Consumer Confidence Suffers Surprise Fall

[Liberal Veteran]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence (news - web sites) suffered a sharp and unexpected fall in July as worries over rising unemployment took a heavy toll, the Conference Board (news - web sites) reported on Tuesday.

The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index slid to 76.6 in July from 83.5 in June, the lowest since March. The reading completely confounded analysts, who had looked for an improvement to 85.0.

The expectations index slumped to 86.4 from 96.4, while the present situation index fell to 61.9 from 64.2, the group said in a statement.

"The rising level of unemployment and sentiment that a turnaround in labor market conditions is not around the corner have contributed to deflating consumers' spirits this month," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center.

more


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20030729/bs_nm/economy_consumers_survey_dc

[SpiralHawk]

1. Unexpected drop? With BushCo at the helm?

Not for this camper. Alas, I fully expected them to drive the economy into the crapper, and I fully expect them to keep it there through general incompetence and -- as * himself would say -- "malfeeance."

Harumpfff !

[Liberal Veteran]

3. Yeah....I know. It's one of those "duh" headlines....

like:

Pre-Dawn Beachgoers Witness Surprise Sunrise.

[I AM SPARTACUS]

21. Surprise, Surprise, Surprise...

[gratuitous]

2. Well, that just can't be right!

Chimpy and his economic chicken entrail diviners have told us for the last couple of weeks that the economy's about to take off like a rocket! Why shouldn't consumers be all confident about that?

Or is consumer confidence, like unemployment numbers, now one of the lagging economic indicators?

[seasat]

4. I also wonder if the rise in mortgage rates affected them.

It seems like a combination of the rise mortgage rates (still low but rising) and the slow down in the housing market may also be affecting consumer confidence. If those refinancing, bought using adjustable rate mortgages, they could be looking at higher rates in a couple of years. The rising rates may be further slowing down the already slowing housing market. Y'all think we could be looking at another bubble burst in the housing sector?

[ze_dscherman]

12. Some people think like that

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- When it's sweltering, you seek a cool place. When it comes to hot residential real estate, it may be time to cool your ardor.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the real estate industry insist that there's no real estate bubble. Greenspan's conventional wisdom argument is that most people don't turn over relatively illiquid real estate the way they sell stocks and bonds.

That's true, yet there's evidence that housing prices may be slackening. A combination of high consumer debt, unemployment and the flow of hot money back into stocks will trigger a decline in the hottest residential markets. It's time to prepare for the inevitable bursting of the bubble.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_wasik&sid=aN9ui2A3TsDg

[ozone_man]

29. It's just starting now and will accelerate in the next year or two.

Just in time for election '04. The deflating of the Real Estate bubble will also deflate the rebounding stock bubble.

[Maeve]

5. And the markets react

Dow 9,180.37 -86.14 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 1,714.59 -20.77 (-1.20%)
S&P 500 984.94 -11.58 (-1.16%)

[gristy]

6. OMG, that's a helluva drop

Can anyone locate and post a graph of this over the last few years?

[MrBenchley]

13. No, I can't!

But I can offer these figures from that survey...

July, 1998.....137.2
July, 1999.....136.2
July, 2000.....143.0
July, 2001.....116.3
July, 2002.......97.4
July, 2003.......76.6

[KoKo]

15. Here's a graph of "Consumer Confidence Levels" .........

[OldCurmudgeon]

27. just to make things CLEAR

here's a slight modification of your figure

http://wsgs02.lngs.infn.it:8000/images/cci1a.gif

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

7. THere is a break with reality...

Out there, in the markets. They seem to think that if you keep saying "happy talk" on the economy, your words will be made flesh. There are few morsels of real economic science in so much of the crap being spewed in the usual financial foghorns, like WSJ and Bloomberg Radio.

A consumer-based economy that is eviscerating its largest group of consumers will soon be little to no economy at all. Word Up.

[gratuitous]

10. "A consumer-based economy . . ."

By Gadfrey man, that's brilliant! I don't have the economic expertise of a pissant, but even I can wrap my feeble brain around that thought:

"A consumer-based economy that is eviscerating its largest group of consumers will soon be little to no economy at all."

[aquart]

8. I'm not surprised. Why are the "experts" surprised?

Haven't they figured out what's happening here? Terrified people don't buy lighthearted consumer goods. And Bush's War on Terrorism consists primarily of terrifying Americans and our trading partners.

He's crippled the tourism industry throughout the world. Not one job in this nation is secure in any field.

Gosh, so why aren't people buying?

[Enraged_Ape]

9. B-but yesterday consumer confidence was supposed to go up!!

This was the news just an hour and a half ago...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030729/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc_15

Don't believe a g-d think these people say.

[karlschneider]

11. Rachel Cohen gonna have a 3-martini & 2 crow lunch today...

;-)

[Neutrino]

14. What's that line from '29?" Prosperity is right around the corner".

and "a chicken in every pot"?. Shruby's hero is FDR, and it
looks like he might get a chance to wear that suit too.

[radwriter0555]

16. LOL! I know I'm SHOCKED and AWED....

right?

[Snellius]

17. "The reading completely confounded analysts"?

Wishful thinking? Maybe that's because they still have their jobs. I wonder what the prediction would be by unemployed analysts.

[diplomats]

23. I posted a story yesterday

that quoted several economists expecting consumer confidence to go up. Man, were they way off! They also predict GDP will be a lot stronger in the second half of 2003. Hmmm...

[GainesT1958]

18. And today VF Corporation (Makers of Lee and Wrangler jeans)...

Just announced that it's closing a plant in the Northeastern North Carolina town of Windsor, and "scaling back" the workforce in its Wilson, N.C. plant, laying off more than 800 workers between the two communities.

I'll bet THOSE consumers aren't feeling very "confident" today!:mad:

Wonder what the latest "net jobs lost per month" is for Dub now? :eyes:

B-)

[JPace]

24. Northeastern North Carolina

Same thing is happening in Western North Carolina,
factories are laying off and closing plants like
dominoes. Most are shipping the jobs overseas
where they can get slave labor for pennies on the
dollar. People are scared, there are no jobs
left that pay a living wage.

[Zech Marquis]

19. wanna you mean a surprise/

I wonder what those clowns are drinking--perhaps they had a little too much vodka and only thought consumers were ready to buy some more products...HA!

Whre do these anal--lysts come from anyway, the Enron Business School or something? :evilgrin:

[ramapo]

20. Surprised about the surprise

What a shock. The economic propaganda has not convinced the citizenry that all is well with our economy.

[DemoTex]

22. Gomer Pyle said it best:

Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!

[booksenkatz]

25. I cordially invite the analysts

to spend a week with me. See how much I spend on groceries for 2.5 people, although I am a very good bargain shopper. It would make you soil your undies. See how much we pay for our mortgage for a modest home... it just keeps going up and up and up. Check out our gas prices here in the northern part of the country ~ it's anywhere from 30-cents to a dollar more than the southerners are paying. Take a gander at my property tax bill and my state tax bill.

Then help me hunt for a job since my position was eliminated in March 2002.

Then kiss my ass and tell me how surprised you are at the latest consumer confidence figures.

[JohnnyAmerica]

26. I have a friend...

who's an assistant department manager for a large retail chain, and she told me a couple of weeks ago that large layoffs were beginning in her company. She says that sales are off 20% recently.
People are shopping less.
So I guess the Let's keep them scared so they'll forget about the economy scam doesn't appear to be working.
BTW, the Dept. of Homeland Security came out today with a warning that Al Qaeda may be planning to hijack planes. Nothing concrete, just thought you should know.
:shrug:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

28. Time for another "Orange Alert"!!!

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