U.S. Enters Recovery as Stimulus Refutes Skeptics, Survey Shows

[Heidi]

Source: Bloomberg

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s has begun as President Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus -- derided as insufficient and budget-busting months ago -- takes effect, a survey of economists indicated.

The economy will expand 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median of 53 forecasts in the monthly Bloomberg News survey. Analysts lifted their estimate for the third quarter by 1.2 percentage points compared with July, the biggest such boost in surveys dating from May 2003.

“We’ve averted the worst, and there are clear signs the stimulus is working,” said Kenneth Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board in New York.

The new projections, following better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing, employment and home construction, echo gains in investor confidence that have propelled the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index to its high for the year. A rebound may help cushion declines in Obama’s approval ratings, political analysts said.

“The fact that people for the first time in over a year are starting to look at some glimmers of hope plays to the prospect of some strength in the stimulus,” said Susan Molinari, a Republican strategist in Washington who advised Rudy Giuliani during his presidential nomination campaign in 2008.


Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7iQTrYFwTtY

[knowbody0]

1. clap clap

[Mythsaje]

2. If it isn't going to be just a minor bump, we need expansive reinvestment

in American industry... with American workers. Otherwise a jobless "recovery" isn't going to help the economy much in the long-term at all.

[Craftsman]

22. No new decent paying jobs = no recovery.

Nuff said.

[Mythsaje]

23. Bingo...n/t

[Dulcinea]

29. There is no such thing as a "jobless recovery."

Until people start working, there will be no recovery. All this other crap is just numbers in a database.

[sofa king]

3. Jeez, that took forever!

It only took Bush three months to rename his first recession the "Clinton recession" and thereby made it go away entirely. Until 9/11 came along, that is, but that next recession was brilliantly turned into a highly profitable war. Remember how you got filthy rich after 9/11? And everyone had jobs?

And we all stayed that way until the Obama recession, when we all started suffering again starting on January 20, 2009.

[opihimoimoi]

4. bush had the watch when suffering began...long before 1/20/09

[sofa king]

7. Oh, don't I know it!

From my personal point of view, this recession began the day that Dick Cheney started batting the word around in September, 2000, and it continued unabated for over eight years. My snide comments above are supposed to be sarcastic, but I guess I failed to sell it.

It took less than eight months for President Obama to begin turning it around, not unlike President Clinton did in 1993 without a single Republican vote. Obviously, economic recovery is not the GOP's area of expertise.

But screwing up an economy sure as hell is.

[Butch350]

24. I kind got yer sarcasm - but it took a double-take.

[tocqueville]

5. 'A Recovery Only a Statistician Can Love'

But the same data also explain why any recovery isn't going to feel like one anytime soon for millions of Americans. Its existence will be confirmed by statistics, but, over at least the next year, the benefits are unlikely to materialize in the form of higher wages or tax receipts or more jobs.

"It's going to be a recovery only a statistician can love," Wells Fargo senior economist Mark Vitner said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/11/AR2009081100988.html?hpid=topnews

[Heidi]

6. THAT is an oustanding quote.

:thumbsup:

[Glenda]

21. I'm a statistician :)

so apparently :woohoo:

Although I am paying continued attention to the job recovery part. That is going to take a while.

[Birthmark]

8. Would this be a survey...

...of the same economists who completely failed to see the economic collapse coming in the first place? If so, you'll understand my reluctance to believe anything they say either way.

[northernlights]

9. I'll believe there is a recovery

When I'm earning a reasonable income.

There is definitely something stirring. I've found my 1st employment since '07, when I made a grand $10/hour and was poisoned and harrassed by my employer (who has since, mercifully, gone under).

Now I'm ending my 2nd week making sandwiches at Subway for a bit over minimum. I work literally nonstop in 6-hour stretches -- no breaks, even to pee, and running most of the time. If something doesn't break for me soon, my body will break.

Oh, and I had a 20 year career in high tech marcom in which I earned the low-6 figures toward the end, before it crashed right around when W stole office. :grr:

[Grinchie]

10. This is the most unusual way to determine growth ever..

The median of 53 Surveys, but not based on any numbers to speak of.

Show me the numbers, and the surveys, and the data they used to come to their conculusion, and it better not be based on Obama's DLC club starting to lose popularity.

I will take this as another bit of positive propaganda after a bad day on wall street.

[jasi2006]

11. Is someone pushes away from falling over a cliff

why complain that they made you stub your toe? Things could have been a hell of a lot worse. If only the media would report on the positives and now cram so much negativity down our throats people might be willing to drop some of their hate mongering. If the MSM would do half the job they did on us concerning WMDs, in a more positive direction things would be a lot different. Instead, they continue to feed the frenay of the RW miitias and fringe elements.

[fasttense]

12. It still feels like a depression to me. There ARE NO JOBS.

If I had known how bad the bush was going to make our economy, I would never have moved here. This part of TN has a 16.5% unemployment rate. When I moved here it was around 5%. But the really weird thing, 16.5% isn't so bad, sooo why are there absolutely no jobs above minimum or less?

(Waiters and waitresses get less than minimum and are suppose to make it up with tips, what a scam. As if people around here tip decently. Hell, they are just glad to have the money to pay the bill let alone tip.)

Where did all our jobs go? There is absolutely nothing here.

[ixion]

13. uh-huh... right

wishful thinking, that.

Consumers have been battered and smashed and soaked for every penny by CC companies. With credit lines cut or closed and interest rates rates jacked up for even the most diligent, tell me, what exactly is going to drive all this growth?

It won't be consumers, I can assure you of that.

And since this economy was largely based on consumer spending, there is nothing -- and I mean nothing -- that is ready to step up and take its place, what exactly is going to drive this 2% growth?

Nothing.

And that's just one facet. The thing that tipped the apple cart -- the housing market -- is still in a shambles, and the commercial RE market is following closely behind.

Sorry, I don't agree with the median of these forecasts.

[WriteDown]

14. Yay!!!!

:eyes:

[sendero]

15. Phony numbers...

... there is no "recovery" when over 10% of the population is unemployed.

GDP is a farce, money changing hands back and forth is not "product".

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached
workers, plus total employed part time for
economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian
labor force plus all marginally attached workers.. July 2009 16.8%

[Bluenorthwest]

16. How can the same economists who failed to see the crisis coming

until the very day it became obvious to even John McCain claim to accurately predict the future at this point? They were very wrong, for very long, very recently. So please note my grain of salt.

[zipplewrath]

18. Separate stimulus from bailout

I'm curious how these folks separate the effects of the stimulus from the bailout. Both dumped large amounts of cash into the system. Quite honestly, the bailout dumped more, so far. Admittedly, they went to different purposes, but the predominate effect being described here is a end to the collapse, not a real improvement. Unemployment is still high and inventories on certain things are still high. Many banks are still critical. I'm not saying that we haven't pulled back from the brink. I'm just curious how one decides which set of cash was the most "stimulating".

[4dsc]

17. Plenty of jobs in North Dakota

I just the governor of ND claiming they cannot hire enough people and that jobs were a plenty up there..

[zipplewrath]

20. 650,000

Your talking about a state of 650,000 people. The govenor can't find workers cause there ain't anyone there.

[janx]

26. It varies a lot by state.

Some states got hit a lot harder than others.

[amandabeech]

27. Maybe he should advertise in the Detroit Free Press or the M-Live Booth papers.

Michiganders know snow and cold (more snow and less cold than you, however), and I bet some of them would move for a job.

Seriously.

[Wednesdays]

19. K&R, with one caveat

The caveat being, everyone should read DU's Stock Market Watch every day...they post a lot of articles that give a clearer picture of what's going on with the economy, and not everything is quite so rosy.

[Butch350]

25. It's gonna take as much time to revive the economy...

as it did to FIU!

[hunter]

28. And a day later: Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Declined in July...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4013159&mesg_id=4013159

Source: Bloomberg

By Timothy R. Homan

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in July as a boost from the cash-for-clunkers automobile incentive program failed to overcome cuts in other spending.

The 0.1 percent decrease in sales, the first drop in three months, followed a revised 0.8 percent gain in June that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles fell 0.6 percent, also more than anticipated.

[Vidar]

30. Recovery for the Wall Street thieves, crumbs for the people.