AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

[fjc]

Source: AP



AP presidential poll: McCain gains, drawing even with Obama with two weeks until Election Day

LIZ SIDOTI
AP News

Oct 22, 2008 12:23 EST

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch....

Read more: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/10/ap_presidential_poll_all_even.php

[villager]

1. Not news on DU at this point -- it's AP deciding who is a "likely" voter...

n/t

[Shoelace]

57. 45% of respondents were Evangelicals? This poll is FAKE!!

from America blog comes the truth about this outlier poll"

But, the poll doesn't make sense on many levels. Here's one example: 45% of this poll's respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians (this is on page 20 of the poll's crosstabs (it's a pdf):

Further:

The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.

In 2000 and 2004, there was a very aggressive push for the evangelical vote. In 2000, when the question was asked "Do you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement," 14% of voters said "yes" in exit polls. In 2004, when the question was changed to "Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?" - the very category AP uses in its current poll - 23% of voters said yes in exit polls.

Did you get that? The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains voting in 2004 was 23%. The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains that AP included in their likely voters scenario is 44%. That's almost twice as many. Consider that 79% of evangelicals voted Republican in the 2004 presidential elections, and we can assume that anyone calling themselves "born-again" might be more prone to voter Republican. This means AP disproportionately skewed its polling towards the GOP base. So it's no surprise that the AP poll shows McCain doing better than in other polls.
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/new-flawed-ap-poll-claims-mccain-and.html

[bluestateguy]

2. Back in up with another poll that says the same thing and I'll take it seriously

When there are multiple polls showing Obama leading by outside of the MOE, or even double digits, then this poll is what we call an outlier. Until such time as it is back by another poll showing the same thing, then it's a load of crap.

This post should not even be on DU.

[fjc]

4. When it's news on TPM

It's news.

[villager]

6. it's still an AP article, regardless of where it appears, and it still contains this paragraph:

"Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points."

[Number23]

19. Exactly

it's still an AP article, regardless of where it appears

When has burying your head in the sand ever been good for anybody??

I agree that to have Obama up by one in this poll when he's up by as much as 14 in others is bizarre, but there's no reason not to post this poll on DU or to not discuss it. That's ridiculous.

[villager]

35. posting it -- though not 25 times, as has happened today -- is okay

and so is discussing, but panicking over it is something else entirely...

[regnaD kciN]

44. True...the headline is on the local paper's web page...

:shrug:

[tclambert]

45. Agree. News is news.

But I like to discuss methods of torturing statistics. I work with computers, and I'm an expert on the subject. And I can hear the tiny numerical screams from miles away on this one. In the AP poll, under the column "total respondents" the split is 47 to 37 in Obama's favor. Then under "likely voters" they change it to a 44 to 43 split. There's your problem, right there.

[TwilightGardener]

3. What an absolute lie. Ten points is not close.

[darkism]

5. What bizarro world is this? n/t

[regnaD kciN]

48. A bizarro world where 44% of likely voters are fundies...

No joke.

By comparison, the 2004 election (you know, the one with all the anti-gay-marriage initiatives that supposedly tilted the election for Bush?) had fundies make up 23% of the turnout.

Call this one "Fournier's Revenge." :eyes:

[dbonds]

7. Small sample size of 800 LIKELY voters

[Lochloosa]

8. Try this graph...

[Stuckinthebush]

10. Bingo!

I'm amazed that media even look at national horse race polls. We should have realized from 2000 that the national horse race doesn't matter - it's the electoral college that matters.

[angstlessk]

15. so, basically Obama is UP in every state and mcsame is DOWN in every state?

even the ones that are STRONG mcsame?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

21. No, that's not quite what it means

The +s in the Obama columns are his margin over McCain, same as the -s in the McCain columns. He's just showing the margins from the latest polls.

Any way you look at though, it looks great for Obama! I've always wondered why pollsters spent so much time on National polls when we don't elect our president through a national poll. State polls are all that matters.

[Newsjock]

9. fivethirtyeight.com blows a giant hole in the AP's model

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html

Note the philosophical difference between the two: in the "traditional" model, a voter can tell you that he's registered, tell you that he's certain to vote, tell you that he's very engaged by the election, tell you that he knows where his polling place is, etc., and still be excluded from the model if he hasn't voted in the past. The pollster, in other words, is making a determination as to how the voter will behave. In the "expanded" model, the pollster lets the voter speak for himself.

Frankly, I find polls showing a 4-6 point gap between likely and registered voters to be utterly ridiculous.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

11. Did you notice they did a whole article on ONE poll? They dismissed all other polls nt

[Beam Me Up]

12. To steal this election they have to make us believe it is "close".

It isn't.

[debbierlus]

16. They are going to steal or suppress as many votes as they can...

We may have a fight coming on November 5.

[last1standing]

13. Since when does the South make up 36% of total voters?

Even tossing aside the many other flaws with this poll, it is extremely unlikely that the South will make up more than one-third of all voters this election cycle.

[last_texas_dem]

54. That is definitely odd

While the south has grown in population in recent decades, I believe the southern states still tend to have the lowest turnout rate of any region. (Then again, if the increased turnout is coming out of states like VA, FL, and NC, and it's people coming out for Obama, the South representing 36% of the national vote might not be so bad...)

[Nambe]

14. This is not a poll, it is clearly a shaft.

[Juan_de_la_Dem]

17. LOL

[Roland99]

18. 34% of those polled live in the South. Umm...not sure that's representative of the US

:)

[Danieljay]

20. complete. fucking. horseshit. This kind of 'journalism' should be a crime. Liars and more liars.

Fucksticks.

[goforit]

43. Prison time for liars.....Sounds good to me!

[Danieljay]

22. AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

Source: Yahoo, AP

WASHINGTON – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_poll_presidential_race

---

They are going to try and steal this election. This has to be complete horseshit.

[liberal N proud]

23. Bullshit

Pure fucking BULLSHIT!

[bluestateguy]

24. And the dozen other polls that contradict this poll?

Oh right, they will be ignored.

I guess Matt Drudge has a new favorite pollster now, now that Zogby is not skipping to his tune anymore.

[beachmom]

25. Cherry picking polls -- high or low -- is a mistake. Averages

show this to be a race of 5 - 7 points in Obama's favor. It is not a double digit lead, nor is it a mere 1 point lead.

[last1standing]

26. I predicted earlier that this extremely flawed poll would be posted over a hundred times at DU.

Looks like I was right.

Edited to add: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3558334

[fascisthunter]

30. kicking your post

[HughMoran]

32. 3 times already

It's very popular here for some reason.

[progressivebydesign]

39. I think it's valuable to post, so that people can see that it's total bullshit.

When they went by REGISTERED voters (1,101 of them), Obama was ahead 10 points. When THEY deemed that only 800 or so were "likely voters" based on their predictions, that's when it goes down to 1 point. This is important to have out there, so that we can debunk this bullshit poll.

[last1standing]

42. My post was directed at the third thread posted on this (which were later combined).

I agree it should be posted - just not repeatedly and to the exclusion of other threads.

[progressivebydesign]

49. Yeah.. the DUers are an enthusiastic bunch!!! :) N/t

[AnneD]

27. I call.....

Bull Shit.

[bowens43]

28. nonsense.

[TheCowsCameHome]

29. Joe the plumber looks like Mensa material compared to these two dolts

What a load of crasp.

[shotten99]

31. Outlier

C'mon. When Faux gives it a 9 point spread, you know this is goofy.

[Texas Mom]

33. Look at the internals

45% of the sample are BORN AGAIN CHRISTIANS! So, looks like McCain is only getting 50% of the born agains! LOL

[WyldRogue]

34. You have got.....

.... to be shytting me??? Even steven??? :wtf:

There is no way in hell McLame and Palin gathered so much support considering the implications of voter intimidation, witness tampering, hate-mongering, flip-flopping on issues to suit his needs and flat out lying throughout his GE campaign.

If The Rethugs pull out a win for McLame, then Democracy is done for in the US since 1 party seems to win under insurmountable odds. Take away my right to vote just so they can stay in power to pillage us more. Hell, why even have an election after this if McCain wins?? The Rethugs got the election system rigged and beat so it doesn't matter who YOU vote for, the results will always favor them :grr:

[progressivebydesign]

36. Crucial INFO on that poll. I did some lengthy research on GFK Polling. Sampling is suspect.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/poll_methodology.html

They did get their sampling from another firm, but it appears that they are closely related to the firm they got the samples from. Also, read about their sampling.. where they "WEIGHT" people based upon race, age, etc. But there is never any indication of HOW they added or subtracted people from the polling.

Considering that this poll is a tiny sample, with undisclosed weights used, I'd say it's BS. AP has been a known schill for the republicans for years... remember how Nedra Pickler trashed Gore constantly?

There is a weird and entangled mess of firms around that gfk (people taken over by Roper, NOP World Health, etc.) (GFK seems to specialize in AUTOMOTIVE and consumer research, NOT political polling. Why AP suddenly used them, is beyond me.

[glinda]

37. DIDN'T AP JUST LAY OFF A BUNCH OF STAFF?

MAYBE THEY KEPT THE REPUBLICAN AND CONSERVATIVE AP STAFF AND LET THE OTHERS GO.

[progressivebydesign]

38. WTF? . Why does gfk say that Obama was ahead by 10 points, then lop it down to 1???

"The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters."

"AMONG ALL 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed OBAMA AHEAD 47% to 37% for McCAIN!!!!!!

He was up 5 points among REGISTERED voters"

SOOOO... what we have here is AP being very very very unethical and dishonest, along with their little PR firm. THEY decide who is "likely" based upon what? I mean. .it's not like someone says, "yah, I'm for Obama, but I'm not gonna vote" What they do is throw OUT the responses of people they deem "not likely to vote" based upon some statistical info from the past.

Someone needs to call AP out on this BULLSHIT.

Now, I'm mad.

[LanternWaste]

40. About as even as the '93 Superbowl

Cowboys: 52, Bills: 17

Yeah... McCain's doing so great he's spending brazillions of dollars to defend his position in red states....

[ryanmuegge]

46. LOL. I was really pulling for the Bills to win a Super Bowl back then.

That game still gives me nightmares.

[tclambert]

41. RCP has O +6.8, 538.com has O +5.1%

RealClearPolitcs.com averaged 14 different polls to arrive at their number. FiveThirtyEight.com uses a weighted analysis of up to 32 polls. The low poll is Obama +1%, the high is Obama +14%. And when I step on my bathroom scale multiple times it varies by as much as 2.5 pounds. It is strange that polls claiming a margin of error of 3 or 4 points disagree with each other by 13 points. It could be somebody's doing it wrong. Likely both outliers. If different polls are skewed in opposite directions, the biases should to some extent cancel out in the averages from RCP and 538.com.

And, as always, one should remember 50 is nice, but 270 is the number that counts.

[RainDog]

47. BULLSHIT - yesterday the WSJ reported a double-digit Obama lead.

I do not believe this. there is NOTHING that has taken place to warrant such a claim - that McCain is gaining. Yesterday the polls showed Obama had a DOUBLE DIGIT LEAD. So, that's suddenly different - than YESTERDAY???

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081021/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_poll_nbc;_ylt=AtZBcMBU2i5Ea2BJTOeDdD52wPIE

Obama has opened up a 10-point lead over Republican opponent John McCain two weeks before the November 4 U.S. election, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Tuesday.
The poll found 52 percent of voters favor Obama compared with 42 percent for McCain, up from a 6-point Obama edge two weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The 10-point lead is the largest in the Journal/NBC poll to date and represents a steady climb for Obama since early September, when the political conventions concluded with the candidates in a statistical tie, the newspaper reported.
The poll also found that the popularity of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has fallen.

Voters are less likely to see the Republican vice presidential nominee in a positive light, and much more likely to report negative feelings, the Wall Street Journal said.

Forty-seven percent view Palin negatively, compared with 38 percent who see her in a positive light.

Fifty-five percent of voters say Palin is not qualified to be president, up from 50 percent two weeks ago.

The poll of 1,159 registered voters was conducted from Friday to Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

If they try to steal this one, it will be blatantly obvious and then, yes, there will be massive protests and I'll be one of the protestors. They will not steal a third election. Look at what has happened over the course of 8 years after the last two stolen elections.

aux barricades!

[progressivebydesign]

50. Once again. Gfk has him UP 10 POINTS on all 1,101, then dropped it to 1 point on "likely"

10 Points.. it says right there in the article I read on Yahoo "The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters."

So let's recap: UP 10 points amongst all the folks they talked to. Up 5 points amongst registered. THEN they decide to exclude a few hundred people because they're not "likely" to vote (according to Gfk), and drop it down to 1%.

What is pissing me off. is that the media is going to town with this... Likely.. WHO determines LIKELY? Is it based on the OLD models with scant turn out for voters of color and young voters?

[santamargarita]

51. Fascist Pig Bullshit!

Goddamn this bunch!

[samsingh]

52. AP - fuck off you stupid liars

[RBInMaine]

53. TOTAL HORSESHIT POLL ! ALL OTHERS HAVE OBAMA WAY AHEAD !!

[HPD]

55. 40% of those polled were Evangelical Christians

Just heard it on Fox News of all places. LOL. With 40% of those polled being Evangelical Chrisitans, than this looks bad for McCain. He should up in this poll by 60% to 35% at least.

What a joke.

[antonialee839]

56. Look at the byline

It's Liz "time to make the McCain donuts" Sidoti.

[Maeve]

58. Understand this about the news agencies--they NEED a tighter race

If on Election Night the race is over by 9 or 10 pm (and that is rather likely, IMHO), everybody turns off the news and goes back to "reality" shows. They also don't want to be accused of having discouraged voters by calling it too early. So they...um...fudge the numbers, "re-balance", try to add some excitement and make McCainiacs think they still might have a chance.

In other words, bullshit for bucks.

[MaineDem]

59. I heard this on the radio last night

What is close about 8-11 points??

[Javaman]

60. isn't it cute that the ap tries so hard to remain relevant?

they are so far into the tank they are becoming a new fuel source for the rnc.