According to this report by The Center for Automotive Research:
CAR Research Memorandum:
The Impact on the U.S. Economy of a Major
Contraction of the Detroit Three Automakers
Summary
A full or partial contraction of the Detroit Three would have the following impacts on the
U.S. economy:
Total Impacts After 3 Years
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Personal Income ($ billions)--------------Scenario 1 -398.2----------Scenario 2 -275.7
Combined loss of tax receipts and increase in
transfer payments ($ billions)------------Scenario 1 -156.4----------Scenario 2 -108.1
The model represents only the impacts resulting from the initial contraction of the Detroit
Three within the U.S. economy. It is reasonable to expect that a permanent contraction
in the U.S. auto industry would negatively impact the auto industries of Canada and
Mexico, since producers in these regions rely heavily upon U.S.-produced parts and
components. This interdependency of the NAFTA automotive producers means that the
total economic impacts presented here underestimate the full impact of the scenarios.
The decline of Detroit Three production in Canada and Mexico would result in further
U.S. losses in employment, income, and government revenues. Finally, the bankruptcy
of any of the Detroit automakers may have serious implications for their pension funds
and the level of obligations of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, as well as
funding of the nation’s health care system. The Detroit Three are directly and indirectly
responsible for funding the health care of 2 million employees, retirees, and dependents
of their own companies and their suppliers.
Full report:
http://www.cargroup.org/documents/FINALDetroitThreeContractionImpact_3__002.pdf