STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 8

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday January 8, 2009

DAYS REMAINING UNTIL BUSH IS GONE = 12

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those who predicted the Dow's precipitous return on Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 7, 2009

Dow... 8,769.70 -245.40 (-2.72%)
Nasdaq... 1,599.06 -53.32 (-3.23%)
S&P 500... 906.65 -28.05 (-3.00%)
Gold future... 841.70 -24.30 (-2.81%)
30-Year Bond 3.06% -0.01 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.49% -0.01 (-0.44%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

Handy Links

Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    The Big Picture    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    LegitGov

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Job Search forum

Over the past two days, there has been much discussion over establishing a Job Search forum. I initiated the request to a moderator of LBN, flamingyouth, listing the basis for the proposal and the reasons for doing so. To date, I have not received a response. The moderators are not required to be online at all times. That being the case - my message may not have been received. Therefore I will issue my request with the administrators of Democratic Underground.

Previous discussions about this idea can be found here and here.

We all have been touched either directly or indirectly with what now appears to be 'scorched earth' unemployment figures. When hit with the same crisis some years ago - personal contact networking achieved the most positive results rather than cold calling, walk-ins and issuing a blizzard of resumes. Please feel free to post your thoughts on the matter here.

Thanks!

[MadinMo]

28. I think it is a great idea.

While I have not been affected yet, the company I work for has been RIFing, laying off, firing, whatever you call it, lots of folks since late November. I've got my fingernails dug in as far as I am able and hope to hang on. My 25th anniversary is later this month, which probably won't amount to any kind of consideration if the need arises for another head to axe.

So, yes, I think a job search forum is a great idea.

[AnneD]

44. Ozy thanks for posting......

I sent an e-mail yesterday and have not recieved a response. I invited flamingyouth to check the SWT to view the positive responses. Thanks for getting the ball rolling. DU is like a big e-newspaper and we nees a jobs section now. Got to get back to my job:loveya:

BTW-they are opening a new corrosion study center and that will be an up and comming thing. They will be hiring soon and this need goes across several industries and is a green technology. For example-30% of water going through pipes is lost to corrosion. Just hear it on the radio this am but will try to get info on it.

[ozymandius]

47. You're welcome and thanks.

I've sent my bended-knee appeal to the Admins this morning.

[Tansy_Gold]

45. Count me in as a supporter

After months of trying the usual route to "employment," I found something else that's a paying job but it's not exactly standard employment. I think one of the things that a "Jobs" forum could also do is provide resources and information for those who have been cast adrift and are interested in trying alternatives to the job market.


Tansy Gold, who is definitely an alternative. . . . ...

[Roland99]

50. I think it's the best idea I've ever heard at DU!

:)

Here's a thread in that technical board I mentioned the other day:
http://forums.anandtech.com/messageview.aspx?catid=38&threadid=2085353&enterthread=y

Maybe we could do something similar.


That reminds me...I need to give that guy a call...been a few months. :)

[JNelson6563]

62. Dear Ozy & beloved Marketeers

I never cease to be impressed with how much the participants at DU, and most notably the Stock Thread, look out for each other. This thread is one of the most valuable things on DU and it comes as no surprise the effort to create another highly valuable component for DU is coming from this on-going thread.

I fully support the idea and will do anything I can to help make the effort a success.

Many thanks to you all! :yourock:

Julie

[specimenfred1984]

65. My 2 cents, call it a career forum

People can discuss their careers, career choices, specific avenues to take, etc..., that way it's not limited to a employment postings board.

[Hugin]

67. I agree... We need a broader scope than 'Jobs'.

Especially, if we want to re-encourage job security, training and other labor ideals which extend beyond 'a job'.

[wordpix]

112. agreed---those of us who are underemployed need a career!

[Danascot]

70. Let me know if I can do anything to support

the jobs/careers/employment forum. I already have several excellent employment resources links ready to post once it's up and running.

I think the forum will be well received and very helpful to the broader DU community. The depth and breadth of what DUers can offer never ceases to amaze me. Thanks for doing this Ozy, great idea.

[UpInArms]

76. I think it's a terrific idea, Ozy

and for anyone who might be interested, I heard that the census bureau was hiring for the 2010 census now - it might be worth checking into for at least a short-term fix :shrug:

[Dr.Phool]

80. They are. I talked to a retiree the other day who's going to work for them.

He'll be a crew leader. I guess that's the person who drives people to their sites and takes care of them.

[ozymandius]

91. Thank you, all of you, for your support.

For consideration, here is the text of my e-mail:

Recent discussions on the Stock Market Watch thread have focused on establishing a Job Search forum. The basic idea is to provide networking tools that may be used to help those who need leads, guidance, links to reputable sites and networking help. I have observed that past job search appeals have been mainly limited to individual state forums. While potentially effective, it does limit the scope and dilute the intent when the appeal is limited to one state's forum among threads of varying subject matter.

The consensus among those who frequent the daily Stock Market Watch has culminated with the idea that one-stop shopping would be very helpful - especially among those who are willing to traverse state lines in pursuit of employment.

The latest gathering of comments can be found at this link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3679254&mesg_id=3679256

Please consider this with weighted intent. As you may suspect, a financial issues thread attracts comments from those who have been dealt blows due mainly to unemployment and underemployment from our snowballing economic crises.

Sincerely yours,

ozymandius

[DemReadingDU]

107. This is a wonderful idea! Thanks for initiating this. n/t

[tclambert]

93. It is a wonderful idea.

Websites are a great place for networking, since, you know, the net part of Internet is short for network.

Now, let's get some results.

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

Priority #1: Risk Management
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

One of the greatest calls and investment advice I can remember from the beginning 2008 was the first of the year publication from Brian Pretti at ContraryInvestor.com, with the introduction to his piece provided below:

2008 Investment Themes And Considerations: Part I

The Management Team…We simply hate to kick off a new year on what might seem a bit of a somber note, but before taking even one step further into this new year, we want to quickly discuss the very important concept of investment risk management. We’ve referred to the importance of risk management so many times over the past six months that we’ve simply lost count. We know that for many of you this may be redundant or perhaps a bit simplistic, but we believe now is the time to remember and reinforce in our thinking the incredibly meaningful investment activity that is risk management. For as we look back over our own investment experience, it’s the selling (or hedging) that’s often the hardest of decisions, not the buying. And it’s little wonder as, plain and simple, the equity markets have an upward bias over time. Why so important now? In brief, it’s clear that the US economy is slowing rapidly. As we’ve said in the past, we’re not so sure we’re actually going to see it published, but a domestic recession is as high a probability today as at any time this decade. Let’s face it, the major underpinning of the credit markets that has been crucial both to the real US economy and financial markets over time is sending out SOS signals by the day. Point blank, we’re walking into 2008 at a very high-risk fundamental juncture from a macro perspective, one where the trajectory of a credit cycle of a generation is now in question, and an environment where the Fed and global central banking friends may not achieve yet another perfect reflationary outcome. Although we’ll have plenty to say about fundamentals, investment considerations and investment themes in our early 2008 discussions, we want to show you what we’re watching in terms of signs or signals that will simply force us to invoke capital risk management activities, regardless of our fundamental thoughts and beliefs. Let’s just hope we don’t have to pull the risk management trigger anytime soon. But if we do, establishing some type of game plan in advance reduces the role emotion plays in total portfolio management.

As Brian’s piece at the start of last year was quite insightful and timely, I’d like to present an update of some of his indicators as well as a few others to pound the table going into 2009 the important concept of risk management. The key with risk management is to accept that you won’t be getting in at the first inning nor getting out at the bottom of the ninth inning in terms of market trend changes, but that is an acceptable tradeoff for avoiding a great portion of the bloodbath that ensues with bear markets.

With that being said, the case has been made in several WrapUps in the course of the last six months that the U.S. markets are within the confines of a secular bear market that began in 2000 and will likely play out from the early to middle of the next decade. It is likely that we are in the fourth secular bear market going back to 1870.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 01/03
Briefing.com 540K
Consensus 550K
Prior 492K

14:00 Consumer Credit Nov
Briefing.com $2.0B
Consensus $0.5B
Prior -$3.5B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

21. Initial Claims @ 467,000 - last wk rev'd downward 1k

03. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 24,000 to 467,000
8:30 AM ET, Jan 08, 2009

04. US 4-week average claims down 27,000 to 525,750
8:30 AM ET, Jan 08, 2009

05. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 101,000 to 4.61 million
8:30 AM ET, Jan 08, 2009

06. U.S. 4-week avg continuing claims up 45,000 to 4.47 million
8:30 AM ET, Jan 08, 2009

[UpInArms]

23. Initial jobless claims fall, continuing claims highest since 1982

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Initial-jobless-claims-fall-continuing/story.aspx?guid=%7B37696993%2D6E30%2D405B%2DA3D2%2D43F140B6EE1E%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time applications for state unemployment benefits fell 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 467,000 in the week ending Jan. 3, the Labor Department said Thursday. The drop in this week's data, as well in the prior week, may be due to some layoffs occurring earlier than government analysts had expected, according to the Labor Department, which added that claims could remain low for a couple of more weeks and then tick up. Despite the decline in the most recent weekly data, the level of initial claims is 42% higher than the same period in the prior year. The four-week average of new claims fell 27,000 to 525,750, and is up 53% from the prior year. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting benefits in the week ending Dec. 27 rose 101,000 to 4.61 million - the highest level since November 1982. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 45,000 to 4.47 million - the highest level since December 1982. The insured unemployment rate remained at 3.4%.

[ozymandius]

39. more info

U.S. Jobless Benefits Program Swells to 4.6 Million

....

While the government projects a surge in firings in late December and early January, job cuts may have come earlier last year as sinking sales and the worst credit conditions in seven decades forced companies such as General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC to pare costs. The claims report comes hours before President-elect Barack Obama delivers a speech on the economic outlook in a bid to build support for his stimulus plan.

“The labor market is just hemorrhaging here,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast claims would fall. “Just look at the continuing claims numbers, they give you a better idea of what is going on. Nobody can find work once they’re fired.”

....

The government may report tomorrow the economy lost another 510,000 jobs in December, bringing the 2008 total to a six- decade high of 2.4 million, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate probably jumped to 7 percent, the highest level since 1993.

[ozymandius]

40. Also to add that one should take the past two weeks' data with a pinch of salt.

The holidays will agitate the flows of data. Next week will give us a much clearer picture of all unemployment numbers.

[UpInArms]

42. see my post #41 for details

in all their gore

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3679254&mesg_id=3679482

:scared:

[UpInArms]

84. U.S. Nov. consumer credit falls record $7.9 billion, or 3.7%

01. U.S. Nov. consumer credit falls record $7.9 billion, or 3.7%
3:00 PM ET, Jan 08, 2009

02. U.S. consumer debt paid down for third time in past 4 months
3:00 PM ET, Jan 08, 2009

03. U.S. Nov. credit-card debt falls $2.8 billion, or 3.4%
3:00 PM ET, Jan 08, 2009

[Tansy_Gold]

86. People are being scared sensible.

Those who can pay down debt are doing so. I suspect far more would if they could.

[ozymandius]

4. Oil steady below $43 after plunging on US report

SINGAPORE – Oil prices were steady below $43 a barrel Thursday in Asia after a higher-than-expected increase in U.S. inventories sparked a 12 percent plunge in crude overnight.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell 8 cents to $42.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore.

On Wednesday, the contract tumbled $5.95 to settle at $42.63 after the Energy Information Administration said that inventories of commercial crude oil inventories rose 6.7 million barrels. That was well above the 1.5 million-barrel build expected by analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.49 cents to $1.09 a gallon. Heating oil gained 2.2 cents to $1.56 a gallon while natural gas for February delivery fell 1.2 cents to $5.86 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Hugin]

59. Odd how local gasoline prices went up significantly yesterday...

with that news.

I guess they've got the bubble on the RBOB going again.

Where's Tandalayo?

[ozymandius]

60. Am I reading this correctly?

Did you say forty-three cents per gallon?!

[Hugin]

61. Oops... Sorry, it was 35cents/gallon.

$1.43 to $1.78... No kidding.

Edit to add: I guess I had the $1.43/gallon I paid on Monday night and the $43/barrel in the headline rolling around in my brain. But, it was a 35cent/gallon increase... For real. :o

[Dr.Phool]

78. We jumped from $1.48 to $1.79 over the last couple of days.

That's the station I pass every morning, and is usually close to the cheapest place around.

[Hugin]

79. Have you ever been to 'gasbuddy.com'?

It's a good gas price tracking resource... Especially the charting comparison features.

http://www.gasbuddy.com

[we can do it]

82. Good If You Can Stand the Pro-Rethug Ads

[Hugin]

85. How strange! I don't get those there.

Mine are pretty generic pablum ads selling plastic junk I don't need.

Methinks it's time for you to flush the history/cookie caches on your web-browser! ;)

[DemReadingDU]

108. Ohio gas jumped to $1.85 last week, $1.99 this week

:(

[ozymandius]

5. Pink slips pile higher amid deepening recession

WASHINGTON – Pink slips are piling higher as companies scramble to cut costs even deeper to survive the country's economic and financial storms.

Just days into the new year, managed care provider Cigna Corp., aluminum producer Alcoa Inc., data-storage company EMC Corp. and computer products maker Logitech International were among those announcing layoffs to cope with a recession that has just entered its second year. The flurry of job cuts suggest the employment picture will remain grim this year.

A barometer on layoffs is expected to show Thursday that the number of newly laid off people signing up for state unemployment insurance last week rose to 540,000, up from 492,000 in the previous week, according to economists' projections.

The number of people continuing to draw jobless benefits is projected to stay near 4.5 million, demonstrating the troubles the unemployed are having in finding new jobs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

[ozymandius]

6. Macy's to close 10 stores: report

(Reuters) – Macy's Inc is expected to announce as soon as Thursday it will close 10 locations, the Wall Street Journal reported citing a person familiar with the matter.

The department store operator, which runs more than 810 Macy's stores and also operates the Bloomingdale's chain, had reported a $30 million loss in the first nine months of 2008, with sales dropping 4.3 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090108/bs_nm/us_macys_closures

[Eugene]

32. Macy's will shutter 11 stores in 9 states

Source: Associated Press

Macy's will shutter 11 stores in 9 states

By MAE ANDERSON, AP Retail Writer – 25 mins ago

NEW YORK – Department-store operator Macy's Inc.
said Thursday it will close 11 underperforming stores
in nine states — affecting 960 employees — and
lowered its forecast for the fourth quarter after one
of the weakest holiday seasons in years.

Stores slated to close include locations in Los Angeles,
West Palm Beach, Fla., Nashville, Tenn., and St. Louis,
among others. Cincinnati-based Macy's Inc. says the
closures will cost about $65 million, most of which
will be booked in the 2008 fourth quarter.

Clearance sales at the stores begin next week.

-snip-

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_bi_ge/macy_s_store_closings

[ozymandius]

7. China Losing Taste for Debt From the U.S.

HONG KONG — China has bought more than $1 trillion of American debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home, a move that could have painful effects for American borrowers.

The declining Chinese appetite for United States debt, apparent in a series of hints from Chinese policy makers over the last two weeks, with official statistics due for release in the next few days, comes at an inconvenient time.

On Tuesday, President-elect Barack Obama predicted the possibility of trillion-dollar deficits “for years to come,” even after an $800 billion stimulus package. Normally, China would be the most avid taker of the debt required to pay for those deficits, mainly short-term Treasuries, which are government i.o.u.’s.

....

But now Beijing is seeking to pay for its own $600 billion stimulus — just as tax revenue is falling sharply as the Chinese economy slows. Regulators have ordered banks to lend more money to small and medium-size enterprises, many of which are struggling with lower exports, and to local governments to build new roads and other projects.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/worldbusiness/08yuan.html

[girl gone mad]

19. This one is big trouble.

The perpetrators of the bank bailout fraud were no dummies. You have to give them credit. They saw that the window of opportunity was about to be slammed shut and they seized the moment. We are now facing the real possibility that here may not be money for fiscal stimulus... or for the War on Terror and the War on Drugs or any other big ticket programs, for that matter.

[Tansy_Gold]

25. Well then maybe TPTB will figure out that

"stimulus" is not what's needed at this point, at least not the kind that comes in the form of massive hand outs of worthless cash.

[ozymandius]

29. History

The adversarial relationship between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson is legendary. Each pressed a different vision for our new nation's economic development. Hamilton sought the development of industry as the vehicle for economic growth. Whereas, Jefferson staunchly advocated an agrarian-based economy.

Hamilton's vision won the contest (Jefferson would later retract his objections) when he submitted to Congress on December 5, 1791 his Report on Manufactures. Congress adopted this plan and put it into action in 1792. This system worked for 190 years through several economic recessions and depressions. Even the Great Depression was somewhat blunted because the United States owned the means to manufacture the goods we needed. Meanwhile, public indebtedness could be used for investment resources that characterized the comprehensive New Deal measures to stimulate economic growth.

Hamilton's plan stopped working when the Reagan administration systematically began dismantling our industrial base. I believe this shift was a concerted blow to dissolve the unions. In its place, we became a service-based economy. In the years since Reagan began this initiative, we have become the largest importer of other nations' goods and we've transitioned from the largest creditor nation in the world to the biggest debtor nation.

In sum, without restoration of our manufacturing base, we have no resources with which to contend with the removal of foreign capital inflows (borrowing). The hallmarks of our past success like a robust military, wars on ... drugs or terror or whatever, global political and economic influence will wane. There is simply not enough capital and substantial reasons to keep bailing out the United States when all we manufacture is debt.

We cannot hope to achieve parity with any nation that has a strong manufacturing base.

[JNelson6563]

63. That's it in a nutshell.

Succinctly put friend. :toast:

Julie

[Tansy_Gold]

87. Absolutely. And if a certain president-elect doesn't wise up to this

fact, he can throw away all the money he wants in "stimulus packages" and it won't do a fucking bit of good.

Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. Not make-work jobs. Not Wal-Mart greeter jobs. REAL jobs, making and doing the things people need.




Tansy Gold, getting REALLY angry

[JNelson6563]

97. I have been meaning to tell you

I have greatly enjoyed your contributions to this thread since you've been participating. :yourock:

Julie

[Tansy_Gold]

104. Oh, thank you, Julie!

:blush:

[DemReadingDU]

109. Yes, Real Jobs

Bring back the jobs that get people making the basic necessities - tools, clothes, shoes, maintaining basic infrastructure, etc., etc.

[tclambert]

94. ITA.

And I second Tansy Gold's "Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs" comment. We need customers with more money, which means workers with more money and/or more paid workers.

And there was some good news here in Michigan (for a big change). Battery maker A123 Systems is planning on building a multi-billion dollar manufacturing plant in Michigan to supply batteries for hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric cars. This is a massive market for battery makers. Currently laptop computers and cell phones are the big customers for advanced batteries. Electric cars will need thousands of them per vehicle. A Tesla roadster contains 6,381 lithium ion batteries. One of GM's concerns in introducing the Chevy Volt was whether battery makers could ramp up production enough to supply batteries in the huge quantities they will need.

There was some concern at one point, too, that they might have to turn to Korean manufacturers for the batteries.

[ozymandius]

8. Satyam Chief Admits Huge Fraud (outsourcing mogul)

NEW DELHI — Satyam Computer Services, a leading Indian outsourcing company that serves more than a third of the Fortune 500 companies, significantly inflated its earnings and assets for years, the chairman and co-founder said Wednesday, roiling Indian stock markets and throwing the industry into turmoil.

The chairman, Ramalinga Raju, resigned after revealing that he had systematically falsified accounts as the company expanded from a handful of employees into a back-office giant with a work force of 53,000 and operations in 66 countries.

Mr. Raju said Wednesday that 50.4 billion rupees, or $1.04 billion, of the 53.6 billion rupees in cash and bank loans the company listed as assets for its second quarter, which ended in September, were nonexistent.

....

The revelations could cause a major shake-up in India’s enormous outsourcing industry, analysts said, and may force many large companies to investigate and perhaps revamp their back offices.

....

The size and scope of the fraud raises questions about regulatory oversight in India and beyond. In addition to India, Satyam has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 2001, and on Euronext since January of 2008. The company has been audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers since its listing on the New York Stock exchange.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/worldbusiness/08satyam.html?_r=1&em

[Robbien]

30. Outsourcing which serves over 654 global companies, 185 of which are Fortune 500 corporations

This story is going to be an interesting one to watch in the effect it may have on global outsourcing.

PriceWaterhouse was the auditor and PriceWaterhouse is the major auditor of most Indian firms. Over half of Indian firms are family owned in the same way Satyam was organized. Both facts lead one to think that Satyam may not be one "bad apple".

Blogging Stocks is saying that Satyam's attempt in buying his sons business was a continuation of the scam. "It turns out that the reason he wanted to buy those construction companies was to plug the $1.03 billion gap between the falsely accounted for and real cash on Satyam's books." Does this mean he was trying to steal from his own sons?

Interesting story.

[AnneD]

101. Thanks for picking this one up....

I was too busy today to do much. The company's HQ is in hubby's home town of Hyderabad so I can flesh this out a bit.They started cooking the books and got in to deep (as the CEO said-it was like riding a tiger, he couldn't figure how to get off without being eaten). Everyone is posturing and saying-why didn't the accountants pick this up. But to be honest-I can easily see them bribing people off and I am surprised this hasn't happened before. In a country that pays so little-folks take bribes openly-without shame-even expecting them. That was the one thing that shocked me the most when I went there and one reason why I am always careful of investing overseas.

[Festivito]

9. Debt: 01/06/2009 10,638,425,746,293.80 (UP 2,913,685,386.64) (Little again.)

(Looks almost, just like yesterday. Just small moves.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,318,809,124,655.56 + 4,319,616,621,638.24
DOWN 344,326,906.71 + UP 3,258,012,293.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is -706,932,705.05.
The average for the last 30 days would be -494,852,893.54.
The average for the last 32 days would be -463,924,587.69.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 66 reports in 98 days of FY2009 averaging 9.30B$ per report, 6.26B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 14 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/06/2009 10,638,425,746,293.80 GWB (UP 4,910,229,950,112.23 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 613,700,849,381.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---
12/26/2008 -036,328,594,643.92 -
12/29/2008 -000,737,189,520.41 --- Mon
12/30/2008 +000,055,730,362.68 ------------*******
12/31/2008 +046,553,280,763.13 ------------**********
01/02/2009 -049,252,670,832.20 -
01/05/2009 -000,912,747,082.07 --- Mon
01/06/2009 -000,344,326,906.71 ---

-71,889,498,193.82 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $973,793,943,034.73 in last 110 days.
That's 974B$ in 110 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 96% of that highest year ever only in 110 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 110 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3677262&mesg_id=3677280

[ozymandius]

10. Citigroup sees synchronized global recession in 2009

(Reuters) – Citigroup forecast a synchronized global recession in 2009 and said developed economies may "flirt" with deflation while emerging market economies will slow sharply, adding that global corporate earnings were only a quarter of the way through an expected 50 percent drop.

Citigroup, in its global equity strategy note titled "Battling The Bear," said it now sees global real gross domestic product growth at 0.5 percent for 2009, down from the 2.4 percent forecast it made three months ago.

"The fundamental outlook for 2009 looks dire," Citigroup global equity strategists warned, but added that global equities looked cheap in absolute terms and very cheap against defensive assets.

....

They favor cheaper European equities over "underweight-" rated Asia where the potential for earnings disappointments remain considerable, and are "neutral" on the United States given that the region is further into the earnings downturn.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090108/ts_nm/us_globaloutlook_research_citigroup

[ozymandius]

11. European economic woes deepen

LONDON (Reuters) – Bleak economic data in Europe and a wave of profit warnings and job cuts world-wide soured investor sentiment on Thursday, strengthening the case for further rate cuts and government stimulus efforts.

The European Commission said economic sentiment in the 15 countries using the euro in December plunged amid rising unemployment and as inflation expectations tumbled.

Its economic sentiment index set a record low in December of 67.1 points -- the lowest since records began in 1990.

....

The European Union statistics office said euro zone unemployment rose to 7.8 percent in November from 7.7 in October and confirmed third-quarter gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, the same as for April to June.

Earlier Germany said its exports had fallen by an unprecedented 10.6 percent in November as demand for cars and others mainstays of the manufacturing economy plummeted, deepening worries about the country's already weak 2009 outlook.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090108/ts_nm/us_financial

[ozymandius]

12. U.S. stock futures flat-to-weak before jobless data

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures edged lower Thursday before a report on jobless claims, with markets quickly losing a newfound appetite for risk in the face of a series of gloomy reports on profits and employment.

S&P 500 futures fell 3.6 points to 901.60 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell three-quarters of a point to 1,238.70. Dow industrial futures dropped 50 points.

U.S. stocks dropped on Wednesday after job-cut and profit warnings from heavyweights like Alcoa, Intel and Time Warner combined with a report from payrolls processor ADP estimating that nearly 700,000 private-sector jobs were lost last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 245 points, the Nasdaq Composite lost 53 points and the S&P 500 dropped 28 points.

....

Meanwhile, retailers will be reporting December sales, with the International Council of Shopping Centers expecting a 1% sales fall as the recession, rising job losses and the worst consumer confidence on record impact.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stock-futures-flat-to-weak-before/story.aspx?guid={ABA8C3D6-720A-4FA2-B513-DCBF628753FF}&dist=msr_3

[ozymandius]

13. Intel, Time Warner Shortfalls Signal Further U.S. Forecast Cuts

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The recession is forcing the biggest U.S. companies to acknowledge that forecasts made last year were too optimistic and that demand for products ranging from computer chips to linens is falling faster than projected.

Intel Corp., the world’s largest chipmaker, reported a 23 percent drop in fourth-quarter sales yesterday, steeper than a November projection. Time Warner Inc., the largest media company, will report its first annual loss in six years because of a $25 billion write-down and falling AOL and print ad sales. Lenovo Group Ltd., the maker of ThinkPad laptop computers, said today it’s cutting about 2,500 jobs, 11 percent of the payroll.

....

Winemakers, retailers and strip clubs are also reporting shortfalls or reducing projections as the recession squeezes consumer spending. The economy changed “very quickly and dramatically,” leaving companies short of where they thought they’d be, said Chris Marangi, an analyst for Rye, New York- based Gabelli & Co., which manages $26 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9fc8Zu0o2dE&refer=home

[ozymandius]

14. Obama Warns of Irreversible Economic Decline Without Action

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- President-elect Barack Obama warned that without immediate steps by the government to revive the economy, family incomes will drop, the unemployment rate could reach “double digits” and the U.S. risks losing a “generation of potential and promise.”

In excerpts of a speech he’s scheduled to give today at 11 a.m. New York time in the Washington suburb of Fairfax, Virginia, Obama says that while the cost of his economic recovery plan will add to a deficit already projected to exceed $1 trillion, he “won’t just throw money at our problems.”

....

Obama’s speech, which aides billed as a “major” economic address, is part of a broader pitch to Congress and the American public as he works on selling his $775 billion, two-year economic stimulus plan to pull the U.S. out of a recession. While the excerpts released by his transition office didn’t provide specifics of the plan, advisers said the full speech would expand on previously reported elements.

He also will again call for using the government’s “full arsenal of tools” to unlock credit markets and “a sweeping effort” to stem home foreclosures. Obama also is promising to overhaul financial-markets regulations and crack down on “reckless greed and risk-taking” on Wall Street to restore confidence in markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aT.7rmpZ3WJk&refer=us

---

I wonder if the restoration of Glass-Steagall is part of that confidence building measure.

[Demeter]

15. Media Blamed For Making Economic Crisis Worse

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/media-blamed-for-making-economic-crisis.html

A new poll is out showing 77% of Americans blame media for making economic crisis worse.

Seventy-seven percent of Americans believe that the U.S. media is making the economic situation worse by projecting fear into people's minds.

The majority of those surveyed feel that the financial press, by focusing on and embellishing negative news, is damaging consumer confidence and damping investment, making a difficult situation much worse. The poll was conducted via telephone, December 4 - 7.

Household Incomes:
$25k - $35k -- 79% answered YES
$35k - $50k -- 88% answered YES
$50k - $75k -- 76% answered YES
$75k - more -- 78% answered YES

Demographics:
85% of young adults (18-24 yrs old) answered YES
77% of males and females alike answered YES
65% of blacks answered YES

Richard Scheff, a national expert on corporate liability and white collar crime issues, warns media that they could potentially be exposed to liability despite apparent constitutional protections:

"Although statements by the media are protected by the First Amendment, the survey results demonstrate that the public believes that the press bears some responsibility for the lack of confidence in the economy. One would hope that the media would act less out of self-interest in these times of national crisis," said Mr. Scheff, vice chairman and partner with Philadelphia-based law firm Montgomery McCracken Walker & Rhoads.

Scheff seems to think bad news should be suppressed in the national interest. This is constitutionally dangerous thinking. Who gets to say what is or isn't in the anyone's self interest? From where I sit, it is always desirable to hear the truth from media and the Government.

Sadly, if one wants a positive spin on things, all one has to do is turn on CNBC to get a parade of experts proclaiming the bottom is in and housing will recover in the second half. And if one needs a laugh it's an easy matter to turn on Cramer. Actually it's quite hard to not get a bullish spin on things from the media.

Don't blame the media for fear mongering. The most fear mongering in history was done by politicians, administration hacks like Treasury Secretary Paulson, and GM executives all promising Armageddon if various bailouts were not passed.

There's Emotional Contagion Going On

The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting the Economy takes a toll on mental health.

In a typical week, Berkeley psychotherapist Don McKillop sees clients with a range of emotional issues. But these days, all of his patients have one thing in common: financial stress.

"In the last week," McKillop said, "every one of my clients mentioned anxiety over the economy."

McKillop is not alone. In an economic climate that grows more precarious every day, Bay Area residents are experiencing an epidemic of anger, anxiety and emotional stress, according to local psychotherapists and academics. "There's emotional contagion going on," says Corte Madera psychotherapist Ruth Kalb. "Panic begets panic."

In October, an American Psychological Association survey showed that 83 percent of American women and 78 percent of American men were experiencing heightened stress about money.

Women, the study said, are today more concerned with money issues than personal health. Women over 63 are especially distressed: Worries about the economy rose from 74 percent in April to 92 percent in September.

Inevitably, financial anxieties spill into family relations. "People are struggling with how to talk about this with their kids," Kalb said. "Adult children are needing to move back home, upsetting everyone's rhythm."

Economic anxieties are passed on to children, said Berkeley psychotherapist Susan Regan. "I was with this family in a family session and one of the kids turned to the parent and said, 'Mom, how's your job going? Are you OK?' "

Economic Masochism

While some blame the media for reporting bad news, hoping it will go away, others are fixated on it. Please consider Catching the economic anxiety bug.

Hymie Anisman, a neuroscientist at Carleton University in Ottawa, has diagnosed a new and highly contagious ailment for the recession era: economic masochism.

It was a pal who first exhibited the symptoms many people are experiencing these days -- although this man's case is extreme.

"I have a friend who sits all day going through various journals online and various blogs as if he wants to find more bad news. He's read it all 20 times, he's knows what's there. It's almost like he's addicted by it. But every once in a while he'll get some little glimmer that will reinforce some little glimmer of hope," Dr. Anisman, who studies the effects of stress, said in a recent interview.

Consumer Confidence At Record Low

Growing anxiety over jobs has Consumer Confidence At All Time Low.

Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly dropped in December to a record on growing anxiety over the lack of jobs, raising the risk that spending will keep weakening into the new year.

The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence fell to 38, the lowest level since records began in 1967, from 44.7 in November, the New York-based private research group said today. Another report showed declines in property values accelerated.

Rising unemployment, mounting foreclosures and declining household wealth have dimmed the outlook for consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. This year’s holiday season, the most important for retailers, was probably the worst in at least four decades.

“The deterioration going on right now in the labor market made people feel much worse,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “If people are worried about their jobs, they are not going to spend. That is extremely negative.”

The 60 percent plunge in gasoline prices from July’s record had prompted economists to project confidence would climb, mimicking the improvement in other measures. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 52 analysts called for the Conference Board’s gauge to rise to 45.5 from previously reported 44.9 for November.

Those ever optimistic economists are forever predicting stock market recoveries, housing recoveries, job recoveries and consumer confidence recoveries, all of which set unrealistically high expectations and glimmers of hope that won't pan out.

No wonder everyone's miserable.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


IT'S ALL IN YOUR HEADS, GUYS. SO QUIT YOUR WHINING, AS WHAT'S HIS NAME SAYS.

[sendero]

16. Yeah...

... shoot the messenger. That will fix things for sure.

The fact is those who panic first will save some of their wealth, those who ride all the way to the bottom will be sorry.

If you don't like the doom and gloom in the media, tune in to CNBC and listen to the pump monkeys call the bottom over and over and over and over and over.

[Dr.Phool]

17. Is reading SMW several times a day "Economic Masochism"?

I've got something to relieve the symptoms right here in a bottle.

I usually make a quick swing through a couple of news sites first thing in the morning, before I get to SMW. Yesterday, at the top of MSNBC's page was a question. "Is this market rally for real this time"?, or something like that. The answer at 4:00pm, nope.

I crack up every time I watch the cheerleaders on CNBC, calling the bottom. in the face of horrible news. One moran, last month, even stated that the recession was now over. And I think that was before they even officially admitted that we were in one. Goddamned librul media.

I'll head over to the dog park in a few minutes, and get some real economic advice from a couple of the Fudd's buddies. A lab and golden retriever tandem named Katie and Mac. If they're rolling in the mud, SELL. They're not quite as animated as Cramer, but they're more accurate.

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Prognosticators

Relying on whether the dogs are rolling or romping is probably as good as anything.

Or like the two fishing buddies who got up early every morning, rowed out to their favorite spot on the lake, and didn't catch a whole lot. Then one day they see this woman row out in a spiffy little boat, throw her line over the side and in no time she's got a couple nice fat fish. She rows back to shore and disappears into her cabin. Next morning same thing happens. Next day, again. This goes on for a few days. She's not out for more than five, ten minutes and she's got the day's catch.

Then she doesn't show up one morning and the two buddies are wondering what happened, so when she does return they decide to row over to her and ask what her secret is.

She shrugs and says, "It's real simple. Before I go out, I lift up the blankets and look at my husband. If it's layin' over on the right side, I fish off the right side of the boat. If it's flopped over to the left, I drop my line off the left. Works every time."

The two buddies are flabbergasted, but one is a little quicker than the other.

"And what if it's standin' straight up?"

"Then I don't go fishin'."

[AnneD]

102. OMG ...

:wtf::spray::rofl:

Tansy you owe me a new monitor.

I love to fish and years ago I swore that I would develop the best bait in the world...Had a Name for it and all. Master Bait-the Boss Bait. I must have been 16 and out on a family fishing trip when I announced that plan to family and our close friends. The adults were reduced to tears and and breathless laughter and the kids were asking what is so funny.:evilgrin:You got to watch out for the quit ones.

Another bright idea......ridiculed.

[Tansy_Gold]

103. I actually saw this on a bumper sticker in Phoenix about

20 years ago. I think it was at the corner of 75th Ave & McDowell --


"Bill's Bait & Tackle -- Where all the Master Baiters shop"



Tansy Gold, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off topic

[AnneD]

105. Most folks go for new heights.....

but some plumb for new depths.

AnneD, right in the trench with ya............

[Tansy_Gold]

106. One is tempted to say. . . . .

"What a bunch of wankers we are" but of course it doesn't apply to US :evilgrin:



Tansy Gold, who has had a very discouraging evening dealing with stupid people including one self-professed "proud to be a staunch Republican" who is dumber than a box of frickin' rocks*.



* and it was at a local rock & gem club meeting, so I assure you, I mean no insult to the rocks, but this woman was stooooooooooooopid. What a wanker!

[DemReadingDU]

110. too funny

:rofl:

[ozymandius]

24. Some may call me a sadist.

I really don't try to find bad economic news to grease the gears in the morning. The bad news just picks me up by the lapels and shakes me like a rag doll.

In "The End of Wall Street" segments I posted yesterday, an interviewer asks a broker/analyst, "When will this financial crisis end?"

He responds with an incredulous look, rolling his eyes, saying, "I don't know.... Uh, It will end on August 31st... Yeah."

I declare that was a stupid question! But it is the kind of question that results from lazy thought. Which brings me to Cramer and his band of clown-shoe-wearing, rainbow-fro-wig-sporting, pom-pom-waving colleagues. Two dogs rolling in the mud are much more reliable indicators of future performance in equities. The dogs actually do more work than their tee-vee counterparts.

[Tansy_Gold]

27. Dogs v. humans (no joke)

I have four dogs, and many of my friends have dogs. Most of us pretty much understand that while dogs can be pretty smart at times, they're also operating at a different sensory level.

All four of my dogs go outside in the morning, and three of them usually come back inside pretty quickly. One generally likes to stay out a bit longer. So the BF gives the first three a "cookie" and holds one back for #4. He used to set it on the kitchen counter and whichever of us let her in would give her the #4 cookie.

Well, a few days ago, one of the other dogs figured out that he was big enough to reach the #4 cookie on the counter. Needless to say, he gobbled it down. So today, BF decides he will "hide" the #4 cookie on a differnt counter. When the big dog immediately went after it, BF decides the big dog must be really smart to figure out where the cookie was hidden.

"No," I said bluntly. "He can smell it. What he 'learned' was that he can reach it."

"Oh no," BF blustered. But of course it's all bluster so I walked away and took the #4 cookie with me to give it to the #1 dog when she finally came in.

But it's all an example of exactly the kind of "lazy" thinking you're talking about, Ozy. It's like these economic and financial "theorists" who put their formulas down on paper and it's all numbers and symbols and functions and this and that, but they never manage to figure out that humans just don't think and behave like numbers. Nor do we all think or behave the same, even in reaction to the same news. One guy loses $10bn of his bank's money and kills himself. Another guy loses $50bn of his friends' money and says let's party on. Another guy claims aliens from the planet Chlorophonic put implants in his brains and made him do it. :shrug:

Sometimes I read SMW just to find out how bad it's getting for the uber-rich. I already know how bad it is


for


Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

34. You hit the crisis key note with this sentence:

It's like these economic and financial "theorists" who put their formulas down on paper and it's all numbers and symbols and functions and this and that, but they never manage to figure out that humans just don't think and behave like numbers.

That thought has been expressed in professional writings describing our current derivatives crisis. Your description is much more succinct. The elaborate algorithms devised by MIT and Chicago School of Economics mathematicians could never calculate human behavior. I also believe that these mathematicians created something that they, themselves, never intended to use. The net sum result is a Rube Goldberg contraption that selfish individuals took way too seriously.

[Tansy_Gold]

48. Well, but that's why I keep saying that the economists and the

politicians would do much better if they were students of history and sociology.

I see these things going on and to some people -- those in the general PTB camp -- nothing makes any sense. They're all panicky because it doesn't fit their models and no one could have imagined and all that happy horse shit. Well, duh, people, get your heads out of your bank statements and spend some time in the real world. Of course Tulipmania was insanity, but you know what? PEOPLE FELL FOR IT.

The Madoffs of the world understand this. They know greed. They know people. And maybe they don't do it on a conscious level, but it doesn't matter.

Lee Iacocca said something years ago about Chrysler and fins. Everyone mocked the ugliness of the cars with fins, but according to Iacocca, the "experts" didn't know squat. So Chrysler (and Cadillac, too, as I recall) put the damn ugly fins on the cars and they sold like hotcakes.

We are essentially still very emotion-driven creatures. That's what Ayn Rand never took into account. She never had any concept of how people will act directly opposite their own logical self interest.

I dunno. Maybe I'm just smarter than the average bear or something, but all of this seems so fucking obvious to me.

Maybe they've never fallen in love.




Tansy Gold, who has

[Dr.Phool]

56. Here's one I've posted before from Scientific American

I keep it bookmarked because it's always nice to pull out every now and then.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-economist-has-no-clothes


The Economist Has No Clothes
Unscientific assumptions in economic theory are undermining efforts to solve environmental problems

By Robert Nadeau


The 19th-century creators of neoclassical economics—the theory that now serves as the basis for coordinating activities in the global market system—are credited with transforming their field into a scientific discipline. But what is not widely known is that these now legendary economists—William Stanley Jevons, Léon Walras, Maria Edgeworth and Vilfredo Pareto—developed their theories by adapting equations from 19th-century physics that eventually became obsolete. Unfortunately, it is clear that neoclassical economics has also become outdated. The theory is based on unscientific assumptions that are hindering the implementation of viable economic solutions for global warming and other menacing environmental problems.

The physical theory that the creators of neoclassical economics used as a template was conceived in response to the inability of Newtonian physics to account for the phenomena of heat, light and electricity. In 1847 German physicist Hermann von Helmholtz formulated the conservation of energy principle and postulated the existence of a field of conserved energy that fills all space and unifies these phenomena. Later in the century James Maxwell, Ludwig Boltzmann and other physicists devised better explanations for electromagnetism and thermodynamics, but in the meantime, the economists had borrowed and altered Helmholtz’s equations.

The strategy the economists used was as simple as it was absurd—they substituted economic variables for physical ones. Utility (a measure of economic well-being) took the place of energy; the sum of utility and expenditure replaced potential and kinetic energy. A number of well-known mathematicians and physicists told the economists that there was absolutely no basis for making these substitutions. But the economists ignored such criticisms and proceeded to claim that they had transformed their field of study into a rigorously mathematical scientific discipline.

Strangely enough, the origins of neoclassical economics in mid-19th century physics were forgotten. Subsequent generations of mainstream economists accepted the claim that this theory is scientific. These curious developments explain why the mathematical theories used by mainstream economists are predicated on the following unscientific assumptions:


* The market system is a closed circular flow between production and consumption, with no inlets or outlets.
* Natural resources exist in a domain that is separate and distinct from a closed market system, and the economic value of these resources can be determined only by the dynamics that operate within this system.
* The costs of damage to the external natural environment by economic activities must be treated as costs that lie outside the closed market system or as costs that cannot be included in the pricing mechanisms that operate within the system.
* The external resources of nature are largely inexhaustible, and those that are not can be replaced by other resources or by technologies that minimize the use of the exhaustible resources or that rely on other resources.
* There are no biophysical limits to the growth of market systems.

If the environmental crisis did not exist, the fact that neoclassical economic theory provides a coherent basis for managing economic activities in market systems could be viewed as sufficient justification for its widespread applications. But because the crisis does exist, this theory can no longer be regarded as useful even in pragmatic or utilitarian terms because it fails to meet what must now be viewed as a fundamental requirement of any economic theory—the extent to which this theory allows economic activities to be coordinated in environmentally responsible ways on a worldwide scale. Because neoclassical economics does not even acknowledge the costs of environmental problems and the limits to economic growth, it constitutes one of the greatest barriers to combating climate change and other threats to the planet. It is imperative that economists devise new theories that will take all the realities of our global system into account.

[Dr.Phool]

77. Further evidence of that.

His Royal Fuddliness is a Golden Retriever-Lab mix, and I suspect some manatee to explain his girth. Labs have a legendary sense of smell. There's a guy who comes to the park on week-ends with his 2 dogs. He's a wealthy, retired GM exec, who went to college with Joe Biden. He usually brings a baggie with several dog biscuits in his pocket to share with the other hounds. And whenever he walks in the gate, the Fudd zeroes in on him, and sits at his feet.

Last week, he walked in, but had left the treats on his kitchen counter. The Fudd took a few steps towards him and stopped. He then turned his attention to a new woman standing about 25 feet away, waddled over, sat down at her feet, and put his snout against her purse.

She asked me what is he doing. I asked, "do you have a biscuit in that purse?" She replied yes. I said "he knows". And we had never seen her at that park before.

[ozymandius]

18. Even Karl Rove says our economy sucks but his analysis sucks too.

Here is Rove's attempt to explain it all away at the WSJ: President Bush Tried to Rein In Fan and Fred HA! HA!

Here is Barry Ritholtz's point-by-point response: Karl Rove’s Factually Challenged Housing Revisionism

As the saying goes, you are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. The instant historical revisionism by Karl Rove in today’s WSJ — mythmaking writ large — contains an egregious combination of false statements, crucial omissions and misleading assertions.

A few thoughts are required to correct Rove’s attempt to create a false and deceptive narrative. Consider these few corrections:

1. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were among the principal culprits of the housing crisis” Wrong. Fannie and Freddie were cogs in the giant mortgage machine, but they had nothing to do with the abdication of lending standards from 2002-07. That was a function of the Lend-to-Securitize business model of the sub-prime mortgage originators. THAT was the primary cause of the housing boom and bust, along with Ultra-low rates and a lack of Fed regulation of these sub-prime lenders.

2. “Fannie and Freddie were too large and overleveraged” True. This had been pointed out by many people, before Bush and afterwards, that Fannie was a problem. Chief amongst the Fannie critics was Fed Governor William Poole. He deserves credit for his many early warnings about Fannie Mae and the GSEs. He was ignored by Alan Greenspan. Also ignored was Fed Governor Edward Gramlich, whose early warnings about subprime and predatory lending and were both timely and prescient.

3. Democrats controlled the Congressional Debate on GSEs: Rove somehow fails to note the GOP controlled Congress from 1994-2006, including the first 6 years of the Bush Presidency. If the President wanted to rein in the GSEs, he needed only make it a major priority, and not a footnote in the 2001 budget.

4. “largely unreported story is that to fend off regulation, the GSEs engaged in a lobbying frenzy.” WTF? This has been widely reported in the media for sometime now.

5. GSEs bought $ trillion of subprime debt and “liar loans,” almost all bought between 2005 and 2007. This bulk-up in risky paper made it possible for banks to lend imprudently on a massive scale. Facts are correct, conclusion is wrong. By 2005, the die was set. The GSEs were very late to the party, buying sub-prime at the top of the market. The peak of homes sales (units) were August 2005, and the peak in prices were in 2006, just a few months later. From there, it was all downhill. By the time the GSE’s were buying sub-prime debt, it was all over but the crying.

6. OMISSION: Bush thwarted attempts to make lenders behave responsibly: Gee, somehow Mr. Rove forgot this one. Bank regulators had proposed new guidelines for writing risky loans. These were internal administrative rules; had they been enacted, the worst of the housing and credit crisis might have been avoided. The Bush administration backed away from proposed crackdowns on the subprime, no-money down, interest-only mortgages that were critical contributors to the credit and housing crisis.

There's more.

[nc4bo]

43. And when the "media" actually reports "some" truths, lots of Americans don't want to deal with it -

even as it reaches down and slaps the holy $$$$ crap $$$$ out of them.

Americans don't really want the truth, not really. It's just so damned scary and might make you stay up at night terrified at all the horrible possibilities. Much easier to listen to saccharin coated manufactured M$M/GOP/GOV BS comfort food so they can sleep better at night.

:puke:

A Few Good Men:

M$M/GOP/GOV: You want answers?
JOE PUBLIC: I think I'm entitled to them.
M$M/GOP/GOV: You want answers?
JOE PUBLIC: I want the truth!
M$M/GOP/GOV: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns.

The Matrix
written by Andy Wachowski & Larry Wachowski (and slightly modified by nc4bo).

M$M/GOP/GOV: I imagine that right now you're feeling a bit like Alice. Tumbling down the rabbit hole?
JOE PUBLIC: You could say that.
M$M/GOP/GOV: I can see it in your eyes. You have the look of a man who accepts what he sees because he's expecting to wake up. Ironically, this is not far from the truth. Do you believe in fate, JOE PUBLIC?
JOE PUBLIC: No.
M$M/GOP/GOV: Why not?
JOE PUBLIC: 'Cause I don't like the idea that I'm not in control of my life.
M$M/GOP/GOV: I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know, you can't explain. But you feel it. You felt it your entire life. That there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there. Like a splinter in your mind -- driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I'm talking about?
JOE PUBLIC: The Matrix?
M$M/GOP/GOV: Do you want to know what it is?
(JOE PUBLIC nods his head.)
M$M/GOP/GOV: The Matrix is everywhere, it is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window, or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work, or when go to church or when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
JOE PUBLIC: What truth?
M$M/GOP/GOV: That you are a slave, JOE PUBLIC. Like everyone else, you were born into bondage, born inside a prison that you cannot smell, taste, or touch. A prison for your mind. (long pause, sighs) Unfortunately, no one can be told what the Matrix is. You have to see it for yourself. This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.
(In his left hand, M$M/GOP/GOV shows a blue pill.)
M$M/GOP/GOV: You take the blue pill and the story ends. You wake in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. (a red pill is shown in his other hand) You take the red pill and you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes. (Long pause; JOE PUBLIC begins to reach for the BLUE pill) Remember -- all I am offering is the truth, nothing more.
(JOE PUBLIC takes the BLUE pill and swallows it with a glass of water)

Sorry if this post seems silly and a waste of time but this is exactly how I see the majority of Americans. My hope soared when minds opened up enough to elect Barack Obama to become POTUS. They KNEW or SENSED something was terribly wrong with the GOP and the way our government is operating. But my hopes always seem to drop like a brick when I hear the results of little polls like this because it means that people still have not truly accepted reality. Does the average American really want to hear more? These little polls tap into common American thinking.

I may be wrong though (I hope I am)and wouldn't be the first time.

[Tansy_Gold]

88. nc4bo, you're not wrong

I know zilch about The Matrix, but I'm sitting here like Cassandra every day watching stupidity rampage through our species like some virulent pandemic, which is probably redundant but then what isn't these days?

[UpInArms]

22. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.059 Change -0.045 (-0.06%)

Dollar Vulnerable As Fed Options Limited And Growth Fades

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dollar_Vulnerable_As_Fed_Options_1231361847623.html

A new year may have begun, but the same fundamental difficulties of 2008 remain for the US economy and its currency. In fact, conditions have arguable deteriorated from just a few quarters ago; and policy officials are quickly running out of options to preventing a full-blown depression and another financial crisis.



<snip>

A Closer Look At Financial And Consumer Conditions



The height of the financial crisis back in October seems to be a thing of the past; but modest improvements to market conditions in thin liquidity is hardly confirmation that things have returned to normal. Indeed, short-term Libor rates are quickly catching up to their risk-free counterparts, but there is still a very visible gap between the lending rates that financial institutions are receiving versus those available to consumers and businesses. In fact, since the Fed instituted its aggressive pace of rate cuts, average loan and mortgage rats have barely budged. This is reflective of ongoing fear on the part of banks as they build reserves to buffer against another credit crunch.



Recently released data reveals that this past holiday shopping season was the worst in four decades – an ominous outcome considering retailers make the bulk of their annual revenue during that short period alone. This is likely to further encourage firms to shed jobs and abandon planned investments in order to prevent a bankruptcy. What’s more, this will no doubt have a direct impact on employment. National payrolls shrank by more than half a million through November, and the December numbers on Friday are forecasted to see similar losses. From this point on, the consumer holds the reigns on how deep the nations recession will be.

...more...

Pound Rises after BoE Cuts Benchmark Rate By 50 Bps, But Leaves Doubt of Further Easing

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Pound_Rises_after_BoE_Cuts_1231417214948.html

The BoE cut their benchmark rate by 50 bps as expected bringing it to 1.50% which is the lowest in the history of the central bank which extend back to 1694. The concern that inflation would undershoot their 2% target was the main reason for the reduction as prices are expected to fall further. The committee also expressed concerns that the outlook for investment continues to deteriorate and stated that further measures were needed to boost lending to businesses. However, the central bank claimed that the pound’s significant drop and falling inflation will provide stimulus to the economy. The comments were somewhat hawkish and left doubts of further easing, which sent the pound up over 100 pips to test 1.5200.

A slew of European economic data crossed the wires today furthering the case for an ECB rate cut. Economic confidence fell to a record low of 67.1 from 74.9, while consumer confidence dropped to -30 from -25. Final GDP numbers for the 3Q confirmed that the economic region is in a technical recession as it posted -0.2% growth. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 7.8% from 7.7% which was the highest in two years. Germany, Europe’s largest economy showed signs that the current downturn may continue to accelerate as exports fell by a record 10.6%. November factory orders in the export driven nation dropped by 6.0% after a decline of 6.3% the month prior, which dragged the annualized to a record low of 27.2%. The Euro would drop a 100 bps leading up t the data, after a brief period of consolidation the Euro would weaken as the pound strengthen against on the back of the BoE’s comments.

Swiss fundamental data added to the dour outlook for Europe as unemployment jumped to 3.0% from 2.7% which was the highest in 19 months. Companies have been forced to cut payrolls as global demand has dried up for Swiss goods. Meanwhile, inflation fell to 0.7% from 1.5% adding to the global deflation concerns which may spur other central banks to employ quantitative easing similar to the Fed. After falling to as low as 1.0918 yesterday, the dollar/franc has pushed back above 1.1000.

Today’s jobless claims number is expected to rise to 545,000, adding to the deteriorating labor picture. Indeed, yesterday’s ADP report that showed the economy lost 693,000 jobs in December making initial estimates of -500,000 for tomorrow’s NFP reports look tame. The dollar has come under pressure as the outlook for growth in 2009 worsens. However, as traders start to anticipate the same fallout from the financial crisis in Europe and Asia, the dollar may resume its upward trend over the medium term. Expect the greenback to continue its weakness against the Yen and Swiss Franc in the short term, as risk aversion has taken hold of markets as forecasts for a rebound in growth get pushed out until 2010.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. Dollar dips after U.S. jobless claims data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Dollar-dips-after-US-jobless/story.aspx?guid=%7BB0376ED5%2D6CA6%2D46FB%2DA207%2D6D2B7136C541%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell against most major counterparts early on Thursday, after the market shrugged off a report showing U.S. jobless claims fell in the latest week. On Wednesday, a private-sector survey suggested a steep drop in employment in December. The goverment employment report for December will be released Friday. The dollar index ($DXY: 81.52, -0.76, -0.9%) , a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted index of six major currencies, stood at 81.514, compared with 82.490 ahead of the data. Initial claims for unemployment benefits declined 24,000 to 467,000 in the week ended Jan. 3. Some analysts noted the numbers at this time of year tend to be volatile because claims slow during the holidays.

[DemReadingDU]

26. Website keeping track of major layoff headlines

http://www.layoffdaily.com/


updated 4-8X a day


Looks like this site started in December

[UpInArms]

41. good grief!

1-8-2009 - Layoff Headlines (updated 4-8X a day)

Wolverine Footwear -450
Cytec Industries -600
Krozer-Keystone Health System -400
Macy's to Close 11 Stores
Dell in Ireland -1,900
Google -6,000?
Misc. Ohio Layoffs
Wilkes Regional Medical Center -45
Mattoon Precision -16
Pittsburgh Glass Works Cutting
Turning Technologies -31
Blue Hill Hospital Plans Layoffs
Nishikawa Auto Supplier -100
Crystal Cabinets - substantial layoffs
Dept. Mental Health in Massachusetts -100
Scheels Sporting Goods -50
X-PAC -30
Mutual of Omaha -100
Trane -111
Tenneco -127
Musashi Auto Supplier -54
Aleris International -100
Thermo King -21
Motion Computing -30
Collette Travel Co. -40
Fair Isaac -250
Lenovo -2,500

1-7-2009

Janesville Acoustics in Ohio Auto Supplier -91
Ohio Nursing Home -39
EMC Corp. -2,400
Goody's Family Clothing to Liquidate -9,800
Stature Electric -17
L-3 Link -17
Vertellus Specialties Vitamin Maker -50
Koch in Witchita -150
Riverview Health Care -39
ShopNBC Cuts 11%
Weirton Medical Center -36
OLPC Cuts 50% of Staff
Syracuse University -45
Gamesa SA -184
Community National Bank -16
Dodge Printing Co. in Utica NY -16
Old Mutual Business Services -60
Intalco in WA State -80
Americall Center Closing -74
Lee County NC Unemployment Rate Hits 9.8%
ADP: 693,000 Jobs Lost in Dec.
Les Schwab Tire Co. in Pinevelle, OR -65
NetShape Technologies Closing Plant
Jewelry TV Initiates More Layoffs
Sangart Axing Jobs
Weyerheuser Canada Plant -140
JW Aluminum in Arkansas -15
More at Mercruiser -70
Hanford Pharmaceuticals -34
PPG Industries -75
Pearl River Resort -570
Delphi: More Cuts -150
Meridian Hospital in NJ -65
Consol Energy Closing Coal Mine -260
Springs Global Closing Plant: Moving to Brazil -365
Roadway Express Ratchets Up Layoffs -300
Survey: US Companies May Triple Job Cuts This Year
Michigan Unemployment Hotline Crashes
Ohio Unemployment Hotline Crashes
NY Unemployment Hotline Crashes
Kentuckians Jam Unemployment Hotline
Ontario Hospitals May Cut 1,000
DeJamCo Recycling Closes
Millstone Power Station Cuts Jobs
Jay Industries Cutting Workforce
Barclays Bank -400 UK Tech Jobs
Heska Corp. -30
Navistar -200
Tennis Ball Plant Closing - Moving to China
Chelmsford -250/Kronos Inc.
Arrowhead Credit Union -20
Lee County School District in FL -400
Mullican Lumber in W. Virginia -77
Valley City Alabama -4
Mastercraft Boat Co. in TN -56
Uniontown Hospital -50
Trison Coatings -10
SEI Call Center Co. Chopping Jobs
Berenstein Display -30
Goss International -200
Nishikawa Standard Co. -100
Vermont Composites -28

1-6-2008

Kent State U. Offering Free Tuition to Laid Off Workers
Ziff Davis Media -30
Ethan Allen Closing Upholstery Plant
Barden Building Systems Closing Plant -20
City of Sparks NV -34 More
Plexis Corp. in Idaho -35
Viracon -100
Cabell Huntington Hospital -40
Caldwell Mfg. in Rochester NY Closes Plant
Yorktowne Cabinetry -70
Arizona Attorney General -20
Aqua Glass -30
Topy America Auto Supplier -45
National Business Institute -25
More Layoffs at Cessna
Andersen Windows -40
Baptist St. Anthony's -47
Phoenix Coyotes -19
Atlantic City Casinos Cut 2,125 in 2008
Alcoa Aluminum in TN -450
McGraw Hill -375
Wolf Appliance -79
Boston Co. Asset Management -90
Carmeuse Lime & Stone Shuts Plant -24
Hamilton County Ohio Deptuties -35
Renegy Holdings, Inc. -42
Forbes -19
Pensacola Public Defender's Office -13
Noble Hospital in Westfield, MA -9
Hernando County FL -6
Clearspring Technologies, Inc. Laying Off
Micrel Cutting 6% of Workforce
LM Glasfiber in Little Rock -150
Tulsa World Newspaper -28
Colorado Railcars Shuts Plant Liquidating Assets
Sea Ray Boats Mothballs Plant in Knoxville -300
Jim Walter Homes Closing -230
YRC Trucking Cuts 300 More
City of Santa Ana -45
Kansas Racing & Gaming -11
Ogilvy & Mather -150
International Truck -199
LiveJournal -20
Day4 Energy -95
Fulton Hospital in NY -36
Logitech -525
Toyota Shuts All Japan Plants for 11 Days
Laird Technologies Closes Plant
Temporary Plant Shutdown at Bush Hog
KBI Norcal -70
Stowe Textile Plant -550
Merrimack Valley Hospital -5
Los Angeles School District -3,000
Getrag Corp. -141
City of Clovis -18
Florida State University -200
Diageo Canada -90
Consonus Technologies -14
City of Sacramento -8
NSK Lays Off 71 More
Food Stamp Rolls Grow by 17.3% from Sep07 - Sep08

1-5-2008

DMI Industries -40
Wynit in N. Syracuse, NY -60
City of Lincoln CA Chopping Jobs
JL French Auto Supplier Laying Off
Schwab Tire in Oregon -27
Waterford Crystal -2,700
Titan Tire -83
State of Louisianna -335
LPL Financial -275
Kindel Furniture -24
Cigna -1,100
Genworth Financial -1,000
Perceptive Software -53
Reno Airport -48
Rio Hotel Casino -70
Sandals Resorts in Caribbean -650
Borox -160
Bosch South Carolina Facility -200
Lee Memorial Hospital -36
US Steel: Lone Star TX Plant -50
Advance Auto Parts Distribution Center -19
Trucking Co. YRC Worldwide, Inc. -160
Choctaw Casino -570
Agilent Technologies -800
City of Morgan Hill, CA -13
NorthStar Neuroscience Closing -38
Four TN Companies Announce Layoffs -179
State of WI Predicts 65,000 Jobs Lost in 09 a 4X increase
NPR: U.S. Manufacturing in Major Recession
Arena Football League -25
PA Coal Mine Closing -50
Orange County Lays Off 213 Social Workers
Satisfied Brake -177
Georgia Gulf Closes Canadian Plastic Plant
Layoffs Likely At Colorado State University
Reader submission: More Layoffs At Micron
IBM Layoff Rumors -16,000
Stratford County in New Hampshire -40

1-4-2008

Gerards Bakery Closes, 100 Employees Get No Pay
North Carolina Printing Plant -60
Interlake SC Plant -50
3 Business Closures in Carthage MO
William Beaumount Hospitals -165
Idaho May Trim 100 State Jobs
1-3-2008
Griffin Textile Plant Closing & Moving to Brazil -350
IVC Veneer Co. -20
Laid Off Comair Pilot Submits This: Comair Cut 520
Ohio University -40
Airlines Cutting Jobs
Bowling Green State University -43
Amsted Rail Steel Foundry -363
Hayes-Lemmerz International -110
Gardner Denver Mfg. To Cut 9%
Factory Shutdowns in Mexico -20,000
Stearns Inc. -160

1-2-2009

Ipsco Steel in Ohio -100
ALP Lighting Closing Plant -20
Lenovo Expected To Cut Staff Mid Month
Cuyahoga County Ohio Cuts 18 Deputy Sheriffs
Sherrill Manufacturing Temporary Shutdown -100
Bristol-Myers Cutting 4,300 by 2010
Bluegreen Corp. in Orlando -184
AGC Flat Glass -34
Heckethorn Mfg. -100
Tampa Bay Academy -150
European Retailers Cutting Thousands
NSA Industries in VT -35
ArcelorMittal Steel in Cleveland -340
Furniture Brands International in St. Louis -1,400
Visteon -800
To Cut Costs, Firms Force Vacation Without Pay
EFTEC Adhesives Plant Closing -120
Nebraska Turkey Processing Plant to Close -225
Wood-Mode in PA -200
Snohomish County WA -160

1-1-2009

Warren OH: 11 Firemen & 20 Policemen
IC Corp. in Arkansas -300
Caraustar Industries Closing Paperboard Plant -20
Michigan Losing Technology & Auto Jobs
Magna Team Systems -140
University of TN Martin -9
Hass Automation in California -200
ServiceMaster in Memphis -225

[ozymandius]

46. Good Grief! That cuts across every industry.

Layoffs are weighted on manufacturing and manufacturing services. I am astounded at the number of civil service jobs being lost: public defenders (?!), police officers, deputy sheriffs, firefighters, etc. It's impossible to overlook that these cuts also traverse businesses ranging from staple categories to high-end luxury.

[Danascot]

98. U.S. governors seek $1 trillion federal assistance

From a couple of days ago:

Governors of five U.S. states urged the federal government to provide $1 trillion in aid to the country’s 50 states to help pay for education, welfare and infrastructure as states struggle with steep budget deficits amid a deepening recession.

The governors of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio and Wisconsin — all Democrats — said the initiative for the two-year aid package was backed by other governors and follows a meeting in December where governors called on President-elect Barack Obama to help them maintain services in the face of slumping revenues.

Gov. David Paterson of New York said 43 states now have budget deficits totaling some $100 billion as tax revenues plunge.

“It’s clear that the federal government needs to step in and jump-start the economy,” said Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts.

The latest package calls for $350 billion to create jobs by building or repairing roads, bridges and other public works; $250 billion to maintain education; and another $250 billion in “counter-cyclical” spending such as extending unemployment benefits and food stamps, which are typically a responsibility of the states.


http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5014F120090102

[DemReadingDU]

51. Thanks for posting the headlines

or maybe not.
Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. More to come as retail/restaurants go bankrupt.
:(


edit: You posted the headlines just in time. Apparently the site is not available at this time.

[Pale Blue Dot]

55. It looks like that site has already been taken down?

The link worked this morning but now it goes to a placeholder page.

[DemReadingDU]

58. Guess somebody doesn't want the masses to see the extent of the layoffs

Or maybe too many people accessing the site at the same time?

I hope it comes back.

[Hugin]

64. Must've tried it when it was updating... Seems to be there now.

Good resource.

[DemReadingDU]

75. ok

seems like a one-stop place to find all the latest layoff headlines

[ozymandius]

31. pre-open numbers are sanguine again

S&P 500 -7.60 897.60 1/8 9:06am

NASDAQ -7.25 1232.25 1/8 8:59am

Dow Jones -82.00 8662.00 1/8 8:51am

[UpInArms]

35. Companies face $409 billion pension deficit: study

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE50742S20090108

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Volatile markets have saddled U.S. companies with a $409 billion deficit on pension plans, reversing a $60 billion surplus a year earlier, and will cut into earnings in 2009, consulting firm Mercer said.

As of December 31, pension plans among members of the Standard & Poor's 1500 had $1.21 trillion of assets and $1.62 trillion of liabilities, Mercer said in a report released on Wednesday. At the end of 2007, pension plan assets totaled $1.66 trillion and liabilities totaled about $1.6 trillion, Mercer said.

The S&P 1500 is a broad portfolio representing large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap segments of the U.S. equity markets.

The shortfall suggests that more companies will have to pump cash into their pension plans to ensure they can meet their commitments to retirees.

Mercer estimated pension expenses will increase to about $70 billion this year from $10 billion in 2008, reducing overall profitability by about 8 percent.

"The decline in funded status will be capitalized and reflected in corporate balance sheets for many companies," Adrian Hartshorn, a member of Mercer's financial strategy group, said in a statement.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Walgreens to cut 1,000 jobs in corporate, field management

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Walgreens-cut-1000-jobs-corporate/story.aspx?guid=%7B9AB2CB2E%2DB47D%2D4681%2D9E66%2DDDD58A2ED050%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Walgreens (WAG: 27.03, +0.32, +1.2%) said Thursday that it plans to eliminate about 1,000 corporate and field management jobs in fiscal 2009 via both voluntary and involuntary programs. The drugstore chain said that store personnel will not be affected.

[ozymandius]

37. REPORT: Retailers report dismal December sales

NEW YORK – Retailers reported dismal sales figures for December on Thursday as even Wal-Mart Stores Inc., one of the bright spots in the industry, finally buckled under the pressures of the deteriorating economy.

As merchants reported their sales figures, confirming fears that the holiday season was the weakest in four decades, the malaise cut through practically all areas from kitchen gadget stores to jewelry purveyors and teen apparel retailers.

....

Among the many retailers that reported steep sales declines were Sears Holdings Corp., which operates Kmart and Sears stores, luxury retailer Saks Inc., Gap Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch Co. . But the biggest surprise came from Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, which posted a smaller sales gain than what Wall Street expected and cut its fourth-quarter earnings outlook.

....

Wal-Mart, blaming the weak economy and severe winter conditions, said that same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year, rose 1.2 percent. Excluding the impact of declining gasoline prices at the pump, the gain was 1.7 percent. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a 2.8 percent increase, excluding fuel.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_bi_ge/retail_sales

[UpInArms]

38. Obama to name law professor as regulatory czar: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE50733B20090108

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama will name Cass Sunstein, a Harvard Law School professor who pioneered efforts to design regulation around the ways people behave, as regulatory czar, the Wall Street Journal reported.

A report on WSJ.com said Sunstein would head the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, overseeing "regulations throughout the government, from the Environmental Protection Agency to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration."

The Journal cited an unidentified Obama transition official for the report.

"Obama aides have said the job will be crucial as the new administration overhauls financial-services regulations, attempts to pass universal health care and tries to forge a new approach to controlling emissions of greenhouse gases," according to the report posted late on Wednesday.

It said that under President George W. Bush, the office has been dominated by officials "with a strong deregulatory bent."

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

49. "...the ways people behave."

Gee, now where have I heard THAT phrase before?




Tansy Gold, worried that The Voices are back. . . . . .:evilgrin:

[antigop]

52. Where has Bernie Madoff buried his loot?

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1870050,00.html

There's a new number in the Great Madoff Rip-Off saga, and it's $850 million. That's the estimated amount of liquid assets left from Bernard Madoff's private sandbox of billions, according to Stephan Harbeck, president of the Securities Investors Protection Corp., speaking at Monday's House Financial Services Committee hearing on the $50-billion Madoff scandal.

Madoff was supposed to come clean with his list of assets last week — it certainly should add up to more than $850 million — but so far there has been nary a public peep of the list. When, during the hearing, Representative Gary Ackerman, a New York Democrat, asked David Kotz, the Securities and Exchange Commission's inspector general, what Madoff's assets were, Kotz answered meekly, "We don't have that information." Ackerman finally badgered Kotz to agree to supply the total asset list publicly within a week. We'll see. (See the top 10 scandals of 2008.)

Or maybe we won't. To anyone familiar with the world of numbered accounts, it's hard to believe that the Pirate of Third Avenue will fess up entirely to SEC investigators digging for the remaining $49.15 billion in vanished loot. Maybe the money total is as inflated and false as his victims' accounts; maybe large chunks were taken out by depositors. Either way, outside experts say it stretches credulity to think a clever sociopath and long-term bandit would not take special, even basic steps to protect his extended family from the ugly shame of poverty, particularly since this alleged bandit knew he was headed for the brig.

Sure, experts say, he'll cough up the obvious brokerage accounts, client names, and offshore and numbered accounts that dealt directly with his investment company, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC. And he'll begrudgingly concede the $7 million Park Avenue pad, the Palm Beach digs, the yachts, the French villa and the Montauk getaway. But no one believes he'll tell authorities where all the booty is stashed — not a chance, unless it saves him from walking the plank. It's the equivalent of the British government asking the infamous pirate Captain Kidd if he wouldn't mind handing over some of his treasure maps, pretty please.

[DemReadingDU]

54. Gifts of Jewelry?

1/6/09 Madoff Sons Reported Father’s Mailed Gifts of Jewelry

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The sons of Bernard Madoff, who is accused of running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme, told prosecutors last week their father violated a court-ordered asset freeze by mailing them jewelry, watches and other items, his lawyer said.

The government yesterday asked a federal judge to revoke Madoff’s bail in his criminal case because he violated the freeze. U.S. Magistrate Judge Ronald Ellis in Manhattan withheld judgment, ordering legal briefs filed by Jan. 7. Madoff remains free on $10 million bond, restricted to his Manhattan apartment.

He mailed five packages including “very valuable jewelry,” after his assets were frozen by a judge in a related suit by the Securities and Exchange Commission, Assistant U.S. Attorney Marc Litt said yesterday. Defense lawyer Ira Sorkin, who today said he and his client are cooperating with the government, countered the objects, including pens and $25 cuff links, were heirlooms innocently sent to Madoff’s children and brother, Peter.

edit: Litt said one of the jewelry items may be worth as much as $1 million.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aRLjsVfmRQ64&refer=us

[kickysnana]

73. Setting up a "diminished capacity" defense? n/t

[antigop]

53. Madoff's Victims: Finding Meaning in the Devastation

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1869043,00.html?iid=sphere-inline-sidebar

Right now, the victims of Madoff's alleged crime are in a very strange place. They still have their big homes. At least for now, the furniture is still polished, the Lexuses are quietly garaged, and the people still stand — except for poor M. Villehuchet, who last week in New York slit his wrists. But underneath these material reminders of a former life there is nothing — or very little.

The financial piers supporting lifetimes of accumulated wealth have simply vanished. This week, people everywhere are preparing to celebrate the New Year, while Madoff's victims are looking over their bank statements and credit card bills, asking themselves one question: How long can we hang on? (See the 10 worst business deals of 2008.)

As one of the taken, I get calls daily from those who have lost their financial lifeline due to this mess. This wasn't a slow-fade-to-ruin crime, but a flip-the-switch-to-poverty crime, and many are now in an adrenal-driven shock stage of having no money — at all — in the bank. The ruin is especially tragic among retirees hit by this pre-holiday bomb.

But the stories of Madoff's victims also signal a new resetting of personal expectations, a dramatic and inspirational recasting of the American Dream. "Right now, the people going through this tragedy are in the process of reordering their lives, re-evaluating their place on earth, and trying to find a larger meaning," says a New Paltz, N.Y., psychologist indirectly hit by Madoff. Let's call him Dr. K. His parents, who live in Boca Raton, Fla., had their retirement millions wiped out. "My parents are now grateful for the things they do have," he says. (See the top 10 scandals of 2008.)

My comments: I have to wonder how many of these people supported a philosophy of less regulation and "smaller government". I do not take pleasure in their misfortune, but I hope that after all of this
devastation, they understand the importance of government regulation and enforcement--not just in the financial markets. I also have to wonder why some of them turned over all of their retirement money to one guy.

[specimenfred1984]

68. I do take pleasure in their misfortune

They and their types called me a traitor, told me I wasn't a real American, told me to shut up 1000 times every day, told me there was no torture, told me my city was under a "terror" alert 100s of times, told me I needed to be spied on and arrested for protesting, etc...etc...etc...

I am a human being, I feel hatred, revenge and retribution just as easily as I feel love, compassion and selflessness. Those mutha fuckers have been asking for it for years and are now finally getting what's coming to their criminal asses.

[Warpy]

71. Yes and no

While a lot of smug jackasses who knew they wouldn't be getting those returns unless Madoff was up to something got theirs, don't forget that Madoff was plugged into the limousine liberal circuit, not the GOP fat cat circuit.

The collapse of his company hurt foundations, pensions, and even governments.

Madoff, by all accounts, could charm the birdies out of the trees. He inspired such confidence that people who really should have known better put their entire fortunes into his hands.

I always feel sorry for good people who get taken. I've been one of them often enough, although not to this extent.

The jackasses, not so much.

[specimenfred1984]

74. I talk to a lot of "limosine liberals", they're not different from repukes at all

They think they're superior, think they know it all, think they've figured a way to game the system, don't give a shit about investing in companies that torture, rape, loot and pollute: they are disaster capitalists just like repukes. The charities are a tax write off and/or a conscience soother, meanwhile they're invested in hedge funds, Halliburton, oil, offshore tax shelters, etc...

[Demeter]

99. Because They Knew He Was Cheating, and They Wanted to Profit

They knew his results were not possible by any legal, paper-trail means. So they wanted in on the action. And they told their gullible friends, who didn't even know that. The rest is history.

[Pale Blue Dot]

57. Markets are lukewarm, trending down during Obama's speech.

It's my lunch break, so I've been watching the markets. It doesn't look like they're reacting favorably to what he's saying.

[antigop]

66. WSJ Breaking News: Madoff had $174 million in signed checks in his office at time of arrest

From the WSJ breaking news banner (full story not yet available):

"Prosecutors say that Bernard Madoff had $173 million in signed checks in his office desk at the time of his arrest. The checks were allegedly made out to his friends and employees."

[burf]

69. Bernie need to

be moved out of the penthouse and into the jail house.

[UpInArms]

72. A new one: SEC accuses man of $50 million Ponzi scheme

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0853577220090108

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Securities and futures regulators charged a Philadelphia-area fund manager with operating a $50 million Ponzi scheme, where he paid off earlier investors with money from later investors, officials said on Thursday.

The Securities and Exchange Commission, which has been criticized for not uncovering Wall Street financier Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion fraud, said it obtained an emergency court order freezing Joseph Forte's assets.

The SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission allege that Forte told investors that he would invest funds in an account that would trade in securities and futures contracts, including S&P 500 stock index futures and metals futures.

Forte reported consistent returns to his investors even though he consistently lost money, withdrew millions of dollars in fees for personal use and used investor funds to repay other investors, the regulators said.

According to the government complaints, Forte conducted the Ponzi scheme since at least 1995 and he solicited about $50 million from dozens of individuals and entities to participate in a commodity futures pool.

The SEC complaint said that in late December 2008, Forte admitted to federal authorities that he had been conducting the Ponzi scheme and that he did not have the funds to repay investors.

...more...

cows out - door closed - mission accomplished

[antigop]

81. AIG yanks $93 million in quickie payouts after Dems squawk

"quickie payouts"? What kind of headline is that?

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090108/REG/901089987/1036

American International Group deferred $93.3 million in questionable payouts to senior executives and former employees and agents following the intercession of two Democratic lawmakers.

The lawmakers, Reps. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) and Joseph Crowley (D-NY), criticized the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve for approving the payments. The insurer is due to receive $150 billion under the federal bailout.

The employee payouts were to be made by April 1 after deferred compensation plans were terminated by the insurer, AIG said in a statement yesterday.

Instead, only current employees and agents will now get the money in the next few months, while the others will have to wait until after they retire or leave the company, the statement said.

AIG had said in November that accelerating the deferred work payments would help retain key employees. But the congressional inquiries yielded information showing that $90 million would go to former employees and agents, the two lawmakers’ said in a statement. These payments would have no impact on keeping key personnel.

[wordpix]

111. considering these bailouts are UNCONSTITUTIONAL, every payment to every entity should be scrutinized

In Sept. 2008 the Hightower Lowdown wrote on the Fannie and Freddie bailout: "First, the new law empowers the secretary to dole out unlimited billions in federal dollars directly to Fannie and Freddie. Second, the secretary is given authority to use the credit of the US to raise money to loan to these two mortgage giants---yet the Constitution says that only Congress can borrow on our national credit. The Constitution explicitly says that only Congress can appropriate public monies...."

Apparently, Congress caved to the WH against the Constitution, not just regarding the Fannie and Freddie bailout but all the bailouts, including the $700 billion to banks. Any Constitutional scholars and attorneys out there who might shed some light on how we might get control of ---or get back---the hundreds of billions already handed over to the banks, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, etc.?

It is infuriating that our Dem "leaders" caved to the bushies once again to break the bank and put US in trillions of dollars in debt for generations to come.

[DemReadingDU]

83. CNBC: Union Pensions exposed to Madoff

1/8/09 Madoff Exposure Spreads to Labor Union Pension Funds
by CNBC Charlie Gasparino

The financial carnage coming out of the Bernard Madoff investment scandal is now spreading from charities and wealthy individuals to labor union pension funds. In recent days, several have fessed up to their members their significant exposure to Madoff's investment scheme, which will result in massive losses to their members.

CNBC has learned that one union, the Carpenters local in Syracuse, N.Y., has lost the majority of the $100 million to $150 million it had in pension money because of its dealings with Madoff, people close to the matter said. The union's money manager, J.P. Jeanneret Associates of Syracuse, didn't return a telephone call for comment.

The Syracuse carpenters local isn't alone. Pat Morin, business manager of Empire State Carpenters Union, is sifting through the wreckage in his own portfolio, which at the end of June had around $800 million in assets under management. Morin says his fund has exposure to Madoff as well, largely the result of consolidation in union pension funds where locals like Syracuse had transferred money to his oversight.

more...
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/business/Madoff_Exposure_Spreads_to_Labor_Union_Pension_Funds.html


now for 2 CNBC videos

1/8/09 Union Pensions Exposed to Madoff
More exposure of union pension funds are coming to the forefront, with CNBC's Charlie Gasparino and Neil Weinberg, Forbes senior editor
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=989658917 appx 8.5 minutes

1/8/09 Pensions Exposed to Madoff
Insight on how Madoff was able to con so many people, with Neil Weinberg, Forbes senior editor and CNBC's Dennis Kneale.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=989668302 appx 3 minutes

[UpInArms]

89. isn't it amazing that it seems to be everyone will wake up and have

pockets as empty as my own?

No insurance, no pension, no 401k

will they all kill themselves to have to live like Prag or me?

[Dr.Phool]

92. In other words, "Thank god it passed"!

[specimenfred1984]

95. What the hell were pensions "investing" in that kind of crap for?

I know the answer is "deregulation" but it's pure greed that drives an investment manager into hedge funds with others' pensions. To follow up on an earlier post, I do feel sorry for the pension holders who knew absolutely nothing about it and could do absolutely nothing about it. The people responsible should be jailed however, for gross negligence and 50 other crimes.

[ozymandius]

90. mixed end to the day

Dow 8,742.46 Down 27.24 (0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,617.01 Up 17.95 (1.12%)
S&P 500 909.73 Up 3.08 (0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 2.445% Down 0.049
NYSE Volume 5,075,263,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,004,147,875

4:20 pm : Disappointing news from retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 51.36, -4.18) helped invoke cautious trading ahead of tomorrow's unemployment report. Still, stocks managed to finish at session highs with modest gains.

Wal-Mart shaved more than a dime from its fourth quarter earnings outlook, which now ranges from $0.91 to $0.94 per share. Wall Street was expecting $1.06 per share for the quarter.

The company also disappointed investors by announcing December same-store sales increased by a less-than-expected 1.7%.

Many other retailers posted same-store sales results that ranged from disappointing to dismal. Several lowered their earnings forecasts as well.

Retailers were able to shake the weakness, though. They finished 0.8% higher.

Cautious trading led to choppy action in the broader market.

With December nonfarm payroll data due tomorrow morning, fewer investors were willing to buy on weakness stemming from such announcements as Wal-Mart's, or that of Intel in the prior session. Adding to the apprehension is a soon-to-begin earnings season that is full of uncertainty.

Economists expect December nonfarm payrolls to show a decline of 545,000 jobs. If a worse-than-expected figure emerges and investors can shake it off, that suggests an underlying bullish bias in the stock market. A sell-off will suggest caution.

The significance of the report led many to look past the latest weekly jobless claims report. Initial claims for the ended Jan. 3 totaled 467,000, down 24,000 from the prior week. Many viewed the report with skepticism given strong seasonal factors at play.

Eight of the 10 economic sectors finished higher.

Consumer staples stocks (-1.3%) and financials (-0.2%) were the only two sectors to finish lower. Large-cap tech stocks, however, helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts.DJ30 -27.24 NASDAQ +17.95 NQ100 +1.1% R2K +1.0% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +3.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1047/1666/2.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1177/1911/1.20 bln

[UpInArms]

96. Can't Resist the Crosspost: Cheney says no one saw financial crisis coming

hattip to DogPoundPup

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3680487&mesg_id=3680487

http://www.newspress.com/Top/Article/article.jsp?Section=BUSINESS&ID=565505600965184068

WASHINGTON (AP) - Vice President Dick Cheney says that his boss, President George W. Bush, has no need to apologize to the American people for not doing more to head off the financial calamity, saying no one saw the crisis coming.

During an interview Thursday with The Associated Press in his West Wing office, Cheney defended the administration's performance on an economy that is growing weaker daily and which recently collapsed in spectacular fashion. Cheney said that ''nobody anywhere was smart enough to figure it out.''

He said Bush doesn't need to apologize because he has taken ''bold, aggressive action.''

Note: article ends with that.

[CatholicEdHead]

100. Actually, that would be 'Mission Accomplished' for Cheney

Their 2000 and 2004 Donors deregulation plan through the 00's has gone according to plan. :puke: