Swine flu is spreading even in summer

[steven johnson]

Source: Los Angeles Times

The pandemic H1N1 influenza virus is unexpectedly continuing to spread easily through the United States during the summer months, and health authorities expect a bump in transmission in about six weeks, when school goes back into session -- perhaps two or three months earlier than is normally seen with seasonal flu.

"Every year, there is an increase in flu when children go back to school" and viruses are being shared in close quarters, Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said Friday in a telephone news conference. "This year, it is already circulating in summer camps, military units and so forth, so we are expecting when school opens we will see increase."

Schuchat said she thinks the unusually high rate of transmission during the heat and humidity of summer, which normally sharply reduce transmission, may be because many Americans have no resistance to the virus from prior exposure. But there are "no data" to suggest why transmission is continuing, she said.

As of Friday, the CDC reported more than 40,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of the virus (commonly known as swine flu), 4,800 hospitalizations and 263 deaths. Experts believe more than a million Americans have been infected, however. Schuchat said the CDC would probably stop reporting cases soon because most people who are infected don't get tested.



Read more: http://mobile.latimes.com/inf/infomo;JSESSIONID=28B03E14B736F151195C.3147?view=page8&feed:a=latimes_1min&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=48127998&nopaging=1

[emilyg]

1. Thank you.

[NJmaverick]

50. Why are you thankful about this?

:shrug:

[emilyg]

60. Info.

Sometimes I don't have time to keep up with latest.

[virgogal]

2. "---most people who are infected don't get tested" I think I'll

stop worrying about this.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

4. And most people who get sick

just get sick, like with a cold, and recover. The number of fatalities in comparison to the number of reported cases doesn't look all that significant.

More people are still dead from the flu...................................

[lapfog_1]

19. World wide the death rate is .5 %

or 1 in 200 infections.

The CDC is predicting 30,000,000 cases in the US alone.

That's 150,000 deaths.

The death rate is steady even when just examining recent infections.

30 M is a very likely number, given that almost no one is resistant to this variant of H1N1.

That it is spreading even in the summer time is indicative of how virulent this flu is.

And the thing to really worry about is that it might mutate soon. The more it spreads, the greater the chance of a mutation that is even worse.

For all those who think this is nothing to be bothered with, no worse than any other flu, well...

[Tangerine LaBamba]

21. How do those numbers compare

to last season's flu?

[lapfog_1]

28. It's higher than the normal "flu"

which is to say, one of the more garden variety flu viruses.

But the big difference is WHO it's killing. Normal flu viruses kill off the elderly and compromised children and occasional adults with immune system problems. This one is killing more at random, even selecting perfectly healthy adults.

I'm not hitting the panic button, but this one is worth watching in the news.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. There are days I feel like doing this

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

Far less painful... than trying to educate some folks

[Tangerine LaBamba]

31. I agree - it's certainly worth watching -

that's without dispute.

I've read that many, if not most of the fatalities had other illnesses that made them susceptible, and that might be what's skewing the statistics regarding age. It seems to be hitting everyone, as you pointed out, but the sick ones are dying.

Even in this thread, there are people who got sick, fit the symptoms of the H1N1 flu, but have been told by their doctors not to bother coming in.

The one thing that has stuck with me is that Tamiflu has been found to make things a whole lot worse for people infected with this flu virus. That's alarming..................

[Robb]

48. Most managed care clinics ask you to stay home if you are contagious.

Unless you have a fever higher than X, or are faced with imminent danger of death (then they say to go to the ER).

Don't take any comfort in HMOs telling you to stay home, they do that with "regular" flu too. It's a numbers game, most will live. :(

[Tangerine LaBamba]

54. None of the people I referred to

were member of HMOs. Private physicians.

I don't know how you got HMO from my post, but it's good information................

[Robb]

63. LOL. I guess I assume everyone's on managed care these days.

:D Sorry.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

64. That's what we've come to, though -

your assumption made a whole lot of sense, and I should have been more explicit.

How badly does that suck?

:hi:

[NJmaverick]

52. 30,00-35,000 people die of flu in the US, every year

use that as a baseline comparison.

[Mojorabbit]

66. That is actually a made up number

used all the time.
This from the cdc
This estimate came from a 2003 study published in the Journal of the American Medication Association (JAMA), which looked at the 1990-91 through the 1998-99 flu seasons <10>. Statistical modeling was used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate was listed as a respiratory or circulatory disease.

and
Does CDC know the exact number of people who die from flu each year?

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from flu each year. There are several reasons for this: First, states are not required to report individual flu cases or deaths of people older than 18 years of age to CDC. Second, influenza is infrequently listed on death certificates of people who die from flu-related complications <12>. Third, many flu-related deaths occur one or two weeks after a person’s initial infection, either because the person may develop a secondary bacterial co-infection (such as a staph infection) <1,8,11> or because influenza can aggravate an existing chronic illness (such as congestive heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) <3>.

Also, most people who die from flu-related complications are not tested for flu, or they seek medical care later in their illness when influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples. Influenza tests are only likely to detect influenza if performed within a week after onset of illness. For these reasons, many flu-related deaths may not be recorded on death certificates. These are some of the reasons that CDC and other public health agencies in the United States and other countries use statistical models to estimate the annual number of flu-related deaths. (Flu deaths in children were made a nationally notifiable condition in 2004, and since then, states have been required to report flu-related child deaths in the United States through the Influenza Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System).
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

You would think with all the technology we have now we would have a more accurate measure of this sort of thing. The WHO announced they are stopping keeping record of numbers of cases and most countries have quit testing all but clusters and hospitalized cases. It seems a shame to me. With all the tools we have available in this day and age, for research purposes and for future generations this info would be great to know. Never before have we had such great communication technology or testing ability. It would be invaluable info for the future.

[NJmaverick]

69. That is information provided by the CDC

the only one making things up is you. Why you are doing that, could be interesting.

[Mojorabbit]

72. Yes and the cdc

is itself saying it is a made up number. Why I am doing what? I am a retired nurse with an interest in emerging infectious diseases. I have been following pandemic planning intently for the past five years.

[Hannah Bell]

74. it's an estimate, like the cdc's estimate of the number of cases, so i guess

they're all "made up" numbers.

[Mojorabbit]

83. I know it is an estimate. I posted the way they came up with it.

It is quoted as an absolute number in just about every flu article every year. It was devised from a few studies. It is altogether possible for the number to be way over or under as no one keeps track. Every year the same number is quoted.

[NJmaverick]

79. I don't think you understand the difference between an estimate

and a made up number. While you have been "following" pandemic planning, I am actually involved in the planning.

[Mojorabbit]

82. I understand that it is not a true number of actual counted cases

I have family members involved in the planning on a federal level and I have been involved in planning on a business level.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Expect usual crowd to make fun

but thank you.

[NJmaverick]

51. Why are you tnakful?

:shrug:

[emilyg]

61. Why are you a sour-puss?

[NJmaverick]

70. I work in public health and the last thing we need is ill informed

fear mongers trying to create a public panic for reasons unknown.

[emilyg]

71. I'm a nurse. I like all the info I might have missed. Peace.

[NJmaverick]

80. Did you miss this one?

At the current time, CDC estimates that the pandemic situation in the U.S. would be equivalent to a pandemic severity index of 2. (This would be most similar to the 1957 influenza pandemic, however, it’s uncertain how the current situation will evolve over the comingmonths so it’s not possible to make a predication about deaths at this time.)


* The PSI scale ranges from Category 1 to Category 5 and is comparable to the U.S. hurricane severity index. • Category 1 is the least severe and Category 5 is the most severe

[emilyg]

84. Thanks.

[KoKo]

5. Why is this of interest? The scare headlines?

:shrug: There's always a flu around. The constant attention seems to be some kind of hype or terror threat.

[Jake Stillow]

7. I agree. This was a very useless article

Absolutely no data for summer infections was provided. We are simply told that the virus is spreading easily, and we are to believe it blindly.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Here perhaps the CDC will be of education to you

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

Oh and welcome to DU... but before screaming IT IS TERRA... get the fucking information!

By the way, it is not spreading and it is just panic... but my nephew has it, the other one may get it too, you know kids.

:banghead:

[Jake Stillow]

53. Your nephew will be fine. Trust me

And nobody in my family has it. And thanks for the link but I was expecting a link to the statistics, not a link to the homepage of a page that may have statistics showing the upsurge.

[Hannah Bell]

75. why are you invariably personally rude to anyone who disagrees with you?

it's annoying.

[caseymoz]

33. I don't see it as a hype or terror threat.

I just think that worldwide communications have gotten to the point where the tracking of flu outbreaks can become common knowledge. People could then take measures to avoid it and slow the spread. (Which people will get better and better at the more such outbreaks are reported). I don't really see anybody panicking over this. It's just more news, and probably some of the most practical news.

[stray cat]

45. maybe you should check the CDC website- this is not flu season in the US

however knowing that requires basic biology which is in short supplies on political web sites.

[Skink]

6. I'd think in this case more people than usual are getting tested.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Actually no, my BIL called and they are not doing any of the testing

unless you get a fever above a certain point... you know triage.

The differential is cheap, but the actual test for H1N1 IS NOT

How do I know? I got it earlier in the summer, no testing, and they did not test the kids either

[KoKo]

10. It's costly to do testing. If you think you had it and recovered

then that's a good thing. If you were very ill, you might have been tested.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. If I did have it, well it was extremely mild

general malaise, light fever for two weeks and some coughing. My concern was the ashtma to be honest.

[KoKo]

12. My daughter was sick with something like that for two weeks...

not bad enough to go to the doctor she said...but just in general feeling lousy and coughing with slight fever. She's better now but two weeks seems long for a Summer cold.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. I called the triage nurse and asked if they wanted to test

for the sake of stats.

Nope, they have a protocol, but instructed, if it gets worst... fever spikes, the rest of it, don't think about waiting

[RayOfHope]

14. How high of a fever, did they say? n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. 103 I think

and given the costs of the tests makes some crazy sense

[RayOfHope]

16. Wonderful. I'm laying here with my 7 yo who just sprung a 103.5 fever out of nowhere

and has developed a runny nose and cough out of the blue. There's been an outbreak and some summer camp closing near us due to swine flu. (mods, don't delete, I'm not asking for med advice).

[CoffeeCat]

18. If i remember correctly, you are supposedt to take...

...a child into the doctor/ER if their temp is above 102.

I know you're not asking for advice, but you really should go to the doctor if she has a 103.5. Don't wait until morning.

There's no reason to panic. Your child's body is doing what it's supposed to do--fighting off a bug.

Take your child in and let the experts have a look at her.

[Tangerine LaBamba]

23. Kids spike fevers so fast,

and the fevers move fast.

Get the child to an ER - right now................

[Hissyspit]

17. If I had it, it was pretty rough. And it was summer (June).

Took three weeks overall to go through it. It came on rather slowly, though.

[Hannah Bell]

76. how do you know you "got it" when you weren't tested?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3975349&mesg_id=3975387

[MrsBrady]

42. right as this all started in the spring,

my husband got sick several days when coming back from Brownsville. He'd been there twice within two weeks.

He got sick as a dog for two-three days....then a few days later I was sick as a dog. Mine lasted a little longer than his.
I ended up having to go to the doctor as I developed a secondary sinus infection.

They didn't bother testing, didn't even care that we had had fevers....they did ask us if we had traveled....I did tell the nurse my husband had been to brownsville as was in the airport....
It was probably too late at that point to test, but the doctor didn't even mention it. Just typically threw an antibiotic at me and sent me on my way.

I don't think private health insurance would be willing to test for this anyway.
They didn't want to check for MRSA when my husband had that, but finally had to, eventually.
Seems like the same thing to me. Sometimes I think the Dr doesn't check for stuff if he's leery of getting paid....duh.

[Jake Stillow]

67. That's a great point, Skink

Good observation. MOre people may be going to the hospital to check.

[CoffeeCat]

20. So, for those of you who have had the Swine Flu...

...or know others that did--what it is like?

Do the symptoms come on slowly... or are you suddenly sick?

Are the symptoms pretty severe and what are the symptoms?

Thanks for any info.

On a side note, I was checking out at Target the other day, and a manager walks by and
says to the cashier, "Sorry you're not feeling well at all. I hope you feel better."

I look at the cashier and she's wiping her nose with a Kleenex and not looking very well.

Geez...this cashier had to touch every single thing I purchased, to scan it all. Then, I had
to stand within close proximity of her and take my change back from her. All while she was
sick!

This really pissed me off, and I usually am pretty good about shrugging things off.

I hope I don't get sick from the Target cashier!

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. I woke up with a headache

and a temp, mild

General malaise for the next two weeks and cough

But as I said, to me it was very mild, if it was that.

Hey I got my vaccine

:-)

[Hannah Bell]

77. you don't know you had swine flu.

[stray cat]

46. Suddenly - typical of influenza. I was out for a week and severe brochitis for 3 weeks

Its harder on the lungs - supposedly more invasive based on a recent scientific report but lacks the key virulence genes that would typically result in abnormally high mortality rates. One concern is it will sort genes with the typical influenza this fall because both will be prevalent at the same time and gain those genes.

Some don't get too sick, fever can vary, severe cough, chest congestion, severe fatigue, sometimes some weird symptoms - nausea, dizziness, disorientation, fainting or almost fainting. Respiratory distress if it occurs is a bad sign and one should then get help immediately.

[bluesmail]

22. Do a search 60 minutes 1976 swine flu documentary

This was televised once. It's relevant to what's happening today.

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. Except that in '76 it was CONTAINED at Ft Dix

and now it is in widespread all over the place and fits the definition of WHO for a pandemic.

Facts, I know, they are pesky at times

[Boddingham]

26. Have any "swine" been infected?

Just curious.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Actually YES... a few in Canada

the story ran about a month ago. They gave us swince, and they got H1N1 from their humans

Yes, that even ran on KO and was the FUNNY MOMENT OF THE WEEK story.

[Boddingham]

32. So, H1N1 is actually a human flu?

Or is there a bird part. I'm confused.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. It is animal in origin, as in piggy flu

piggies are very good factories. They gave it to us, and it started a while ago... Most times you get an animal flu in humans the human host may get very sick, but not infect others. But in time they mutate and they can go from human to human.

What happened here is that this went from piggy to human, where it achieved good transmission from human to human, a couple Canadian workers went to Mexico, where they got it and when they went back to the farm, the piggies got it. They went so far as to isolate that particular group until it ahem, ran its course.

:-)

And there might be some elements of bird in the H1N1, the reason, piggies are very good bug factories, as they can combine in their bodies human and bird flu.

[Boddingham]

35. Uh huh.

From pigs, to birds, to humans. Or was that from humans to pigs to birds. Wait, from birds to pigs to humans.

Oh shit, I'm confused, especially about this virus suddenly popping up in Mexico City. In the fucking Spring season. When and where flues never, ever have appeared before.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. No from pigs to humans and back to pigs

and there is influenza in Mexico City, yes even in the spring. I was there when that mess started. What got them going hmmm was the fact that they got an uptick in influenza cases when it usually they crash.

But try not to get distracted by the bird elements (they are there)

Here is the actual chain.

The pig to human on H1N1 started all the way back to 1999 IIRC in Texas, There were a few cases... as in very few. Mostly farm workers.

The flu continued to fester and mutate in the pigs, which kept giving it to a lucky few humans... in the end this actually went from pig to human and from human to human in a town in the State of Veracruz very near a Smithfield Farm, that raises pigs, which came from the States.

That is the part of the story that took CDC a little while to get together. So very technically it started in the US... and it also explains the very early infections this year in both Texas and California that did not have a mexico travel history.

But there is normal, garden variety, human flu, Influenza type B in Mexico.

[Boddingham]

39. Isn't the human element in this flu just like the Spanish flu?

?

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. Nobody is quite sure, and the reason is this

The samples we have in labs are from late in the infection, when it mutated into a very nasty strain.

Early on, like this one, it was very mild.


On the bright side if this stays this way and it has not shown signs of critical mutations, it will remain mild. But there are never guarantees, and quite brutally honest, we are overdue as a species for another round of animal sourced flu

Yes we get them every so often, the other three last century are 1957, wasn't piggy but was animal

1968 which was mild, relatively speaking

1976 which we dodged bullet, as it was actually contained at Ft. Dix... we just didn't know it.

[Hestia]

41. No, it's bird to swine to humans. Just read "The Great Influenza" - all flu's come from birds

[Mojorabbit]

36. And in Argentina reported yesterday. nt

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. So more piggies are getting sick too...

serves them right

:-)

[dgibby]

55. OMG!! This is HUGH! 11's. I'm Series!!11

One of our swine here in SC was in Argentina recently. Sure hope he didn't bring it back with him!:evilgrin: :rofl: And speaking of birds, sometimes, I Quack myself up!

[winyanstaz]

27. hmmm so why not make ALL school home schooling now?

Sounds like home schooling is the way to go. Sure would cut down on diseases. :)
Time to put school on all home computers:)

[davidpdx]

43. Crap, I was hoping this was die down a little over the summer

I'm traveling from Korea to visit home and worried when I come back they'll quarantine people. The Korean Government has been very strange about putting people in the hospital for two weeks even if they aren't sick. I hope I don't get on the plane with anyone who is sick on the way back.

[mainer]

44. Perhaps this is a good thing. Since it's still mild.

This may confer some level of immunity for them. If massive numbers of people get infected with the mild form, then we may have a level of herd immunity if the virus evolves into a far more deadly form.

[stray cat]

47. This is not swine flu - it is an assortment that contains human, swine and bird genes

influenza and sort genes - this cocktail of genes may allow the ability to infect humans and a better ability to obtain genes from bird flu. Bird flu is not spread human to human effectively but this may be an evolutionary step which will allow easier and rapid conversion.

[The Backlash Cometh]

49. Question, question! (Hand raised)

This is a math question: How many people have to get the swine flu, develop immunities to it, before the bell curve begins to drop on the rate of transmission?

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. Good q8uestion

that said, one million, CDC believes have gotten it so far... so we are not even near that point

The fall will be fun

[DeadEyeDyck]

56. this scares the shit out of me...

I work maintenance in a poultry plant until school starts (and then on weekends). I don't touch product directly but am still in contact with the residue. We were really concerned and still am with bird-flu.

Swine flu is still scarey. This seems to follow the 1917-18 pattern except that we now have 12 hr world wide transit and an extremely high population density.

[JanusAscending]

58. I call BULLSHIT!!!

the entire thing is contrived. I had the swine flu back in the early 60's, late 50's, and am still alive. Anything to scare the masses and make money for big pharma!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

59. Given that big pharma hates doing flu vaccines and I call bulshit on your story

you conceivably had it in 1957, and it wasn't swine by the way, and 1968, the Hong Kong Flu, which wasn't swine in origin either... neither of those two was a swine flu.

It was animal in origin, but not piggy.

Oh abd those two were mild compared to the 1918 which was swine flu, and if you told me 1976 I would have asked for your DD 214, as it was SUCCESFULLY contained at fort Dix.

I guess this conspiracy includes health authorities around the world and they made up the deaths in Mexico, the US, the UK and so forth?

[Hannah Bell]

62. second time you repeat the meme about vaccines being unprofitable bother for pharmacorps. Tiresome

First the bank bailout, now the repetitious hyping of swine flu. Do you own shares?


Swine flu shots to boost Baxter
Company reports 2nd-quarter profit increased by 13%, 2009 forecast raised
By Bruce Japsen | Tribune reporter
July 17, 2009

International demand for a swine flu vaccine is developing into a boon for Baxter International Inc.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-fri-baxter-swine-flu-0717-jul17,0,3826525.story



GlaxoSmithKline sees profits surge amid flu vaccine news
2006-07-26

British pharmaceutical group GlaxoSmithKline has said that its net profit jumped by 12.4 percent in the second quarter of 2006, after reporting a "breakthrough" in the development of a vaccine to protect humans against the H5N1 strain of bird flu. ... ...

http://lateline.muzi.net/news/ll/english/10015463.shtml?cc=46114&ccr=25405



Vaccine Industry Growing Amid Increased Funding, Higher Profits

Find other articles on: "influenz vaccine profits"
The Los Angeles Times on Sunday examined "a boom in vaccine discovery and development" prompted by advances in technology, "increased funding and higher profits."

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/61874.php

[Mojorabbit]

65. When every country in the world is ordering

it then it will be profitable. Whether than can roll it out in time remains highly uncertain.

[Hannah Bell]

68. bAxter is shipping vAccine this month. & no, it doesn't require "orders from every country in the

world" to generate profit.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-biz-baxter-earns-bax-july16,0,4264807.story

"Baxter said it would begin shipping dosages of swine flu vaccine around the world by the end of this month."

[Mojorabbit]

73. Baxter's vaccines are using a new technology

and it is not approved here yet.
Everything is up in the air for now on how the vaccines will be formulated.

Studies aim to answer key questions as world readies for swine flu vaccination

By Helen Branswell (CP) – 8 hours ago

TORONTO — A flurry of innovative vaccine trials is in the offing as governments and regulatory agencies prepare for the probable launch of mass swine flu vaccination programs in the fall.

The results of the trials could determine whether people with egg allergies can be offered pandemic (and regular) flu vaccine, whether pandemic and seasonal flu shots could be given at the same time and whether one company's vaccine can be given with another's adjuvant, a compound that boosts its potency.

Vaccine manufacturers are either unable or unlikely to undertake the complicated studies required to answer these questions. Governments will fund the work instead.

Infectious diseases expert Dr. Anthony Fauci says the goal here for organizations like the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases - which he heads - is to fill key knowledge gaps for vaccine regulators.

"What are they going to need that somebody else can't do?" Fauci explains.

Some of those priorities will be aired Thursday in Washington when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's vaccine and related biological products advisory committee meets in a session on clinical trials for pandemic vaccines.

Vaccine manufacturers will do the basic testing, work designed to assure regulators and would-be recipients that their vaccine is safe and likely to protect against the pandemic strain, an H1N1 virus of swine origin.

But there are many other key questions. In fact, the list is too long to tackle in its entirety in the limited time available.

So discussions between planners and regulators over the past few weeks have led to a paring down of priorities. In the case of the U.S., it's not yet clear which studies have survived the cut.

However, Fauci says his institute will green-light one looking at whether the pandemic vaccine - to protect against the new H1N1 virus - could be given at the same time as seasonal flu vaccine, which protects against three types of flu viruses including a different H1N1.
more
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jjg08BzfzBK0fa14Uko8sI-CF8IA

[Hannah Bell]

78. this info was in the article i linked.

[Mojorabbit]

81. No it was not.

I read your article, you did not read mine.