New job numbers dog Bush campaign

[Judi Lynn]

New job numbers dog Bush campaign

Small gain disappoints, but White House says policies are working


11:03 PM CST on Friday, March 5, 2004


By VIKAS BAJAJ / The Dallas Morning News




President Bush's re-election campaign is in a race against time, and he lost a critical month on Friday, economic experts said.

The presidential election could well be determined by how many jobs the economy adds, and on that score, February's numbers dealt a blow to Mr. Bush, economists said.

American payrolls grew by just 21,000 jobs last month, far less than the 125,000 to 145,000 analysts were expecting and hoping for. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 5.6 percent with 8.1 million people out of work. But 392,000 people dropped out of the labor market, many of them presumed to have lost hope of finding work.

"There is no way to sugarcoat this one," said Ross DeVol, a director at the Milken Institute in California. "This is extremely disappointing. I think it took everyone by surprise."
(snip/...)

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/030604dnbuspoleconomy.171b2.html
(Free registration required)

[UpInArms]

1. the only sector that gained jobs

was government -

There were no private sector gains in February. If you take the fact that December's numbers were reduced 8,000 and January's numbers were reduced 13,000 - there were actually no jobs gained in February at all.

So when do we see the tents of Bushville springing up around the country?

[Rebellious Republican]

2. I must be confused, I thought that one of the GOP's platforms was

to reduce the size of Government not increase! At least thats what all the wingnuts that I know tell me. Good catch UpInArms!

[UpInArms]

11. here's the USA Today's article -

even they couldn't spin the numbers :evilgrin:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2004-03-05-jobs_x.htm

In its report, the Labor Department said private-sector employment was unchanged in February, while the government added 21,000 workers.

The report also showed job creation in December and January was weaker than previously thought, adding to the weak tone of the report. The department revised lower its count of jobs gains in January to 97,000 from 112,000 and for December to just 8,000 from 16,000.

Employers are still very, very cautious about adding bodies,'' said a disappointed Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock. ''If you are out there looking for a job, this is bad news,'' he said.

Nevertheless, the overall seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate stayed at 5.6% in February as thousands of prospective workers gave up looking for a job. About 392,000 people left the civilian workforce in February from January.

Economists at top Wall Street firms had forecast a February payrolls gain of 125,000 jobs.

Over the last three months, employment has risen an average of just 42,000 a month, down from the 79,000 average of the prior three months and far short of the 150,000 or so jobs needed each month just to keep pace with growth in the labor force.

...more...

[baldguy]

3. Ain't no such thing as a "jobless recovery"

5.6% is low. Millions of people have stopped looking for work. Millions more can't find work in their field, so have settled for something less.

We can't have a real recovery without good, middle-class union jobs. Can't have a recovery without tax breaks and incentives for small and medium-sized businesses - they employ 80% of the work force.

[tomlu8]

6. Jobless Recovery?

There are hundreds of thousands of new jobs being created in the economic recovery.
They're just not being created in America.
India, China, and Malaysia are enjoying a jobs boom thanks to outsourcing.

[Ilsa]

8. And the "something less" means part-time,

or other jobs with no benefits at a small percentage of what they were making before.

The wingnuts don't get it: anyone with a job behind a desk using a computer and/or telephone is at risk, not just the manufacturing sector.

[teryang]

4. Doesn't suprise anyone but the propagandists

To dignify his regime by calling their non-stop looting a policy demeans language.

They have one "policy"- conversion of the wealth of the people to their own private accounts. Wealth to the corporate elites-costs and risks to the people.

[FreakinDJ]

5. The economy will be the deciding factor in the elections

Majority of Americans vote with their wallet

The Dems need to concentrate on Bush's corrupt economics. The Halberton insider contracts and the out of control debt

[goclark]

22. Job Loss Can't Improve

I was no wiz in Economics but I do know this....

If I didn't have a job for 1 year and I got one tomorrow, I would still be in big trouble. I would not be able to make an instant recovery.

I would still be behind and need "reparations" to get back on my feet...
Ex: Pay back all my relatives that helped me,pay back all my loans,
cry that my child would not be able to go to college until much later because I couldn't afford tuition without my job
The list could go on and on

IMO Kerry the Democrats need to present it like this:

JOB situation is a mess in March 2004. Even if some miracle happened and the Bushies donated their oil billions to all those that lost jobs,our people have not and will not recover in the purest sense of the word. They have lost productive years that will never be reimbursed.

So the "numbers" from now until November do not give a clear picture for families that have been without work.

The only real recovery that would be perfect for our country is for Spurious George To Get Kicked Out Of His Job ASAP.



:kick:

[DS1]

7. If you apply a favorite Repuke spin to this, by delivering 10%

of the ~proposed~ job growth, Bush's tax policy has eliminated 90% of the new jobs.

[Ilsa]

9. Stephanopoulis reported yesterday that another HUGE

indicator, Consumer Confidence, was statistically important to getting re-elected, and that index is way, way down for Curious George.

[snippy]

10. Spurious George? Bush is too arrogant and ignorant to be curious.

[goclark]

21. Loved Spurious George

Perfect Name for this jerk!

[JusticeForAll]

12. Took everyone by surprise?

"There is no way to sugarcoat this one," said Ross DeVol, a director at the Milken Institute in California. "This is extremely disappointing. I think it took everyone by surprise."

One more brainwashed tow-the-line idiot with his head up his ass!

I just did a google search using "Fourth Quarter happily ever after" and found this shit:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Taxes/wm218.cfm

The job growth chart is a riot! As is the additional Disposable income chart

A Wall Street Journal article quotes Glen Hubbard, chief architect of the Bush administration's tax cut package, saying, “'Lowering the capital tax means that investors receive a much-larger after-tax return on investments.' ... That will urge them to invest more, pushing down the cost of capital so that businesses will invest more – and we’ll all live happily ever after. 'A dividend tax cut is a way to raise wages.'"

OK so we are generating growth because those out of work people are getting tax breaks on their dividends! Yay! We do live happily ever after! Oh wait maybe it's the Malaysians who are able to get tax breaks on their US bought dividends? AAAAIIIEEEEEE!

Surprise? bu*shit.

[Yavin4]

13. Don't Forget About The Surging Consumer Debt

No jobs + Surging Consumer debt = Massive Defaults, which means an economic collapse. People are running up debts and there aren't any jobs around to pay for these debts.

[rfkrocks]

14. Well

I am shocked that every single economist I listened to on NPr onto down to CNBC seems puzzled at this problem. Isn't the fact that oil is rising the worst problem. Everything is related to it in our economy-trucks drive our food and products-plastics-we drive to work-we heat with it-our manufacturing plants use (including McDonald's)I don't understand the inflation numbers but there seems to be a huge increase this past year for my family. If gas is rising why would you hire employees-don't you have to manage that increase spending in hiring?

[UpInArms]

16. the January PPI report

(the Producers Price Index) which shows the cost of production in every aspect - has been delayed again from being released.

They (the Bureau of Labor) says that they are "converting" this information into a "new" format and that now both the January and February reports are being delayed indefinitely.

It is my belief that these numbers would have shown (in their original format) the depth of the inflationary issues, but that they will now be "massaged" to show nothing.

We, the consumers, will feel enormous pain while our government agencies are being corrupted into nothing but dust and ashes.

[rfkrocks]

19. Wow and thanks for the info

Everyday I look at the posts here and real economic data I get a shiver-can a great fall(a la 1929) occur here? or is that scenario too spread out with the global economy?

[davekriss]

24. Complex

I think like everything else the causes of the job situation are complex. Oil being a factor. But one of the reasons for high oil prices is not so much supply-and-demand as a worldwide decline in faith in the U.S. economy.

We just fought a war with Iraq to example to the rest of the world that the USG will not tolerate a move by an oil-producing nation out of the USD and into it's sole competitor for currency-hegemony, the Euro. So OPEC oil is still priced in USD. (The war drums started to beat a month after Iraq announced that it would begin trading its oil in Euros.) But, as the USD deflates in value vis-a-vis the other world currencies, OPEC is forced to take actions that increase the per barrel price to recoup the value-loss inherent in trading in dollars. Thus $37 per barrel or whatever the price is today. Then all the consequences within the US economy follow as you suggest above.

Next there is the "productivity revolution". Greenspan was right (on one or two things) when, in the late nineties, he suggested that the huge investment in automation and technology was finally working its way through the economy in the form of higher productivity (the gist being that business finally learned how to use all that technology to truly boost productivity). So a given volume of products and services can now be produced with less workers. Thus a big part of the lag in hiring during this "recovery". (Offshoring is part of the picture, one weapon in the owning-classes arsenal, but not the whole story.)

Now the real crisis: If productivity gains were shared across the socioeconomic spectrum, the buying power of the middle class would stay constant even with the loss of jobs, but that was not the case. The weak job market put the owning-class back in the driver's seat, able and willing to supress and lower wages and benefits (by using the threat represented by the enlarged "reserve army of the poor"). As a result, the bottom 90% saw little to negative income growth while corporate profits returned -- and which were funneled into the hands (mostly) of the top-1% in the form of tax-advantaged dividend payments and executive bonuses (CEO pay now at 520+ times the lowest paid). The problem is, the 1% can only consume so many vacation villas, new Lexi, bottles of champagne, and liquid-plasma HDTV sets; their growing surplus searches for new investment opportunities and is not "consumed". So demand slackens -- resulting in even more pressure and givebacks by labor and even more discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force. Exactly the crisis in effective demand that preceded and sustained the Great Depression. Note, all, that Bush's jobs record rivals Herbert Hoover's.

Note also that, unlike 1929, we are faced with even greater pressures than that economy. The Keynesian pump is already fully primed; we're reaching hard limits in natural resources (meaning oil prices will rise steeply in the near future with all that follows from that); and the baby boomers are about to retire demanding payment on the obligations agreed to in their younger days. O'Neill's $44 trillion in future obligations hangs over all of us.

History shows that such huge imbalances in obligations has never been made good before. Nations weasel their way out of it by waging war, inflating currencies (and thus ratcheting down the standard of living for all), or by simply repudiating the debt.

Bush seems intent on using all available levers. He seems intent on protecting the rapacious standards of living of the top 1% while conditions rapidly deteriorate for the rest of us -- it's the "F*ck you, I've got mine!" oligarchic political platform and he should be honest and print that slogan on his campaign buttons. Then maybe those Republican Nascar dads will understand what they're voting for.

We need to wish eachother the best of luck, because we're going to need it, certainly.

[54anickel]

15. Next thing we need to hit him with is the obscene debt/credit that is

contributing to this "economic growth" and GDP numbers. This is NOT real growth, and this maladministration damn well knows it!

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

snip>
Q4 2003 Z.1 Report – A Banner Year for Asset Inflation:



Yesterday the Federal Reserve released the fourth quarter Z.1 “flow of funds.” Once again, the report does not disappoint when it comes illuminating The Great Credit Bubble.

During the fourth quarter, Total Credit (non-financial and financial) expanded by a record $804.8 billion ($3.22 Trillion annualized!), or 9.6%, to $34.45 Trillion. This was up from the third quarter’s $671 billion expansion. Non-financial Credit increased $475.2 billion, or 8.7% annualized, to $22.39 Trillion. Financial Sector borrowings expanded by $317.5 billion, or 11.5% annualized, to $11.4 Trillion.

A record quarter capped off a record year of Credit creation. For 2003, Total Credit expanded by $2.75 Trillion (up 8.7%). This compares to the nineties’ average of $1.28 Trillion, and was up 17% from 2002’s record Credit growth. Total Credit growth amounted to 25% of GDP. Over the past six years, Total Debt was up $13.12 Trillion, or 62%, while GDP increased $2.68 Trillion, or 32%. Total Debt is now 314% of GDP, up from 1997’s 257% and 2000’s 279%.

snip>
Some make the seemingly reasonable case that households are “tapped out.” But such analysis does not give Deserved Credit to Asset Bubble Dynamics and the Paramount Importance of Inflating Household Net Worth. During the fourth quarter, Household Net Worth surged $2.16 Trillion, or 20.5% annualized, to a record $44.41 Trillion. This was about 20% of the year’s GDP, and the strongest increase since 1999’s fourth quarter. For the year, Household Net Worth surged $4.65 Trillion, or 11.7%. This even surpassed 1999’s record increase by 15%. Even including ballooning late-nineties’ Net Worth, the average annual increase throughout the decade was $1.68 Trillion ($1.1 Trillion avg. during the first 7 years).

much more...

[UpInArms]

17. good morning 54anickel!

:hi:

Just forget all your troubles and eat your "house" equities :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

18. He-heh! Knew I should have built this joint out of Gingerbread!

[bvar22]

20. Don't know why everyone acting surprised...

Following the Regan Republican Doctrine will produce the Regan results.....more money for the RICH!!!

Tax breaks for the rich = downsizing, outsourcing, & jobless recovery

Deregulation of Industry = corporate looting

Privatizing of Necessities = white collar very rich criminals, higher consumer prices, no public accountability, looting of public trust.

Regan PROVED this in the 80's.

[JetCityLiberal]

23. Here are 4000 more jobs effected

<snip>

FORT IRWIN, Calif. -- Protecting a remote communications transmitter in the Mojave Desert, Iraq-bound Washington National Guard Spc. Derian Anderson, 27, had one plea for the people she serves and will soon leave behind.

"Don't forget us. Oh, please, don't forget us," Anderson said.

A culinary-arts student in Belltown before she was called up for active duty last fall, Anderson is among the 4,000 members of the Washington National Guard's 81st Armored Brigade who wound up intense training here yesterday. They will spend next week regrouping and cleaning equipment, then head to Iraq later this month for a one-year tour of duty. It marks the largest mobilization of Washington's citizen-soldiers since World War II.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/163581_guard06.html

What is the true effect of the families and the companies these people worked for. One year duty in Iraq.

Bush lies and people die. :puke:

JetCityLiberal

[UpInArms]

25. welcome to DU, JetCityLiberal!

:hi:

Glad to have you here!

It's getting harder and harder to stomach the atrocities, isn't it?

I do hope and believe that more people are awakening and will demand our country back.

[JetCityLiberal]

26. I do believe people are awakening

Thanks for the welcome UpInArms. :hi:

Spoke with a neighbor yesterday that is a serious republican. She said she voted for bush and now is sorry. She is most upset by what he has done to the environment and the economy. She is not sure if she will vote for Kerry, but this is one vote bush won't get this time around (unless the e-vote cast is rigged).

JetCityLiberal

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

27. ... only 3.79 million jobs to go...

[Serendipity36]

28. Jobs are evil...

people sell their souls to their jobs. They sell their lives to that which feeds their lust for money and greed. Lost is the time we spend loving our families and especially children. A Commune where people share love and share labor for all members to thrive is the most peaceful and loving habitat to exist in. It would allow us to share our love for nature and ourselves instead of the material greed which most succumb to.

Peace to all people.

[snippy]

31. Dude . . . you should get that looked at. Help may be available.

FIRE THE LIAR

[LiberalFighter]

29. How many of us were surprised?

NOT ME

[LiberalFighter]

30. I guess the monthly estimates need to be revised...

but I don't have time to do that again.

What I posted before
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1105133#1105306


According to WH they already created 112,000 new jobs in January


That leaves 3,688,000 to go. Or an average of 335,272 new jobs from February to December.

Jobs remaining per month if only 112,000 jobs created per month.

01/2004 3,800,000 316,667
02/2004 3,688,000 335,273
03/2004 3,464,000 357,600
04/2004 3,464,000 384,889
05/2004 3,352,000 419,000
06/2004 3,240,000 462,857
07/2004 3,128,000 521,333
08/2004 3,016,000 603,200
09/2004 2,904,000 726,000
10/2004 2,792,000 930,667
11/2004 2,680,000 1,340,000
12/2004 2,568,000 2,568,000


Average Jobs Needed Per Month to Create 3,800,000 in 2004

[radfringe]

32. If bush*ies spin it - the headline would read

SOME PEOPLE STILL HAVE JOBS!

I know of one person that still has a job and shouldn't.... :evilgrin: