STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 21

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 21, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 60
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2584 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2875
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 20, 2008

Dow... 7,552.29 -444.99 (-5.89%)
Nasdaq... 1,316.12 -70.30 (-5.07%)
S&P 500... 752.44 -54.14 (-6.71%)
Gold future... 748.70 +12.70 (+1.70%)
30-Year Bond 3.70% -0.27 (-6.87%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.14% -0.25 (-7.28%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Any Heroes Out There?
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

Point-and-Figure (PAF) charts probably produce the most boring commentary for non-familiar readers to digest. Even though they are not as exciting as momentum charts which can tell you almost anything you want to hear, the advantage of point-and-figure analyses is that it is the most objective type of technical analysis. One would be well served to consider that more often than not, intermediate term investments that go against the PAF analysis lose money. These charts send out “buy” or “sell” signals and there is no room for subjectivity. Although they are objective, as with any other technical analysis method, they can be late or produce whipsaws. It is at times such as this when PAF charts are the most useful because they are clear, objective, and unemotional. (While today’s markets are totally emotional.) The PAF charts of the markets are stating clearly that now is not a good time to be a hero trying to pick a market bottom. They are telling us that it is too early to buy the major indices.

.....

Today’s Market

Golly, what I wrote at 1 O’clock came to pass by the close as the markets tumbled in late session action. The S&P 500 hit an 11 year low at the close today. Of most import in today’s action is the bullish breakout in the bond market. It is shown in the chart below in terms of the long bond ETF (symbol TLT). A clear break of the ETF into new highs (long rates at new lows).

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

-many PAF charts-

[Hissyspit]

2. Doesn't that say a lot...

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE ON JAN. 22, 2001:

10,578.24

AT CLOSING NOV. 20, 2008:

7,552.29

[ozymandius]

4. It says a few things to me.

Starting with, "Worst President Ever."

[tclambert]

140. I used to think that implied "Worst American President Ever"

but maybe now you can include foreign presidents such as Idi Amin. Maybe not. That's going awfully far. Still, Bush has at least one chance to outrage us all: his 11th hour pardons.

[Ghost Dog]

8. BTW: NOV 20: 33 years since death of (Spain's) Franco.

Nobody forgets.

[ozymandius]

10. An old friend of mine grew up in Spain.

He wrote poetry in Catalan (sp?) when the language was outlawed. He told me that on the day Franco died people danced in the streets.

[Ghost Dog]

15. Yeah.

They sold out of cava that day (Catalan 'champagne'), I was told, when I first hit that ground running 24 years ago (Barcelona)...

[Tansy_Gold]

38. I was listening to David Shuster last night on Countdown

When he began talking about the anniversary of Franco's death, I said something to the effect, "And he's STILL dead" and chuckled.

BF looked at me with a "what the hell are you talking about and why is it even remotely amusing?" look.

"Obviously you don't get it and it would be far too difficult to explain. But trust me, Franco's still dead."

Of course, Shuster's last line was "And he's still dead!" At that point I damned near dropped the dinner salads on the floor. Laughed right out loud.


Much more important, however, is that SNL is still alive. ;-)



Tansy Gold

(edited to add, for no particular reason other than it came up on a google search, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x2914985

[Hugin]

41. Still?

Well, I'll be darned.

:rofl:

[MilesColtrane]

61. I'll now repeat Tansy Gold's post,...

...aided by the Headmaster of the New York School for the Hard of Hearing.

[AnneD]

88. I'm waiting......

for the new President of Russia to 'catch a cold' and Putin take over.

Boy can Putin stage photo ops or what. I hate to say this, Russians suffer with a lot more panache than we do. We are shrill and just whine. They make wickedly sarcastic jokes about their leaders and had free press anyway (you just had to read between the lines).

We handled these last 8 years very badly-no style and little grace. We did have humour though.

[Demeter]

106. The Democrats Had Humor

The GOP is humor-impaired. It's like tone deafness. Probably genetic. Or due to listening to RW radio and TV with the sound too high.

[AnneD]

111. Thanks for the scalpel......

one can't be too precise....The Dem's had humour. Keith O, Jon Stewart, and Stephan Colbert were great....Triumph had me laughing too.

[Tansy_Gold]

112. "had"? Don't we still have any?

Precisely,

Tansy :rofl: Gold

[Demeter]

149. Obama Is As Serious as a Heart Attack

His style, his substance, the jesters can't get a hold or a line on him. And they are desperate to keep Sarah Palin alive, so that they have some material.

After all, a Depression is nothing to laugh about.

[tclambert]

141. Ah, yes, that takes me back.

Chevy Chase on SNL: "This just in. Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still valiantly holding on in his fight to remain dead."

[Ghost Dog]

145. Good one. Just got a (bitter) belly-laugh out of me. Thanks. n/t

[DemReadingDU]

24. lowest Dow during Bush's presidency

10/9/02 7,286.27 lowest


and we are almost there

[MattSh]

26. Dow Jones 50% off Sale. Coming soon.

On October 9th 2007, the Dow Jones closed at 14,164.53. When it reaches 7082, it's 50% off it's all time high.

Multiple lowpoints looming on the horizon.

[Hugin]

33. Today, you think?

I'll have to see what news is happening this morning.

[ozymandius]

3. no goobermental reports today

Maybe that's a good thing?

[UpInArms]

74. US yearly economic growth rate at record low -ECRI (number not seen since 1949)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00459220081121

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its lowest in 13 years and its annualized rate showed U.S. economic growth is sliding at its fastest recorded pace, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said the annualized growth rate of its Weekly Leading Index slid in the week ending Nov. 14 from a revised negative 27.1 percent to minus 28.2 percent, a new low according to ECRI data recorded since January 1949.

"With WLI growth nose-diving to yet another historical low, the outlook for the economy is worsening at the fastest pace on record," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

...more...

[tclambert]

142. So the simple solution to stock market recovery

is to stop issuing government reports. Then again, according to the founder of Faber College, "Knowledge is Good."

[Ghost Dog]

5. Central bankers wary of deflation

Fri Nov 21, 2008 5:05am EST
By Mike Peacock

LONDON (Reuters) - Euro zone demand is plunging and price pressures vanishing, business surveys showed on Friday, while central bankers weighed the prospect of deflation.

The Bank of Japan left its key interest rate at just 0.3 percent and said there would be a long road to recovery.

But the United States, Britain and Europe are expected to ease their rates further next month as the worst financial crisis in 80 years hastens recession across much of the globe.

St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said with interest rates low, the U.S. central bank may have to rely on "quantitative easing" to ward off deflation, recalling large BoJ liquidity injections during the 1990s to jump start the economy by flooding it with cash once rates reached zero.

"By announcing and maintaining targets for key monetary quantities, the Fed may be able to ... ward off either a drift toward deflation or excessively high inflation," he said.

The Fed is expected to cut rates to 0.5 percent next month.

Japan's decade-long battle with steadily falling prices and economic stagnation looms large in officials' memories.

Reversing recession is doubly difficult if prices fall broadly and constantly as there is no incentive to spend now because consumers and firms know things can only get cheaper.

With banks already reluctant to lend -- after a U.S. housing market collapse caused many to sustain huge losses and some to fail -- deflation would represent a perfect economic storm.

...

Central banks, faced with a sudden collapse in growth as well as inflation, have slashed rates and are expected to keep doing so, although economists warn they may run out of rope before prices hit rock-bottom.

...

How quickly the world changes.

...

Nonetheless, stock markets rebounded from five-year lows as a variety of rumors, such as China preparing to cut rates, prompted investors to cover short positions before the weekend.

Japan's Nikkei average added nearly 3 percent and European shares were up 1.4 percent in early trade.

/... http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3612347

[ozymandius]

6. Oil rises from 3-year low as stocks rebound

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose off a 3-year low, creeping above $50 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors took a cue from a rebound in regional stock markets.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was up 80 cents to $50.22 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore, after falling to $48.25 earlier in the session, the lowest level since May 18, 2005.

The December contract, which expired Thursday, fell overnight by $4.00 to settle at $49.62.

....

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of global supply, may cut production before its next official meeting on Dec. 17, Rigby said. OPEC President Chakib Khelil has signaled the group may announce output reductions at the meeting, but some members, such as Iran, have called for earlier cuts.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.89 cent to $1.03 a gallon. Heating oil gained 1.91 cents to $1.69 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery slid 5.9 cents to $6.26 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

16. Gas prices sink below $2

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- For the first time in more than three-and-a-half years, the average price of gasoline fell below $2 a gallon, according to a national survey released Friday.

The nationwide average price dropped to $1.989 a gallon, down from $2.02 on Thursday, according to motorist group AAA, which bases its information on credit card swipes from up to 100,000 service stations.

This is the first time that gas has dipped below $2 a gallon since March 9, 2005, when the nationwide average was $1.9932, according to Ben Brockwell, director of data and pricing services for Oil Price Information Services.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/21/news/economy/two_dollar_gas/?postversion=2008112104

[Tansy_Gold]

27. I paid $1.89 yesterday.

Groceries haven't come down any, though. Especially produce.


I hope at least some of this translates into lower heating oil prices up north. Here in the Phoenix area we're heading into our low electric bill season and it couldn't be more welcome, but I know the grim season is just starting up north.

Hugs and warm blankies to you all! Been there, done that.



Tansy Gold

[AnneD]

107. I remember on the economy thread last year.....

I predicted that gas prices would go lower. As summer progressed-I kept saying to myself 'What was I thinking' (actually I was remembering what happened in Houston after the Embargo). Now, I'm looking like a frigging genius:eyes: But this does not bode well for all of us.

Anne D, pouring her morning milk over her ground glass...munch munch yummm

[Wednesdays]

101. Is it just me, or does it seem every morning the headline is "oil rises"

Yet I look at the graph and see it's at about its lowest price since 2005, and steadily downward. :shrug:

[ozymandius]

7. Asia, Europe stocks rebound after Wall Street rout

BANGKOK, Thailand – Most Asian and European markets rebounded Friday after sharp declines in recent days as investors scooped up battered financial and technology shares.

Major Asian benchmarks opened lower after Wall Street tumbled to multiyear lows overnight but climbed into positive territory in afternoon trading. Oil prices, which had fallen below $49 a barrel to three-year lows in early trading, also bounced back.

....

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 207.75, or 2.7 percent, to 7,910.79, helped in part by a weaker yen, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index jumped 360.64 points, or 2.9 percent, to 12,763.81.

South Korea's Kospi surged 5.8 percent and Australia's market closed up 1.9 percent after initially falling more than 3 percent. But mainland China's Shanghai Composite index slipped 0.7 percent and markets in the Philippines and Indonesia also sank.

In early European trading, London's FTSE-100 index was up 0.6 percent , France's CAC-40 rose 0.7 percent and Germany's DAX gained 0.5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081121/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

9. Congress rushes to extend jobless benefits

WASHINGTON – Jarred by new jobless alarms, Congress raced to approve legislation Thursday to keep unemployment checks flowing through the December holidays and into the new year for a million or more laid-off Americans whose benefits are running out.

The Senate's vote followed Thursday's report that laid-off workers' new claims for jobless aid had reached a 16-year high and the number of Americans searching for work had surged past 10 million.

The White House, which had opposed broader legislation containing the benefits extension, urged passage of the new version and said President George W. Bush would quickly sign it.

....

As for the jobless benefits, about 1.2 million people would exhaust their unemployment insurance by the end of the year without the extension, sponsors said. The measure is estimated to cost about $5.7 billion, although economists put the positive impact at $1.64 for every dollar spent on jobless benefits because the money helps sustain other jobs and restores consumer confidence.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081120/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

[Hugin]

36. This activity got wide exposure on the news yesterday.

Okay, the bandage is in place. Now how about they Extend some Employment and Employment Benefits. People
like to work.

Edit: A more positive sentiment.

[ozymandius]

11. JPMorgan cuts investment banking jobs: sources

NEW YORK (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is cutting 10 percent of its investment banking staff -- about 3,000 jobs -- as the economic slowdown starts to bite into its earnings, people familiar with the situation said on Thursday.

JPMorgan shares slid as much as 18 percent as one analyst said the cuts could reflect greater-than-expected weakness at the bank, long seen as one of the industry's few stalwarts through the credit crisis.

....

The company will likely cut staff in line with competitors such as Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N), which is cutting 10 percent, the sources said.

On Thursday, JPMorgan let go at least six equity sales officials from its New York desk, according to one person familiar with the matter.

The bank declined comment. Its shares were down 12 percent at $25.01 in afternoon trade on the New York Stock Exchange after falling as low as $23.21 earlier in the session.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081120/bs_nm/us_jpmorgan

[Festivito]

12. Debt: 11/19/2008 10,652,323,523,227.90 (DOWN 8,094,331,244.30) (Down little.)

(Public debt down very little. Mostly the FICA side of debt changed.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,394,116,589,427.96 + 4,258,206,933,800.02
DOWN 433,628,717.22 + DOWN 7,660,702,527.09
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 13,831,174,966.34.
The average for the last 30 days would be 10,603,900,807.53.
The average for the last 33 days would be 9,639,909,825.02.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 34 reports in 50 days of FY2009 averaging 18.46B$ per report, 12.55B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 62 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/19/2008 10,652,323,523,227.90 GWB (UP 4,924,127,727,046.33 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 627,598,626,315.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 --- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 ----
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 ---
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 --- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---

144,944,174,226.15 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $987,691,719,968.83 in last 62 days.
That's 988B$ in 62 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 97% of that highest year ever only in 62 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 62 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3610519&mesg_id=3610536

[Festivito]

126. Debt: 11/20/2008 10,655,457,229,922.30 (UP 3,133,706,694.40) (Little, mostly FICA.)

(Public debt down little. FICA side of debt changed. Same as day before.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,393,926,893,617.82 + 4,261,530,336,304.52
DOWN 189,695,810.14 + UP 3,323,402,504.50
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,285,547,190.01.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,352,252,845.67.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,147,341,463.55.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 35 reports in 51 days of FY2009 averaging 18.02B$ per report, 12.37B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 61 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/20/2008 10,655,457,229,922.30 GWB (UP 4,927,261,433,740.73 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 630,732,333,009.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 --- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 ----
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 ---
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 --- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---
11/20/2008 -000,189,695,810.14 ---

144,687,702,697.54 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $990,825,426,663.23 in last 63 days.
That's 991B$ in 63 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 97% of that highest year ever only in 63 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 63 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3612356&mesg_id=3612383

[Festivito]

157. Ignore this post.

Keeping place in case of info loss.

[ozymandius]

13. U.S. stock futures leap after Citigroup sale report

LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures surged on Friday after a report Citigroup may put itself on the block and following upbeat results out of Dell and Salesforce.com

S&P 500 futures leaped 31.7 points to 780.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 39.25 points to 1,079.70. Dow industrial futures leapt 293 points.

....

Citi's shares jumped 21% in pre-open trade on Friday, however, as The Wall Street Journal reported the bank is holding a board meeting to discuss whether to sell all or part of itself.

....

There aren't any major economic releases scheduled, though there will be a number of Federal Reserve speeches during the day.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-stock-futures-leap-after/story.aspx?guid={C68B56CF-CF6F-4362-B718-ADF57AA527FC}

[Hugin]

40. Hmm... Too big to fail, but, not too big to sell?

This would be a good place for an Air Freshener, don't you think?

[Spouting Horn]

68. If a company is

"too big to fail" then it's too big, period.

We need to break up these huge banks, investment houses and insurance co's.

NO MORE CORPORATE WELFARE!

[Hugin]

70. I hear you on that.

In the words of Chauncey Gardner, "The tree needs to be pruned."

[tclambert]

144. The theory of the car companies is (or was)

that cars are pretty complicated, and you get terrific economies of scale if you make a lot of them, and even more economies if multiple divisions can produce variations on a basic model. Chevy is the basic model. Pontiac makes a the sportier version. Buick makes a little more luxurious version. Cadillac makes the Cadillac of cars. Never was sure how Oldsmobile fit into that scheme.

The real advantage of car company size is in the search for the next big hit. A giant company can make a dozen new models a year searching for that next big success. A little company can only try out three. The big company clearly has an advantage. Start-ups that try to make just one car have very little chance.

Well, another advantage is institutional knowledge. GM knows a lot already about brakes and transmissions and steering and suspension and interiors. A start-up almost has to re-invent everything.

A visionary leader with obsessive-compulsive disorder, like Howard Hughes, can make up for that, sometimes.

[Tansy_Gold]

113. Well, wouldn't the logic be. . . . .

If some thing is too big for . . . . whatever. . . .. why not make it smaller?



Frequently accused of being too big for her britches and probably ought to be made smaller,



Tansy Gold

[Roland99]

52. It's well off those highs but still way up.

Europe is mostly in the red now, too.

[ozymandius]

14. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac suspend some foreclosures

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. home loan finance companies, on Thursday said they would suspend foreclosures of occupied homes until early 2009, as the government moves to stem the tide of home losses plaguing the economy.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said the hiatus on foreclosures -- which will run from November 26 through January 9 -- will give mortgage servicers more to work out easier borrowing terms for troubled homeowners.

....

The move by the two government-sponsored enterprises comes a week after their regulator unveiled a plan that could cut payments for hundreds of thousands of borrowers by easing terms on their loans. Homeowners facing foreclosure who are spending more than 38 percent of their income on mortgage payments could have payments reduced by the companies, under the program.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AJ90520081121

[ozymandius]

17. S&P 500’s Drop Leaves 64 Industries, 483 Companies With Losses

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The worst annual decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has dragged down every industry in the benchmark gauge and 97 percent of its stocks.

All 64 of the S&P 500’s so-called level-three categories, groups such as “distributors” and “leisure equipment” with as few as one company, dropped in 2008. Among 500 stocks, 483 slipped as the index fell 49 percent, poised for the biggest yearly retreat ever.

.....

More stocks decreased in the current bear market than in the 49 percent rout after the technology bubble burst in 2000. The breadth of declines this year is leaving investors without defensive strategies to protect against losses that erased more than $8 trillion from U.S. equities in 2008.

.....

American International Group Inc. posted the year’s biggest tumble in the S&P 500 as losses from mortgage-backed securities forced the government to arrange a bailout of the New York-based insurer. Shares from Bear Stearns Cos. to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., once among the biggest New York-based brokerages, disappeared from the market as credit crisis worsened and led to $965 billion in global losses.

The S&P 500 reached an 11-year low yesterday after jobless claims approached the highest level since 1982 and the Federal Reserve said manufacturing in the Philadelphia area shrank. Bank losses shrunk the economy and sent the gauge down 52 percent from its Oct. 9, 2007, record of 1,565.15.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aC9BtxtnWsiA&refer=us

[ozymandius]

18. Singapore falls into recession, cuts 2009 outlook

Singapore became the third major Asia-Pacific economy to fall into recession after data released Friday showed the economy had contracted for two straight quarters.

....

Gross domestic product growth contracted 0.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, or 6.8% from the previous quarter, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a statement Friday.

The contraction, which followed a revised 5.3% fall in the second quarter from the first, means Singapore technically follows Japan and Hong Kong into recession.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Singapore-falls-recession-cuts-2009/story.aspx?guid=%7B81BD9818%2D1469%2D4D7B%2DA8A1%2D4C13592A2E47%7D

[ozymandius]

19. Re-post from last night: TARP recipients

CAPITAL PURCHASE PROGRAM: $158,561,409,000 Total

$15,000,000,000 Bank of America Corporation
$3,000,000,000 Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
$25,000,000,000 Citigroup Inc.
$10,000,000,000 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
$25,000,000,000 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
$10,000,000,000 Morgan Stanley
$2,000,000,000 State Street Corporation
$25,000,000,000 Wells Fargo & Company
$10,000,000,000 Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
$17,000,000 Bank of Commerce Holdings
$16,369,000 1st FS Corporation
$298,737,000 UCBH Holdings, Inc.
$1,576,000,000 Northern Trust Corporation
$3,500,000,000 SunTrust Banks, Inc.
$9,000,000 Broadway Financial Corporation
$200,000,000 Washington Federal Inc.
$3,133,640,000 BB&T Corp.
$151,500,000 Provident Bancshares Corp.
$214,181,000 Umpqua Holdings Corp.
$2,250,000,000 Comerica Inc.
$3,500,000,000 Regions Financial Corp.
$3,555,199,000 Capital One Financial Corporation
$866,540,000 First Horizon National Corporation
$1,398,071,000 Huntington Bancshares
$2,500,000,000 KeyCorp
$300,000,000 Valley National Bancorp
$1,400,000,000 Zions Bancorporation
$1,715,000,000 Marshall & Ilsley Corporation
$6,599,000,000 U.S. Bancorp
$361,172,000 TCF Financial Corporation

http://www.treas.gov/initiatives/eesa/transactions.shtml

[DemReadingDU]

44. Is TARP Really a TRAP?

11/19/08 Is TARP Really a TRAP?

Posted by: Amy Barrett on November 19

The Treasury’s capital purchase program, the system for injecting capital into the nation’s banks, may look like a give away on the surface. But look a bit closer and there’s an interesting catch.

TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), of course, went from being an asset purchase program to a capital investment program and therefore needs a new name. Under the Treasury program, the government will invest $250 billion in the nation’s banks. A Treasury spokesperson says $158 billion has already been committed with another $92 billion to go. The hope is that new capital will get banks lending again. And many small banks, major small business lenders, are lining up now.

But here’s the rub: In section 5.3 of the agreement there is language that says if Congress wants to put new conditions or requirements on the banks, those new terms can be applied retroactively to banks who took the money. So in January if Congress wants to require banks that have received capital stop foreclosing on homes or up their lending activity, they can.

The American Association of Bank Directors sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in early November asking that the government delete or modify the provision. David Baris, Executive Director of the AABD, says the Treasury has not responded to the letter.

Bank consultant Bert Ely says that is going to give some bankers second thoughts.

It is a blank check for Congress to put conditions on money that has already gone out. I think banks will go through the process, but the more they look at this they’ll decline it at the end.

Now, the program is aimed at investing capital in healthy banks. If that's the case and they don't really need the money, it's hard to understand why a bank would agree to a deal that could change over night. Guess we'll see how many banks sign on the dotted line once they read the fine print.

http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/running_small_business/archives/2008/11/is_tarp_really.html

[Dr.Phool]

78. You mean it's like one of their credit card contracts.

Tell the banks when they change that provision, we'll think about theirs.

[Demeter]

79. As If Congress Would Actually DoSomething LikeThat

Without a bayonet in the rear.

[Hugin]

46. I'm going to bookmark this...

Maybe it needs to be a regular feature.

It'll be interesting to see if Bloomberg squeezes out some more info on where the money went.

[Demeter]

20. Morning, Everyone

I have to think it's more than this flu that leaves me indifferent to the DOW---after all, it's the final reel, all the plotlines are winding up, and the movie is a downer. Furthermore, nobody has a clue how to proceed from here.

Is the entire economy rotten and collapsing? A good gardener would cut off and burn all the diseased and deadwood, amend the soil, adjust the light, and fuss and pay attention.

The thing is, this particular set of gardeners thinks that actual labor is deadwood, when it is the towering layers of Management that should be cut and burned. Bad management has been a huge problem since at least the 70's, which is as far back as my personal knowledge goes. Nixon was a product of his time, and reflected the corporate world as much as the corporate world created Nixon. The political structure and the corporate one are two sides of the same coin. Trouble is, the coin is counterfeit.

[Ghost Dog]

22. Absolutely right

in my experience also.

[ozymandius]

23. We have old problems in a new market.

If Bernanke, the 1929 crash scholar, were to use hindsight as his guide in this crisis successfully, then we would not have the kind of derivatives-laden bird's nest of a market economy that we see today. It's not 1929 as Chopper Ben has figured out. Flooding the banking system with liquidity (reverse of what the Fed did in 1929-30) does not work.

We also have a greater number of financial sectors of the shadowy sort equal in significance to the openly traded markets. The shadow system, I believe, is virtually untouched by Bernanke and Paulson's aid. By that extension - the shadow system's malaise is driving the whole economic engine into the ground.

The cartoon grabbed me: time to drive a stake in those derivative vampires' hearts.

[Hugin]

30. What we really need is a 1935 scholar...

All a '29 scholar knows is how to get IN to a Depression-like scenario.

[Hugin]

29. Oh, there you are!

I stormed over here worried because you hadn't posted the Weekend Economist yet...

AND I REALIZED IT'S ONLY FRIDAY! :blush:

Man, my time sense is all screwed up lately. :rofl:

Nice to see you're here... (even though I'm not, apparently. :eyes: )

[Demeter]

42. I'm Only Half Here, Anyway, Prag, But Thanks for Looking

I've been ready for Friday since Wednesday.

[Hugin]

45. Welcome fellow Time Traveler.

:hi:

Now, if I could only go back in time... With an Almanac... and some Gold... *sigh*

:tinfoilhat:

[ozymandius]

21. Graph: Worst Crash Since Great Depression

Linked from Calculated Risk
...
Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.
...

The original post comes from dshort.com.

Here's a chart that shows today's S&P 500 bear alongside the 1973-74 and 2000-02 bears and the Dow super-bear from 1929-32. Although the ultimate severity of today's bear is unknown, the rate of decline had been faster and deeper than the other post 1950 declines.

On October 9th of last year the S&P 500 reached an all-time closing high of 1565.15. On July 9th, the index slumped to a closing low of 1,244.69. The decline of 20.5% marked the beginning of the ninth S&P 500 "bear market" since 1950.

Go to link for chart.

[tclambert]

146. OK, but this time, Herbert Hoover only has 60 more days until FDR takes over.

Back then, they had to wait 3 years, past the end of that gray line on the graph (89.2% drop) before the new guy took charge. I'm hoping the confidence Obama's swearing in brings to the nation and the world will stop the slide, and the initiatives he introduces in his first 100 days will produce substantive relief. Anticipation of the new president might make it happen earlier, or a wait-and-see attitude might cause a lag. Sorry I don't feel confident enough to predict January 19th as a great day to buy stock.

[Ghost Dog]

152. Exactly. Big difference, potentially...

If allowed to act correctly.

[TheWatcher]

25. Watch The Carnival Closely Today.

Good Morning Marketeers,

As I expected, the Overnight Jam Party held, which means that something has been cooked up by the Official Sector today for a feel good, ridiculous disconnection from reality day in the Markets.

The Cover Story is in place as ozy Posted above. Citi putting itself up for sale, and Dell posting "upbeat results", Which is complete and total Bullshit when you consider Dell is practically the Poster Child of Pro Forma Earnings behind Amazon (Remember your Wall Street Criminal Glossary Kids. Pro Forma = We Made It Up.)

Also news about Gas being down below $2.00 a gallon, and Oil being trading below $50.00 a barrel.

Asia coordinated with our Crack Party overnight, so the setup is in place.

And let's not forget the pom-pom memes of "oversold", "money on the sidelines", "Savvy investors picking up bargains of a lifetime". Who knows, maybe even some of the "economic experts" will show up today during the meth party and giggle and snicker, pull out their charts and "educate" us some more about how these Markets really work, so that we will somehow get a clue and join reality. Their charity is so touching.

Today is going to be another Bizarro Day. Just get ready for it and deal with it. We've seen this a million times before.

A lot of respected posters on Lee Adler's Board (Formerly Prubear Bear Chat) brought up something several times last night that I think bears looking at, even for the simple fact that we are at a very critical inflection point in the Markets right now.

If you look back at the charts from the past six years, this territory might look a little familiar to you. Looks a lot like October 9th, 2002, doesn't it?

That was the last time we stood on the edge of the cliff.

Well, we all know what happened after that. Dow 14,000, and one of the most artificial, orchestrated, shameful, ridiculous, and completely reality disconnected trading environments we have ever seen.

We are there again kids. Very close to the 2002 lows, everything sliding into the abyss, and all indicators saying, "Game Over"

And with all the abyss bearing down on us, the Futures are once again screaming that Happy Days are here again, and that everything is about to magically get better.

Plus, it's expiration.

Today feels a lot like October 9th, 2002.

The question is, can they do it again? Can Infinite Bid, Infinite Fiat, and Infinite Bullshit really do this one more time?

We shall have to see.

I leave you with this nugget from Bear Chat, from one of the guys who has really had his finger on this whole Circus Of Nonsense since 2002:

PPT or lack thereof... Bulldog

NEW 11/21/2008 4:05:56 AM
Post Your Reply

Someone asked me about the PPT, and about whether they had stepped aside. Well. Yes, I believe the PPT has stepped aside - during September. Recall, though it's easy to forget, that the S&P stayed above the 1,200 level until September of this year. This, despite a torrent of bad news. And now, the PPT HAD actively been buying during the last hour of the close - has fueled some spectacular rallies, including last Thursday, this Tuesday and yesterday - ramming the S&P up 3% in less than an hour.

That said, where haven't they been there at the close. Well if today is a big up day, I am one day late figuring out their game plan. This may be the bottom, because they have allowed for the perfect setup today - option expiration. This could be an epic set up for a remarkably profitable opportunity. By buying calls at the close yesterday, a massive transfer of wealth could occur be creating a bottom right here. When they have wanted to, TPTB have been able to control the price action. Well, the setup it perfect to crush the shorts today - along with all the call sellers.

Yea, I know, Bulldog, this is really out there (believe me I have heard it all before). Yea, it is out there. However, think about the hoards of mutual funds, hedge funds & pensions getting every - NOW PROFITABLE TRADE (selling calls) getting yanked away from them. The ultimate fleece. Plus, it creates natural demand for additional buying to fuel the rise. Moreover, WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS DONE BEFORE IN 1998!!!

So, IN ADVANCE (and I could be wrong), but if we see the rally from hell, DON'T CRUCIFY ME, FOLLOW THE MONEY.

http://bearschat.wallstreetexaminer.com/bbs_read.asp?mid=768220&tid=768220&fid=1&start=1&sr=1&sb=1&snsa=A#M768220

Safe Trading Today Marketeers.

I expect specimenfred's posts will be visceral today indeed. :) (As they should be)

And try not to trip over the Dancing Girls.

Remember, this might be the LAST TIME you have to buy The Dow below 8000!

Before it goes to 5000.

(Of course, if I am wrong and this coordinated Kegger does not hold or falls flat, and the Fairies pass out on the way to their little Black Boxes, we are in BIG TROUBLE.)

[DemReadingDU]

31. Thanks for the link, interesting

hey, I used to read someone over there at the wallstreetexaminer, but he hasn't posted in a year. Have you heard what happened to Bernard Ducalion? He originally posted over at Roubini's blog ( http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini ), and then he started his own blog, then he disappeared.

Here is Bernard's blog, 'Bear in Mind'
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/ducalion/


edit to add this article by Bernard...

April 2007 - Too Much Like 1929
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/toomuch.html

same article, different link
Too Much Like 1929
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/ducalion/?p=126

[Hugin]

34. Nice explanation Watcher.

There's going to be some kind of offensive (in every sense of the word) push today.

Whether or not it will work remains to be seen... But, if anything happens it'll only be as temporary as
the Saudi Prince's announcement Yesterday.

:popcorn:

[Dr.Phool]

37. Maybe someone forgot to bring the Kool-Aid to the party.

Most of European markets turning red. A couple slightly in the green.

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe



European shares pare gains; banks up, pharma down
Fri Nov 21, 2008 7:45am EST


LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - European shares pared gains in afternoon trade on Friday as persistent concerns about a deep global recession prompted investors to trade cautiously ahead of the weekend.

At 1239 GMT, FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares was 0.2 percent higher at 782.93 points after hovering in a broad range of 776.09-796.15 points.

The benchmark was heading for a third week of losses in a row and has fallen nearly 48 percent so far this year on concerns about the financial sector's health and a prolonged global recession.

Pharmaceutical shares took most points off the index, but banking and commodity stocks were higher. (Reporting by Atul Prakash)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALL48467620081121?rpc=44

[Hugin]

39. Throw some more money on the fire.

I'm feeling a chill.

[Demeter]

80. It Was 18F Here After Sunrise

I submit to you, global warming is a lie. 18F before Thanksgiving? In southern Michigan? I shudder to think how cold it was BEFORE sunrise.

[Dr.Phool]

85. It was only 65 here then.

And that's cold for this time of year.

[Demeter]

43. There Ought to Be a Law Against Such Foolishness

there probably is, but the sherrif is in on the take.

[Pale Blue Dot]

51. For some reason, today I think I'll take your bet.

Futures ARE way up right now, but European markets are mostly down after starting the day up. My bet is that the typical pollyanna crap is not going to work anymore - at least not longer than an hour. I think that market ends down again today.

As always, my prediction is worth what you paid for it.

[sarcasmo]

127. Don't you think the correction will be down to 3000 before it levels.

That's a quarter of the inflated 12000 mark.

[DemReadingDU]

28. GMAC applies for bank bailout funding

11/21/08 Detroit-based GMAC Financial Services has applied to become a bank holding company so it can tap into federal bailout funds approved by Congress in October.

GMAC, the financing arm of General Motors Corp., currently does business as a financial services company. GMAC said that becoming a bank holding company would enable it to accept customer deposits and would open up additional funding alternatives.

"We are obviously looking to improve our access to funding, and we think this path of becoming a bank holding company represents the best opportunity for GMAC to provide auto and mortgage lending to our customers," said GMAC spokeswoman Gina Proia.

On Thursday, the Charlotte Observer reported that GMAC is negotiating for office space in Charlotte. The paper also reported that GMAC had about 1,250 employees in North Carolina as of September.

"There are no plans to relocate our staff," Proia said, "in particular, our Detroit staff."

GMAC employs 1,720 in Michigan, including 730 in the Renaissance Center.


more...
http://www.freep.com/article/20081121/BUSINESS06/811210342

[UpInArms]

32. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.504 Change -0.781 (-1.00%)

Euro Could Rebound Against US Dollar as Light Calendar Boosts Risk Appetite (Euro Open)

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Euro_Could_Rebound_Against_US_1227248083518.html

The economic calendar offers few surprises in European trading hours. French Consumer Spending is seen falling -0.5% in October, bringing the annualized rate down to 0.9% from the 1.5% recorded in the previous month. Italy’s Retail Sales metric is set to shrink for the second consecutive month with receipts falling -0.2%. Stagnant consumer demand is hardly shocking: both countries have seen consumer confidence near the lowest levels in over a decade while the cumulative Euro Zone metric printed at the worst since 1994 in October. Europeans have understandably tightened their belts as unemployment rose and household wealth was eroded by falling home values and stock prices. The nail in the coffin came last week: the Euro Zone was formally confirmed to be in recession as the economy shrank for the second consecutive quarter in the three months through September.

On balance, forex traders have long priced in poor economic fundamentals for the 15-nation currency bloc, meaning today’s releases are unlikely to spark substantial Euro volatility. Risk sentiment has been far more instrumental in shaping near-term directional bias for the single currency. Indeed, EURUSD now shows a hefty 94% correlation with the MSCI Index of world stock performance, meaning the US Dollar has gained on the Euro as stock prices fell. As we noted yesterday, this inter-market correlation has been driven by demand for USD-denominated “risk-free” assets, with capital rushing out of stocks, commodities, and high-yielding currencies to seek safe haven in long term US Treasury bonds.

In the immediate term, this could add up to a bit of upside for the Euro to close out the trading week. With no US economic data to spook markets, stocks may have room for a relief rally after a brutal weak of heavy loses. Asian stock exchanges battled back into positive territory late into overnight trading after an initial selloff under the weight of another down day on Wall St. US index futures are also up over 2%, suggesting easing risk aversion. Should positive momentum remain throughout the European session, the Euro could mount a come-back. This would be consistent with our technical outlook calling for a near-term correction in EURUSD before the dominant down trend regains momentum.

...more...

Canadian CPI Fails to Impress, Stoking Bets for BoC Rate Cut

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Canadian_CPI_Fails_to_Impress__1227269938643.html

• USDCAD – Price pressures in Canada weakened further as the annual rate of inflation slipped to 2.6% from 3.4% in September. In addition, the core measure for inflation continued to hold steady at 1.7% despite expectations for a 0.2% increase to 1.9%. Meanwhile, alleviating price pressures will allow the Bank of Canada to ease policy further over the coming months as they expected inflation to fall to 1% next year.

• EURUSD – Service-based activity in Euro-Zone contracted for the sixth consecutive month in November as the advanced PMI reading slipped to 43.3 from 45.8. In addition, the manufacturing PMI plunged to 36.2 from 41.1, and led the PMI composite to reach its lowest level since recordkeeping began in 1998 as the index slipped to 39.7 from 43.6 in the previous month. A deeper look into the report showed that new orders declined to 29.7 from 36.2, while the employment component weakened to 41.3 from 44.4. Furthermore, the advanced services PMI reading for Germany contracted for the second consecutive month as the index slipped to 46.2 from 48.3 in October. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth straight month as the PMI reading slipped to 36.7 from 42.9. The breakdown of the report showed that new orders plunged to 30.9 from 39.2 in the previous month, while the employment component slipped to 44.3 from 47.1. The data suggests that Europe’s largest economy is slowing at an even faster pace in the fourth quarter, and conditions may only get worse over the coming months as demands from home and abroad deteriorate. The dour outlook for Germany has certainly raised expectations that the European Central Bank will ease policy further at the December 4th policy meeting.

• USDJPY – The Bank of Japan voted unanimously to hold the benchmark interest rate steady at 0.30% as expected, and went onto say that the policy board may increase their efforts to pump liquidity back into the credit market as conditions remain far from normal. In addition, the central bank noted that economic growth has ‘been increasingly sluggish’ as demands from the global economy falter, and said that economic activity is likely to remain subdued for ‘some time’ as the growth outlook remains bleak.

...more...

[dweller]

35. A reminder from American Express: Only 34 shoppings days left

until you declare bankruptcy.


(courtesy of Dave Letterman)

dp

[DemReadingDU]

47. After Losses, Pensions Ask For a Change

11/20/08 After Losses, Pensions Ask For a Change
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH

Stung by outsize investment losses, some of the nation’s biggest companies are pushing Congress to roll back rules requiring them to put more money into their pension funds, just two years after President Bush signed a law meant to strengthen the pension system.

The total value of company pension funds is thought to have fallen by more than $250 billion since last winter. With cash now in short supply for companies, they are asking Congress to excuse them from having to replenish the required amounts.

Lawmakers from both parties seem receptive to the idea, and there was talk of adding a pension relief provision to the broad fiscal stimulus package Congress considered for this week’s lame-duck session.

Late Wednesday, several senators announced that they had reached agreement on a bill that would provide pension relief. Even if it is not completed this week, some Congressional leaders say they will seek support for a pension relief bill in January.

“Congress needs to make the funding less volatile,” said Representative Earl Pomeroy, Democrat of North Dakota, who has long been outspoken on pension issues. “I believe that taking this step will save thousands of jobs without costing the Treasury anything.”

more...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/business/economy/20pension.html?hp

[Hugin]

48. ~08:45 ET: Futures up...

DJIA INDEX 7,685.00 198.00 08:46
S&P 500 768.80 20.50 08:48
NASDAQ 100 1,059.25 19.75 08:48

[Hugin]

53. ~09:00 ET: Pre-Opening Futures...

DJIA INDEX 7,692.00 205.00 09:02
S&P 500 769.00 20.70 09:02
NASDAQ 100 1,058.00 18.50 09:02

[DemReadingDU]

49. Obama Embrace of Wall Street Insiders Points to Politic Reforms

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- During the height of the financial crisis in late September, some of Barack Obama's campaign advisers pushed him in a conference call to distance himself from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief executive officer, they warned, was too close to President George W. Bush and Wall Street. Obama, 47, rejected the idea. At one point, he talked to Paulson every day for two weeks.

As the president-elect faces a once-in-a-century opportunity to remake the regulatory apparatus governing Wall Street, some of Obama's fellow Democrats and investor groups are urging him to bring sweeping changes to banks, hedge funds and executive pay. His closest economic advisers, men like Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers and Paul Volcker, may recommend otherwise: go slow. If Obama takes their counsel, the 44th president, who succeeds Bush on Jan. 20, may not clamp down all that hard on a financial industry whose excesses have pushed the nation -- and much of the world -- into a recession.

``This is a group of people that understands the markets, respects the free-market system and understands government has an important role to play,'' says Eugene Ludwig, a former U.S. comptroller of the currency who is himself an Obama adviser. ``But there are limits on what government can or should do.''

Both Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930s and Ronald Reagan five decades later saw an economic crisis as an opportunity to make major changes. Roosevelt, in response to the Great Depression, created Social Security and federal deposit insurance. During the 1981-82 recession, Reagan set out to reverse the centralization of power in Washington that was at the heart of the Roosevelt revolution; he ushered in a quarter-century of deregulation.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aWSz2kUxdTiU&refer=home

[Hugin]

50. "This is a group of people that understands the markets..."

Obviously. :eyes:

[Changenow]

54. Not a particularly reassuring article,

to say the least.

[Demeter]

81. This Week Ought To End THAT Particular Honeymoon

Disgusting. I Expect better from Obama than recycled insiders. I expect some new blood, that doesn'tcome from MY veins!

[wellst0nev0ter]

55. Crazy Talk

Shamlessly Stolen from Atrios

Layoffs, Once a Boon to Stock Prices, Now a Burden

Back when things made sense in the stock market, a company announcing layoffs would be greeted as a positive sign that it was getting its act together and shoring up its bottom line.

Not today, though, when job cuts, such as the 53,000 served up this week by Citigroup, are greeted as just another reason to think the sky is falling.

"Anytime where people aren't totally panic-stricken about everything and where the one-offs tend to be more company-specific ... historically many of those companies have rallied on the appearance that they are developing some fiscal responsibility," says Uri Landesman, head of global growth strategies at ING Investment Management. "In this case, however, it is being seen as a sign of deeper panic."

[Hugin]

57. I remember a time before that time...

When Mass Layoffs were seen as Poor Management and prompted a sell-off.

But, that was a time before Supply-Side Economics gained it's hegemony during Reagan.

[AnneD]

109. And those were the times when as recession....

reared it's ugly head, on took your lumps straight on-not tried to game the system. When CEO's lived, breathed, and bleed the company and came up through the ranks-not directly from the Havard or Wharton business school.

We are dating our selves Prag.

[tclambert]

148. Ah, the before time, when up was up and down was down,

and people understood that if a company decreased its headcount, it was not a sign of growth.

[Hugin]

56. ~09:33 ET: Initial numbers...

Dow 7,683.55 +131.26 (1.74%)
S&P 500 766.00 +13.56 (1.80%)
Nasdaq 1,341.50 +25.38 (1.93%)
10y bond 3.17% +0.02 (0.63%)

Also, a mention that Citibank is NOT ON THE BLOCK... I repeat, NOT ON THE BLOCK. (But, these days... Who knows
what to believe. Probably a move to keep their value up to make them a more attractive sell.)

[Hugin]

58. ~09:45 ET: Losing upward momentum...

Dow 7,620.23 +67.94 (0.90%)
S&P 500 763.46 +11.02 (1.46%)
Nasdaq 1,334.25 +18.13 (1.38%)
10y bond 3.18% +0.02 (0.63%)

[Hugin]

60. ~09:50 ET: Upward momentum regained...

Dow 7,690.16 +137.87 (1.83%)
S&P 500 770.27 +17.83 (2.37%)
Nasdaq 1,346.46 +30.34 (2.31%)
10y bond 3.17% +0.01 (0.32%)

[Hugin]

63. ~10:00 ET: Almost back to flatline...

Dow 7,555.23 +2.94 (0.04%)
S&P 500 756.12 +3.68 (0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,324.12 +8.00 (0.61%)
10y bond 3.18% +0.02 (0.63%)

[Hugin]

66. C - update.

C 3.93 -0.78 (-16.56%) 21.42B

[legin]

71. That was the one I was watching

bumped into this page:
U.S. Stocks in Frankfurt
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/frankfurt/

and pre DOW market opening it was down 9% in Frankfurt

but when the DOW opened it was up (DOW), but now it seems to be in-line (well much worse).

[Hugin]

72. The different sectors are all over the place.

Indexes on the whole are slightly up, last I looked.

[Hugin]

59. Wal-Mart names new CEO (via CNN)

"World's largest retailer says international chief Mike Duke will succeed Lee Scott, who is retiring."

"By Parija B. Kavilanz, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: November 21, 2008: 9:14 AM ET"


"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wal-Mart Stores announced Friday that CEO Lee Scott will retire and the company's board has elected Mike Duke, vice chairman of Wal-Mart International, to succeed him.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) said the transition would take effect on Feb. 1. Duke was also elected to the company's board of directors.

Scott, who held various positions with Wal-Mart over 30 years before becoming CEO in 1998, will continue serving as chairman of the executive committee of the board.

Duke, 58, joined Wal-Mart in 1995. Prior to heading the retailer's international division, Duke also served as president and CEO of Wal-Mart USA."

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/21/news/companies/walmart/?postversion=2008112109

[antigop]

62. WSJ: Treasury Will Help Liquidate Reserve Fund

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122722728577846211.html

In an unusual step, the U.S. Treasury announced it will help liquidate a money-market fund from Reserve Management Corp., whose travails touched off the recent turmoil in money funds that has rocked the investing world.

The move illustrates how far authorities are willing to go to make money-fund investors whole who have been hurt in recent weeks. It also confirms how tight credit markets remain for some short-term debt.

The Treasury is essentially acting as a buyer of last resort for the Reserve U.S. Government Fund, which invests in securities from the government and agencies like Fannie Mae. A lot of the assets are so-called floating-rate debt, which are borrowings with variable interest rates that have become particularly unattractive in the current tight credit market.

The Treasury on Thursday said it was stepping in because of "unique and extraordinary" circumstances at the fund.

[htuttle]

64. The Gov't is buying securities from a fund that invests in Gov't securities?

Do I have that right? The Treasury is going to invest in itself?

Does this make any sense??

:crazy:

[Hugin]

65. They're the experts.

See post #49 above about Insiders. :snort:

:shrug:

[antigop]

67. there are "unique and extraordinary circumstances"

:crazy: :crazy:

[Demeter]

82. They Are Buying Back Their Worthless Paper From Squeaky Wheels

We've seen this earlier in the fall. Move along, now. Nothing to see here. These are not the droids you are looking for.

[antigop]

69. Kill bill: Senate nixes proposal to ease pension funding requirements

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081121/REG/811219993/1036

A bill designed to boost the economy in part by easing stringent pension funding rules for companies died in the lame-duck session of the Senate on Thursday, November 20.

It’s not clear whether the measure will be revived in another special session in December or will have to wait until a new Congress is seated in January.
...
The pension measure, which also included business tax breaks and pension rule relief for individuals, was put on a fast track for Senate passage but halted when at least one member anonymously objected. Even if the bill had made it through the Senate, it’s not clear when or if the House would have acted.

I was wondering what else was in this bill....

[UpInArms]

73. Fed's sLacker shows he's clueless

03. Lacker: Fed has wide variety of tools to conduct policy
10:09 AM ET, Nov 21, 2008

04. Lacker: Concerned rule for Fed market intervention not clear
10:08 AM ET, Nov 21, 2008

05. Lacker sees significant slowdown in Q4
10:06 AM ET, Nov 21, 2008

06. Lacker sticks with forecast of pickup in late '09
10:06 AM ET, Nov 21, 2008

07. Lacker: Fed policy works even if rates can't fall below zero
10:05 AM ET, Nov 21, 2008

08. Fed's Lacker doesn't see deflation as significant threat
10:03 AM ET, Nov 21, 2008

[cal04]

75. Barclays Capital sees Obama passing $300 bln fiscal stimulus

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Barclays-Capital-sees-Obama-passing/story.aspx?guid=%7B3FFBB1D2%2D7F7E%2D4CA4%2D837A%2D1924ED4EBB3F%7D&dist=hplatest

Barclays Capital on Friday became the latest Wall Street forecaster to predict Congress under the upcoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama could pass at least a $300 billion fiscal-stimulus package to jumpstart the U.S. economy. That would roughly double the stimulus bill enacted in February and mirrors Bank of America Corp.'s forecast.

A second package would likely focus more on government outlays -- such as spending infrastructure, aid to state and local governments and food stamps -- than tax cuts, given Obama's leanings and the stronger Democrat majority in Congress, Barclays said. Economists Zach Pandl and Ethan Harris predicted such a stimulus could add 1.5 percentage points to gross domestic product in 2009.

[Dr.Phool]

76. I take The Fudd to the dog park for an hour, and you people kill the economy. Again.

I can't turn my back on this place for an hour. I'm going to start drinking heavily as soon as I get some lunch or breakfast or whatever.

That'll learn ya.

[Hugin]

77. I'm way ahead of you.

:beer:

[Demeter]

83. I Understand Alcohol Is Good For What Ails Me

Unfortunately, I have to wait until 5 PM.

[Dr.Phool]

84. As we say around here.

It's always 5:00 somewhere.

[TrogL]

86. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-10-10 Friday, October 10 0.840336 USD
2008-10-13 Monday, October 13 0.840336 USD
2008-10-14 Tuesday, October 14 0.862143 USD
2008-10-15 Wednesday, October 15 0.84717 USD
2008-10-16 Thursday, October 16 0.83661 USD
2008-10-17 Friday, October 17 0.846024 USD
2008-10-20 Monday, October 20 0.834934 USD
2008-10-21 Tuesday, October 21 0.819135 USD
2008-10-22 Wednesday, October 22 0.800256 USD
2008-10-23 Thursday, October 23 0.795355 USD
2008-10-24 Friday, October 24 0.785238 USD
2008-10-27 Monday, October 27 0.773096 USD
2008-10-28 Tuesday, October 28 0.772678 USD
2008-10-29 Wednesday, October 29 0.812876 USD
2008-10-30 Thursday, October 30 0.817728 USD
2008-10-31 Friday, October 31 0.817728 USD
2008-11-03 Monday, November 3 0.842744 USD
2008-11-04 Tuesday, November 4 0.869414 USD
2008-11-05 Wednesday, November 5 0.862813 USD
2008-11-06 Thursday, November 6 0.84631 USD
2008-11-07 Friday, November 7 0.845309 USD
2008-11-10 Monday, November 10 0.83696 USD
2008-11-11 Tuesday, November 11 0.83696 USD
2008-11-12 Wednesday, November 12 0.813273 USD
2008-11-13 Thursday, November 13 0.812282 USD
2008-11-14 Friday, November 14 0.816927 USD
2008-11-17 Monday, November 17 0.8188 USD
2008-11-18 Tuesday, November 18 0.817194 USD
2008-11-19 Wednesday, November 19 0.808407 USD
2008-11-20 Thursday, November 20 0.77821 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.7824 0.7824 0.7774 0.7774 -0.0015 -0.19% 11:01 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.7772 0.7835 0.7772 0.7782 -0.0227 -2.90% set 15:06 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.7800 0.7800 0.7800 0.7800 +0.0015 +0.19% 10:15 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.7789 -0.0223 -2.86% set 15:06 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.7791 -0.0221 -2.84% set 15:06 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.7000 0.7000 0.7000 0.7790 -0.0224 -2.88% set 15:06 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.7789 -0.0227 -2.91% set 15:06

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.7855 0.7855 0.7855 0.7855 -0.0181 -2.30%   
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.4737 1.4737 1.4737 1.4737 -0.0072 -0.49%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.8400 0.8405 0.8400 0.8405 -0.0030 -0.36%     
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 118.600 119.300 118.600 119.170 +0.775 +0.66%      
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.25140 1.26250 1.24360 1.24630 -0.00395 -0.32%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at 76.86 would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for additional weakness into early- December. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.93. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.84. First support is October's low crossing at 76.86. Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 79.83.

Analysis

Morning drivein was stressing about drops in markets all over the world with no end in sight. Also the US auto industry's collapse's affect on Canadian auto sector.

TD Canada Trust's stock dropped precipitously over a drop in business.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

87. Today, we will be doing the Schaedenfreude Funky Chicken.

To something appropriate by Slayer.

PETROLEUM ($/bbl)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Crude Future 48.59 -.83 -1.68 11:09
Dated Brent Spot 46.31 .75 1.64 11:38
WTI Cushing Spot 49.41 -.21 -.42 09:15


PETROLEUM (¢/gal)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Heating Oil Future 167.71 .12 .07 11:09
Nymex RBOB Gasoline Future 102.36 1.66 1.65 11:07


NATURAL GAS ($/MMBtu)
PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Henry Hub Future 6.45 .14 2.17 11:08
Henry Hub Spot 6.75 -.01 -.15 11/20
New York City Gate Spot 8.18 .11 1.36 11/20

I must admit that my calculations and predictions about RBOB were deeply in error. Looks like it's gonna go below a buck just about any minute now. I was saying by the Inaug.

Please forgive me. ;-)

[Demeter]

89. Bay area powers up for age of electric cars

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/83ab3888-b76a-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c.html


Government and business leaders in the San Francisco Bay area laid out plans on Thursday for new infrastructure capable of supporting a vast fleet of electric cars. Local officials described the move as part of an attempt to put the region – including Silicon Valley – at the forefront of electric vehicle development in the US.

The plans also mark the first venture into the US of a private group run by Shai Agassi, an Israeli-born entrepreneur. Known as Better Place, Mr Agassi’s company has already reached agreements in Israel, Denmark and Australia this year to build networks of plug-in points and battery-changing stations to act as the “refuelling” infrastructure for electric cars...


Most development in electric cars is likely to happen in the crowded urban centres of Europe and Asia, according to an analysis by California’s Air Resources Board last year, pointing to the high cost of batteries, limited driving range of the vehicles and the higher cost of petrol in many countries outside the US...By stimulating a mass market in electric vehicles, local officials and business leaders said they hoped to give further impetus to Silicon Valley’s recent investment boom in new “green” alternative energy and environmental technologies.

“Once you put the network in place, innovation happens close to where the network is,” said Mr Agassi.

Backers of the plan hope to capitalise on Californians’ heightened awareness of environmental issues, demonstrated by the fact that more than half of all Toyota’s Prius hybrid vehicles in the US have been sold in the state. However, with petrol prices halving in recent weeks as oil prices have dropped, the short-term economic impetus for consumers to switch has fallen.

“We’re looking at the long-term problem of oil prices,” said Mr Agassi, who predicted that prices would rise by 2012, when the infrastructure for the electric vehicles is planned to be in place.
Mr Agassi said his company expected to spend $250m by 2012 on building the “refuelling” infrastructure needed to support a Bay area mass market

[Gregorian]

100. Wow.

I continue to be impressed by Bay Area progressive action. Even if I can't tolerate living there. Smart stuff.

I live down the road from a guy who makes electric tractors.

[Demeter]

90. Reykjavik borrows $10bn to stave off collapse

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0620d1c-b6e0-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c.html

Iceland had to borrow about $10bn on Thursday, roughly the size of its entire gross domestic product, to prevent its economy collapsing. The move underlined the damage wrought by last month’s disintegration of the country’s banking system. Iceland finally secured a $5.1bn (€4bn, £3.4bn) bail-out for its crisis-stricken economy, comprising $2.1bn from the International Monetary Fund and additional loans of up to $3bn from Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Poland and the Faroe Islands. It also agreed to borrow £2.2bn from the UK government and €1.3bn from the Netherlands government which will be used to compensate depositors in Icesave, the online arm of Landsbanki, the collapsed bank.

The loans will expose 320,000 Icelanders to a brutal recession, soaring inflation and an enormous debt burden that will haunt them for years in the form of taxes, threatening to trigger mass emigration. Up to a third of the population have said they want to flee the island.

The huge rescue package and its damaging domestic effect mark the official end of a 17-year experiment in free market economics that transformed Iceland from a fishing-based backwater to a booming tiger economy and now to the humiliation of an IMF-led bail out....

The krona has lost about 70 per cent of its value since the crisis. Authorities are braced for a new wave of selling by foreign owners of up to IKr400bn ($3bn, €2.4bn, £2bn) of Icelandic bonds that could push it even lower.

The social and political implications of the crisis and the loans needed to bail the country out will be apparent in the months to come. The government has already agreed to reverse its long-standing opposition to joining the European Union and adopting the euro as its currency. It hopes to start discussions early next year. But frequent demonstrations on the streets of Reykjavik by disgruntled citizens against Geir Haarde, prime minister, and David Oddsson, the governor of the central bank, indicate that there could be pressure for political change in the near future.

[UpInArms]

92. the official end of a 17-year experiment in free market economics

:eyes:

[DemReadingDU]

136. A Failed Experiment by Ernest Partridge

6/5/07 A Failed Experiment by Ernest Partridge

On January 20, 1981, in his first inaugural address, Ronald Reagan told the nation: "Government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem."

Thus began a grand experiment: Release the American economy from the bonds of government regulation. Individual enterprise and initiative, the profit motive, the free market and open competition will usher in a new birth of freedom and a new era of unprecedented prosperity.

“It’s morning in America.”

Twenty-six years later, what do we have? A dismantled and “outsourced” industrial base, an impoverished work force, a nine trillion dollar debt burden upon future generations, and a degradation of education and scientific research, a captive media that deprives the public of essential news as it issues outright lies. In addition, the Bush administration, the current keeper of the covenant, has accomplished the trashing of the Constitution and its guaranteed Bill of Rights, a seemingly endless war with no prospect (or even definition) of victory, and the contempt of the peoples and governments of the civilized world.

The grand experiment has failed, and we are just beginning to realize the enormous costs of that failure.

How did it happen? It happened because the core dogmas of this so-called “conservatism” – the possibility and desirability of an ungoverned society, the superior “wisdom” of an unconstrained free market, the suitability of simple greed as a driving force of society – were fated from the start to fail the test of “real world” application.

continue, this is an excellent article...
http://www.crisispapers.org/essays7p/experiment.htm

[tclambert]

151. I hope that's not just wishful thinking.

Some people have a remarkable resistance to real data. In their anti-scientific thought processes, if the data doesn't match their pet theories, they just need to find a way to "spin" the data properly, or call it into question. Obviously, their theory can't be wrong. "Obviously" because they believe in the theory, and their immovable faith trumps data or reality.

I have faith some of them won't be convinced. Because we've been through this entire argument back in the 1930s and settled it then. What was it that's supposed to happen to those who refuse to learn from history?

[Ghost Dog]

153. Extinction. n/t

[tclambert]

156. Good reply. Your grim humor made me chuckle.

[Ghost Dog]

130. That is very, very heavy for ordinary Icelanders.

Thankfully, they are (usually) a stoic, mutually-aiding people.

I read that it is all-but impossible now for Icelanders to obtain foreign currency (nobody wants their krone).

As in Cuba's case (but in an entirely different context), everyone who can afford to and who feels for Icelanders should consider spending some vacation time on that quite unique island in the near future, imho.

[Demeter]

91. Nomura chief says liquidity crisis over

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e7907de-b628-11dd-89dd-0000779fd18c.html


Published: November 19 2008 11:49 | Last updated: November 19 2008 11:49

The head of Nomura, Japan’s largest broker, on Wednesday said the global liquidity crisis was over and a recovery of the global economy would depend on financial support from key governments, especially China.

“From a very optimistic point of view, the financial liquidity crisis has subsided, for the time being, and the focus has shifted to the real economy,” said Kenichi Watanabe, chief executive of Nomura. “The important thing is…how to use engines of growth,” to overcome the global slowdown, he said.

In particular, “how China’s growth engine is turned up or down,” would make a significant difference to world growth, added Mr Watanabe.

Mr Watanabe’s comments come as the Japanese government conceded earlier this week that the world’s second largest economy had fallen into recession....

WELL, LOOKS LIKE HE GOT HIS

[UpInArms]

93. Goldman cuts U.S. growth forecast - forecasting negative 5% for Q4 2008

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AK4LN20081121

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Friday lowered its U.S. growth forecast citing a fiscal policy stagnation, record increase in unemployment and a sharp decline in profits, deepening and extending the expected recession.

Goldman said it now expects U.S. GDP to fall 5 percent in the current quarter, with unemployment rate reaching 9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

It also forecast the 10-year yield to fall to 2.75 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2009, as compared to previously estimated 3.5 percent.

"The combination of weaker real activity and slower inflation means that profits of U.S. companies will fall even more sharply than we had previously expected," Goldman said in a note to clients.

Goldman now sees economic profits falling 25 percent in 2009 on an annual average basis, the biggest drop since 1938. It had earlier expected a fall of 20 percent.

Goldman expects unemployment rates to further go up in 2010 as well, as there is little chance of the economy returning to trend growth by that year.

The GDP growth is expected to fall 3 percent and 1 percent in the next two quarters, bringing the drop in GDP close to the decline seen in 1982, economists at Goldman Sachs said.

...more...

[Demeter]

98. Since Michigan Is Officially 9.3% Unemployed Right Now, Where Will That Leave Us

at the end of 2009?

[Dr.Phool]

102. I think the winner of the OSU-Michigan game tomorrow gets to keep a GM plant.

[Demeter]

105. And the Loser Gets to Keep Two?

[Dr.Phool]

108. Nah, they get an Amway franchise and a Super Mall-Wart.

[UpInArms]

94. From the "Duh!" Dept: Households to cut Christmas gifts spending: survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4AK5EY20081121

Friday, as the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression erodes consumer wealth.

The Conference Board's Christmas gift spending intentions survey covering 5,000 households found that consumers were in a less-generous mood, planning to spend an average of $418 on presents, compared with last year's estimate of $471. The survey was conducted in November.

"This is shaping up to be one of the most challenging holiday seasons in years and it's going to take more than the usual discounts and incentives from retailers to get consumers to spend more freely," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer research center.

The U.S. housing market's collapse has contaminated both the domestic and overseas economies, triggering the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

...more...

[Dr.Phool]

95. "The Duh Dept". Always right on top of things.

[Dr.Phool]

96. European stocks slide 2.8 pct in broad selloff

PARIS, Nov 21 (Reuters) - European stocks slipped in a broad selloff on Friday, falling for the seventh day in nine sessions, with fresh fears over the financial sector knocking down banking shares such as Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

Pharmaceutical stocks, which had been resilient over the past few weeks, took a beating with Novartis (NOVN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) down 6.4 percent and Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) falling 11 percent.

The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top European shares unofficially closed 2.8 percent lower at 759.06 points after hitting a low of 750.48. The index lost 11.7 percent on the week, its third consecutive week of losses, amid rising concerns over the prospect of a deep global downturn.

"Beyond worrying about recession and corporate results, people have now started to worry about balance sheets, and not just banks' balance sheets," said Benoit De Broissia, analyst at KBL Richelieu, in Paris.

Renewed fears over the future of stricken Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) knocked European financial shares lower, with SocGen plummeting 13.4 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALL65062520081121?rpc=44

[Demeter]

97. Daewoo to cultivate Madagascar land for free

WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE TO COMMUNICATE


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e894c6a-b65c-11dd-89dd-0000779fd18c.html



Daewoo Logistics of South Korea said it expected to pay nothing to farm maize and palm oil in an area of Madagascar half the size of Belgium, increasing concerns about the largest farmland investment of this kind.

The Indian Ocean island will simply gain employment opportunities from Daewoo’s 99-year lease of 1.3m hectares, officials at the company said. They emphasised that the aim of the investment was to boost Seoul’s food security. “We want to plant corn there to ensure our food security. Food can be a weapon in this world,” said Hong Jong-wan, a manager at Daewoo. “We can either export the harvests to other countries or ship them back to Korea in case of a food crisis.”

Daewoo said it had agreed with Madagascar’s government that it could cultivate 1.3m hectares of farmland for free when it signed a memorandum of understanding in May. When the company signed the contract in July, it agreed to discuss costs with Madagascar. But Daewoo now believes it will have to pay nothing.

“It is totally undeveloped land which has been left untouched. And we will provide jobs for them by farming it, which is good for Madagascar,” said Mr Hong. The 1.3m hectares of leased land is almost half the African country’s current arable land of 2.5m hectares...

..............

Apart from Daewoo, an increasing number of South Korean companies are venturing into Madagascar, investing in projects from nickel mines to power plants. State-run Korea Resources recently signed a preliminary agreement with Madagascar to expand collaboration on resources development including mining projects for other metals.

Daewoo plans to start maize production on 2,000 hectares from next year and gradually expand it to other parts of the leased land. The company plans to plant maize on 1m hectares in the western part of Madagascar and oil palm trees on 300,000 hectares in the east.

The company plans to ship the bulk of the harvests back to South Korea and export some supplies to other countries. It is unclear if any of the production will remain in Madagascar, an impoverished nation where the World Food Programme provides food relief to about 600,000 people – about 3.5 per cent of the population.

The WFP, the UN agency in charge of emergency food relief, said more than 70 per cent of Madagascar’s population lives below the poverty line. “Some 50 per cent of children under three years of age suffer retarded growth due to a chronically inadequate diet,” it said....

[AnneD]

110. England did that very successfully once....

until the potato famine hit Ireland hard. It will make the Madagascar natives tenants in their own land.

[Demeter]

150. They Tried that Here, Too

With mixed results.

[AnneD]

155. You are right!

Most folks fail to remember. The difference was that America was an undiscovered unclaimed country. Madagascar, like Ireland was/is it's own country.

[Dr.Phool]

99. GM to return 2 leased jets. Ford and Chrysler say "Huh?"

GM to return two leased jets amid criticism
Luxury travel arrangements of top exec criticized at bailout hearing

DETROIT - General Motors Corp will return two of its leased corporate jets amid intense criticism in Washington this week on the luxury travel arrangements of its chief executive even as the company pleads for federal aid.

CEO Rick Wagoner was in the capital to testify on the company’s dire financial situation but his testimony was overshadowed by irate lawmakers who blasted him for flying on a private jet to ask for public funds and failing to make personal sacrifices in exchange for federal assistance.

Chief executives from Ford Motor Co, and Chrysler LLC, who were also there to plead for $25 billion in federal aid, came under fire too for flying to Washington in private jets.
(snip)
A Chrysler spokesman said the automaker also leases or charters jets. He, however, declined to comment on whether the company was rethinking the use of private jets for executive travel, saying it was a “private matter.”

Ford did not have an immediate comment on its corporate jet policy.

According to Ford’s proxy, CEO Mulally’s compensation included $752,203 in 2007 for personal use of company aircraft.

About two years ago, the head of Ford’s North American operations, Mark Fields, gave up use of a corporate jet for personal travel to his home in Florida after the arrangement came under criticism at a time when the automaker was losing billions and slashing jobs.

He now flies first class on commercial planes.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27842195/

[CatholicEdHead]

103. At this point all the execs need to fly coach or ride Greyhound or Amtrack

to make up for this past week.

[Dr.Phool]

104. If Amtrak has been good enough for Biden all these years,

It's good enough for them.

Or they could try driving one of their vehicles. Themselves.

[specimenfred1984]

114. That sums it up, criminals who think they are better than everyone else

trying to loot the U.S. taxpayer and bribe officials. As usual, the criminals "change their ways" only after being caught.

[wordpix]

158. "Gimme that gov. bailout money so I don't have to ride Amtrak with its crummy infrastructure"

Yeah, I hope these corporate whores get what's coming and I hope Amtrak adds more cars, more rail lines and fixes its service issues.

[Roland99]

115. Markets back in black after a dip into the red

3pm hour going to be a wild one?

[CatholicEdHead]

116. It usually is, the last 60min but even more so the last 30min

have often determined the overall day outcome recently.

[Mojorabbit]

117. Look at gold go.. nt

[JNelson6563]

118. Damn Skippy!

Astounding numbers for gold and the 10 yr. An 18 pt increase in the yield? Run for your lives and take all your gold with you!

Nice work on the thread this crazy week Marketeers!

Julie

[specimenfred1984]

119. Bargain hunters lift stocks, but Citi sinks (Reuters)

Yes, it's all the rage on Yahoo news so it must be true! Reuters would never spew Orwellian propaganda pablum for the masses would they?

[Dr.Phool]

120. Just your usual 140pt swing in 5 minutes.

If Citi is still around on the 1st, when I get my check, I'm buying the whole company. Screw that GM and Ford stuff.

[specimenfred1984]

122. DOW up 300 points in 10 minutes

Those "bargain hunters" sure do act all at once, I guess "bargains" became apparent to them at 3pm when throughout the rest of the day, stocks at the same price were not "bargains". LOL.

[Changenow]

123. Maybe it will go up 1000!

Someone must be fooled by this, but who?

[Ghost Dog]

134. And continue to see bargains all the way up the incline, see;

unless they just put in 'buy at market price (whatever that is) orders for the rest of the day...

Ah, USA. There is now such a disconnection... Must be so difficult for most Americans to see and understand the degree to which most of the rest of the world is now, and sadly, turning their backs on you. While at the same time, mostly, I reckon, hoping that Mr. Obama and his team can give them good reason to turn again. You really need to clean house (and heads)... You know.

[DemReadingDU]

121. Tim Geithner to be Secretary Treasury

discussing on CNBC

Maria B, Steve L. and John Harwood.

John Harwood says Geithner has been in thick with paulson.

Uh oh.

edit: The market likes him though.

Here's a link

11/21/08
Barring last minute changes, the nominee for Treasury Secretary will be NY Fed President Tim Geithner -- a career Treasury official under both Bob Rubin and Larry Summers -- who actually had worked at the Treasury in three administrations under five Secretaries -- going back to 1988.

Geithner has been a key player in the current economic crisis -- helping Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and his team manage the wall street bailout.

Former Treasury Secretary Summers -- also considered for the post -- might still play a major future role in the Obama administration, according to sources. Summers came under fire from women's groups because of controversial comments he made about gender issues while President of Harvard, but sources say the decision to choose Geithner had more to do with Obama's interest in "change" and getting someone new on the team.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/21/1685124.aspx

[Changenow]

124. Thick with Paulson

Why not just keep Paulson?

Things aren't looking up.

[Dr.Phool]

129. Change we can make believe in!

[specimenfred1984]

125. I don't have the details of this particular story but msnbc is full of lying whores

Do yourself a favor and don't believe anything said on that TV/corporate whorespew network. The "story" was probably being hyped by them as a "rumor trigger" for yet another late-day fraudulent "rally".

[Hugin]

139. All the way back to Poppy..."going back to 1988"

C'mon! There's -got- to be someone either newer or older who -wasn't- part of the Supply-side Reaganomical
BS who could be chosen.

[Dr.Phool]

128. Starting to turn sour. only up 255 now.

They must have found out that my check to buy Citi didn't clear.

[KayLaw]

132. And ten minutes later . . .

It's over 500. Crazy times.

[erinlough]

137. Someone once described it to me using this illustration:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0Fi1VcbpAI

[specimenfred1984]

131. The "uncertainty" wasn't who the next Treasury Sec. is going to be

it's fear of the culture of corruption that's looting America. As another DUer posted a few minutes ago "It takes a special kind of stupid to blame the Obama admin before they are even in power". Same goes for a fraud stock market rally based on an Obama appointment.

[mrdmk]

133. Mr. Bush and Co must have been praying (paying) to the Wall Street Gods

It is over 8000 points for the weekend. Amazing.:smoke:

[Ghost Dog]

135. Back to work behind the scenes for the weekend.

:smoke: :beer:

Have a good one. :hi:

[CatholicEdHead]

138. Finished up 494 points, most of it in the last hour

:crazy:

[Dr.Phool]

143. Well, we'll be turning the mic over to Demeter shortly.

Cocktails tonight, and coffee and donuts in the morning.

[Ghost Dog]

147. Ok. I'll do it. Closing US Market Numbers and Record, I think, Volume (Ah, 'leadership'):

:sarcasm:

Dow 8,046.42 Up 494.13 (6.54%)
Nasdaq 1,384.35 Up 68.23 (5.18%)
S&P 500 800.03 Up 47.59 (6.32%)
10-Yr Bond 3.1670% Up 0.0230
NYSE Volume 10,660,272,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,172,482,000

4:30 pm : Thanks to a late-session surge, the stock market closed at its session high with a gain of 6.3%. Though the rally was impressive, stocks still finished the week 8.4% lower due to heavy losses earlier in the week.

Those heavy losses prompted bargain hunters to bid stocks higher. Whether the push was merely rooted in short-term interest or marked a true turning point for the stock market will only be seen in time.

The move was supported by relatively heavy volume. Nearly 2.4 billion shares traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange this session, compared with average volume of 1.5 billion shares this month.

Despite the strong finish, stocks traded in mixed fashion throughout much of the session, and struggled to find direction. During that time the financial sector stood out as a notable laggard. At one point the financial sector was down 7.5%, which marked the sector's lowest level since 1995. However, it finished 3.4% higher.

Weakness in the financial sector stemmed from the large-cap names included among other diversified financial services companies (-3.8%), such as Citigroup (C 3.75, -0.96). Speculation continues to surround Citi's fate. Reports indicate the financial services giant is weighing its strategic options, but the stock extended its downturn and fell through the prior session's low to its worst level since 1992.

While financials lagged, energy posted the largest advance. Energy finished the session 11.7% higher. A 2% rebound in crude oil futures helped give energy a lift. Crude settled around $50.40 per barrel, though it actually fell to a new multiyear low of $48.25 per barrel midway through the session.

It appeared that Dell (DELL 9.30, -0.51) was going to provide stocks with some support after it posted better-than-expected earnings per share results for the third quarter. However, shares fell under pressure as investors and analysts critiqued the quarterly report.

The tech sector still finished with a 5.8% gain, though, thanks largely to strength among large-cap tech stocks.

The renewed interest in stocks caused Treasuries to fall substantially, especially at the long end of the curve. The 10-year Note fell 49 ticks, while the 30-year Bond dropped 117 ticks. The downturn reverses some of the gains Treasuries made in the prior session.

Investors got a little bit of clarity regarding the future face of the Treasury team; President-Elect Obama has nominated New York Fed President Geitner for Treasury Secretary. Obama is expected to announce the rest of his economic team Monday.DJ30 +494.13 NASDAQ +68.23 NQ100 +4.7% R2K +5.5% SP400 +5.9% SP500 +47.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1781/3.12 bln/1170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2019/2.37 bln/975

3:30 pm : Stocks recently charged higher to their best levels of the session. The advance took the stock market to a gain of 3.1%. There was some renewed selling pressure, but after a brief pause stocks are trying to extend their gains.

The financial sector continues to underperform, though it is off its low of the session. It traded with a loss of 7.5% for a time, but is now down 1.8%. DJ30 +216.64 NASDAQ +26.56 SP500 +20.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1253/2.28 bln/1662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1463/1.55 bln/1509

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade listlessly in choppy action. Each of the major indices looks for direction as market participants enter the final hour of the session. Only once this week have stocks managed to close higher.

Stocks were up 2.8% at their session high. They were down 1.5% at their session low. The wide swings have been common during recent sessions. In the last three weeks stocks have swung in excess of 5% in six separate sessions. Stocks swung more than 1% in 12 different sessions during the last three weeks.

Just hitting the wires, Tim Geitner will be the new Treasury Secretary under the Obama administration.DJ30 +12.10 NASDAQ -6.75 SP500 +0.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 876/2.12 bln/1872 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1103/1.47 bln/2059

2:30 pm : Action remains choppy in afternoon trade. After making a sudden, sharp downturn, stocks struggle to move back to higher ground.

Trading remains without leadership. The flagging financial sector is down 5%. Earlier this session it fell to a new record low. The financial sector was down 70% year-to-date at that low.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview

[Ghost Dog]

154. Reuters Account:

RPT-TOPWRAP 11-Geithner rallies stocks but Citi still ailing
Fri Nov 21, 2008 6:02pm EST

Trading will never be the same.

* Stocks surge after NY Fed chief is tipped for Treasury

* Pelosi vows action on auto rescue, stimulus package

* Citigroup stock loses another 20 percent as board meets

* Euro zone business surveys hit record low

* Japan keeps rates on hold, says outlook uncertain (For more stories on the financial crisis click )

By Daniel Trotta

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - President-elect Barack Obama wants New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner as his Treasury secretary, news that sparked a stock market surge on Friday and fostered confidence that Obama may be taking up the U.S. economic reins before his inauguration in January.

A senior Democrat told Reuters in Washington that Obama favors Geithner for the Treasury job, but had yet to make an offer. NBC News and The Wall Street Journal reported Geithner will be named when Obama unveils his economic team early next week, boosting stocks, which had been dragged down by fears over the financial health of Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

Geithner has overseen much of the financial industry based in New York and was active in emergency measures taken by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and outgoing Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. He was seen as a favorite of the markets.

"It is a brilliant pick, for no other reason than that it creates continuity in the middle of one of the greatest crises to ever face this country," said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at UBS Securities in Stamford, Connecticut. .

When the news broke an hour before the close of New York stock trading, it turned a flat Dow Jones industrial average .DJI into a 6.5 percent gain the day after the broader market slumped to an 11-year low amid signs of deep recession. <.N>

It appeared to be a rare bit of optimism in the greatest world financial crisis since the 1930s Great Depression. In Europe, new data showed euro zone demand plunged, and world central bankers considered the prospect of deflation as the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate at just 0.3 percent, saying the road to recovery would be long.

Amid a power vacuum in Washington, with Obama not taking over from George W. Bush until Jan. 20, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi pledged support for a U.S. stimulus package and aid for sputtering U.S. carmakers.

Obama's cabinet choices were shaping up further, with The New York Times reporting that Sen. Hillary Clinton had accepted the position of secretary of State.

The Geithner news even helped Citigroup, whose stock recovered from a 35 percent fall to end down 20 percent, temporarily at least stopping a plummet over concerns the bank would sell major businesses to restore its health and investor confidence.

Chief Executive Vikram Pandit told employees he would not break up the company, whose board was meeting on Friday.

Many analysts said swift government action was needed to save Citi, possibly this weekend, much the way Paulson and Bernanke have intervened in recent months with Geithner at their side.

"There are two choices: one is you sell the company into what is perceived to be stronger hands, or you go to the government and get a massive bailout," said Paul Harris, a portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management in Toronto.

"I think the Treasury is going to exert itself some time over the next few days. This just cannot go on," added Nancy Bush, an analyst at NAB Research in New Jersey.

PELOSI STEPS UP

Pelosi also vowed congressional help for the auto industry, saying "doing nothing is not an option" and that she was prepared to call the House back into session in December.

Pelosi also told reporters that passage of a broad economic stimulus bill, including tax cuts, will be a top priority of the next Congress when it convenes in January.

The European Commission was working on its own stimulus plan that would include a significant budgetary expansion for European Union members, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said.

The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers composite index, which covers the manufacturing and services sectors, tumbled to a record low of 39.7 in November.

That added to expectations the European Central Bank will cut rates by at least a half percentage point when it meets in December.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs forecast more pain, estimating real U.S. gross domestic product would fall 5 percent on an annual basis in the current quarter, with unemployment reaching 9.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

A 5 percent contraction would be the largest since the first quarter of 1982, when the economy shrank 6.4 percent on an annualized basis.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said he was on watch for the risk of deflation as Japan lapses into recession, although he did not forecast its return.

"The global economy is expected to experience a severe adjustment for some time," he told reporters. (Reporting by Reuters bureaus around the world; Writing by Daniel Trotta; Editing by Dan Grebler)

© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2150151120081121?rpc=44&sp=true