STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday October 29

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday October 29, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 83
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2836 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2561 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2852
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 28, 2008

Dow... 9,065.12 +889.35 (+10.88%)
Nasdaq... 1,649.47 +143.57 (+9.53%)
S&P 500... 940.51 +91.59 (+10.79%)
Gold future... 740.50 -2.40 (-0.32%)
30-Year Bond 4.17% +0.07 (+1.63%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.82% +0.09 (+2.44%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Pizza, Bonds, Burgers and Yen
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

In last week's column we stuck our necks out and made the highly unpopular call for an approaching peak in the Dollar Index. So it is with major market turns that very often you end up sweating bullets waiting for a market to change direction -- even with good timing. So it was in the last few days, as I am now most definitely a few pounds lighter with some extra sleep deprivation to boot. I, for one, (and I am sure I will have a lot of company) will be grateful when the mining stocks stop dropping like rocks and begin a new bull move, as staring at these large percentage losses is getting tedious. Of course, after suffering for the last few days, it appears that “the turn” we were expecting has at last come into full view.

....

While the prices of most quality resource stocks are presently bombed out and through the floor, and hence appear to be primed to explode off the lows, the other market which looks ready to explode, perhaps upon itself, is the market for Government bonds. Anyone see the chart on the 10 Year Bond lately? Talk about a scary looking chart. The 10 Year looks like the double bottom of all time, complete with a huge positive divergence on the medium term MACD. In my view, as stock prices slowly begin to firm over the next 2 months and carve out a longer term base, the odds are high that the next primary bear market will be besieging the bond bulls. For the 10 Year, any move above 4.30% is the kiss of death and would signal a long term secular uptrend in bond yields getting underway, and if inverted on a price basis, a breakdown from a major top. My view, watch out for a downside reversal in the Dollar and a corollary movement up in Bond yields. That’s the recipe for Re-Inflation, and perhaps down the road a bit, hyper-inflation, and could be the ultimate negative path ahead. The veritable ‘road to perdition’ as it were, complete with pizza prices changing every 30 minutes. I promise, when and if we get there, (and I hope we don’t) we will have technical gauges (RSI, MACD etc…) tracking Burgers and Pizza so that we can all “time” our entry points for where and when to buy lunch.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Durable Orders Sep
Briefing.com -1.0%
Consensus -1.0%
Prior -4.5%

10:35 Crude Inventories 10/25
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

14:15 FOMC Policy Statement

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

56. Durable Goods - last month much worse - this month not so bad

36. U.S. Aug. durable-goods orders revised to -5.5% from -4.5%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

37. U.S. Sept. durable-goods inventories rise 0.4%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

38. U.S. Sept. durable-goods shipments rise 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

39. U.S. Sept. core capital equipment orders fall 1.4%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

40. U.S. Sept. durable-goods orders ex-transportation fall 1.1%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

41. U.S. Sept. durable-goods orders rise 0.8% vs. -1.0% expected
8:30 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

[UpInArms]

57. Petroleum Inventories Report:

04. U.S. crude supply up 500,000 brls last week: Energy Dept.
10:36 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

05. U.S. distillate supply up 2.3 mln brls: Energy Dept.
10:36 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

06. U.S. gasoline supply down 1.5 mln brls: Energy Dept.
10:36 AM ET, Oct 29, 2008

[Roland99]

65. Fed cuts rate to 1%

Film at 11.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil bounces off 17-month low to $64 in Asia

SINGAPORE – Oil prices bounced off a 17-month low Wednesday in Asia as a rally in global stock markets boosted investor confidence that the worst of a global economic slowdown and its impact on crude demand has been priced in.

Oil investors have been closely tracking equity indexes for signs of market sentiment about how deep and widespread the global downturn will be. They took heart from a rally in stocks that began Tuesday in Asia, followed through to Europe and the U.S. and continued Wednesday in Asia.

....

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was up $1.95 to $64.68 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract overnight fell 49 cents to settle at $62.73, the lowest closing price since May 15, 2007.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 3.7 cents to $1.49 a gallon, while heating oil gained 3.8 cent to $1.95 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery increased 12.4 cents to $6.31 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Most Asian markets extend gains after US rally

HONG KONG – Most Asian stock markets rose Wednesday after a stunning rally on Wall Street as investors awaited possible interest rate cuts from central banks in the U.S. and Japan. European markets opened mixed.

Japan's market was by far the best performer: the Nikkei 225 index jumped 589.98 points, or 7.7 percent, to 8,211.90 after the dollar rebounded against the yen overnight, easing pressure on exporters.

But elsewhere, the regional rally fizzled by the afternoon as traders cashed in profits amid fresh worries about company earnings.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, up nearly 5 percent in early trading, trimmed its gain to just under 0.9 percent in volatile trade after a spectacular 14.4 percent rise the day before. Australia's S&P/ASX200 climbed 1.3 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081029/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

5. Dow ends up almost 900, but no one is exhaling

Wall Street's best day in two weeks — and one of its best ever — brought little real reason to celebrate. Even the manic, final-hour of buying that sent the Dow Jones industrials soaring almost 900 points Tuesday was overshadowed by the reality that it could turn on investors in an instant.

The extraordinary, lurching volatility that has gripped Wall Street since the financial meltdown began in mid-September meant there were no guarantees the rally would hold, not even for a few days.

Investors are expecting a cut in interest rates when the Federal Reserve announces its decision Wednesday. But they're also staring into an economic abyss, bracing for a recession of a depth no one knows for sure.

.....

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index plunged to the lowest level in its 41-year history in the wake of this month's financial meltdown, the sharp drop in home prices and increasing job losses.

The index fell to 38, down from a September reading of about 61 — the third-steepest monthly decline since the board started the measure in 1967. Analysts, way off the mark, had expected 52.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081029/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_markets

[ozymandius]

6. Has the Consumer Finally Caved?

The U.S. consumer is in a foul mood, and the effects on investors and the economy are likely to be harsh.

The Conference Board said on Oct. 28 that its consumer confidence index has dropped to an all-time low, from 61.4 in September to 38 in October. Americans were partly reacting to what they saw on the news in the past month: A plunge in the stock market, the dysfunctional credit markets, the failure of major financial firms, passage of a $700-billion bailout package in Washington, and a Presidential campaign focused on the economic crisis.

....

Keith Hembre, chief economist at FAF Advisors, identifies three main culprits "conspiring to substantially depress household confidence": deteriorating asset markets, credit markets, and labor markets.

....

Americans can be expected to cut back on spending and to augment their savings accounts for tough times ahead. But that saving, however virtuous, will rob the rest of the economy of important revenue. That's a phenomenon economist John Maynard Keynes called the "paradox of thrift."

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2008/pi20081028_065364.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis

[willing dwarf]

35. It's really for the good of the planet that the US consumer slows down

I'm so tired of the mantra that good citizens should spend money. We are going to kill the planet to eke out a few more years of high living.

Of course this bumpy landing is probably harming many more people than would be needed if the spending bubble had been able to deflate slowly.

All in all, the US rate of consumption is completely against the laws of nature and has been unsustainable for years. Good riddance!

[tama]

42. Yup

It's the whole growth paradigm that has to go.

[ozymandius]

7. Home prices see another record plunge

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home prices fell in August for the 25th consecutive month and prices in 10 major markets plunged a record 17.7% year over year, according to a key index of real estate values released Tuesday.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price 10-city index dropped 1.1% for the month.

The 20-city index recorded a record year-over-year decline of 16.6% with a 1% fall in August.

....

That inventory overhang includes many vacant homes. The U.S. Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that the number of vacant homes on the market held steady in the third quarter, at about 2.8% of all housing. That's 65% higher than the long-term historic rate of 1.7%, and represents an excess inventory of nearly a million homes.

....

The Case-Shiller indexes compare the sale prices of the same homes each year to determine price trends and are considered one of the most accurate home price gauges.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/28/real_estate/August_Case_Shiller/?postversion=2008102816

[ozymandius]

10. U.S. Growth Will Be Hurt More by Homes Than Stocks, Study Says

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Plunging home prices will cut economic growth in the U.S. more than the drop in stock prices this year, economists at the University of Southern California and the University of California, Los Angeles, said.

A 10 percent decline in housing wealth results in a $105 billion, or 1.2 percent, reduction in personal spending, according to the three-year study by economists at the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate and the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of GDP, so that drop would result in a reduction in real GDP growth of 1 percentage point, the study said.

...

U.S. GDP probably contracted at a 0.5 percent annual rate from July to September, the biggest drop since the 2001 recession, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of Commerce Department figures being released Oct. 30. Consumer spending probably dropped by the most in almost two decades as job losses mounted, stock prices sank and property values declined.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a1ua7J7AYpxM&refer=economy

[TalkingDog]

40. Yet last night the talking heads on the news were chatting about

bottoms and how the uptick in sales was GREAT news.

...really, it's great...you believe me don't you?...about how great it is....because it's really, really great. just really, truly great.....

[ozymandius]

8. The Big Three bailout debate

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Are General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler LLC too big to fail? Or just too powerful?

Those are key questions being weighed this week as Treasury Department officials and officials from the troubled automakers discuss whether the Big Three might be the next U.S. corporate icons to get a bailout from the federal government.

Sales at GM (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500) and Chrysler are down 20% so far this year and are likely to fall further in the months ahead. The losses that have dogged their core North American automotive operations for years are poised to climb higher as well.

....

All told, about 2 million Americans work in the auto industry nationwide, including manufacturing and sales. Banks, Wall Street firms and other investment funds also hold tens of billions of their high-interest debt.

....

David Cole, chairman of the Michigan think tank Center for Automotive Research estimates that if either GM or Ford were to fail, it could cause a $100 billion hit to the overall economy, affecting everything from suppliers to dealers to the retail base in the cities and towns that depend on the auto plants.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/29/news/companies/bigthree_bailout/index.htm

[ozymandius]

9. Fed May Cut Rate to 1%, Signal Steps to Save Economy (Update1)

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may lower its benchmark interest rate to 1 percent today and signal further reductions to levels unseen since Dwight Eisenhower was president.

Tumbling commodities prices and weaker consumer spending are slowing inflation, which officials described as a ``significant concern'' at their last scheduled meeting in September. Tomorrow, the Commerce Department will probably report that the economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the most since the 2001 recession, economists predict.

The Fed ``will be very aggressive,'' said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. ``Inflation risks are off the table'' and ``the issue now is how bad the recession will be.''

....

The Fed has already cut the benchmark rate from 5.25 percent in the past 13 months and created six lending programs channeling more than $1 trillion into the financial system. Banks are still reluctant to lend to each other and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down almost 36 percent this year, even after yesterday's surge.

The FOMC is scheduled to announce its decision on rates at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aPjEiSG.3SZ8&refer=economy

[ozymandius]

16. Fed set to cut rates, others line up to follow

TOKYO/LONDON (Reuters) - The United States is expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, a measure Japan, the European Central Bank and Britain are forecast to follow by the end of next week to bolster economies facing recession.

While dispensing with a repeat of the coordinated cuts made earlier this month, authorities fear the worst financial crisis in 80 years will usher in a long recession and are looking to individual rate reductions to soften the blow.

Hungary became the latest country to seek finance from global lenders, agreeing a rescue package worth $25.1 billion to shore up its currency and markets.

....

The Bank of Japan will consider cutting rates at a policy meeting on Friday but will watch market conditions before deciding, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

....

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to follow suit at their regular meetings next week.

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSTRE49N5VU20081029

[ozymandius]

17. Hungary snares $25.1 billion bailout

LONDON (MarketWatch) - Hungary on Wednesday secured a $25.1 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union as authorities scrambled to avoid a crisis in Central and Eastern European emerging markets that could wreak further havoc on European banks.

But the move raises questions about the IMF's ability to serve as a backstop as worries about emerging markets mount.

The IMF agreed to provide a loan of as much as $15.7 billion under a 17-month standby arrangement. The European Union is prepared to provide Hungary with $8.1 billion, and the World Bank will lend $1.3 billion.

....

The IMF package is expected to be approved by the institution's directors next month. Under the terms of the arrangement, Hungary will implement policies designed to stabilize the economy in the near term and improve the long-term growth outlook, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a statement.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Hungary-snares-251-billion-IMF/story.aspx?guid={D7743215-8D53-40B5-9103-BA0B7C9A7A53}

[tama]

45. "inprove the long term growth outlook"

The IMF lunatics belong to a lunatic asylum.

[Demeter]

100. Does the IMP Have ANY Unqualified "Successes"?

How about "qualified" successes?

I have never heard anyone sing its praises, of any nationality or political persuasion.

[willing dwarf]

39. But will banks and mortgage companies pass it on?

We keep waiting to see the various rate cuts work there way into the mortgage rates, but instead the rates have stayed much the same. Is there anything the Fed can do to force the banks to pass on lower rates?

[TalkingDog]

55. They could try, they are already telling banks to stop hoarding money

but since the govt. is firmly in the pocket of the financial sector, it's unlikely that they will try to legislate lending to the impoverished and unreliable masses.

They seem to think a baseball game consists of the pitcher and catcher throwing the ball to each other. (and that's my on topic sports analogy for the remainder of the year)

[Hugin]

94. Yay! A sports analogy!

You rule TalkingDog! :thumbsup:

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Hedge funds and VW: what a pile up!

Today let's ponder the marvel of the €22bn (£18bn) loss incurred over just two days by hedge funds and other short-sellers of shares in Volkswagen AG.

We know there is a loss of that magnitude, because the aggregated short positions in VW - or the sum of all those bets on a fall in VW's share price - have been equivalent to 11% of the business at a time when the shares have been soaring.

In fact on Monday and Tuesday, VW shares rose an extraordinary 348% - which is enough to burn to a frazzle anyone wagering that the stock would decline - after Porsche disclosed it had taken out financial contracts that would give it a controlling stake in VW.
...
UPDATE, 09:38AM: More mayhem in the shares of German car makers this morning. VW's price fell as much as 56% at one stage, while Porsche's rose by more than a third. And Daimler's climbed by a fifth.
...
Well Porsche said it would be helping out the squeezed hedge funds by settling "hedge transactions in the amount of up to 5% of the Volkswagen ordinary shares" - which has the effect of releasing 5% of VW's stock on to the market for trading.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/hedge_funds_and_vw_what_a_pile.html

It had been a strange share price anyway - it had doubled in priced from about 200 to 400 Euros from the start of September to the middle of October, while markets were plummeting; then it dropped to 200 again in a couple of weeks, and then this huge spike came up:

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/5/15058/three_month.stm

I have little sympathy for the hedge funds (didn't that doubling in share price indicate someone had been buying the stock heavily?)

[ozymandius]

13. I almost pity anyone who took the other side of that deal.

Almost. I agree that higher prices indicate heavy buying of stock. I suspect VW.

[Robbien]

59. The Porsche side of that bet is all in the Porsche family who owns 100% of Porsche

They directly own 51% of Porshe and the Family's holding company owns the rest.

This deal caused a huge feud in the family.

Mr Piëch has long nurtured the ambition of combining Porsche and VW. He seems to have achieved this. He also wants to retain full command of VW and in so doing has provoked a feud with the other Porsche family shareholders that has for the first time gone public.

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto091520081421140517&page=2

Piëch is the son of the son-in-law of the original Porsche and he is basically the top guy at Porsche.

Another article just a few days ago said they finally resolved the feud. Basically Piëch will allow his Porsche cousin to share power. Both will run Porsche and VW.

http://news.smh.com.au/business/porsche-family-ends-feud-before-vw-buy-20081026-58vj.html


The other side of the deal is fairly widespread among the hedges but another article out yesterday said that Bear Stearns took a $5B hit on this deal. It is likely the Porsche Family doesn't want the Bear pissed off at them which is probably why the article today said Porsche is willing to 'share the wealth' and give those on the losing end of the deal a little something.

[ozymandius]

12. U.S. Treasury Shuns Banks That Need Cash Most in Buying Spree

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government's $160 billion handout to banks from Niagara Falls to Beverly Hills is going mostly to lenders that need it least, putting weaker rivals at risk of being shut down or taken over, analysts say.

``This has the unintended effect of making the strong stronger and the weak weaker,'' said Gray Medlin, founder of Carson Medlin Co., a Raleigh, North Carolina, investment bank focused on banking deals. ``Banks that are getting bad exams and are under intense pressure from regulators won't be successful in applying.''

.....

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is doling out cash to recapitalize lenders and jump-start takeovers. Besides PNC and Saigon National, regional lenders that have accepted government stakes in exchange for cash include SunTrust Banks Inc., Capital One Financial Corp. and KeyCorp. They also include City National Corp., in Beverly Hills, and First Niagara Financial Group Inc., in upstate New York.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=amABF5wPNrf0&refer=exclusive

---

Who said this is unintended?

[dixiegrrrrl]

67. Exactly.

[ozymandius]

14. U.S. Stock Futures Decline; General Electric, 3M Drop in Europe

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell on concern a move by the Federal Reserve to ease borrowing costs won't be enough to avert a deterioration in the economy.

General Electric Co. and 3M Co. declined more than 1 percent in Germany before a report that may show orders for durable goods dropped in September for a second month as the credit freeze deepened sand sales declined. The Federal Reserve policy makers meeting today are projected to lower interest rates further to help increase the flow of credit.

....

Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index expiring in December lost 21.3, or 2.3 percent, to 917.4 as of 5:41 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 176, or 2 percent, to 8,910, indicating the measure will pare yesterday's 11 percent surge. Nasdaq-100 Index futures slid 32.25, or 2.5 percent, to 1,275.75.

....

General Electric, the world's biggest maker of power generation equipment, lost 1.4 percent to $19.21 in German trading. 3M, the maker of more than 55,000 products from Post-it Notes to electronic road signs, dropped 1.7 percent to $63.21.

Bookings for goods meant to last several years fell 1.1 percent last month after slumping 4.8 percent in August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its durable-goods report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afz34Tx9RR0o&refer=news

[ozymandius]

15. early futures negative, suggest holding pattern

S&P 500 -10.70 928.00 10/29 6:16am

NASDAQ -30.75 1277.25 10/29 5:47am

Dow Jones -89.00 9000.00 10/29 6:16am

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

[Festivito]

18. Debt: 10/27/2008 10,524,747,198,710.20 (UP 791,842,853.60) (Today, UP a little.)

(Yesterday down a little, today, up a little. Although, three-quarters of a billion is nothing to sneeze at.)

is = Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,249,200,819,818.43 + 4,275,546,378,891.82
DOWN 114,166,180.08 + UP 906,009,033.67
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle this many digits and zeroes the last digit -- the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 31,777,383,363.06.
The average for the last 30 days would be 21,184,922,242.04.
The average for the last 31 days would be 20,501,537,653.58.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 18 reports in 27 days of FY2009 averaging 27.78B$ per report, 18.52B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 85 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 12.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/27/2008 10,524,747,198,710.20 GWB (UP 4,796,551,402,528.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 500,022,301,797.80 so far this fiscal year. Milestone reached on light borrowing day.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $860,115,395,451.13 in last 39 days.
That's 860B$ in 39 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 85% of that highest year ever only in 39 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 39 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3567295&mesg_id=3567356

[Wednesdays]

47. $860.115B in 39 days = $255,257 every SECOND

:wow:

Or, how about this: they're borrowing $255 every millisecond!

[Festivito]

51. But, it's only a Quarter each microsecond for 39 days!

Hey buddy, can ya spare some change?

BTW: These 39 days: that would be $26,500 per American, family of four: $106,000, if it were to last a whole year.

Unlikely, thank God, but that's the calculation.

[DemReadingDU]

48. 18.52B$/day

Shocking

[Festivito]

52. FY09: That's $61 per day per American. $244/day(family of 4).

Using 303M Americans of all ages.

That's all some people make in a day.

And it's about $354 each work day for a family of four. Thank goodness we're talking about a hopefully unusual situation here, but just the same, it is astonishing.

[Festivito]

77. Debt: 10/28/2008 10,526,720,156,868.30 (UP 1,972,958,158.10) (Low for 3 days)

(Perhaps the deca-billion daily borrowing is done for now?)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,249,172,415,201.81 + 4,277,547,741,666.58
DOWN 28,404,616.62 + UP 2,001,362,774.76
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle this many digits and zeroes the last digit -- the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 30,358,125,019.96.
The average for the last 30 days would be 21,250,687,513.97.
The average for the last 32 days would be 19,922,519,544.35.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 19 reports in 28 days of FY2009 averaging 26.42B$ per report, 17.93B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 84 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 12.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/28/2008 10,526,720,156,868.30 GWB (UP 4,798,524,360,686.73 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 501,995,259,955.90 so far this fiscal year. Milestone reached on light borrowing day.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $862,088,353,609.23 in last 40 days.
That's 862B$ in 40 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 85% of that highest year ever only in 40 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 40 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3571270&mesg_id=3571306

[ozymandius]

19. NY Times: Lenders Begin to Curb Credit Cards

From Calculated Risk

From Eric Dash at the NY Times: As Economy Slows, Lenders Begin to Curb Credit Cards

Lenders wrote off an estimated $21 billion in bad credit card loans in the first half of 2008 as more borrowers defaulted on their payments. With companies laying off tens of thousands of workers, the industry stands to lose at least another $55 billion over the next year and a half, analysts say. Currently, the total losses amount to 5.5 percent of credit card debt outstanding, and could surpass the 7.9 percent level reached after the technology bubble burst in 2001.

“If unemployment continues to increase, credit card net charge-offs could exceed historical norms,” Gary L. Crittenden, Citigroup’s chief financial officer, said.

The record charge-off rate was 7.85% in Q1 2002 according to the Fed and a new record will probably set during this recession.

more...

[ozymandius]

20. I hope your day goes smoothly.

I expect to have fun seeing how the Fed dances the same dance to the same tune. A rate cut will make people feel happy for about two hours, IMO, then it's back to the issues of numbers and stark headlines.

:hi:

[gopbuster]

21. (Richard Russell) A Hard Look at Gold

Wouldn't copy and paste for some reason. Editorial by Richard Russell (Oct. 28)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell102808.html

[Irish Girl]

27. Here's a snippet.

The one area that no one touches, that no politician will mention, that no investigative journalist will dare discuss is the value and viability of fiat money. Yet, we know that throughout history, no fiat currency has ever survived. My thinking is that fiat money was expressly forbidden in the US Constitution. The Founding Fathers in their wisdom expressly stated that the US was not to resort to fiat money. Today, the US government can "print" Federal Reserve Notes and decree by law or fiat that what they are printing or creating by computer is legal for the payment of all debt. In other words, fiat money is indeed money by government proclamation. It's as if the US government proclaimed by fiat that "all cats are now dogs." It makes that much sense. Since money is wealth or payment for work done, the question is -- is fiat money really wealth? To ask that question today is almost treasonous.

You and I work for a real return. Is it logical that what ten thousand men work for can be printed in an instant by the government? Fiat money exists for only one reason -- the last three generations are used to it, nobody questions it -- it is based on mindless confidence in the government.

Every central bank on the planet is now grinding out their brand of fiat currency -- and in large quantities. I believe that somewhere ahead doubt will rise as to the validity and logic of fiat money. Fiat money has existed and been accepted for recent decades. My belief is that ultimately this bear market is going to expose the great fraud of fiat money. Right now, for some reason, gold and gold bars are being swept off the market. Call up any coin dealer and ask about his inventory of gold coins. He'll tell you he has none. Why? What's happening? I think this is the first stirring of distrust in fiat money. The little cloud, now no bigger than a fist, is growing. The little dark cloud is distrust in fiat money. And it's growing.

(con't)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell102808.html

[gopbuster]

38. Thanks....think I need to reboot my Firefox...yep it's been a nasty reality

What was once conspiracy theory is being exposed

The Money Masters

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936&ei=OFQISbe-BIKM-QGwgcH4Dw&q=The+money+masters

[AnneD]

103. gopbuster......

a big personal thanks for this catch. I would like to see it posted in the weekend economist when folks have more time to view it. This was an excellent piece and explains why I hade the gut feeling about the fed bailout. Oh Lord what have we done.

[TalkingDog]

41. Thanks, coincidenceor, and Welcome to DU

and the SMW.

[gopbuster]

22. World will struggle to meet oil demand (FT)

World will struggle to meet oil demand

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London

Published: October 28 2008 23:32 | Last updated: October 28 2008 23:32

Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.


The findings suggest the world will struggle to produce enough oil to make up for steep declines in existing fields, such as those in the North Sea, Russia and Alaska, and meet long-term de­mand. The effort will become even more acute as prices fall and investment decisions are delayed.

The IEA, the oil watchdog, forecasts that China, India and other developing countries’ demand will require investments of $360bn each year until 2030.

more....http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e5e78778-a53f-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

[Ghost Dog]

90. Peak oil. There (in spite of all the confusion) you have it. n/t

[gopbuster]

23. Case Shiller Analysis October 2008 Release (Home Prices Indices)

Case Shiller Analysis October 2008 Release

Inquiring minds are considering the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Release for October 2008.

New York, October 28, 2008 – Data through August 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, a trend that prevailed throughout the first half of 2008 and has continued into the second half.

Once again, the indices have set new records, with annual declines of 17.7% and 16.6%, respectively. However, the acceleration in decline was only moderate in August. The July data reported annual declines of 17.5% and 16.3%, respectively.
“The downturn in residential real estate prices continued, with very few bright spots in the data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite reported record 12-month declines. Furthermore, for the fifth (5th) straight month, every region reported negative annual returns.

Nine of the 20 regions have record annual declines. Phoenix and Las Vegas are now returning -30.7% and -30.6% versus August 2007, respectively. Each of the California markets- Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego- are down more than 25% from their values 12 months ago. Miami and Tampa, the two Florida markets, are down 28.1% and 18.1%, respectively.

more.....http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/case-shiller-analysis-october-2008.html

[gopbuster]

24. Elliot Wave stuff.....

S&P 500 Crash Count - Wave 3 Update

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-500-crash-count-wave-3-update.html

[gopbuster]

25. Looks like the 1100 top in the SPX he has set.....

takes us up (within this possible relief) to in between 50% and 61.8% Fib before the next wave down (scary)

So if we transfer that to the INDU it would correlate to 10,720

That is basically where the monthly overhead downtrend resistance is set as well for next month

Will have to chew, cycle, and push through the other near term overheads to get there i.e 9250, 9889 (61.8) etc.

I'd say more like 10,250 IF it can do it

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25017049

IF.....just something to watch

[Roland99]

70. I could see a short trip up over 10k before long.

couldn't hold, though.

[Demeter]

26. Good Morning, All!!

Love the cartoon! When will we see Greenspan crushed by the elephants?

And a Happy Black Tuesday to all---

[TalkingDog]

43. Black Tuesday Wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929">Black Tuesday

"Brother, Can You Spare a Dime," lyrics by Yip Harburg, music by Jay Gorney (1931)

They used to tell me I was building a dream, and so I followed the mob,
When there was earth to plow, or guns to bear, I was always there right on the job.
They used to tell me I was building a dream, with peace and glory ahead,
Why should I be standing in line, just waiting for bread?

Once I built a railroad, I made it run, made it race against time.
Once I built a railroad; now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime?
Once I built a tower, up to the sun, brick, and rivet, and lime;
Once I built a tower, now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime?

Once in khaki suits, gee we looked swell,
Full of that Yankee Doodly Dum,
Half a million boots went slogging through Hell,
And I was the kid with the drum!

Say, don't you remember, they called me Al; it was Al all the time.
Why don't you remember, I'm your pal? Buddy, can you spare a dime?

Once in khaki suits, gee we looked swell,
Full of that Yankee Doodly Dum,
Half a million boots went slogging through Hell,
And I was the kid with the drum!

Say, don't you remember, they called me Al; it was Al all the time.
Say, don't you remember, I'm your pal? Buddy, can you spare a dime?

[Demeter]

28. Monthly job losses cut across 41 states

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/21/news/economy/state_unemployment/index.htm



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of states suffering monthly job losses more than doubled in September, with Michigan losing the greatest number of jobs, according to a government report released Tuesday. More than 80% of states reported jobs disappearing in September, with Michigan suffering the highest losses...Private sector and government jobs fell in 41 states and the District of Columbia last month, the Labor Department said. By comparison, only 18 states reported monthly job losses in August.

The widespread job losses are a sign of a recession, said Bob Brusca, an economist at Fact and Opinion Economics in New York. "You expect to see job losses across the board, across the country," Brusca said.

Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that net payrolls nationwide declined by 159,000 in September, the ninth straight month the U.S. economy has lost jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from the prior month at 6.1%.

Eleven states reported jobless rates higher than the national average. Rhode Island posted the highest at 8.8%, an increase from 8.5% in August. Michigan had the second highest rate, 8.7%, which fell from 8.9% the month before.

Michigan lost 28,300 jobs in September and has lost 77,900 jobs in the past year. Georgia lost the second greatest number of jobs - 22,300 - down 61,100 over the past year. Louisiana shed 17,500 jobs in September, a figure not 'substantially' affected by Hurricane Ike, according to the report.
....
Nine states posted job gains. Missouri, the state reporting the largest monthly increase in employment, added 3,800 jobs. It was followed by Nebraska, Wyoming, West Virginia and Virginia.

[DemReadingDU]

29. GMAC Says Fed Grants Access to Commercial-Paper Plan

GMAC Says Fed Grants Access to Commercial-Paper Plan (Update3)

By Greg Bensinger and Ari Levy

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the money-losing auto finance and home-loan lender, said it was granted access to the U.S. Federal Reserve's new program to help unlock short-term commercial credit markets.

``We did apply and we were approved to participate,'' Gina Proia, a spokeswoman for the Detroit-based company, said in an interview. Proia said the company can tap the Fed program through its investment-grade New Center Asset Trust unit, which issues asset-backed commercial paper and has a capacity of about $10 billion.

The Fed's Commercial Paper Funding Facility may help ease a cash squeeze at GMAC, the primary lender to customers of General Motors Corp. GMAC Chief Executive Officer Al de Molina said in an e-mail to employees this month that the company has ``limited if any access to funding'' for its mortgage and auto-lending units. The Detroit-based company racked up $5.4 billion of losses in the past year.

The Fed began buying commercial paper from companies yesterday to reduce rates, lure back investors and unlock the market, which seized up last month following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. General Electric Co., which sold debt to the Fed yesterday, Korea Development Bank and Morgan Stanley are among several dozen companies that have signed up for the program, which was announced on Oct. 7.

Cerberus Capital Management LP, the New York-based buyout firm, owns 51 percent of GMAC and GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, owns the rest.


Chrysler Financial Corp. has also applied under the program, according to a person familiar with the request who asked not to be named because the auto loan company's plan hasn't been made public. Cerberus also owns Chrysler Financial.


more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahh__3XylWUE&refer=home

[DemReadingDU]

34. GMAC Wants to Become Bank After Getting Access to Fed Program

Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the money-losing auto finance and home-loan lender, is seeking to become a bank holding company after gaining access to the Federal Reserve's new program designed to unlock short-term commercial credit markets.

The Fed began buying commercial paper from companies this week to reduce interest rates and lure investors back to the market for short-term debt, which seized up last month following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Detroit-based GMAC said yesterday it was approved to participate in that program.

Becoming a bank holding company would make it easier for GMAC, the primary lender to customers of General Motors Corp., to participate in the Treasury Department's banking-industry rescue and quell doubts about the lender's survival. The firm could also get direct loans from the central bank and temporary debt guarantees from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Access to the Fed's Commercial Paper Funding Facility is ``a nice plus,'' said Pete Hastings, a fixed-income analyst with Morgan Keegan Inc. in Memphis, Tennessee. ``It's one of several steps they'll need to take in order to be able to continue.'' He recommends selling GMAC's debt, which totals more than $170 billion according to Bloomberg data.

The new sources of capital may help GMAC escape a cash squeeze after $5.4 billion of losses in the past year. Chief Executive Officer Al de Molina told employees this month that the lender has ``limited if any access to funding'' for its mortgage and auto-lending units. Cerberus Capital Management LP, the New York-based buyout firm, owns 51 percent of GMAC and GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, owns the rest.


The company owns federally insured GMAC Bank, with deposits of $16.9 billion as of June. Regulators ordered GMAC earlier this year to add $3 billion in credit to the bank and imposed new curbs that limited transactions among affiliates and required federal approval of any new senior bank executives for seven years.


more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN6_6AU7lyng&refer=home


So there is already a GMAC bank, but the GMAC auto finance/home-loan lender want to become a bank holding company.

[Demeter]

36. I Cannot Imagine Anyone Depositing Savings With GMBank

It's not like it's got a good brand going for it....

[InkAddict]

46. Tell me about the Railroad Retirement Act...seems that

things would be healthier for these automakers left only with other operating expenses of their product if the gov'mint reorged the largest "bill" automakers have - the retirement and disability payments to previous and on-going employees...

would something similar work here without handing them billions of bucks outright????

Regular workers could also be brought into the federal healthcare plan that Congress gets (which is, I think, what O/B are proposing for those without healthcare now????

[Demeter]

30. Wall Street's 'Disaster Capitalism for Dummies'

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/14-reasons-main-street-loses/story.aspx?guid={F63EC448-D9C1-4138-AC18-97BF0FE68EE3}&print=true&dist=printMidSection

14 reasons Main Street loses big while Wall Street sabotages democracy

By Paul B. Farrell



...I fear we're on the edge of a dangerous line between Wall Street's version of disaster capitalism and a toxic "merger of state and corporate power." The wolf is in sheep's clothing. Wall Street pretends we're a democracy. Yet America more closely resembles the kind of "corporatism" that Laurence W. Britt wrote about five years ago in Free Inquiry magazine.

We adapted his historical analysis of 14 key traits for today's discussion. Notice how they have a huge impact your investments and retirement:

1. Wall Street rich get first priority

Think "bailout." Wall Street's greedy con game spins out of control globally. Millions of homeowners misled, lose. Who gets hundreds of billions first? Wall Street's con men.

2. National security obsession

Think of the expansion of executive powers in the name of national security: Preemptive wars, wiretapping private citizens, Gitmo, torture; driven by a dark wealthy neocon elite.

3. Superpower with massive military

Think of our $3 trillion Iraq/Afghan War. Disaster capitalists love the thrill of military power. We outspend all nations, over half the federal budget to strut before the world.

4. Extreme nationalism

Signs are everywhere: Flags, lapel pins, "support the troops" slogans, all to get huge military budgets passed. Challenge them and you're un-American and unpatriotic.

5. Rally the masses by scapegoating enemies

Think "axis of evil," mushroom clouds, "Islamofascists," more terrorist attacks on the homeland. Propaganda creates "enemies" in the public's mind and distracts from real issues.

6. Corruption and cronyism

Think earmarks, no-bid defense contracts, paid mercenaries outnumbering military in Iraq, superlobbyist Jack Abramoff, biofuels, bridge to nowhere, millions donated to campaigns.

7. Obsession with crime

Think of prison-building as just another investment opportunity, rather than focusing on reforming our criminal justice system. Stoke irrational fear of criminals and extremists.

8. Labor and low wages

Think corporate earnings versus the wages paid to workers. No "trickling down," leaves more for tricklers: Rich insiders, stockholders. Wages dropping as CEO salaries skyrocket.

9. Contempt for human rights

Think of abuses of habeas corpus, loss of right to trial, bogus charges, plus "demonizing" the victims, all in the name of national defense and homeland security.

10. Mass media manipulation

Think of leaking false information, Joseph Wilson, Valerie Plame, Scooter Libby, Colin Powell's United Nation's testimony, Condoleezza Rice's mushroom clouds, WMDs, all to suppress the truth.

11. Obsession with sexism

Think of paternalism, antigays, antiabortion, subordinate women -- then codify the system as the law of the land reinforcing a male-dominated society, punish violators.

12. Disdain for intellectuals

Think of conservative intellectuals Francis Fukuyama and Bill Buckley. Contrast them to Sarah Palin and Joe Sixpack conservatism, Bush's funding cuts for arts and science education.

13. Religion in government

Think of all the faith-based programs versus antiscience in drug approvals, creationism vs. evolution, Ten Commandments enshrined in public buildings, public money to churches.

14. Fraudulent elections

Think of police and prosecutorial intimidation and threats to voters, challenging minority voters, ballots disappearing, party election officials committing outright fraud.

Yes, officially America is still a democracy. We have enough signs and rituals to support that illusion. But the truth is America has become a plutocracy run by and for the wealthy. And since Wall Street's Disaster Capitalism coup de grace, we are rapidly morphing into a dangerous new government.

[Demeter]

33. "The whole system is contracting" By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21087.htm



"The great inter-war slumps were not acts of God or of blind forces. They were the sure and certain result of the concentration of too much economic power in the hands of too few men (who) felt no responsibility to the nation." From the 1945 UK Labour manifesto Let Us Face The Future


...The US Treasury and Federal Reserve are now underwriting the entire financial system. The free market has been abandoned altogether. Everything from commercial paper to money markets is now backed by the "full faith and credit of the United States". Without that explicit government guarantee, the credit markets would still be frozen and the system would crash. But government guarantees do not address the real problem, which is toxic assets that must be accounted for and written down. All it does is take hundreds of billions of dollars in mortgage-backed garbage onto the nation's balance sheet and undermine the creditworthiness of the United States. Eventually, foreign central banks will see the folly of this maneuver and refuse to buy more US debt. When that happens, there will be a run on the dollar and a major dislocation in the bond market. Then, the financial system will grind to a standstill once again....

Paulson knows what the banks are up to; after all, these are his friends. The truth is, the $125 billion was not given to the banks to soften the effects of the recession or increase lending. It was given to make the strong banks even stronger so they could monopolize the industry. Paulson's real plan is "more consolidation" and less competition, or as economist Michael Hudson says, "Big fish eat little fish". The Treasury Secretary is using his authority to reward his friends rather than doing what is best for the country....

Events are now unfolding so quickly, they're impossible to follow. But this much is clear, the wheels have fallen off the cart. The Fed has lost control of the system. On Monday, Bernanke announced the creation of the Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), which will provide $550 billion in liquidity to U.S. money market investors. It is another in a long list of steps to try to provide liquidity to a system that is burning through trillions of dollars of credit via the deleveraging of hedge funds and asset downgrades. Of course, the Fed does not really have the money it has committed. It will have to expand its balance sheet, issue more Treasurys, and hope that foreign central banks do not see that the US financial system is headed for the rocks....

Last week, banks borrowed a record $437 billion per day, topping the previous week's $420 billion per day a week earlier. Hundreds of banks cannot meet their capital requirements without regular low interest loans from the Federal Reserve. The banking system is in shambles. The FDIC needs to determine which banks can be saved and which need to be shut down, otherwise the insolvent banks will use the money they get from the Treasury on risky bets to dig their way out of bankruptcy. Without restrictions on how they can issue credit, many of the banks will engage in the same reckless behavior and speculation that brought on the current calamity.

92 year old Anna Schwartz, who co-authored "A Monetary History of the United States" with Milton Friedman, said in a recent Wall Street Journal interview that Paulson and Bernanke "should not be recapitalizing firms that should be shut down." Rather, "firms that made wrong decisions should fail.... By keeping otherwise insolvent banks afloat, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have actually prolonged the crisis." At the same time, they have not alleviated the uncertainty among lenders "that would-be borrowers have the resources to repay them." This is the very heart of the matter; the distrust will remain until the bankrupt institutions are shut down and confidence is restored. The good banks have to be strengthened, the bad banks have to be closed, deposits have to be insured, foreclosures have to be reduced (to stabilize home prices), and consumers need immediate stimulus (including food stamps, extended unemployment insurance, infrastructure spending and aid to states) to rev up the economy. All of these have to be done as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to the economy and greater personal suffering. According to an estimate by the UNs International Labour Organisation (ILO) "Twenty million jobs will disappear by the end of next year as a result of the impact of the financial crisis on the global economy...Construction, real estate, financial services, and the auto sector are most likely to be hit, according to the ILO's estimate which is based on International Monetary Fund projections for the world economy." It could be worse if the Bernanke and Paulson botch the rescue.

The FDIC's Sheila Bair has been the one "bright light" in the ongoing financial train-wreck. She has done a first-rate job of closing "sick" banks and renegotiating mortgages. Last week, Bair blasted Paulson for focusing all his attention on the banks and financial institutions instead of homeowners, many of who are now facing foreclosure. In an article in the Wall Street Journal, she said: "We're attacking it (the crisis) at the institution level as opposed to the borrower level, and it's the borrowers that are defaulting. That is what's causing the distress at the institution level...So why not tackle the borrower problem?"

Unlike Paulson, Bair seems to grasp that the hemorrhaging in the financial sector cannot be stopped unless the rate of foreclosures is slowed and housing prices stabilize. The FDIC chief has taken a sensible approach to the crisis by writing down the face-value of mortgages and putting homeowners in conventional 30-year fixed rate loans that make it possible for them to avoid foreclosure. According to Bloomberg, "(Bair) now has the authority to offer loan guarantees that could encourage modifications by mortgage-servicing companies in an effort to avert foreclosures. The new financial rescue plan "allows the government to set standards for mortgage changes and offer guarantees for loans that meet the standards." This gets to the root of the larger problem which is stopping the slide in housing prices so that the mortgage-backed securities market can normalize.

The actions of the Fed, the Treasury and the FDIC are likely to cost in excess of $2 trillion. That does not include the trillions in market capitalization that are wiped out by plummeting home and stock prices. Nor does it include the incalculable suffering from rising unemployment, falling living standards, and personal hardship. Eventually, the Fed's emergency measures will result in higher taxes, soaring deficits and slower growth. As America's "consumer-based" economy flags and the recession deepens, capital will flee US Treasurys and securities and create a funding crisis. This may be hard to imagine now that the dollar is strengthening and US Treasurys appear to be in great demand, but the handwriting is already on the wall.

Brad Setser explains the dollar's surprising reversal in his latest blog-entry: "The dollar’s rise since July is part of a reversal in longstanding investment trends that prevailed during years of plentiful borrowing, strong growth and low financial-market volatility. “Essentially, every large trade that built up a head of steam in the go-go years has blown up or is in the process of blowing up,” wrote Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital, in a report to clients. “That goes for almost every asset class.”(Brad Setsers Blog)

The recent surge in US Treasurys is also misleading, much of it having to do with terrified investors that are dumping their shares in stocks, mutual funds and hedge funds for the perceived safety of US debt. Foreign investors, however, seem to be losing their enthusiasm for Treasurys as America's future continues to darken.

The net foreign purchases of long term securities in August was a mere $14 billion following an even more dismal $8.6 billion in July; not nearly enough to meet $55 billion per month the US needs to balance its consumption of foreign goods. Even worse, the purchases of long-term US securities "went negative" by for foreign private investors (by $8.8 billion) which means that the dollar is being artificially propped up by foreign central banks to avert a disorderly unwinding of the currency.

[Wednesdays]

49. This needs its own post on the Greatest Page

Nail, meet hammer. Spot on.

[UpInArms]

31. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.725 Change -0.501 (-0.64%)

U.S. GDP on Tap - Will Fears of a Recession Drag Down the Dollar?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/trading_news_reports/U_S__GDP_on_Tap___1225278642121.html

The advanced GDP reading for the U.S. is expected to show that the economy contracted 0.5% in the third quarter. Economic activity has weakened significantly throughout the second half of the year as the effects of the fiscal stimulus checks abate, and conditions may only get worse as the jobless rate continues to rise.

Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)

What’s Expected
Time of release: 10/30/2008 12:30 GMT, 08:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD
Expected: -0.5%
Previous: 2.8%

<snip>

The advanced GDP reading for the U.S. is expected to show that the economy contracted 0.5% in the third quarter. Economic activity has weakened significantly throughout the second half of the year as the effects of the fiscal stimulus checks abate, and conditions may only get worse as the jobless rate continues to rise. Non-farm payrolls fell for the ninth consecutive month in September as the economy lost 159K jobs from the previous month, while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing report weakened for the second month as the index plunged to 41.8 from 49.7. The lack of recovery in the housing market paired with narrowing opportunities for employment have certainly pushed consumers to cutback on consumption as retail sales slipped 1.2% in September. In addition, durable goods orders plunged 4.8% from July, while domestic vehicle sales dipped to 9.6M from 10.4M in August. Fading demands from the domestic economy has certainly fuel fears of a recession as private-sector consumption accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, but arguments have been made that the recent drop in oil prices should help consumers to deal with the slowdown in the economy. After peaking to a high of $147 a barrel in July, crude oil prices have fallen drastically over the past two months to hold below $65 a barrel. Cheaper gas prices paired with the increased efforts by the U.S. Treasury and the Fed could help to stave off further downturns in the economy as the growth outlook remains highly uncertain in the near-term. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar may face increased selling pressures as market participants expect economic activity in the world’s largest economy to deteriorate further over the coming months, but the greenback may continue to reap the benefit of its safe haven status as concerns of a global recession intensify.

Despite the slowdown in the economy, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen against its major currency counterparts, and a better than expected GDP reading could spur increased buying pressures for the greenback. Therefore, annualized growth of 0.1% or better would certainly favor a bullish dollar trade (short GBPUSD), and we will look for a red, five-minute candle following the release to confirm entry on two lots of the pound-dollar. Our initial stop will be set at the nearby swing high (or reasonable distance) and this risk will determine our first target. Our second target will be based on discretion(with a mind to support and to preserve profit we will move the stop on the second lot to break even when the first half of the trade reaches its target.

On the other hand, a negative GDP reading would only dampen the growth forecast for the U.S., which could drag on the greenback as the world’s largest economy heads into a recession. As a result, we will follow the same strategy for a short position as the long trade mentioned above, just in reverse.

...more...

A Fed Rate Cut Supports Bullish Euro Technical Outlook

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/A_Fed_Rate_Cut_Supports_1225258275041.html



The FOMC is expected to cut rates by 50 bps bringing the overnight rate down to %1.00. Easing of this depth is almost always bearish for the local currency and we expect the same reaction for the dollar today. Although many feel that the reduction will not add any significant impact to the current problems given the amount of liquidity that has been pumped into the financial system. However, markets are expecting such a move and Chairman Bernanke has yet to disappoint them. Euro technical outlook is calling for further gains for the EURUSD A return of risk appetite has sent the dollar lower and after yesterday’s second largest gain in the Dow’s history we expect to see the bullish momentum continue into the European markets which will continue to lend Euro support. However, be aware that once the Fed eases traders will focus on the upcoming easing of the ECB. If the Fed follows the decision with a hawkish statement then we could see the EURUSD quickly reverse its gains.

...more...

[depakid]

66. If one had made a play on the Aussie on Monday morning...

when it was at 58.9, one might have done pretty well.

Currently it's above 67, partly based on the rebound in commodities.

Analysts are all over the place on the short to midterm outlook; but suffice it to say that 58.9 was ridiculously low considering the overall conditions and relative measures of the two economies. Clasic overshoot.

[gopbuster]

32. Today will be a good gauge for how much buying power

conviction and strength is out there to take it on up over the near to mid term

Actually, a close above 9265 today would help even if it cycles back down after to put some strength into the chart.

We may be still too low off the bottom to do it though,,,may need more cycling time.

[DemReadingDU]

37. Columbus, Oh - National Century Trial Tuesday's update

10/28/08 National Century's Poulson: 'I didn't do anything that was illegal'
Tuesday, October 28, 2008 1:02 PM
By Jodi Andes

Lance K. Poulsen, former chief executive officer of the company involved in the nation's largest case of private-sector fraud, took the stand in his own defense this morning.

Poulsen, 65, is on trial on 13 counts of fraud tied to the collapse of National Century Financial Enterprises.

He was the third defense witness. He took the stand in U.S. District Court in Columbus about 11 a.m. and shifted his body to face the jury as he gave an overview of his family, from Denmark, and his business background.

He said he was under a lot of pressure from prosecutors to plead guilty but didn't, although he was tempted.

"First of all, I didn't do anything that was illegal," he said.

"I need to be the voice of the other 350 people who didn't do anything, and we have to tell our story. This trial had to occur, and I had to be here for this. "

Federal prosecutor Leo Wise objected to some parts of Poulsen's testimony, including his response to this question, from defense attorney William Terpening: "For the past year, where have you been living?"

"I have been living in a not-good place," Poulsen replied, his voice cracking.

Federal Judge Algenon L. Marbley heard Wise's objection in a sidebar conference at the bench, but jurors didn't.

"I have been in Ross County jail in Chillicothe," Poulsen then said. "I have never been in jail before, and I hope none of you have been or ever will be."

Poulsen told jurors he has been serving a 10-year sentence for witness tampering and obstruction of justice. He is appealing those convictions, which stem from an attempt to bribe Sherry Gibson, a former National Century employee who was the government's key witness in the case.

He said his time in jail has been life-altering.

"I am never going to quickly judge anyone in my entire life," he said. "I do look different at people accused of a crime."


National Century bought accounts receivable from health-care providers and collected them for a fee. The company raised up-front money by selling secured notes to private investors.

Federal prosecutors are alleging that the company collapsed because National Century gave millions in unsecured loans to health-care providers for several years and did not disclose that the company was, in many cases, buying risky accounts receivable.

When Dublin-based National Century collapsed in November 2002, investors lost billions. Some of that has been recovered, but losses to date remain close to $2 billion, prosecutors have said.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/10/28/apoul.html?sid=101


10/29 08 'I didn't do anything illegal,' says former CEO
Wednesday, October 29, 2008 3:09 AM
By Jodi Andes
updates from previous article
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2008/10/29/poulsen29.ART_ART_10-29-08_C8_POBNSRM.html?sid=101


10/28/08 National Century’s Poulsen takes the stand
Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 5:56 PM
by Kevin Kemper

National Century Financial Enterprises Inc. operated in a complex financial world that the government has oversimplified.

That was the gist of Lance Poulsen’s testimony Tuesday to a federal jury that will decide if he is guilty or innocent of money laundering, conspiracy and securities fraud charges. Poulsen, the 65-year-old former CEO and founder of Dublin-based National Century, took the witness stand Tuesday in a final attempt to clear his name.

He has been standing trial in U.S. District Court in Columbus since Oct. 1, the sixth National Century executive to stand trial over the company’s 2002 collapse, which the government alleges resulted in a $2.84 billion loss for investors. National Century specialized in buying accounts receivable from doctors’ offices and hospitals at a discount in exchange for quick cash. The company would then package the accounts receivable into bonds to sell on the open market.

The government has alleged that, in addition to buying legitimate accounts receivable, Poulsen used investor money to give unsecured, multimillion-dollar advances to companies he owned.

On the witness stand, Poulsen disputed those allegations. Charges of overfunding are misleading, Poulsen said, because National Century checked with attorneys and auditors to make sure it could purchase what he called “pro forma” receivables from nursing homes or hospitals. In the case of nursing homes, Poulsen said pro forma receivables were expected revenue that the facility had not yet billed, but would about a month later. Because those nursing homes needed money immediately, National Century paid them in advance of getting the billings.

Poulsen also rebutted testimony given earlier in the trial by Sherry Gibson, a former executive, who said she altered investor reports and the company’s books to hide shortfalls. Poulsen said auditors were well aware of how the company operated, and that sometimes because of funding pro forma receivables, National Century would need to estimate in investor reports what those receivables would be.

Gibson never had access to the company’s general ledger, so she couldn’t have been able to change those books, Poulsen said.

He also sought to downplay the role Gibson had at National Century. He said the two had an almost father-daughter type of relationship that sometimes resulted in heated arguments where Gibson thought she was right.

“While Sherry sometimes thought she ran the company, she really didn’t,” Poulsen said with a chuckle.

Over and over Poulsen told jurors that auditors, bank trustees and company attorneys all knew every aspect of National Century’s business. As proof, he talked about the company’s efforts to go public, which would have invited greater scrutiny, its years of unqualified clean audits and the careful research National Century did of all bond issues.

“We were kind of the due diligence queens,” Poulsen said.

Earlier in the day, Poulsen began his testimony by telling jurors the story of his life, describing it in almost Dickensian terms.

“I woke up one morning and found my parents were Danish,” Poulsen said of being born into a family of immigrants from Denmark who lived in a poor neighborhood on the south side of Chicago.

Poulsen said he spent many afternoons after school with his father, a janitor, at a local church helping to operate the boiler while his mother ran a boarding house. To go to college, Poulsen won a Junior Achievement scholarship and made ends meet by moonlighting as a moving and storage company salesman. After earning bachelor’s and master’s degrees, Poulsen ran a half-dozen companies before starting National Century.

Poulsen also admitted to jurors that he had been sentenced to 10 years in prison this year after being found guilty for attempting to bribe Gibson into changing her testimony. He told jurors the government pressured him to plead guilty to charges in this trial after he was found guilty of witness tampering, but he rejected it. He told the jury he didn’t commit any crimes and he needed to act as a voice for the 350 National Century employees who didn’t do anything wrong but haven’t been able to tell their story.

Throughout his testimony, Poulsen tried to maintain eye contact with jurors, but only a few were responsive.

The government is expected to cross examine Poulsen on Wednesday.
http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/10/27/daily15.html


link backwards to Monday's articles, and older
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3569229&mesg_id=3569358

[enough]

44. Great SMW thread this morning, and every morning.

As usual, there are numerous posts here today that deserve to be recommended in their own right. I have learned so much from reading DU's Stock Market Watch over the past couple of years. If one really took in all the information and analysis that's available here on a regular basis, one would be well-educated indeed. Thanks to all!

[InkAddict]

50. NCR moving 40 to 50 jobs to Georgia

http://www.daytondailynews.com/b/content/oh/story/business/2008/10/28/ddn102808ncrweb.html

NCR Corp. is transferring a business headquarters and 40 to 50 local jobs to Peachtree City, Ga., the company said Tuesday, Oct. 28. The state of Georgia is celebrating NCR's plans to create 916 jobs in the state over the next two years.

Of those jobs, 40 to 50 will come from Dayton, said Lorraine Russell, an NCR spokeswoman.

Additionally, NCR's Worldwide Customer Services business headquarters will move from Dayton to Georgia, the state said. Georgia government required that the headquarters be moved from Ohio in exchange for incentives to NCR, Russell said. Those incentives included a $8 million grant and other tax credits based on number of jobs created and real estate tax credits, Russell said.


Hey, OhioChick, did you see? More job loss for Ohio. Will NCR really ask those 40-50 if they want to move...been there, done that w/shades of Carlson and Berry in their moves away from Dayton...didn't happen either time they told the media that the corp would give workers a choice to move or not to move, that is the question.

[Coventina]

53. China shares retreat as gloomy sentiment prevails

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gUwglaVKa4rA8T7lZA0w4hBgKnrgD9442KT81

SHANGHAI, China (AP) — Chinese shares fell back Wednesday, as a brief-lived rally fizzled amid a resurgence of pessimism over the economic outlook.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 2.94 percent, or 52.01 points, to 1,719.81. It had gained 2.8 percent the day before, tracking a regional recovery. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index shrank 2.26 percent on Wednesday to 472.36.

The volatility in mainland China's markets reflect their deeper weaknesses, analysts said.

"This is just like a heavily sick person who should rest. Jumping up briefly is certainly not healthy," said Mao Nan, a strategist for Oriental Securities.

*****************

Ha ha! I like the metaphor!

Good morning all!

[Coventina]

54. Intel Investing in China

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122521879005776795.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Wall Street Journal

BEIJING -- Intel Corp.'s venture-capital unit doesn't plan to slow its activity in China despite the global crisis, executives said Tuesday as the fund announced three new investments in the country.

Cadol Cheung, managing director of the Asia and Pacific region for Intel Capital, said, "We believe a company with innovative technology will survive to be successful after the crisis is over."

Echoing that sentiment, Intel President and Chief Executive Paul Otellini said at the media briefing that the global economic crisis will "not change our investment profile. I would expect to continue all our investments that we have committed to in China and elsewhere around the world."

Intel Capital will invest $20 million in Shenzhen-based Trony Solar Holdings Co., a maker of thin-film solar-power equipment. Intel Capital said it also signed agreements to invest in NP Holdings Ltd., a maker of storage systems for renewable energy, and Viewhigh Technologies Ltd., a maker of health-care-related software. Intel didn't provide financial details of those two investments.

[antigop]

58. 401(k) plans could be facing total revamp

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081029/REG/810299989/1036

House Democrat George Miller is calling for a soup-to-nuts re-examination of 401(k) plans that could lead to a radical overhaul of the popular defined contribution plans.

One proposal under consideration would eliminate the tax-favored treatment of contributions to 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts; instead, workers would receive a $600 tax credit that would offset contributions to a new mandatory guaranteed plan that would be managed and administered by the federal government. Another proposal would extend 401(k) plans to all workers.

“Maybe we are at a time where fiddling at the margins is not going to serve the American people,” Mr. Miller, D-Calif., said at a House Education and Labor Committee hearing in San Francisco on Oct. 22.
...
A less radical idea under consideration would permit all workers to contribute to “universal” 401(k) plans.

At the hearing, Jacob S. Hacker, a professor political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said the investment default for the universal 401(k) would be a low-cost target-date fund, paid out in annuities at retirement.

“In essence, universal 401(k)s along these lines would bring back something close to a guaranteed private pension,” referring to the plan’s annuitization feature, Mr. Hacker said in his testimony.

Notice how the employer groups want to keep the current system:

“We believe the current employer-sponsored system is a good one that should be built on,” added Jan Jacobson, senior counsel, retirement policy, American Benefits Council, Washington.

[Hugin]

93. Uh, am I missing something here or would a "'universal' 401(k) plan'...

be Social Security?

Man, their hatred of Social Security is beyond pathological.

[Demeter]

101. "Social Security" Without the Defined Benefit, Maybe

The whole notion that one can "invest" so as to con somebody else to goof and thereby fund your retirement is obscene at best.

[Robbien]

60. Hedge Fund Said Drops $30m An Hour For The Last 26 Trading Days

. . . Eddie Lampert's hedge fund ESL Investments has seen its holdings in eight of its largest investments (including AutoZone, AutoNation, Citi, Home Depot and Sears Holding) fall an average of $193m in each trading day in the last 26, which translates into a paper loss of $30m an hour (allowing for a 6.5 hour trading day) over the period.

In the meantime, Bloomberg reports that, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Huw van Steenis, US hedge fund managers may lose up to 15% of assets to withdrawals by the year-end, while their European counterparts could see withdrawals up at 25%.

The news agency also quotes Citadel Investment Group founder Kenneth Griffin, who said: 'I have never seen a market as full of panic as I've seen in the last seven or eight weeks'.

http://news.hereisthecity.com/news/business_news/8396.cntns

[specimenfred1984]

61. Here's a picture of the guy people trust with their money

Mr. Wall Street trader:

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/closing-bell-New-York-Stock-Exchange-October-28/photo//081029/photos_bs/2008_10_28t170933_329x450_us_markets_stocks//s:/ap/20081029/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AjYTwoN9agdvXpf.QmpTMF9v24cA

[TalkingDog]

62. Reply:

We own you man!!!:




Hey, I did my part:

[spinbaby]

63. Rate cut yet?

Some kind of whiplash going on in the markets.

[Roland99]

64. 2:32pm - WTF do they want? FREE money? Fed cuts rate to 1%. Markets drop.

DJIA 8,994.23 -70.89 -0.78%
Nasdaq 1,648.76 -0.71 -0.04%
S&P 500 935.06 -5.45 -0.58%
Dow Util 370.36 -8.33 -2.20%
NYSE 5,788.69 +55.24 +0.96%
AMEX 1,444.66 +19.00 +1.33%
Russell 2000 487.45 +4.90 +1.02%
Semcond 225.21 -7.20 -3.10%
Gold future 754.00 +13.50 +1.82%
30-Year Bond 4.15% -0.02 -0.58%
10-Year Bond 3.77% -0.06 -1.44%

[TalkingDog]

68. I'll take some o' that free money.... oh...wait. I'm not a banker

nevermind.....

[specimenfred1984]

69. FED speaks, FED pumps

Here it comes, hope you like fascism.

[truthisfreedom]

71. A bit of a rally? Looks like wallstreetdigest will be saying "buy!" soon...

I watch this guy's column... he's been right on for a couple of months.

http://www.wallstreetdigest.com/hotline.php

[truthisfreedom]

99. Nope. He remained silent. He was looking for anything up, and it's just not happening yet.

sigh.

[Roland99]

72. 3:29pm - Post 3pm Pump

DJIA 9,302.55 +237.43 +2.62%
Nasdaq 1,700.18 +50.71 +3.07%
S&P 500 965.15 +24.64 +2.62%
Dow Util 379.59 +0.90 +0.24%
NYSE 5,969.70 +236.25 +4.12%
AMEX 1,472.11 +46.45 +3.26%
Russell 2000 504.59 +22.04 +4.57%
Gold future 754.00 +13.50 +1.82%
30-Year Bond 4.24% +0.07 +1.58%
10-Year Bond 3.87% +0.05 +1.41%

[Imperialism Inc.]

73. Wonder what the GDP numbers tomorrow will do to things.

[specimenfred1984]

74. Just a quick lil' ole 300 point drop there in the last few minutes

to wipe out every sucker who bought the fascist Fed pump.

[Roland99]

75. At the bell and off a cliff!

DJIA 8,928.68 -136.44 -1.51%
Nasdaq 1,652.77 +3.30 +0.20%
S&P 500 924.84 -15.67 -1.67%
Dow Util 366.22 -12.47 -3.29%
NYSE 5,768.97 +35.52 +0.62%
AMEX 1,444.99 +19.33 +1.36%
Russell 2000 490.04 +7.49 +1.55%
Semcond 225.85 -1.93 -0.83%
Gold future 754.00 +13.50 +1.82%
30-Year Bond 4.24% +0.07 +1.58%
10-Year Bond 3.87% +0.05 +1.41%

[Imperialism Inc.]

76. What goes up must come down!

[spinbaby]

78. Down just a bit

Could be worse, all things considered. After Obama wins, I'm planning to move some of my 401k back into stocks--moved it out two years ago. Call me optimistic.

[specimenfred1984]

82. The markets won't take off until the Obama admin says they're arresting a few

dozen corrupt repukes, revoking a few dozen criminal repuke "laws" and, disposing of every one of Chimp's signing statements. Add withdrawing from Iraqi hell and closing chimp's personal torture camp GITMO and America will once again be a place to invest.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

84. Hear Hear!

I think you covered it! But how about start investigations into criminal conduct of bu$h and cheney - add rove in for good measure!

[MsLeopard]

97. Undo his two Supreme Court appointments

too - while we're rescinding signing statements and holding the crooks accountable.

[gopbuster]

88. WOW....check it out......

The INDU hit 9363

Check out the downtrend tline from 9/29 high and close down to the intraday high at 10/03 at 10796 and extended on down

WOW..how the f*** did that happen we touched it and headed back down!

They should be put in jail!

Gosh! Supply and demand dynamics must not matter! Jeez!

Imagine that!

Two Great Ladies!

[gopbuster]

89. Scratching head! nt

[gopbuster]

91. Wow..how did that happen? I don't know...must have had something to do with criminal

activity!

Hmmmmm

[gopbuster]

92. Gosh...nevermind your mutual fund 401k managers repositioning themselves

and your sister inlaws money...nooooooo

couldn't have had anything to do with that!


Probably just criminals and the occult

[gopbuster]

95. Right on the freaking money..more to come...stay tuned..nt

[gopbuster]

96. Youngun...i agree with you...but where we parted was when you hammered

me about that the supply and demand dynamics don't matter.

Everyone here agrees and understands that the criminal elements, the Jekyll Island crowd is a problem. I posted the "Money Masters" this AM and believe me, I have followed this for a long, long time.

It's been that way forever, has it not?

BUT

There are other facets involved when it comes to the stock market itself is concerned and your continued narrow sided rhetoric may serve to sidetrack others in their ability in obtaining their perspective, in a balanced rational way, to the way the market really works.

Your humorous side makes me laugh

But your condescending angry side leaves something to be desired and serves to bring out the worst in me as well.

Lets just agree to disagree and get along in a rational way.

Just a little rational respect for each other goes a long way in productive discussion.

[DemReadingDU]

79. This feels like Twilight Zone

:crazy:

[TheWatcher]

80. Like CLOCKWORK.

The same thing happened on Monday as well.

However even after the close the Fairies still tried to jam it back above the psychological level of 9000. :rofl: So childish, and so predictable. This is getting stupid.

So, it appears to me that yesterday has been exposed for the coordinated, synthetic, nonsensical Carnival Based On Nothing that it was.

As for the rate Cut, I really don't see what purpose it serves. These moves didn't work in 2000, they didn't work earlier in the year, and they won't work now. And with the Banks laughing all the way to themselves and hoarding their newly stolen Tax Payer Money ("Loans, we never said we'd make LOANS"), it won't make a difference if they cut Rates to ZERO.

So I guess the question is what reflation/Bubble tactic are they going to try now to engineer an even bigger catastrophe 5-10 years from now, assuming it's even possible any longer?

We now can easily figure out that much the rise from 2003-2008 was synthetic Bullshit based on another Bubble that was created to cause a false Boom.

But what kinds of rabbits are left in their hat when the whole PLANET is insolvent, and whole countries are going Bankrupt. And for those who are biding their time until the IMF steps in, just ask Iceland how THAT is working out for them.

Pitchforks and Torches for the LOT of them, I say.

And for the CNBC Pump Monkeys flagellating all over themselves that "The Fed Has Waved it's Magic Wand And Saved Us Again!" and waving their Pom Pom's that "THIS is the Bottom!", why don't you PERSONALLY tell that to the 40,000 Postal Workers who are getting laid off as per announcement today? (The FIRST Mass Layoff in their history I believe.) Tell THEM how "good" all of this is.

:grr:

(Sorry for all the emotion, but I am really getting tired of 95% of us having to suffer, because the other 5% want to play God and treat the world like a psychotic game of Monopoly.)

[Roland99]

81. Faeries failed...

DJIA 8,987.86 -77.26 -0.85%
Nasdaq 1,657.21 +7.74 +0.47%
S&P 500 930.09 -10.42 -1.11%
Dow Util 366.87 -11.82 -3.12%
NYSE 5,774.90 +41.45 +0.72%
AMEX 1,428.19 +2.53 +0.18%
Russell 2000 490.88 +8.33 +1.73%
Semcond 225.94 -6.46 -2.78%
Gold future 754.00 +13.50 +1.82%
30-Year Bond 4.24% +0.07 +1.58%
10-Year Bond 3.87% +0.05 +1.41%

[TheWatcher]

83. Indeed they did.

But they did manage an 80 point move form the 4PM Close.

Tsk, Tsk. Taking orders after 4 PM is against the rules Boys.

But Pisani will just sit there and smile and tell us it's all just "normal settling."

As for tomorrow, Roland. Who knows? Let's flip a coin and throw a dart. This Market is so far flung into the Twilight Zone it's hard to tell what they might do next.

Do we get another Carnival Of BS or do we only pay attention to the first 4 minutes of the day and the last 10? Will GM Finally go Bankrupt? Will the Banks start lending their Stolen Loot? What new technique to fudge the Unemployment Numbers will be used tomorrow?

Find out the answers to these questions and MORE, on the next exciting episode of

"The Big Money"

Big money got a heavy hand
Big money take control
Big money got a mean streak
Big money got no soul...

[Demeter]

102. Definition of Insanity

Somebody must be getting something out of it.

[Danascot]

85. Great Bailout Cartoon

Apologies if this has been posted ... I just happened on it.

[TrogL]

86. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-09-18 Thursday, September 18 0.934929 USD
2008-09-19 Friday, September 19 0.955201 USD
2008-09-22 Monday, September 22 0.963113 USD
2008-09-23 Tuesday, September 23 0.965717 USD
2008-09-24 Wednesday, September 24 0.96609 USD
2008-09-25 Thursday, September 25 0.967305 USD
2008-09-26 Friday, September 26 0.965997 USD
2008-09-29 Monday, September 29 0.962186 USD
2008-09-30 Tuesday, September 30 0.943663 USD
2008-10-01 Wednesday, October 1 0.942774 USD
2008-10-02 Thursday, October 2 0.928591 USD
2008-10-03 Friday, October 3 0.924642 USD
2008-10-06 Monday, October 6 0.906865 USD
2008-10-07 Tuesday, October 7 0.904568 USD
2008-10-08 Wednesday, October 8 0.889205 USD
2008-10-09 Thursday, October 9 0.870853 USD
2008-10-10 Friday, October 10 0.840336 USD
2008-10-13 Monday, October 13 0.840336 USD
2008-10-14 Tuesday, October 14 0.862143 USD
2008-10-15 Wednesday, October 15 0.84717 USD
2008-10-16 Thursday, October 16 0.83661 USD
2008-10-17 Friday, October 17 0.846024 USD
2008-10-20 Monday, October 20 0.834934 USD
2008-10-21 Tuesday, October 21 0.819135 USD
2008-10-22 Wednesday, October 22 0.800256 USD
2008-10-23 Thursday, October 23 0.795355 USD
2008-10-24 Friday, October 24 0.785238 USD
2008-10-27 Monday, October 27 0.773096 USD
2008-10-28 Tuesday, October 28 0.772678 USD
2008-10-29 Wednesday, October 29 0.812876 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.7940 0.8239 0.7940 0.8157 +0.0411 +5.31% 15:01 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.7914 0.8230 0.7914 0.8145 +0.0398 +5.14% set 14:59 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8022 0.8022 0.8022 0.8174 +0.0403 +5.17% set 09:55 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.8186 +0.0406 +5.22% set 15:06 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.8196 +0.0410 +5.27% set 15:06 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.7000 0.7000 0.7000 0.8198 +0.0411 +5.28% set 15:06 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8200 +0.0412 +5.29% set 15:06 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8127 0.8127 0.8127 0.8127 -0.0085 -1.04%  
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.6035 1.6377 1.6035 1.6275 +0.0535 +3.44% 
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.79730 0.79730 0.78910 0.78925 -0.01065 -1.33%     
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 122.55 126.13 122.55 124.35 +1.72 +1.44%      

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian dollar closed up 435 points at .8182 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Strong follow-through buying on Thursday or Friday would provide the bulls with fresh upside technical momentum.

Analysis

HOLY CRAP!!!! 4 cent jump during the day!!!!

[ozone_man]

98. We'll be back!

It looks more like 6% in one day to me. I guess the Fed cut and stock rally will do that. When the euphoria dies, the dollar will rise again.

[ozymandius]

87. closing numbers and blather

Dow 8,990.96 Down 74.16 (0.82%)
Nasdaq 1,657.21 Up 7.74 (0.47%)
S&P 500 930.09 Down 10.42 (1.11%)
10-Yr Bond 3.874% Up 0.054
NYSE Volume 7,193,214,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,790,546,000

4:40 pm : The stock market settled with a 1.1% loss Wednesday after late-session surge made in the final hour following an FOMC rate cut was reversed in the final minutes of trade after headlines hit the wires that raised concerns regarding General Electric's (GE 19.20, -0.29) revenue in 2009. Meanwhile, commodities made one of the strongest gains on record as the dollar got hammered.

Specifically, the S&P 500 was up 3.1% with 10 minutes left in the session and then quickly sank to a 1.8% loss before settling with a decline of 1.1%. Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed with gains of 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

With regard to GE, Dow Jones reported that the conglomerate is aiming to keep 2009 profit the same as 2008, even if revenue declines 10-15%. The profit outlook is good news given the current consensus estimate anticipates a 9% decline year-over-year. However, the revenue view doesn't say much about the economic outlook and implies that GE will cost cuts to meet its profit goal.

This was disappointing to the market when thinking of the demand outlook for this global company, sparking a sweeping decline in other multi-national companies in the final minutes of the trading session.

After the close, however, CNBC noted that GE said the comment was not new and shares of GE were trading up in the after hours session.

The Federal Open Market Committee cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 1.00%. This marks the lowest level since June 2004. The discount rate was reduced by 50 basis points to 1.25%. Both actions were unanimously approved. The Fed said the pace of economic activity has "markedly" slowed as consumer expenditures declined, while inflation pressures are expected to moderate due to the drop in commodity prices and weaker economic prospects.

The FOMC believes that over time this action, along with the Fed's other measures, will help promote moderate economic growth. The announcement did not give any surprises, and left the possibility for further rate cuts.

Separately, the Fed established temporary currency swap lines with the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore. The move is meant to improve liquidity and complement the Fed's current swap lines with ten other central banks.

Seven of the ten sectors posted a loss.

Consumer staples stocks trailed the broader market even though Procter & Gamble (PG 61.33, -1.90), Kraft (KFT 28.47, -0.41 ) and Kellogg (K 50.02, -0.66) all reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings results.

The telecom (-3.3%) sector was laggard after Qwest (Q 2.33, -0.27) reported worse than expected quarterly earnings and said it was cutting 1,200 jobs, or 3% of its workforce.

The consumer discretionary sector outperformed on a relative basis with a decline of 0.1%. Casino and gaming stocks soared 11.5% after MGM Mirage (MGM 13.75, +3.42) reported an earnings drop and outlook that was better-than-feared.

Commodities rallied across the board in a rebound trade that was compounded by a 2.7% drop in the dollar. Crude oil prices spiked 9.8% to $68.90 per barrel, getting an added lift after the government's weekly energy report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in crude inventory levels.

As a result, the energy (+2.3%) and material (+2.7%) posted the largest gain this session.

In economic news, September durable goods orders rose 0.8%, better than the expected decline of 1.1%. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 1.1%, which was better than the expected decline of 1.5%. However, nondefensive capital goods excluding aircraft, which is a proxy for business investments, fell 1.4%. DJ30 -74.16 NASDAQ +7.74 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +1.7% SP400 +1.8% SP500 -10.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/2.78 bln/1138 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1954/1.62 bln/1145