STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 24 February (#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday February 24, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 335
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 74 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 126 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 337
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 822
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 23, 2004

Dow... 10,609.62 -9.41 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,007.52 -30.41 (-1.49%)
S&P 500... 1,140.99 -3.12 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% -0.05 (-1.17%)
Gold future... 399.30 +1.30 (+0.33%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Puplava "Helicopter Money"

Helicopter Money

The world is awash in liquidity with helicopter money that is printed out of thin air and dumped on to the financial system. Central banks everywhere are injecting vast amounts of credit and money into the financial system. Fiscal and monetary policy is focused on reflating the global economy. Money is literally being dropped from helicopters on to the financial system and the economy.

The three main culprits are the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China and the Federal Reserve. Central banks are expanding their broad money aggregates with some more aggressive than others. Not since the Dutch Tulip Mania, the Mississippi Scheme and the South Sea Bubble days of the 17th century has there been this much money printing. The money aggregates are expanding everywhere and this in itself is inflationary. Inflation is an expanding money supply and everywhere you look the supply of money is growing and expanding. Governments are financing never ending deficits with limitless oceans of paper money. If the present rate of monetary expansion continues unabated, we may soon run out of forestable land. Central bankers will need to harvest all of the world’s timber just to keep up with the pace of monetary inflation.

<cut>
Japan's Central Bank to the Fed's Rescue

This is clearly an unsustainable trend that will ultimately end in a dollar crisis. The Federal Reserve is trying to work its way out of a financial bubble of its own creation and it has enlisted the Japanese central bank as its surrogate. Last year alone Japan acquired $250 billion in U.S. assets, an amount equivalent to 4 percent of Japan’s GDP. Japanese monetary authorities created Y 27,000 billion. The amount of money that Japan’s central bank created out of thin air was large enough to finance 13 percent of the U.S. budget deficit. This year that amount will be even larger. This year Japan’s central bank will print enough Yen to purchase up to $575 billion of U.S. assets. Alongside of Japan, China, which is running a trade surplus of $125 billion with the U.S. each year, has allocated up to $150 billion. At this rate of money creation they will need more than helicopters to drop money. They may have to enlist the services of Goodyear blimps.

<cut>
What I hope to put to the pen is what historians have recorded over many centuries is that the pattern of the rise and fall of prices has been a constant throughout all of history. In his book “The Great Wave,” Fisher highlights a series of conditions that lead and give way to price revolutions. They begin during periods of prosperity which leads to population growth. These patterns are as follows:

1) General economic prosperity
2) Rise in birth rate
3) Demand rises for life’s necessities
4) Demand exceeds supply
5) Prices rise
6) Not all prices increase at same time
7) Prices of energy, food, shelter and raw materials rise
8) Energy prices rise faster than any other commodity
9) The price of manufactured goods rises more slowly at a time of accelerating commodity prices
10) Monetary inflation accelerates
11) Large scale currency debasement
12) Massive size government budget deficits
13) Growing gaps between returns to labor and capital
14) Growing wealth inequality and widescale social unrest
15) War

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[cryofan]

13. WHAT REPORTS ARE DUE TODAY?

Consumer confidence? Profits? When are they due?

[54anickel]

49. The 2 charts in this article are true eye openers. Especially seeing

the money supply expansion in so many nations.

As long as foreigners continue to accept our paper dollars they have very few choices on what to do with those dollars. They can either convert those dollars into their own currency or invest those dollars in U.S. If they convert those dollars into their own currency their currency would appreciate sharply as a result of the size of those dollar surpluses. This would put and end to their trade surplus which could in turn drive their economies into recession. The other alternative is to invest those dollar surpluses into U.S. dollar assets fueling asset bubbles here in the U.S. in stocks, bonds, mortgages, and real estate, which is what they are now doing. The result of these trade imbalances is that dollar reserves or dollar liquidity keeps expanding at an exponential rate....

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods, International Monetary System total international reserves have increased by more than 2000%. They are now growing parabolically at a rate of $1 million a minute and now approximate roughly 2% of global GDP.

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.63 Change-0.41 (-0.47%)

related articles:

Dollar Pulls Back

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20040223-000921-1708

News that the U.S. dispatched a six- member delegation to China Monday to meet with central bank and government officials came too late in the day to have an effect during New York trading. The talks will center on technical issues related to laying the groundwork for China's shift to a floating currency, the Treasury Department said.

It is the first in series of meetings the group is expected to hold. The U.S. delegation is headed by David Loevinger, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for Africa, Middle East and Asia.

<snip>

While further modest advances in the dollar can't be ruled out, the shakeout last week also leaves the U.S. currency vulnerable to resume its move lower against most of its major rivals, said analysts. ABN Amro closed its recommendation to short the euro on Monday, while Citigroup recommended reestablishing a long sterling position against the dollar.

Michael McGuinness, senior director of foreign exchange at American Express in New York, also sees evidence of short dollar positions being reestablished, particularly against those currencies that got battered Friday, including the euro, sterling, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

<snip>

"That was a dramatic change last week, but the long-term trend remains intact, so we're still short the dollar," said Fryback, whose investment firm has $80 million under management.

The dollar is expected to remain under pressure over the longer-term because low interest rates make it difficult for the U.S. to attract enough foreign investment to fund the massive current account deficit.

"The only thing that will support the dollar going forward is the market's perception that interest rates are going to go higher," said Stapleton of Fortis.

...more...

and

Greenspan Shows Little Concern For Rising Debt Burden

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/forexnews/forexnewsusdgran.asp?menu=market&dia=2322004

Fed Chairman Greenspan spoke about mortgages and the housing market today, indicating that consumers appeared in good financial shape, as they were able to shoulder rising debt burdens because they are cushioned by rising home prices. Of course this is often a mistake made by bankers when they overextend to a sector, lending increasing amounts to borrowers and taking as collateral the very asset which has been the target of their credit. Lending to Latin America in the 1980s is the textbook example. But the Fed often cites the leveling off of the debt servicing level as an indication of economic health. Yet a variety of other indicators show more trouble on the way for consumers. A more accurate measure of homeowner health would be the liability to asset ratio, which has jumped 12%, since the Fed began cutting rates in 2001, despite the rapid rise in house prices. It now stands at 19%, up from 10% in 1960. More importantly, businesses have improved their balance sheets, but due more to refinancings at lower rates as business loans have dropped substantially, making the homeowner the target for most lending. That most of the debt continues to flood the non- productive activities of consumers has yet to alarm the Fed.

Meanwhile, bullish bond traders are hoping for a renewed fall in the dollar that will attract more central bank buying at this week's auction of U.S. government debt. It is widely known that foreign central bankers are the linchpins in supporting an overleveaged consumer. This should alarm most market participants. Recall that the last two-year note sale in January, foreign central banks took on 42% of the offer. Given that bonds appear significantly overvalued, a pullback in the indirect offers component may alarm traders this week.

...more...

I was looking at the extended chart on the dollar http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax and although there appear to be several upturns, the general trend is downward - I am not certain that Japan can "reflate" our dollar. The comparison to that is to lend money to someone so that they can buy your products. For me that is too much like putting two dimes in a box and shaking it and expecting them to multiply.

Have a great day all you Marketeers! :hi:

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning UIA and everyone!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I have just been reading some scary reports and editorials (Is it an editorial if the comments are substantiaited with fugures?) on the current economic climate. Denmark expressed huge reservations on the valuation of the dollar and the global impact of the US' huge trade imbalances. Again, The US' fiscal policies are sending shudders up spines around the world.

After re-reading the comments about Greenscam's sentiments on household debt, I am convinced that he, like Senator Zell Miller, has gone completely nutso. Greenscam claims that he cannot forsee a bubble developing, yet he professes ideas that gave rise to bubbles earlier in his tenure. The old adage holds true: insanity is characterized by repeating the same behavior, each time expecting a different result.

[54anickel]

5. Funny how the mainstream press was predicting that this latest rally

in the dollar would continue up for at least a week. Yet it could not even break through it's last high in January and is already on it's merry way back down the slope.

I cannot help but think back to the Plaza Accord and the geopolitical tensions of the following 7 - 10 years. Back then there was no serious alternative reserve to the US dollar. Now there is the Euro. While still fairly young, the ECB policies of limited deficits and their desire to not play the currency intervention games is making the Euro an attractive alternative reserve to many.

[ozymandius]

3. God Save American Investors From the Horrors of a Huge Depression

by Robert B. Gordon, Sc. D.

PREPARE FOR A LONG AND DEEP DEPRESSION

Robert Prechter, whose opinions I greatly respect, has stated with confidence in his current monthly Theorist that the U.S. economy entered a depression in 2001. He said that no one agrees with his statement since people can not see the signs of its final bottom, such as bankruptcies, bread lines, bank closings etc. The depression is now in its early stages when it is best for every investor to do what can be done with that knowledge. He adds, what good is there in finding you are in a depression after its over. Economists didn’t discover the last one until 1933 at the market bottom and he predicts that the same thing will happen again this time.

The current weakness in tax receipts, manufacturing and jobs is not typical of a recession, but of a severe depression still in its early stages. No politician in any party is recognizing this fact. All of the problems are being attributed to the lagging effect of a mild recession that ended many months ago. This serious misconception has caused our cities and states to solve their cash needs by floating bonds that may default on their interest coupons when the depression really takes hold. We are all aware of California’s budget problems and of Pittsburgh threatening to declare bankruptcy but the problems are actually nationwide. Prechter included this quotation from the February 17 New York Post.

"New York’s local governments crumble - literally and figuratively - under the weight of out-of-control state Medicaid, tax, environmental and other burdensome policies."

<cut>
WAKE UP CALL

For every investor, who has some clue as to what our country is facing right now, there are probably at least 100 without any warning of the great damage a severe depression will do. It will surely be enormous - much greater than in 1929 or any other bear market due to the masses of investors now being forced to build their own retirement fund. The great mass of investors are now super bullish, along with most advisors. In January, they bought a huge record amount of equity funds, probably marking the approaching end of the year long market rally. This fact, coupled with a severe lack of knowledge and experience in building and preserving capital, dooms many millions of investors at all income levels to a financial disaster they do not expect. The scope and size of this problem add up to a major national disaster of enormous magnitude that is impossible to prevent under current circumstances.

MY EDUCATION IN BOOMS AND BUSTS

Sometime in 1995, I received a flyer advertising Robert Prechter’s revolutionary book titled At the Crest of the Tidal Wave. It was a huge volume with many charts. It took me several years to understand Ralph Elliott’s great contribution, now called the Elliott Wave Theory. At the time I first read the book, I was 80 years old and had been investing for more than 50 years. It was truly a revolutionary event in my life; my entire outlook was changed. Although I had read them before, I reread some of the excellent books on the histories of previous manias from the Dutch tulip bulbs in the 1630s up thru the on-going boom and bust in Japan. I was completely fascinated by their stock charts. Without exception, every past mania ended with the stock price below its starting level. For example, in 1929, the Dow started at 42, rose to over 390 and bottomed at 31 - a very sobering example especially since the Dow, now above 10,000, started up in the 1970s from about 500. The specter of the Dow eventually dropping below 500 should shock all investors into action, but the problem of getting the scary facts to them is very large.

THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF THE 21ST CENTURY

[Frodo]

12. They didn't know it was a Depression until 1933?

One would think it was pretty obvious starting around late 1929.

He's acting like Depressions just sneak up on everyone and they have no idea it's happening for years after it happens.

"The great mass of investors are now super bullish, along with most advisors"

Really? Like who? Most advisors I've seen published are talking about a 6-10% year for the S&P. That's about as "blah" average as you get. Far from "super bullish".

[ozymandius]

18. My father lived through the Depression

and that was the way it went. The economy went down like an elephant struck with a hundred arrows. The beast staggered and slogged on over time, slowly coming to a halt. Hoover did what he could to secure faith in the U.S. economy with the "prosperity is just around the corner" phrase. The horrid reality realized slowly as the entire country did not sink into a depression all at once. The malaise took two years to spread overseas.

As far as Robert Gordon's column is concerned, these are his assertions, not mine. Though I am inclined to agree as I have read numerous stories pontificating the triumph of the bull over the bear. You need only look at cnn.money.com for delusional economic reporting. My rhetorical evidence may be elemental to Mr. Gordon's stance on the subject.

[UpInArms]

19. here's a snippet from this morning's

briefing.com

Losses for now are only mild, but yesterday's session and multiple session last weeks had seen a steady deterioration through the session, which could continue in today's session, as well... Keep in mind, though, that aside from valuation concerns, the market's fundamentals are positive... Briefing.com remains moderately bullish longer-term...

[Frodo]

21. This is evidence of what I've been talking about.

"Briefing.com (one of the more bullish sites out there) remains moderately bullish longer-term..." now equals "The great mass of investors are now super bullish, along with most advisors"

I think Briefing's assumption was a moderate pullback in the near future but about 8-10% for the year. This is far from the super-bull.

And it's WAY WAY WAY away from this guy predicting a DOW 500.

[54anickel]

51. I did not read that as a prediction of the DOW at 500.

It seemed more of an anology to, "should history repeat itself". Attempting to put what happened in the depression into context of todays numbers.

Without exception, every past mania ended with the stock price below its starting level. For example, in 1929, the Dow started at 42, rose to over 390 and bottomed at 31 - a very sobering example especially since the Dow, now above 10,000, started up in the 1970s from about 500. The specter of the Dow eventually dropping below 500.....

edit for spelling

[Frodo]

64. Ok, But he's made a cottage industry of books predicting essentially that.

I guess I was having flashbacks to some of his other work.

[54anickel]

71. Do you mean Prechter?

[ozymandius]

6. A Whirlwind Week for Greenspan

While Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites)'s appearances in various venues -- congressional testimony, policy speeches, and the like -- are eagerly followed by the markets, it's difficult to stay on top of his schedule, especially if it's as packed as it's expected to be the week of Feb. 23-27. Greenspan is slated to either testify or give a speech every day of the week --- unusual for him -- and they're all on different topics.

<cut>
Next up: On Tuesday, Feb. 24, Greenspan speaks before the Senate Banking and the House Urban Affairs committees. According to Standard & Poor's MarketScope, he's expected to reaffirm his support for a new regulator with more sweeping powers than the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight to oversee government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank. Such powers would include raising minimum capital requirements, a move neither the Bush Treasury nor the GSEs themselves support, according to Informa.

story

[ozymandius]

7. Treasuries Crawl as Global Stocks Stutter

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices inched ahead for a second session on Tuesday as a retreat in global technology stocks encouraged flows into less risky fixed-income debt.

<cut>
"There's talk around the confidence data will show a steep fall just like there was before the University of Michigan numbers," said a trader at a U.S. primary dealer. The rumors on the Michigan confidence index proved all too true as it dived over 10 points to 93.1 in February.

"But, for what its worth, our economists doubt it will fall much at all because it never bounced as much as the Michigan index did in January," he added. "If that's right, the market could be walking into a bear trap."

<cut>
EDIT (should have included this): If the dollar were to stabilize, then presumably foreign central banks would intervene less and there would be fewer official funds flowing into the U.S. bond market.

story

I am curious to know at which value does the dollar stabilize in order to stem the flow of foreign money into the bond market.

[54anickel]

8. Euro saw large investment capital outflows in December

Toward the end of the article

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/02/24/rtr1273053.html

Meanwhile markets also shrugged off European Central Bank data showing investment capital poured out of the euro zone in December at a much faster pace than in November.

Net combined direct and portfolio investment outflows amounted to 10.4 billion euros in December, widening sharply from outflows of 1.4 billion euros in November.

Investment inflows largely supported the euro's rally last year after big outflows sapped the single currency's strength earlier in its short life, though the euro also gained some five percent versus the dollar in December.

"It has to be said, the rally we saw through December is not being backed up by underlying investment flow," said Tony Norfield, global head of foreign exchange strategy at ABN Amro, adding the euro had gained mostly because investors were hedging against a further drop in the dollar.

"It doesn't mean the euro cannot go up any more, and in fact we think it is starting another short rally phase... but it does highlight how global investors are concerned about dollar risk."

[Frodo]

9. Your answer from yesterday:

"I am happy for you and hope you enjoy your victory of semantics."

Thank you so much! Yes! I LIVE for semantic victories!


:eyes:

Have a great day. Should be interesting with such a variability on what is expected for the Consumer Confidence number ("lack of confidence in confidence number"?) in a few minutes.



On THIS article. It IS interesting how it is all about the Dollar. Not "Euro strength", or "Yen weakness".

[54anickel]

50. I am afraid I do not understand your point on this article. Could you

elaborate?

On THIS article. It IS interesting how it is all about the Dollar. Not "Euro strength", or "Yen weakness".

[Frodo]

63. I just found it interesting is all.

Japan's markets spiked up late last week when the yen weakened. But it wasn't really the Yen, it was speculation that the dollar may have started to end it's fall. Then it collapsed yesterday on reverse speculation (the Nikkei was down like 2% yesterday). Then the Euro is in trouble because it's too strong, but not because of any inherent strength, because of the dollar weakness. Then there's the price of gold, which is also more of an indication of where the dollar is than of any underlying fundamentals.

[54anickel]

72. I believe the Yen weakening last week was due to a couple of factors,

The currency market was taken by surprise by another rather large intervention.
The heightened terrorist alert that resulted from the bomb in Tokyo late Tuesday night.

I must have missed the reported speculation on the dollar ending it's fall.

[ozymandius]

10. 9:40 - market opens down and blather

Dow 10,590.81 -18.81 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,995.89 -11.63 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,137.30 -3.69 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.034% -0.016

Wall Street Opens Down on Prices Worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares slipped at Tuesday's opening bell on nagging concerns that the stock market is overpriced after its 11-month run-up.

short story

[54anickel]

11. More talks with China - Is this a political dog & pony show to appease

the manufacturing sector?

http://www.iht.com/articles/130980.html

A group led by the U.S. Treasury is holding talks with Chinese officials this week, aimed at helping the world's most populous nation modernize its economic infrastructure as part of a possible transition to a more flexible currency regime.

snip>
U.S. manufacturers and lawmakers have complained that China's nine-year policy of keeping the value of the yuan close to 8.3 to the dollar gives China an unfair trading advantage that has fueled U.S. job losses and a rising trade deficit.

snip>
Snow has said that before China can float its currency, it needs to take steps to lower barriers to capital investment and deal with bad loans in the banking system.

"The current exchange rate is in line with the country's economic development, financial supervision ability and corporate strength," the People's Bank of China said on its Web site last week.

snip>
Still, a revaluation of the yuan would not save jobs in the United States, the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, said in December. Companies would simply transfer production to low-wage countries, he said.

on edit:
A related story
Chinese Central Bank Loses 700 Billion
http://english.epochtimes.com/news/4-2-23/20059.html

TAIPEI- Since 1997, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has spent 700 billion yuan ($85 billion USD) refinancing loans owed by various Chinese financial institutions.

snip>
To deal with this issue, People’s Bank of China planned to setup a financial management company last year with the hopes of settling the loans through the market system. However, the China Ministry of Finance opposed the plan, keeping it from being implemented. These stock exchange companies have either gone bankrupt or been taken over, and chances are low the People’s Bank will even get paid back on the loans.

[54anickel]

14. Indian firms may use foreign debt for foreign M&As

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp;:403b4644:909dbbe6173fa5fb?type=businessNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=4423789

BOMBAY (Reuters) - Indian blue-chips may increase their presence in overseas debt markets after the central bank's move to let local firms fund overseas acquisitions via foreign loans, analysts and merchant bankers said on Tuesday.

The central bank on Monday permitted local companies to raise external commercial borrowings for direct investment in joint ventures or wholly owned subsidiaries, including mergers and acquisitions.

Before the ruling, Indian companies were allowed to fund acquisitions only by raising equity abroad.

Bankers expect the central bank's latest move will lead to more debt offerings in the coming months, as Indian firms go abroad to diversify and expand.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Sorry about the link. I don't know how to have the smiley's ignore the : 9

[UpInArms]

42. hi 54anickel - here's an answer to that one

at the bottom of the box where you enter your post - there is a box that can be "checked" to disable the "smilies"

:9

[54anickel]

46. Doh! That's simple enough. Thanks! Try again.....

Hmmm, new link, same article.

http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=businessNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=4423789

[JNelson6563]

15. Morning All!

What an interesting batch of articles. I've noted the weakness in the dollar coming back. I felt like a little kid the last couple days, hoping it would continue to get stronger and knowing it probably won't. Magical thinking, if I wish it to be so it shall be. haha

Looks like a shaky start. Fortunately Greenspin will do a special semantics dance like all supply-siders do, painting a pretty picture over the real, not-so-pretty picture and we can all be happy and rich. Again. Hooray!

Today I already went and taught a class of sixth graders about trade etc. A volunteer stint with Junior Achievement. You know, something to do in my spare time. Oy! Well I think it's important to try to give kids the right perspective of the business world so I am trying to help with that.

Doubt I'll be back in today, got some meetings with folks re: the campaign I am managing. I'll try to check back. Thanks to all for posting the great stuff. Ozy, love the toon. <snarf> UIA and 54anickel, I'll be printing out some of your currency reports when I cover that with the kids. Remember, I learn from all you guys post and I go out and spread the knowledge I am fortunate to gain from you.

You guys are great. Hope it's all good with your world. :hi:

Julie

[Frodo]

16. Ouch! BIG hit to Consumer Confidence numbers.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved last month, weakened significantly in February. The Index now stands at 87.3 (1985=100), down from 96.4 in January. The Expectations Index fell to 96.8 from 107.8. The Present Situation Index declined to 73.1 from 79.4.



The consensus expected it to fall (to 92 I think) but some actually expected an increase.

We're in for a medium-large down day today.

[UpInArms]

17. here are the numbers at 10:10 am EST

Dow 10,569.77 -39.85 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,991.17 -16.35 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,135.72 -5.27 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.029% -0.021

[UpInArms]

20. does the Nasdaq chart say PPT

or what?

numbers at 10:29 am EST

Dow 10,597.62 -12.00 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,007.81 +0.29 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,139.71 -1.28 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.007% -0.043

[Frodo]

22. What The?????

Where is this bounce coming from? This seems counter-intuitive. The Dow is now UP 20 and the NASDAQ is up 8???

Are they taking "less bullish" consumer sentiment to mean "the Fed can hold off longer on rates"???

[UpInArms]

24. have you ever read this executive order?

http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/codification/executive_order/12631.html

In Part:

xecutive Order 12631--Working Group on Financial Markets

Source: The provisions of Executive Order 12631 of Mar. 18, 1988, appear at 53 FR 9421, 3 CFR, 1988 Comp., p. 559, unless otherwise noted.

By virtue of the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and laws of the United States of America, and in order to establish a Working Group on Financial Markets, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Establishment. (a) There is hereby established a Working Group on Financial Markets (Working Group). The Working Group shall be composed of:
(1) the Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee;
(2) the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, or his designee;
(3) the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, or his designee; and
(4) the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or her designee.
(b) The Secretary of the Treasury, or his designee, shall be the Chairman of the Working Group.


Sec. 2. Purposes and Functions. (a) Recognizing the goals of enhancing the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of our Nation's financial markets and maintaining investor confidence, the Working Group shall identify and consider:
(1) the major issues raised by the numerous studies on the events in the financial markets surrounding October 19, 1987, and any of those recommendations that have the potential to achieve the goals noted above; and
(2) the actions, including governmental actions under existing laws and regulations (such as policy coordination and contingency planning), that are appropriate to carry out these recommendations.
(b) The Working Group shall consult, as appropriate, with representatives of the various exchanges, clearinghouses, self-regulatory bodies, and with major market participants to determine private sector solutions wherever possible.

(c) The Working Group shall report to the President initially within 60 days (and periodically thereafter) on its progress and, if appropriate, its views on any recommended legislative changes.

<snip>

This Order was signed by Bonzo RayGun

[Frodo]

28. I'm familiar with it. Your point is?

That there is an Illuminati-like group "fixing" the markets so that there are no major down days?

It's a BAD thing that the government thinks it's important that we have "competitive markets" or "investor confidence" or "itegrity, efficiency, etc."??? (embarrasing edit to add question marks -)

[UpInArms]

30. your post is all over the board, Frodo

Whose talking about an "Illuminati-like group" and therefore attempting to cast this into a "conspiracy theorist" area?

The Working Group on Financial Markets is made of shadowy figures - sorry, those people are named and are not "shadowy" as per this Executive Order.

Then your statement It's a BAD thing that the government thinks it's important that we have "competitive markets" or "investor confidence" or "itegrity, efficiency, etc."

This flies in the face of the "free market" theories that you espouse and the the convictions that our monetary system should be free of governmental "intervention".

Now, please tell me {b]What is your point?

[Frodo]

32. THe "all over the board" was a typo...

There was supposed to be a "???" at the end of that last sentence.

My point was to wonder about this "PPT" speculation that comes up every time a tiny tiny downturn turns around to a neutral day. Implying that someone is fixing the markets.

I wondered why you would bring up that executive roder (that looks pretty responsible) unless you were hinting that this was the start of something sinister.

[UpInArms]

34. the Executive Order was a possible response to your post

#22

you wondered what could possibly be happening in a "counter-intuitive" manner.

It was a suggestion that you might look to the Order to see what practices had been put in place to prevent the market from "excessive" swings so as to "undermine" the "confidence" of the public.

[Frodo]

37. So you see somethnig in that order that gives them the ability

to affect things over a ten minute span? They have some hundreds of billions of dollars they can just swing into the market to prop it up on a whim? So that MSNBC doesn't report a down day while shrubs commercials are running?

Maybe you have a longer version of the executive order you can link for me?

[UpInArms]

40. sorry Frodo - that link provided is the entire Order

and you can read and decipher it for yourself.

[Frodo]

41. I wish I could. But I'm all out of tinfoil.

[UpInArms]

43. why would it involve "tinfoil" to read an Executive Order? eom

[Frodo]

44. Because it's a leap of "faith" to make ANY connection.

Nothing in the order says ANYTHING that would address why a market moves up or down slightly in a 10-15 minute period. ANY assumption that there is a connection REQUIRES several more steps to the equation than you are willing to publicly speculate. Many of those necessary steps would involve hats constructed to protect you from mind-control rays.

[UpInArms]

52. okay - now that several hours have passed

do you have an explanation for the extreme movement of the markets in brief period in question?

10:10 am EST

Dow 10,569.77 -39.85 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,991.17 -16.35 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,135.72 -5.27 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.029% -0.021

09:39 AM (the time of your post #22)

Where is this bounce coming from? This seems counter-intuitive. The Dow is now UP 20 and the NASDAQ is up 8???

I am not a mad-hatter.

The Consumer Confidence number was released at 10:00 am EST and your post #16 explains how far off the "consensus" it was.

That would explain the drop, but what explains the rise?

Do you have a more balanced interpretation?

You say that there are no "really bullish" investment advisors out there, so what would drive investors in with such news and numbers?

Throw my speculation of possible intervention away and give me a new one.

[hang a left]

54. tee hee. go get em.

[Frodo]

58. Here's a simple answer. Your scale is too far off.

If you're looking at five an ten point moves in the S&P as "extreme movement of the markets" then you haven't watched the market very long. I just wondered at the short-term psycology of the CC number with the rise shortly thereafter. It doesn't ahve to be ANYTHING (that small a move might be just a couple stocks having good days). I also speculated that maybe the news was "goldilocks" enough that some traders might think it gives the Fed some wiggle room. I think we saw that before with the GDP numbers. Some people might have spooked at a BIG (6%,7%,8%) number two quarters in a row and assume we had inflation on the horizon while lethargic growth in the 2% range would destroy any hint of a real "recovery".

I didn't say there are "no really bullish" investors. There obviously ARE (always). I disputed the idea that analysts are all indicating it is straight up from here like they did in 2000. The consensus analyst position is for very realistic market movement considering the strong profit growth from most companies.

To reiterate You've got to be talking about more significant moves before there has to be an "explanation" up 10-20 or down 10-20 is just "noise".

[UpInArms]

62. it was your post #16

that posed the question and the movement was of 60 points - try looking at the charts to see the rise.

[Frodo]

67. Sure... 60 points on the DOW (and it's back down now).

Moves that equal .5% just can't be classified as dramatic swings.

My wondering what the mechanism was is not the same thing as speculating there must be something "wrong" with it.

"I don't understand why something is going up" does not mean "there is no logical reason for it to go up... something crooked must be going on" Believe it or not... sometimes even I don't know. < /sarcasm>

[54anickel]

65. It will be interesting to see where it closes today and the rest of the

week in comparison to the technical analysis from last week. Perhaps buying a bit of time until a more "sunshiny" later in the week. The NASDAQ is hovering near that psychologically important 2000 mark.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x381472#381916

[54anickel]

23. I've heard this admin say that the %deficit to GDP is not important.

Yet the trade deficit percentage of GDP seems to be what most of the foreign banks and investment firms are looking at in ascertaining what the value of the dollar should be.

I came across interesting article that goes into it a bit more.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2004/2/24/business/7363882&sec=business

snip>
In trade-weighted terms, the dollar has fallen by about 15%. The problem with the dollar is that it is still too strong. The current value of the dollar corresponds closely to its 30-year average in real terms.

All indications are that the dollar will continue to wilt, for the currency has not gone down far enough to fix the problem of soaring US current account deficit, which now stands at an unsustainable level of 5% of gross domestic product (GDP).

snip>
There is no presumption that exchange rate changes alone would suffice to correct the imbalances in the US, the root cause of the problem.

In the absence of serious expenditure adjustments in the US, the depreciation of the dollar will have to be deeper than otherwise.

The Deutsche Bank has estimated that the dollar will have to fall to 1.45 against the euro in order that the US current account deficit is reduced to 3.6% of GDP from the current 5%.

That, however, is not good enough. To reduce the US current account deficit to a more sustainable level of 2.5% of GDP, the dollar will have to climb down to 1.98 against the euro, if all else remains unchanged.

snip>
The extent to which the dollar needs to shrink will thus depend on the size of the US budget deficit relative to GDP, which now stands close to 5% of GDP.

According to the Deutsche Bank calculations, the dollar will have to fall 1.64 against the euro, assuming a budget deficit/GDP ratio of 1.5%, to reduce the trade deficit/GDP ratio by one half.

more...

[Frodo]

25. Pardon my symantic tic again but

"I've heard this admin say that the %deficit to GDP is not important"

I think what they've said is that the deficit SHOULD be measured as a percent of GDP and not actual dollars. It's been their defensive mantra to anyone talking about "record deficits" because they aren't THAT big (not "Reaganesque") as a percentage of GDP.

[54anickel]

26. Perhaps I should have said the currnet % deficit to GDP is not out of

line with what we have had in the past? I believe that was their jist.

[Frodo]

31. I think so.

The problem is that "not out of line with the past" is really just looking at what Reagan did with previous massive deficit spending.

Now, there IS some point to be made that we never ran into the financial cataclysm that some here are predicting with THIS massive deficit spending... but you really can't say it isn't "out of line" with history. It's well up there.

[54anickel]

33. So, do you have any input regarding the actual article posted?

I see it would be best if I simply leave any commentary out of my posts from now on.

[Frodo]

35. Sure. It seems a little strange. Are they supporting the notion..

...that the dollar really hasn't fallen all that much?

[UpInArms]

29. if they are going to use the

"deficit to GDP" number - they are going to have to go much much lower than 3.6% of GDP

http://www.cbpp.org/10-16-03tax.htm

Treasury Department figures show that actual corporate income tax revenues fell to $132 billion in 2003, down 36 percent from $207 billion in 2000.

As a result of these low levels, corporate revenues in 2003 represented only 1.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (the basic measure of the size of the economy), the lowest level since 1983, the year in which corporate receipts plummeted to levels last seen in the 1930s.

Corporate revenues represented only 7.4 percent of all federal tax receipts in 2003. With the exception of 1983, this represents the lowest level on record (these data go back to 1934).

[54anickel]

74. Great report. Thanks for posting it UIA. n/t

[ozymandius]

27. What the hell is going on?

10:49


Dow 10,633.55 +23.93 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,017.99 +10.47 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,144.36 +3.37 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.009% -0.041

[UpInArms]

36. dollar is getting pounded

Last trade 86.24 Change -0.80 (-0.92%)

as of 2004-02-24 10:25:27 ET

(edited for html)

[54anickel]

38. Dunno. The NASDAQ was below the psychologically important 2K

Not sure what's "up" with the rest.
What was that important S&P number from the Wrap up a couple of days ago?

[54anickel]

45. Here it is

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

First of all, let's take a look at the hourly charts for NASDAQ, and the SP. Notice that both indices are still in rising channels, and neither has violated channel support. In fact, the SP can fall to 1139, and NASDAQ can fall to 2015 without violating channel support. Consequently, we have our first set of parameters for next week. As long as the SP and NASDAQ do not have a daily close below the levels we just mentioned, the trend is still positive, and the balance of power will shift in favor of a bullish resolution for the short-term.

[On the Road]

47. On the NASDAQ Comp: Lower Highs and Lower Lows

The very definition of a downtrend. Dow and S&P aren't there, but in a rally they usually follow rather than lead.

[54anickel]

48. Reserves could hasten Asian integration

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/geted.pl5?eo20040224a1.htm

snip>
...At the regional level, there has been progress in initiating policy dialogue, sharing resources and developing bond markets.

One example is the ASEAN-plus-Three Economic Review and Policy Dialogue, under which staff of finance ministries and central banks of the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan and South Korea, meet twice a year to review policies.

There is also the Chiang Mai Initiative of bilateral swaps and the ASEAN-plus-Three Asian bond market initiative, in which for the first time actions are being taken at a regional level. Like cooperative efforts in Europe, these efforts are designed to complement rather than compete with ongoing global efforts.

A more advanced form of macroeconomic cooperation would involve exchange-rate policies and a single currency, but this is not yet in sight for East Asia. Although exchange-rate coordination would promote intraregional trade, one of the drivers of East Asia's rebound, it is not yet feasible because it requires macroeconomic coordination. With further progress in policy dialogue and resource sharing, cooperation on exchange rates will become increasingly feasible.

In addition, East Asia's accumulation of reserves -- which have more than doubled since the crisis to an unprecedented $1.4 trillion -- could provide a fillip to monetary and financial cooperation. Large current account surpluses and, more recently, capital inflows and foreign-exchange intervention policies account for the jump.

snip>
Calls for more exchange-rate flexibility, which would mean a quicker transition to a more flexible regime in East Asia, could provide a boost to monetary and financial cooperation. Rising intraregional trade would provide an incentive for other countries to follow suit in adopting a basket-pegged regime. This could eventually lead to the East Asian region adopting a common basket comprising the U.S. dollar, yen and the euro -- and, in the longer term, a single currency.

[ozymandius]

53. final numbers

before I have to go for the day.

12:49
Dow 10,593.25 -16.37 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,010.31 +2.79 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,141.76 +0.77 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.009% -0.041

You folks have a wonderful afternoon! Thanks all for the lively discourse. :hi:

Ozymandius

[UpInArms]

55. Greenspin pushes for Adjustable Rate Mortgages?

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Promos/P75789.asp

Power Poll: Fixed or adjustable rate mortgage?


The chairman of the Federal Reserve said yesterday homeowners might be better served moving from the traditional fixed-rate mortgage.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said traditional fixed-rate mortgages may be costing consumers thousand of dollars a year, the Wall Street Journal reported. Speaking to the Credit Union National Association on Monday, Greenspan said Americans “clearly like the certainly of fixed mortgage payments,” but homeowners could find better deals by managing their own interest rate risks, the paper reported.

"American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage," Greenspan said, according to the Journal. Fixed rate mortgages do provide protection against a jump in rates, but consumer may be paying too much for that safety net.

Today Greenspan spoke to lawmakers and urged them to stem the growth of government-backed mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs).

So where does Greenspin park his brain these days?

[54anickel]

56. Huh, what's up with that? Paying too much for that safety net? Stem

the growth of gov't backed mortgage funds?

[kysrsoze]

57. F-that! I have a big question too.

There is no way I'd do an ARM right now. Rates are still ridiculously low. You're asking for serious trouble doing an ARM. The only way for rates to go long-term is up. And given Peak Oil, eroding consumer confidence, masked inflation, falling dollar and weak jobs, I see everything changing sometime in the near future, certainly within the next 5 years.

Now, here is my question:

How can the govt. say that inflation isn't happening. EVERYTHING is going up in price. Gas, food, housing, heating/elec, electronic, cars, etc. are all going up in price. I've seen some real hefty increases on imported items.

So how does this equate to low inflation?

[54anickel]

61. Did you check out the poll at that link? 32% say they'd take an ARM

[Frodo]

59. Boy is THAT a mistake.

This might have been good advice a few years ago, but getting an ARM at this point could be a disaster! I fully admit the man is smarter than I am, but this makes no sense as reported.


Now, I will agree to one point. People don't always get the RIGHT mortgage. Plenty of people don't intend to live in a house for more than a few years - in which case a 5/1,5/25,7/1,7/23 ARM might be the more intelligent move. I could also see that young couples on the very early fringe of their income curve might get an ARM because they expect to make quite a bit more in a couple years.


BUT in a rising rate market (or at least the EXPECTATION of rising rates) it would seem smart to lock that in if there is ANY real possibility of owning the home long-term.

If inflation shoots up and rates go back into the double-digits you'll sleep a lot sounder with a fixed-rate mortgage that you locked in under 6%.

[54anickel]

60. Greenspan: Mortgage Debt May Be Threat

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=509&u=/ap/20040224/ap_on_bi_ge/greenspan_mortgage_giants_2&printer=1

Greenspan said that the two institutions, popularly known as Fannie and Freddie, have grown to be among the largest financial institutions in the United States and now stand behind $4 trillion of home mortgages, or more than three-fourths of the single-family mortgages in the United States.

Greenspan said he believed both institutions have managed their financial risks well to date, but he said that he believed risks would rise if the two institutions allowed their debt levels to grow in the future without any restraints.

He said that "future systemic difficulties" could be considered likely and he urged Congress to take action "sooner rather than later."

With his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Greenspan put his considerable influence on financial matters behind a growing effort to overhaul the two institutions, which financial competitors contend have become too big and now threaten the security of the financial system.

[54anickel]

68. Hinting to a long deflationary period? Nah.

edit to add link:
http://www.comstockfunds.com/html/TheBubble.htm

COMSTOCK PARTNERS, INC.
The Bubble, Deflation, and Implications for Real Estate
by Charles Minter & Martin Weiner

We have written many research pieces and daily comments describing what we believe to be the highest probability outcome from the most outrageous financial mania in all history. We concluded that the excess capacity and record debt levels that were associated with the mania would produce deflation here in the U.S. and possibly worldwide. This paper will discuss each of these areas and also direct your attention to the implications for real estate and housing prices.

snip>
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America estimates that the total volume of mortgage loans in 2002 is a record $2.5 trillion. The Federal Reserve estimates that homeowners raised $130 billion last year through home equity loans and lines of credit. (Total cash-outs of all home refinancing could be as high as $250 billion.) Many of these home equity loans are used in place of credit card debt since the interest rates are much more favorable. However, while credit card lenders can only sue a borrower and request a lien on the property, the problem with home equity loans is that the bank can seize the property. This would very rarely be a problem with housing prices going up, and home prices have increased over 40% on average since 1997, with some areas like New York (especially Long Island), Phoenix, and Denver increasing much more than the average. However, there are other areas where the home prices have softened, such as the Midwest (St. Paul, and Indianapolis) and Southeast. In these areas the banks have their hands full as delinquencies and foreclosures are rampant. Just last month the U.S. hit a near record delinquency rate and a record foreclosure rate, with almost all coming from the areas of soft home prices. If home prices that have been skyrocketing start to fall we could have a snowball effect and delinquencies and foreclosures could really get out of hand.

snip>
Right now real estate and housing are the pillars of the individual's investment portfolio, and if that cracks, it could be the catalyst that throws the U.S. into the same economic quagmire that it went through 74 years ago. When you look at the record foreclosures and near record delinquencies on mortgage debt as well as rising vacancy rates in every area of real estate you start to come to the conclusion that the banks and other lending institutions could be making the same mistake again.



more...

[Frodo]

69. Good point.

He could be saying rates are NOT going way up from here, that they may fall if/when things go south (right after the election of course).

But it's gotten so cheap to re-finance that I would't take the risk of a short-term ARM just because rates were going down. I'd wait for them to go down and then refinance. Fully priced-out ARMS aren't THAT much lower than fixed-rate securites.

[54anickel]

66. 2:13 update and blather

Dow 10,559.40 -50.22 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,005.37 -2.15 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,138.81 -2.18 (-0.19%)
30-yr Bond 4.915% -0.002

From last weeks technical analysis

First of all, let's take a look at the hourly charts for NASDAQ, and the SP. Notice that both indices are still in rising channels, and neither has violated channel support. In fact, the SP can fall to 1139, and NASDAQ can fall to 2015 without violating channel support. Consequently, we have our first set of parameters for next week. As long as the SP and NASDAQ do not have a daily close below the levels we just mentioned, the trend is still positive, and the balance of power will shift in favor of a bullish resolution for the short-term.

2:00PM: The Dow dipped in a noticeable fashion in the last half an hour, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are continuing to vacillate around the flat-line, with the S&P 500 currently in the red and the Nasdaq outperforming its blue-chip counterparts on a relative basis... The last week proved to be a struggle for the stock market, which has failed to make headway to the upside...

As mentioned previously, the Nasdaq topped its five consecutive down weeks with a 1.5% loss in yesterday's session, erasing the bulk of its year-to-date gains in the process after being higher by as much as 7.5% earlier in the year... Despite the market's lackluster trade, characterized by valuation concerns and a seeming loss of upside momentum, Briefing.com believes long-term investors should maintain exposure to stocks, practicing conservative investment discipline... Given the market's favorable fundamentals, we remain moderately bullish on the market longer-term...NYSE Adv/Dec 1635/1576, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1437/1674

Edit to add last weeks tech analysis

[UpInArms]

70. looking for that missing PPI report, I found this

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2001863762_dunphy24.html

The Newsletter: Slight bump in Seattle- area prices

Prices for groceries, housing and energy rose in January in the Seattle-Tacoma- Bremerton area, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Labor Department group does a full consumer-price-index report every other month but reports on those three key costs monthly.

Grocery prices advanced 0.6 percent in January. Compared with one year ago, they were 1.4 percent higher. The shelter index rose 0.5 percent over the month but was unchanged over the past 12 months.

Dominated by increasing gasoline prices, the index for energy advanced 3 percent in January and 8.6 percent over the year. Gasoline prices were up 5.5 percent in January and 16 percent higher than January 2003. The cost of natural gas for heating has increased sharply the past year: The natural-gas- services index advanced 33 percent from January 2003 to last month.

Another bureau-report measure looks at consumer prices for the 13 westernmost states. Overall prices rose 0.6 percent for consumers in January, slightly higher than the 0.5 percent increase nationally. Prices in the West had declined 0.1 percent in December.

<snip>

The risk of economic slowdown later this year has increased. Interest rates are expected to rise. With housing and refinancing activities slowing, consumer spending could soften. Auto production could be hurt by both higher interest rates and rising inventory of unsold cars. The effects of the tax cuts and the tax refunds will dissipate gradually.

The lackluster growth in jobs is a big concern. The high price of oil is another negative factor. On bonds, a possible reduction of purchases of Treasuries by foreign central banks is a risk. During fiscal 2003, foreigners bought two-thirds of new Treasury securities ($260 billion out of $374 billion). Today, foreigners hold 42 percent ($1.5 trillion out of $3.6 trillion) in marketable Treasuries outstanding.

...more...

[TrogL]

73. Don't ya just love that Plunge Protection Team

[UpInArms]

75. final numbers

Dow 10,566.37 -43.25 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,005.44 -2.08 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,139.09 -1.90 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.029% -0.021

[54anickel]

77. Dang, beat me to it while I was in the middle of composing. ;-)

[54anickel]

76. Closing numbers, blather and notes

Dow 10,566.37 -43.25 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,005.44 -2.08 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,139.09 -1.90 (-0.17%)
30-yr Bond 4.899% -0.018

Notes:
NASDAQ closed above the psychologically important level of 2000, but missed the technical requirement noted last week of closing above 2015 (did hit it intra-day) The days range was 1,991.05 - 2,018.07 with the low coming just before "all the fuss".

S&P closed above the technical requirement of 1139 (barely) The days range was 1,134.61 - 1,144.52 the low coming around 2:30 pm before both the NASDAQ and S&P began to rise. (No reason given for the rise in the daily blather log.)

Blather:
Close: Covering ranges of roughly 115, 10, and 27 points for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, respectively, today's market was choppy and relatively trendless, as an early breakdown was followed by a rally attempt, which ultimately failed, causing the major averages to weaken and close well off their respective session highs, shaping up for the fifth consecutive down session for the major averages...
Through the session, ongoing valuation concerns were juxtaposed with the market's bullish longer-term fundamentals, augmented by the historically-low interest rates, mild inflation, and the Fed's commitment to an accommodative policy... The result was a whipsaw trading pattern, with sharp upswings and similarly exaggerated retreats... Looking at the closing totals, though, the session didn't do much damage as the major averages posted only mild declines, although the Nasdaq did manage its third consecutive close below its 50-day simple moving average at 2044... The sector action was relatively uninspiring, with the bulk of the groups little changed...

Laggards of note included the internet, networking, broker/dealer, airline, food retail, and aerospace & defense sectors, while among the leaders to the upside were the gold, oil services, paper packaging, and home entertainment software groups... Elsewhere, the bond market rallied in the earlier going in reaction to the Consumer Confidence Index, which checked in at 87.3 (consensus 92.3), but ended the session with the 10-year note up only 3/32, bringing its yield down to 4.03%... The stock market, for its part, largely ignored today's only economic report due to its small correlation with spending patterns and, accordingly, limited predictive value...

The technical analysis referenced:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

First of all, let's take a look at the hourly charts for NASDAQ, and the SP. Notice that both indices are still in rising channels, and neither has violated channel support. In fact, the SP can fall to 1139, and NASDAQ can fall to 2015 without violating channel support. Consequently, we have our first set of parameters for next week. As long as the SP and NASDAQ do not have a daily close below the levels we just mentioned, the trend is still positive, and the balance of power will shift in favor of a bullish resolution for the short-term.

[54anickel]

78. Tuesday link just updated. Need to refer to the archive for technical

analysis posted here:
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/2004/0217.html

Apologies for any confusion.