided to work against the state. In short, the non-financial benefits of being in the bureaucracy were in decline as attempts were made to reform the Soviet system. So, when a window of opportunity arrived (the attempt to privatize sectors of the economy to improve economic performance), they jumped at it. A trickle of privatization turned into a flood as the nomenklatura looted the state of anything/everything of value.

.....

How the mechanism that collapsed the USSR (per the above) applies to the US has yet to be seen. But, as the chart above shows us, something very, very wrong is in motion. It goes beyond Republican/Democrat, conservative/liberal, public/private, and all of the common methods of division or debate. It's systemic.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/johnrobb/2009/09/no-rising-tide.html

[Ghost Dog]

35. Personal experience relating to a new neighbor of mine:

(Allow me to avoid posting any too-personal details).

He was a manager under the Soviet system in an E. European country. When things began to change, he moved from being the IT manager (having very well reorganised the business by means of intelligent application of Western (SPSS, I believe) software) to Financial Manager. Shortly thereafter, he and colleagues organised a Management Buyout of the business which they then expanded and recently sold to a large Western multinational.

He is now a very rich man (with a large family I see he looks after very well). Has purchased half a dozen houses around here and, they say, keeps his "yacht" in Croatia. Remember: he used to be a manager "working for the people".

:shrug:

[ozymandius]

13. UPDATE: Gold's Gains Spell Trouble For Seasonal Buyers

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Gold is going great guns above the magical $1,000 a troy ounce level Tuesday, but analysts and traders say the move spells bad news for seasonal buyers and could ultimately be the market's downfall.

.....

Yet with the big gold purchasing centers of South and East Asia approaching seasonally strong demand periods on which the market is reliant, the higher prices couldn't have come at a worse time.

.....

Jewelry accounts for about 70% of gold demand, according to the World Gold Council, and India is the world's largest jewelry market by volume. When gold hit an all-time high 18 months ago, the knock-on effect on prices was swift as consumers voted with their feet.

.....

Right now, however, coin and physical investment buying remains sluggish, he said, while "the best that can be said about exchange-traded fund flows is that outflows have ceased and the modest buying is taking place - far from the surge higher this year."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090908-703458.html

[Ghost Dog]

19. China, Bernanke, and the price of gold

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: September 7th, 2009

China has issued what amounts to the “Beijing Put” on gold. You can make a lot of money, but you really can’t lose.

I happened to see quite a bit of Cheng Siwei at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a gathering of politicians and global strategists at Lake Como, including a dinner at Villa d’Este last night at which he listened very attentively as a number of American guests tore President Obama’s economic and health policy to shreds.

Mr Cheng was until recently Vice-Chairman of the Communist Party’s Standing Committee, and is now a sort of economic ambassador for China around the world — a charming man, by the way, who left Hong Kong for mainland China in 1950 at the age of 16, as young idealist eager to serve the revolution. Sixty years later, he calls himself simply “a survivior”.

What he said about US monetary policy and gold – this bit on the record – would appear to validate the long-held belief of gold bugs that China has fundamentally lost confidence in the US dollar and is going to shift to a partial gold standard through reserve accumulation.

He played down other metals such as copper, saying that they could not double as a proxy currency or store of wealth.

“Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not stimulate the market,” he said.

In other words, China is buying the dips, and will continue to do so as a systematic policy. His comment captures exactly what observation of gold price action suggests is happening. Every time it looks as if the bullion market is going to buckle, some big force steps in from the unknown.

Investors long-suspected that it was China. We later discovered that Beijing had in fact doubled its gold reserves to 1054 tonnes. Fait accompli first. Announcement long after.

/... http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100000821/china-bernanke-and-the-price-of-gold/

More on this here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6146957/China-alarmed-by-US-money-printing.html

... Mr Cheng said China had learned from the West that it is a mistake for central banks to target retail price inflation and take their eye off assets.

"This is where Greenspan went wrong from 2000 to 2004," he said. "He thought everything was alright because inflation was low, but assets absorbed the liquidity."

Mr Cheng said China had lost 20m jobs as a result of the crisis and advised the West not to over-estimate the role that his country can play in global recovery.

China's task is to switch from export dependency to internal consumption, but that requires a "change in the ideology of the Chinese people" to discourage excess saving. "This is very difficult".

Mr Cheng said the root cause of global imbalances is spending patterns in US (and UK) and China.

"The US spends tomorrow's money today," he said. "We Chinese spend today's money tomorrow. That's why we have this financial crisis."

Yet the consequences are not symmetric.

"He who goes borrowing, goes sorrowing," said Mr Cheng.

It was a quote from US founding father Benjamin Franklin.

[ozymandius]

17. Have a nice day, everyone.

Time is nigh for me to get to work. I hope you enjoy watching the Casino spin its wheels.

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

18. Asian shares rise

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares touched a one-year high on Tuesday, while gold prices hit $1,000 an ounce for the first time in six months in a sign of investor concerns about the sustainability of the global economic recovery.

Asian shares shrugged off a lack of direction from holidaying U.S. markets and most powered higher, including laggards such as the Nikkei, which has yet to recover levels it touched a year ago despite a rise of nearly 50 percent from its March lows.

European and U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher start even though financial spread betters expected main European indices to slip back with profit-taking eating into gains that took them near 11-month closing highs.

The MSCI index of Asian shares excluding Japan rose to its highest in a year, gaining 0.9 percent.

...

Many investors are worried that stock market rallies have got ahead of a global economic recovery that they fear will not create jobs and will be hard to sustain once government stimulus efforts fade.

But gains by shares in gold producers helped lift Australian stocks toward their highest close in 11 months, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index rising 1.4 percent to 4,517.4.

RESOURCE DEALS

Resources deals also gave the Australian market a boost.

State-owned China Railway Materials Commercial Corp is set to take a stake in iron ore explorer FerrAus and Chinese state-owned power producer China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Co. Ltd agreed a takeover for uranium explorer Energy Metals.

News of a $16.7 billion bid by North America's Kraft Foods for UK confectioner Cadbury was also taken as a sign of recovery after the turmoil of the past year, even though the bid was rejected.

In Taiwan, shares rose 1.2 percent to a one-year high as a smaller-than-expected fall in exports in August from a year earlier offset the surprise resignation of its prime minister, a move not expected to have big political or economic impact.

Notoriously volatile Shanghai shares opened down 0.5 percent as profit-taking set in after five days of gains but then turned higher, while the Nikkei closed up 0.7 percent after drifting between negative and positive territory.

Semiconductor-linked shares gained, with Tokyo Electron rising 2.4 percent and chip-equipment tester Advantest gaining 1.5 percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/wtUSInvestingNews/idUSTRE5860ER20090908?sp=true

... I notice that both Reuters and Bloomberg have been updating/editing/changing their international stories without notice this morning, playing down China/Gold/Dollar factors...

[DemReadingDU]

20. Checkout Demeter's weekend/holiday thread

Many more articles to look thru that may be of interest...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x477725

[Ghost Dog]

21. Does the world have the courage to deal with its debts?

Deflation is spreading from the core of the global system to the most unexpected regions of the world. It has even reached Latin America. Prices are sliding in Peru, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador, to the consternation of everybody.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 7:34PM BST 06 Sep 2009

Enough of the world has already fallen so far into pre-deflation conditions that any misjudgment by the big central banks from now risks setting off a chain-reaction that may prove very hard to stop.

CPI inflation has dropped to –2.2pc in Japan (a modern record), -2.1pc in the US, -1.8pc in China, -1.4pc in Spain, -0.7pc in France, and -0.6pc in Germany.

This was not anticipated by the authorities anywhere, so we should be wary of their assurances now that we face nothing more than a brief dip in prices before rising energy costs bring inflation back into familiar and safe territory. No doubt prices will rebound as the "base effect" of oil prices kicks in. But by how much; for how long?

The sum of economists in the world (outside Japan) familiar with the cultural and psychological dynamics of deflation can fit into one London bus, and most are historians of the 1930s.

If PIMCO guru Bill Gross and hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones are right in fearing that the US economy will tip back into a "W-shaped" recession as the sugar rush of fiscal stimulus fades, we may wake up to find that we have baked deep deflation into the pie for 2010 and 2011. The G20's talk of "exit strategies" and rate rises will seem surreal.

White House aides are already mulling another blast of spending. It won't fly. We have hit the political limits of such extravagance almost everywhere. The fiscal crutches of recovery are going to be knocked away, with outright tightening in a slew of states nearing the danger point of debt-compound spirals. This will occur in a world where excess capacity is already at post-War highs. It reeks of deflation.

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6146859/Does-the-world-have-the-courage-to-deal-with-its-debts.html

[Demeter]

42. Courage is For Little People

The PTB have BlackWater.

[Ghost Dog]

50. .

(sorry - there were more graphic images in the Spanish press at the time...)

[UpInArms]

22. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 77.227 Change -0.797 (-1.03%)

US Dollar: Will a Recovery in Liquidity Usher in a Breakout?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Will_a_Recovery_1252114755880.html

Liquidity has been the bane of currency traders’ existence this past week; but a gradual return to normalcy may finally allow the dollar and general risk appetite to find its bearings once again. Even a perfunctory glance at a EURUSD chart conveys exaggerated congestion. This pair – and indeed all of the majors – has been relegated to a controlled range or gradual channel for the better part of three months. Now, passing through the extended Labor Day weekend holiday in the US, we are encountering the worst of the unusual market conditions. It wasn’t by chance that the dollar tumbled to test its lows through this past Friday’s close. At critical levels, the speculative ranks could either attempt a break against the dollar while most of the American market is offline or wait for the liquidity pool to deepen and instead work to reconcile the divergent outlook between fundamentals and risk appetite.

The immediate concern heading into the new week is Monday’s holiday. While US markets will be offline, Asian and European traders can act upon any potential breakouts as there is time (though not necessarily momentum) to forge significant follow through. This leads us to consider what the primary driver for the dollar is. Did this past week’s data tip the fundamental scales and now we are just waiting for enough market depth to sustain a rally? Are interest rate expectations shifting against the FOMC pursuing interest rate hikes in the opening months of 2010? Have risk trends once again pegged the dollar as a key liquidity currency? In such a complex market, you can be sure that all of these themes are factoring in; but it is likely the whims of speculators and their appetite for risk that is truly at the helm.

Where will the fuel for a surge in optimism or the spark to a spate of panic come from? Generally, it can come from anywhere as long as the market is susceptible enough – and sentiment certainly seems primed for a dramatic shift. The comments coming from Finance Minister and other policy officials ahead of the G-20 meeting in London tomorrow has been largely supportive of keeping stimulus in place; but being prepared with an exit strategy when the right conditions were met. This is very likely to be the consensus tomorrow – and it would send the market a somewhat bearish outlook as it would reinforce the notion that the global recovery will be gradual. What’s more, with the full summit scheduled for the 24th 25th in Philadelphia, this pre-game meeting will be more for setting out framework.

Since investor sentiment in its simplest form is the balance of risk and reward, interest rate decisions from key policy bodies next week could in turn affect the dollar as a safe haven. The BoE is scheduled to announce rates on Thursday; but it is the commentary and outlook for growth as well as the size of the asset purchasing program that is truly remarkable. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the RBNZ’s deliberation. As a representative of what high yields global investors can reasonably expect, this benchmark will be used to set expectations for growth. The disparity between dim growth potential and the capital market’s steady rally over the past six months has only grown with time. It is already clear that the recovery will be slow; so it is not likely that market optimism can hold up long enough for data to catch up. But, as John Maynard Keynes said, “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”



...more...

China's forex reserves grew 14,000 times in 60 years

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90778/90857/90859/6751299.html

According to a report released by National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) on September 7, the country's forex reserves have grown almost 14,000 times in 60 years, becoming the largest in the world.

The NBS said that in 1952, China's forex reserves totaled only 139 million USD. By 1978, the figure had risen to 167 million USD.

China's forex reserves picked up its upward trend with the progress of the reform and opening up, surpassed 10 billion USD in 1990 and exceeded 100 billion USD in 1996. By 2006, the country's forex reserves had increased to 1.06 trillion USD, exceeding those of Japan.

China's foreign exchange reserves hit a record 1.95 trillion USD at the end of 2008, the largest in the world and far exceeding those of other countries.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

30. Buoyant metals help fuel European share rally

Tue Sep 8, 2009 7:24am EDT PARIS, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Europe's leading share index was up 0.5 percent at midday on Tuesday, rising for the third consecutive session and flirting with 11-month highs, with miners shining as gold hurdled the $1,000 mark.

Propelled by technical momentum and a drop in the dollar, spot gold XAU= vaulted the $1,000 per ounce psychological barrier on Tuesday, just shy of last year's record high of $1,030.80, while prices of other metals such as copper MCU3 and nickel MNI3 also surged.

At 1108 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares was up 0.5 percent at 980.30 points, not far from an 11-month high of 986.59 points touched in late August.

Miners were the top gainers, with Rio Tinto (RIO.L) up 3.1 percent, Anglo American (AAL.L) up 2.9 percent and Xstrata (XTA.L) up 2.6 percent.

"The break-out in gold was really sparked by weakness in the dollar. There is no other explanation. There is a lot of arbitrage between the two," said Philippe Waechter, head of economic research at Natixis Asset Management.

The dollar .DXY sank to its lowest level in nearly a year against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, with traders citing talk of reserve diversification into gold undermining the U.S. currency while boosting the precious metal.

"There are recurring rumours that the Chinese Central Bank could convert part of their reserves into gold," Natixis AM's Waechter said.

"The fact is the portion of their reserves currently in gold is relatively small compared with other central banks, so there is a lot of speculation that they might have to adjust these levels."

Around Europe, UK's FTSE 100 index .FTSE was up 0.5 percent, Germany's DAX index .GDAXI up 0.5 percent, and France's CAC 40 .FCHI up 0.3 percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL873427920090908?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

31. CANADA STOCKS-Toronto index may rise as commodities rally

Tue Sep 8, 2009 8:43am EDT TORONTO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Toronto's main stock market index could bounce at the open on Tuesday as robust oil and bullion prices lift the resource-laden index, and firm global equities keep investors' risk appetite on the rise.

Emerging markets hit a new year high on Tuesday and world stocks headed towards a new 2009 peak. U.S. stock index futures pointed to a higher open. <.N1>

On Friday, the S&P/TSX composite index .GSPTSE rose 95.98 points, or 0.88 percent, to close at 11,017.47, the first time above 11,000 since early August.

Here is some news that could affect the market:

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN0851778720090908?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

32. Euro extends gains vs dollar, trades above $1.45

Tue Sep 8, 2009 9:03am EDT

Wall Street set to rise on commodities, M&A
Emerging stocks at pre-Lehman high
Oil rises above $69 as gold jumps
More Business & Investing News...
Featured Broker sponsored link

NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The euro extended gains versus the dollar on Tuesday amid a rise in global stocks and commodities.

The euro rose as high as $1.4505 EUR=, its highest since December, according to Reuters data.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN088104320090908?rpc=44

[UpInArms]

23. China Wal-Mart employees detained in shopper's death

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5871VO20090908?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

BEIJING (Reuters) - Two Wal-Mart China employees were detained in southern China following the death of a customer, whom employees followed and pushed to the ground after suspecting her of shoplifting, according to a police website.

Yu Xiaochun died last Wednesday, three days after she was injured in a dispute with five Wal-Mart workers after shopping in a Wal-Mart store, the official website for the Jingdezhen city police from southern Jiangxi province said. (www.jdz110.com)

Wal-Mart confirmed that an "incident" occurred near their Jingdezhen store between two security employees and a 37-year old female "visitor," who later died.

"The incident and cause of death is the subject of an investigation," said Wal-Mart in a statement.

"The company is fully cooperating with the relevant authorities and will release further details as it is appropriate," said the retailing giant.

Five store employees followed Yu and stopped her in the street on suspicion that she had stolen goods while shopping at the Wal-Mart store, the police said in the statement.

...more...

[Robbien]

36. Reuters does a horrible job of telling that story

The story from Zone Europa

At around 7pm on August 30, 37-year-old Yu Xiaochun went to make purchases at the Wal-Mart supermarket in Jingdezhen Plaza. When she walked out of the supermarket, she was followed by four male and one female Wal-Mart employees. They accosted her outside. A male employee demanded that she show her receipt to them, so she showed it to him. Since they were not in uniform, she began to suspect that they may not be employees of Wal-Mart and therefore she took her receipt back. A dispute occurred which led to a physical altercation in which the five assaulted her.According to information, the eyewitnesses at the scene did not intervene beyond advising the five to stop.

When Yu Xiaochun's relatives found out and rushed to the scene, she already was lying on the ground and coughing out blood. The relatives called the police even as they got down on their knees to implore the five employees to stop hitting her and rendering medical help instead. The five ignored the pleas of the family and refused to help. When the police showed up, the five fled scene. The relatives put Yu Xiaochun into the police car which sped to the hospital. At the hospital, the doctors told the family that Yu was in critical condition. She passed away on September 2. The police have apprehended the five Wal-Mart employees, two of whom have already been placed under criminal detention.

It has been more than one week since the incident took place. Wal-Mart has given no explanation to the family of Yu Xiaochun. Her husband Chen Baolin is extremely angry over this. The elder brother of Yu Xiaochun pointed out that when the family met with the police to receive an update, nobody from Wal-Mart bothered to show up. The person in charge of this Wal-Mart store has made no comment on the matter on the grounds that he needs directions from the Shenzhen (China) and USA headquarters.

The failure so far of Wal-Mart to make a public statement on the case has infuriated the citizens of Jingdezhen. Citizens believe that as a top 500 corporation in the world and an international brand trusted by people, Wal-Mart should be able to perform better in customer service. Supermarket employees should not be assaulting a customer, much less beating her to death.

http://www.zonaeuropa.com/20090907_1.htm

See, almost a different story altogether than the one being told by Reuters.

[Ghost Dog]

40. China people feeling increasingly frustrated/angry?

As a one-time long-ago (allegedly) shoplifter (and squatter, out of necessity) in the mean-streets centre (albeit, Chelsea) of London, I can visualise that scene.

We understood: once you're outside the shop's door (or inside your own squat's door), different laws apply.

Thanks for that, Robbien.

Is Thomson-Reuters beginning to lose what was once the "Reuters Reputation"???

[Robbien]

56. I also wondered about the cause of the viciousness of the attack

Also wondered why these supposed security guards were walking around without uniforms. Walmart is pretty strict about wearing the Walmart vest.

Could be the high unemployment in China (about 20mil unemployed) is causing some stress. Or it could be because of this:

http://www.nctimes.com/news/world/article_13089e1d-a045-5d81-aa96-66ba198fb372.html

GUANGZHOU, China ---- A Chinese journalist was checking out a tip that police had discovered a woman's body this week when he was stopped by private security guards who beat him so badly he was hospitalized.

His assailants have since been fired, but the incident highlighted a widespread problem in China: undisciplined, poorly trained guards who are little more than thugs and often resort to violence. Many are temporary workers from organized crime groups, or "black societies" in the local slang, that operate throughout the country.

[UpInArms]

24. Swiss topple U.S. as most competitive economy: WEF

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE58718620090908?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

GENEVA (Reuters) - Switzerland knocked the United States off the position as the world's most competitive economy as the crash of the U.S. banking system left it more exposed to some long-standing weaknesses, a report said on Tuesday.

The World Economic Forum's global competitiveness report 2009/2010 showed economies with a large focus on financial services such as the U.S., Britain or Iceland were the losers of the crisis.

The U.S. as the world's largest economy lost last year's strong lead, slipping to number two for the first time since the introduction of the index in its current form in 2004.

"We have been expecting for some time that it may lose its top-position. There are a number of imbalances that have been building up," said Jennifer Blanke, Head of the WEF's Global Competitiveness Network.

<snip>

Trust in Swiss banks also declined. But in the assessment of banks' soundness, the Alpine country still ranked 44th. U.S. banks fell to 108 -- right behind Tanzania -- and British banks to 126 in the ranking, now topped by Canada's banks.

...more...

[Demeter]

62. I'd Like to See Which Is the Most Cooperative Economy

I think that might be the best for all parties.

[Festivito]

25. Debt: 09/03/2009 11,787,062,206,713.50 (DOWN 10,481,494,574.88) (Both down 5.)

(Debt down five billion, FICA side down five billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,476,060,830,240.66 + 4,311,001,376,472.84
DOWN 5,471,580,596.27 + DOWN 5,009,913,978.61

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,349,301 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,350.7.
A family of three owes $115,052.11. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,022,350,527.99.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,617,135,404.79.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,468,195,553.03.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 156 reports in 226 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.39B$ per report, 5.13B$/day so far.
There were 231 reports in 338 days of FY2009 averaging 7.63B$ per report, 5.21B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,235 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/03/2009 11,787,062,206,713.50 BHO (UP 1,160,185,157,800.42 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,762,337,309,801.10 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,160,185,157,800.42 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --

145,346,588,616.19 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4045478&mesg_id=4045531

[Festivito]

59. Debt: 09/04/2009 11,785,028,226,957.00 (DOWN 2,033,979,756.50) (Debt up 2/3B$.)

(Debt up about two-thirds billion, FICA side down two billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,476,061,494,367.04 + 4,308,966,732,589.96
UP 664,126.38 + DOWN 2,034,643,882.88

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,357,941 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,343.01.
A family of three owes $115,029.03. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,451,475,519.36.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,179,464,564.84.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,044,643,127.26.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 157 reports in 227 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.10B$/day so far.
There were 232 reports in 339 days of FY2009 averaging 7.59B$ per report, 5.19B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,234 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/04/2009 11,785,028,226,957.00 BHO (UP 1,158,151,178,043.92 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,760,303,330,044.60 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,158,151,178,043.92 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********
08/19/2009 +000,703,521,737.77 ------------********
08/20/2009 +001,088,553,104.23 ------------*********
08/21/2009 +000,333,547,281.04 ------------********
08/24/2009 +000,472,040,908.69 ------------******** Mon
08/25/2009 +000,287,748,587.67 ------------********
08/26/2009 -000,466,043,865.86 ---
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****

141,250,932,918.58 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4049656&mesg_id=4049723

[UpInArms]

26. "Capitalism is evil," says new Michael Moore film

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5850F320090906?sp=true

VENICE (Reuters) - Capitalism is evil. That is the conclusion U.S. documentary maker Michael Moore comes to in his latest movie "Capitalism: A Love Story," which premieres at the Venice film festival Sunday.

Blending his trademark humor with tragic individual stories, archive footage and publicity stunts, the 55-year-old launches an all out attack on the capitalist system, arguing that it benefits the rich and condemns millions to poverty.

"Capitalism is an evil, and you cannot regulate evil," the two-hour movie concludes.

"You have to eliminate it and replace it with something that is good for all people and that something is democracy."

The bad guys in Moore's mind are big banks and hedge funds which "gambled" investors' money in complex derivatives that few, if any, really understood and which belonged in the casino.

Meanwhile, large companies have been prepared to lay off thousands of staff despite boasting record profits.

The filmmaker also sees an uncomfortably close relationship between banks, politicians and U.S. Treasury officials, meaning that regulation has been changed to favor the few on Wall Street rather than the many on Main Street.

He says that by encouraging Americans to borrow against the value of their homes, businesses created the conditions that led to the crisis, and with it homelessness and unemployment.

...more...

[Demeter]

43. I Wish He Wouldn't Call That Capitalism--It's Looting, Theft and Fraud

[Joe Chi Minh]

61. When profit is everything, how could it be otherwise? There is no room for morality.

People are no more than units of production, hosts for the cancer, the tumours to feed on, and discard, when short-term profit so require.

Shareholders, themselves are not the tumours, but they are used as the all-purpose excuse for the greed, untrammeled by any practical or moral restraint, remorselesly pursued by the CEOs and directors.

The Law of the Jungle, but without the intuitive code of honour and decency shown by the dumb beasts. We are either higher than the animals or lower.

[UpInArms]

66. Shareholders ~ ah the ubiquitous shareholder

the one that purchases a stock for set price and then expects that "stock" to perform

???

tricks?

make profits?

duplicate, triplicate, replicate?

Is it an investment if the buyer sells the stock within minutes of the buy?

within days? within weeks?

there seems only to be the churn

will milk make butter?

will the loss beat the gain or visa versa (depends on whether it's a "short" or a "long"

there are no beasts and only when the dirt is "rich" will the seed perform

[UpInArms]

27. Exclusive: Fuld says being "dumped on" for Lehman failure

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5864CH20090908?sp=true

NEW YORK/KETCHUM, Idaho (Reuters) - "You don't have a gun; that's good."

That was how Richard Fuld greeted a Reuters reporter who had tracked him down to his country house in a bucolic setting beside a river and amid tree-covered slopes in Ketchum, Idaho last Friday.

The man vilified for the collapse of Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ.PK) almost a year ago, a failure that triggered the global economic crisis, seemed burdened but not crushed by the pressure of the upcoming anniversary.

Standing on his gravelly driveway wearing a black fleece vest, dark gray shorts and sandals, Fuld indicated he was torn about speaking out in his own defense, partly because of ongoing litigation but also because he felt the world was not ready to listen.

"You know what? The anniversary's coming up," he said. "I've been pummeled, I've been dumped on, and it's all going to happen again. I can handle it. You know what, let them line up."

Fuld again emphasized his concern about what will be said and written about him in the days leading up to the September 15 anniversary of the Lehman collapse but also stressed his ability to see it through.

"They're looking for someone to dump on right now, and that's me," Fuld lamented and later added: "You know what they say? 'This too shall pass.'"

Fuld, 63, took Lehman's reins in 1994 when it was troubled and rebuilt it into the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank, a Wall Street powerhouse whose massively profitable mortgage banking machine inspired rivals' envy. Even Goldman Sachs (GS.N) was nervous.

...much more...

[UpInArms]

28. Prologue: Lehman Brothers Boss (Fuld) Defends $484 Million in Salary, Bonus

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5965360&page=1

In the first Congressional hearing into the financial crisis, the former CEO of the bankrupt Lehman Brothers, Richard Fuld, became the poster boy for Wall Street greed today as he defended the $484 million he received in salary, bonuses and stock options since 2000.

"Is that fair?" asked committee chairman Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) who pointed out Fuld owns a mansion in Greenwich, Connecticut, an ocean front estate on Jupiter Island, Florida, a ski chalet in Idaho and a Manhattan apartment.

"If you haven't discovered your role, you're the villain today," said Rep. John Mica (R-FL).

Fuld said given the collapse of Lehman Brothers and its now worthless stock, his actual holdings were closer to $350 million.

"That's still a lot of money," he told the hearing.

Fuld said he took "full responsibility" for the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and "felt horrible" about it.

But Fuld said he has yet to understand why the federal government helped to bail out the AIG insurance company and other investment banking firms, but did not do so a few days earlier to save Lehman Brothers.

<snip>

Waxman cited an e-mail exchange among top Lehman executives. After someone sent an e-mail suggesting that Lehman's top management give up their bonuses, both Fuld and George H. Walker, a member of Lehman's executive committee and a cousin of President Bush, sent e-mails disagreeing with the suggestion.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

38. Does Fuld feel he needs to carry a gun

at home?

[Demeter]

44. He IS in Idaho

When you're surrounded by gun-loving anarchist White Supremacists, it's probably better to be openly armed, as a deterrent.

[Ghost Dog]

52. You mean "Libertarian", don't you?

[UpInArms]

29. U.S. hiring outlook dips, better elsewhere: Manpower

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5870WG20090908?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A forward-looking measure of hiring intentions dipped slightly in the United States even as it improved in many other countries, according to a quarterly survey by Manpower Inc.

The survey offers a hint that jobs in Europe and Asia may recover earlier than in the United States, but it also raises questions about whether such a recovery could be cut short without the support of U.S. consumers, Manpower said.

The global employment services company said its seasonally adjusted U.S. net employment outlook slipped to minus-3 for the fourth quarter, from minus-2 in the prior quarter. A year ago, the index stood at plus-9, according to the survey released on Tuesday.

The index, based on interviews with 28,000 U.S. employers, measures the difference between those who plan to add to their workforce and those who expect to cut staff.

Of 13 U.S. industry sectors, employers in only one -- education and health services -- were more positive about jobs prospects than they were in the third quarter. Other sectors -- like construction, leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services -- showed a deteriorating outlook.

<snip>

Prospects improved in several Latin American countries, were stronger or stable in much of Asia and Western Europe, but weaker in Eastern European countries.

In Mexico, as in the United States, hiring plans are the weakest in the survey's history. Optimism rose in Canada, reflecting better prospects in construction, finance and real estate.

...more...

[Robbien]

37. The Accounting Rule Formerly Known As FAS 157 (Mark to Market gets a new name)

A thorn by any other name still draws blood.

The accounting rule known as FAS 157 - which has caused more than its fair share of consternation at private equity firms - has a new name: Topic 820.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board is renaming the rule as it proposes additional changes to it, after what feels like an eternity of tweaks already.

Topic 820 requires companies to mark their assets to market every quarter, rather than allowing them to be held at cost, as used to be the case. It defines three levels of assets, with Level 1 being the easiest to value and Level 3 being the hardest.

Private equity and venture capital firms, whose companies don’t trade on public markets, are most concerned with Level 3, and it’s this level that the changes would address. Specifically, FASB wants firms valuing assets using Level 3 inputs to disclose how their valuations would increase or decrease if they changed one or more of the inputs to a “reasonably possible” alternative.

In a press release, FASB said that it proposed the changes because users of financial statements requested more information about fair value measurements for Level 3 assets due to their greater degree of uncertainty and subjectivity.

The PE industry has had a lot of trouble adjusting to the rule (see one of our previous articles, here), and early indications are that this set of changes could make things even harder, opening valuations up to questions from both auditors and limited partners.

“If you look at firms that use best practices, they approach valuations based on multiple methods, such as a transaction, possible IPO or a recapitalization with another private equity sponsor,” said David Larsen, managing director at financial advisory and investment banking services firm Duff & Phelps Corp. “They will look at it from multiple perspectives to come up with a point estimate. They’ve already incorporated reasonable alternatives. The question now is, do they have to disclose those alternatives and open themselves up to second guessing?”

For example, say a private equity firm came up with a valuation of $100 million for a portfolio company, but under other possible circumstances the valuation could range from $50 millon at the low end to $150 million at the high end.

“It opens a Pandora’s box of questions,” said Larsen. “The auditor could say, ‘Well, why didn’t you pick $50 million?” and the LP could start asking, ‘Why didn’t you pick $75 million or $150 million?’”

http://blogs.wsj.com/privateequity/2009/09/04/the-accounting-rule-formerly-known-as-fas-157/

[Ghost Dog]

39. No plan B if Ireland rejects EU treaty: Spain

VIENNA — Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos said here Monday his country, which next takes over the European Union presidency, has no back-up plan if Irish voters again reject the Lisbon Treaty. "We do not have a plan B, it would be bad to already speak of a plan B," Moratinos told a joint press conference after meeting with his Austrian counterpart Michael Spindelegger.

"We hope the Irish people will rule in favour of the treaty," Moratinos added ahead of the Irish referendum on the bloc's reform treaty to be held October 2.

The Spanish minister was in Vienna to present Madrid's plans for its six-month EU presidency, which begins on January 1.

...

Moratinos also told journalists that he hoped Croatia would be able to complete negotiations to enter the EU under Spain's presidency.

Talks have been stalled since December over a long-standing border dispute with Slovenia.

Finding a solution to the conflict in the Middle East will also be among the Spanish presidency's main priorities, as well as boosting EU ties with the United States, Latin America and the Balkans, Moratinos said.

Disagreements among the bloc's members over Kosovo's independence, which Madrid has not recognised, will not pose any problems, he added.

"We respect different points of view," said Moratinos.

"We all want to promote peace and stability by putting forth a European perspective for Balkan countries," he added.

/... http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gcQWSYmwtL12lcMrpNY09CtQ0B0Q

I predict that the Irish will again reject this treaty. The treaty's economic details (too Chicago-school) will have to be re-negotiated. However long it takes, in order to arrive at the right Treaty. And I'm pro-EU. That's just my personal opinion, and I may be wrong. None of the rest of us here in the EU, for some (obvious) reason even have the right to vote on this very fundamental issue.

[Ghost Dog]

46. (Any comments maybe better here: )

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4049940

[Demeter]

45. If Anybody Has Some Good Karma to Spare, I Would Appreciate

sending some my way. Mercury is retrograde and the Kid is so sick she can't keep her medications down, so she's off the rails, too. Of course, she isn't cooperating at all, either.

[AnneD]

47. Mars in retrograde.....

and a full moon to boot-never a good sign. When I worked at a Nursing Home-I knew things would be wacko. I think that is why Obama is having such problems with nut jobs at the moment.

[Ghost Dog]

53. BTW, speaking of nut-jobs, I'm not sure I can easily disagree with the mathematics

of this, I confess: http://www.binaryresearchinstitute.org/bri/research/introduction/theory.shtml

[lovuian]

55. Yes the nut jobs have mathematics on their side

I made a video concerning the Pioneer Anomaly
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGeijFsXnZk

my conclusion is the same possibility as your study

we are in a Binary System

Legends of the Ancients talked about Nibiru or Planet X
looks like mathematically it makes sense

[Ghost Dog]

58. ... Coming from you, lovuian, doubly worth paying attention to...

(None of which contradicts Man's extra contributions to climate change, of course).

[Ghost Dog]

48. Yes. The cat here says so too.

...







Think more than twice about (rejected) medications, and go for what is natural?

[AnneD]

54. I am adept at getting animals to take meds...

esp cats. Bundle them tightly in a sheet (no jokes Dr Phool) like a papoose so that just the head is exposed and hold them close. The sheet and holding them close protects you. Once you secure them then give meds. If a pill put at the back of throat with index finger. The further back you can get the better. The cats are so busy trying to get it out that it works it's way further down the throat that they don't bite your finger. If liquid, a syringe or eye dropper aimed at the back of throat/tongue will help. I hold them in the crook of my arm and can immobilize their little heads better that way.

Dogs are easy. Just hide the pill in the center of a treat for them-balled up raw hamburger or some peanut butter and breadcrumbs (make it small enough for them to scarf down in one gulp.

For people I use mashed up bananas, sometimes mixed with peanut butter. Banana slickens the throat and peanut butter hides the taste. Keep the pills whole if you can because opened and crushed pills can taste nasty (and some you can't crush any way).

[Hugin]

49. I'll send all I can.

:)

[TheWatcher]

51. I always have Good Karma for you, Dear Demeter.

Peace Be to you, Friend. :)

:hug:

[ozymandius]

60. Oh. My dear.

My thoughts of great concern resonate your way, Demeter. I hope you and your child find respite. And soon.

[Robbien]

57. Bankruptcy judge dissolves labor contract with city

In what may be the first action of its kind, a federal bankruptcy judge dissolved a City of Vallejo labor contract this week.

But the overturning of a public employee labor contract, opposed by labor unions and CalPERS (a top creditor owed $84 million), comes after a long and expensive bankruptcy process.

The City of Vallejo’s legal costs since declaring bankruptcy in May of last year, a widely watched move prompting a labor-backed legislative attempt to control local government bankruptcies, have reportedly reached $5 million.

Overturning the contract of the electrical workers union, a lone holdout after three other unions reached an agreement, saves the city an estimated $860,000 in salary increases during the final two years of the contract.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Michael McManus in Sacramento said in a landmark ruling last March that labor contracts can be dissolved in a municipal bankruptcy, if the standards for dissolving contracts in corporate bankruptcies are met.

http://calpensions.com/2009/09/04/bankruptcy-judge-dissolves-labor-contract-a-first/


A very bad sign.

[DemReadingDU]

63. very bad

:(

[AnneD]

65. This sets a nasty precedents.....

I think this should be taken higher up, but then knowing how the court is stacked...that may not be a good idea either.

[Dr.Phool]

64. Good morning friends!

I know it's not morning yet. I just got back from my dads, in SC, and figured I'd check in.

See ya in the morning, after the Fudd goes to the park. He hasn't been there for a week, and he is pissed!