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You obviously have a lot more first hand experience and knowledge, than I, a casual observer, do. Much for me to think about...
I'll start with the Rwanda reference. No, I don't think that 5000 troops would have prevented that particular genocide, unless they were mandated to replace the Rwandan government or otherwise force the government to change its policy of initiating and promoting the genocide In my naive and highly-idealized best case scenario, I had envisioned a force coming in as soon as it became clear that the Hutus were using the local media to incite ethnic violence. Obviously not all the deaths could have been prevented, but if they had shut down the radio stations and imposed a strict curfew/martial law (backed up with a willingness to use automatic weapons, if necessary) then I wonder if the casualties couldn't have been drastically reduced. Just enough overwhelming force to deter marauding Hutu gangs from hacking their Tutsi neighbors to bits. But upon further reflection I admit this would probably require a lot more than 5000 troops.
I once saw film footage from a documentary shot DURING the violence as the Belgians/UN troops (I forget which), were evacuating - there was footage of a bunch of terrified and completely unarmed Tutsis cowering in the bushes near a church/school compound - they knew what was going on and feared for their lives. They were begging the soliders to leave them weapons - anything with which to fight back. Of course this didn't happen and they were all found massacred in the church - hacked to death. I can't help but wonder how even ONE automatic weapon and a small amount of ammo might have altered that ghastly outcome.
Regarding your comments on the LRA - although I didn't know it was the case in Uganda specifically, I realize that many such conflicts are multipartite, and terribly complex at the local level: multiple ethinic groups, religions, rebel factions, etc, all vying for control. Again, my naive optimism wonders whether a blanket intervention in such areas couldn't be the stick that forces opposing factions to the bargaining table once the chaos is stabilized a bit. A very big stick: 'You can disarm now and enter into negotiations or you can keep fighting and we'll eventually eradicate you, and maybe whoever's left after we get through will be a bit more sensible.' This would also be a good opportunity to twist the arm of the ruling government to address the grievances of their opposition, if they're reasonable. I know, it sounds good on paper, but in the real world it's probably not going to happen.
A few specific comments:
The history of Acoliland, the current regime, the military, various ever-changing agenda and alliances, economic interests, mirrors in and with neighboring countries, the agenda of the international community, all real-life gordian complexity to account while one gets to figuring out what the LRA might want. Which in itself, is a question that leads to many more: what does the LRA want; are they one or two or several factions; was a particular incident perpetrated by true LRA, or bandits, or gov't troops? Displaced camps - forced migration and set-up as targets? I definitely agree that the approach I'm describing is fraught with peril and uncertainty - in the absence of good intelligence (preferably from ostensibly unbiased observers such as NGOs) it would be very easy to make a mistake: to blame the wrong faction, to be tricked into using force against those who are innocent, etc.
Specifically regarding the LRA - based on what I've read about them in the media, I'm disinclined to worry too much about what they want. Call me callous or impatient, but when a group kidnaps impoverished children, brutalizes them, forces them to kill, I feel that their political goals are irrelevant and they should be liquidated. In my eyes, such people, having committed those atrocities, forfeit their right to have their political agenda addressed by peaceful means. Or in other words, the position of the UN in such cases should not be: "Please stop hacking off people's limbs (cf. Sierra Leone), and come to the bargaining table...", but rather "Hacking off people's limbs is going to bring about the quick and brutal end of your insurrection." Again, good intel is the key here - we all know that ruling governments brutalize their own populations and then blame it on the rebels (and vice versa..) Sigh...
Meanwhile, someone's arming the LRA. Yeah, curbing the international weapons trade is another Sisyphesian task...
Let's you and I make an agreement - if either of us finds a genie in a bottle, that'll be one of our three wishes...we toast on it...(clink!) I will definitely drink to that...
Cordially, -SM
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