Earth almost put on impact alert

[windansea]

By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC News Online science editor

No one was quite sure at the beginning where 2004 AS1 was headed
Astronomers have revealed how they came within minutes of alerting the world to a potential asteroid strike last month.
Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object, later designated 2004 AS1, had a one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours.

It could have caused local devastation and the researchers contemplated a call to President Bush before new data finally showed there was no danger.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3517319.stm

[mouse7]

1. NOOOOOOO!

That means the cable movie channels will schedule "Armegeddon" back in heavy rotation again.

We're DOOOOOOOOOMED!

[mhr]

38. That's All We Need More Excuses For "Terra" Alerts

Prepared remarks for immediate release from the Oval Office

"My fellow Americans,

I am the war time president.

We are fighting terra on all domestic and international fronts.

And now GOD has decided to fight us as well.

Despite repeated conference calls, he insists on showering the earth with asteroids that place all of us in peril.

The state department is trying to resolve the impasse and can only conclude that we are not killin muslims fast enough and that gay marriages are an abomination.

Consequently, I have ordered the elimination of all muslims in afganistan and iraq with phased detonations of nucular bombs.

Additionally, I have proposed a new amendment banning all same sex marriages. All members of congress unwilling to support this amendment will be executed.

Rest assured that we will continue to work with GOD to resolve our differences. Also rest assured that we will not bend to GOD's will without a fight.

If GOD continues to be a source of terra, we will fight him as well.

Thank you and good night."

[IndianaGreen]

2. They should have played it safe and alerted everyone!

The bad thing about such a strike by an object that size is that it would make everyone believe if was a huge H-bomb! GAWD help us if Bush or Putin were to launch their missiles in the mistaken belief their respective countries were attacked.

[jamesinca]

29. You don't need to cause a panic

With 36 hours they could evacuate the area, they could put the coastal towns on alert for tidal waves. Remember 2/3 of the planet is water so odds are it would not have hit a human populated area.

From the tin foil hat point of view, let it happen and we have justification for the war on terror.

[windansea]

31. calculating the impact point on earth not easy

even with an object with a known orbit

in this case it was an unknown object and had it been on a collision course it would be tought to predict exact impact point

[Nihil]

36. True

> in this case it was an unknown object and had it been on a
> collision course it would be tough to predict exact impact point

Besides which it is an irregular object with unknown weaknesses that
could fragment into any number of smaller objects and so achieve a
reasonable scatter across a wide area. Even a 3 metre chunk of rock
could really spoil your day if it lands in your neighbourhood at that
speed.

Personally, I don't think the astronomers should warn ANYONE unless
there is a large amount of time (like weeks) - in which case they
should warn EVERYONE, not just a few privileged scumbags at the top.

The last thing this planet needs is for the likes of Dick Cheney to
scuttle into his bunker and survive the impact to emerge after a few
months to take charge again.

Nihil

[htuttle]

3. Dammit, people!

Nature went to the trouble to evolve us opposable thumbs for a reason!

Stop with all this ancient mammalian crap, and figure out how to stop the big damn rocks from hitting the planet again!

[DavidDvorkin]

4. First they'd have to explain to Bush what an asteroid is

Imagine that conversation!

[smirkymonkey]

6. Didn't he have a problem with asteroids

when he was supposedly in the Texas Air National Guard?? I think his doctor's reports mentioned something about them.

[Crachet2004]

9. ummm, I think they said "hemmorroids"...

and I believe they said he had one removed...proobably why he walks like he has a poker up his ass...but most republicans seem anal retentive to me.

[smirkymonkey]

11. I know, I was just kidding...

asteroids are those little strong white mints in the tin box.

[Ganja Ninja]

40. They didn't get them all.

They left one between his shoulders.

[Neshanic]

19. Ok, remember when you dropped your dog Mr. President?

[Drifter]

44. Mr. President ... America is being threatened by an asteriod ...

AWOL: Can we link it to Al-queida
No sir ... it is an asteriod.
AWOL: How can we link this to Syria ... or Iran.
Sir ... It is an asteriod ... A Big Fucking Rock From Outspace.
AWOL: Democrats are soft on asteriods ... aren't they.

Cheers
Drifter

[prodigal_green]

62. Drifter--you owe me a keyboard

"AWOL: Democrats are soft on asteroides...aren't they?"

You owe me a new keyboard--just blew diet Pepsi all over it.

[gulfcoastliberal]

5. Wow

We should spend more to look for these threats. We're probably "overdue" for some humongous asteroid to smash into the earth and destroy all life as we know it. These asteroid warning are always a bit disconcerting.

[windansea]

7. yes we should

every million or so years we get hit with an ELE (extinction level event) and every 100,000 or so we get hit by one big enough to cause serious damage...we are "due" for a 100,000 year hit and the resources spent on this are laughable

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20040224-0001-ca-defendingearth.html

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

10. good riddance to the human rubbish. the planet needs a rest

I, for one, think an ELE would be a good thing. Maybe whoever survives (if any) will get it right next time.

[windansea]

14. yikes

then nobody could jump ur scooter anymore

[iam]

39. Hey man,

you're talking about my children.

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

74. My children too. I know the personal loss is hard to get over

but, I am really not too keen on hope for the larger picture anymore.

[Drifter]

45. Don't bet on it ...

Roaches could survive nuclear holocost, and probably an asteriod hit.

That's all Earth needs ... nothing but Republicans running around.

Cheers
Drifter

[lebkuchen]

24. It's only been since 1993 that we had proof impact was a real possibility

...when we watched the Shoemaker-Levy comet impact with Jupiter. Who knows the number of asteroids which have fallen out of their orbit and are on a collision course with us. We've hardly begun to map our solar system w/regard to asteroids. When you consider the time wasted with the first moon launch, w/our sole purpose of winning a race w/the Russians when there was a tremendous opportunity for research, it shows how little man has evolved intellectually.

[DuctapeFatwa]

8. Which is why there will be no warning. If anything, a leaked story that

will be immediately dismissed as a "tinfoil hat conspiracy theory," or an "oh yeah, well Al Jazeera says that, so pfft"

[displacedvermoter]

13. Clinton's Penis is a Powerful Thing

n/t

[windansea]

12. the odds...............

Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000


Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year:

1 in 1,820

From intentional self-harm:

1 in 9,380

From an assault: 1 in 16,421

From a car accident: 1 in 18,585

From any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666

From accidental drowning:

1 in 79,065

From exposure to smoke, fire,

and flames: 1 in 81,524

In an explosion: 1 in 107,787

From exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107

In an airplane accident:

1 in 354,319

From choking on food:

1 in 370,035

In a terrorist attack while visiting

a foreign country: 1 in 650,000

In a fireworks accident:

1 in 1,000,000

From overexertion, travel or

privation: 1 in 1,428,377

From food poisoning:

1 in 3,000,000

From legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325

From contact with hot tap water:

1 in 5,005,564

From parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000

From ignition or melting

of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556

Jaws dropper

Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000

From contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325

From being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477

From a mountain lion attack in

California: 1 in 32 million

From a shark attack:

1 in 300 million

Health risks

Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2

Of an American woman: 1 in 3

Of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6

Of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9

Of getting colon/rectal cancer:

1 in 26

Of beating cancer: 9 to 1 against for cancers like pancreatic and liver, 9 to 1 in favor for thyroid and

testicular cancers

Of having a stroke: 1 in 6

Of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3

Of getting arthritis: 1 in 7

Of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6

Of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10

Of developing schizophrenia: 1 in 00

Of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000

Of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000

Household horrors

Odds of injury from fireworks:

19,556 to 1

From shaving: 6,585 to 1

From using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1

From mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1

A bad fork in the road

Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1

Of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1

Of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1

Bolt out of the blue

Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1

Of being killed by lightning:

2,320,000 to 1

Spaced out

Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000

Of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000

Killer stats

Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1

Of getting away with murder: 2 to 1

Of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1

Sources: National Safety Council; "Life: The Odds" by Gregory Baer (2003); www.tchester.org; National Survey of Family Growth; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; FBI; "The Sizesaurus" by Stephen Strauss (1995); "What Are the Chances?" by Bernard Siskin and Jerome Staller with David Rorvik (1989); William Hill, bookmakers – London; www.fourleafclover.com; American Heart Association; American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgery; American Lung Association; American Cancer Society; National Center for Health Statistics; "The Book of Odds" by Michael D. and Robert L. Shook (1991); The Astronomical Journal.

[rman]

18. chance of dying in an ELE: ~100%

Chance of Earth being hit by an ELE in within the next 100.000 years: ~100%.
If we ever want to have a chance to deal with anything less then an ELE, we better start working on it now, as opposed to cutting budgets for the required research.

[windansea]

22. agreed

they are working on it

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20040224-0001-ca-defendingearth.html

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/pha.html

[my cuppa tea]

71. "Of developing schizophrenia: 1 in 00 "

I find that hilarious for some reason. Do we develop it from trying to figure out the figures?

;)

edit: whooops...replying to post 12. sorry :)

[Exultant Democracy]

34. I hope you realize that those numbers don't add up

or should I say that they do add up to everyone dieing about one and a half times next year. That is unless some of the people die of a few things at the same time.

"Mr. Burns, you have every disease know to man... we call it three stooges syndrome."

Edit: I didn't notice at first that that was a big tent cancer you had there with plenty of survivors.

[neverforget]

72. Numbers don't add up? Were they calculated by a Diebold machine?

:evilgrin:

[finecraft]

15. As long as they didn't name it Wormwood

I think we're o.k.

[JohnOneillsMemory]

16. Do you suppose that FEMA would've tipped their hand and taken over? n/t

[windansea]

17. nah

they'd all be running for the government bunkers and locking the doors on us taxpayers

[Athame]

20. Okay, add that one to the list

Peak Oil
Global Warming/Ice Age
Earthquake in So Cal predicted by June
Bird flu pandemic
Terrorist act
World war
...
Asteroid

:bounce: :scared: :bounce: :scared: :bounce:

[windansea]

28. I wouldn't confuse this

with scaremongering...it's quite beyond the scope of politics and also quite real

[Zhade]

37. I don't think any of the above list IS scaremongering.

That's the problem!

[Athame]

47. Nor do I

In fact, the asteroid missed this time.

Peak Oil is inevitable, whether it is just past the crest or not.

A major pandemic is long overdue and the medical community is on high alert right now.

Certainly we can acknowledge that the ice is melting and the weather is dramatic these past few years, the great coral reef is bleached and dying. Is it global warming? I think the only real debate is about whether it is caused by human intervention, not that we can avoid the impact.

Terror and World War? Although caused by human beings, history does not bring much hope of avoidance.

[Ediacara]

21. 30 meters? That's nothing!

Although it would definately be bad at its target area, and, probably would create pseudo-earthquakes and/or tsunamis and forest fires (if it struck land), it would, on a global scale, be not much worse than a volcano erupting.

Mt Saint Helens was bad in the Pacific Northwest, but outside of WA-OR-ID-BC.... it wasn't a big deal.

There ARE however very large rocks, on the order of 100s to 1000s of m in diameter, and those.... those would be bad.

[windansea]

23. meteor crater in AZ caused by 30 meter rock

30-40 megaton blast

[windansea]

25. then there was the ELE event in the Yucatan

which caused a 170 km crater, 4 mile high waves that swept round the world, nuclear winter, death to your dino buddies, alllowing us mammals to take over

[htuttle]

26. And THAT is what lead to the development of opposable thumbs!

So we should put them to use on this! It's why we have them!

[windansea]

27. yep....some links

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/links/

[Ediacara]

30. But the Yucatan impact was by something

with a diameter 200x greater.

The 30 m rock had a volume of 14,137 cubic meters, but the Yucatan meteor had a volume of 113,097,335,529 cubic meters. That's more than EIGHT MILLION TIMES more massive than the near miss rock.

Like I said, the near miss rock was nothing to worry about.

ON EDIT: Just for fun, the mass (assuming a density of 2.5 g/ml) of the near-miss meteor is about 35,000 tonnes, yet the mass of the Yucatan meteor was closer to 283 billion tonnes. To make the comparison to this is just silly...

[Paulie]

42. Tell that to people at the impact center. :-)

I know here in Chicago we wouldn't take to kindly to a 30m anything dropping on us, neither would our neighboring states, they don't want to be able to drive on the lake bed to come to the new lake. :eek:

[Ediacara]

49. If you'll notice...

I said that the impact point would be a disaster, but on a global scale, it would be nothing compared to the Yucatan impact, which was caused by a rock eight million times more massive than the 30m one.

[havocmom]

52. the global problem would be neocon hot heads thinking a big bomb went off

and getting everything in the arsenal air born. Current US leadership is not known for being up on science but plenty happy to pull triggers. They are also not known for getting accurate info before pulling those triggers.

[Ediacara]

53. True, but chances are that it would hit in the ocean

And hopefully Rummy would take enough to time ask, "uh, why is someone nuking the South Pacific?"

[havocmom]

57. Parts of Skylab hit Canada .

I know the surface is mostly ocean, but strikes happen on land masses all the time. Wouldn't a strike of this size would be picked up on military satilite, especially if it were to start any fires?

Yes, odds of a hit in the water are greater, but just the same, the hell with Atkins; want some of my m&ms? ;-)

[oneighty]

61. If God smote

If God smote Chicago with asteroid? Wow! What a neat song somebody write about Chicago.

180

[Occulus]

70. ...other than to say it happens

and to show the variance in posiible magnitude.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

75. If I remember correctly...

...the Gulf of Mexico IS the impact crater from that one. :scared:

[Ediacara]

77. nope

The gulf of Mexico is not the impact crater, the crater has been filled in by sediments, but occupies a small area in the northern part of the Yucatan Penninsula, and is invisible from space because it's full of dirt and covered by plants.

The Gulf of Mexico is a large sea formed by North and South America rifting (among other processes).

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

79. I bow before DinoBoy's geological prowess

[Occulus]

69. Those are some cool photos.

[lebkuchen]

46. The Ries Crater's meteorite in Germany was 1000 meters in diameter

creating a crater about 25 km in diameter 15 million years ago (recent). Nordlingen is the walled "stadt" inside the crater. St. George's church, in Nordlingen, is cut from the melted rocks resulting from the impact. It's very interesting to climb the church tower for an aerial view.

This is where our astronauts trained for the moon landing.

http://www.astro.hr/vsa97/eng/html/ries_crater.html

[lebkuchen]

48. Read the last paragraph of the article

The size prediction turned out to be wrong. It was actually 1/2 km in diameter, a horse of a different color.

[Ediacara]

50. Still relatively minor

The volume of a 500m wide rock is 65,449,486 cubic meters, which still makes the Yucatan impact ~1,725 times more massive. You're right, it would be a lot worse than a 30m rock, but still relatively inconsequential.

[rman]

54. big enough to make a Very Big Splash

of the kind where you'd wish you knew ahead of time exactly when and where it will hit, so that you can try to evacuate relevant costal areas. It would be a huge evacuation so you'd like to know many months in advance.
For the time being we'll have to do with a few days warning and not a clue where it will hit.

[Ediacara]

55. Like I said

It would be bad, but it wouldn't be armegeddon by any stretch of the imagination. Chances are it would land in the ocean, and cause pretty substantial tsunamis. Coastal areas would have a matter of hours to evacuate, and waves would quickly lose their energy on shore, especially against barriers like mountains.

BUT, hardly anything would go extinct, and depending on where it hit, infrastructural damage could be minimized.

[windansea]

65. read this

Comet caused Dark Age frosts
04/02/04

The scientists calculate that a comet not much more than half a kilometre across could cause a global nuclear winter effect. This is significantly smaller than was previously thought. Dr. Ward-Thompson said: "One of the exciting aspects of this work is that we have re-classified the size of comet that represents a global threat. This work shows that even a comet of only half a kilometre in size could have global consequences. Previously nothing less than a kilometre across was counted as a global threat. If such an event happened again today, then once again a large fraction of the earth's population could face starvation."

http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/news_display.cfm?code=news_intro

[lebkuchen]

66. Just like I always knew

Size matters. :D

[Ediacara]

67. Sorry

but a global cooling event isn't really life threatening. It could definately cause some localised extinctions, but like I have been saying over and over and over...... this meteor, if it's 30m or 500m across was nothing to really worry about in a global disaster sort of sense.

[windansea]

73. not threatening huh?

The scientists in the School of Physics and Astronomy believe this was caused by a comet hitting the earth and exploding in the upper atmosphere. The debris from this giant explosion was such that it enveloped the earth in soot and ash, blocking out the sunlight and causing the very cold weather. This effect is known as a plume and is similar to that seen when comet Shoemaker-Levy-9 hit Jupiter in 1995.

Studies of tree rings, from preserved oaks retrieved from Irish bogs to ancient American pine trees, have shown that plant growth around the world almost stopped between about 536AD to 545AD. Chinese records from this time refer to a "dust veil" obscuring the skies. Mediterranean historians record a "dry fog" that blocked out much of the sun's heat for more than a year.

http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/news_display.cfm?code=news_intro

some pretty smart scientists disagree with you

[Ediacara]

76. Thanks for the extensive bolding

Very nice of you. In any case, I don't think they disagree with me. I simply said that a 500m asteroid would be minor. And all the data you have presented point to nothing but a MINOR event.

And sorry but a decline in the growth of trees doesn't equal plant growth almost stopped. You'll notice most plants on Earth aren't trees, and I am sure the years 536-545 were just as weed infested as ever.

And another thing, try to lay off the argumentum ad atoritatum, it's unbecoming of a DUer.

[windansea]

80. don't take it personally

just presenting information from scientists who study this for a living who appear to think a 500 meter object could cause serious problems planet wide....I bolded the portion of the previously posted article as it seemed you had not read it completely...and I don't need a lecture on what is becoming of a du-er

The reason I posted this info is that most people are oblivious to the fact that sooner or later we will get hit...that's a fact and if more people are aware of it perhaps the scientists will get more funding to identify these objects and figure out a way to to deal with it....:)

[SmileyBoy]

32. That's a "Tunguska-size" object that impacts once every 100 years.

You don't even WANT to know the trauma I experienced on Sunday night from some asshole on another message board making some hoax claim of some giant asteroid colliding on Friday morning.

Thank God it was a hoax.

[Buns_of_Fire]

33. The scientists were facing a tough choice...

...many astronomers did not agree that waking up President Bush would have been wise.

Which would have been the greater threat -- a 30m hemmorhoid asteroid striking the earth, or a cranky Bunnypants, deprived of his beauty sleep, with his finger on The Button?

[Rebel_with_a_cause]

43. Had it landed on the East Coast, it would have been a moot issue

[xxqqqzme]

35. would that B an

asteroid ordered by OBL?

[emad]

41. Where was it headed? Howabout Crawford, Texas, by popular

demand???

[KansDem]

51. "researchers contemplated a call to President Bush"

Who would have no doubt insisted on "sound science" and then rushed off to call Cheney to see how Halliburton et al could profit from an asteroid strike.

[jackstraw45]

56. EXACTLY

We wouldn't have known but strangely, many senior administration officials would have been airborne at the time of impact....

Just like how Ashcroft & co. stopped flying commercial a few months before 9/11.

[havocmom]

58. "researchers contemplated a call to President Bush " then saw the folly

of that and went our for drinks...

[ProfessorGAC]

59. Does Anyone Really Believe 1 In 4?

I don't. I would say someone miscalculated badly. The reason why they decided not to call because we were safe, was likely because the odds went from 1 in 4 to 1 in 4 billion in about 30 minutes.

This should not be news story. That asteroid missed us by over a 7 million miles. That is not a close call. And, the trajectory would have been identifiable for weeks. The intercept calculations of two orbits is not that hard. It could have been done by hand in 15 minutes.

This is just a screw up, and the only news story here is that some scientists soiled themselves.
The Professor

[windansea]

68. Gee professor

maybe you should take over at JPL for Dr Chesley

Dr Steven Chesley NASA JPL

Dr. Steve Chesley's main area of research relates to orbit determination of asteroids and comets. He is an expert in asteroid collision prediction, leading the development of JPL's Sentry automated impact monitoring system. As a member of the NEAR Navigation Team at JPL he was closely involved with the planning and execution of the first asteroid landing. Before joining JPL he was an NSF-NATO postdoctoral fellow at the University of Pisa, where he developed the NEODyS system and the first operational impact monitoring system. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Texas in 1998.

[trixie]

60. WE must get to Mars.........

Now I see why Bush wants to go to Mars - terrorists!

[Superfly]

63. Within 0.085 AU according to JPL

Link

That's pretty close.

[RetroLounge]

64. Man that was close!

It might have killed the Dinosaurs!

RL

[DS1]

78. Bush would just put on his cowboy hat and say "Charlie Don't Surf!"

completely missing the point, as usual.