STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday May 26

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday May 26, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 22, 2009

Dow... 8,277.32 -14.81 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq... 1,692.01 -3.24 (-0.19%)
S&P 500... 887.00 -1.33 (-0.15%)
Gold future... 958.90 +7.70 (+0.81%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.36 0.00 (-0.06%)
30-Year Bond 4.31 +0.00 (+0.02%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

What are Payrolls Telling Us About the Equity Market?
BY BRIAN PRETTI

I don’t know about you, but I’m getting pretty tired of the now incredibly overworked term “green shoots.” Oh well, every economic transition has to have a media tag line, right? It’s been quite a while since I’ve had a little roll through historical payroll numbers. Since April’s payroll numbers were a supposed “green shoot,” now’s the time, okay? To be honest, it’s not the payroll numbers and trends that’s the key issue per se, although it is very important to stay abreast of the factual data circumstances in which we find ourselves as opposed to unquestioningly slurping down the media tag line version of the facts. The much bigger issue of importance is trying to corroborate real economic activity to trends in the financial markets, specifically equities since they are the poster child locus of the perceptual green shoot garden. And from there we can importantly try to infer just what is driving financial asset prices – reality, the anticipation of a truly realistic reality yet to play out that the markets are indeed correctly discounting, or the perception of a reality to come that will ultimately turn out to be incorrect. That’s the key as I see it. So let’s get to the quick review of the numbers and trends, put the “green shoots” media sound bites into a realistic appraisal, and try to make some judgments about what is driving financial market prices of the moment.

....

It’s a good bet labor market conditions get “less bad” ahead, perhaps absent the near term influence of auto company related employment trauma in the forward months. It’s a decent bet the worst of nominal monthly payroll declines for this down cycle is behind us. But let’s be realistic. We have a lot as an economy to make up for in terms of job growth in the current decade. Since December 31, 1999, total payroll expansion in the US through April of this year is a gain of 1.2%. In no other decade of the last six was payroll growth less than 20%. Our current experience in the first decade of the new century has been an historical anomaly. Forget green shoots. Talk about an undershoot of historical proportions, this takes the cake. So as the markets attempt to discount a return to better times, the fact is that for this entire decade "better times" have never even gotten started in terms of macro job growth. As I've tried to document time and again, credit expansion was the plug factor that allowed US households to maintain their self appointed life styles for a time set against the reality of vacant job growth. So these are the "normal times" we're attempting to get back to as per current financial market green shoot outlook?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

09:00 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index Mar
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -18.4%
Prior -18.63%

10:00 Consumer Confidence May
Briefing.com 43.0
Consensus 42.0
Prior 39.2

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. May consumer confidence 54.9 vs 40.8 in April

U.S. May consumer confidence 54.9 vs 40.8 in April
10:01am Today

[UpInArms]

19. Consumers' confidence surges on brighter job view (huh?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumers-confidence-surges-on-brighter-job-view

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A reading on U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 54.9 in May from an upwardly revised 40.8 in April as expectations for jobs improved, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.

The gain is the fourth-largest in the 32-year history of the survey, and the index is at its highest level in eight months. Economists were expecting the index to hit 43.

"Expectations are that business conditions, the labor market and incomes will improve in the coming months," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. "While confidence is still weak by historical standards, as far as consumers are concerned, the worst is now behind us."

There was also a confidence surge in April.

For May, consumers' expectations rose to 72.3 from 51 as those expecting business conditions to improve rose to 23.1% from 15.7%, and those expecting more jobs rose to 20% from 14.2%. Consumers' appraisal of the present situation rose to 28.9 from 25.5, though many still view business conditions as "bad."

An improved economy is almost a "default" occurrence, given how tough times have been, wrote Dan Greenhaus with the equity strategy group at Miller Tabak, in a research note.

"Of course, whether better days materialize or not remains to be seen," Greenhaus wrote.

...more...

[skoalyman]

36. confidence surges on brighter job view

so bright I have to wear shades :rofl:

[neverforget]

37. I went shopping 3 times this weekend for various items at the mall

Target and Fryes. They were all dead and this was on Saturday and Sunday. Where are the confident consumers?

The stuff we bought was to replace some worn out items. It wasn't like we went and bought a new tv or anything.

[UpInArms]

18. Home prices still falling at record pace in first quarter - down 19.1% in the first quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-home-prices-still-falling-at-record-pace

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices fell a record 19.1% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday.

On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 2.2% in March and were down 18.7% in the past year.

"We see no evidence that a recovery in home prices has begun," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor's, which compiles the Case-Shiller index.

The continued declines in the Case-Shiller index are at odds with a similar price index published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which has increased the past two months. The FHFA index uses only conforming loans written or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In recent months, single-family housing starts, new-home sales and existing home sales appear to be stabilizing at very low levels. But some analysts are skeptical that the housing market has bottomed.

"We can cheer all the data under the sun but until prices stabilize, I imagine that no sustainable gain in the pace of sales will be seen," wrote Dan Greenhaus, equity strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. With inventories still very high, "downward pressure on home prices should continue for the foreseeable future."

Falling home values have helped to plunge the global economy into chaos because financial institutions made too many bad bets that U.S. home prices would never fall. Homeowners have lost trillions of dollars of wealth.

With prices still falling at a rapid pace, millions of homeowners are finding themselves owing more on their house than it is worth. They cannot sell for what they owe, and they cannot refinance their loan. They cannot borrow against their home to finance their consumption.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $61 as traders eye economic data

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $61 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors looked for signs of crude demand to justify the recent rally.

Benchmark crude for July delivery was down $1.09 to $60.58 a barrel by midafternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange from Friday, when the contract settled up 62 cents to $61.67. Trading in the U.S. was closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

....

Traders will be looking at fresh evidence of the health of the U.S. economy when a consumer confidence index for May and reports on sales of existing and new homes last month are released this week.

Some investors are optimistic that gasoline prices that are a third lower than last year will boost demand during the U.S. summer vacation period, which runs from late May to early September.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery fell 2.83 cents to $1.81 a gallon and heating oil dropped 2.45 cents to $1.51 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery slid 8.0 cents to $3.44 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. Hottest Oil Options Show 16% Drop as Demand Falls (Update1)

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- After oil passed $60 a barrel for the first time in six months, the New York Mercantile Exchange’s fastest-growing options trade in July is for a 16 percent drop.

The number of options to sell oil at $50 a barrel for July settlement rose 22 percent last week to 24,948. Traders expect prices to fall because U.S. crude inventories are 1.8 percent below the highest in two decades, and the International Energy Agency says demand is falling the most since 1981. There’s enough unsold crude stored in offshore tankers to supply the U.S. for a week, and oil fell below $60 today in New York.

Crude jumped as high as $62.26 a barrel on May 20 on optimism that the worst of the global recession and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut supplies by the most on record. Now, economic reports are increasing speculation that the world economy will continue to sputter, and OPEC, which meets May 28 in Vienna, has yet to complete the supply curbs it promised in December.

....

The number of contracts to sell July oil at $50 a barrel, or so-called put options, tripled to 24,948 on May 21 from May 7, according to Nymex data. The second most-popular contract for July settlement is the right to sell at $40, with 23,254 outstanding. There are almost twice as many positions that profit if oil falls as low as $40 a barrel as there are bets on a rise to $70.

....

Industry-held inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development were 2.75 billion barrels in March, 6.7 percent more than a year earlier, according to the Paris- based IEA. As much as 130 million barrels are stored offshore on 65 supertankers each the size of New York’s Chrysler Building awaiting buyers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=am1tRsWVbKe4&refer=uk

[Tansy_Gold]

30. Okay. And so this means that even the speculators are speculating. . ..

that demand is gonna drop so far and supply is gonna rise so far that the price is gonna drop no matter what they do to prevent it? Is that it?


Tansy Gold, who still really doesn't understand all this shit.

[Demeter]

31. It's Not Understandable Precisely BECAUSE It's Shit

The lying continues, and the delusion, and the hope hasn't been kicked out of the speculators yet.

[ozymandius]

4. Crunch time looms for GM, Chrysler restructuring

DETROIT/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – United Auto Workers' officials will gather on Tuesday to hear how many more U.S. factory jobs GM will cut as the embattled automaker enters what could be its last week outside bankruptcy.

Union officials representing 54,000 General Motors Corp workers are scheduled to meet in Detroit to prepare for a quick ratification vote on a cost-cutting labor deal negotiated last week. The union aims to complete those votes by Thursday.

Approval of the contract, which would change payment terms on $20 billion owed to a UAW trust fund, represents one of the hurdles for GM to clear before a June 1 deadline set by the Obama administration.

....

GM will also learn on Wednesday how much of its $27 billion in bond debt was tendered in exchange for shares. GM has set a target of slashing 90 percent of its bond debt, a goal analysts see as unreachable.

....

Bankruptcy Judge Arthur Gonzalez could rule as early as Wednesday on whether Chrysler will be allowed to sell its most valuable assets to a new company that would be under the operational control of Italy's Fiat SpA.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090526/bs_nm/us_autos

[ozymandius]

6. Rising Job Losses = Rising Foreclosures

“We’re about to have a big problem. Foreclosures were bad last year? It’s going to get worse.”

-Morris A. Davis, a real estate expert at the University of Wisconsin.

This is a theme I have been hammering on for some time: As more people lose their jobs, we will see increasing foreclosures, adding further stress to banks’ already ugly balance sheets.

As the New York Times notes, the number of prime mortgages that were “delinquent at least 90 days, were in foreclosure or had deteriorated to the point that the lender took possession of the home” jumped enormously as job losses accelerated. Over the period when BLS was reporting 500k plus job losses a month, from November’08 to February ‘09, the numbers of distressed properties “increased more than 473,000, exceeding 1.5 million.” Total loan value = more than $224 billion. (Sources: The Times, First American CoreLogic).

....

What this means, for those of you still paying attention, is that we will see lower RE prices, more bank stress, a lot more distressed sales, and no normalization of RE markets for some time.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/job-losses-foreclosures/

[OneBlueDotBama]

7. I had to double check...lol STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday May 26

feels like Monday...but alas it's...... be well, smile and have a wonderful day and thank you for your work.

[Dr.Phool]

11. If it feels like Monday, it must be Monday!

We'll let Oz slide on this one.

He was probably just trying to start our week off with a grin.

:rofl: :applause:

[ozymandius]

26. I love playing the fool.

I spoke with my old high school art teacher over the weekend. We were friends before high school and have been friends ever since. So the teacher-student era is now a minor blip considering the decades we've known each other. This vast amount of time also imparts an understanding of each one's slightly odd sense of humor.

So he asks me how teaching is working out for me:

I tell him, "Fine. Love it. Just so much electronic surveillance these days than when I came through school."

"You know that's for your protection," he quips.

"Sure, I know that. It just makes things trickier."

"Trickier?" he asks.

"To give you an example: Back in the old days, when someone would shut their locker in a hurry and leave a few inches of sleeve hanging out the locker door, someone could walk by with a scissors and snip the thing off with no trouble at all."

His hand goes to forehead. Chest starts shuddering.

"These days - I can't do that without getting arrested."

Swallows tongue.

I love old friends. They are not likely to call the cops because they know when you're telling a joke.

[ozymandius]

25. Final days of the school year. Fuggit. I'm tired.

Rest assured the correct day will be posted tomorrow.

:hi:

[AnneD]

28. I need a radio flyer.....

to drag my butt around these days. Kids are out Wednesday and we are out Thursday....Hurray. I know you are happy too Ozy.

[Demeter]

32. Tonight Is Prom Night for the Disabled

unbeknownst to me, since I scheduled the dentist for this morning. Been as busy as a cat or dog with two tails.

[AnneD]

35. Gotz to get on that MOM....

bet that is a fun one. I love my Sped students. They generally don't sweat stuff. Don't know the lyrics to the play song---just sing what you know with more enthusiasm. They taught me a lot ;)

[Festivito]

8. Debt: 05/21/2009 11,305,673,498,034.18 (UP 20,211,455,584.57) (Debt up.)

(The weekday lull fulfilled, the Friday dump comes back with a medium sized rise. Not even worth hiding. Hope everyone had a wonderful Memorial day weekend. I goofed on the number of people in the country which has switched from one every 14 seconds to 12 seconds. Must be Monday. Oops. Tuesday the first day of the workweek this week.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,999,368,863,588.18 + 4,306,304,634,446.00
UP 16,742,591,292.36 + UP 3,468,864,292.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,479,942 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $36,888.79.
A family of three owes $110,666.36. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,100,634,347.92.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,740,465,188.47.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 84 reports in 121 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.03B$ per report, 0.12B$/day so far.
There were 159 reports in 233 days of FY2009 averaging 8.06B$ per report, 5.50B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,340 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/21/2009 11,305,673,498,034.18 BHO (UP 678,796,449,121.10 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,280,948,601,121.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----
05/07/2009 +027,679,213,817.18 ------------**********
05/08/2009 -000,216,334,016.92 ---
05/11/2009 -000,029,759,155.68 ---- Mon
05/13/2009 -000,207,515,478.68 ---
05/14/2009 +013,927,016,419.76 ------------**********
05/15/2009 +013,064,365,189.63 ------------**********
05/18/2009 -000,012,816,531.74 ---- Mon
05/19/2009 +000,244,659,127.63 ------------********
05/20/2009 +000,422,183,214.17 ------------********
05/21/2009 +016,742,591,292.36 ------------**********

147,891,424,564.05 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,641,041,694,775.11 in last 245 days.
That's 1,641B$ in 245 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 161% of that highest year ever only in 245 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 245 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3888866&mesg_id=3889020

[Festivito]

29. Debt: 05/22/2009 11,301,675,926,828.94 (DOWN 3,997,571,205.24) (Debt up 7B$.)

(Not much of a change. Debt rises a bit, the FICA debt (owed to us the people) fluxuates down.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,999,376,165,569.64 + 4,302,299,761,259.30
UP 7,301,981.46 + DOWN 4,004,873,186.70

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,487,142 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $36,874.88.
A family of three owes $110,624.63. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,028,116,489.64.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,687,285,425.74.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 85 reports in 122 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.05B$ per report, 0.08B$/day so far.
There were 160 reports in 234 days of FY2009 averaging 7.98B$ per report, 5.46B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,339 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/22/2009 11,301,675,926,828.94 BHO (UP 674,798,877,915.86 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,276,951,029,916.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----
05/07/2009 +027,679,213,817.18 ------------**********
05/08/2009 -000,216,334,016.92 ---
05/11/2009 -000,029,759,155.68 ---- Mon
05/13/2009 -000,207,515,478.68 ---
05/14/2009 +013,927,016,419.76 ------------**********
05/15/2009 +013,064,365,189.63 ------------**********
05/18/2009 -000,012,816,531.74 ---- Mon
05/19/2009 +000,244,659,127.63 ------------********
05/20/2009 +000,422,183,214.17 ------------********
05/21/2009 +016,742,591,292.36 ------------**********
05/22/2009 +000,007,301,981.46 ------------******

68,551,222,594.08 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,637,044,123,569.87 in last 246 days.
That's 1,637B$ in 246 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 161% of that highest year ever only in 246 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 246 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3892824&mesg_id=3892871

[DemReadingDU]

9. FDIC Insurance Increase Extended to 2013

5/22/09

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency of the United States government that protects the funds depositors place in FDIC-insured institutions. FDIC deposit insurance is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Since the FDIC was established in1933, no depositor has ever lost a single penny of FDIC-insured funds.

There is no need for depositors to apply for FDIC insurance or even to request it; coverage is automatic. FDIC insurance covers funds in deposit accounts, including checking and savings accounts, money market deposit accounts and certificates of deposit. FDIC insurance does not cover other financial products that insured banks may offer, such as stocks, bonds, mutual fund shares, life insurance policies, annuities or municipal securities.


The standard insurance amount currently is $250,000 per depositor. The $250,000 limit is permanent for IRAs and other certain retirement accounts. The $250,000 limit is temporary for all other deposit accounts through December 31, 2013. On January 1, 2014, the standard insurance amount will return to $100,000 per depositor for all account categories except IRAs and other certain retirement accounts, which will remain at $250,000 per depositor.


To ensure funds are fully protected, depositors should understand their coverage limits. The FDIC provides separate coverage for deposits held in different account ownership categories. The coverage limits shown in the chart below refer to the total of all deposits that an accountholder has in the same ownership categories at each FDIC-insured institution. The chart below assumes that all FDIC requirements are met (for details on the requirements, go to www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits).

FDIC Deposit Insurance Coverage Limits (Through December 31, 2013) 1
Single Accounts (owned by one person) $250,000 per owner
Joint Accounts (two or more persons) $250,000 per co-owner
IRAs and other Certain Retirement Accounts $250,000 per owner
Revocable Trust Accounts $250,000 per owner per beneficiary up to 5 beneficiaries (more coverage is available with 6 or more beneficiaries subject to specific limitations and requirements)
Corporation, Partnership and Unincorporated Association Accounts $250,000 per corporation, partnership or unincorporated association
Irrevocable Trust Accounts $250,000 for the non-contingent, ascertainable interest of each beneficiary
Employee Benefit Plan Accounts $250,000 for the non-contingent, ascertainable interest of each plan participant
Government Accounts $250,000 per official custodian

You can calculate your insurance coverage using the FDIC's Electronic Deposit Insurance Estimator at www.myFDICinsurance.gov. For questions about FDIC coverage, visit call toll-free 1-877-ASK-FDIC or ask a representative at your bank.

1 Unlimited deposit insurance coverage is available through December 31, 2009, for non-interest bearing transaction accounts (as defined in 12 C.F.R Part 370) at institutions participating in the FDIC’s Transaction Account Guarantee Program.

http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/DIfactsheet.html

[UpInArms]

10. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.681 Change +0.657 (+0.85%)

US Dollar Plunges Into Oversold Levels, Signals Potential for Reversal

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Plunges_Into_Oversold_1243031563344.html

The US dollar was easily the weakest of the majors last week, which was interesting in light of the fact that US equities and the CBOE’s VIX volatility index ended virtually unchanged, albeit with some rocky price action in between. Indeed, if there were any signs that US assets were losing their status of “safe havens,” it was this: After Standard & Poor’s downgraded the outlook for the UK from “stable” to “negative” due to their “deteriorating public finances,” ballooning national debt in the US spurred speculation that the same could happen to their economic outlook, if not their long-term credit rating altogether. In fact, the US dollar decline was in lockstep with a plunge in Treasury prices, highlighting a drop in demand for all things dollar-related. However, given the extent of the greenback’s decline, this coming week should be very interesting. Will the US dollar go back to trading in line with risk trends, gaining with other low-yielding currencies, or will it trade as the one of the “riskiest” assets out there? Since the DXY index is well into oversold levels, technical factors suggest that the dollar could bottom in the near-term. As they say though, “the trend is your friend,” so traders should be cautious.

This week’s US economic calendar is chocked full of releases. On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for the month of May is forecasted to continue rising from its record low of 25.3 reached in February up to 43.0. With record keeping having begun in 1967, the steady plunge in sentiment from the 2007 highs of 111.90 makes the extent of the recession especially clear.

On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is anticipated to report that existing home sales rose 2.0 percent in April to an annual pace of 4.66 million from 4.57 million. However, there are indications that the results could prove to be disappointing as the Commerce Department reported on May 19 that housing starts plunged by 12.8 percent during the month of April, and a whopping 54.2 percent from a year earlier, to a record low annual pace of 458,000.

On Thursday, the release of US durable goods orders are projected to show that domestic demand may have increased slightly at the start of Q2, as they are forecasted to have risen 0.5 percent in April, but excluding transportation the index is anticipated to fall 0.3 percent. While the headline result will have the most impact on forex trading, the markets should keep an eye on non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, as this number serves as a leading indicator for business investment. The three-month annualized figures remain deeply negative, but the monthly component has improved over the past two months and a continuation of this dynamic would be supportive of outlooks for a slow recovery in the US economy.

Finally, on Friday, the second round of US Q1 GDP estimates are due to hit the wires, and the results could be market-moving. The preliminary reading is forecasted to be revised up to -5.5 percent from -6.1 percent, which also marks an improvement when compared to the Q4 2008 result of -6.3 percent. There is some evidence that revisions will be to the downside, though. First, the US trade deficit widened for the first time in eight months during March by 5.5 percent to $27.6 billion. A breakdown of the report showed that exports slumped 2.4 percent to a more than two-year low of $123.62 billion while imports fell 1.0 percent to $151.196 billion. According to Bloomberg News, the Commerce Department used a much larger increase in exports when calculating Q1 GDP, suggesting that initial estimates of a 6.1 percent annual contraction may have been optimistic. Also, personal consumption is forecasted to be adjusted to 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent after March advance retail sales were revised down to -1.3 percent from -1.1 percent.



...more...

Euro, Pound Sunk by Dimming Outlook For A Recovery and Heightened Geopolitical Risks On North Korea Actions

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro__Pound_Sunk_by_Dimming_1243331785674.html

The Euro has steadily declined during post holiday trading as weak fundamental data and increasing risk aversion and the North Korean Nuclear test have combined to dragged the EUR/USD below the 5/22 low of 1.3888. Indeed, the final German GDP reading remained unchanged at -6.1% as the country experienced its deepest quarterly contraction on record. A drop in exports which fell 9.7% was the main driver of the economic downturn as global demand continues to be impacted by the credit crunch. However, the decline was revised higher from initial estimates of -11.7% which combined with the unexpected 0.5% increase in private consumption provides some hope that the economy is stabilizing. Meanwhile, industrial new orders in March unexpectedly fell -0.8% against expectations for a 0.8% gain.

The decline in activity in the Euro-zone ends the trend of improving data for the region and could be a sign that any form of growth could be a ways off for the region. In Germany, the region’s largest economy, a steeper than expected 7.9% decline in capital investment will make it difficult for the country to realize any short-term domestic growth and considering the dearth of global demand we could see the current recession prolonged. Indeed, there has been some talk that the German government may be looking at a third stimulus package despite Chancellor Merkel insisting in that enough has been done to end the recession. The appears that it will remain under pressure which could lead to a test of support at 1.3810the 38.2% Fibo level of the 1.3422-1.4050 advance.

The pound has also been under pressure as it has felt the impact of declining confidence in a global recovery and the increased geopolitical risks. Indeed, North Korea is reported to have launched two more missiles following yesterday’s initial nuclear test which has been met with outrage by global leaders. Remarks from BoE member Andrew Sentence that it is too early to look for signs of growth has also added to the pound bearish sentiment. The committee member said that "We have to get to a point where the economy stops contracting before it begins to recover."The GBPO/UD would reach as low as 1.5777 before finding some brief support. The 5/22 low of 1.5756 could slow its momentum but a retrace back to the 200-Day SMA at 1.5535 is a strong possibility.

The dollar has been supported throughout the overnight session on the heightened geopolitical risks and a declining outlook for a global recovery. The economic docket may not have a top tier release on tap, but the combination of housing, manufacturing and sentiment data could impact price action if they combine to tell the same story. The S&P/Case Schiller indicator for home prices un the top 20 U.S. cities is expected to show that the rate of decline for values continues to slow from -18.63% to -18.40%. A stabilizing housing market combined with the expected improvement in consumer confidence from 39.2 to 42.6 and a pick up in manufacturing activity in the Richmond and Dallas regions should raise the outlook for a U.S. economic recovery. Therefore, we could see the dollar start to lose ground as risk appetite remains strong. However, be aware the closer that we get to a rebound in growth we should start to see the greenback’s correlation to risk dwindle.

...more...

[Demeter]

12. Good Morning Marketeers!

I hosted a barbecue for 6 hours at the condo yesterday, and judging by the sunburn, I was the main course! It was a great success. The weather was nearly perfect, and people actually came and had a good time with live musical entertainment by some of our neighbors.

Proving that given no obstacles, I can still do something productive....
reassurance badly needed in everyday life.

Hope this week turns out to be healing for the nation. But not counting on it. Will the announced appointment to Supreme Court move the markets, do you think?

[Tansy_Gold]

13. Who cares if it moves the market? Real question is. . . ..

will it move the ECONOMY.





TG, thinking it probably won't

[Dr.Phool]

14. Somebody obviously passed out some good Happy Pills.

Market was down 20, and I came back 30 minutes later, and it's up 150.

On what?

[Pale Blue Dot]

15. Consumer phoney-baloney confidence.

The propaganda campaign has worked - for now.

[Dr.Phool]

16. I guess when you don't have any policies worth a shit.

Or no jobs for people. Happy talk will save the day. No matter what is taking place in the real world.

[Hugin]

20. Didn't someone mention over the weekend that...

"We don't have any money?" :shrug:

Where's the market reaction to that tidbit?

[Demeter]

33. Ain't NOthing Gonna Move this Economy

As Dr. McCoy would say: "It's dead, Jim."

[TheWatcher]

21. It's Just Pure Comedy At This Point.

There is NOTHING fundamental in the economic environment that justifies this kind of a move, and after all the news last week, a number like 54.2 (While probably completely phony in itself) is still completely horrible, and not a sign of good news, and certainly no catalyst or justification for this kind of move either.

This is pure, artificial manipulation, just like the whole rally has been.

If my guess is correct, they won't be able to move it past the trading range they have set that is between 8200 and 8550. This will be another "Ramp And Camp" day, or it will slightly fizzle out toward the end of the afternoon, like any decent buzz does.

This is all a complete joke, and any thinking person who can reason knows it.

I mean, all one has to do is look at THIS chart, and figure out that this is artificial. Take a good look at the time when the Propaganda Piece came out, and look a the move:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_YM.M09.E

I believe it speaks for itself.



If you look at the rest of the news that came out this morning, it MORE than makes the phony "Consumer Confidence" number irrelevant:

S&P: Home prices fall by record 19.1 percent in 1Q

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-Home-prices-fall-by-apf-15344712.html;_ylt=AupE3kdaRO3z4gPHY8Ne.Ve7YWsA?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

As we read over the weekend GM Bankruptcy is ALL but a GIVEN at this point.


Make-or-break week for GM as deadline nears

Make-or-break week for GM as deadline nears to restructure or seek bankruptcy protection

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Makeorbreak-week-for-GM-as-apf-15343356.html?sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Nikon to slash 1,000 jobs amid looming loss

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nikon-to-slash-1000-jobs-amid-apf-15343231.html?sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

(It's no surprise the Stock is way up because Wall Street gets erotically aroused when the common people suffer)

What this week is probably going to be about is more Propaganda, Misdirection, and Distraction as they prepare and condition the Public for the GM News next week, which I believe will be Bankruptcy.

ALL of the news that has anything to do with anything TANGIBLE or FUNDAMENTAL in the economy is ALL BAD and shows signs that things are still deteriorating.

And although The Propaganda Blitz has become so childish, so absurd, so obvious, that even an infant could figure out what is really going on, the scary thing is THIS IS ALL THEY HAVE LEFT. They have sold THE ULTIMATE BILL OF GOODS to The Public, and if they don't keep pumping it, this whole thing is going to collapse.

My advice is to keep your Powder Dry, your Food Supplies well-stocked, and your eyes and ears OPEN.

Because there is no way they can sustain this indefinitely.

There IS NO GROWTH.

There IS NO RECOVERY.

There is only The ILLUSION of one.

Besides, like Hugin mentioned above, The Messiah quietly let the Cat Out Of The Bag over the weekend that we are basically "Broke", and "We're Out Of Money."

"Confidence" which is the theme of this latest ridiculous move is a lot like a good alcohol buzz or another good high from a controlled substance.

It's good for an illusory, temporary euphoric state where it seems nothing could be better, but REALITY sets in sooner or later, wiping the fantasy away.

[Ghost Dog]

22. British banks revolt against Obama tax plan

British banks and stockbrokers may refuse to take on American clients if new international tax proposals outlined by President Obama are passed.

...

The decision, which would make it hard for Americans in London to open bank accounts and trade shares, is being discussed by executives at Britain's banks and brokers who say it could become too expensive to service American clients. The proposals, which were unveiled as part of the president's first budget, are designed to clamp-down on American tax evaders abroad. However bank bosses say they are being asked to take on the task of collecting American taxes at a cost and legal liability that are inexpedient.

Andy Thompson of Association of Private Client Investment Managers and Stockbrokers (APCIMS) said: "The cost and administration of the US tax regime is causing UK investment firms to consider disinvesting in US shares on behalf of their clients. This is not right and emphasises that the administration of a tax regime on a global scale without any flexibility damages the very economy it is trying to protect."

...

President Obama's proposals are built on the so-called Qualified Intermediary system which was intended to ensure Americans paid the correct tax wherever they were domiciled. Foreign financial institutions that handle American money have to fill in a US tax form on behalf of the client that has to be audited too. In return, the banks receive a QI seal of approval as a qualified intermediary.

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/5374095/British-banks-revolt-against-Obama-tax-plan.html

[Demeter]

34. Good!

Cry me a river, UK.

[TheMachineWins]

23. I don't know or even know of 1 single "consumer" who is more confident

and the markets are doing "the fascist float", proving beyond the shadow of a doubt that it's pure lies. I read that Sen. Levin plans on regulating and enforcing the regs on hedge funds by the end of 2009. Maybe at that point America will be able to return to "free" markets.

[Robbien]

24. Affluent Less Concerned About Economy

Among the highest income group, households with incomes of $200,000 or more, the economy only ranked third among concerns, according to Ipsos Mendelsohn. Corrpution and scandals was the chief worry for people in this group, followed by “moral decline.”

Three areas of concern rose in prominence from winter to spring, according to the firm. Moral decline was cited as a concern by 26% of respondents in spring, compared to 19% in winter. Corruption and financial or political scandals went from 16% to 25% and immigration from 8% to 14%.

The economy was cited as a concern by 46% of affluent respondents, followed by health care at 31% and unemployment and jobs at 28%, according to the online survey by Ipsos Mendelsohn.
Those were the same top concerns cited by the affluent in the firm’s winter survey, but the number of people reporting these as concerns declined in the spring survey.

In the winter survey, 60% were concerned about the economy, 33% were concerned about health care and 32% were concerned about unemployment, according to Ipsos Mendelsohn.

http://www.fa-mag.com/fa-news/4173-affluent-less-concerned-about-economy-survey-says.html


Appears the rich people have had enough with all the gloomy gus business and are ready to party.

[AnneD]

27. What the news....

Gold and silver really jumped today. Fed presses double ordered paper and ink?