U.S. consumer confidence plunges in Feb

[UpInArms]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={6C8FAB4A-D7F3-4EF0-83BC-1FC3F52B58DA}&siteid=

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. consumers became much more cautious in February, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index plunged to 87.3 in February from a revised 96.4 in January. Economists expected the index to fall to about 92.9. The present situation index eased to 73.1 from 79.4, while the expectations index sank to 96.8 from 107.8.

...more...

[mhr]

1. Christmas Credit Card Bills, Higher Real Estate Taxes, And Jobs Long Gone

Wake Up America!

[mbperrin]

2. Wonder if the powers that be will allow last week's PPI to

ever be released?

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/02/23/rtr1271503.html




WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - A U.S. Labor Department official said on Monday that it was not publishing its January producer prices report today and said she did not know when it will be issued.

"We have no plans to release the PPI (Producer Price Index) today," said Marta Norton, an economist with the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Asked whether she knew when the report would be released, Norton replied: "I have no idea when we're going to release it."

The report was originally scheduled to be issued last Thursday...

MUST NOT BE GOOD NEWS, eh?

[denverbill]

6. That is truly bizarre. I've never heard of the govt doing that.

Frankly, I can't believe an announcement like that wouldn't rattle the markets.

[Beetwasher]

7. Wha wha what?!

That's ridiculous...Their reason:


The report was originally scheduled to be issued last Thursday but the department said it was delayed because of difficulties in updating seasonal adjustment factors.

Uhhh, why is it all of sudden so difficult to make those adjustements? The real difficulty is coming up w/ new ways to cook the numbers...

[Arugula Latte]

10. Shrub

is plugging his ears and closing his eyes: "Economy's great nyaah nyaah I can't hear you nyaah nyaah everything's getting better nyaah nyaah nyaah..."

[daleo]

11. I suspect the numbers are saying 'recession on the way'

and they will be shelved in the hope that they turn around and/or can be cooked/hidden.

[Robbien]

12. The PPI is the only stat that cannot be manipulated

by the hedonic deflators which grossly "adjust" GDP and CPI. Items such as wheat and steal cannot be factored down by hedonic factors.

Unless the number is released very soon, something besides technical difficulties is causing the delay.

[MrBenchley]

3. This index was regularly in the 130s

when Clinton was in office, and began to nosedive right after the Supreme Court installed this drunk.

[NeoConsSuck]

4. Bye Bye Chimp...

All the market manipulation in the world can't hide the fact that the average consumer has lost complete confidence in your administration.

[LeftHander]

5. Tax time coming too...

Those BIG middle class tax cuts and making people so confident...

Big bills from x-mas, new mortgage, gas prices on the rise...

Not looking good for SHrubya...

hehehe

[Francis]

8. What is consumer confidence?

I don't understand what it is and how the index is arrived at.
I'm sure it's not just a case of asking people if they are confident or not.
Does it have anything to do with new debt incurred?

[Beetwasher]

9. It's based on a survey

done by telephone and essentially they ask the people how confident they are and probably ask them to rate their confidence on a scale.

[ProfessorGAC]

13. Check The Archives Folks

We here at DU discussed this month ago. We knew it would happen. We all agreed that the confidence numbers always inflate at Christmas time. Any idiot economist who expected the fall to maintain the number in the 90's should have his degree revoked.

For 21 of the last 25 years there has been a 6 to 9 percent drop in CC after January. 96.4 minus 6 is only 90.4, so that's the highest predictable value and represents only 13% of the distribution of predictions. It is patently obvious this number would fall to less than 89%. 87.3% is actually greater than the predicted range, but i would have been a heck of lot closer than the rubes on the Conference Board. It astounds me how these folks got those positions. They are virtually clueless as to how macroeconomies really work.
The Professor

[KayLaw]

14. Professor

What's your guess or theory about the PPI report not being released?

:hi:

[ProfessorGAC]

15. I Don't Suspect Anything Nefarious

Those humbers require a lot of resources to accumulate and compile. A lot of economic reports are released late.

A great example is the trumpeted 8.2% GDP growth in 3Q03. Because the Net Export balance sheets weren't complete, the number that showed the 2.04% quarterly growth was released without the negative net export number being subtracted. One late report caused a monumental gaffe by the hyperventilating press. Oh, they corrected it and announced the correction, but that wasn't on page one in 2.5" type. It was on page 14 or something.

UE numbers are often released late. The normal release dates are probably hit 5 out of 6 times. But, often they know they are going to be late, so they announce the revised release date ahead of time. Then, nobody thinks anything of it and just waits until the new date. It's usually only a day or two.

So, PPI will be out there. Besides they can't hide it. The data is all put into the SAUS database. Anyone with a subscription can get to the data and find out for themselves.

I don't think it's anything underhanded. I'd guess it's just a missed deadline.
The Professor

[KayLaw]

16. I see

Thanks for your opinion. I hope it comes out soon as I'm curious to see it.

[mobuto]

17. Consumer Confidence Index Declines Nine Points (Conf. Board Press Release)

Consumer Confidence Index Declines Nine Points

February 24, 2004



The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved last month, weakened significantly in February. The Index now stands at 87.3 (1985=100), down from 96.4 in January. The Expectations Index fell to 96.8 from 107.8. The Present Situation Index declined to 73.1 from 79.4.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO WorldGroup. NFO is one of TNS group of companies (LSE: TNN). The cutoff date for February’s preliminary results was the 17th.

“Consumers began the year on a high note, but their optimism has quickly given way to caution,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “Consumers remain disheartened with current economic conditions, and at the core of their disenchantment is the labor market. While the current expansion has generated jobs over the past several months, the pace of creation remains too tepid to generate a sustainable turnaround in consumers’ confidence. And, with consumers anticipating economic conditions to remain about the same in the months ahead, their short-term outlook turned less optimistic.”

Consumers' assessment of current conditions was less positive in February than last month. Those claiming business conditions are “good” declined to 19.3 percent from 21.9 percent. Those claiming conditions are “bad” rose to 25.1 percent from 22.9 percent. Consumers claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged up to 32.1 percent from 31.6 percent. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” dipped to 11.8 percent from 12.3 percent.

Consumers’ short-term outlook weakened significantly. Those expecting business conditions to improve in the next six months dropped to 21.8 percent from 27.6 percent. Consumers expecting conditions to worsen over the next six months rose to 8.7 percent from 6.7 percent.

The employment outlook was also less favorable. Those anticipating more jobs to become available in the next six months fell to 18.7 percent from 22.0 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs to become available increased to 18.1 percent from 15.0 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes declined to 16.7 percent from 19.2 percent.

Source: February 2004 Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board.
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerconfidence.cfm