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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 04:40 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 19
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday August 19, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 18, 2009

Dow... 9,217.94 +82.60 (+0.90%)
Nasdaq... 1,955.92 +25.08 (+1.30%)
S&P 500... 989.67 +9.94 (+1.01%)
Gold future... 939.20 +3.40 (+0.36%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.50 +0.04 (+1.01%)
30-Year Bond 4.35 +0.03 (+0.65%)




U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES


Market Conditions During Trading Hours



GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$



Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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    Google Finance    LayoffDaily    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker

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    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 04:43 AM
Response to Original message
1. Market Observation
Market Snap Shot
BY FRANK BARBERA


Having been out of town on vacation last week, we return to Los Angeles to find the markets at a most interesting juncture. As it happens, we see a number of potentially major turning points shaping up in the days just ahead. In today’s somewhat abbreviated update, we walk investors thru our take on some of the key capital markets. Of course, one of the most hotly contested and debated markets is always the trend for the US Stock Market. In recent sessions, a number of analysts have alluded to a substantial change in sentiment in the stock market which showed itself during the course of last week. A rise in the percentage of bulls argued for a potential correction. In some cases, analysts suggested that a downside correction in the S&P 500 could see prices erode toward the 910 to 940 area. In my view, that is probably going to turn out to be a bit too negative, as a number of short term gauges were actually already moving down to oversold values at Monday’s close and in the early going today. On the S&P daily chart, we find that the 9 day RSI has moved from a reading of +83.16 on August 4th (with the S&P at 1005.65) to a reading on Monday, August 17th of +44.24 (with the S&P at a close of 979.73).

.....

Another idea that we are keeping a close eye on at the present time is the price action in some of the market bell-weathers. In this case, our focus is particularly intense on the price action of some of the large cap financials, names like Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan (JPM). In my view, as long as some of these large cap financials are still acting reasonably well on the charts, the stock market will likely remain in an uptrend. In the case of Goldman Sachs (GS), the $155 area is important chart support, with the rising 50 day average at present near $153.14. In my view Goldman remains in a bullish mode as long as the stock price is above $153-$155 while for JP Morgan, the $40 area is solid near term support. Again, we are singling these two names as indicators to watch for signs of any potential, unexpected trend change developments. If the stock market is running out of gas and should begin to top, I believe weakness would soon develop in some of these large cap financial bell-weathers, and that would be a warning that things are starting to deteriorate. In 2007 and 2008, before the major problems fully surfaced, the financials began to act poorly, and with issues surrounding the Commercial Real Estate market likely to heat up in the months ahead, we must once again maintain a close watch on the trend in financials.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 04:44 AM
Response to Original message
2. Today's Report
10:30 Crude Inventories 08/14
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior +2.52M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
31. Petroleum Inventories Report:
Crude stocks down 8.4 mln blrs:EIA
10:31am Today

Gasoline stocks down 2.1 mln brls:EIA
10:31am Today

Distillate supplies down 0.7 mln brls:EIA
10:31am Today
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 04:47 AM
Response to Original message
3. Oil falls below $69 after Asian stock selloff
SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $69 a barrel Wednesday in Asia following a selloff in regional stock markets.

Benchmark crude for September delivery was down 58 cents to $68.61 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, the contract gained $2.44 to settle at $69.19.

Most Asian stock markets dropped sharply Wednesday, with Shanghai's index tumbling as much as 5 percent, amid concerns the recent rally was petering out.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for September delivery fell 1.36 cent to $1.99 a gallon and heating oil dropped 0.79 cent to $1.86. Natural gas for September delivery slid 1.7 cents to $3.08 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #3
32. Sept. oil soars to intraday high of $72.01/brl
Sept. oil soars to intraday high of $72.01/brl
12:00pm Today
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 12:30 PM
Response to Reply #32
36. It all fits so nicely in the ol' supply and demand curve.
:eyes:
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 04:49 AM
Response to Original message
4. Good morning Ozy...looks like another down day for the world markets
I thought the IMF said the "recession" is over?
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:04 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Wishful thinking.
Recession over? Might as well say that waving a white flag is a sign claiming victory. Also consider the source: the IMF. That organization is part of the Goldman Sachs/Carlisle Group PR wings.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #6
24. Looks Like It's a Pump and Dump Day
Got to compensate for oil tanking....
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:01 AM
Response to Original message
5. Does the U.S. Economy Need a Job-Creation Stimulus? (Uh, shit... yeah.)
If the recession is over, as some economists say, why are so many people still unemployed? The so-called jobless recovery is raising an intriguing question: Should America resurrect something like the Works Progress Administration (WPA) - the New Deal job-creation program that put millions of unemployed Americans to work building schools, roads, parks, libraries and other needed infrastructure projects during the Great Depression?

Indeed, the current situation is stark. When people say there are no jobs out there, it's true. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at the start of the recession in December 2007, the ratio of job seekers to job openings was 1.5 to 1. Now six unemployed workers chase every available job. It's a brutal game of musical chairs in which a great many people lose and spiral downward economically with disastrous consequences, not only for themselves and their families, but also for communities that were once productive and prosperous.

The Obama Administration and economists hailed the dip in July unemployment to 9.4% from the 9.5% level in June as an indication that the economy is beginning to recover. But the drop in unemployment is deceptive. Employers shed another 155,000 jobs in July. And the unemployment rate would have gone up, possibly to 9.7%, if the 400,000 Americans who had previously been searching for a job (but became so discouraged they stopped) had continued to seek employment in July. Economists expect the job picture to remain bleak well into 2010.

The standard unemployment number excludes both those who have given up looking for a job and those who have taken part-time jobs but want full-time work. Include them and the number jumps to 20% or higher in states such as Michigan, California, Rhode Island and Oregon, with Tennessee, Nevada and other states in the high teens.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20090819/us_time/08599191700100



Of course, the hideous bunch at the Heritage Foundation think the WPA, now as then, is a bad idea.
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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #5
23. Creating a million new jobs requires around 300 billion of new investment
See http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2007/performers/industries/assets_employee/index.html for a chart of assets per employee per industry.

Even if the new jobs are in industries at the bottom of the list, the cost is a couple hundred thousand dollars per job. And since new investment would be more efficient in terms of productivity per employee, the ratio of assets per employee would likely be higher for new investment.

So the 5 million jobs lost during the downturn will require new investment in US businesses of over $1.5 trillion.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. It Would Be Money Well Spent
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #23
40. 300 billion divided by one million, . . . let's see naught gozinta naught . . .
I get $300,000 per job. Not exactly minimum wage there. I'm sure if you want to hire a $50,000 a year worker, there would be a little additional overhead, but $250,000 worth? Perhaps--just a suggestion--you could use your money a little more efficiently.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #40
47. It's Not Just Labor
Infrastructure requires raw materials to build something real.
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #5
39. Ronald Reagan liked the WPA.
That means the Heritage Foundation is guilty of heresy against the memory of St. Ronnie. Republicans should shun them and refuse to donate to them. (Wishful thinking. I'm sure they still want to replace Roosevelt on the dime.)
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:10 AM
Response to Original message
7. PIMCO'S El-Erian: U.S. stock rally has hit a wall
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive of top bond fund manager PIMCO, on Tuesday said the rally in U.S. stocks had topped out because valuations have shot up too quickly.

Asked if U.S. stocks have hit a wall, El-Erian told Reuters Television: "I think we have, and I think what you are seeing is a massive tug of war going on."

.....

The global equities rally has been tempered by surprisingly weak economic data. On Tuesday, data showed U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell in July, while the inventory of total houses under construction fell to a record low. Last week the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed a growing number of Americans were increasingly worried over jobs and wages.

El-Erian, who oversees $850 billion in assets for Pacific Investment Management Co, including equities, said U.S. stock markets have been on a "sugar high" as recent corporate earnings have surpassed expectations. But for the most part profitability has been driven by cutbacks in layoffs and capital spending, he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090818/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_elerian
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exboyfil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:18 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. I tend to agree with PIMCO
but remember these are bond guys. What do you expect them to say.

I am eyeing S&P 500 in the 900-925 range for reentry after selling at a 1000, but it will depend on the velocity of the drop at the time. I am still very happy with my TIPS holding (40% of my portfolio acquired in November when TIPS rates matched conventional Treasuries).

Will I miss another surge? I don't think so. I do not plan to go through again my stupid decisions of last year. I have made that money back for the most part, but to lose a year's gross salary is a real slap in the face. I have went from a Dollar Cost Averaging/Buy and Hold to a very cautious investor ready to bail at the first sign of trouble.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:31 AM
Response to Reply #8
13. Granted, Pimco's heads are smart.
They can also be very two-dimensional in their approach. Like the gold bugs - these are bond bugs. If there is a trend in bonds then one can bet that Pimco knows which way the stampede is traveling.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:19 AM
Response to Original message
9. U.S. stock index futures point lower
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock index futures fell Wednesday, pointing to a lower opening for Wall Street following another in a recent string of sharp drops by Chinese shares.

Futures on the S&P 500 index fell 10.70 points to 978.90, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 19 points to 1,568. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 86 points.

.....

China's top stock markets saw heavy falls Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 4.3% and the Shenzhen Composite Index ending 4.9% lower. Resource companies led the way down.

.....

European shares also lost ground Wednesday, with miners, bankers and auto makers exerting pressure. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index (ST:SXXP 224.42, -2.81, -1.24%) was down 1.2% in recent action. See Europe Markets.

London's FTSE 100 stock index was 0.8 lower. Stocks took in stride the minutes of the August meeting of the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-index-futures-signal-lower-start-2009-08-19
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #9
41. Between 11:45 and 12:10, there was a sudden 100 point jump in the Dow.
Which begs the question: WTF? Did a new invention hit the market at 11:45? "New mousetrap energizes stock market for 25 minutes."
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:22 AM
Response to Original message
10. G.M. Signs Agreement to Sell Saab
General Motors signed a deal on Tuesday to sell its Saab car business to Koenigsegg, a tiny Swedish luxury carmaker, the first of several big sales to be made by the American automaker.

.....

But questions remain regarding the financing of the deal. A statement from GM Europe was vague about the terms, merely calling the deal a “stock purchase agreement.”

.....

Jan Ake Jonsson, Saab’s managing director, called the deal a “milestone” in a video on the company’s Web site but added that there were still some issues to be resolved.

The Swedish government is still negotiating with Koenigsegg on a possible guarantee for a loan to Saab from the European Investment Bank, a precondition for the deal.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/business/global/19saab.html?hpw
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:24 AM
Response to Original message
11. More than 150 UBS clients reportedly to face U.S. charges
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- U.S. authorities are building criminal cases against more than 150 U.S. nationals who held accounts with Swiss banking group UBS AG, according to reports Wednesday, citing a court filing.

The court document, filed Tuesday, offered the first official confirmation of criminal investigations into Americans who used Swiss bank accounts to avoid U.S. taxes, according to a Reuters report, which added that the number of criminal probes is widely expected to mushroom soon.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-ubs-clients-reportedly-to-face-us-charges-2009-08-19
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:28 AM
Response to Original message
12. Poor HP Earnings Dim Hopes for Tech
Investors looking for evidence that the tech sector has rounded recession's corner were disappointed by results released Aug. 18 by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). The world's largest maker of computers said profits tumbled 19% and that while business conditions are becoming more stable, pricing battles are likely to erode profit further. "We're encouraged by the stability we're beginning to see in the market but not yet ready to call it a turn," Hewlett-Packard CEO Mark Hurd told analysts on a conference call discussing the results.

HP, one of the first tech companies to offer a glimpse into July demand, said fiscal third-quarter sales slid 2.1%, to $27.5 billion, amid slumping demand for computers and printers, particularly in Europe, and as consumers slaked their thirst for so-called netbooks, stripped-down machines that provide Web access but cost far less than traditional notebooks and other computers. Profits fell to $1.64 billion, or 80¢ a share.

.....

Part of the reason for the caution is weakness in Europe, where HP's sales tumbled 12% and other tech companies including Intel (INTC) say the pace of recovery is uneven. "Europe has been a very tough market," HP Chief Financial Officer Cathie Lesjak said on the conference call.

Sales in the PC unit fell 18%, to $8.4 billion, while unit shipments grew 2%. Aside from the shift to low-cost netbooks, HP was also beset by falling prices on mainstream notebooks. Meanwhile, PC component prices such as LCD panels and memory have begun to creep up, slicing profit.

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/aug2009/tc20090818_790428.htm
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CatholicEdHead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 09:15 PM
Response to Reply #12
49. I see a normal replacement cycle for many businesses
Some still do it at the 3yr cycle, some extend it out to 5yrs. I have actually seen HPs replacing other desktops they are refreshing (Dells, IBM ThinkCentres) which is part of HP's bright spot, their acquisition of EDS to sell hardware as part as an overall maintenance package.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:40 AM
Response to Original message
14. Nicole Gelinas: “Too Big to Fail” Must Die
Some really good research and writing here - ozy.

In an April speech to the Economic Club of New York, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Sheila Bair, took a stand on one of today’s most pressing economic questions. The idea that certain financial firms were “too big to fail,” she said, should be “tossed in the dustbin.” Congress should pay attention. Since the early 1980s, Washington has increasingly refused to let the largest or most complex financial institutions—the expression “too big to fail” includes both—go under in a predictable manner. Instead, it has taken extraordinary actions to rescue and protect them, lest their failure inflict broader harm on the economy. By sheltering the lenders to these firms from market discipline, it has encouraged the financial industry and its consumers’ debt load to grow to unsustainable size. Yet even after the Wall Street collapse, the Obama administration, far from following Bair’s advice, is pushing the “too big to fail” policy even further. This course will exact a terrible cost. For our economy to thrive, “too big to fail” must die.

.....

Until the early 1980s, it was generally assumed that failure was a possibility for financial institutions, along with losses for investors who lent to them or held shares in them. Sensible regulation underpinned the assumption. Back in the mid-1930s, the trough of the Great Depression, the federal government created a way for commercial banks to go under without catastrophically damaging the broader economy—as had happened earlier in the decade, when customers, panicked about banks’ health, rushed to withdraw their money, making lending dry up completely. The feds’ instrument was the very institution that Bair now heads: the FDIC, a government-chartered body that insured small depositors’ funds so that they wouldn’t panic. With mom-and-pop depositors protected, the FDIC could then take over failed banks and wind them down in a predictable way, ensuring that shareholders and uninsured lenders—that is, depositors whose accounts exceeded FDIC limits, as well as bondholders—took their lumps. (The FDIC covered only commercial banks—the storehouses of the economy’s vital money and credit supplies—not investment banks, which failed through the normal bankruptcy process.)

Fifty years of policy died in 1984. That May, the nation’s eighth-largest commercial bank, Chicago’s Continental Illinois, found itself in deep trouble. Like any enterprising company in a capitalist society, it had exercised its right to establish a competitive edge and pursue greater profits—with a corresponding risk of failure, which had now struck. Continental’s biggest error was how it paid for its investments...

Continental’s reliance on uninsured short-term lenders was especially negligent because it had invested heavily and unwisely in speculative loans, meaning that a drop in its lenders’ confidence was almost inevitable. Only long-term lenders or guaranteed depositors, who wouldn’t yank their money out immediately in a crisis, could insulate the bank in such a situation. As soon as rumors swirled that Continental’s investments were going bad, the short-term global lenders predictably pulled their funds...

...The Federal Reserve and the FDIC, in a “race to save Continental and thereby sustain confidence in the nation’s banking system,” the New York Times reported, pledged that no uninsured depositor or other lender, including bondholders, would lose money should the bank collapse. In July, to avoid “a major financial crisis,” as the Times put it, the Reagan administration outright nationalized the hobbled bank, with the FDIC taking 80 percent ownership and responsibility for its bad loans. The era of “too big to fail” had begun.

http://city-journal.org/2009/19_3_financial-institutions.html
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:53 AM
Response to Original message
15. Insanity
From The Big Picture: Why is US Government Subsidizing Chinese PPIP?

(excerpt)
...Treasury matches whatever a private investor puts up, then credits 6X as much capital. So if the Chinese are buying $2 billion, the US puts up $2 billion, and then the PPIP allows the purchase of $24 billion of distressed assets in the open market.

All for $2 billion dollars. Oh, and the FDIC would guarantee the debt being issued by the PPIP.

Hence, taxpayer dollars are subsidizing Chinese purchases of U.S. assets at a discount.
Who the bloody hell made this okay?!?

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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 06:22 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. As if we taxpayers have enough to bailout our own banksters

We are so broke
:(

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 06:20 AM
Response to Original message
16. What's really different about this recession?
Edited on Wed Aug-19-09 06:21 AM by ozymandius
Macrobolog:
-see very insightful chart-

...the increase in people reporting that they are involuntarily working part-time rather than full-time is considerably higher in this recession than in past recessions. Although the increase in these workers has moderated some since the spring of this year, the number of people in the category of working part-time for economic reasons remains at 8.8 million, well above the level of past contractions in both absolute and relative terms.

This recession has given us many puzzles to mull over. Now we can add the unusual pattern of part-time work to the list.


I differ with the term "recession" and argue that we are in the midst of a depression. - ozy
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 06:26 AM
Response to Original message
18. The other Bush bubble by Krugman
Reading this piece about the dismal state of Florida, I found myself remembering this:
Governor in Chief
Jeb Bush’s remarkable eight years of achievement in Florida.
by Fred Barnes

In a state with a surging population, Bush has presided over a booming economy with the highest rate of job creation in the country and an unemployment rate of 3.0 percent (the national average is 4.6 percent).
And all of it was pure bubble.

Please go to Krugman's blog for relative links.
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Loge23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 08:23 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. More fun facts from the Sunshine State
You well-informed folks probably heard about the population decline in FL the other day - the first decline since 1946.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZOI02HF8V80

But let me share my real life account from the bunker.
In my business (a leisure product somewhat ubiquitous in FL and tied to the construction industry) we peaked in the bubble in early 2007, in terms of permits.
Since that time, permits are off a whopping 80% - 80%!
Our business is off (mercifully) somewhat less than that, due to a sustained maintenance base. We've cut our workforce by about 60% -which of course is a part of that 10.6% figure in the Times article Sunday. Most of us bunkerites think the figure is much closer to 15% - it's just they have given up or left the state. No one in our business has seen a raise in years - indeed many of us have absorbed significant salary cuts.

So it's real nice to see the bloated pigs of WS, big Pharma, and Insurance lapping up what's left of our monetary supply.
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 07:21 AM
Response to Original message
19. dollar watch


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.008 Change -0.335 (-0.43%)

Bank of England Votes 6-3 to Expand Asset Purchases, Governor King Dissents

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Bank_of_England_Votes_6_3_1250680165477.html

The Bank of England Minutes showed the MPC unanimously agreed to keep the benchmark interest at the record-low, but voted 6-3 to increase the scope of the asset purchase program by GBP 50B to GBP 175B earlier this month.

Governor Mervyn King, along with Timothy Besley and David Miles pushed for a GBP 75B expansion in an effort to support an economic recovery, with the statement going on to say that ‘all members agreed that substantial further asset purchases were needed over the next three months’ as policymakers expect inflation to remain below the 2% target until 2012. The board maintained a dovish outlook for price growth and projects inflation to slip below an annual rate of 1.0% this year, and went onto say that ‘insufficient stimulatory monetary policy’ could hamper the prospects for a sustainable recovery as the outlook for future growth remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the central bank noted that ‘the most immediate downside risks to the economy seems to have receded,’ while the rate of money growth remained surprisingly weak, and the BoE may take further steps to steer the economy out of the recession as price pressures remain subdued.

As a result, the British pound tumbled lower against its currency counterparts following dovish outlook held by the central bank, and slipped back below the 50-Day moving average (1.6464) to retrace the previous day’s advance against the U.S. dollar. However, the overnight decline looks to have stalled at an intraday low of 1.6375, with the pair holding above the weekly low (1.6275), and a rise in U.K. retail sales may push the GBP/USD higher over the next 24 hours of trading as growth prospects improve.

...more...


US Dollar, Japanese Yen - Why the Low-Yielders' Rally May Not Be Over Yet

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Japanese_Yen___1250634825599.html

The US dollar and Japanese yen were the weakest of the majors, giving up most of their gains from Monday, as FX carry trades and equities bounced, with the S&P 500 closing up 1 percent at 989.67. The market showed little reaction to US data, as the producer price index (PPI) fell more than anticipated at a rate of -0.9 percent in August, amidst weaker energy prices. Ultimately, this brought the annual rate of growth down to a record low of -6.8 percent, but even excluding volatile factors like food and energy, annual pace of growth slowed to more than one-year low of 2.6 percent pace from 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, housing starts unexpectedly fell 1 percent in July to an annual pace of 581K while building permits dipped 1.8 percent to an annual pace of 560K. As leading indicators for other US housing reports, the data doesn't bode well for upcoming new and existing home sales and suggests that cheaper prices, lower interest rates, and an $8000 tax credit for many new homebuyers will not be enough to fully counter the impact of rising unemployment.

Looking ahead, there will be no key US data released on Wednesday. We have reason to believe, however, that the rise we saw in risky assets on Tuesday will not last. First, according to Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele on the DailyFX Forex Stream, trading volume in stocks this week has been at its lowest since July 2, 2009 (ahead of the US Independence Day holiday), December 24/26, 2008 (before and after the Christmas holiday), and November 28 (the day after the US Thanksgiving Day holiday), suggesting the increase will not last. Indeed, meaningful rallies typically occur only with higher trading volumes. Second, a quick Google News search of “carry trade” shows that optimism may be hitting an extreme, as evidenced by the trumpeting a headline like Why the ‘Carry Trade’ is Back in a major media publication (the Wall Street Journal). Also, the August 2009 issue of Futures Magazine shows a bull in the mist, suggesting that a bull market in stocks is emerging. Third, on Monday the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Survey showed that banks tightened lending in Q2 due to a "more uncertain economic outlook," suggesting that credit conditions are nowhere near normal and adding to evidence that the financial sector could continue to lead the US stock market on a gradual decline.

We noted yesterday that pairs like, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, and NZDJPY, among other, broke below trendlines that have served as support since early to mid-July, and on Tuesday those levels were tested as they now form resistance. Given the noted signs of an important turn lower in equities and FX carry trades, there looks to be great upside potential for safe haven currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen in coming weeks.

...more...

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mbperrin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 07:39 AM
Response to Original message
20. Ha! Double digit rec! Woo-hoo!
Thanks as always to everyone on this thread - it's a great resource, and especially thanks this morning for reminding me of Continental Illinois!

Now gotta go for faculty orientation - we get children Monday!

Have a great day, all!
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #20
45. They have been orientating us so much
we don't know which way is up. The good news-they still have been feeding us.

The economy and the crappy way some principals treat their nurses have created a double whammy for HISD-they are over 12 Nurses short and school starts Monday. Why work for low pay in school when you get more working at a hospital. Word has gotten out among school Nurses and most of the qualified school Nurses are staying away.

They have advertised for an hourly Nurse for $11.78 for going on 2 years and haven't gotten a response :spray: :rofl: . Health and Medical Services have tried to tell HR they will never get a Nurse for that but that is the price they have set.

So many Nurses transferred schools this year. My old school hasn't found a replacement for me yet and 2 really nasty principals that lost nurses haven't gotten any takers. It is like when the tide goes out and you see who has been swimming naked-except now, you (Nurses) can tell where you don't want to work. And it really is a shame because Nurses are real givers and it doesn't take much to keep them happy. Maybe now they will consider us a difficult position to fill and give us a stipend. We don't get those performance bonuses.

By for now. Hope to drop in tomorrow.
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mbperrin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. Same for orienting. But no food til Friday.
School management is often brilliant, isn't it?

Or as we say around here, "That's just what they want."

Makes it easier when you skip all pretense of logic and reason.

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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
22. Bloomberg: Ex-Credit Suisse Broker Eric Butler Guilty of Securities Fraud

8/18/09 Ex-Credit Suisse Broker Eric Butler Guilty of Securities Fraud

Former Credit Suisse Group AG broker Eric Butler was convicted of fraudulently selling millions of dollars in subprime securities to corporate clients that allowed him to generate higher commissions.

Butler, 37, was found guilty on all three counts after two hours of jury deliberations in federal court in Brooklyn, New York. Co-defendant Julian Tzolov, 36, who was returned to New York from Spain on July 20 after fleeing prosecution, pleaded guilty to conspiracy, wire fraud and securities fraud July 22. He testified as a prosecution witness against Butler, his former partner, during the three-week trial.

Butler and Tzolov were indicted last year, charged with conducting what prosecutors said was an illegal scheme in which they falsely told clients their products were backed by federally-guaranteed student loans and a safe alternative to bank deposits or money market funds. The products were actually linked to auction-rate securities.

Butler, convicted of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, securities fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, faces a maximum sentence of 45 years in prison, prosecutors said. U.S. District Judge Jack Weinstein said yesterday he probably won’t impose the term sought by prosecutors when he sentences both men on Oct. 27, saying he believed they operated in a “culture of corruption.”

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoU6KJ4duPnA
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #22
30. Update the Masthead Again! Go Ozy!
Edited on Wed Aug-19-09 12:23 PM by Demeter
We're finally getting some justice around here!
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
26.  China becomes Japan's largest trading partner in first half of 2009
Edited on Wed Aug-19-09 10:32 AM by Ghost Dog
TOKYO, Aug. 19 (Xinhua) -- China becomes Japan's biggest trading partner in both exports and imports in the first six months this year, as the global economic downturn affected Japan-U.S. trade more seriously, the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) said Wednesday.

Exports to China fell 25.3 percent from a year earlier to 46.5 billion dollars and imports from the country dropped 17.8 percent to 56.2 billion dollars, however, trading with other countries and regions including the United States showed larger declines, JETRO said in its report.

It is the first time exports to China surpassed those to the United States.

In the January-June period, the trade with China accounted for 20.4 percent of the total trade volume of Japan, while that with the United States accounted for 13.7 percent and that with South Korea 6.1 percent.

/.. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-08/19/content_11912240.htm

JETRO Press Release: http://www.jetro.go.jp/en/news/releases/20090819280-news
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #26
28. The Secret of China's Economic Success: State Owned Banks
While the U.S. spends trillions of dollars to bail out its banking system, leaving its economy to languish, China is being called a “miracle economy” that has decoupled from the rest of the world. As the rest of the world sinks into the worst recession since the 1930s, China has maintained a phenomenal 8% annual growth rate. Those are the reports, but commentators are dubious. They ask how that growth is possible, when other countries relying heavily on exports have suffered major downturns and remain in the doldrums. Economist Richard Wolff skeptically observes:

We now have a situation in the world where we have a global capitalist crisis. Everywhere, consumption is down. Everywhere, people are buying fewer goods, including goods from China. How is it possible that in that society, so dependent on the world economy, they could now have an explosive growth? Their stock market is now 100 percent higher than at its low -- nothing remotely like that hardly anywhere in the world, certainly not in the United States or Europe. How is that possible? In order to believe what the Chinese are saying, you would have to agree that in a matter of months, at most a year, no more, they have been able to transform their economy from an export-based powerhouse to a domestically focused industrial engine. Nowhere in the world has that ever taken less than decades.”

How can China’s stimulus plan be working so well, when ours is barely working at all? The answer may be simple: China has not let its banking system run roughshod over its productive economy. Chinese banks work for the people rather than the reverse. So says Samah El-Shahat, a presenter for Al Jazeera English who has a doctorate in economics from the University of London. In an August 10 article titled “China Puts People Before Banks,” she writes:

“China is the one leading economy where the divide – the disconnect between its financial sector and the world normal Chinese people and their businesses inhabit – doesn’t exist. Both worlds are booming again and this is due to the way the government handled its banks. China hasn’t allowed its banking sector to become so powerful, so influential, and so big that it can call the shots or highjack the bailout. In simple terms, the government preferred to answer to its people and put their interests first before that of any vested interest or group. And that is why Chinese banks are lending to the people and their businesses in record numbers.”

What Wolff calls a “global capitalist crisis” is actually a credit crisis; and in China, unlike in the U.S., credit has been flowing freely, not just to the financial sector but to industry and local government. State-owned banks have massively increased lending, with local governments and state enterprises borrowing on a huge scale. The People’s Bank of China estimates that total loans for the first half of 2009 were $1.08 trillion, 50% more than the amount of loans Chinese banks issued in all of 2008. The U.S. Federal Reserve has also engaged in record levels of lending, but its loans have gone chiefly to bail out the financial sector itself, leaving Main Street high and dry. Writes El-Shahat:

“In the UK and US, the financial sector is booming, while the world of normal people seems to be going from bad to worse, unemployment is high, businesses are folding and house foreclosures are still taking place. Wall Street and Main Street might as well be existing on different planets. And this is in large part because banks are still not lending money to the people. In the UK and US, banks have captured all the money from the taxpayers and the cheap money from quantitative easing from central banks. They are using it to shore up, and clean up their balance sheets rather than lend it to the people. The money has been hijacked by the banks, and our governments are doing absolutely nothing about that. In fact, they have been complicit in allowing this to happen.”

/more... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12849.html
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #28
34. Sounds Like Bubble-Blowing to Me
Watch out China
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 01:11 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. Uh huh. But there does appear to be someone in the driving seat:
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks and bonds fell on concern economic growth in China will falter as banks rein in lending.

The Shanghai Composite Index retreated as much as 5.1 percent, extending its drop from a 2009 high to more than 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market. India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index lost 1.5 percent.

The retreat in developing-nation bonds sent yields over U.S. Treasuries higher by seven basis points to 3.83 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI+ Index. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. Ukraine and South Africa paced declines in emerging-market bonds, with the spread on their debt widening 11 basis points.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a benchmark for equities in 22 countries, slid 0.4 percent to 822.05 as of 11:05 a.m. in New York. The Shanghai index’s price-to-earnings ratio has surged to 30, almost double the ratio of 18 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 17 for the MSCI gauge.

“China can be a leading indicator,” Benjamin Pedley, managing director of LGT Investment Management Ltd., said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “It may be a case of history repeating.”

The Shanghai gauge has foreshadowed moves in global equities the past two years. It peaked on Oct. 16, 2007, two weeks before the MSCI All-Country World Index. The Shanghai index fell 72 percent from its 2007 high and bottomed out on Nov. 4, 2008, four months before the MSCI index. The Chinese measure reached its 2009 high on Aug. 4, seven trading days before the global index.

Bank-Loan Plunge

Stocks in China, the world’s third-largest economy, have slumped this month as a plunge in new bank loans in July and concern the government will seek to damp property speculation eroded investor confidence. Earnings for Chinese companies that reported since July 8 trailed analysts’ estimates by 12 percent on average, Bloomberg data show.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601013&sid=aBpOrkCiocoM
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 01:21 PM
Response to Reply #34
38. ANALYSIS - China goes house hunting to rev up economy
Wed Aug 19, 2009 9:26pm IST BEIJING (Reuters) - The Chinese government is attempting to pass the baton of growth from state-funded infrastructure investment to the private housing sector, a risky but necessary move to sustain the economic recovery. Construction cranes sprouting in big cities, busy furniture shops and soaring property sales all show that the transition is going smoothly so far, though officials are wary that house prices may rise too high, too quickly.

China's biggest listed property developer, Vanke, lifted its housing starts target for this year by 45 percent, while its rival Poly Real Estate said sales in January-July rose 143 percent from a year earlier. On the ground, construction firms, big and small, are trying to meet the demand, last years' downturn now a distant memory.

...

The economic importance of the property sector in China is hard to overstate. Investment in residential housing accounted for about 10 percent of gross domestic product before a property boom turned to bust in 2008, roughly the same as the contribution from the country's vaunted export factories.

The government's first steps last year to revive the stalling Chinese economy were to offer tax cuts to encourage home purchases, followed by rules to ease access to mortgages.

These are bearing fruit.

With housing investment up an annual 11.6 percent in the first seven months, Chinese growth momentum is broadening out and the central government has been able to slow the pace of its stimulus spending on infrastructure.

REAL ECONOMY

But Beijing must strike a fine balance in its bid to kick-start the housing market.

On the one hand, it wants rising prices to persuade house hunters to stop putting off purchases and to get developers to invest in new projects. On the other hand, it is wary of prices rising too quickly, luring speculators into the market and turning it into an asset bubble, not an economic driver.

/... http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-41846920090819?rpc=401&=undefined&sp=true
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
27. Debt: 08/17/2009 11,682,544,443,828.72 (UP 12,761,360,552.92) (Up, mostly debt, with a little FICA.)
(Debt up 12B$, FICA up half a billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,347,052,559,307.50 + 4,335,491,884,521.22
UP 12,224,191,599.44 + UP 537,168,953.48

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,113,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,039.82.
A family of three owes $114,119.47. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,729,828,052.07.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,735,207,238.18.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,646,974,746.63.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 144 reports in 209 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.28B$ per report, 5.05B$/day so far.
There were 219 reports in 321 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,252 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/17/2009 11,682,544,443,828.72 BHO (UP 1,055,667,394,915.64 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,657,819,546,916.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon

82,135,343,657.42 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $2,017,912,640,569.65 in last 333 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4019955&mesg_id=4020809
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 05:24 PM
Response to Reply #27
48. Debt: 08/18/2009 11,726,594,754,347.95 (UP 44,050,310,519.23) (Up 36B$.)
(Debt up 36 billion, FICA side up four billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,383,334,829,316.71 + 4,343,259,925,031.24
UP 36,282,270,009.21 + UP 7,768,040,510.02

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,120,742 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,182.36.
A family of three owes $114,547.08. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,482,892,507.16.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,203,550,922.16.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,940,828,989.52.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 145 reports in 210 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.53B$ per report, 5.24B$/day so far.
There were 220 reports in 322 days of FY2009 averaging 7.74B$ per report, 5.29B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,251 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/18/2009 11,726,594,754,347.95 BHO (UP 1,099,717,705,434.87 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,701,869,857,435.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******
08/13/2009 +004,096,319,823.99 ------------*********
08/14/2009 +000,017,806,259.60 ------------*******
08/17/2009 +012,224,191,599.44 ------------********** Mon
08/18/2009 +036,282,270,009.21 ------------**********

117,997,280,048.08 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $2,061,962,951,088.88 in last 334 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4021828&mesg_id=4022221
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Ghost Dog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
29. Nouriel Roubini: A Phantom Economic Recovery?
Where is the American and global economy headed? Last year, there were two sides to the debate. One camp argued that the recession in the United States would be V-shaped — short and shallow. It would last only eight months, like the two previous recessions of 1990-1991 and 2001, and the world would decouple from the US contraction. Others, including me, argued that, given the excesses of private-sector leverage (in households, financial institutions, and corporate firms), this would be a U-shaped recession — long and deep. It would last about 24 months, and the world would not decouple from the US contraction.

Today, 20 months into the US recession — a recession that became global in the summer of 2008 with a massive re-coupling — the V-shaped decoupling view is out the window. This is the worst US and global recession in 60 years. If the US recession were — as most likely — to be over at the end of the year, as is likely, it will have been three times as long and about fives times as deep — in term of the cumulative decline in output — as the previous two.

Today’s consensus among economists is that the recession is already over, that the US and global economy will rapidly return to growth, and that there is no risk of a relapse. Unfortunately, this new consensus could be as wrong now as the defenders of the V-shaped scenario were for the past three years.

Data from the US — rising unemployment, falling household consumption, still declining industrial production, and a weak housing market — suggest that America’s recession is not over yet. A similar analysis of many other advanced economies suggests that, as in the US, the bottom is quite close but it has not yet been reached. Most emerging economies may be returning to growth, but they are performing well below their potential.

Moreover, for a number of reasons, growth in the advanced economies is likely to remain anaemic and well below trend for at least a couple of years.

The first reason is likely to create a long-term drag on growth: households need to deleverage and save more, which will constrain consumption for years.

Second, the financial system — both banks and non-bank institutions — is severely damaged. Lack of robust credit growth will hamper private consumption and investment spending.

Third, the corporate sector faces a glut of capacity, and a weak recovery of profitability is likely if growth is anaemic and deflationary pressures still persist. As a result, businesses are not likely to increase capital spending.

Fourth, the re-leveraging of the public sector through large fiscal deficits and debt accumulation risks crowding out a recovery in private-sector spending. The effects of the policy stimulus, moreover, will fizzle out by early next year, requiring greater private demand to support continued growth.

Domestic private demand, especially consumption, is now weak or falling in over-spending countries (the US, the United Kingdom, Spain, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, etc), while not increasing fast enough in over-saving countries (China, Asia, Germany, Japan, etc) to compensate for the reduction in these countries’ net exports. Thus, there is a global slackening of aggregate demand relative to the glut of supply capacity, which will impede a robust global economic recovery.

There are also now two reasons to fear a double-dip recession. First, the exit strategy from monetary and fiscal easing could be botched, because policymakers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they take their fiscal deficits (and a potential monetisation of these deficits) seriously and raise taxes, reduce spending, and mop up excess liquidity, they could undermine the already weak recovery. But if they maintain large budget deficits and continue to monetise them, at some point — after the current deflationary forces become more subdued — bond markets will revolt. At this point, inflationary expectations will increase, long-term government bond yields will rise, and the recovery will be crowded out.

A second reason to fear a double-dip recession concerns the fact that oil, energy and food prices may be rising faster than economic fundamentals warrant, and could be driven higher by the wall of liquidity chasing assets, as well as by speculative demand. Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for the global economy, as it created a major income shock for the US, Europe, Japan, China, India and other oil-importing economies. The global economy, barely rising from its knees, could not withstand the contractionary shock if similar speculative forces were to drive oil rapidly towards $100 a barrel.

So the end of this severe global recession will be closer at the end of this year than it is now, the recovery will be anaemic rather than robust in advanced economies, and there is a rising risk of a double-dip recession. The recent market rallies in stocks, commodities, and credit may have gotten ahead of the improvement in the real economy. If so, a correction cannot be too far behind.

/. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/nouriel-roubiniphantom-recovery/367421/
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DU GrovelBot  Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 12:23 PM
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 12:29 PM
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35. K&R
For any of you wondering... Grovelbot is voiced by a nice little 72 year old woman who lives in Omaha that does taped messages for a living.


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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 03:06 PM
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42. Dr. Hugin, we have a wildfire.
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Hugin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 03:10 PM
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43. Precisely, Dr. TCLambert.
Kudos on getting the reference.
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #43
44. Really enjoyed the movie, but it was such bad, bad science fiction.
They spent a huge amount of time and effort trying to decontaminate the human body, then kept everyone isolated from the samples they were studying. And, of course, in real biohazard level 4 labs, they don't do any of that. The techs just climb into hazmat suits connected to an external air supply.
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