STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 12 February (#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday February 12, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 347
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 62 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 114 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 326
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 810
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 11, 2004

Dow... 10,737.70 +123.85 (+1.17%)
Nasdaq... 2,089.66 +14.33 (+0.69%)
S&P 500... 1,157.76 +12.22 (+1.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.02% -0.08 (-1.97%)
Gold future... 410.70 +3.70 (+0.91%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Scott Middleton - "Appropriate"

Greenspan’s description of U.S. interest rates was in stark contrast with the theme made just two weeks ago. Today’s remarks boosted speculation U.S. yields will remain lower than in the euro region and other major economies such as the U.K., driving the U.S. Dollar to within a cent of a record low versus the euro. The testimony today before the House Financial Services Committee indicated that the dollar’s decline should eventually help contain our current account deficit and noted, “Looking forward, the prospects are good for the sustained expansion of the U.S. economy, however risks remain.” Plenty of sound bites for the market watchers to trade debt, dollars and commodities, and trade they did.

<cut>

In other earnings news, Dow component Coca-Cola reported its fourth quarter net income of 38 cents a share, with revenues of $5.18 billion, ahead of analyst forecasts of $5.03 billion. Corporate earnings continue to impress investors, however, one must be careful as many of the companies showing strong numbers are multination companies that have benefited greatly from the precipitous drop in the US Dollar versus foreign currencies, Coca-Cola included. Looking to tomorrow Dell reports their much anticipated and talked about earnings report. <cut>

Treasuries

U.S. Treasury prices turned higher after the Fed chief told lawmakers the central bank could be patient because inflation remains low. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note closed up 23/32 at 101 26/32 to yield 4.02 percent vs. 4.13 percent at the previous U.S. close.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Spentastic]

2. Dollar

I'm in the U.K and I'm coming on holiday soon. If this carries on I'll be a millionaire over there.

[ClintonTyree]

3. Lucky you..............

my daughter and I were planning a trip to Europe this coming summer, but have now postponed those plans indefinitely. I'd be in the poor house before we reached Italy. I told her we'd have to wait until a Democrat was back in the White House. Hopefully that won't be too long! ;-)

[freestatevet]

8. Please! Come and spend

you money! It will help the economy. Hopefully, the people who make their living off of tourism will have a great summer this year with many tourists coming from Europe!

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Marketeers!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

The money pages say that we are going to see the market numbers go even higher. I'll take that with a shaker of salt as early reports tend to be wrong about 50% of the time.

So how is Greenman's dollar-plummeting-policy working for you? Personally, I feel quite relieved that with the extra pennies I am making off inflated stock prices - this will somehow defray the cost of soaring energy prices. Gasoline is now $1.63 in my neighborhood and the natural gas bill just came (but I am afraid to open the envelope just yet). Perhaps I can sell part of my portfolio to buy next month's groceries. No worries - I'm sure a job will fall into my lap any day now.

But I digress.

Wall Street Seen Extending Gains

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were set to open firmer on Thursday, building on gains made after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spurred blue chips to a 32-month high on Wednesday.

Investors are also awaiting some of the last results from the fourth-quarter, as well as retail sales data, jobless claims and business inventories numbers for the latest indications on the health of the world's largest economy.

Greenspan told a House of Representatives committee the U.S. economy was growing vigorously but reassured investors that no interest rate is imminent. (huh?)

more here...

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 85.13 Change -0.07 (-0.08%)

related articles:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/newswire/2004/02/11/rtr1257100.html

Dollar hammered by Greenspan remarks

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - The dollar tumbled across the board on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan dismissed worries about the weakening currency, saying it has had a muted impact on inflation.

"Greenspan was a sell signal for the dollar on two grounds: firstly by shifting expectations for the trajectory of monetary policy and secondly by making a virtue of a weaker dollar," said Marc Chandler, currency strategist at HSBC Bank in New York.

The Fed chief, in his semi-annual report on monetary policy to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, said the inflationary impact of the dollar's slide had been minimal so far because foreign exporters were hedging their profit margins and so were not passing on higher prices to U.S. consumers.

He also put pressure on the dollar when he said its decline should help narrow the bulging U.S. current account gap and gave no hint that U.S. interest rates were likely to move up from 1 percent any time soon.

...more...

and

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=168582004

Sterling hammers dollar on Fed comments

ALAN Greenspan gave a bullish verdict on the future of the American economy yesterday, but again signalled that US interest rates are set to remain low - sending sterling rocketing against the dollar.

The pound jumped almost two cents, moving above $1.88 for the first time since 1992 as Greenspan, delivering his half-yearly assessment of the state of America, told Congress: "The prospects are good for sustained expansion of the US economy."

He added: "In retrospect, last year appears to have marked a transition from an extended period of sub-par economic performance to one of more vigorous expansion."

But this did not mean that interest rates were about to rise. "With inflation very low and substantial slack in the economy, the Federal Reserve can be patient in removing its current policy accommodation," he said, repeating his position of earlier this month, when he held US rates at 2 per cent.

His stance sat in stark contrast to remarks yesterday by the Bank of England governor Mervyn King. He said UK growth was "strong, and is expected to remain so", but signalled that rates will have to rise in an effort to keep a lid on inflation as GDP picks up.

By late evening yesterday sterling bought $1.8880, up from $1.869 on Tuesday night, as traders bet that UK rates will rise as US rates stay low. The pound has climbed 1.5 per cent, from $1.859, this week.

Lara Rhame, a senior foreign exchange economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, said Greenspan "seemed unconcerned at the dollar’s slide".

She highlighted his comments that, although the dollar exchange rate has fallen over the past year, "the decline generally has been gradual and no material adverse side effects have been visible in US capital markets".

The latest move in the dollar put a knife in any hopes that the G7 statement about exchange rates, made over the weekend, would help to stem the slide in the greenback.

...more...

Well, isn't that special? I guess it's time to revisit history so here are a couple more links that might shed some light on this mystery (to go into the future with this mal-administration, one merely has to revisit the past)

http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow092303.asp

Currency manipulation has an ugly history. Back in 1986-87, the NAM persuaded then-Treasury Secretary James Baker to pick a fight with Japan and Germany in order to make their currencies more expensive and the dollar cheaper. That piece of financial handiwork led to the October 1987 stock market crash and temporarily signaled the end of the Reagan boom.

In the late 1990s, the International Monetary Fund put big pressure on various Asian tiger economies to float their currencies. As soon as the tigers caved in, their currencies collapsed, along with their economies. The virus of financial disarray spread worldwide.

and

http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/bottomline/common/line_b.asp?issue=20030922

The communiqué calls for flexible exchange rates, which signals that Japan, which sold record sums of yen this year to stem its gains, will let the currency extend its rise as the economy pulls out of a 13-year slump. All of this sounds great, and is no doubt a big win for the U.S. National Association of Manufacturers, but it is highly destabilizing and therefore very risky. In playing these exchange-rate games, G-7 Ministers might well get more than they bargain for. It was the 1985 Plaza Accord to weaken the dollar, and the 1987 dollar-bashing comments of then- Treasury Secretary James Baker that triggered the stock market crash in October 1987. This is eerily reminiscent of just that time.

and

http://www.mises.org/econsense/ch74.asp

In reality, the dollar was high until early 1986 because foreigners had been unusually willing to invest in dollars-- purchasing government bonds as well as other assets. While this happy situation continued, they were willing to finance Americans in buying cheap imports. After early 1987, this unusual willingness disappeared, and the dollar began to fall in order to equilibrate the U.S. balance of payments. Artificially propping up the dollar in 1987 has led the other countries of the Group of Seven to purchase billions of dollars with their own currencies--a shortsighted effort which cannot last forever, especially because West Germany and Japan have fortunately not been willing to inflate their own currencies and lower their interest rates further, to divert capital from themselves toward the U.S.

Instead of realizing that this coordination game is headed toward inevitable crisis and collapse, Secretary of Treasury James Baker, the creator of the new system, proposes to press ahead to a more formal New Order. In his September speech to the IMF and World Bank, Secretary Baker proposed a formal, coordinated regime of fixed exchange rates, in which--as a sop to public sentiment for gold--gold is to have an extremely shadowy, almost absurd, role. In the course of fine tuning the world economy, the central banks and treasuries of the world, in addition to looking at various "indicators" on their control panels--price levels, interest rates, GNP, unemployment rates, etc.--will also be consulting a new commodity price index of their own making which, by secret formula, would also include gold.

I guess we shall see how long the BoJ is willing to sell yen for dollars and what effect it will have when everyone else seems willing to sell dollars.

Also, more important than watching the euro, watching the value of the British Sterling would tend to give more of an historical pattern - the euro is too new of a currency to have the charting abilities needed to show where we are headed.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

12. Great articles UIA

Unfrigginbelievable, Kudlow actually makes the case for the old '99 EU, UN calls for some type of change in the system of floating currency. In his own twisted way, that is. I have a feeling it was unintentional though.

[ozymandius]

6. I must leave for the day.

Family flew into town yesterday and much activity is planned. My son and I have to be out the door in a little while. I bid you farewell Marketeers. Have fun at the Casino.

See you in the morning.

Ozymandius :hi:

[UpInArms]

7. Have a terrific day

with your family, Ozy! :hi:

[UpInArms]

9. markets are open

and down

Dow 10,705.55 -32.15 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,083.52 -6.14 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,154.91 -2.85 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.023% +0.002

[54anickel]

10. But, but, but the pundits said it was all set to go up, up and away! n/t

[UpInArms]

11. just wait 'til Greenspin talks up the markets

again today :D

blather report says:

9:45AM: Indices open lower in line with futures indications...slightly disappointing news from the New Claims and Retail Sales reports have added to slight selling pressures after yesterday's big gains...Fed Chairman Greenspan will testify to the Senate today, starting at 10:00 ET, but will say essentially the same thing as yesterday...

guess they were expecting those 3.8 million new jobs to kick in!

[54anickel]

13. You mean they didn't kick in? Thought that was a sure thing.

[54anickel]

14. Fuzzy Math

http://www.smartmoney.com/decision2004/index.cfm?story=20040211&nav=ibs

snip>
The effort kicked off over the weekend when Bush devoted his entire Saturday radio address to the state of the labor market. Not only did he applaud the 112,000 workers added to payrolls in January and the dip in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, but he also urged Congress to hand over $250 million to fund job-training programs at community colleges.

snip>
"Have the tax cuts helped economic growth over the past three years? The answer is yes," says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City in Cleveland. "The larger question is, was this the most efficient way of stimulating economic activity? I think the answer has to be no."

DeKaser argues that one-time tax refunds like those issued in 2001 and 2003 tend to be saved rather than spent, which doesn't jolt the economy in the short term. In addition, he says, lowering tax brackets doesn't necessarily provide significant stimulus because the lion's share of the benefit goes to wealthier tax payers, who tend to hoard more than middle- and low-income earners.

The president's economic report also makes weighty predictions for 2004 and beyond, though some of the figures are raising eyebrows. In particular, the estimate for the number of jobs that'll be created this year appears well off the mark.

"The administration's forecast strikes me as unrealistically optimistic," says DeKaser.

The report projects that 2.6 million jobs will be created in 2004, an ambitious goal considering that just 112,000 positions were added in January, an amount not even large enough to keep pace with population growth. To meet Bush's projection, the economy would need to boost payrolls by well over 200,000 a month for the rest of the year, a pace that hasn't been seen since May 2000 . DeKaser points out that the forecast was based on data available in early December, though he still admits that the numbers aren't achievable even on that basis. However, if the business cycle picks up, DeKaser says, the forecast for another 3.6 million new jobs in 2005 is more realistic since a hot economy is capable of cranking out 300,000 jobs a month. More than two million jobs have been lost since Bush took office.

<endsnip>
Gotta love this line, seems everything is out of Shrubs control, so I gotta ask, WTF DOES he do? There is obviously some vast conspiracy out to destroy him. (Blame Clinton?) :eyes:

snip>
Bush echoed the sentiment in his appearances this week, adding that events largely beyond his control — corporate scandals, the stock-market crash, the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the subsequent invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan — conspired to hurt the economy and constrain hiring.

[UpInArms]

15. today's economic reports

Feb 12 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 02/07
actual 363K projected 340K market expected 345K last week 357K revised from 356K

Feb 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Jan
actual -0.3% projected 0.1% market expected 0.0% last month 0.2% revised from 0.5%

Feb 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Jan
actual 0.9% projected 0.8% market expecated 0.5% last month 0.2% revised from 0.1%

Feb 12 10:00 AM
Business Inventories Dec
actual 0.3% projected 0.4% market expected 0.3% last month 0.4% revised from 0.3%

The only other report due today is the Treasury Budget - due at 2:00 EST

you can find these reports at

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

16. more of the USDJPY GENETIC ALGORITHMS

Thursday February 12, 2004 : SIGNAL : CLOSE SHORT USDJPY POSITION

At 14:37 hrs. european (spanish) time with USDJPY asked at 105.46 we have a SIGNAL TO CLOSE THE SHORT USDJPY POSITION.

Sunday February 08, 2004 . Weekly preview :

Above the Yen 106 level, the pressure from medium and long term downward players against the cross is so big, that no level of reasonable intervention seems able to counter it. In this situation the normal outcome is for the B.O.J. to give up and retake dollar defense under 103 . This is now the most probable scenary , and Yeneticus will act accordingly. The constant danger for our short positions : new interventions.

maybe if we watch these cryptic notes, eventually we can figure the language through which they communicate :)

[54anickel]

17. It will be interesting to "break the code". Sure has been showing up

a lot lately. It might have always been there, but I don't remember seeing it before and it certainly never got a hit on my usual google search pattern before yesterday.

I have always loved playing spy. B-)

[CaptainClark23]

19. Probable scenery and Yeneticus

We need to subpoena this Yeneticus guy....Who is he? When did he leave the Senate? Does he have Caesar's ear? Who does his togas?

and the scenery...was it really probable? Who knew about the scenery and when did they know it?!?

[54anickel]

20. Hey there Captain. Glad to see you stopping by. This thread is

running a bit slim these days. Marketeers are busy with other chores and the revolution. Besides there's just soooo much to keep up with in LBN as Bushco implodes.
:hi:

[54anickel]

18. 12:11 numbers update and blather

Dow 10,709.85 -27.85 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,081.68 -7.98 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,155.23 -2.53 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.007% -0.014


12:00PM: Stocks opened slightly lower and have stayed that way all morning...modest losses with a negative bias after yesterday's big gains are not surprising...the economic numbers this morning were slightly disappointing, but after Greenspan's comments yesterday that real GDP will rise 4 1.2% to 5% this year, a little volatility in short-term data is not going to change expectations greatly...the 10-year note is up 6/32 today to yield 4.007%, even though the $16 billion 10-year note auction is today...
a move below 4% would underline the bullish interest rate outlook for stocks..no Dow stocks are moving as much as $1...Disney (DIS 28.31 +0.71) is the biggest gain on continued takeover talk...NYSE Adv/Dec 1483/1585, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1330/1607

[UpInArms]

21. here's an interesting editorial

from Dr. Kurt Richebächer:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/home.cfm?loc=/body_headline.cfm&qs=id=3755

Assessing the present economic situation, it has to be realized that the Fed's persistent, unusually aggressive monetary ease was not prone to create pent-up demand. Implicitly, it had the exact opposite effect. Lured by extremely cheap and easy money, the consumer stampeded into an unprecedented borrowing binge to sustain even higher spending. While income growth from wages and salaries has literally collapsed since 2000, his spending is actually up 10% in real terms.

Following past recessions, as soon as the Fed eased, "pent-up" demand shot up almost immediately. But this time, with savings at a record low and consumer spending at a record high, the consumer already seems to have his regular post- recession spending binge behind him, rather than before him. This does not bode well for those who consider the U.S. to be on the road to self-sustaining and self- accelerating growth.

[54anickel]

22. One word summary - Unsustainable

For nearly a year now we've heard Greenspin praising the consumer spending and that it would soon be able to hand the torch over to corporations that will once again begin investing in their infrastructure. They've not taken up the torch yet and Greenspin still talks about excess capacity.

[54anickel]

23. 1:55 numbers update and more blather

Dow 10,698.73 -38.97 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,075.36 -14.30 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,152.50 -5.26 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.020% -0.001

1:30PM: Indices not showing any sign of potential rebound yet...losses are widespread, and leadership is lacking...internals remain weak...tomorrow, the trade balance numbers are out, as are export and import prices, but none of that will have much impact...more likely to move the market is the preliminary reading on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index at 9:45 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 1395/1769, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1219/1811

1:00PM: The market continues with a negative bias...the most notable sector in the red now is the semiconductor index (SOX 521.87 -4.94)...the banking index (BKX 1003.70 -3.63) is also down, as are the biotech (BTK 532.34 -1.40) and oil index (XOI 581.26 -1.26)...decliners are well ahead of advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq...NYSE Adv/Dec 1396/1726, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1208/1803



http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040212/021ea71498bfd141e3a17adc177fbd90_1.html

CBS MarketWatch
U.S. stock losses worsen in afternoon trade
Thursday February 12, 1:53 pm ET
By Susan Lerner


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stock losses deepened Thursday afternoon as a bag of mixed economic news gave investors a reason to take some money off the table after the previous session's rally.
"It was almost like a watch spring ... we wound and wound and wound and waited for Greenspan. Then when he said what they (investors) were waiting to hear, they repriced the market to a later (rather than sooner) interest rate increase," said Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Greenspan-No need for hedge fund SEC registration

http://www.forbes.com/markets/bonds/newswire/2004/02/12/rtr1258714.html

WASHINGTON, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday he did not believe hedge fund advisers should be registered by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

"I think that hedge funds -- which I would define as financial institutions in which investors are only of high-income levels -- the value of these institutions is to create a very significant amount of liquidity in our system," Greenspan said.

"And I think that while they have a reputation as being a sort of peculiar type of financial group, I think they've been very helpful to liquidity and hence internal flexibility of our financial system," he said in response to a question from the Senate Banking Committee.

more...

[UpInArms]

25. gosh, the terms

he used make it sound like these "hedge funds" might make up a part of the PPT.

[54anickel]

27. Well, they're definitely "SPECIAL"

:evilgrin:

[KoKo]

28. Another way for "persons of wealth" to grow their wealth cutting those of

us with Money Market funds and CD's out of the game. His comment is nauseating to me. It fits in with the Bush Admin. so well. Only "high rollers" with excellent connections in the financial world should be included in trading in Hedge Funds where one's enormous wealth can become come gargantuan.

[54anickel]

32. But gee KoKo1, if they let EVERYONE in on the game of

market manipulation, who would they be playing the game against?
<sarcasm off>

Good to see you again KoKo1! :hi:

[54anickel]

26. Greenspan Urges Reinstating Budget Rules - FUNNY GUY

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/ap/ap_story.html/Financial/AP.V5350.AP-Greenspan.html

WASHINGTON (AP)--Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Thursday Congress should reinstate budget rules that would force lawmakers to cover the estimated $1 trillion that it will cost to make President Bush's tax cuts permanent.

Greenspan said he favored reductions in government spending to pay for making the tax cuts permanent and suggested that one place to look should be in reducing the Social Security benefits paid to retirees.

Appearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Greenspan said he has been urging since the fall of 2002 that budget rules known as pay-go--which require any tax cuts or increases in government entitlement spending be paid for by either raising taxes in other areas or cutting government spending--be reinstated

more...

But according to this story posted in the Economic Forum, that tax cut will cost many times that.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=5725

Direct Link to story referenced:
http://www.robertreich.org/reich/20040204.asp

snip>
Not to worry, though. The President promises to cut the budget deficit in half over the next 5 years. But here’s the catch. You’ve heard of balloon clauses in loan agreements, haven’t you? A balloon clause says you start out paying back a little bit and then your payments increase until you’re walloped with huge payments later on. The President’s budget is like that. The really big-ticket items hit more than five years from now, starting in 2009.

Here’s one example. The White House admits that the ten-year cost of the new Medicare drug benefit will be more than half a trillion dollars. But what no one’s saying is that most of this kicks in after 2009, when the baby boomers begin retiring and taking advantage of the drug benefit.

Or consider the tax cuts. If they’re made permanent, as the President wants, the loss of revenues over the next ten years will be five and a half trillion dollars. And here’s the kicker: Most of this occurs after 2009. That’s because the tax cuts start out relatively small and grow.

[UpInArms]

33. oh Greenspin is so "special"

it makes me want to :puke:

Guess that O'Neill was right when he said no one should think that they were actually going to collect Social Security.

http://www.sonic.net/~doretk/Issues/01-09%20FALL/political.html

June 13, 2001

When a high-level government official calls for drastic changes in U.S. law, it ought to be big news. But in an interview reported by the Financial Times' Amity Shlaes (5/19/01 & 5/22/01), treasury secretary Paul O'Neill called for sweeping changes in U.S. tax and social policy, and some three weeks later, those statements have made hardly a ripple in the U.S. media. Most Americans have probably not heard a word about them.

In the interview, O'Neill called the current U.S. tax system "an abomination" that required changes to its "very structure." His preferred changes? O'Neill "absolutely" supports the elimination of taxes on corporations-- and the shifting of the tax burden to individuals, saying government would work better if it "collected taxes in a more direct way from the people."

He also called for the abolition of Social Security and Medicare, on the grounds that "able-bodied adults should save enough on a regular basis so that they can provide for their own retirement, and, for that matter, health and medical needs." In fact, O'Neill believes the U.S. should reconsider the whole purpose of taxation: "National defense is a federal responsibility," Shlaes paraphrases O'Neill as saying, "but all other outlays need review."

And O'Neill assured Shlaes he was not speaking only for himself: "Not only am I committed to working on this issue, the president is also intrigued about the possibility of fixing this mess."

http://www.fair.org/activism/o'neill.html

(edited for bad link :)

[54anickel]

34. Well, that explains why Cheney liked him.

And his mistake for spouting off in interviews and tipping Bushcos hand was the reason they had to let him go.

[54anickel]

29. One more Greenspin, If, It seems, I think, I believe, Apparently, etc

I give up?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/12/news/economy/greenspan.reut/

Greenspan: Job growth coming back

Fed chairman discusses job training and reiterates support for tax cuts in second day of testimony.
February 12, 2004: 1:27 PM EST



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Following are remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's question and answer session before a Senate panel Thursday, according to a transcript provided by FDCH, a Washington transcript service.

Greenspan's prepared remarks were identical to his speech the day before in front of a House panel.

On job growth:

"It seems very likely that the extraordinary pace of productivity is almost surely going to slow... "If history is any guide, we will have employment running back, expanding at a reasonably good clip within a short period of time."

On exporting jobs:

"I think our real concern should not be the question of whether or not trade is increasing internally or externally, I think we have to be very concerned about the fact that there are very substantial (numbers of) people who are obviously losing jobs not only because of trade but also because of internal productivity.


more...

[54anickel]

30. On off-shoring and out-sourcing

I remember posting this in a LBN thread, but not sure if I had posted it here in the SMW. If I did, I apologize for the redundancy, blame it on a senior moment.:P

http://www.mises.org/fullarticle.asp?control=1420&id=65
Clarifications on the Case for Free Trade

by Paul Craig Roberts



Free trade has necessary conditions. Today these conditions are not met. This point has escaped Joe Salerno and George Reisman (both writing on Mises.org), as it has a vast number of other people.

The case for free trade is based on David Ricardo’s principle of comparative advantage. Ricardo addressed the question how trade could take place between country A and country B (England and Portugal in his example) if country B was more efficient in the production of tradable goods (cloth and wine in his example) than A.

In other words, if Portugal could produce both cloth and wine at lower cost than England, how could trade between the countries benefit each?

Ricardo found the answer in relative or comparative advantage. He said that if Portugal specialized in wine, where its absolute advantage was greatest, and England specialized in cloth, where its disadvantage was least, total output would be higher than if both countries achieved self-sufficiency by producing both products. The higher productivity from specialization would result in mutual gains from trade.

more.....


And an article in rebuttal to the NYT piece that the above is from:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/nj/crook2004-01-21.htm

Protectionists come in two main varieties. The ordinary kind sees an increase in imports as a threat to American workers and wants barriers raised. This is bad economics, but at least the logic is simple and consistent. There is also a more upmarket kind of trade-basher. These flatter themselves that they take a more sophisticated view. They are not "old-fashioned protectionists," an insulting suggestion. Ordinarily, they would man the barricades for free trade. But they have noticed, and they say this reluctantly, that something has changed.

These anti-trade innovators insist they are committed to the principle of liberal trade. But unlike those who apply outdated generalizations to entirely new problems, they shrewdly perceive that the laws of economics have shifted. Some kinds of trade really do now pose a threat to American prosperity. Something must be done, although they are unsure exactly what—such is the novelty of the problem, and such is their instinctive revulsion at outright protectionism.

This second lot is more dangerous and more objectionable than the first—more dangerous because they are more plausible (reluctant converts improve the credibility of any cause, and people like up-to-the-minute ideas), and more objectionable because the air of sophistication and deep thinking is such a fraud. The new reasons for opposing liberal trade are just the same old reasons, smartened up with this season's accessories and a look of intellectual hauteur.

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35. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,694.07 -43.63 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,073.60 -16.06 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 1,152.11 -5.65 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.058% +0.037


3:53PM Bond Market Summary : Treasuries saw some decent whipsaw action today, spending much of the morning bid on disappointing retail sales and jobless claims reports. Mr. Greenspan and his interrogators in the Senate initially helped the market hang higher around the 4.01% level, but the uptick petered out heading into the ten-year auction. The auction was unimpressive, although indirect (read foreign central banks) participation was an impressive 45% vs the previous 24%, and it was also notable that primaries came in for a piddling amount. The fact that "the street doesn't want to own these should spook the market," noted one market maven, as more attention has been paid lately to the potential consequences of the foreign buying binges (for more on this, please see out recent Bond Column entitled "Economic Piñata"). The yen and euro were range-bound all day, with both improving slightly against the dollar. The market was chased lower into the close, with yields on the tens pushing up to 4.065% from 4.023%. The tens are currently -06/32nds yielding 4.056%; twos and threes are unch yielding 1.704% and 2.239% respectively; fives are -04/32nds yielding 3.058%; thirties are -15/32nds yielding 4.931%.

3:30PM: The indices deteriorate some headed into the close but continue to stick to today's tight trading range... Technology remains a weight on the broader market, with semiconductor, networking, computer hardware, and software trading lower... The blue chip issues, however, have not fared that much better... Banking and drug have lost ground in the afternoon and acted as a drag on the Dow and S&P 500... As the blue chip averages set new 52-week highs yesterday, some light profit-taking in today's session is certainly not surprising...SOX -0.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1467/1772, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1261/1858