WP: Economic Forecasts Were Off

[kskiska]

White House Predicted Surplus and More Jobs

By Dana Milbank
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 24, 2004; Page A01

President Bush last week caused a stir when he declined to endorse a projection, made by his own Council of Economic Advisers, that the economy would add 2.6 million jobs this year. But that forecast, derided as wildly optimistic, was one of the more modest predictions the administration has made about the economy over the past three years.

Two years ago, the administration forecast that there would be 3.4 million more jobs in 2003 than there were in 2000. And it predicted a budget deficit for fiscal 2004 of $14 billion. The economy ended up losing 1.7 million jobs over that period, and the budget deficit for this year is on course to be $521 billion.

These are not isolated cases. Over three years, the administration has repeatedly and significantly overstated the government's fiscal health and the number of jobs the economy would create, but economists and politicians disagree about why.

The president, though not addressing the predictions directly, regularly points to four events that altered economic expectations: the recession; the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks; the corporate governance scandals; and war in Iraq. "We've been through a lot," Bush said in an economics speech Thursday. "But we acted, here in Washington. I led."

more…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A538-2004Feb23.html

[papau]

1. "here in Washington. I led" is slight error- "here in Washington. I lied"

:-)

[ewagner]

2. Bingo!

The newest talking points are about Bush* being a decisive leader. We have to keep hammering that "decisive leader" means "liar".

Start with the fact that Iraq does not symbolize Leadership but the huge lie that Iraq had something to do with 9/11. No immediate threat. Distracted resources from war on terrorism.

[sandnsea]

17. led us to disaster

Let him take credit for that kind of leadership, okay by me. How much more obvious can it get.

Bush led.

Instead of creating 3.4 million more jobs, he lost 1.75 million. Instead of a budget deficit of $14 billion, it's $521 billion.

It's time for Bush to be led home. (Or led to the hangin' tree at the end of a rope!)

[grytpype]

3. Page A01.

Finally. It's getting to be the mainstream position to think that the Bush Administration are a bunch of farking liars.

[darkstar]

4. Gack!

<<<<<<The president, though not addressing the predictions directly, regularly points to four events that altered economic expectations: the recession; the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks; the corporate governance scandals; and war in Iraq. "We've been through a lot," Bush said in an economics speech Thursday. "But we acted, here in Washington. I led.">>>>>

3 out of 4 events happened prior to the predictions the article is disussing, correct? Would it kill the lib media to point that out? And as per ewagoner re: #4, "I'm decisive" doesn't wash when it's synonymous with rushed, rash, and just plain wrong.

[wellst0nev0ter]

14. And Dana Milbank Is Supposed To Be One Of The BETTER Writers

Oh well, it could be worse :eyes:

[darkstar]

16. Yeah,

I'd call mental images of a nekkid W doing his best to make the numbers add up--"maybe I should just carry the 1 into the bajillions column"--far worse....

Thanks for the laff.

[UpInArms]

5. this paragraph is exceedingly misleading

Economists agree that economic forecasts are often unreliable, but they say there is at least one plausible explanation for the discrepancies of recent years: The Bush administration, like the Clinton administration before it and like most private economists, assumed that tax revenue and jobs would rise or fall with the gross domestic product in the same proportions as they had in previous recoveries.

The truth is that the tax cuts and the falling corporate taxes have resulted in massive gaps that this mal-administration covers up with its lies

http://www.cbpp.org/10-16-03tax.htm

Treasury Department figures show that actual corporate income tax revenues fell to $132 billion in 2003, down 36 percent from $207 billion in 2000.

As a result of these low levels, corporate revenues in 2003 represented only 1.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (the basic measure of the size of the economy), the lowest level since 1983, the year in which corporate receipts plummeted to levels last seen in the 1930s.

Corporate revenues represented only 7.4 percent of all federal tax receipts in 2003. With the exception of 1983, this represents the lowest level on record (these data go back to 1934).

[TomSeaver]

7. How can anyone

in there right mind vote for Bush AGAIN? I'm still trying to figure out what good things he has done since he took over. All he can run on is scaring people into thinking there will be another terroist attack.

[Wwagsthedog]

11. Welcome to DU TomSeaver

Glad to have you aboard!

[UpInArms]

12. Truly good to have you at DU, TomSeaver!

:hi:

[newyawker99]

20. Hi TomSeaver!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[darkstar]

8. Good snag

and sourcing, UIA.

:toast:

[UpInArms]

10. thanks darkstar

I have been researching this issue for a while now - and used these exact figures to substantiate my opinion

here's my latest http://thomasmc.com/0223bg.htm

[Mari333]

13. I better invest in Euros eh?

I am in the stock market now. I have my whole savings in there. I am wondering what to invest in. Its being invested mostly in bonds and conservative stocks, but Im afraid of the dollar and if Warren Buffet is buying Euros instead of dollars (he has been for 2 years), then thats good enough for me.

[alcuno]

6. "declined to endorse?" He signed the economic report.

Why doesn't the Post say he signed it? Instead they say "declined to endorse?"

[ewagner]

15. Excellent point

I'd like to see him answer this: Does he actually read anything he signs? Does he agree with what he signed.?

[radfringe]

19. his signature is his endorsement

CEO's are now required to sign off on financial reports. This was enacted to make CEO's responsible and accountable for what is in the reports.

No different on this report - bush* signed it this means he's responsible and accountable for it's content

[Old and In the Way]

9. Appears to be a strong correlation between tax cuts and job losses.

So I guess Bush is asking for permanent job losses when he asks for permanent tax cuts.

[Lexingtonian]

18. "God, I am _such_ a leader"

seems to be between the lines of everything he says these days. It annoys me far more than the 'he's such a Good Christian' canard.

Unassisted he couldn't lead anyone out of a paper bag.

[htuttle]

21. Is the word 'Off' a synonym...

...for 'Fiction'?

In this case, it should be.

"Economic Forecasts Were Fiction"

Now that's the truth.