Android sales to outstrip iPhone by '12?

[WriteDown]

Source: CNET

The iPhone's lead over smartphone upstart Android may be short-lived, according to an industry watcher's predictions.

Android smartphone sales will outstrip iPhone sales by 2012, market researcher Informa Telecoms & Media has predicted in a new report.

Last month, Telefonica Europe said that sales of the iPhone topped 1 million in the U.K. Although T-Mobile UK--the exclusive carrier of the first Android device, the G1--wouldn't say exactly how many of the devices had been sold, it did say the handset now accounts for 20 percent of its contract sales.

Web behemoth Google released the first beta developers kit for its Android open OS platform in August, with the first handset--the G1 smartphone--launching the following month. A second handset, the Magic, is expected to arrive next month....

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10191525-94.html?tag=TOCmoreStories.0

---

Google vs. Apple is going to be interesting.

[Sultana]

1. Si, very

I am an Apple girl but I also love Google....:think:

[Oregone]

2. Google will probably win...

Regardless, humans will continue to lose.

[Xithras]

3. Nope. It's Apple vs. Linux.

Google may have funded the Android concept initially, but it's fully open source and in the hands of an open development community today. You could take Android, rename it WriteDownOS, and resell it to whatever phone company would buy it from you.

The real battle here is "The most closed and proprietary computing company in existence today" versus "the most open and free software community in the history of computing".

It will be interesting to see who comes out on top (my money is NOT on Apple).

[onehandle]

7. Linux has been around for a long, long time. So have Apple and Microsoft.

And yet Apple and Microsoft continue to dominate. And Apple is the most profitable consumer electronic company out there.

My Mom doesn't use Linux. My brother's kids don't use Linux.

Still waiting for Linux to crush them all as Linux users predict.

Now?

How about now?

[Xithras]

20. You're missing the giant pink elephant.

Why has Linux never taken off among mainstream users? SOFTWARE. People can't get the applications they want on Linux, so they buy whatever platform has them.

The reality of computer operating systems is that the overwhelming majority of people couldn't give a rats patootie what OS their computer runs. They simply want to know if it will run their programs.

The iPhone was a technological marvel when it was launched, but its hardware has now been matched by other competitors. What keeps them ahead of the curve? The fact that the iPhone has cooler software than anything else. It has the apps people want, so it's what they buy.

The problem is that Apple has been very tight fisted when it comes to allowing others to write apps for their platform. You can get the SDK, but have to pay them a hefty fee to distribute your application to iPhone users. And if they don't like your app, or if they think it competes with something they want to protect, or if they don't like the functionality it adds, they can reject it outright (something they've done several times). Apple treats the iPhone like it treats the rest of its products...as a closely guarded piece of IP that can only be used by those it really likes.

So here's the pink elephant. Nokia, Motorola, et al, want to build an iPhone competing device, but Apple won't license the OS. Android offers comparable functionality and can run on anything. Once these devices hit the market, many of the third party developers writing iPhone apps are going to port to Android simply because it's free, and it's an additional market. All of those applications that were rejected by Apple (including that mobile podcasting application) will be deployed onto Android. All of the developers who didn't want to mess with Apple when developing their apps are going to target Android. Oh...and tens of thousands of bored Linux hackers worldwide are going to port their applications to Android simply because that's what they do.

In other words, in a few years the bleeding edge SOFTWARE will be on Android, not the iPhone.

And it's the software that gets the sales.


Oh, and I almost forgot the annoying little mouse scaring the pink elephant: Linux has also failed to take off because there have been no concerted efforts by major manufacturers to push Linux on the desktop. Why not? Because they have longstanding relationships with Microsoft that they're not eager to upset. Nokia, Motorola, LG, and the other phone manufacturers have no such relationship with Apple. In fact, most would be more than happy to crush them and drive them out of the market.

[apnu]

26. Well said! I wish I could rec. a post.

:toast:

[onehandle]

31. Thanks for making my point.

"Because they have longstanding relationships with Microsoft that they're not eager to upset."

And now Apple.

Enjoy your hobby platform.

[Xithras]

36. What is your point? None of the phone manufacturers have relationships with Apple.

Nokia? Nope.
Samsung? Nope.
LG? Nope.
Motorola? Nope.
Sony Ericsson? Nope.

So who does have an existing relationship with Apple? Only Apple itself!

LG, Motorola, Samsung, and Sony Ericsson are already onboard with the OHA, which is behind Android. Nokia has made some noises that they might be interested if the market proves itself.

So a buyers choice in a few years will be this: They can buy an Apple, which only runs Apple software that is only produced by a decreasing number of developers. OR, they can buy an Android derived phone from any of the other manufacturers, which will have ten times the software available, will match the iPhone feature for feature, and which will be truly platform independent. They will be able to buy software for their LG, knowing full well that it will run fine on the Samsung or Sony that replaces it in a few years.

In all honesty, this is starting to look like 1985 all over again. Apple controls the market now, but a CHEAPER and less restrictive platform is entering the market, and hardware manufacturers are climbing onboard with the new competitor to take them down. I guess we'll find out if Jobs learned his lesson last time, or if he's going to stick to the same tight-fisted, closed-platform business model that almost killed Apple in the 1980's.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

45. I see an unusual amount of emotion in your posts about this subject.

Why is that?

[sofa king]

38. Cogent observations, there.

Interestingly, a few months back I heard some people who rely heavily on their phones talking. They all agreed that it was the business-directed software and applications that stood the Blackberry apart from everyone else. Apple, they said, would never win a foothold in the serious business market because they'd never catch up with the Blackberry guys.

I think all that changed once Apple put out an SDK and their programmer base ballooned. But, as you say, Android is already set up to outpace Apple by leaps and bounds. Apple and Blackberry had better be thinking about that.

The other end of it is that if Google decides to do everyone else in by distributing the phones for free (and paying for the service through their sterling ad revenues), I'll be able to afford one.

[onehandle]

4. Android is a platform. The iPhone is a device.

And new iPhones are being developed.

We'll see...

[CatholicEdHead]

5. The iPhone will surge ahead after the AT&T deal ends

and you can have it on any carrier.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. When does the AT&T exclusive deal end? n/t

[onehandle]

10. 2010, but AT&T extended the deal once. I bet they will extend it again.

They are currently starting a massive overhaul of their network to expand 3G and prepare for 4G.

[WriteDown]

13. You can already jailbreak the iphone 3G....

pretty easily so its no longer a matter of being tied to a network. I just wish I could get the darn thing untied from iTunes.

[IrishBuckeye]

37. except not many users do this, it voids the warrenty. /nm

/nm

[awoke_in_2003]

21. Bingo...

the only reason I bought my iPod Touch and not an iPhone was AT&T. When they go away, I will be spending more money :)

[FudaFuda]

6. I'll be happy when they eliminate the phone part.

I love gadgets. I love the internet. I love the idea of a palm-sized music player, video player, web browser, word processor, personal organizer ... but I hate phones. Rudest invention ever.

[Pab Sungenis]

12. They have an iPhone without the phone already

It's called the "iPod Touch."

The big problem with the iPhone is that it doesn't have enough storage. 16 Gb just isn't enough any more.

[Ian David]

16. iPod Touch isn't a wireless web browser with GPS. n/t

[FudaFuda]

17. yeah I know about the Touch

and I agree 16GB doesn't cut it. Hell even my 30GB Zune is full. But does the Touch do internet?? See, I do want broadband internet everywhere I go (along with massive storage), but no phone.

I know, ain't gonna happen.

[awoke_in_2003]

22. Yes, the Touch does internet...

I bought it instead of the iPhone because I didn't like AT&T. I think it is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

[FudaFuda]

23. holy moly. I'll look into it then. Thx. n/t

[awoke_in_2003]

24. you're welcome...

and welcome to DU. I absolutely love it. It is nice to check your email at the airport without cracking open the laptop.

[BlueIdaho]

29. And the Touch can do VoIP too...

I'm saving my pennies for one. Does anyone know if there are any problems taking a US iPod Touch to the UK and using it there?

[Tesha]

32. The Touch also does 32 GB right now. (NT)

[demoborn47]

9. If it can link up with my MAC

maybe I'd get one. But if not, no thanks... Windows has and will always suck. I don't care who sells more if it can't do what I want and work like an Apple, you can keep it.

[n2doc]

11. So easy to make predictions. So hard to get them right n/t

[damntexdem]

14. Given the way the economy is going, they may only have to sell one to do that.

;-)

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[demoborn47]

18. nice one

good point

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

19. I'm very disappointed

When I saw the headline, I thought it was about androids like Data (Star Trek Next Generation) or Kryton (Red Dwarf). An android like those would definitely outsell a mere phone! (No, I have neither one of these phones, obviously)

[ConcernedCanuk]

27. ME TOO! - imagine having your own Data - never need to feed it, no litter needed

.
.
.

Just plug it in to recharge it now and then,

or just shut it off if you're not in the mood for company.

If we survive long enough, I'm sure it will happen.

[LiberalLovinLug]

25. Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated

Mark Twain said it, but it could equally apply to Apple at various times in the last few decades.

Of course i am biased as a loyal Apple user (I have had training and have worked using Windows as well).
The only thing I worry about is Steve Jobs health. I hope that his eventually demise will not end the innovation at Apple.

The in-house development and exclusivity of their OS and quality control of manufacturing of their products have served them and consumers well. I like the philosophical theory of open source, but in practice it becomes a free-for-all jumble of ad-hoc amateurs all writing their own apps which are constantly being debugged and then suddenly suspended.

As long as a corporation is as creative and forward thinking as Apple, it works out well.
But they need Google access to keep ahead. Is there a way that Google can deny Apple iPhone users access?

[Cronus Protagonist]

28. Slam dunk for Linux

Mac users are already pissed about the lack of 3G in the first generation and the lack of multimedia text messaging, not to mention the plethora of other complaints about the iPhone. Google won't have any of these problems, and their phone will have more, and more useful applications available.

[Tesha]

33. Only in your dreams are we pissed. (NT)

[Cronus Protagonist]

34. Really?

This only took me 3 seconds to do.

www.google.com/search?q=mac+users+pissed+about+lack+of+3G

A lot less that it took you to claim otherwise. Sorry, you failed. Perhaps you meant you alone, in which case, good luck with your brick, especially when it needs a new battery. :)

[Tesha]

40. The set of "all iPhone users" is much larger than the set of "pissed-off iPhone users"

"We" happy ones are clearly in the majority.

By the way, there are now more than 27,000
iPhone apps in the App Store (per "Information
Week" yesterday. How many Android apps are
there?

Tesha (and posted from my iPhone)

[Xenotime]

41. Apple is more green therefore better for environment.

Can Google say the same? I don't think so.

[Cronus Protagonist]

43. Well, yes Google can say the same, more so in fact

Google isn't flooding the landfills with old beige boxes and mercury filled screens and hasn't been doing that for the last 20 years unlike Apple. Clearly Google is more "Green" than Apple by any objective measure. And none of that matters anyway. We're talking about phones here, and Google will win any phone war. IMHO.

[johnnydrama]

30. they aren't comparable.

Iphone is one device on one carrier.

Android will be multiple devices on multiple carriers.

The iphone is hardware, Android is software.

[onehandle]

39. CNET isn't known for logic.

They picked up one prediction and blew it up to make an exciting headline.

They do this all the time and often get the details wrong.

[Lost in CT]

35. And when you lose your Android phone just send this guy to find it.

[Javaman]

42. didn't they say this about the zune? nt

[MilesColtrane]

44. Informa Telecoms & Media is assuming that the iPhone is a static product.

Who knows what it will look like and what it can do by 2012?

It may look like a pair of Ray-Bans by then.