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Even as he put the best possible gloss on the state of the US economy, Greenspan was forced to recognise that the sharp increase in the budget deficit contained dangers both in the short and long term. The deficit, he noted, had risen to $375 billion in the 2003 fiscal year and “appears to be widening considerably in the current fiscal year” with current projections indicating that “very sizable deficits are in prospect in the years to come.”
The imbalance in the federal budgetary situation would soon pose “serious longer-term fiscal difficulties” especially due to the retirement of the “baby-boom generation” in the next few years. “Without corrective action, this development will put substantial pressure on our ability in coming years to provide even minimal government services while maintaining entitlement benefits at their current level, without debilitating increase in tax rates. The longer we wait before addressing these imbalances, the more wrenching the fiscal adjustment will ultimately be.”
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BusinessWeek noted that projected deficits over the next decade run to around $2.4 trillion but that if Bush succeeds in his campaign to make the temporary tax cuts permanent, then “the red ink would exceed $5.2 trillion.” In other words, if the tax cuts are made permanent, the deficit will be 100 percent worse than at present.
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Greenspan’s vigorous defence of the Bush tax cuts recalls editorial comments made by the Financial Times on the tax cut plan last May. It said that the “lunatics were now in charge of the asylum” with “more extreme Republicans” set on creating a fiscal disaster as way of destroying social welfare programs. “Proposing to slash federal spending,” the editorial noted, “particularly on social programs, is a tricky electoral proposition, but a fiscal crisis offers the tantalising prospect of forcing such cuts through the back door.”
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2004/feb2004/gpan-f16.shtml