STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday January 9

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday January 9, 2009

DAYS REMAINING UNTIL BUSH IS GONE = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those who predicted the Dow's precipitous return on Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 8, 2009

Dow... 8,742.46 -27.24 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq... 1,617.01 +17.95 (+1.12%)
S&P 500... 909.73 +3.08 (+0.34%)
Gold future... 854.50 +12.80 (+1.52%)
30-Year Bond 3.05% -0.02 (-0.68%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.45% -0.05 (-1.96%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Is the Stock Market Cheap?
BY MIKE SHEDLOCK

For the last two months, we have heard round after round of bottom calls and a consistent message of "stocks are cheap." Some make the claim based on a comparison to treasuries. The reality is it makes no sense to compare stocks to treasuries.

What does make sense is to discuss earnings estimates. Here are two charts from a recent report by John Mauldin entitled 2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP.

-see list of diminishing returns-

Think the stock market is cheap? Let's do the math. The S&P closed at 910. If those earnings estimates hold, the effective PE is 21.53. The historical average PE is about 15. At a PE of 15 the S&P would drop to 634. That is a huge drop of 30% from today's closing price.

What happens if the stock market over shoots as it typically does in bear markets? Assume a PE of 12. At 12, one might expect to see the S&P at 507. That would be an even bigger decline of 44% from here.

What About Those S&P Earnings Estimates?

Given that earnings estimates have been falling like a rock, why should anyone assume those estimates are about to improve any time soon?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Average Workweek Dec
Briefing.com 33.5
Consensus 33.5
Prior 33.5

08:30 Hourly Earnings Dec
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Dec
Briefing.com -520K
Consensus -500K
Prior -533K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Dec
Briefing.com 7.0%
Consensus 7.0%
Prior 6.7%

10:00 Wholesale Inventories Nov
Briefing.com -0.7%
Consensus -0.9%
Prior -1.1%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[tclambert]

43. Unemployment when Bush took office: 4.2%

Unemployment when Bush is kicked to the curb: ~7.0%.

The 4.2% number came from the miseryindex website: http://www.miseryindex.us/urbymonth.asp

Here's what they have for recent presidents when they took office:

Eisenhower - 2.9%
Kennedy - 6.6%
Johnson - 5.7%
Nixon - 3.4%
Ford - 5.5%
Carter - 7.5%
Reagan - 7.5%
GHW Bush - 5.4%
Clinton - 7.3%
GWB - 4.2%

6 Republicans, 4 Democrats. Unemployment rose under 5 of the Republicans, 0 of the Democrats; decreased under 1 Republican (Reagan), 3 Democrats; and ended up the same under 1 Democrat (Carter).

For those of us who think jobs are the paramount economic issue (that's Tansy and me, at least), the data clearly indicates Democratic presidents do better than Republicans.

I'll make the prediction that the number will decrease under President Obama, continuing the obvious trend in the data.

[ozymandius]

55. That's a stat worth quoting when the SMW lists the Bush net sum fx disasters.

It will be a tight little list of what neo-conservatism has done to this country. Suitable for printing on a card to carry in your wallet.

[DemReadingDU]

56. Include me in the jobs are paramount economic issue too

Bring back the jobs that get people making the basic necessities - tools, clothes, shoes, maintaining basic infrastructure, etc., etc.

[MadinMo]

63. I second that --- nt

[UpInArms]

77. Total job losses for 2008 was 2.6 million, the largest decline since a 2.750 million drop in 1945.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWEN227520090109

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Employers slashed payrolls by 524,000 in December, driving the unemployment rate to its highest level in almost 16 years, a government report showed on Friday, suggesting that the year-long recession was deepening.

The Labor Department said the national unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent in December, the highest level since January 1993. The jobless rate was 6.8 percent in November.

Analysts polled by Reuters predicted a reduction of 550,000 jobs in December. November's job losses were revised to show a cut of 584,000, previously reported as a 533,000 loss, while October's losses were revised to 423,000 from a decline of 320,000. With those revisions, the total reduction in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in the four months through December was 1.9 million.

The largest number of job losses in December was in services-providing businesses, which shed 273,000 jobs.

Total job losses for 2008 was 2.6 million, the largest decline since a 2.750 million drop in 1945.

[UpInArms]

47. U.S. Dec. payrolls fall 524,000 vs. -500,000 expected

01. U.S. Dec. payrolls fall 524,000 vs. -500,000 expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

02. U.S. Dec. unemployment rate rises to 7.2% vs. 7.1%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

03. U.S. Dec. average hourly earnings up 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

04. U.S. 2008 payrolls fall 2.59 million, most since 1945
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

05. U.S. Oct., Nov. payrolls revised down 157,000
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

06. U.S. Q4 job losses total 1.53 million
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

07. U.S. Dec. unemployment rate highest since Jan. 1993
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

08. U.S. Dec. goods-producing jobs fall 251,000
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

09. U.S. Dec. services-producing jobs fall 273,000
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

10. U.S. Dec. hours worked fall 1.1%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 09, 2009

[UpInArms]

51. Dec Jobs Lost - 524,000 - Nov Jobs rev'd down 157,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-payrolls-fall-524000-December/story.aspx?guid=%7B5D9A2D7A%2D2A7B%2D42E4%2DA30C%2DA61B9D885BED%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy lost 524,000 jobs in December, closing out the worst year for job losses since World War II, the Labor Department said Friday. Nearly 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008, with 1.9 million destroyed in just the past four months, according to a survey of work places. It's the biggest job loss in any calendar year since 1945. The unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years. Unemployment increased by 632,000 to 11.1 million, according to the survey of households.

[UpInArms]

69. Carnage continues with 524,000 jobs lost in Dec. (gotta read the details)

Unemployment rate rises to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years

Note: who was president 16 years ago? oh, that was this POS's daddy - GHWB

"Ah'm gonna pick up whar' ma daddie lef' off," GWB - campaign 2000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Carnage-continues-524000-jobs-lost/story.aspx?guid=%7BF9716B93%2D2009%2D4F9D%2DA2CC%2D6890DA427BF2%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy lost 524,000 jobs in December, closing out the worst year for job losses since World War II, the Labor Department said Friday.

Nearly 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008, with 1.9 million destroyed in just the past four months, according to a survey of work places. It's the biggest job loss in any calendar year since 1945, when 2.75 million jobs were lost as the wartime economy was demobilized.

The unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years. Unemployment increased by 632,000 to 11.1 million, according to the survey of households. That same household survey showed employment falling by 806,000 in December. Read the full report.

In 2008, the unemployment rate rose by 2.3 percentage points and unemployment increased by 3.6 million.

The report was worse than expected, with payrolls in October and November revised lower by a total of 154,000 jobs. November's loss was revised to 584,000, the highest in 24 years.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected payrolls to fall by 500,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 7.1%. See Economic Calendar.

"Overall, a terrible report," concluded Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. "The only possible glimmer of light is that the maximum rate of fall of payrolls is hopefully not far off."

Total hours worked in the economy fell 1.1%, with the average workweek falling to the shortest ever. The number of people working part-time because of the slowing economy rose by 715,000 to 8.04 million.

An alternative measure of unemployment that includes workers too discouraged to look for a job rose to 13.5% from 12.6% in November; it's the highest in the 13 years since those data have been kept.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. Nov NFPs loss was - 690,000 - not the 533,000 reported in Dec!

from the December 5, 2008 Stock Market Watch thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3631981&mesg_id=3632089

NFP drop 533,000! Unemployment @ 6.7%
01. U.S. Nov. payrolls drop 533,000 vs. -350,000 expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

02. U.S. Nov. unemployment rate rises to 6.7% vs. 6.8% expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

03. U.S. nonfarm payroll losses worst since Dec. 1974
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

04. U.S. Oct., Sept payrolls revised down 199,000
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

05. U.S. Nov. services jobs fall 370,000, most in 25 years
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

06. U.S. Nov. hours worked fall 0.9%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

07. U.S. Nov. average hourly earnings up 0.4% vs. 0.2% expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

08. U.S. Nov. unemployment rate highest since Oct. 1993
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

09. U.S. job losses average 419,000 per month past three months
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

10. U.S. Nov. retail jobs down 91,000
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

[Ghost Dog]

137. Revisions, revisions.

Ufff.

(What a crazy day, for me. I'll tell you folks a little about it, maybe, later.

Once I stop laughing, ruefully).

[Pale Blue Dot]

48. Unemployment at 7.2%!!!!

:scared:

[Demeter]

62. With Healthy dose of Fudge

more like 12% minimum

[Doctor_J]

117. Bernie Sanders just said on hartmann it's 13.2%

that number doesn't include underemployed & temps

[UpInArms]

110. Nov wholesale inventories @ -0.6%

Jan 9 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Nov
Report -0.6%
briefing.com -0.7%
market -0.7%
Prior -1.2%
rev'd from -1.1%

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to above $42 as Gaza, demand weighed

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to above $42 a barrel Friday in Asia as traders speculated that a second front is opening in Israel's Gaza offensive, but analysts said gains would likely be limited by continuing weakness in demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose 31 cents to $42.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore. The contract overnight fell 93 cents to settle at $41.70.

....

Dismal employment news and lousy reports from retailers also heighten fears that consumer demand will continue to weaken.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 2.69 cents to $1.11 a gallon. Heating oil gained 1.68 cents to $1.55 a gallon while natural gas for February delivery jumped 4.2 cents to $5.63 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

81. Retail gasoline prices up 10 cents in past week to $1.78

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Retail-gasoline-prices-up-10/story.aspx?guid=%7B6F97F5D9%2DA2F4%2D413B%2D97D0%2D689E392EC03D%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Average U.S. retail gasoline prices rose to $1.78 a gallon, up from $1.68 a gallon a month ago, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report. A year ago, gasoline sold for $3.10 a gallon.

[Roland99]

88. RBOB floating about $1.07/gal. We're at $1.87 here. Back to 80-cent margins.

great.

[Hugin]

122. Beware of the word 'average'... It's up 35cents/gallon here in the last week. n/t

[ozymandius]

4. Job losses stack up as recession deepens

WASHINGTON – Trying to survive a deepening recession, employers are cutting their work forces to the bone, leaving more Americans unemployed and with dim prospects of finding a new job any time soon.

The Labor Department releases a report Friday expected to show the employment market turned worse in December, capping a year when job losses were logged every month.

With employers throttling back hiring, the unemployment rate is expected to jump from 6.7 percent in November to 7 percent in December, according to economists' forecasts. If they are right, that would mark the highest jobless rate in 15-1/2 years.

....

If the conservative 2.4 million estimate of net payroll reductions for 2008 proves correct, it would mark the first annual job loss since the previous recession in 2001. It also would be the worst year of job losses since 1945, when employers slashed nearly 2.8 million jobs, though the number of jobs in the U.S. has more than tripled since then.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090109/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/financial_meltdown

[ozymandius]

10. Great Depression jobs parallel may not be far flung

NEW YORK (Reuters) – When economists tell us the current U.S. slump could never turn into another Great Depression, they all point to one thing: one of four Americans was out of work in the 1930s.

But since the definition of joblessness has changed over the years, this expert assessment might be too rosy.

....

"We are in a very, very different place than the U.S. economy was in the 1930s," James Poterba, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research told a recent Reuters Summit.

Or are we? Figures collected for Reuters by John Williams, from the electronic newsletter Shadowstats.com, suggest that, while we are not there yet, the comparison is not as outlandish as it might initially seem.

By his count, if unemployment were still tallied the way it was in the 1930s, today's jobless rate would be closer to 16.5 percent -- more than double the stated rate.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090109/us_nm/us_usa_economy_depression

[fasttense]

17. The U6 is at a 12.5% unemployment rate.

I wonder what additional unemployed Americans John Williams is counting that are not included in the U6?

The U-6 is the total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force.

Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

[ozymandius]

21. Thank you for that definition fasttense.

It is very helpful to have that reminder. This portion of the work force is the most vulnerable segment of the population in terms of healthcare costs, seasonal fluctuations of income, destabilizing events such as major car repairs, etc. They are the first to fall through the gaps in any social safety net.

[Tansy_Gold]

22. Our working population is different now, too

As the wage-earning population has evolved, wouldn't the percentages have to be adjusted to acount for the changes? More women in the work force. Shift from rural to urban/suburban. that sort of thing.


TG

[Birthmark]

27. WIlliams is probably including...

...those who have been unemployed for more than one year. After that time, those people aren't counted at all in the Civilian Labor Force. They are moved to Not in Labor Force and ignored.

[Zynx]

114. I recall reading in a book so long as you worked a paid hour a month in the Depression

that was counted as employed. I can't find it now, but that's what I remember.

[Festivito]

5. Debt: 01/07/2009 10,635,772,096,222.74 (DOWN 2,653,650,071.06) (Again, little.)

(Looks almost the same as yesterday. Just small moves.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,318,494,695,577.72 + 4,317,277,400,645.02
DOWN 314,429,077.84 + DOWN 2,339,220,993.22

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -795,419,858.05.
The average for the last 30 days would be -583,307,895.91.
The average for the last 33 days would be -530,279,905.37.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 67 reports in 99 days of FY2009 averaging 9.12B$ per report, 6.17B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 13 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/07/2009 10,635,772,096,222.70 GWB (UP 4,907,576,300,041.13 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 611,047,199,310.30 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -
12/29/2008 -000,737,189,520.41 --- Mon
12/30/2008 +000,055,730,362.68 ------------*******
12/31/2008 +046,553,280,763.13 ------------**********
01/02/2009 -049,252,670,832.20 -
01/05/2009 -000,912,747,082.07 --- Mon
01/06/2009 -000,344,326,906.71 ---
01/07/2009 -000,314,429,077.84 ---

-100,190,803,299.79 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $971,140,292,963.67 in last 111 days.
That's 971B$ in 111 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 95% of that highest year ever only in 111 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 111 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3679254&mesg_id=3679274

[Festivito]

146. Debt: 01/08/2009 10,608,325,323,172.57 (DOWN 27,446,773,050.17) (Down public.)

(Reduction of the public debt by an amount worth a week or two of average borrowing. Can't put my finger on it, but the lack of borrowing and then borrowing all at once just seems strange to me.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,290,895,264,113.46 + 4,317,430,059,059.11
DOWN 27,599,431,464.26 + UP 152,658,414.09

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -2,072,956,368.88.
The average for the last 30 days would be -1,520,168,003.85.
The average for the last 31 days would be -1,471,130,326.30.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 68 reports in 100 days of FY2009 averaging 8.58B$ per report, 5.84B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 12 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/08/2009 10,608,325,323,172.50 GWB (UP 4,880,129,526,990.93 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 583,600,426,260.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -
12/29/2008 -000,737,189,520.41 --- Mon
12/30/2008 +000,055,730,362.68 ------------*******
12/31/2008 +046,553,280,763.13 ------------**********
01/02/2009 -049,252,670,832.20 -
01/05/2009 -000,912,747,082.07 --- Mon
01/06/2009 -000,344,326,906.71 ---
01/07/2009 -000,314,429,077.84 ---
01/08/2009 -027,599,431,464.26 -

-127,962,871,208.54 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $943,693,519,913.50 in last 112 days.
That's 944B$ in 112 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 93% of that highest year ever only in 112 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 112 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3681304&mesg_id=3681315

[ozymandius]

6. World stock markets fall ahead of US jobs report

HONG KONG – Asian and European stock markets fell Friday ahead of a U.S. jobs report that investors fear will reveal massive job losses and point to a deepening recession in the world's largest economy.

After fluctuating in the morning, Asia's bourses trended down later in the session amid mounting anxiety over the closely watched non-farm payrolls data, due out later Friday in the U.S.

....

As trading opened in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.6 percent, while Germany's DAX and France's CAC-40 were about 0.5 percent lower.

Earlier in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock average moved in and out of the green, trading 39.62 points lower, or 0.5 percent, at 8,836.80 by the close. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 38.47 points, or 0.3 percent, to 14,377.44, after rising earlier in the session amid what analysts said was speculation about central government aid for the power sector.

In South Korea, the Kospi shed 2.1 percent even as the country's central bank cut its key interest rate for the fifth time in just three months to help shore up the country's sagging economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090109/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

11. Most Stocks in Germany Decline; Commerzbank, Infineon Retreat

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Most German stocks declined as analysts downgraded Commerzbank AG and Infineon Technologies AG and investors speculated a report today will show the U.S. job market is deteriorating.

Commerzbank tumbled 8.8 percent. Societe Generale SA advised clients to sell the stock after Germany’s second-biggest bank said yesterday it will receive an additional 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) from the country’s Soffin stabilization fund, while the government takes a 25 percent stake in the company. Infineon Technologies AG lost 8.5 percent as Merrill Lynch & Co. lowered its recommendation for Europe’s second-largest chipmaker to “underperform.”

The benchmark DAX Index slipped 0.4 percent to 4,859.61 as of 9:56 a.m. in Frankfurt, on course for a 2.3 percent drop this week. About two stocks fell for each one that rose in the measure. DAX futures expiring in March declined 0.8 percent. The broader HDAX decreased 0.5 percent.

....

Germany’s DAX Index tumbled 40 percent in 2008 as credit- related losses and writedowns at financial firms topped $1 trillion worldwide and the U.S., Japan and Europe fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a0SXJ1jXR_NY&refer=germany

[tclambert]

59. That sounds weird.

The reaction comes before the event, now? Ante hoc, ergo propter hoc? But why should foreign markets react one day before a report comes out, when surely they've known for some time the report would be dismal?

Sometimes I think the analysts look at what a market does, then randomly pick something nearby to "explain" it. One day they will say, "Markets fell sharply today because Maria Bartiromo didn't wear her lucky T-shirt. Financial advisers expect things to pick back up after laundry day."

[Demeter]

64. Europeans Can Read the Writing on the Wall

They don't need the official fudging to see which way the wind is blowing. The rest of the world is not as enamored of GWB and his cronies as our MSM and the WSJ is.

[Dr.Phool]

93. The day they report that she's not wearing panties.

I might buy. Not until then. :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

129. You should watch her interview that jackass

Welch. She does every thing but give him a blow job. Maybe it is because she's with CBS but I have seen her do this on 2 different occasions now.

[Dr.Phool]

131. I just turned on the tube, and she's broadcasting from Las Vegas.

They didn't say if she was wearing shorts or not.

[AnneD]

138. Three reasons why Vegas is better than Wall Street....

they are honest-you know the odds are always in favour of the house.
you can get a good dinner after the take your money.
they will give you a ticket home if you lose it all.

[ozymandius]

7. Stock futures point to losses ahead of payrolls

(Reuters) – Stock futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Friday as investors braced for dismal monthly jobs figures and a rise in the unemployment rate. At 5 a.m. EST, futures for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 were down between 0.4 and 0.8 percent.

Highlights:

* The United States is expected to have shed 550,000 jobs in December, making it the worst single month of job losses in 34 years, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to a 15-year high of 7.0 percent. If economists' forecasts for December prove correct, 2008 will be the biggest year of payroll losses since 1945.

* Adding to the gloom, a top Federal Reserve official said late on Thursday the U.S. recession looked to be longer and more severe than originally thought, but there were signs the economy would improve in the second half of 2009.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090109/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks_56

[ozymandius]

8. Recession more severe than thought: Fed's Rosengren

WEST NEWTON, Massachusetts (Reuters) – The U.S. recession looks to be longer and more severe than originally thought, but there are signs that the economy will improve in the second half of 2009, a top Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.

"It appears the economy contracted quite significantly in the final quarter of 2008 and may continue contracting over at least the first half of 2009. We are seeing businesses retrenching and unemployment rising," Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren told the Massachusetts Mortgage Bankers Association's Annual Meeting.

"As a result, this recession looks to be longer and more severe than originally forecast. Still, there are indications that the second half of the year will show improvement," he said.

....

Rosengren, who won't assume a voting seat on the Fed's policy-setting committee until 2010, said that with appropriate steps, the housing market could stabilize this year. A recovery in the housing market is widely seen as a prerequisite for economic recovery.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090109/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_rosengren

---

You see? This statement, in bold, alone shows why we have not seen any improvement in broad economic conditions. If recovery in the housing market is widely seen as a prerequisite for economic recovery then what is the prerequisite for recovery in the housing market? Hint: It doesn't start with Wal-Mart wages.

[DemReadingDU]

54. Rosengren: the second half of the year will show improvement

How can he think this? More and more people are going to be losing their jobs. Obama wants to create jobs, but that takes time. And if people don't have jobs, there is no way that housing is going to recover soon.

[ozymandius]

85. That's what the FedHeads always say.

Prosperity is just around the corner. Yes-indeedy.

By July people will start consuming with all that money they make from their non-existent jobs.

[Dr.Phool]

95. A little wiggle room? "MAY continue to contract for AT LEAST".

When did they start measuring economic cycles in Friedman Units?

[ozymandius]

9. Consumer credit posts record drop in November

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Consumer borrowing dropped by a record $7.94 billion in November, a Federal Reserve report showed on Thursday, the latest evidence that households were unwilling or unable to take on more credit.

That was the biggest decline since the data series began in January 1943, and was far steeper than the $0.5 billion dip that economists polled by Reuters had expected.

The November decline represented a drop of 3.7 percent, the largest percentage fall since January 1998, when it was down 4.3 percent.

....

Non-revolving credit, which includes closed-end loans for big-ticket items like cars, boats, college educations and holidays, fell $5.18 billion, or 3.9 percent, to $1.597 trillion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090108/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_credit_1

[ozymandius]

12. Wal-Mart and the Retail-Stock Markdown

....

The world's largest retailer had looked like it was actually benefiting from the economic slowdown as consumers flocked to its low-priced offerings. Wal-Mart's stock posted a gain in 2008, one of just a handful of large-company stocks to do so.

But on Jan. 8, Wal-Mart warned that fourth-quarter profits could be 12% below previous estimates. December same-store sales, which had been rising strongly as consumers sought out deals, missed expectations by rising only 1.7% in the U.S.

....

Higher-end retailers were hit hard. Saks (SKS) last month saw same-store sales drop 20%. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) posted a 24% plunge in same-store sales.

At Sears' (SHLD) Kmart chain, December same-store sales fell 1.1%, but the chain's domestic same-store sales was off 7.3%.

Nordstrom reported a decline in same-store sales of 10.6% in December.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2009/pi2009018_275086.htm?chan=investing_investing+index+page_top+stories

[Dr.Phool]

13. Good Morning Oz, everyone.

[ozymandius]

15. Good morning Dr. Phool.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Just to say - I really enjoyed your dog tales yesterday. Very funny. By the way, is your dog's name inspired by this cartoon?

[Dr.Phool]

18. His real name is Duffy.

My wife's son, who was staying with us for a while about 10 years ago, was wrestling with him, and told him, "you're such a fudd". It was fitting, it stuck, and it responds to it.

I'll leave it to others to figure out how our recently departed one got her name. Stoli.

[Demeter]

26. Good Morning Boys and Girls

Storm heading my way. Hope it's big enough to stop the world--I want to stay home and dig out the mess.
I can't live like this...cleaning up other people's apts. while my whole life goes to pot.

[PassingFair]

40. Suspended animation...

what a time we live in.

:hug:

[Demeter]

44. More Like Breaking Out of Prison to Take Care of Personal Needs

Let the world go hang itself.

[ozymandius]

14. Long-Term Mortgage Rate Falls Again

Long-term home-mortgage rates dropped again this week, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hitting a fourth consecutive low in the history of Freddie Mac's weekly survey.

The 30-year mortgage averaged 5.01% for the week ended Jan. 8, down from last week's 5.10%. The mortgage averaged 5.87% a year ago.

The rate hasn't been lower since Freddie Mac's survey began in 1971. The survey covers conventional, conforming mortgages.

....

On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the volume of mortgage applications filed last week was down a seasonally adjusted 8.2% compared with the week before due to a drop in refinance applications.Freddie Mac also joined with Fannie Mae Thursday in saying they are extending a temporary foreclosure and eviction suspension on single-family homes to further work with servicers to modify mortgages.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123147352979967339.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[Robbien]

41. Senate went begging to Citigroup to get their support to pass mortgage bill

Isn't that assbackwards?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/114013-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news
Citi makes Senate friends on cramdowns. In an about-face for one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, Citigroup (C) dropped its opposition to a Senate bill that would allow judges to order mortgage 'cramdowns,' setting new repayment terms for mortgage holders in bankruptcy court. Aimed at helping millions of homeowners with underwater mortgages, the bill marks a major shift of power from lenders to debtors, leaving banks worried that cramdowns will encourage bankruptcies even among those able to pay. By way of explaining Citi's swift turnaround on the issue, CEO Vikram Pandit cited 'today's exceptional economic environment,' and Citi's opposition was dropped on the condition no future mortgages would be included in the law. Legislators had sought out Citi's support, hoping banking industry support would help the bill be approved more quickly, and Citi was duly applauded for 'being open-minded' and 'playing a major leadership role.' Senate Democrats hope to include the bill in Obama's stimulus plan.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123144562914865337.html
Two senior officials of the Mortgage Bankers Association, the nation's biggest trade and lobbying group for mortgage lenders, said in a joint statement on Thursday that the group remains opposed to cramdowns "because of the destabilizing effect it will have on an already turbulent mortgage market. We were surprised by the suddenness of the announcement and are still evaluating the proposed deal, but we believe there remain a number of crucial issues that need to be addressed."

[ozymandius]

16. Treasury’s Oversight of Bailout Is Faulted

In a report scheduled to be released Friday, the Congressional panel overseeing the $700 billion federal bailout has expressed growing concern about the effectiveness and execution of the rescue plan.

A draft of the report obtained by The New York Times criticized the Treasury Department for its “shifting explanations” about the underlying purpose of the bailout, its failure to answer many of the panel’s questions and its failure to require financial institutions receiving bailout money to fully account for how they are using the public’s money.

....

The 45-page report also asserted that the Treasury, in defiance of what the panel claimed was Congress’s clear intent when it passed the bailout bill in October, had taken “no steps to use any of this money to alleviate the foreclosure crisis.”

....

According to a running tally by The Times, the Treasury has already committed $359 billion of the $700 billion to banks, credit card companies, automakers and insurance companies, among others. The oversight panel’s latest assessments are likely to fuel the debate over how to spend the remainder of the bailout money.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/economy/09tarp.html?ref=politics

[ozymandius]

23. $700 Billion Dollar Attaboy - brutal assessment from Bloomberg

Expert framing of this column provided by Barry Ritholtz:

Today’s must read MSM piece is a brutal Bloomberg column, delineating why the Bailouts have been such a sweet deal for the banks. Despite the gross incompetence and sheer recklessness of Wall Street and the Financial sector, they were handed massive amounts of money with little in the way of returns to the taxpayer, no specific guidance or requirements.

It was Moral Hazard writ large, essentially an encouragement of future speculative excess. and even less penalties.

Excerpt:

“Henry Paulson may be the most powerful manager of money in the world and he still couldn’t do for taxpayers with the $700 billion bailout of American banks what Warren Buffett did for his shareholders in investing in Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The Treasury secretary has made 174 purchases of banks’ preferred shares that include certificates to buy stock at a later date. He invested $10 billion in Goldman Sachs in October, twice as much as Buffett did the month before, yet gained warrants worth one-fourth as much as the billionaire, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Goldman Sachs terms were repeated in most of the other bank bailouts.

Paulson’s warrant deals may give U.S. taxpayers, who are funding the bailouts, less profit from any recovery in financial stocks than shareholders such as Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein and Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, owner of 4 percent of Citigroup Inc., said Simon Johnson, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund.

The transactions are “just egregious,” said Johnson, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “You want to do it the way Warren does it.”

Paulson’s decisions mark the first time in the nation’s 236- year history that the U.S. government has had to prop up the financial system by purchasing shares in institutions from Goldman Sachs, the most profitable Wall Street firm last year, to Saigon National Bank, a Westminster, California, lender with a market value of $3.8 million.

and it gets better....

I am still scratching my head in disbelief that Paulson was once the chief of Goldman Sachs. Surely, it seems, their hierarchy is not fueled by a meritocracy.

[Demeter]

24. I Think Warren Buffet Made a Bad Investment

there's no reason to trust a crook to treat you honorably or right.

[tclambert]

67. Treasury's response: "But dude, it WAS an oversight."

"Oh, did you guys mean the other definition of oversight? Like, in supervise? Oh, man, we totally thought you meant it the other way, like, didn't see what was going on at all. Isn't that weird how a word can have two completely different meanings? Like, baked can also mean cooked in an oven."

[ozymandius]

19. Cheney says I'm no one: diary by Jerome a Paris

Cheney says no one saw financial crisis coming

WASHINGTON – Vice President Dick Cheney says that his boss, President George W. Bush, has no need to apologize to the American people for not doing more to head off the financial calamity, saying no one saw the crisis coming.

During an interview Thursday with The Associated Press in his West Wing office, Cheney defended the administration's performance on an economy that is growing weaker daily and which recently collapsed in spectacular fashion. Cheney said that "nobody anywhere was smart enough to figure it out."

....

Here are a few examples of warnings from early 2005, which I outlined already back in October.

I blogged each of these articles on DailyKos back then, but I won't link to these just to underline the point: these warnings did not come from shrill lefties, they were printed in the Financial Times, the main business paper in Europe (and the main competitor to the Wall Street Journal globally), and they were expressed by senior bankers or politicians.

....

So - not just a warning printed in the Financial Times, but coming from the head of the Central Bank of a major European country, and warning of how the same circumstances had brought about the same consequences time and over again. He was ignored, but he was, of course, correct.

So - just 3 articles from early 2005, before there were any hints of any weakness in the ongoing bubbles, coming from uninmpeachable sources in one of the most SeriousTM publications around...

No, nobody could have predicted how this would end...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/1/8/182817/9063/637/681788

---

"Nobody could have predicted..." - Again we hear repeated the mantra of this wretched failure of an administration.

[Dr.Phool]

20. The Land of the Blind is still looking for the One-eyed Man.

[Demeter]

25. Yeah, So They Can Put Out His Eye

[Tansy_Gold]

29. "The Richest Man in Bogotá" (spoiler alert)

I just went looking for this on the google and there is virtually no information other than it was a 1962 tv presentation starring Lee Marvin (which I already knew), and a couple of brief descriptions of the H.G. Wells story on which it's based.

As I recall the tv show, Marvin's character returns to the valley after having voluntarily blinded himself.

Blindness can be seen (pun intended, of course) as a blessing, perhaps especially to those to whom it brings great wealth. . . . . . .




Tansy Gold

[InkAddict]

143. OP #20, 25, 29 = See this?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3682601&mesg_id=3682601

[Wednesdays]

30. Huh, has a familiar ring to it...

"No one could have predicted"...ignoring multiple warnings...hmm, where have I heard that before...

:shrug:

I dunno, I'm drawing a blank. I just keep getting images of planes running into buildings.

[JNelson6563]

46. Yeah, no one could've seen it coming!

Except of all of us here of course. Hell I probably know the least of all you Marketeers and I saw it coming a mile away. Ozy can attest to my "long on gold" mantra going back years.

What a pantload. Oy!

Julie

[AnneD]

135. That is what frustrates me the most.....

even with out the benefit of a PDB and only using my brain I figured out that...
1) Al Quida was the main suspect in WTC bombing
2) They (al Quida) were not in Iraq. SH being a dictator would see them as a threat (much like other Arab leaders see Hamas as a threat to their power and are secretly glad Israel is going after them). Their leaders care more for their power than for their own people. Arab unity is as real as the tooth fairy-it only applies in some situations.
3) There were no WMD's and that was a smoke screen (I have several thoughts as to why they needed a smoke screen).
4) When the RE market started going crazy, this was a redux of the S&L Scandal but upped a few notches: balloon mortgage=ARM, Savings and Loan=Countywide, heck we even had the same players and results (Bushes involved, tax payers on the hook).
5)paper profits are not real profits. A company that produces nothing but an annual report is overhyped. WS will have relearned these lessons and the day that a company that announces layoffs and their stock drops. And high unemployment figures cause the market to tumble for days.
6) But the biggest head fake of all....if they can keep the people divided and preoccupied they can get away with anything.
7) GWB never ran a profitable company-he too them all to bankruptcy-and they expected him to do different with the country.


And yet no one could see this coming.

:banghead:

[tclambert]

73. Before Katrina hit, our local weatherman warned what would happen if New Orleans' levees failed.

He did a little demonstration with a dishpan full of water, and a soup bowl he pushed down into the water to represent NO. Then he tipped the bowl, and surprise, surprise, it flooded! Yet afterward Bush claimed no one anticipated the failure of the levees.

No one could have predicted that Bush and his cronies could be this bad at predicting everything important that would happen to America.

[florida08]

107. amazing isn't it

All you have to say is.."nobody could have predicted" and you're absolved. This has been the "I didn't know" crowd above all the others. Well of course when you're looking the other way you won't see the elephant in the room. I still don't know why they wanted in office other than to rob and pilfer the treasury and the country. We are 180 from where we were when Clinton left. What an infamous legacy they leave to the new president-elect.

[Demeter]

28. 10 Absurd Conservative Myths About Obama's Recovery Plan

http://www.alternet.org/workplace/118405/10_absurd_conservative_myths_about_obama%27s_recovery_plan

By Sara Robinson, Campaign for America's Future
Posted on January 9, 2009, Printed on January 9, 2009
http://www.alternet.org/story/118405/

Here it is: our moment of economic truth. We're standing at that historic fork in the road where the nation decides, now and for the foreseeable future, whether it's going to hang on to the catastrophic assumptions of the free-market fundamentalists and rely once more on the nostrums that have so far failed to fix the mess, or take a bold step down a new, more progressive path that will finally re-empower the American people to build an economy that works for us all.

As usual, the conservatives have absolutely no conscience about what they did to create this mess. If they did, they'd all be holed up in their gated communities or on their private islands, embarrassed into silence at best and terrified of peasant uprisings at worst. Instead, they're jetting into D.C. en masse in a last-ditch attempt to head the country off -- or at least make sure that any money that does get spent ends up, as it always has, in their pockets.

To that end, the self-serving myths are starting to fly so thick and fast that the staff here at CAF has been working full-time to keep ahead of them. Here's some of what they're flinging in this latest B.S. storm -- and what you need to know to fire back.

1. The proposed recovery package is too big.

2. If we can't afford (insert pet project here), we certainly can't afford this.

Yes, we can. What we really can't afford is a huge recession that undercuts the tax base. That's a vicious cycle that will make it increasingly harder to dig out the longer this goes on. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the current slowdown will cost the federal government $166 billion in lost tax revenues in 2009 -- a number that could easily get even larger in coming years if we fall into a real depression. If we get on that trendline, we could lose a trillion dollars in government revenues by the end of Obama's first term. We need to invest what we have while we still have it if we hope to have a strong economy going forward.

This argument is based on the limited view that wealth is mainly generated by loaning or borrowing at interest -- a common enough assumption among financial people over the past 30 years. A more progressive view is that real wealth is generated by labor, combined with access to resources required for production. Putting people to work creates wealth. So does ensuring that our current failing energy regime is replaced as rapidly as possible with one that's infinitely renewable and that we will finally be in full control of. And so do other kinds of infrastructure investments, which form the footing on which a new round of businesses can rise and thrive.

Businesses have always invested their capital to create more capital. The best parts of Obama's proposal involve getting the government to do the same thing. Conservatives are resisting this because don't believe that there's such a thing as the common wealth -- which is how they've rationalized their plundering of our common assets. We need to make it absolutely clear that we do believe in the common wealth -- and that their assaults on everything that allows America to generate national wealth are going stop, right here and right now.

3. It's more important to balance the budget. Fix that, and the rest will take care of itself.

4. The worst thing we can possibly do is raise taxes. Or borrow the money, God forbid.

5. When you want to stimulate the economy, tax cuts always beat government spending hands-down.

6. Large-scale government investment would inevitably turn into an orgy of waste, fraud and abuse.

True -- but only if we let conservatives run the show.

7. We need stimulus now -- and tax cuts are the only way to get the money out there fast enough.

8. It’s wrong to bail out spend-thrift states. Let them stimulate their own damned economies.

9. This whole Keynesian thing has been totally disproved. It didn’t work during the Depression. It didn’t work for Japan in the 1980s.

Say what? We know that rewriting history is a favorite conservative pastime. America is Christian country. Slavery was good for black people. Bush was never a real conservative. Saddam was in cahoots with al-Qaida. And on it goes.

The campaign to discredit Keynes (which is directly traceable to the Heritage Foundation) is a new and rather audacious fiction -- one that leaves both progressive and conservative economists as gobsmacked and sputtering as scientists get when you bring up "intelligent design." And the factual basis for it is, if anything, even more specious.

Paul Krugman addresses both the Depression and the example of Japan in his new book, "The Return of Depression Economics." According to his telling of the tale, in both cases the affected economies strengthened as long as the government continued to infuse capital into them; but bobbled when there was enough improvement that the budget hawks could get some political traction. When the spending flagged, so did the recovery. In Japan, bold steps alternating with repeated failures of nerve created a liquidity trap that stagnated the country's economy through most of the 1990s.

Keynes' prescription has worked everywhere it's been tried -- as long as governments acted boldly and quickly enough. It's not medicine that works if you take it in half-doses, or quit before the course of treatment is finished. In fact, doing it with less than full commitment can actually make the situation worse.

10. This is a partisan program that's designed to promote the Democratic agenda.

No. Almost every businessperson in America -- including the conservative ones -- are stepping forward in support of the stimulus package. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is on board with it. So (unsurprisingly) are most of the building trades and engineering groups who stand to prosper with a new round of infrastructure spending. The current economy is hurting everyone, regardless of political affiliation -- and most Americans agree that it's time for the government to step in and get things going again.

SEE LINK FOR ALL THE STUFF I CUT

[JNelson6563]

53. Great stuff!

Thanks for posting that, very good read! :toast:

Julie

[Demeter]

61. I Confess I Stole It From Another Post

[DemReadingDU]

65. The Republicons took trillions to bail out the banksters

The Republicons took trillions for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq

So why not trillions to boost our economy and create jobs!

[tclambert]

79. Yeah, good one. I liked it.

Been hearing whispers of it from desperate Republicans trying to make sense of their core beliefs crumbling around them. Some are still trying to blame Clinton. "It's really Clinton-era policies that led to this." Yeah, too bad the Republicans never had any opportunity to save us during the last eight years. Oh, wait . . .

[Dr.Phool]

97. Their core beliefs are as bankrupt as the old Soviet communists ideology.

[Demeter]

31. Why Bananas are a Parable For Our Times

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/johann-hari/why-bananas-are-a-parable_b_156102.html

Below the headlines about rocketing food prices and rocking governments, there lays a largely unnoticed fact: bananas are dying. The foodstuff, more heavily consumed even than rice or potatoes, has its own form of cancer. It is a fungus called Panama Disease, and it turns bananas brick-red and inedible.


There is no cure. They all die as it spreads, and it spreads quickly. Soon - in five, 10 or 30 years - the yellow creamy fruit as we know it will not exist. The story of how the banana rose and fell can be seen a strange parable about the corporations that increasingly dominate the world - and where they are leading us.

Bananas seem at first like a lush product of nature, but this is a sweet illusion. In their current form, bananas were quite consciously created. Until 150 ago, a vast array of bananas grew in the world's jungles and they were invariably consumed nearby. Some were sweet; some were sour. They were green or purple or yellow.

A corporation called United Fruit took one particular type - the Gros Michael - out of the jungle and decided to mass produce it on vast plantations, shipping it on refrigerated boats across the globe. The banana was standardised into one friendly model: yellow and creamy and handy for your lunchbox.

There was an entrepreneurial spark of genius there - but United Fruit developed a cruel business model to deliver it. As the writer Dan Koeppel explains in his brilliant history Banana: The Fate of the Fruit That Changed the World, it worked like this. Find a poor, weak country. Make sure the government will serve your interests. If it won't, topple it and replace it with one that will.

Burn down its rainforests and build banana plantations. Make the locals dependent on you. Crush any flicker of trade unionism. Then, alas, you may have to watch as the banana fields die from the strange disease that stalks bananas across the globe. If this happens, dump tonnes of chemicals on them to see if it makes a difference. If that doesn't work, move on to the next country. Begin again.

This sounds like hyperbole until you study what actually happened. In 1911, the banana magnate Samuel Zemurray decided to seize the country of Honduras as a private plantation. He gathered together some international gangsters like Guy "Machine Gun" Maloney, drummed up a private army, and invaded, installing an amigo as president.

The term "banana republic" was invented to describe the servile dictatorships that were created to please the banana companies. In the early 1950s, the Guatemalan people elected a science teacher named Jacobo Arbenz, because he promised to redistribute some of the banana companies' land among the millions of landless peasants.

President Eisenhower and the CIA (headed by a former United Fruit employee) issued instructions that these "communists" should be killed, and noted that good methods were "a hammer, axe, wrench, screw driver, fire poker or kitchen knife". The tyranny they replaced it with went on to kill more than 200,000 people.

But how does this relate to the disease now scything through the world's bananas? The evidence suggests even when they peddle something as innocuous as bananas, corporations are structured to do one thing only: maximise their shareholders' profits. As part of a highly regulated mixed economy, that's a good thing, because it helps to generate wealth or churn out ideas. But if the corporations aren't subject to tight regulations, they will do anything to maximise short-term profit. This will lead them to seemingly unhinged behaviour - like destroying the environment on which they depend.

Not long after Panama Disease first began to kill bananas in the early 20th century, United Fruit's scientists warned the corporation was making two errors. They were building a gigantic monoculture. If every banana is from one homogenous species, a disease entering the chain anywhere on earth will soon spread. The solution? Diversify into a broad range of banana types.

The company's quarantine standards were also dire. Even the people who were supposed to prevent infection were trudging into healthy fields with disease-carrying soil on their boots. But both of these solutions cost money - and United Front didn't want to pay. They decided to maximise their profit today, reckoning they would get out of the banana business if it all went wrong.

So by the 1960s, the Gros Michel that United Fruit had packaged as The One True Banana was dead. They scrambled to find a replacement that was immune to the fungus, and eventually stumbled upon the Cavendish. It was smaller and less creamy and bruised easily, but it would have to do.

But like in a horror movie sequel, the killer came back. In the 1980s, the Cavendish too became sick. Now it too is dying, its immunity a myth. In many parts of Africa, the crop is down 60 percent. There is a consensus among scientists that the fungus will eventually infect all Cavendish bananas everywhere. There are bananas we could adopt as Banana 3.0 - but they are so different to the bananas that we know now that they feel like a totally different and far less appetising fruit. The most likely contender is the Goldfinger, which is crunchier and tangier: it is know as "the acid banana."

Thanks to bad corporate behaviour and physical limits, we seem to be at a dead end. The only possible glimmer of hope is a genetically modified banana that can resist Panama Disease. But that is a distant prospect, and it is resisted by many people: would you like a banana split made from a banana split with fish genes?

When we hit up against a natural limit like Panama disease, we are bemused, and then affronted. It seems instinctively bizarre to me that lush yellow bananas could vanish from the global food supply, because I have grown up in a culture without any idea of physical limits to what we can buy and eat.

Is there a parable for our times in this odd milkshake of banana, blood and fungus? For a hundred years, a handful of corporations were given a gorgeous fruit, set free from regulation, and allowed to do what they wanted with it. What happened? They had one good entrepreneurial idea - and to squeeze every tiny drop of profit from it, they destroyed democracies, burned down rainforests, and ended up killing the fruit itself.

But have we learned? Across the world, politicians like George Bush and David Cameron are telling us the regulation of corporations is "a menace" to be "rolled back"; they even say we should leave the planet's climate in their hands. Now that's bananas.


Johann Hari is a wrier for the London Independent. To read more of his articles, click here or here.

To learn more about the banana crisis, read the terrific book 'Banana: the Fate of the Fruit That Changed the World.'

[DemReadingDU]

33. Oh no. I love bananas

bright yellow with a tinge of green at each end. no spots.

When bananas have spots, I make banana bread.

[Hugin]

78. It comes from TPTB's belief they are above the law... Which includes natural laws.

No more bananas? ;(

[tclambert]

87. I heard too, that they don't grow banana trees from seeds, they grow them from clippings

which means all the commercial banana trees are clones from one or just a few originals. The lack of genetic diversity meant consistency in the product, but means any disease that affects one can spread through the whole population.

That's kind of a metaphor for the "free market" idealized by many, as opposed to the competitive market that Adam Smith (On the Wealth of Nations) championed, and later Charles Darwin. The banana company tycoons understood neither.

[DemReadingDU]

32. Columbus Ohio - Fugitive Rebecca Parrett on America's Most Wanted

She's on the home page
http://www.amw.com/


1/8/09 Fraudster On The Run After Scams Net Billions
Rebecca S. Parrett

(Rebecca Green, Rebecca Kunzi, Rebecca House, Rebecca Robinson, Rebecca Ayers, Rebecca Mayes)

case brief
U.S. Marshals are searching for a grandmother who is facing 75 years in prison and $2.5 million in fines: Rebecca Parrett was convicted by a jury of her peers for her role in the $3 billion collapse of the company she helped to found. Now, cops say she took advantage of the system and slipped away before an ankle bracelet could be attached to her.
http://www.amw.com/fugitives/brief.cfm?id=55267

full story
http://www.amw.com/fugitives/case.cfm?id=55267


1/8/09 National Century figure is featured fugitive
A former Dublin executive who has been on the run for about 10 months, since her conviction in connection with the nation's largest fraud at a privately held company, is featured on America's Most Wanted's Web site.

U.S. Marshals announced that Rebecca S. Parrett, 60, is the featured fugitive at www.amw.com.

They also have an Internet site for Parrett's case, www.rebeccaparrett.com. Anyone with information on Parrett's whereabouts is asked to contact the Marshal's Service at 614-469-5540.

Parrett, a former executive at National Century Financial Enterprises, was convicted of securities fraud and other charges in federal court in Columbus on March 13.

The court permitted Parrett to await sentencing at her home in Carefree, Ariz., under house arrest. Instead, she disappeared.

Parrett is one of 10 former National Century executives convicted in a scam in which the company bilked investors out of millions of dollars by falsifying reports and intentionally deceiving the SEC from 1992 to 2002. One other executive was acquitted of charges by a jury last month.

Parrett faces 75 years in prison and $2.5 million in fines, the marshals said.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2009/01/08/amw.html?sid=101


WANTED By the US Marshals
Name: PARRETT,REBECCA S
Alias: AYERS,REBECCA; GREEN,REBECCA; HOUSE,REBECCA
Sex: FEMALE
Race: WHITE OR WHITE HISPANIC
Date of Birth: 09/01/1948
Place of Birth: WEST VIRGINIA

Read for Case Synopsis:
http://www.rebeccaparrett.com/



link backwards to previous articles
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3650122&mesg_id=3650186

[Demeter]

34. Madoff ordered £100m transfer from London office

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06066f78-ddb3-11dd-87dc-000077b07658.html

By Brooke Masters and Neil Hume in London and Joanna Chung in New York



Bernard Madoff ordered his UK company to transfer about £100m to his US firm just weeks before he allegedly confessed to running a $50bn fraud scheme, two former employees of Madoff Securities International said.

Mr Madoff, who chaired the UK firm and owned 89 per cent of it, called the office in London’s West End on November 12 and told employees that he was nervous about sterling and wanted to move £100m ($150m) of the firm’s capital from gilts into US Treasury bonds, one source said.

Details of Mr Madoff’s demand for cash from the UK came as it emerged that federal investigators found about 100 signed cheques totalling more than about $173m in Mr Madoff’s office desk, “ready to be sent out”, according to prosecutors who filed a second legal briefing on Thursday urging a judge to revoke Mr Madoff’s bail and jail him pending a trial.

In early December, he allegedly told two senior employees – his sons – that “in approximately one week he planned to surrender to authorities, but before he did that, he had approximately $200m-$300m left and he planned to use that money to make payments to certain selected employees, family and friends”.

US federal prosecutors wrote: “The only thing that prevented the defendant from executing his plan to dissipate those assets was his arrest by the FBI.”

The employees in London said his request for the money from the UK did not appear unusual because Mr Madoff had moved the UK firm’s money among currencies and government bonds in the past. Reuters, citing company documents, reported that Mr Madoff moved $160m from the US to the UK firm in 2007.

One source said the UK firm received paperwork from the US about the treasuries purchase, but the employees have been told that the examiners cannot find any evidence the bonds were bought.

The UK firm has said it was a proprietary trading company owned by Mr Madoff and his family and did not hold money for clients. There is no suggestion that the UK arm did anything wrong by acceding to his request for the money.

The Serious Fraud Office in the UK said on Thursday it had launched a full investigation into Mr Madoff’s UK dealings after receiving an interim report from Grant Thornton, the provisional liquidators of Madoff International.

SERIOUS FRAUD OFFICE==NOW WE KNOW WHERE MONTY PYTHON GOT ITS MATERIAL!

[Demeter]

36. Wall Street ‘red light’ on Madoff

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/135ae9f2-da92-11dd-8c28-000077b07658.html

By Henny Sender in New York



Large Wall Street firms privately harboured suspicions about Bernard Madoff’s investment business, in some cases steering clients away from dealing with him, but were reluctant to share their concerns with regulators, according to US bankers.

Banks were sceptical that Mr Madoff could deliver the consistently high returns that he reported, and they were also put off by a lack of transparency at his investment firm. For these reasons, big Wall Street firms are notably absent from the long list of victims of Mr Madoff’s alleged Ponzi scheme.

Fabio Savoldelli, chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch Investment Management prior to its 2006 merger with BlackRock, sounded the warning internally years ago. One of Merrill’s financial advisers, who deals with clients worth tens of millions of dollars, recalled Mr Savoldelli’s suspicions of Mr Madoff’s returns eight years ago.

Two years ago, an internal Merrill report drawn up in connection with Merrill’s European fund of funds group, concluded the group should not deal with Mr Madoff, the financial adviser said. “We had a red light on doing business with him. There was no transparency.”

However, a fear of alienating clients who had invested with Mr Madoff prevented many Merrill executives from voicing their concerns too loudly. “You sell your product but you don’t bad-mouth others. You don’t say bad things about Bernie Madoff. That is where you cross the line,” one former Merrill staffer recalled being told by a senior executive.

The large surviving investment banks did not put Mr Madoff’s funds on the recommended list of their investment arms and never dealt directly with him in their prime brokerage arms.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management said it “never felt comfortable with Madoff”, because it “never understood the investment process or the returns ... if clients wanted to invest with him, they did not do it through us”.

Goldman’s scepticism extended to Tremont Group Holdings, a fund of hedge funds based in Rye, New York, that gave more than $3bn to Mr Madoff through several channels. In 2001, when Tremont was sold to Oppenheimer, the brokerage, Goldman was representing another potential buyer. But Tremont did not let Goldman’s team have a close look at the firm’s operation, so Goldman’s client backed out.

Goldman never sounded the alarm with regulators. However, investment banks have no obligation to report suspected wrongdoing, lawyers say.

[UpInArms]

45. hmmm.... who was CEO of GS in 2001? Why, I do believe that was Paulson!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Paulson

From 1990 to November 1994, he was co-head of Investment Banking, then, Chief Operating Officer from December 1994 to June 1998;<8> eventually succeeding Jon Corzine (now Governor of New Jersey) as its chief executive. His compensation package, according to reports, was US $37 million in 2005, and US $16.4 million projected for 2006.<9> His net worth has been estimated at over US $700 million.<9> Paulson has personally built close relations with China during his career. In July 2008 it was reported by The Daily Telegraph that: "Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has intimate relations with the Chinese elite, dating from his days at Goldman Sachs when he visited the country more than 70 times."<10>

In 2004, at the request of the major Wall Street investment houses, including Goldman Sachs, then headed by Paulson, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission agreed unanimously to release the major investment houses from the net capital rule, the requirement that their brokerages hold reserve capital that limited their leverage and risk exposure. The complaint that was put forth by the investment banks was of increasingly onerous regulatory requirements -- in this case, not U.S. regulator oversight, but European Union regulation of the foreign operations of US investment groups. In the immediate lead-up to the decision, EU regulators also acceded to US pressure, and agreed not to scrutinize foreign firms' reserve holdings if the SEC agreed to do so instead. The 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, however, put the parent holding company of each of the big American brokerages beyond SEC oversight. In order for the agreement to go ahead, the investment banks lobbied for a decision that would allow "voluntary" inspection of their parent and subsidiary holdings by the SEC.

During this repeal of the net capital rule, SEC Chairman William H. Donaldson agreed to the establishment of a risk management office that would monitor signs of future problems. This office was eventually dismantled by Chairman Christopher Cox, after discussions with Paulson. According to the New York Times, "While other financial regulatory agencies criticized a blueprint by Mr. Paulson, the Treasury secretary, that proposed to reduce their stature — and that of the S.E.C. — Mr. Cox did not challenge the plan, leaving it to three former Democratic and Republican commission chairmen to complain that the blueprint would neuter the agency."<11> In late September 2008, Chairman Cox and the other Commissioners agreed to end the 2004 program of voluntary regulation.

[Demeter]

49. There Are No Such Things as Coincidences

[ozymandius]

72. Investment banks, as a personage, may not bear that responsibility.

However, the individual personage does. If anyone at GS suspected that fraud was being perpetrated then they are just as culpable in the commission of a crime as the alleged perpetrators.

[UpInArms]

39. Madoff 'victims' do math, realize they profited

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/madoff_false_profits

NEW YORK – The many Bernard Madoff investors who withdrew money from their accounts over the years are now wrestling with an ethical and legal quandary. What they thought were profits was likely money stolen from other clients in what prosecutors are calling the largest Ponzi scheme in history. Now, they are confronting the possibility they may have to pay some of it back.

The issue came to the forefront this week as about 8,000 former Madoff clients began to receive letters inviting them to apply for up to $500,000 in aid from the Securities Investor Protection Corp.

Lawyers for investors have been warning clients to do some tough math before they apply for any funds set aside for the victims, and figure out whether they were a winner or loser in the scheme.

Hundreds and maybe thousands of investors in Madoff's funds have been withdrawing money from their accounts for many years. In many cases, those investors have withdrawn far more than their principal investment.

"I had a call yesterday from a guy who said, 'I've taken out more money then I originally put in, but I still had $1 million left with Madoff. Should I file a $1 million claim?'" said Steven Caruso, a New York attorney specializing in securities and investment fraud.

"I'm hard-pressed to give advice in that situation," Caruso said.

Among the options: Get in line with other victims looking for restitution. Keep quiet and hope nobody notices. Return the money. Or hire a lawyer and fight to keep profits that were probably fraudulent.

No one knows yet how many people will emerge as net winners in the scandal, but the numbers appear to be substantial. Many of Madoff's long-term investors have, over time, cashed out millions of dollars of their supposed profits, which routinely amounted to 11 percent to 15 percent per year.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

76. Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a Winner and it's ME!

Oh, but no one could have predicted/imagined/guess/thunk. . . . . . .


EXCUSE ME!!!!!!! Wasn't I, your own dearly beloved Tansy Gold, just saying this very thing a few days and weeks ago!!!????!!!!






Tansy Gold, thinking she needs to take some time to make her own avatar. . . . ..can anyone guess what it might be?????????????

[UpInArms]

80. You were right, TG and I posted this one just for that purpose

I am sick and tired of everyone parroting the "no one could have known" crapspew and acting as though it were a treasure falling from their lips

Those people should be imprisoned, have their assets stripped and be branded by a huge red T for thief

[Tansy_Gold]

91. You're a sweetheart, UIA!!!!

Can I get a 1% finder's fee from those confiscated assets? Hell, I'll split it with all the SMW regulars and we'll all be rich!



Tansy Gold, who would gladly take that 1%, pay the unearned income income tax on it, split the remainder with the SMW regulars, and probably still have brazillion$ left over

[tclambert]

89. I can just picture John Cleese saying, "Oh, I am so terribly sorry, but you'll be wanting

the Serious Fraud Office, down this hallway, then a left, second door on the right. We're the Frightfully Silly Fraud Office, don't you see? Yes, common mistake. Happens all the time. Ta-ta now."

[Tansy_Gold]

35. Regarding the "careers" forum Ozy suggested --

Ozy --

Maybe you should post over on GD or something like one of those "Rec this if you want a careers forum" threads and we'll all rec it and get it on the front page????


Tansy Gold, tryin' to get her own "front page" goin' this chilly morning in AZ

[JNelson6563]

60. Good idea!

:toast:

[ozymandius]

82. Good one!

I will wait for either the mods or the admins to respond. Monday seems a reasonable amount of time to hear something. Do you think?

[UpInArms]

84. it does sound reasonable -

please keep us advised and post any links :)

:hi:

[ozymandius]

86. Will do.

I keep checking my DU mailbox and my regular e-mail. Nothing yet.

[JNelson6563]

104. When you do please post link in this thread

So we can all Rec it as well as keep it kicked. :kick:

Julie

[AnneD]

128. Nothing here either...

I always heard one should put the mail in the right box-I just addressed flaming youth but I will e-mail skinner and elad and all those folks too first chance I get today. I figure you have more clout than most of us Ozy since you handle this thread. I think they will give your endorsement more weight. The more positive response this idea gets-the more I am sure it is needed (esp with those unemployment numbers-thanks for those articles BTW).

[UpInArms]

37. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 81.591 Change -0.017 (-0.02%)

Euro Finds Support On Improved Retail Sales, Markets Focus On NFP Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Finds_Support_On_Improved_1231499269491.html

A better than expected Euro-Zone retail sales report woke up currency markets which had been consolidating ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm payroll report. The Euro jumped 50 bps when the consumption report showed a 0.6% gain in November versus expectations of flat sales. A 0.5% gain in food sales led the improvement from the month’s prior 1.0% decline. Germany led the way with a 0.7% increase, with developing nations Poland and Romania also seeing improvements. The Euro would reach as high as 1.3732 before finding resistance as traders are reluctant to make major bets ahead of the U.S. labor report.

The improvement in consumption may have little longer term implications for the Euro as recent evidence that the economy’s downturn has steepened will dampen expectations. Manufacturing and service activity in the region has contracted for the past seven months which is forcing companies to slash costs. Therefore, expectations are that the labor picture which saw unemployment rise to 7.8% in November will continue to deteriorate going forward. Nevertheless, any positive data may be enough for the ECB to justify refraining from further easing. Yet, with process continuing to free fall the mounting deflation concerns may leave the central bank no alternative as they adhere to their price stability mandate.

The Pound traded choppy during European trading as it fell to 1.5118 after reaching a high of 1.5269 on weak manufacturing data and falling producer prices. However, the Sterling would find support from the positive European retail sales numbers on expectations that a weak pound will lead to greater future demand. Indeed, the BoE cited the currency’s weakness as a source of stimulus as it creates greater demand for U.K. products and a reason that they weren’t more aggressive in their easing. However, November’s manufacturing data demonstrates that the benefits haven’t started to be realized as activity fell for a ninth month to its lowest levels since 1980. The 2.9% decline was led by a 6.2% drop in chemicals and an 11.0% fall in metals as the global slowdown has dampened demand for raw materials. Meanwhile, factory gate prices fell to 4.7% from 5.1%, but were far greater than the 4.0% that was predicted which may lead the BoE to pause their current easing cycle. The Pound appears to be settling into a range between 1.4500- 1.500 where it could trade for sometime as markets look for signs as to which economies will be the first to emerge from the current downturn

The estimates for the upcoming Non-Farm payroll report have continued to fall from initial prediction of -475,000 to the current if 525,000. Wednesday ADP report which was reconfigured to take into account similar factors as the NFP release showed job losses of 693,000 for December which has some market participants looking for a loss of as high as 1 million. Therefore, we could see bearish price action if the labor report significantly misses to the downside. Conversely, with such low expectations an inline or better print may spark bullish price action as it would reinforce notions that the U.S. is best positioned to emerge from the current economic downturn. Another number to watch will be the unemployment rate, which is expected to shoot to 7.0% from 6.7%. An inline or worse print will increase fears that the jobless rate will climb to as high as 9.0% which will dim the outlook for domestic growth and a potential turn around in 2009.

...more...

US Dollar: US Expected To Lose More Than 1 Million Jobs In Just Two Months

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Dollar__US_Expected_To_1231451059397.html

The weight of recession is a reality that many of the world’s largest economies are already living with; but for the currency market, relative health is of greater fundamental significance than any absolute measures of economic health. This is the frame of mind we should be in when approaching the prospect of another five hundred thousand-plus jobs cut from American payrolls last month when speculating the impact the well-known market-moving Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report could have of the US dollar. And, with the greenback struggling to regain its footing against the euro, British pound and Japanese yen; a hit to growth forecasts of this magnitude could certainly redefine the currency’s long-term trend.

What is the Market Expecting for October Non-Farm Payrolls?



Taking a quick look at the official forecast from Bloomberg’s survey of economists, we can see that reports of generational lows in consumer confidence and sharp declines in consumption trends have been interpreted as evidence of another massive cut in employment through the end of 2008. The consensus is calling for an additional 523,000 jobs to be shed last month – a mere 10,000 fewer than the preliminary report for the previous period. Picking the consensus apart, we further see that of the 72 estimates, the high water market was a dismal 350,000 cut; while the boldest prediction called for a loss of 750,000 jobs. Clearly this shows that regardless of the exact number of the net decline; the market does not doubt that the economy is in for a sizable jump in unemployment for the period.

While the net change figure will be the most market-moving component of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report, it is also important to take note of the unemployment rate and earnings growth numbers. The jobless rate is expected to jump another 0.3 percentage points to 7.0 percent – what would be the highest level since June of 1993. This figure will continue to come into greater contrast going forward as President-elect Barack Obama tries to push through a major economic stimulus plan while warning that unemployment could reach double digits if unchecked. Earnings, on the other hand, have been somewhat overlooked until recently. However income is just as vital a component as employment when measuring the potential for consumer spending. At 3.6 percent, the annual outlook for wage growth is still very high – a factor that could keep the economy from a deeper slump or that is simply lagging the turn in growth.

...more...

[Robbien]

38. Tax cheats busted. Swiss UBS to close secret accounts. Estimate about $18B being hidden

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/09ubs.html

UBS will close 19,000 secret offshore accounts of wealthy U.S. clients under pressure from federal authorities who suspect the IRS is getting ripped off. Balances will be transferred to other banks or UBS divisions, or else checks will be sent directly to clients - creating a damning paper trail. Here's how one UBS client puts it: "You can either take that check and throw it in the woods, or deposit it somewhere and get busted." Prosecutors suspect U.S. citizens have about $18B buried in UBS accounts.

[Demeter]

42. SchadenFreude!

O Freunde, nicht diese Toene!
Sondern lasst uns angenehmere anstimmen und freundenvollere!

O friends! Not these sounds!
But let us strike up more pleasant sounds and more joyful!

Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.
Deine Zauber binden wieder,
Was die Mode streng geteilt;
Alle Menschen werden Brueder,
Wo dein sanfter Fluegel weilt.

Joy, o wondrous spark divine,
Daughter of Elysium,
Drunk with fire now we enter,
Heavenly one, your holy shrine.
Your magic powers join again
What fashion strictly did divide;
Brotherhood unites all men
Where your gentle wing's spread wide.

Wem der grosse Wurf gelungen,
Eines Freundes Freund zu sein,
Wer ein holdes Weib errungen,
Mische seine Jubel ein!
Ja - wer auch nur eine Seele
Sein nennt auf dem Erdenrund!
Und wer's nie gekonnt, der stehle
Weinend sich aus diesem Bund!

The man who's been so fortunate
To become the friend of a friend,
The man who has won a fair woman -
To the rejoicing let him add his voice.
The man who calls but a single soul
Somewhere in the world his own!
And he who never managed this -
Let him steal forth from our throng!

Freude trinken alle Wesen
An den Bruesten der Natur,
Alle Guten, alle Boesen
Folgen ihre Rosenspur.
Kuesse gab sie uns und Reben,
Einen Freund, geprueft im Tod,
Wollust ward dem Wurm gegeben,
Und der Cherub steht vor Gott.

Joy is drunk by every creature
From Nature's fair and charming breast;
Every being, good or evil,
Follows in her rosy steps.
Kisses she gave to us, and vines,
And one good friend, tried in death;
The serpent she endowed with base desire
And the cherub stands before God.

Froh, wie seine Sonnen fliegen
Durch das Himmels praecht'gen Plan,
Laufet, Brueder, eure Bahn,
Freudig wie ein Held zum Siegen.

Gladly as His suns do fly
Through the heavens' splendid plan,
Run now, brothers, your own course,
Joyful like a conquering hero

Seid umschlungen, Millionen!
Diesen Kuss der ganzen Welt!
Brueder - ueberm Sternenzelt
Muss ein lieber Vater wohnen.

Embrace each other now, you millions!
The kiss is for the whole wide world!
Brothers - over the starry firmament
A beloved Father must surely dwell.

Ihr stuerzt nieder, Millionen?
Ahnest du den Schoepfer, Welt?
Such ihn ueberm Sternenzelt,
Ueber Sternen muss er wohnen.

Do you come crashing down, you millions?
Do you sense the Creators presence, world?
Seek Him above the starry firmament,
For above the stars he surely dwells.

Demeter is looking for an opportunity to sing this magnificent work locally....

[tclambert]

96. Ah, now the ninth is running through my head.

Love it. Beethoven and Schiller. Schiller and Beethoven.

[Hekate]

140. Hekate will be glad to add her soprano to Demeter's enterprise. Where's that girl Persephone?

:rofl:

Hekate

[nc4bo]

90. Why wait? Seems so simple to peons like me, print a list of account owners and

splash it across every newspaper page, internet website or tv screen from here to Timbuktu.

These people were hiding money. It's not like this is some clandestine military operation going on here. Why the honeypots?

I want to know there names!

[Hissyspit]

50. Breaking on MSNBC: 524,000 Jobs Lost in Dec.; Unemployment Hits 7.2 Percent

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3681487&mesg_id=3681487

[tclambert]

101. Some good news in Michigan (finally). A123Sysytems plans to build a plant to manufacture batteries

"Battery Maker May Bring Jobs To Michigan: Planned Facility To Hire 14,000 People"

"The plant, A123Systems, said the plan will create jobs for more than 14,000 people and would occupy 7 million square feet."

"A123 estimates it will supply batteries for 5 million hybrid vehicles and 500,000 plug-in hybrids by 2013."

http://www.clickondetroit.com/automotive/18429510/detail.html#-

Interestingly, A123Systems employs only about 904 people now. But they will be a key supplier for the Chevy Volt. Hybrids and electric cars will need massive quantities of batteries, far more than we use in laptops and cell phones now. The Tesla Roadster uses 6,831 per car. The Volt will no doubt have fewer, but Chevy will make more copies of the Volt.

GM had been concerned about the ability of battery companies to manufacture sufficient quantities of batteries for the huge demand the auto market will create. And for awhile it looked like they might have to get their batteries from Korea.

Look, manufacturing jobs in America!

[ozymandius]

52. Futures sentiment before the jobs report

S&P 500 -0.80 905.90 1/9 8:21am

NASDAQ -3.50 1246.00 1/9 8:20am

Dow Jones -18.00 8678.00 1/9 7:53am

[UpInArms]

58. U.S. Stock Futures Turn Higher After Jobs Report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-Stock-Futures-Turn-Higher/story.aspx?guid=%7BB697CF5A%2DAC9E%2D4402%2DB510%2D2329E35E31E9%7D

U.S. stock futures turned higher on Friday as a government report that 524,000 jobs were shed last month wasn't quite as bad as the most pessimistic estimates that were in the market. S&P 500 (SPY) futures rose 5.6 points to 912.30 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) futures added 4 points to 1,253.50. Dow industrial (DIA) futures added 38 points. Nonfarm payrolls dropped 524,000 in December, the Labor Department said, in line with consensus economist estimates and not as bad as the nearly 700,000 job loss that payrolls processor ADP had reported on Wednesday. The unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years. The dollar recovered some losses vs. the Japanese yen, and the FTSE 100 turned 0.3% higher in London after earlier losses. Oil futures also moved off lows of the day. Of stocks in the spotlight, Palm (PALM) built on Thursday's rally, rising 9% in pre-market trade.

Are they doing the rate cut boogey? This is so annoying! There are no rates to cut!

[Pale Blue Dot]

66. "wasn't quite as bad as the most pessimistic estimates"

:eyes:

This is exactly why I'm beginning to hate people.

[Demeter]

68. Grinding One's Heel on the Peons

Ready the FRSP

[UpInArms]

70. Layoff Tracking Website Update

since yesterday's line item post

an entirely new slew of bad news:

1-9-2009 - Layoff Headlines (updated 4-8X a day)

Summit Polymers -215
NCR Closes WI Plant -80
Carter Furniture Closing -70
Findlay Industries Cutting Back
Marion Juvenile Correctional Facility Closing -376
CraftMaster -65
Global Tungsten & Powders -90
Reef -42
Lozier Closing Plant -82
Teleflex Marine Closing Plant -93
Epic Air -20
PSC Phosphate Cutting
Mountain Family RV -12
Big West Refinery -50
Union Pacific -231
Cirrus Design -10
Hawker Beechcraft -1,500
More Layoffs at HON and AllSteel
Stein Mart -209
Science Museum of VA -7
Framington State College -6
Trinity Tank Car -285
City of Naperville -20
Stock Building -1,000
State of Idaho -100
Daimler Trucks -190
Boston Billiard Club -42
Macomb County -10
Sparrow Hospital -23
Freightliner Portland -190
Holly Yashi -8
More Layoffs at Linamar
Moser Funiture -35
Accuride -96
Boise Cascade Plywood Plant -110

1-8-2008 (in addition to yesterday's posting!}

Plum Creek in Montana Shutting Mills -400
Laid Off Worker Commits Suicide
St. Louis Post-Dispatch -39
ON Semiconductor -10%
Trinity Industries -300
Freightliner -2,000
Semitool -280
State of MO -150
Intermek -150
AK Steel Cutting Salaried Employees
American Airlines -170 in Kansas City
Snap-On Closing Escondido Factory -80
WWE -10%
Erickson -260
Gibralter Mine -70
Parker Poe Law Firm -28
Schlumberger -1,000
Nemak in Canada-150
Andersen Windows -450
Pilkinton Glass -45, Maclean Engineering -70
Vistakon -85
ATK -70
Mennie Machine -67
Vermont Teddy Bear -35
Black & Decker -125
500 at Best Buy HQ Take Buy-out
BNSF -30
Bath Iron Works -179
Architecture firm Burt Hill -50
Severstal Temporary Lay Offs
Merideth Corp. -250
Teck Cominco -1,400
Eramet -110
Brush Wellman -65
NC Dept. of Transportation -750 Temps
Sprint in North Carolina -160
Windsor Vinyards -16
Essar Steel Algoma -130
Cooper Tire Closing Georgia Plant -1,400
Nova Chemicals -400
Pinkslips Could Reach 60 Year High
Walgreen -1,000
Great Dane Trailers -70

[DemReadingDU]

75. All these job losses

:(

Congress needs to hurry and approve of Obama's plan to create new jobs, and to stem losses in other areas.

[ozymandius]

100. I've added this to the Handy Links at the bottom of the OP.

It's too late to edit today's OP. Here's where it will be on Monday.

Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    LayoffDaily    The Big Picture    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    LegitGov

[DemReadingDU]

108. Great idea!

nice list, BTW
:)

[Robbien]

71. News on Outsourcing giant Satyam's $2.8B fraud case, India's Enron

According to the NYT Satyam serves as the back office for one-third of the Fortune 500, including some of the largest banks, manufacturers, health care and media companies in the world — handling things like computer systems and customer service for companies that include General Electric, Nestlé, Ford Motor, Cisco and the United States government.

In some cases, Satyam even acted as clients’ outsourced finance and accounting departments.

Satyam withholds employees salaries for next two months
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Infotech/Software/Satyam_withholds_salaries_for_two_months_layoffs_feared/articleshow/3956696.cms

Satyam Computer on Friday announced holding back employees salaries for two months, even as rumours were rife that the company might lay off close to 15,000 workers in the coming days.

The offices of Satyam Computer were rife today with the talks about forthcoming pink-slips at the company, which needs over Rs 500 crore every month just to meet its staff costs and has admitted that its cash position was not encouraging.

Employees said they have received an e-mail saying the company would hold back salaries for two months and asked staffers to bear with it.


CFO said to have attempted suicide

http://www.cxotoday.com/India/News/Satyam_CFO_Attempts_Suicide/551-97591-913.html
Srinivas Vadlamani, CFO of Satyam, who is thought to be involved in one of the major IT company's scam, has attempted a suicide in a house in Ameerpet near Hyderabad. Vadlamani, who had stayed away from public view since the fraud came to light, attempted suicide on Friday morning. He however survived the suicide bid and is recuperating at an undisclosed location, sources revealed

Significantly, in Raju's letter to Securities and Exchange Board of India and the company's board of directors, the name of CFO is missing from the list of those who were 'unaware of the real situation'.

Indian Politicos involved in Satyam. Satyam's chairman trying to extort politicos in exchange for freedom

http://www.freshnews.in/chandrababu-naidu-owns-60-percent-of-satyam-claims-website-111808
Rumors Naidu {Telugu Desam party) has a 60% investment in Satyam. Former Satyam chairman Ramalingam Raju is ready to tell everything about Naidu’s investment in exchange for freedom from being prosecuted.

Stock trading problems

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Indices/Tough_call_stopping_trade_in_Satyam_scrip_Uday_Kotak/articleshow/3956398.cms
NYSE Trading was halted on Thursday when stock dropped 90%. Other stock exchanges debating: "it will be tough for stock exchanges to decide whether to stop trading in the Satyam scrip, which has fallen by over 95 per cent in a matter of two days' trading on the NSE. Against stopping the trading there is an argument that all the information should be provided to investors and they make the best judgement whether to trade, he said. "(An) argument could be the moment you stop trading, you run the risk of illiquidity...Here at least that there could be a different kind of bets being taken by investors...," he said.

Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) said it will replace Satyam Computer’s stock with Sun Pharmaceutical, country’s largest drug maker


Auditors on the hot seat

http://www.accountancyage.com/accountancyage/news/2233658/shareholders-demand-explanation
Only ten days after being brought in by the company to explore merger opportunities, Merril Lynch found that the books did not balance. PwC India has been handling Satyam's audit since 2000. Chairman B. Ramalinga Raju confessed shortly afterwards he had artificially inflated the company's profitability, falsely boosting its balance sheet.

In a statement yesterday, the firm said: 'The audits were conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers in accordance with applicable auditing standards and were supported by appropriate audit evidence.'

'Given our obligations for client confidentiality, it is not possible for us to comment upon the alleged irregularities. PricewaterhouseCoopers will fully meet its obligations to cooperate with the regulators and others.'

[Robbien]

92. Satyam went on a European/ American buying spree in recent years stretching from Boston to Belgium

In the first half of 2008 alone, the company struck deals for all or part of four small to mid-sized consultants and back-office firms, including Bridge Strategy Group of Chicago last January for $35 million.

On April 21, Satyam said it had agreed to buy all of the construction equipment company Caterpillar's market research and customer analytics business for $60 million in cash. That same day, Satyam said it would buy S&V Management Consultants, a Belgian supply chain management company with 60 consultants, for $35.5 million in cash.

These companies, too, may be in peril. "If nothing happens in the next two to three weeks, clients as well as employees will desert the company," said Forrester's Apte.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/09/business/outsource.php

[Hugin]

94. I'd like to see a list of American Corporations doing business through Satyam.

If only to know which of the services I subscribe to are no longer supported...

I'll then ponder some sort of action on 'Breach of Contract'.

This is an extremely dangerous situation, considering how much personal information on
individual subscribers the Un-American Outsourcing Corporations have provided to Satyam
and now Satyam's employees incentive to 'go rogue' and misuse that information.

[Robbien]

98. You read my mind. That is where I started my news search this morning

but got distracted by all the stories.

So far all I've got is

Qantas Airways, Telstra Corp., National Australia Bank, Nestle, General Electric, Ford Motors, Citigroup, General Motors Corp., Nissan Motor Co., Applied Materials Inc., Caterpillar Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., Sony Corp, Applied Materials, Coca-Cola, SanDisk, IBM, Fujitsu and Accenture. They also either have or had the World Bank.

Those are just the names identified in news articles. No comprehensive list has been published so far as I can tell.

The articles said the companies were instructing their lawyers to start reviewing their contracts for exit clauses.

There are three other Indian firms which can pick up some of the slack but many of the articles are saying they cannot satisfy all the potential new clients in the short term.

Cries are starting up for India to bailout Satyum. Too Big To Fail.

[Hugin]

119. This is the ultimate result of the Republican's quest to break the back of organized labor.

There has always been an uneasy agreement between those who hire and those who work.

The agreement was to avoid having the workers rob the owners blind or burn the place down
they were treated fairly. But, now that trust is broken (Driven by the Supply-side uber
alles ideology of the Reaganomics Republicans) and strife like this is the beginning of
the fallout from the failed policy of outsourcing for short term gain.

[Robbien]

124. World Bank dropped Satyam and banned it due to bribes and fraud

The World Bank debarment has been meted out for "improper benefits to bank staff" and "lack of documentation on invoices.” World Bank information security chief Robert Van Pulley admitted to the ban during a recent meeting with the officials of Government Accountability Project (GAP), a whistleblower protection organisation in the US. The bank has handed over the case to the US Justice Department and the Treasury Department.

Satyam started providing IT services to the World Bank in 2003. Two years later, allegations of bribery surfaced. In 2007, an internal World Bank investigation found that former VP Mohamed Muhsin had secured contracts and purchase orders worth $100 million for the Indian firm in return for Satyam's stock options (ADRs) at preferential prices. After which Muhsin was banned permanently from the bank. However, Satyam was allowed to work for the bank till 2008.

There have also been allegations against Satyam of causing security breaches at the bank. World Bank's records, which contain sensitive financial information, have reportedly been illegally accessed over the last year.

http://www.khabrein.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19171&Itemid=59&limit=1&limitstart=2

So bribes, bad work product and security breaches all were known well before last year.

[UpInArms]

74. US RATE FUTURES-See Fed rates near zero for most of '09

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSCHB00057020090109

CHICAGO, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term rate futures held on to earlier gains after December's non-farm payroll losses were not quite as severe as the market had feared.

Futures show continued expectations the Fed will hold its fed funds rate near zero until the third quarter, with an increase to 0.5 percent priced for the November policy meeting.

Nonfarm payroll jobs fell by 524,000 in December, versus the consensus forecast for a drop of 550,000, but losses for October and November were revised up sharply and the jobless rate spiked to a higher-than-expected 7.2 percent.

[UpInArms]

83. Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Roubini-forecasts-recession-last-2/story.aspx?guid=%7BD3E17944%2DFFE5%2D40D3%2DA0E4%2D564C8F901DDE%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor. Roubini was one of the first economists to predict the recession and the credit crunch stemming from the housing bubble. For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010, he said. Consumer prices will fall about 2% in 2009. Housing prices will probably overshoot, dropping 44% from the peak through mid-2010. "The U.S. economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started and the policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009," he said.

(sorry if this a duplicate post - I just now saw it)

[Demeter]

144. Two Full Years Starting When?

Says the curious reader in Michigan, which has been in "RECESSION" since 2001, and "Depression" since ?

[UpInArms]

99. 10:08 EST bad numbers

Dow 8,629.12 113.34 (1.30%)
Nasdaq 1,583.43 33.58 (2.08%)
S&P 500 895.71 14.02 (1.54%)
10-Yr Bond 2.459% 0.014

NYSE Volume 741,965,375
Nasdaq Volume 309,327,312.5

10:00 am : Crude oil futures are down roughly 3.6% to $40.20 per barrel. The early declines come on top of the losses incurred earlier in the week. Week-to-date, oil futures have shed roughly 13%.

Natural gas has slipped roughly 2% to trade at $5.47 per contract. It was down to $5.53 per contract in overnight action.

With oil and natural gas under pressure, the energy sector is down 2.0% as 37 of the 39 companies in the S&P 500 energy sector trade with a loss. Week-to-date the energy sector is down just 2.8%.

Gold is down 0.9% to $847.00 per ounce, while silver is down modestly to $11.05 per ounce.

Gold's downturn cuts into the prior session's advance. Gold is still up 1.2% for the past two sessions. Week-to-date, however, gold is down 3.2%.

Gold's reversal has also undercut recent gains made by Yamana (AUY 6.99, -0.17) and Newmont (NEM 37.35, -0.40).

Early Movers: Trading up: AMOT +72.5%, PALM +19.6%, TBV +18.8%, SNX +18.6%, IHS +18.0%, MDRX +12.9%, HWAY +12.7%, FRD +12.1%, S +10.9%, APOL +10%, DRYS +9.5%, IO +9.2%, YRCW +9.2%, SYK +8.8%... Trading down: OREX -23.8%, LEN -18.8%, BPZ -16%, GBX -15.4%, EBS -13.8%, ANDS -9.8%, PAS -9.1%, CVS -8.6%, ATMI -8.3%, SLT -8%, COH -7.8%, HOMB -7.7%, JBLU -7.5%.DJ30 -112.62 NASDAQ -36.08 SP500 -14.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 528/298 mln/1744 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 635/150 mln/2119

[antigop]

102. Aw, crap! So how "safe" is that stable value fund in your 401(k)?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123146951198967057.html

'Stable-value" investment funds have been one of the last havens in employee-retirement accounts. But one, advised by money manager Invesco Inc. for now-collapsed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., has run into trouble, and is causing worry throughout the retirement-investing world.

In concept, stable-value funds, which generally invest in bonds and other fixed-income instruments, are supposed to maintain principal at par and recently paid out around 4% annually on average. Bolstering that is a built-in safety feature: If the portfolio value falls, the funds have insurance-like contracts with insurers and banks that are supposed to fill the gap.

The $235 million Lehman vehicle, though, lost 1.7% in value in December because bond prices fell and the insurance backing, called a "wrap" in financial parlance, ended after Lehman's mid-September bankruptcy filing.

The reason is tied to the wrap agreements negotiated for at least two of the fund's seven insurance providers, Pacific Life Insurance Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Since the full coverage was no longer effective, Invesco severed the arrangements with them.

The 1.7% loss was subtracted from Lehman investors' accounts, so fund investors ended up receiving about 2% in interest in 2008. The entire situation is causing a stir among stable-value investors, who fear that it may spread to their funds if more bankruptcies crop up. Of course, the shortfall doesn't come close to the 39% decline in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index last year.

I've been worried about this for some time....

[DemReadingDU]

111. 11/24/08 Treasury extends guarantee of MMF to 4/30/09

November 24, 2008
HP-1290

Treasury Announces Extension of Temporary Guarantee Program for Money Market Funds

Washington- The U.S. Treasury Department today announced an extension of Treasury's Temporary Guarantee Program for Money Market Funds until April 30, 2009 to support ongoing stability in this market.

All money market funds that currently participate in the program and meet the extension requirements are eligible to continue to participate. Funds that currently are not participating in the program are not eligible to enter the program. The temporary guarantee program will continue to provide coverage to shareholders up to amounts that they held in participating money market funds as of the close of business on September 19.

more...
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1290.htm


after that
:shrug:

edit: spelling

[antigop]

113. But the stable value fund is not a money market fund and I don't have a MM choice.

Money market funds are not a choice for us.

[DemReadingDU]

115. Uh oh. This is bad news

And the thing with MMF, is that you had to be in the fund of 9/19/08 for it to be guaranteed.


Spouse had retired a few years ago with money in a stable value fund. Last summer I suggested to transfer to an IRA at the credit union, where interest rate was 4%. Hopefully, credit unions are a safe alternative. But who really know what is going to be safe this year, or next year.

[antigop]

116. I agree-- who knows what is safe? But I'd like to do what your spouse did--move it to an IRA.

That's a big rant I have against 401(k)'s -- you can't get your money out until you quit or get fired. (I think there is a provision that you can get it out while still employed if you are 59 1/2, but that doesn't apply.)

We have to keep OUR money locked up in a choice of funds that WE didn't select, with a bunch of fees that WE didn't negotiate. And we can't get the money out unless we leave or get fired.

There should be a way to periodically rollover your 401(k) to an IRA without having to leave a company.

It's OUR retirement money--it shouldn't be held captive in a 401(k) plan.

[DemReadingDU]

118. I think with a 401k, you can get a hardship loan?

Perhaps there is a 'hardship', and you can withdraw part of the 401k funds, and transfer them to a savings account at a bank or credit union.

You might think about stopping any more deposits to the 401k. Open an IRA instead. Or just put the money that was input to the 401k, and instead, stash it in a bank savings account, or in the mattress.

I agree that there should be a way to periodically rollover your 401k to an IRA without having to leave a company.


edit: I am not any kind of professional financial planner. I have no idea if anyone can do these things or not.

[antigop]

123. We are considering stopping our 401(k) contributions (assuming we keep a job)

This is not meant to be investment advice for anyone reading these posts.

At least with an IRA you can put it in an FDIC-insured account.

<Edit to add> People may want to check their 401(K) plan to see if there is a way to roll over their 401(k) to an IRA. Other plans may allow it-- I don't know.

[DemReadingDU]

125. I hope you keep your jobs too

Too much turmoil out there

[Zenlitened]

120. "...you had to be in the fund of 9/19/08 for it to be guaranteed."

AND the company managing your fund had to OPT IN... twice. First when the program was announced, and a second time when it was extended.

Most of the biggies did opt in... T. Rowe Price, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc. But it's not automatic.

[DemReadingDU]

121. Oh Thanks!

I didn't realize companies had to opt in the second time too.

[antigop]

103. WSJ: Wall Street is big donor to inauguration

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123146096981566339.html

President-elect Barack Obama has banned corporations and big donors from funding his Jan. 20 inauguration. But 90% of donations received so far have been raised by well-heeled fund-raisers, including Wall Street executives whose companies have received billions of dollars in federal bailout money.

A total of 207 fund-raisers have collected $24.8 million of the $27.3 million in contributions disclosed by Mr. Obama through Thursday, according to an analysis by nonpartisan campaign finance group Public Citizen commissioned by The Wall Street Journal.

Wall Street employees, as a group, have been the biggest single source of these private donations, according to the analysis. Much of their donations -- $5.7 million total -- has been channeled through financial-services executives who each have bundled together donations worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.

[Tansy_Gold]

105. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you ------ NOT

Is there a limit to how many :grr:s one can put in a single post?

:grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr::grr:


Oh, yeah, and followed by






Tansy Gold

[antigop]

106. Nationwide Inquiry on bids for municipal bonds (collusion among the banks?)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/09insure.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all

The federal investigation that prompted Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico to withdraw his nomination as commerce secretary offers a rare glimpse into a long-simmering investigation of possible bid-rigging, tax evasion and other wrongdoing throughout the municipal bond business.

Three federal agencies and a loose consortium of state attorneys general have for several years been gathering evidence of what appears to be collusion among the banks and other companies that have helped state and local governments take approximately $400 billion worth of municipal notes and bonds to market each year.

E-mail messages, taped phone conversations and other court documents suggest that companies did not engage in open competition for this lucrative business, but secretly divided it among themselves, imposing layers of excess cost on local governments, violating the federal rules for tax-exempt bonds and making questionable payments and campaign contributions to local officials who could steer them business. In some cases, they created exotic financial structures that blew up.

People with knowledge of the evidence say investigators are not just looking at a few bad apples, but also at the way an entire market has operated for years.

“It’s rare to sell a Senate seat, but it’s not rare to sell a bond deal,” said Charles Anderson, who retired as manager of tax-exempt bond field operations for the Internal Revenue Service in 2007. “Pay-to-play in the municipal bond market is epidemic.”

[Roland99]

109. CNN To Air I.O.U.S.A. This Weekend

From email:



CNN To Air I.O.U.S.A. This Weekend

This weekend, CNN will debut the movie I.O.U.S.A. Accompanying clips of the film will be a panel of experts discussing the movie in greater detail as well as its relevance to the current economic crisis. The event will be moderated by Ali Velshi and Christine Romans, hosts of "Your $$$$$." The panel guests will include Concord Coalition President Peter Peterson, former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, former Office of Management and Budget Director Alice Rivlin, and former U.S. Senator Bill Bradley.

The program will be shown twice over the weekend: Saturday, January 10, 2009 at 2:00 PM EST and Sunday, January 11, 2009 at 3:00 PM EST.


I.O.U.S.A. was released in theaters across the country in August and tells the real story of our national debt and why we need to reverse the flow of red ink before our nation faces a fiscal disaster. Highlights of the film include scenes of The Concord Coalition's Fiscal Wake-Up Tour, which has taken its message of fiscal responsibility across the country non-stop over the past two years.

[DemReadingDU]

112. Thanks, I don't think this ever came to theaters near us

marking my calendar

[DemReadingDU]

126. NPR: Money Mystery: Who's Holding U.S. Currency?

January 9, 2009 The federal government, which tracks the amount of money it prints, says $900 billion of its currency is in circulation.

So where is it? Guess who holds the most of our money, then click to hear if you are correct!!

direct link
http://www.npr.org/templates/player/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=99147699&m=99148515

you can also listen from this link
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=99147699

[AnneD]

136. That was a great story....

I enjoyed it this am but too busy to post it.....Thanks.

[Robbien]

127. Lenner Corp accused of operating ponzi scheme by blogger. Stock drops 28% in one day

Per
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLkAhT9Pd.II&refer=home


Don't don't whether Lenner is a ponzi king or not but Lenner is a real stinker. Lenner was the happy recipient of the winning end of CalPERS bet on LandSource Development. Forced land sales by a bankruptcy, Lenner got a billion, pensioners lost a billion.

[specimenfred1984]

132. I like the "Deutch Bank Co-Head leaves to start hedge fund" story there too

The guy lost a billion dollars in 08 so now he's off to scam people via a hedge fund:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLq68brVtIa0&refer=worldwide

[Dr.Phool]

130. CNBC finally gets it.

I just switched on the tube, and Maria is broadcasting from Las Vegas.

[Dr.Phool]

133. Rubin out at Citi.

CNBC reporting that former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin's announcement of his resignation from the Citigroup board is imminent.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/01/rubin_out_at_citi.php


I hope they're not going to foist him on us again in some capacity. There's enough financial bozo's on Obama's team already.

[Karenina]

134. . .

[Ghost Dog]

139. ...

:rofl: :thumbsup: :( :smoke:

[Tansy_Gold]

141. ...

:yourock:

[Dr.Phool]

142. ???

:crazy: :silly: :argh: :crazy: :silly:

[UpInArms]

145. end of the week

Dow 8,599.18 143.28 (1.64%)
Nasdaq 1,571.59 45.42 (2.81%)
S&P 500 890.35 19.38 (2.13%)
10-Yr Bond 2.407% 0.038

NYSE Volume 4,791,104,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,954,715,125

4:30 pm : Though the highly anticipated December jobs report didn't contain any glum surprises, stocks still spent the session trading with marked losses amid continued investor concern.

December nonfarm payrolls declined 524,000, in-line with the 525,000 job losses that were widely expected.

While the numbers weren't as bad as feared, investors remain mindful that overall economic conditions are dour. Specifically, December unemployment is at a multiyear high of 7.2%, while total job losses for 2008 were the most since 1974, and are expected to increase.

Boeing (BA 44.45, -0.34) announced it would cut jobs in its commercial airplane business. The Wall Street Journal reported that oil drillers Schlumberger (SLB 43.01, -2.82) and Halliburton (HAL 19.01, -2.15) were also cutting staff.

The job cuts come amid ongoing economic headwinds. Such headwinds have many companies issuing cautious earnings outlooks. Coach (COH 18.11, -2.79) and CVS Caremark (CVS 25.69, -3.65) lowered their earnings estimates below analysts' forecasts, while Chevron (CVX 72.82, -1.42) expects fourth quarter earnings to be significantly lower than the third quarter results. Chevron earned $3.85 per share in the third quarter. The consensus fourth quarter estimate calls for $1.78 per share.

Best Buy (BBY 28.08, -1.57) narrowed its full-year outlook after its December same-store sales fell 6.5%. Best Buy expects adjusted earnings to range from $2.50 and $2.70 per share. The current consensus stands at $2.61.

The tepid outlooks have made market participants cautious about enter the fold ahead of earnings season, which officially begins Monday when Dow component Alcoa (AA 10.81, -0.55) reports its latest results.

With expectations for earnings season low, investors are making note of the companies that trade with strength on better-than-expected results. Private education provider Apollo Group (APOL 85.27, +8.05) brought in $1.12 per share during its latest quarter. That topped the consensus estimate of $0.98 per share.

APOL's advance lent support to other education providers, which often benefit from higher enrollment amid higher unemployment.

Overall, though, the broader market finished near its session low, and down 4.5% for the week. All 10 economic sectors closed lower.DJ30 -143.28 NASDAQ -45.42 NQ100 -2.4% R2K -4.1% SP400 -2.7% SP500 -19.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2046/694/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2188/926/1.16 bln