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(This is the "gloom-and-doom" side of the coin. There's the hopeful side, too, but I'll save that for later.)
Gas price increases are inevitable.
In the short term, the oil companies will do what they can to extract as much money from the consumers as possible. But averaging the prices over time, and comparing them to oil production, a very frightening process is emerging: we have hit the oil peak, and are now on the downslope of production.
The Saudis' oil production, even at 100%, is still down from levels in the late 1990s. They don't want to open the spigots too far, because they will put themselves out of the game that much earlier. Once Saudi oil's prices rise above market rates, they're finished, and the House of Saud packs up, moves to Europe, and leaves the broken husk of Arabia to the militants.
We (the world) have had, collectively, thirty years to prepare for this scenario. It's just about on top of us now, and our world has been taken over by oilmen who are intent on selling us a mess of pottage in exchange for our birthright terrestrial crude oil.
There's plenty we can do to reduce our dependancy on oil-based energy. But we won't do it.
• Going to an all-telecommuter white-collar job market would save a lot of gas, but it means that the managerial class would lose its sense of power.
• Manufacturing ultralight fiberglass-and-aluminum automobiles would save a lot, but such cars are not "sexy" enough for the buying public.
• Commercial aviation using modern dirigibles would save a huge amount of energy over jet aircraft, but it's a whole industry that would have to be built from the ground up, AND it's not "fast enough" for the Wheeling-and-Dealing Class.
• Mass transit would be a good idea, but all the tax incentives go to auto manufacturers and oil companies.
• High-efficiency appliances, lighting, climate control, manufacturing processes and electricity generation are all well-known technologies, but business is too averse to risk to even look into it.
• Community co-generation of energy has been studied, and found to be efficient, economic, and creates jobs. But it's bad for the oil business.
I'm certain that most of the people reading this (all five of you!) could add many more. But the big reason seems to be this one:
• An economy in a death-spiral allows the powerful to exercize their powers without the restraints of civil rights or the ideals of liberty and justice. Just the 9-11 disaster alone encouraged Team Bush to all but eliminate the Constitution; a jump in the price of crude from $35/bbl (now) to $150/bbl (or more) would lead to unimaginable consequences.
If you removed all the governmental price supports from the oil industry, the price of a gallon of gasoline would be upwards of $7 per gallon before taxes. I fully expect gasoline to approach $3 this summer, but not a hell of a lot more. An election is on, and the Commander-in-Thief needs his buddies to keep prices low so's he can win. But next winter? Well, let's think about springtime.
--bkl "Peak Oil" was so 2002!
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