Cdn politics: "Scandal Rocks Grits Support" (Liberals drop 9%)

[Minstrel Boy]

New poll from Ipsos Reid released last night, taken Feb 10-12, after the sponsorship scandal broke. A shocking drop for the Liberals. NDP up, but the Conservatives have gained the most:

39% Liberal (down 9 from 48)
24% Conservatives (up 5 from 19)
18% NDP (up 2 from 16)
10% BQ (unchanged)
05% Green (up 1 from 4)


"The Liberals have suffered most in British Columbia (27%, down 15 points from 42%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%, down 13 points from 46%). Ontario has also seen a substantial drop in Liberal support (47%, down 10 points from 57%), as has Alberta (28%, down 7 points from 35%) and Quebec (40%, down 5 points from 45%). But voter support is more stable in and Atlantic Canada (42%, down 1 point from 43%).
The report has had a potent effect among rural voters, as Liberal support in rural regions has dropped sharply (28%, down 17 points from 45%). Conversely, the Conservatives have gained support among rural voters (36%, up 11 points from 25%).

"Conservative support has risen most in British Columbia (35%, up 15 points from 20%), trailed by Ontario (25%, up 7 points from 18%), Alberta (50%, up 3 points from 47%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (23%, up 3 points from 20%), and Quebec (5%, up 2 points from 3%). Conservative support has actually dropped in Atlantic Canada (33%, down 4 points from 37%).

"The NDP has gained most in Saskatchewan (33%, up 9 points from 24%), followed by Ontario (22%, up 5 points from 17%), Alberta (16%, up 3 points from 13%), Quebec (8%, up 2 points from 6%), and Atlantic Canada (19%, up 2 points from 17%). NDP support has actually gone down in British Columbia (22%, down 5 points from 27%)."

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2052

Detailed tables:
http://www.ipsos-reid.com/pdf/media/mr040213-3tb.pdf

[0rganism]

1. Can you interpret a little for those of us who aren't Canadian?

Is the Liberal party really conservative?

Are the Conservatives really moderates?

How does it work up there?

[Minstrel Boy]

2. It's hard transposing the US spectrum,

but I'll give it a shot.

Liberals:
Typically, up here, centrist and centre-left, but under new PM they're moving to the centre-right. Still, in the States, most Liberals and their policies would be to the left of the Democratic middle.

Conservatives:
A new party, combining the neo-con fundies in the Canadian Alliance and the old centrist and centre-right Progressive Conservatives. Still leaderless, but seems destined to be taken over by the hard right neo cons. They'd be the same in the States.

NDP:
Socialist. No real equivalent in the US. (Greens won't do; we have them too.) on edit: however, the NDP is also small-G "green", with smart environmentalist policy. Leader Jack Layton has won over senior Green Party officials, including the former Green leader, with his green credentials.

BQ:
Bloq Quebecois. Pro-Separatist, and on the left. Naturally, only fields candidates in Quebec.

This is my team:

[Minstrel Boy]

3. The thing about Ipsos Reid is, unlike other pollsters,

they offer the Green Party as an option. This causes an inflation of their numbers especially in BC, and at the expense of the NDP, which will not be reflected in the election, because the Greens cannot wage a viable national campaign.

And here's how this poll compares to the last election:
2000 vote / 2004 poll
Lib. 42 / 39
CA/PC 38 / 24
NDP 8 / 18
BQ 9 / 10

Liberals down three, the combined conservative vote has dropped 14 points, and the NDP is up 10.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

8. This is the first poll to be above what I was hoping for in the election.

I would have been satisfied with doubling the NDP vote, and tripling the seats, now we're getting beyond that. Add another couple of points for when (if) Shiela Copps defects and we're at or over the magic number, 20%. Anything after that is the big unknown. Still, who knows, these numbers are clearly fluid. If Martin can pin the blame squarely on Chretien, he will recover some of that support.
However, I believe this scandal to be Jean Chretien's poisoned chalice to his nemesis. I expect Chretien to land some serious punches on Paul Martin if he's called to testify. Then the question is, can PM fight? Jean Chretien sure as hell can.
It's just a shame we have to be in the middle of this bitter grudgewar.

[Minstrel Boy]

18. I really like our slow, steady growth.

It feels solid. A big spike right now would be, I suspect, soft. I can be patient for the big spike. Like, say, election day. ;)

[Screaming Lord Byron]

19. 16% in Alberta? That's really something.

That means two seats in Edmonton (East and Strathcona) That means at least 10% in Calgary (considerably more than we've managed for a long time).

[Minstrel Boy]

20. Yeah, almost up to the national average in Alberta.

Hopefully the support is concentrated enough in Edmonton to take a seat or two.

And Quebec support is as high now as our national popular vote was in 2000. (It was less than one per cent in Quebec then. Yeesh.)

And there was another poll, this one by CROP for Le Presse, of only Quebec voters. It's wild: BQ at 47%, Liberals at 34%. (That leaves 19% unaccounted for.) http://www.cyberpresse.ca/politique/article/1,153,1924,022004,584430.shtml

[Screaming Lord Byron]

21. NDP support in Alberta is weak in rural areas, less weak in Calgary

but not strong, and seriously concentrated in Edmonton. There's a good chance of results in Edmonton East and Edmonton Strathcona, where we managed 17% in 2000.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

22. As a benchmark, the NDP scored 5.5% in Alberta in 2000

We have tripled our support. This must be significant. I will investigate further.

[Product of Evolution]

12. I really can't blame BC...

Their provincial NDP party doesn't exactly have a clean nose.

If they fucking run against Robinson though, I'm going to make sure they no longer exist.

[Minstrel Boy]

4. Another poll today in the National Post:

The survey found that support for the Liberals was at 43.5% among those contacted for the poll, down from 49% in another COMPAS poll earlier this month.

"The Liberals are definitely falling and falling quite dramatically," Mr. Winn said.

The Conservatives rose to 26.4%, up from 19% two weeks ago, while the New Democratic Party edged up slightly to 18.7%, compared with 17% in the earlier poll.
http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=47bb03b2-bc14-4b60-951f-db2752acaf12

[MrPrax]

5. Dang...

I was hoping the NDP would get a bigger 'push' from the scandal...down in BC (inspite of the TWO liberal scandals)...

I hope they can refine their message...

Although it might reflect the fact that Layton isn't in the House and as such isn't get the QP soundbytes...

[Screaming Lord Byron]

7. It's a money scandal at heart, they always favour the Tories.

Still, we did get some voters.

[Product of Evolution]

9. Surprise, surprise...

The Conservatives will run on anti-corruption like the Liberals did in '93 and be at least as corrupt when they get elected. It's the same damn thing every time.

*is voting NDP*

[Minstrel Boy]

13. I think the BC drop is explained by the Ipsos Reid quirk

of including the Green Party. This poll gives them 11% in BC. I think that's improbably high for election day - the Green campaign will be invisible, they have no budget, and Layton's environmental credentials are beyond reproach (enough to convince the former Green leader to join the NDP). I expect about half will actually vote NDP.

The Ontario number of 22% is very encouraging. Getting close to triple the 2000 support.

[Product of Evolution]

15. Interesting...

I know a lot of leftist BCers are disenchanted by the provincial New Democrats (explaining spectacular Green results in the Liberal massacre of 2001) due to corruption issues.

So it seems Layton and their senior leaders will bring them home. :-)

[Minstrel Boy]

16. The BC NDP has really rebounded under its new leader

Thanks, in large part I'm sure, to Gordon Campbell's "Liberal" government being so heinous.

Recent provincial poll:

Gap Narrows between BC Liberals and NDP

The most recent Mustel Group (formerly McIntyre & Mustel Research) poll indicates a gap of only five percentage points between the BC Liberal party and the NDP. The poll shows that voter support for the NDP has increased from 28% in August 2003 to a current level of 37%, while support for the BC Liberal party has decreased marginally from 47% to 42% among decided voters.

The parties are essentially tied in the Greater Vancouver area with the recent poll showing 39% support for the BC Liberals and 38% for the NDP. But among females, the NDP have a clear lead (46% support for NDP, 30% for BC Liberals). Males, on the other hand, show stronger support for the BC Liberals (53% support for BC Liberals versus 29% for NDP).
http://www.mustelgroup.com/010504.htm

[Product of Evolution]

17. Interesting...

Hopefully we can do the party proud. At least the NDP can recover, which is more than I can say for a certain fascist party that controlled BC for years.

[Product of Evolution]

25. Oops...

That's "he", not "we".

[mouse7]

6. Did Scandal get back together?

I always liked Patty Smyth's voice. I'm surprised the band has so much effect on Canadian politics, though.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

10. The Ontario figures are crucial. 22% to us represents fifteen to twenty

ridings. I think the new NDP wave will originate in the Golden Horseshoe, plus Northern Ontario, Ottawa and Windsor.

[Product of Evolution]

11. Why isn't the NDP stronger in Northern Ontario?

They do quite well there provincially.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

14. Actually we are, just not enough to win seats

Bob Nault just announced he's retiring. That gives us a good shot at Kenora (Libs-45%, CPC-28.61%, NDP-22%). We're at around 20% in both Thunder Bay seats, Timmins looks good for us (Libs-54%, NDP-31%), we're at 25% in Sault Ste. Marie, 21% in the Nickel Belt. Bear in mind we're now polling at more than twice our 2000 results, and all these seats become possible wins.

[Minstrel Boy]

23. And about Sault Ste. Marie:

Good news - former Ontario NDP MPP Tony Martin, the Soo's longest serving MPP, has announced he'll seek the federal nomination in the riding. Just what's needed everywhere: strong local candidates.

http://sootoday.com/content/news/full_story.asp?StoryNumber=6086

[Screaming Lord Byron]

24. He may well win. I'll run some figures based on these polls.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

26. Just ran the figures, 18% for the NDP in a GE comes out to around 42 seats

As reference, in 1988 we got 43 seats with 20% of the vote.

[Minstrel Boy]

27. I wonder what our ceiling will be.

Nationally, 20% has been it. Layton's almost there before the election call, as was his intention. How much more can we build? We may be entering uncharted waters soon.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

28. There was a pollster, I forget his name, who tried to work it out in 2001

He had a chapter in the 'What's Left' book. The figure he came up with was 24%. I can't say past 20%. It could be 20%, it could be 40%, it's the great unknown.