STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 4

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday November 4, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 77
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2842 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2567 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2858
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 3, 2008

Dow... 9,319.83 -5.18 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq... 1,726.33 +5.38 (+0.31%)
S&P 500... 966.30 -2.45 (-0.25%)
Gold future... 726.80 +8.60 (+1.20%)
30-Year Bond 4.32% -0.05 (-1.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.90% -0.07 (-1.66%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Fudging, Fundamentals and the Electoral Cycle
BY ROB KIRBY

Anyone who’s paying attention has probably noticed that commodities prices have been, shall we say, volatile?

Most economists worth their salt will generally proffer opinions on the sometimes erratic moves in the prices of commodities based on their views of inflation, deflation or possibly even their perceptions regarding where we are in the business cycle.

.....

The use of manipulative derivatives has not been limited to the gold space. Just take a look at how incredibly “obedient” the oil price has been over the past two election cycles in the U.S.:

-see chart-

Just think of it; two price collapses in Crude Oil, each of them commencing – almost to the day – the same amount of time prior to November Elections in the U.S.A.

With U.S. elections out of the way tomorrow, it seems we can all look forward to a new Administration, a jolly holiday season and the likelihood of increased heating costs to keep us warm through the upcoming winter months.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

00:00 Auto Sales Oct
Briefing.com 4.5M
Consensus NA
Prior 4.3M

00:00 Truck Sales Oct
Briefing.com 5.5M
Consensus NA
Prior 5.3M

10:00 Factory Orders Sep
Briefing.com -1.0%
Consensus -0.8%
Prior -4.0%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

37. U.S. Sept. factory orders down 2.5% vs. 0.2% expected

03. U.S. Sept. factory orders ex-transportation down record 3.7%
10:00 AM ET, Nov 04, 2008

04. U.S. Sept. factory orders down 2.5% vs. 0.2% expected
10:00 AM ET, Nov 04, 2008

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices fall below $63 amid recession woes

BANGKOK, Thailand – Oil prices fell below $63 a barrel in Asia Tuesday after more evidence of a U.S. recession piled up and hopes China will prop demand waned.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell $1.24 to $62.62 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore. After rising above $69 per barrel in Asian trade Monday, light, sweet crude for December delivery tumbled $3.87 to settle at $63.91 overnight.

Monday's rally in crude oil futures proved short-lived after U.S. manufacturers reported lethargic activity numbers for October. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 38.9, the worst reading in more than a quarter century. Any reading below 50 signals contraction.

....

Adding to the gloomy outlook for the oil market, Credit Suisse cut its forecast for growth in China's oil demand next year to near zero from 4 percent on the back of lower economic growth forecasts.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 2.17 cents to $1.3408 a gallon, adding to a steep fall overnight. Heating oil fell 2.17 cents to $1.9611 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery fell 0.1 cent to fetch $6.837 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Brent oil price slides under $59 a barrel

LONDON (AFP) – The Brent crude oil price sank under 59 dollars per barrel on Tuesday on concerns over weak energy demand in Europe and the United States, dealers said.

Brent North Sea crude for December delivery plunged to 58.38 dollars in electronic trading, hitting the lowest point since February 2007.

The contract later stood at 58.89 dollars a barrel, down 1.59 dollars from the close on Monday.

....

Prices had dropped sharply on Monday, losing about four dollars as traders digested fresh evidence that pointed towards a sharp global economic slowdown.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081104/bs_afp/commoditiesenergyoilpricebrent_081104101928

[Roland99]

31. Reversing course now.

[Festivito]

5. Debt: 10/31/2008 10,574,094,462,968.20 (UP 43,201,429,190.00) (It's BACK!)

(Back to a big borrowing day. Had five little reports, then… boom again. CBS article yesterday, LINK BELOW, tried to say they had only borrowed 500B$ of $700B$ intended, instead of the 880B$ they did borrow. Remember to vote.)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3580248&mesg_id=3580628

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,302,793,747,598.97 + 4,271,300,715,369.26
UP 45,215,290,348.09 + DOWN 2,013,861,158.07
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle this many digits and zeroes the last digit -- the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 21,422,352,182.89.
The average for the last 30 days would be 14,995,646,528.02.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 22 reports in 31 days of FY2009 averaging 24.97B$ per report, 17.72B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 81 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 12.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/31/2008 10,574,094,462,968.20 GWB (UP 4,845,898,666,786.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 549,369,566,055.80 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $909,462,659,709.13 in last 43 days.
That's 909B$ in 43 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 89% of that highest year ever only in 43 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 43 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3580248&mesg_id=3580302

[DemReadingDU]

15. one day, wow!

That's more than Clinton borrowed in the entire FY2000!

Time to go vote out these guys who are ramping up our debt!

[Festivito]

55. 1 day of Bush is 3 times as bad as a year of Clinton's bad.

When they say both sides are the same, hit them with a 2x4.

[Festivito]

56. Debt: 11/03/2008 10,556,177,748,045.20 (DOWN 17,916,714,923.00) (Just monthly FICA.)

(Upped the private yesterday, downed the FICA today. Begining of month, time for SS payment cashing.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,302,221,478,108.20 + 4,253,956,269,937.01
DOWN 572,269,490.77 + DOWN 17,344,445,432.25
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 18,495,437,042.31.
The average for the last 30 days would be 12,330,291,361.54.
The average for the last 31 days would be 11,932,540,027.29.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 23 reports in 34 days of FY2009 averaging 23.11B$ per report, 15.63B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 78 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/03/2008 10,556,177,748,045.20 GWB (UP 4,827,981,951,863.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 531,452,851,132.80 so far this fiscal year.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $891,545,944,786.13 in last 46 days.
That's 892B$ in 46 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 88% of that highest year ever only in 46 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 46 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3582458&mesg_id=3582473

[ozymandius]

6. U.S. monthly sales of new vehicles at 25-year low

Despite heavy discounting and falling gas prices, U.S. monthly sales of new cars and trucks sunk to their lowest level in 25 years in October -- a depressing performance that foreshadows more intense financial losses, cash burns and production cuts for Detroit's automakers.

...

U.S. consumers, who have been rattled for months by the falling values of their homes and retirement savings, by political uncertainty and by a global financial crisis, bought just 838,156 new cars and trucks last month.

That is a breathtaking decline of 31.9% from the same month a year ago, and the second straight month below a million new car and truck sales.

Every major automaker posted double-digit declines. Sales plummeted 45.1% for General Motors Corp., 34.9% for Chrysler LLC, 33% for Nissan Motor Corp., 30.2% for Ford Motor Co., 25.2% for Honda Motor Co. and 23% for Toyota Motor Corp.

http://www.freep.com/article/20081104/BUSINESS01/811040370/1014

---

Industry officials say this is unsustainable.

[TalkingDog]

24. "unsustainable" No sh*t, Sherlock.

We need a World Mommy. You know; somebody who will step up to those fat little dumplings with their hands stuffed in the cookie jar and say, "No. No more. You have had enough. You are going to make yourself sick and I'll end up cleaning up after you."



Who forgot to teach these guys self-restraint?

[ozymandius]

7. Swiss Bank UBS Posts Third-Quarter Profit

PARIS -- The Swiss banking giant UBS on Tuesday reported a third-quarter net profit but warned that the outlook for the rest of the year was gloomy.

The bank, which is struggling to restore its business and reputation after it was mauled by the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market, reported net profit of 296 million Swiss francs ($252 million), compared with a year-earlier loss of 858 million francs. Operating income fell 38 percent to 5.6 billion francs.

....

UBS actually posted on Tuesday an operating loss of 480 million francs, but it said its results had been improved by a gain of 2.2 billion francs it booked on its own debt, as well as a tax credit of 913 million francs. It noted that the value of its debt has risen the bailout was announced, so it could end up having to book a loss on that item in the fourth quarter.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/business/05ubs.html?ref=business

[ozymandius]

8. Tokyo stocks sparkle in mixed region

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian markets were split on either side of breakeven Tuesday, with Japanese stocks pacing gains as exporters such as Toyota Motor Co. were spurred by the yen's weakness, while Australian shares cut losses after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 5.25%.

.....

The Nikkei 225 Average jumped 6.3% to end at 9,114.60, as trading resumed for the first time since Friday, when the benchmark tumbled 5%. The broader Topix index gained 5% to 910.70.

The S&P/ASX 200, which fell more than 2% earlier in the day, ended the day 0.2% lower at 4,215.10 in Sydney. The index narrowed losses as financials such as Westpac Banking Corp. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group rebounded after the Reserve Bank of Australia's sharper-than-expected interest rate cut. Economists widely expected a half-point cut.

....

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index reversed declines to end 0.3% higher at 14,384.34.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sydney-retreats-tokyo-rebounds-mixed/story.aspx?guid={58519CD1-F179-40CF-BC66-4B26666CAA32}&dist=msr_7

[ozymandius]

9. Mark-to-market manipulation

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Mark-to-market -- or fair-value -- accounting has one big problem: Some very powerful people are trying to change it.

A movement spurred by bankers including Aubrey Patterson, chief executive of Bancorpsouth Inc. and Wall Street power brokers including Blackstone Group Chief Stephen Schwarzman are arguing for at least a temporary suspension of Financial Accounting Standards Rule 157.

Patterson and other supporters argued for the rule's suspension in a Securities and Exchange Commission roundtable Oct. 29. Other critics of FAS 157 included Damon Silvers, AFL-CIO general counsel, and Bradley Hunkler, an insurance executive from Western & Southern Life.

....

What is FAS 157? It is the rule that has essentially put us in this credit crisis. FAS 157 requires banks to mark securities -- including collateralized debt obligations -- at the going price. In a nutshell, it requires financial firms to value securities on the balance sheet at the price they would fetch in the open market.

All of those write-downs you've been hearing about have come as a result of the demand that banks value securities composed of risky loans at market prices -- which, for a multitude of collateralized debt obligations, means zero.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/some-wall-street-want-return/story.aspx?guid={F1EE1BBC-4725-4D27-A7B5-4927392A5218}&dist=TNMostRead

---

I thought this nonsense about changing FAS 157 was dead.

[54anickel]

22. Wow, gotta love their attempt at justifying their stance. The trash is simply a bargain!

More from the article.....

snip>

Proponents of suspending the rule argue that a market price isn't a fair way to value these securities. If a worthless CDO of 1,000 loans is held to maturity, some of those loans will be repaid. In fact, many CDOs are performing with zero or small default rates, but they are deemed worthless because there is no place to trade them in the market. No one wants them.

Ultimately, what the proponents of the rule's suspension are saying is that there are two values, market value and maturity value. They say maturity value is what matters because market value can be tainted by panic.

It's like trying to sell Chinese-made toys that may be coated in lead paint. Sure, people aren't going to buy them because they're afraid they're going to give their kids brain damage. But you know Steve Schwartzman is at Toys "R" Us stocking up. Those are perfectly good toys, he thinks. He doesn't see lead. He sees gold.

snip>

If these devalued mark-to-market assets are really so valuable -- or will be -- why aren't Patterson, Schwarzman and others out there buying them all up at pennies on the dollar?

[tclambert]

10. Additional numeric indicators that may influence the financial sector:

Dixville Notch: Obama 15, McCain 6
Hart's Location: Obama 17, McCain 10, Paul 2

That's 64% for Obama, 32% for McCain, 4% for Paul

[Demeter]

45. Unbelievable! NH Rabid Conservatives Voting Obama!

Let's go see if they're ice skating in hell, yet.

[ozymandius]

11. Worst Markets in Three Decades Hang Over Elections (Update1)

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. voters are heading to the polls with stock and bond markets mired in the worst slump in three decades.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped farther and faster than any time since the administration of Gerald Ford, losing 38 percent from an all-time high last year. Corporate bonds slid the most last month in at least 32 years as bank losses topped $680 billion and consumer confidence hit an all-time low.

The winner between Democrat Barack Obama, who leads in national polls, and Republican John McCain will contend with an economy battered by declining corporate profits and the highest unemployment in five years. Concern growth is slowing sent the S&P 500 down 17 percent last month, the most since 1987.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=acB_3iWuVw5M&refer=economy

[ozymandius]

12. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Advance; Citigroup, Alcoa, GM Climb

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures advanced as MasterCard Inc. reported better-than-estimated earnings and lower money-market rates lifted financial companies.

MasterCard, the world's second-biggest credit-card company, rallied as much as 9.1 percent in after-hours trading as third- quarter profit exceeded projections on higher overseas revenue. Citigroup Inc., the second-biggest U.S. bank, increased 2.6 percent in Europe as interbank lending rates in Asia and Europe declined. Alcoa Inc. and General Motors Corp. climbed at least 3 percent before today's presidential elections.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in December added 2.1 percent to 989.80 as of 11:47 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 2 percent to 9,514 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures advanced 2.4 percent to 1,373.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a6YT2y5VD9hw&refer=us

[DemReadingDU]

14. Market pumpers

Maybe they're trying to persuade those few undecided voters that the economy isn't really that bad.

:shrug:

[nichomachus]

13. One slight correction

The stock market comparisons between 2001 and 2008 don't account for inflation. Measured in today's dollars -- even using the phony stats from the Bush Crime Family -- the 2001 stock market was at $13,166. So, the drop from that to $9,319 is a decrease of 29 percent.

Bush and his cronies have tanked the market by almost one-third.

[ozymandius]

16. WTF? Fed Hires Bear Stearns Risk Chief...To Supervise Bank Soundness

You cannot make this stuff up. From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's web site:

Michael Alix has been named a senior vice president in the Bank Supervision Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He will serve as a senior advisor to William L. Rutledge, executive vice president, Bank Supervision Group....

Most recently, Mr. Alix worked for the Bear Stearns Companies, Inc., where he served as chief risk officer from 2006-2008 and global head of credit risk management from 1996-2006. His prior experience included eight years at Merrill Lynch & Company where he was a director, Asia chief credit officer and a vice president, head of North America financial institutions credit. He began his career with the Irving Trust Company where he served as an assistant vice president and lending officer.

As John Carney of Clusterstock, who found this remarkable tidbit, noted:

We suppose that Alix at least has plenty of experience with unsound banking institutions. He was the chief risk officer of Bear Stearns from 2006 until 2008. So, basically, he was the guy on the mast charged with yelling "iceberg" just before the Titantic introduced its bow to a floating hunk of ice.

more at Naked Capitalism

[natrat]

20. they are wrecking the system on purpose, their actions just an excercise in plausable deniability

[UpInArms]

17. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.675 Change -0.888 (-1.14%)

US Dollar, Japanese Yen to Weaken as Risk Appetite Returns (Candlestick Weekly)

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Dollar__Japanese_Yen_to_1225790872860.html

Yen to weaken as capital leaves safe-haven assets

The Yen continued to gain ground as risk aversion fueled by fears of a global economic slowdown swept across the markets. Most recently, we have seen modest normalization on stock exchanges produce a bounce to test support-turned-resistance at 99.12. This level also coincides with a downward-sloping trend line connecting the highs since late September. If our broad scenario calling for a corrective rebound in risky assets proves correct, the Yen should lose ground as the perennial safe-haven forex outlet. To that effect, we will remain on the sidelines for the time being as we see how the bulls reconciles their present hurdle.



...more...

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing on Tap, Will the Dollar Give Back?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/trading_news_reports/U_S__ISM_Non_Manufacturing_on_Tap__1225800782529.html



September 2008 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

Service sector activity in the U.S. expanded for the second straight month, but grew at a slower pace as the ISM index inched lower to 50.2 from 50.6 in August. A deeper look into the report showed that prices paid fell for the fourth straight month to 70.0 from 72.9, while new orders increased to 50.8 from 49.7. Furthermore, export orders unexpectedly jumped to 50.5 from 44.5, but the downturn in the global economy may weigh on demands over the coming months as the major economies throughout the world find themselves in troubled waters. Moreover, the employment component edged lower to 44.2 from 45.4, which suggests that domestic demands may remain subdued throughout the rest of the year as labor demands falter.

August 2008 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

The ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly improved to 50.6 from 49.5 in July on the back of falling oil prices. The summary of the report showed that the prices paid component declined for the second straight month to 72.9 from 80.8, while new orders increased to 49.7 from 47.9. Meanwhile, export orders fell for the fourth consecutive month to 44.5 from 47.5, which was followed by a decline in the employment component to 49.7 from 51.9. Despite the surprising improvement in the headline reading, ongoing weakness in the labor market paired with fading demands from the global economy could weigh on the economy, which could lead the Fed to lower the benchmark interest rate in the coming months as growth prospects deteriorate.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

47. Dollar falls ahead of US election result, rates eyed

Tue Nov 4, 2008 12:11pm EST NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The dollar endured its biggest one-day drop against a basket of currencies in 13 years on Tuesday with investors betting global interest rate cuts, which would typically boost the U.S. currency, will stimulate growth and alleviate the global financial crisis.

Trade was subdued as the U.S. went to the polls. A victory by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is seen as dollar positive, given he could have an easier time passing his agenda through the Democrat-controlled Congress, but analysts said that has been largely priced in.

...

Midway through the New York session, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit's value against a basket of currencies, traded down 2.4 percent at 84.678 .DXY, its largest one-day percentage drop since September 1995 at current prices.

The euro was up 2.6 percent against the dollar at $1.2979 <EUR=>, on track for its biggest one-day gain since it was launched in 1999 at current prices.

The dollar was up 1.2 percent at 100.29 Japanese yen <JPY=> while the the euro was up 3.8 percent at 130.21 yen <EURJPY=>.

The Australian dollar <AUD=> bounced back from an early fall after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 75 basis points to 5.25 percent, more than the expected 50 basis points. It last traded up 3.1 percent at U.S.$0.6994.

...

Though an Obama victory was seen as marginally more dollar positive, even a surprise win by Republican John McCain could be supportive for the dollar, some analysts said.

"In the broader picture, the fact that (President George W.) Bush, who has taken a benign neglect stance to the dollar, is leaving will be taken as a dollar positive," said Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ in London.

...

Democrats are also expected to expand their majorities in both chambers of Congress. Combined with an Obama victory, that would make it easier for his administration to push through activist policies to boost markets.

But there was some risk of the Democrats holding too much power, some analysts said.

"A landside Obama victory may raise the fear that Obama may shift more to the left, prompting a dollar-negative reaction in the short-term," BTM-UFJ's Halpenny said.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0432014420081104?rpc=401&=undefined&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

50. Currencies and Commodities: a clearer view (Risk Appetite!)

The writer of the above seems to be a little confused. The following is clearer:

US Dollar Pulls Back Sharply As Risk Appetite Drives Demand For Commodities, Stocks
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/market_alerts/fundamental_alert/US_Dollar_Pulls_Back_Sharply_1225819886868.html

Tuesday, 04 November 2008 16:28:22 GMT The US dollar has pulled back sharply versus most of the majors this morning, especially against the high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars, as a pick up in investor sentiment drives risky assets higher. This has been indicated by the surge in commodities, such as the $5+ gain in oil, and the more than 3% rise in the DJIA and S&P 500.

Source: Bloomberg

[Roland99]

18. Morning folks! Going to be a good Obama market day, eh?

And I got my vote in. Precinct was busy!

[ozymandius]

19. Good morning!

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I've read that turnout in New York City is very heavy. Long lines reported at 6am.

[AnneD]

35. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. Once again, the polling place is right outside my clinic door in the elementary school. It is the heaviest I have seen in my 5 years in this spot. If kids here decided the election, Obama would win hands down-they all love him. I think he looks more approachable to them.

I am trying to find a friendly election party here. I will be getting some adult refreshments on the way home. I will be either celebrating or drowning my sorrows.

The economy-one of the best in the country, is starting to tighten up. Hubby lost 10 music students this last week. Since this is discretionary money-that tells you how bad it is going to be getting. I told him he needs to spend more time in the studio now-which is good for him.

Good luck to all, get out and vote, and better yet, take a few friends with you to the polls. And God help us all.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[TalkingDog]

41. Here's one for AnnieD and Jimmy the G

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/the-most-accurate-electio_b_140181.html

Summary: bookies better than polls.

[AnneD]

60. Well,

Jimmy called this one too. He just thought he was too cute to say the Irish would win-like O'bama's. He say's he's lucky anyone remembers him these days-he's such a card. Bookies aren't better-just honest.

[TalkingDog]

25. Yay! Good.

I got my vote in last week for Mr. Obama. Early voting is great and I hope it goes nationwide. Of course that would make us more like European countries....I'm not sure we can handle all this being civilized at once.

[Imperialism Inc.]

27. The business press has been pissing me off.

They know a big Obama bounce is on the way so they keep going out of their way to find any excuse why it isn't actually due to Obama. The markets are scared of Obama they assert and say to see a real bounce McCain would have to score an upset. It is infuriating.

[Hugin]

29. ...

I've been avoiding the Mainstream Financial news for the last couple of weeks.

It's gotten pretty bad... Even leaking into the chat boards like at Google Finance.

I'm looking forward to the Obama Bounce! :bounce:

[DemWynner]

40. Read This one!

U.S. stock futures climb as voters head to the polls

"The futures are off to a good start for an Obama rally. Removing the uncertainty and the negative rhetoric is a step in the right direction," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Poll after poll has Obama leading in the race for the White House, with a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll giving the U.S. senator from Illinois an 8-point lead against McCain, a U.S. senator from Arizona. Read more.

U.S. Senate races will also be in the spotlight as a third of the upper chamber's seats are up for grabs.
"For now, the Senate race seems almost as interesting as the presidential one, though we add the caveat that policy intentions aside, the economic reality that will greet either presidential candidate, or any Senate make-up, will be as important a driver of policy as the campaign pledges of either McCain or Obama," said Rob Carnell, an economist at ING in London

...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-stocks-poised-opening-Election/story.aspx?guid={CBEEB1AB-76F9-482E-926F-F380D462F6A4}&dist=SecMostRead

You need to read the comments... they are very interesting.

[Hugin]

28. Let those votes fly!

W00T! :bounce:

[DemReadingDU]

21. NPR: Crisis with school district exotic investments

11/4/08 As the global economic crisis unfolds, a group of school districts in Wisconsin has found itself at one end of a chain of exotic and risky financial products.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96510159
appx 8 minutes


11/2/08 Weekend Planet Money Segment: Wisconsin School Investment Has Worldwide Implications
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96414824
appx 7 minutes


11/2/08 New York Times: From Midwest to M.T.A., Pain From Global Gamble
“People come up to me in the grocery store and say, ‘How did we get suckered into this?’ ”
— Marc Hujik, of the Kenosha, Wis., school board
On a snowy day two years ago, the school board in Whitefish Bay, Wis., gathered to discuss a looming problem: how to plug a gaping hole in the teachers’ retirement plan.
It turned to David W. Noack, a trusted local investment banker, who proposed that the district borrow from overseas and use the money for a complex investment that offered big profits.
“Every three months you’re going to get a payment,” he promised, according to a tape of the meeting. But would it be risky? “There would need to be 15 Enrons” for the district to lose money, he said.
The board and four other nearby districts ultimately invested $200 million in the deal, most of it borrowed from an Irish bank. Without realizing it, the schools were imitating hedge funds.
full article...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/business/02global.html?_r=1&oref=slogin


2/1/08 Bloomberg article: Pennsylvania schools also risky investments
James Barker saw no way out. In September 2003, the superintendent of the Erie City School District in Pennsylvania watched helplessly as his buildings began to crumble.
The 81-year-old Roosevelt Middle School was on the verge of being condemned. The district was running out of money to buy new textbooks. And the school board had determined that the 100,000-resident community 125 miles north of Pittsburgh couldn't afford a tax increase. Then JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest bank in the U.S., made Barker an offer that seemed too good to be true.
David DiCarlo, an Erie-based JPMorgan Chase banker, told Barker and the school board on Sept. 4, 2003, that all they had to do was sign papers he said would benefit them if interest rates increased in the future, and the bank would give the district $750,000, a transcript of the board meeting shows.
``You have severe building needs; you have serious academic needs,'' Barker, 58, says. ``It's very hard to ignore the fact that the bank says it will give you cash.'' So Barker and the board members agreed to the deal.
What New York-based JPMorgan Chase didn't tell them, the transcript shows, was that the bank would get more in fees than the school district would get in cash: $1 million. The complex deal, which placed taxpayer money at risk, was linked to four variables involving interest rates. Three years later, as interest rate benchmarks went the wrong way for the school district, the Erie board paid $2.9 million to JPMorgan to get out of the deal, which officials now say they didn't understand.
``That was like a sucker punch,'' Barker says. ``It's not about the district and the superintendent. It's about resources being sucked out of the classroom. If it's happening here, it's happening in other places.''
full article...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ay5LDbjbjy6c


The Reckoning: New York Times series exploring the causes of the financial crisis
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/series/the_reckoning/index.html


Related articles on the NPR Planet Money blog
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94427042

[Ghost Dog]

23. So now it's Europe's fault (¿?)

As regnaD kciN points out in this DU thread: Daily Telegraph (U.K.): Revenge of the Left across the world, the British right-wing Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is feeling, as well as delusional, rather depressed. He has "given up hoping," in the face of the "universal verdict ... that capitalism has run amok," that the 'powers that be' will come to the conclusion that yet more Chicago School laissez-faire unregulated and globalised 'free trade' would be the answer to everybody's problems.

Indeed, he goes on to say, President Obama "– if he wins – may have to start by nationalizing the US car industry."

For those who missed it, I recommend Edward Stourton's BBC interview with Eric Hobsbawm, the doyen of Marxist history.

"This is the dramatic equivalent of the collapse of the Soviet Union: we now know that an era has ended," said Mr Hobsbawm, still lucid at 91.

"It is certainly (the) greatest crisis of capitalism since the 1930s. As Marx and Schumpeter foresaw, globalization not only destroys heritage, but is incredibly unstable. It operates through a series of crises.

"There'll be a much greater role for the state, one way or another. We've already got the state as lender of last resort, we might well return to idea of the state as employer of last resort, which is what it was under FDR. It'll be something which orients, and even directs the private economy," he said.

Dismiss this as the wishful thinking of an old Marxist if you want, but I suspect his views may be closer to the truth than the complacent assumptions so prevalent in the City.

/... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3366575/Revenge-of-the-Left-across-the-world.html

Poor Ambrose, while making an attempt at realism, is not too happy about the prospect, especially when it may threaten the cushy number his friends in the City of London and other 'Western' financial centres have been most lucratively (and irresponsibly) enjoying for far too long now. "What will happen to London if EU exchange controls are imposed, or if leverage is restricted by draconian laws – as demanded by the German, Dutch, and Nordic Left? " he rhetorically asks. What he appears to be unable to explain, on the other hand, is just why the US automobile industry, for example, would have to be saved through State intervention. His market philosophy, after all, would normally insist on letting the weak go to the wall (and/or to die in the streets or in concentration camps), allowing only the most unrestrictedly ruthless to survive, 'red in tooth and claw'.

A long-standing visceral anti-European and Anglo-Saxon supremacist (otherwise known as a 'Little-Englander'), Mr. Evans-Pritchard goes on, after quoting the finely-expressed sentiment of Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister and SPD (Social Democrat) candidate for chancellor next year:

"We need a comprehensive new start, so we can reestablish our society on fresh foundations. People create value, not locusts,"

to paint in for us further detail of what Mr. Evans-Pritchard sees as the European Union's forthcoming (and, to him welcome) nemesis, this time quoting France's centre-right President Sarkozy:

"Laissez-faire, c'est fini," said President Nicolas Sarkozy. "We will intervene massively whenever a strategic enterprise needs our money."

Such language can now be heard daily across Europe. It can only intensify as the fall-out from the EU's €1.8bn (sic) trillion (£1.4 trillion) bank rescue becomes clearer, and as Europe's elites discover that their own banks are the most leveraged in the world and have played their own Wagnerian part in Gotterdammerung.

European and UK banks are five times more exposed to emerging markets than US banks. They alone hold the collective time-bomb of $1.6 trillion (£990bn) in hard currency loans to Eastern Europe – now starting to detonate in Hungary, Ukraine, Romania, and even Russia.

At some point, Europe's political class will face the awful truth that their own credit bubbles are just as bad – and perhaps worse – than the excesses of US sub-prime property. As that occurs, the shock will move by degrees from revulsion to political rage.

(For more on European investments in emerging economies from the New Labour-supporting New Statesman see the Weekend Economist thread here).

Furthermore, having denounced the, to him, spectre of the evil consequences of European Democratic Socialism, he goes on to threaten a return of Fascism:

Professor Hobsbawm, who spent his youth watching Hitler's rise in Berlin, has a warning for those who think this will help the Left in any recognizable form. "In the 1930s, the net political effect of the Depression was to enormously strengthen the Right," he said.

America was the great exception, as it may prove to be again. I for one will take the enlightened "socialism" of Barack Obama any day over the Hegelian broth nearing the boil in Europe.

Well, at least he wants to be on Obama's side. Such people always want to be on the winning side. But I ask you: What real comparison can be made between the excesses of sub-prime lending on castles-in-the-sand in the US home mortgage market to people who it was clear to all could never pay, and the massive derivatives market leveraged up on the back of it, and investment in hitherto-suppressed emerging markets with undoubtedly long futures ahead and plenty of room to grow?

Europe, above all, it seems, must be made to fail, for these people. I scratch my head in wonder. :smoke:

(ed. the odd typo).

[TalkingDog]

26. Wealthy pale penis people....

They deserve.

[LeftishBrit]

59. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is a serious lunatic.

He combines the typical British RW paranoia (the EU are evil and responsible for everything bad in Britain!) with the typical American RW paranoia (everything is the fault of the CLENIS!)

[Ghost Dog]

30. Europe shares up 2 pct by midday; banks, oils lead

Tue Nov 4, 2008 7:10am EST ... Across Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE rose 1.8 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI gained 2 percent and France's CAC .FCHI rose 2.3 percent.

"The odds are slightly better for higher indices by the end of the year," said Bernd Meyer, head of pan-European equity strategy at Deutsche Bank in London. "We now have a more favourable seasonality. Typically, the market is relatively weak in September and October, but the period of November to January tends to be a positive period."

Banks were the biggest gainers. BBVA (BBVA.MC: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) rose 5.7 percent and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) jumped 8.2 percent. SocGen's chief executive told French newspaper Les Echos that it could issue another 1.7 billion euro ($2.17 billion) hybrid bond next year.

But Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) slid 5.8 percent after it reported a smaller-than-expected writedown on toxic assets in the third quarter but said it faced more writedowns this quarter and bad debts are rising sharply.

UBS AG (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) was 0.4 percent lower after it said a government bailout is helping to stem client money outflows but warned that it could take a 6 billion Swiss franc ($5.20 billion) hit in the fourth quarter due to accounting effects.

...

The energy sector was a standout riser, with BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) gaining between 1.2 and 2.5 percent as U.S. crude rose more than 1 percent towards $65 a barrel.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL453339520081104?rpc=44&sp=true

Hmmm. "Accounting effects." And the oil price can now rise post-election. I see it.

[Ghost Dog]

42. European shares race higher; banks, oils help

Tue Nov 4, 2008 11:42am EST LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - European shares closed sharply higher on Tuesday as commodities stocks jumped, tracking a surge in crude and metals prices and banks rose on hopes the financial sector jitters may ease.

Expectations that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England might cut interest rates this week after Australia's move on Tuesday to sharply lower its rates also lifted sentiment ahead of the results of the U.S. Presidential election.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares provisionally closed 4.3 percent higher at 973.39 points, registering a sixth straight day of gains. But the benchmark index is still down 35.4 percent this year.

Commodities shares led the advance, as crude oil prices surged 7.5 percent after industry sources said Saudi Arabia had already made substantial cuts in crude supplies, while copper jumped 8 percent and aluminium gained 3 percent.

BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), gas producer BG Group (BG.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Tullow Oil (TLW.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) added between 2.5 and 9 percent.

Banking shares also moved higher. UniCredit (CRDI.MI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) jumped 19.2 percent, Societe General (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) advanced 11.2 percent, BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) added 5.6 percent, HBOS (HBOS.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) surged 10.1 percent and Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) was up 8.4 percent.

Across Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE rose 4.4 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI gained 4.9 percent and France's CAC .FCHI rose 4.6 percent.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL47623120081104?rpc=44

[antigop]

32. Next market loser: deferred comp

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081102/REG/311039970

As large corporate pension plans plunge deeper into the red, there's more on the line than just retirement benefits for rank-and-file workers. Pension benefits for top executives may soon be in jeopardy too, thanks to regulations put in place a few years ago.

Tucked into the Pension Protection Act of 2006—which was designed to shore up the funding levels of corporate pension plans, among other things—is a provision that says companies with defined-benefit plans that are funded only 60% or less may not set aside money for non-qualified pension plans for executives, including supplemental executive retirement plans, or SERPs.

While this rule received little notice in the heady days of 2006, it's bound to get more attention given the deterioration in the funded status of many companies' defined-benefit plans this year. Some experts predict that collectively, large corporations could end the year with their pensions more damaged than ever before.

If that proves to be the case, companies with the most severely underfunded pensions would be subject to the new rule, which was created to encourage executives to make significant contributions to their workers' defined-benefit plans and keep the funded status of these plans from approaching precarious levels. It was hoped the rule would help prevent companies from terminating or freezing traditional pension plans.
...
Under another provision in the PPA, companies with defined-benefit plans that are only 60% funded may be forced to freeze their plans, noted Kenneth Raskin, head of the executive compensation, benefits and employment practice at law firm White & Case. He also noted that when funding levels fall below 60%, the PPA limits the distributions that can be made to participants. Most notably, workers are not permitted to take full-value lump-sum payouts.

[antigop]

33. Demeter's post on the Weekend Economist thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x397813#398331

Demeter's post referenced a Reuters article that said:

Fifteen U.S. business groups have asked legislators to provide relief on a pension plan funding law to help companies avoid having to freeze or end pension plans that may be inadequately funded because of the financial crisis.

Someone worried about his deferred comp plan?

[AnneD]

38. AHHHHHHHH......

we just got a letter from the TRS that basically said that and the peons were asking me what that meant because they wanted to maybe get out of the market all together. This explains the letter.

[antigop]

39. Does the PPA (Pension "Protection" Act) apply to the TRS? Is it just for corporate plans? n/t

[AnneD]

58. I think just for corps....

we are state gov and that is different.

[antigop]

34. Treasury weighs purchasing stakes of more financial firms

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081104/REG/811049997/1036

The U.S. Treasury Department is considering using more of its $700 billion rescue fund to buy stakes in a broad range of financial companies, not just banks and insurers, after tentative signs of the program's success, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.

In focus are companies that provide financing to the broad economy, including bond insurers and specialty finance firms such as General Electric Co’s GE Capital unit, CIT Group and others, the people told the paper.

Treasury may also scrap part of its early plan of purchasing assets through an auction process and instead purchase some distressed assets directly, the paper said citing people familiar with the matter.

“We are looking at many ideas for strengthening the financial system and for restoring lending,” Treasury spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli was quoted as saying by the paper. “We are weighing ideas and have made no decisions.”

[TrogL]

36. Loonie Watch!!

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-09-23 Tuesday, September 23 0.965717 USD
2008-09-24 Wednesday, September 24 0.96609 USD
2008-09-25 Thursday, September 25 0.967305 USD
2008-09-26 Friday, September 26 0.965997 USD
2008-09-29 Monday, September 29 0.962186 USD
2008-09-30 Tuesday, September 30 0.943663 USD
2008-10-01 Wednesday, October 1 0.942774 USD
2008-10-02 Thursday, October 2 0.928591 USD
2008-10-03 Friday, October 3 0.924642 USD
2008-10-06 Monday, October 6 0.906865 USD
2008-10-07 Tuesday, October 7 0.904568 USD
2008-10-08 Wednesday, October 8 0.889205 USD
2008-10-09 Thursday, October 9 0.870853 USD
2008-10-10 Friday, October 10 0.840336 USD
2008-10-13 Monday, October 13 0.840336 USD
2008-10-14 Tuesday, October 14 0.862143 USD
2008-10-15 Wednesday, October 15 0.84717 USD
2008-10-16 Thursday, October 16 0.83661 USD
2008-10-17 Friday, October 17 0.846024 USD
2008-10-20 Monday, October 20 0.834934 USD
2008-10-21 Tuesday, October 21 0.819135 USD
2008-10-22 Wednesday, October 22 0.800256 USD
2008-10-23 Thursday, October 23 0.795355 USD
2008-10-24 Friday, October 24 0.785238 USD
2008-10-27 Monday, October 27 0.773096 USD
2008-10-28 Tuesday, October 28 0.772678 USD
2008-10-29 Wednesday, October 29 0.812876 USD
2008-10-30 Thursday, October 30 0.817728 USD
2008-10-31 Friday, October 31 0.817728 USD
2008-11-03 Monday, November 3 0.842744 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8574 0.8579 0.8574 0.8576 +0.0138 +1.64% 10:01 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8341 0.8430 0.8310 0.8435 +0.0110 +1.31% set 15:06 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8022 0.8022 0.8022 0.8449 +0.0107 +1.27% set 15:06 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.8457 +0.0107 +1.27% set 15:06 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.8465 +0.0107 +1.26% set 15:06 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.7000 0.7000 0.7000 0.8480 +0.0114 +1.34% set 15:06 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8488 +0.0114 +1.34% set 15:06 
  

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8043 0.8043 0.8043 0.8043 +0.0048 +0.60%   
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.5873 1.5873 1.5756 1.5784 -0.0323 -2.05%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.7978 0.7978 0.7978 0.7988 +0.0075 +0.94%     
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 125.59 127.91 125.59 127.84 +3.15 +2.52%      
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.27500 1.28510 1.27500 1.28290 +0.02203 +1.75%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 20- day moving average crossing at 83.18. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 88.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 85.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8318. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.97.

Analysis

The loonie's on a mad climb, the TSE's on a rally, oil prices are drastically down all on expectations of an Obama win today.

GOTV!!! :bounce::party::bounce:

[TrogL]

57. Closing numbers etc.

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8574 0.8696 0.8574 0.8682 +0.0244 +2.89% 15:01 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8625 0.8675 0.8667 0.8672 +0.0237 +2.81% set 14:59 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8680 0.8680        0.8675 +0.0226 +2.67% set 11:22 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.8689 +0.0232 +2.74% set 15:06 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.8692 +0.0227 +2.68% set 15:06 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.7000 0.7000 0.7000 0.8696 +0.0216 +2.55% set 15:06 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8700 +0.0212 +2.50% set 15:06 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8007 0.8007 0.8007 0.8007 -0.0036 -0.45%   
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.5873 1.5873 1.5756 1.5890 +0.0106 +0.67%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.8096 0.8134 0.8096 0.8134 +0.0146 +1.83%    
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 125.590 130.480 125.590 128.855 +4.165 +3.33%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.27500 1.29430 1.27500 1.29305 +0.03218 +2.55%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian dollar closed up 249 points at .8684 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls have gained good upside near-term technical momentum the past week, to begin to suggest that a market low is in place.

Analysis

The loonie's on a tear, the TSE's waaaay up.

Party time!!!! :popcorn::party::bounce:

[antigop]

43. May I suggest the following for today's song?

After voting, for some reason this song just kept buzzing around in my head.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bk-4Vdp9_x0

antigop
--certified theater geek

(Theater and my piano are what helped keep me going the last 8 years.) And DU.

May we start getting back on the right track after today.

"Tomorrow comes..."

[Hugin]

46. Lovely!

Great choice. :)

[RobertSeattle]

44. Let the OBAMA Rally Begin!

[Coventina]

48. Oil prices surge in volatile week of trading

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-tAD9488P7O0

Crude prices moved in tandem with global markets, which jumped from Asia to Europe. The Dow Jones industrial average soared 300 points despite a new Commerce Department report that said factory orders fell 2.5 percent in September from August, much worse than the 0.7 percent drop analysts had predicted.

Still, gasoline prices continued to tumble, a fact lost on many Americans headed to the polls with the U.S. housing market in turmoil and thousands of jobs already lost.

Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates, said the weaker dollar in particular likely attracted some people to oil.

The euro rose more than 4 cents Tuesday to $1.30. The dollar lost ground to the yen, the pound and other currencies as well.

[Coventina]

49. China aircraft maker sells five jets to GE

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSHKG28859320081104

ZHUHAI, China (Reuters) - China's main aircraft maker has sealed an agreement worth up to $750 million to sell five jets, with an option for 20 more, to General Electric's (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) aircraft leasing arm, in its first major overseas deal for the homegrown plane.

The government-backed Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) signed an official agreement with GE Commercial Aviation Services on the Chinese-designed ARJ21 civilian jets on Tuesday at the biennial Zhuhai airshow in southern China.

"It is the first time that an aircraft that is researched and developed by China is sold to the United States, such a high-end market," said Zhang Qingwei, the Chairman of COMAC.

"Also, during the process of implementing this contract we will be able to greatly improve ourselves in terms of mass production, customer service and industry awareness."

***********************************************

How'd you like to travel in a plane that's stamped "Made in China"?

[Coventina]

51. Nearly 25 Percent of Japanese Internet Users Accessed iTunes in August, According to comScore World

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Nearly-25-Percent-Japanese-Internet/story.aspx?guid=%7B45DC3B19-6B25-4E74-918F-F1A97FD5E16A%7D


TOKYO, Nov 04, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- comScore, Inc. (SCOR:comscore inc com
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 11.87-0.04-0.34%

2:35pm 11/04/2008

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SCOR 11.87, -0.04, -0.3%) , a leader in measuring the digital world, today released a study of music-related sites in Japan finding that nearly 40 percent of the Japanese online population visited an entertainment music site in August. The study also revealed that Japan recorded the highest penetration of users of Apple iTunes software during the month, when compared with the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany.

[DemWynner]

52. Kick

Because I don't like to search for the SMW!

[UpInArms]

53. end of Election Day euphoria - numbers and blather

Dow 9,625.28 305.45 (3.28%)
Nasdaq 1,780.12 53.79 (3.12%)
S&P 500 1,005.75 39.45 (4.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.765% 0.139

NYSE Volume 5,625,156,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,356,023,250

4:15 pm : Stocks and commodities surged on Election Day, benefiting from some better-than-expected quarterly earnings results, improvement in the credit market and a report that the a broader range of financial firms may receive investments from the Treasury.

The S&P 500 rose 4.1% in broad-based strength, ending near its best level of the session. Small-cap names, however, saw less of a bid, with the Russell 2000 Index closing up just 1.3%.

Commodities rallied 5.3% as the dollar tumbled 1.8% against a basket of world currencies. Oil futures for December delivery surged 9.0% to $69.65 per barrel, getting an added boost from reports that some OPEC members were cutting production.

Credit markets continue to show improvement and investors are showing less fear. Interbank dollar lending, known as Libor, declined across all terms and the TED Spread fell 18 basis points to 2.24%. The Volatility Index, which is considered the "fear index", declined 11%.

General Electric (GE 20.81, +1.51) was the best-performing S&P 500 component. The U.S. Treasury is considering investments in a broad range of financial companies, not just banks and insurers, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing sources. The report specifically mentioned GE's capital unit and CIT Group (CIT 6.15, +1.63) as possible recipients. A GE spokesperson said a Treasury investment is not expected, although GE would consider an offer if one was made, Reuters reported.

In earnings news, MasterCard (MA 169.37, +25.48), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 24.23, +3.12) and Automatic Data Processing (ADP 36.23, +2.96) topped estimates for their latest quarters. The latter company, however, gave downside revenue guidance for its fiscal year 2009.

All ten of the economic sectors rose, led by energy (+6.4%), telecom (+5.2%) and industrials (+5.5%). Healthcare (+1.6%) and utilities (+2.3%) underperformed on a relative basis.

In economic news, market participants shrugged off negative factory orders data. September factory orders fell 2.5% month-over-month after dropping 4.3% in August. The results were worse than the 0.8% decline that was expected.

Despite the rally in stocks, the longer term Treasuries rallied. The 10-year note rose 48 ticks and the 30-year bond rose 68 ticks in light trade.

The S&P 500 has surged 19.8% since its October 10 multi-year low. Despite the massive advance, it is still down 31.5% year-to-date.DJ30 +305.45 NASDAQ +53.79 NQ100 +3.3% R2K +1.4% SP400 +2.3% SP500 +39.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1758/2.33 bln/1006 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2464/1.31 bln/663

3:25 pm : The major indices sport solid gains going into the final half-hour of the trading session.

Tomorrow, traders will look at the ADP private employment report for clues of what the government's job report on Friday may bring. In addition, the ISM Services Index is set for release at 10:00 AM ET and the weekly crude inventory data will be announced at 10:35 AM ET.DJ30 +208.28 NASDAQ +35.22 SP500 +28.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1521/1.87 bln/1228 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2257/906 mln/838

[UpInArms]

54. Fascist Wealth Transfer Continues: US weighs capital injections for more finance firms

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0448021520081104

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department is exploring how to best expand its capital injection program to provide more liquidity to credit markets, and is considering specialty finance firms in the process, a source familiar with the government's thinking said on Tuesday.

The source said Treasury is working diligently behind the scenes but is not expected to announce any program expansion in the coming days. The government is trying to figure out its next step after already allocating to U.S. banks the bulk of the $250 billion it has for capital infusions.

Under the current equity purchase program, federally-regulated banks may sell the Treasury Department a stake of preferred shares in a program that is expected to drain $250 billion of the $700 billion financial rescue program passed by Congress last month.

A possible next step for Treasury investment could be extending help to specialty finance arms such as General Electric's (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) GE Capital unit, CIT Group Inc (CIT.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and others that provide financing to the broad economy, the source said.

A GE spokesman said on Tuesday that the company does not expect Treasury to offer it money from the bailout fund, but would listen to a proposal if one were made.

"This is not something we expect," said Russell Wilkerson, a spokesman for the U.S. conglomerate. "If it were offered, we would evaluate it."

CIT spokesman Curt Ritter said in an e-mail: "To ensure liquidity flows to small and mid-size businesses, CIT is currently considering a variety of options to build its deposit-taking capabilities and secure access to various government programs."

...more...