STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 16

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 16, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 96
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2823 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2548 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2839
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 15, 2008

Dow... 8,577.91 -733.08 (-7.87%)
Nasdaq... 1,628.33 -150.68 (-8.47%)
S&P 500... 907.84 -90.17 (-9.03%)
Gold future... 839.00 -0.50 (-0.06%)
30-Year Bond 4.25% -0.01 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.01% -0.01 (-0.30%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Secular Sign Posts: The View from 30,000 Feet
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

So much commentary in the financial media as well as my own missives are being centered on the short and intermediate term events and trends. Today I’d like to step back a bit and look at the market and the economy from 30,000 feet up. To start off I’d like to point readers to analysis done by Andy Lees from UBS whose comments to his clients was posted in Barry Ritholtz’s blog (click for link), with a portion of the commentary provided below.

Long Term Trends Being Tested

The trend has been going for almost 35 years, so surely that just means that the economy has continued on a similar development path for the whole of that period.

That trend, however, has been based off declining demographic dependency ratios, outsourcing, and of course the availability of cheap energy. All of these trends look as if they are set to reverse; the dependency ratio with certainty (with the 2ndry effect of pension funds selling down assets) and the cheap energy & therefore outsourcing, almost certainly.

There are of course other trends such as technological improvements and efficiency gains, as well as debt growth etc., but these are themselves totally reliant on the bigger trends mentioned above; ie they cannot happen in isolation.

The trend is your friend. Theoretically you should not bet against that trend continuing, and that is what a lot of people will say; why will it be any different this time? The point is betting that the trend will break is in fact betting that things will stay the same. The trend in equities is just a reflection of the underlying fundamentals, and given that we know that these are changing, then betting that equities will continue to go up whilst these underlying fundamentals are changing structurally, is completely illogical. It’s not only illogical, but its also expensive, as life and pension funds with liabilities the other side, will tell you.

At some stage the printing presses will be turned on sufficiently far that the equity fall just becomes a derating rather than a nominal fall, but for now my bet is that this trend is likely to start to break down.

.....

Mr. Lees is correct to point out that secular trends in both the economy and stock market have fundamental underpinnings and demographics play a major role. I pointed this out back in March in a WrapUp entitled, “Change We Can Believe In: The Slow Decline of the U.S. Consumer.” How demographics shape the secular trend was shown in the above mentioned WrapUp and is pasted below.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Core CPI Sep
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 CPI Sep
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior -0.1%

08:30 Initial Claims 10/11
Briefing.com 475K
Consensus 470K
Prior 478K

09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Aug
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

09:15 Capacity Utilization Sep
Briefing.com 78.0%
Consensus 78.0%
Prior 78.7%

09:15 Industrial Production Sep
Briefing.com -0.8%
Consensus -0.8%
Prior -1.1%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct
Briefing.com 0.0
Consensus -5.0
Prior 3.8

11:00 Crude Inventories 10/11
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

26. Initial Claims @ 461,000 - last wk rev'd up 1k - U.S. CPI up 4.9% in past year, core CPI up 2.5%

01. U.S. Sept. food prices up 0.6%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

02. U.S. Sept. CPI energy prices fall 1.9%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

03. U.S. CPI up 4.9% in past year, core CPI up 2.5%
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

04. U.S. Sept. core CPI up 0.1% vs 0.2% expected
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

05. U.S. Sept. CPI 0.0% vs 0.2% gain expected
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

06. U.S. 4-wk. avg. continuing claims rise 65,750 to 3.63 mln
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

07. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 40,000 to 3.71 mln
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

08. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims rise 750 to 483,250
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

09. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 16,000 to 461,000
8:30 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

[UpInArms]

31. U.S. Oct. Philly Fed factory index -37.5 vs. 3.8 in Sept.

01. U.S. Oct. Philly Fed factory index -37.5 vs. 3.8 in Sept.
10:05 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

[UpInArms]

37. Oct. drop in Philly factory index is largest ever

03. Oct. drop in Philly factory index is largest ever
10:08 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

[UpInArms]

41. Philly manufacturing activity deteriorates in Oct. (more info)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/philly-manufacturing-activity-deteriorates-oct/story.aspx?guid=%7B9C8BB02F%2D8FBC%2D4175%2D8950%2D18B52B92FF2C%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Conditions in the manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region deteriorated significantly in October, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed diffusion index fell to negative 37.5 in October from positive 3.8 in September. Readings below zero indicate contraction. The decline was much larger than expected. Economists were expecting the index to drop to negative 5.0. The new orders index dropped to negative 30.5 from 5.6, while the shipments index fell to negative 18.8 from 2.6. Inflationary pressures eased. The prices paid index dropped to 7.2 from 31.5.

What in the hell do these eCONomists smoke????

Have I said how much I hate their asinine thought processes because they don't have two freakin' brain cells in their heads?

[54anickel]

65. You'd almost think they are unclear on the notion that negative actually means below zero. WTF? n/t

[UpInArms]

33. Holy Shit! U.S. Q3 industrial production down 6.0% - production drop largest since Dec. '74

25. U.S. Q3 industrial production down 6.0%
9:15 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

26. U.S. Sept. capacity utilization lowest since Oct. 2003
9:15 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

27. U.S. Sept. capacity utilization falls to 76.4% vs 78.7 Aug.
9:15 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

28. U.S. Sept. industrial output ex-hurricanes down about 0.5%
9:15 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

29. U.S. Sept. industrial production drop largest since Dec. '74
9:15 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

30. U.S. Sept. industrial production down 2.8% vs down 1.5% est.
9:15 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

[Dr.Phool]

38. Just think how bad it will be if we slip into a recession.

:sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

39. U.S. industrial output posts biggest fall in 34 years

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49F56B20081016

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. industrial production fell a sharp 2.8 percent in September, the biggest decline since December 1974, according to a report on Thursday that was likely to reinforce fears of a recession.

Economists had expected a decline of 0.8 percent, after a revised 1 percent decline in August, initially reported as a 1.1 percent fall.

The Federal Reserve said in the report the September drop was exacerbated by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, as well as a strike at aircraft maker Boeing. Business equipment production was off 7 percent, while consumer goods were down 1.4 percent.

For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production decreased at an annual rate of 6 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. U.S. net capital outflows slowed to $400 mln in August

39. U.S. net capital outflows slowed to $400 mln in August
9:00 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEQ00030420081016

Holdings of major foreign holders of Treasuries:

Japan                   585.9     593.4    583.8
China                   541.0     518.7    503.8
United Kingdom          307.4     291.5    280.4
Oil exporters           179.8     173.9    170.4
Caribbean banking ctrs  147.7     133.7    122.4
Brazil                  146.2     148.4    151.6

which doesn't answer the report question:

Net Foreign Purchases Aug

we are bleeding $3.24 billion a day - we have to have net foreign purchases of $97.5 billion a month - so what is with this "slowed to $400 million" shit?

[UpInArms]

50. Petroleum Inventories Report:

04. U.S. crude supply up 5.6 mln brls last week: Energy Dept.
11:01 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

05. U.S. distillate supply down 500,000 brls: Energy Dept.
11:01 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

06. U.S. gasoline supply up 7 mln brls: Energy Dept.
11:01 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls to 14-month low on bad US economic data

SINGAPORE - Oil prices fell to a 14-month low Thursday in Asia as bad U.S. economic news stoked fears that a significant global economic slowdown will undermine demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery was down $2.90 to $71.64 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell overnight $4.09 to settle at $74.54, the lowest settlement price since Aug. 31, 2007.

....

OPEC said in a report Wednesday that oil consumption dropped in developed countries by more than 1 million barrels a day in September compared to the same period a year earlier. Demand growth from developing countries increased by a daily 1.2 million barrels over the same time, OPEC said.

....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 5.85 cents to $2.13 a gallon, while gasoline prices decreased 6.17 cents to $1.72 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery dropped 11.3 cents to $6.48 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

25. November crude down 89 cents to $73.62 a barrel on Globex

03. November crude down 89 cents to $73.62 a barrel on Globex
8:26 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

[Tansy_Gold]

27. Demand growth comment

With reference to my semi-joking question the other day about why crude oil spiked to $140+ this summer and is back down to $70-80 --

I think we all know that at least part of that spike was due to speculation, even though some of TPTB said it wasn't.

And I think it was you, Ozy, who replied that worldwide demand is down about 8%, which accounts for part of the current drop in price. And while I recognize that OPEC doesn't necessarily speak for all petroleum producers, it does appear from this report that if 1st & 2nd world economies have cut back on consumption, 3rd thru 5th world economies have picked up the slack.

so whether it was institutional "investing" in commodities that drove the price of crude up or just pure speculation, it still wasn't really "the market." And that was the point I was trying to make. Even outside the now carelessly controlled collapse of the FIRE system, there is still massive manipulation of the economy by SUPTB (some unknown powers that be). Who these shruggers are is anyone's guess.

But also, as I pointed out in another thread last week, I don't think these SUPTB are the usual suspects -- Rove, cheeeeeney, or any of the other "visible" players. Like Buffet and Soros and others, I think there are faceless powers (and they may not all be Americans) who are playing a new version of The Great Game.

We'll see, we'll see.


Tansy Gold

[UpInArms]

47. Crude futures drop below $70 per barrel - @ $69.15 bbl

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/crude-futures-drop-below-70/story.aspx?guid=%7BA02F69DE%2D5C1D%2D4E0F%2D81B0%2DB5CC7C51B477%7D&dist=hplatest

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil futures dropped below $70 per barrel Thursday for the first time in 14 months as fears that a global economic recession will slash demand for oil combined with three week's worth of rising U.S. crude and gasoline supplies to set prices up for third-straight session of declines. November crude fell to a low of $69.15 and was last down $4.58 at $69.96 on Globex.

[ozymandius]

4. World stocks tumble as Tokyo markets plunge 11 pct

HONG KONG - World stocks tumbled Thursday, with Tokyo's market plunging more than 11 percent, after another dive on Wall Street as worse-than-expected data about the U.S. economy heightened fears of a global recession.

....

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock average slid 1,089.02 points, or 11.41 percent, to 8,458.45, its biggest drop since the 1987 stock market crash.

In South Korea, the main index dropped 9.25 percent after Standard & Poor's said it may downgrade the credit ratings of some of the country's leading banks. The ratings agency warned the credit crisis could make it difficult for the companies to refinance maturing debt.

Hong Kong's key index trimmed losses, closing down 4.8 percent after falling more than 8 percent earlier.

Benchmarks in Britain, Germany and France opened about 3 percent lower. Russia's RTS also fell back.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081016/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

5. Switzerland pumps billions into bank rescue plan

BERN, Switzerland - The Swiss government says it will help banking giant UBS raise billions of dollars in new capital.

...

UBS has suffered losses and writedowns totaling about 45 billion francs (US$40 billion) over the past year.

The government will also sign mandatory convertible bonds worth 6 billion (US$5.25 billion) with UBS and raise account holder protection with all banks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081016/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_switzerland_banks

---

Do I smell some Gramm Ham cooking?

[ozymandius]

6. Bernanke Foreshadows End to Fed's Hands-Off Approach to Bubbles

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled an end to the Fed's decades-old aversion to interfering with asset-price bubbles as the financial crisis reshapes some of the central bank's most firmly held views on regulation and monetary policy.

.....

For two decades, the ruling philosophy was that of former chairman Alan Greenspan. ``It is far from obvious that bubbles, even if identified early, can be pre-empted at a lower cost than a substantial economic contraction and possible financial destabilization,'' Greenspan told the American Economic Association in 2004.

Rethinking Approach

His successor, Bernanke, and his team now find themselves reconsidering their approach to everything from regulation to state ownership. The collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has led to more than $600 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007, pushing Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy, forcing Merrill Lynch & Co. to merge with Bank of America Corp. and turning Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. into bank holding companies. The first investment bank to fall this year was Bear Stearns Cos., which the Fed forced into the arms of JPMorgan Chase & Co.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=apSQDdFroxBs&refer=home

[Joe Chi Minh]

20. "....at a lower cost than a substantial economic contraction and possible

financial destabilization."

- from the salad days of greenest of greenhorns, Alan Greenspan.

Oh, I love that! "...and possible financial destabilisation"!

[ozymandius]

7. AIG Bonuses, Retreats Violate State Law, Cuomo Says (Update5)

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is investigating ``unwarranted and outrageous expenditures'' at American International Group Inc., which received an $85 billion federal bailout last month.

In a letter to AIG's board of directors, Cuomo demanded the company stop ``extravagant'' expenditures and recover millions of dollars in unreasonable payments, or face legal action.

Cuomo cited a $5 million bonus and a $15 million ``golden parachute'' AIG awarded its chief executive officer in March. Martin Sullivan was AIG's CEO at the time. Cuomo said the company also spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ``luxurious retreats'' for executives, including an overseas hunting party and a golf outing.

.....

Cuomo claimed in his letter that the expenditures violated the state's debtor-creditor law and demanded an accounting of AIG's executive compensation and benefits since January 2007. He said the government's financial rescue of AIG made the expenditures ``even more irresponsible and damaging.''

The U.S. government offered AIG an $85 billion loan last month as the company slipped toward insolvency. The company may access an additional $37.8 billion from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to replenish liquidity.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aReJ5S5UVlmE&refer=us

[Festivito]

8. Debt: 10/14/2008 10,294,404,889,401.40 (UP 23,457,095.30) (up little, 0.08%avg)

(This report is now automated except for this text. Each week there seems one day with low or even negative increase in debt. Tomorrow should be interesting again.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,024,523,653,568.44 + 4,269,881,235,833.03
DOWN 423,759,602.80 + UP 447,216,698.16

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reported increases in debt is 29,099,320,821.72.
The average for the last 30 days would be 20,369,524,575.20.
The average for the last 32 days would be 19,096,429,289.25.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 9 reports in 14 days of FY2009 averaging 29.96B$ per report, 19.26B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 98 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.4 and 12.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
10/14/2008 10,294,404,889,401.40 GWB (UP 4,566,209,093,219.83 so far since Bush took office)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 269,679,992,489.00 so far.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3544932&mesg_id=3545237

PRIOR DAYS LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3543379&mesg_id=3545227

[DemReadingDU]

61. 19.26B$/day

:wow:


I'm wondering when they will add the $250 billion for the bank bailout, or maybe they are averaging a smaller amount day-by-day?

[ozymandius]

9. S&P 500 Futures Advance After Index's Biggest Drop Since '87

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures climbed, indicating the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will advance after its biggest plunge since the 1987 crash, as oil's drop to a 13- month low lifted consumer companies.

General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the largest U.S. automakers, climbed more than 1 percent in Europe as crude extended its retreat from a July record to 51 percent. S&P 500 futures earlier fell as much as 2.5 percent after EBay Inc. forecast its first quarterly drop in sales.

S&P 500futures expiring in December added 13.8 points, or 1.5 percent, to 917.10 at 10:17 a.m. in London. The S&P 500 lost 90.17 points, or 9 percent yesterday, with almost half the losses coming in the last 50 minutes of trading.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&refer=us&sid=aOo0.x1IQQ1E

[ozymandius]

10. Oh Dear - that story is already dated. Here's the latest:

S&P 500 -3.70 899.60 10/16 5:46am

NASDAQ -11.75 1217.25 10/16 5:45am

Dow Jones -54.00 8450.00 10/16 5:44am

[spotbird]

17. Thanks for all you do here

In these troubling times a place where information is quick, intelligently analyzed, as well as accurate, is in valuable.

[Dr.Phool]

23. The cat is on it's second bounce.

It was pretty good drop after all. But, looking at Asia and Europe, the cat will probably settle with a quiet thud.

Then start decomposing.

[Ghost Dog]

63. I can report from here in the city of Barcelona,

barrio of Gràcia, that most people here can see quite clearly what's coming, are as ready and prepared and unsurpirised as they could be, and are, in general, quite tranquil, calm, steady.

And expecting yet another turn of the great wheel of historical proportions... The rest of "Old Europe", most probably, too. :hi: from the road.

[ozymandius]

75. Hey Ghost Dog! Thanks for stopping by for awhile.

Your absence has been noticed. Please tell how this implosion is playing in the Spanish press and among those "on the street". Thanks!

[ozymandius]

11. US hedge fund withdrawals hit $43bn in September

Investors pulled at least $43bn from US hedge funds in September as market turmoil led to unprecedented withdrawals, an analysis by a leading research house shows.

The data from TrimTabs Investment Research – which was to be sent to clients late on Wednesday – come as hedge funds are working to prevent far bigger redemptions by the end of the year, when many funds give investors a chance to take out money.

Withdrawals can lead to a vicious circle in the markets, as funds sell holdings to return money to clients, depressing prices and prompting further redemptions.

To prevent such an outcome, some hedge funds had offered to suspend fees if investors kept their money in until March, said Marc Freed, of Lyster Watson, which invests in hedge funds on behalf of institutional and private clients.

....

The chief executive of a leading alternative investment manager said he expected the hedge fund industry to shrink by 50 per cent in coming months – with half the decline coming from withdrawals and half coming from investment losses.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bd6c2ec0-9b0d-11dd-a653-000077b07658.html

[ozymandius]

12. Airlines struggle despite fuel price drop

ATLANTA — A steep drop in fuel prices has not given airlines much reason to celebrate because of a worsening economy that threatens to curb demand for flights heading into next year.

Executives said Wednesday as Delta Air Lines reported a third-quarter loss and American Airlines' parent posted a small profit that travelers have not seen the last of capacity cuts and fees for services that were once free.

Atlanta-based Delta will scale back international growth plans in the coming months and is prepared to cut more domestic capacity if needed to weather the global financial crisis that has intensified in recent weeks, executives said. American, a unit of Fort Worth-based AMR Corp., will cut capacity again next year by 6 percent, Chief Executive Gerard Arpey said. The move could help push fares higher if other airlines go along.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/6061037.html

[Roland99]

13. Y'all have fun....

I'll be watching the ride on TV and might pop in from time to time but I'm down for the count with a head cold (and a day before my bday...yay me)


But I can rest with a smile on my face after having seen this thread!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7473451&mesg_id=7473451

[ozymandius]

14. Sorry to hear that Roland.

Here's my wish for a speedy recovery. And what a photo!

[spotbird]

18. Happy Birthday!

You might heal more quickly if you watch reruns of the Twilight Zone rather than the Great Unraveling. Or are they the same thing?


Fortunately for me, I'm on the ground floor so jumping from the window wouldn't do much good - but I'm considering it anyway.

[ozymandius]

15. Have a wonderful day everyone.

I'll be back way later.

In case you have some spare chunks of time - I'd recommend watching these two videos. There's Bill Moyers speaking with Kevin Phillips. Then there's this Charlie Rose interview with Nouriel Roubini.

I've spent a little time this morning watching the Roubini interview. It's almost an hour long and he goes into some detail about his 12-point crisis outline.

:hi:

[AnneD]

44. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. :party: It's never to early to celebrate a birthday Roland. Put some money on a pony-better returns than WS.

And speaking of WS-no crystal ball needed to guess what kind of day we will have today. The only question is how much grease will we need to lube the tube. I keep hearing rumours of another Breton Woods type gathering and a New World Economic Order. If you are a technical trader-you should do well. If you are a buy and hold you should do well finding good bargains and if you can your own food-you will do well too. For my money-we will continue to give up ground-like in the Great Depression.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[BelgianMadCow]

16. 1 PM news just now: 2000 Billion Euro for banking AND industry

the industry part still being undefined.

But the lower gas prices will be given to the consumer only for 50%, the rest will be extra tax to balance the budget.

Say WHAT? They are looking for pitchforks.

[Dr.Phool]

19. That gives me an idea. Sick mind and all.

Invest in pitchfork futures. Better yet, start up a pitchfork stand.

Yeah, that's the ticket.

[alterfurz]

21. tar & feathers, too!

and maybe tumbrels.

[BelgianMadCow]

22. Futures hmmm..PDS, pitchfork default stabs is the hot thing

I hear.

[AnneD]

45. Tar and Feather Franchise over here...

Get 'em while they're hot.

[Dr.Phool]

52. I saw a guy get tarred and feathered on HBO's "John Adams".

Didn't look like much fun.

How much for the franchise?

[SidneyCarton]

53. It only gets worse.

Once the tar cools, removing it usually peels off skin and flesh too. Nasty stuff.

[AnneD]

58. Actually that can be nasty punishment...

It the tar is very hot and over most of your body, you can die of suffocation, burns, or poison from the chemicals leeching in from the skin.

For you-I make a special deal.

Actually some of the worst ways to kill someone were dreamed up by the Apache-in fact the full moon this month is called the Apache Moon by old timers. It was the time when Apache were on the move-going to their winter grounds. They raider ranches using the moon light. Some farmers would take their livestock and go on vacation to a neighbors farm if they were on the path. It is also called the hunters moon by anyone that never had an unpleasant encounter with an Apache.

Those were the scary bedtime stories my grandpa told me. Like the Chupacabra but real.

[UpInArms]

24. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.142 Change -0.307 (-0.39%)

US Dollar Ignores Dismal Retail Sales, Rallies Amidst Flight-to-Safety

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Ignores_Dismal_Retail_1224112843617.html

Despite all of the issues facing the US economy, we’ve seen that the US dollar continues to gain on safe haven flows, similar to what we see with gold and US Treasuries. While the Federal Reserve has stepped up their liquidity injection efforts by offering unlimited amounts of dollar funding in conjunction with the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Japan, there is still a huge amount of demand. As a result, it may be worth questioning what sort of benefit these liquidity efforts serve when banks are simply hoarding cash anyway as they avoid lending in fear of unknown counterparty risk. Indeed, volatility is still remarkably high, and while the CBOE’s VIX Index is down from Friday’s record high of 76.94 near 69, its levels suggest that market sentiment remains firmly risk averse.

This helps to explain why the greenback is holding strong despite dismal US data. Indeed, Advance Retail Sales fell sharply during the month of September at a rate of 1.2 percent, marking the worst result since August 2005 and the third consecutive negative reading. A 3.8 percent slump in auto sales contributed the most to the decline amidst a combination of high gas prices and waning demand for durable, expensive goods. Overall, though, the decline is indicative of a trend that will prove to be detrimental for broad economic growth. Furthermore, with most of the other G10 nations experiencing a major economic slowdown as well, US exports - the lynchpin of expansion in Q2 - are likely to weigh heavily on US growth through the end of the year. That said, US fundamentals have not been remotely market-moving for the US dollar, and this will likely remain the case until risk aversion stops being the dominant driver of price action throughout the financial markets. Check out our outlook for Thursday’s release of the US Consumer Price Index.

...more...

Can The Dollar Hold Up Against Speculation Of Another 50bp Fed Cut?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Can_The_Dollar_Hold_Up_1224087558418.html

Just a week after the Federal Reserve took part in a coordinated rate cut by lowering its benchmark lending rate 50 basis points to 1.50 percent, the markets are still forecasting another aggressive cut for the policy board’s next meeting on October 29th.



A Closer Look At Financial And Consumer Conditions



Though the markets have found relief in US and European bailouts – it seems that the break is from sheer panic and not from an overall bearish bias on investment trends. There is still a clear demand for low risk returns as is evidenced by the consistent drop in three-month T-bill yields. At the same time, Libor rates with the same maturity however have steadily risen nearly two percent over the past few weeks. This divergence reflects an improvement in lending conditions (with government guarantees) but with expectations for investment to be stunted by new regulations, lingering caution and expected recession.



As we have been saying for a while, the strong 2Q GDP reading was offering a false sense of security in the health of the US. In the fall out of the financial crisis, there are few doubts that the world’s largest economy is heading for a crippling recession. Data has already set the stage for negative growth through the third quarter, and the outlook has certainly dimmed from there. Consumers will be the pivotal player for whether the oncoming downturn will be mild or severe. With unemployment at a five-year high and retail sales hitting a three-year low, the outlook certainly doesn’t look promising.

...more...

[Roland99]

28. And they're off! Futures were +150 but Dow slipped negative at the start

I better go grab a barf bag in case it gets too rollercoaster-y.

[antigop]

29. NY Times editorial: Mr. Paulson's client

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/opinion/14tue1.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

But we are disturbed that Mr. Paulson wants the government to be a passive investor with little say on how these banks are run, despite the billions of dollars at risk.

That means the banks’ current boards and current management — the same people who got the country into this mess — will still be making all of the decisions.

We are not arguing that the government must take direct control of the banks it invests in. But in the case of extreme mismanagement, insisting on the replacement of some of the negligent executives, managers or board members may be the prudent thing to do.

[antigop]

30. AIG reportedly trying to chip away at new curbs on mortgage industry

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/REG/810169995/1036

State regulators said AIG is working to ease some provisions in a new federal law, passed in July as part of a sweeping housing-industry rescue package, which establishes strict oversight of mortgage originators, the paper said.

The law requires originators to be licensed by states and to supply comprehensive information so that state regulators can track their activities, the paper reported.

The new rules aim at holding originators accountable if they engage in improper or fraudulent lending of the kind that ultimately contributed to AIG’s downfall.

Calls to AIG seeking comment were not immediately returned.

[UpInArms]

32. Paulson Piehole Flap Alert:

05. Paulson: Rescue plan gets at 'heart of the problem'
9:54 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

06. Paulson: Plan to buy toxic assets will increase transparency
9:51 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

08. Paulson: Bank capital plan designed to boost confidence
9:49 AM ET, Oct 16, 2008

[Patriought]

35. We're going UP; We're going DOWn

You know what's really frightening about all this? I was recently reading a book about the Great Depression, and back then, as now, the stock market varied wildly from highs to lows, just like it's doing now...And it kept doing that until it crashed like 747 in a nosedive.

[UpInArms]

36. 10:13 EST reality bites

Dow 8,439.96 137.95 (1.61%)
Nasdaq 1,614.91 13.42 (0.82%)
S&P 500 900.56 7.28 (0.80%)
10-Yr Bond 3.99% 0.021

NYSE Volume 7,532,882,500
Nasdaq Volume 473,183,843.75

the rate cut boogey was short lived

:eyes:

[Coventina]

40. Asia Stocks Drop Dramatically in Early Trading

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/16/business/worldbusiness/16asiastox.html?ref=worldbusiness

HONG KONG —Asian stock markets appeared to be headed for another rough session on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping dramatically in early trading.

The key Japanese index was down 9.6 percent, or 920 points, at 8,624 by mid-morning, echoing similar blood-letting last week, and erasing an extraordinary 14 percent rebound Tuesday on the back of the global efforts to stabilize the teetering financial system.

The picture on Thursday was little better in South Korea, where the Kospi dropped 7 percent. Stocks in Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore were each down more than 6 percent, and Taiwan was 3.2 percent lower.

The mass sell-off followed the biggest one-day percentage fall on Wall Street since 1987. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 7.9 percent on Wednesday, or 733.08 points, to 8,577.91 points, while the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index dropped 9 percent. Investors on Wall Street — frightened by the prospect of falling company earnings as U.S. retail statistics provided the latest evidence of economic slowdown — dumped shares..

***********************************************************

Hi guys! Don't know if you remember me or not. I used to do I Ching readings on this thread for awhile. I eventually discovered that they really didn't add value, so I stopped. I probably haven't posted on this thread for two years or more.

But anyway, I've now become even more interested in Asia, so I was thinking that I might rejoin you guys by posting Asia-related business items every so often. Let me know if you think that might be interesting and/or helpful.

Thanks!

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

42. Welcome back.

Nikkei ended up down almost 11 1/2%. Wang Chung almost 5%.

[Roland99]

43. 11:11am - Time to make a wish

Dow 8,235.43 -342.48
Nasdaq 1,568.52 -59.81
S&P 50 0867.55 -40.29
10-year 3.93% -0.08
Oil $72.65 -$1.89
Gold $802.00 -$37.00

Markets feel like I do...down in the dumps!

And actually, I'm seeing on CNBC that oil has hit $69.50/bbl.

[DemReadingDU]

46. GMAC Has Limited Funding, May Scale Back Outside U.S.

GMAC Has Limited Funding, May Scale Back Outside U.S. (Update1)

By David Mildenberg and Greg Bensinger

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the financing arm of General Motors Corp., has ``limited if any access to funding'' for its mortgage and auto-lending units, Chief Executive Officer Al de Molina said in an e-mail to employees.

GMAC may trim auto lending in some international markets, de Molina said in the e-mail yesterday. The Detroit-based company is considering ``strategic initiatives'' for insurance businesses, he said.

``We've pursued a `self-help' approach that on some days is akin to hand-to-hand combat,'' de Molina said in the e-mail. He said the lender's Residential Capital LLC unit is ``perhaps the most challenged operation.'' GMAC doesn't comment on employee communications, spokeswoman Gina Proia said.

GMAC is restricting auto lending to buyers with credit scores of at least 700, who represent about 58 percent of U.S. consumers. The move this week added to the global credit squeeze that threatens to choke economic growth as companies and consumers find it harder and more expensive to borrow. Plummeting auto sales and record foreclosures have resulted in $5.4 billion in losses at GMAC over the past year and led credit agencies to reduce the debt to junk.

``It's very difficult for a finance unit to exist very long at less than investment grade,'' said Thomas Atteberry, who helps manage $3.5 billion in fixed-income assets at First Pacific Advisors in Los Angeles. ``The cost of capital is just a killer.''

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a2UCo5JjtR.E&refer=us

[Dr.Phool]

48. I'm rich bitch!!!!

Since my Railroad Retirement is based on SS, I'M RICH BITCH!!!!
Apologies to Dave Chapelle.


Social Security benefits going up by 5.8 percent
Change in cost of living adjustment is sharp departure from recent years

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27214548/

updated 25 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Social Security benefits for 50 million people will be going up 5.8 percent next year, the largest increase in more than a quarter century.

The increase, which will start in January, was announced Thursday by the Social Security Administration. It will mean an additional $63 per month for the average retiree.

The increase is the largest since a 7.4 percent jump in 1982 and is more than double the 2.3 percent rise that retirees got in their monthly checks starting in January of this year.
Story continues below ↓

[UpInArms]

49. 11:25 EST - dear god(dess) look at those volume number!

Dow 8,334.11 243.80 (2.84%)
Nasdaq 1,591.55 36.78 (2.26%)
S&P 500 879.77 28.07 (3.09%)
10-Yr Bond 3.932% 0.079

NYSE Volume 8,431,699,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,073,797,250

8 billion shares before noon!

:faint:

[Dr.Phool]

51. Somebody is looking for some bargain hunters.

[DemReadingDU]

55. What's the average daily? n/t

[UpInArms]

64. a year ago, it was around 2,500,000,000 - then in the past

four months, it spiked to around 4,000,000,000 - now it's way above that

:hi:

[dweller]

54. this ought to help, right?

Mortgage rates spike - biggest jump since '87
Rate on 30-year fixed mortgages jump could climb higher still. One cause: Government's rescue efforts.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: October 16, 2008: 10:24 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Low mortgage rates, the one bright spot in a devastated housing market, are on a rapid rise.

Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hit 6.46% - up from 5.94% the week earlier. That represented the largest weekly increase since April 1987, when the 30-year rose 0.84 points.

Bankrate.com also charted the spike. The investment Web site reported that the average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.74% on Wednesday from 6.2% the Wednesday before.

Translation: A borrower with a $200,000 mortgage would pay about $1,225 a month at 6.2%, and $70 more, $1,295 at 6.74%.

Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research who participates in Bankrate.com's weekly mortgage rate surveys, expects to see rates top 7% in the next six months, and then turn back down.

need i add this?
:sarcasm:
dp

[DemReadingDU]

56. When I got my first house, in 1971, the rate was 7.5%

and had to have 20% for downpayment to avoid PMI
house though was $21,900
:)


bought different house in 1987
rate was 9%
again, put down 20% to avoid PMI
house was $134,000
refinanced after 5 years to 7.5% rate


It's just been in the past few years when mortgage rates became so cheap

[bain_sidhe]

60. 9.0% in 1989 on a three year land contract

with the rate scheduled to go up 1/2 a point a year until we got a "real" mortgage. And that 9.0 was sort of a "gift" from the seller - going rate was higher than that. He just liked us and wanted us to have it. Hence the land contract (I had a job, but it didn't pay enough to qualify, and my husband didn't have enough "time on job" to qualify either, he'd just been hired as as full time faculty. (He'd been working as part-time for years, while he got his Masters and I supported us.)

But I think that time had unusually high rates - we refinanced 2 years later at somewhere around 8%, and refinanced again a couple of years after that at 6.5%. But they were both 15 year mortgages with 20% down (paid it off last summer, YAAAY!), so that might not have been representative of the rates back then.

[dweller]

62. wait, there's more!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081016/builder_sentiment.html

Homebuilder sentiment index hits record low
Thursday October 16, 1:01 pm ET
By Alex Veiga, AP Business Writer
Homebuilder sentiment index hit record low in October amid concerns over financial crisis

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The National Association of Home Builders says its housing market index hit a record low this month as the U.S. financial crisis shook builders' confidence in the prospect for improved sales of new homes.

The Washington-based trade association said Thursday the index tumbled by three points to 14 in October. The index stood at 17 last month, a one-point increase from August.

Index readings higher than 50 indicate positive sentiment about the market.

The report reflects a survey of 446 of residential developers nationwide, tracking builders' perceptions of market conditions.

Builders' gauge of foot traffic by prospective buyers fell two points to 12, while sales expectations over the next six months plunged nine points to 19.

dp

[bemildred]

57. VIX is 78+.

Up 13%.
Yikes.

[TrogL]

59. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-09-04 Thursday, September 4 0.93985 USD
2008-09-05 Friday, September 5 0.940115 USD
2008-09-08 Monday, September 8 0.935104 USD
2008-09-09 Tuesday, September 9 0.936593 USD
2008-09-10 Wednesday, September 10 0.931532 USD
2008-09-11 Thursday, September 11 0.926183 USD
2008-09-12 Friday, September 12 0.942863 USD
2008-09-15 Monday, September 15 0.937207 USD
2008-09-16 Tuesday, September 16 0.931359 USD
2008-09-17 Wednesday, September 17 0.926956 USD
2008-09-18 Thursday, September 18 0.934929 USD
2008-09-19 Friday, September 19 0.955201 USD
2008-09-22 Monday, September 22 0.963113 USD
2008-09-23 Tuesday, September 23 0.965717 USD
2008-09-24 Wednesday, September 24 0.96609 USD
2008-09-25 Thursday, September 25 0.967305 USD
2008-09-26 Friday, September 26 0.965997 USD
2008-09-29 Monday, September 29 0.962186 USD
2008-09-30 Tuesday, September 30 0.943663 USD
2008-10-01 Wednesday, October 1 0.942774 USD
2008-10-02 Thursday, October 2 0.928591 USD
2008-10-03 Friday, October 3 0.924642 USD
2008-10-06 Monday, October 6 0.906865 USD
2008-10-07 Tuesday, October 7 0.904568 USD
2008-10-08 Wednesday, October 8 0.889205 USD
2008-10-09 Thursday, October 9 0.870853 USD
2008-10-10 Friday, October 10 0.840336 USD
2008-10-13 Monday, October 13 0.840336 USD
2008-10-14 Tuesday, October 14 0.862143 USD
2008-10-15 Wednesday, October 15 0.84717 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8423 0.8430 0.8415 0.8415 -0.0008 -0.09% 11:01 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8442 0.8442 0.8360 0.8380 -0.0060 -0.71% 11:40 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8375 0.8375 0.8375 0.8459 -0.0185 -2.19% set 15:04 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.8468 -0.0185 -2.18% set 15:04 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.8469 -0.0185 -2.18% set 15:04 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.9845 0.9845 0.9845 0.8470 -0.0185 -2.18% set 15:04 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8471 -0.0185 -2.18% set 15:04 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.7951 0.7951 0.7951 0.7951 -0.0094 -1.18%   
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.7212 1.7252 1.7152 1.7192 -0.0099 -0.57%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.78090 0.78090 0.77850 0.77850 -0.00315 -0.40%     
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
RY.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 135.13 136.42 132.84 134.00 -1.39 -1.04% %     

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might have been posted with last Friday's low. However, it will take closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.28 to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, weekly support crossing at 80.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 82.64. Second support is weekly support crossing at 80.39.

Analysis

The price of oil's still dropping, but now the loonie isn't. As usual these days, I'm hopelessly confused. :crazy:

[54anickel]

66. So I've been having these feelings of deja vu for the past month or so, been to busy

to do any digging until today. Anyone else remember the Single-Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit? A couple of articles from last fall:

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2007/10/nobel-prize-and-super-conduit.html

snip>

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports:

Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan are on Monday expected to announce plans for a fund to buy mortgage-linked securities in an attempt to allay fears of a downward price-spiral that would hit the balance sheets of big banks.

A person familiar with the discussions said that US banks collectively were expected to put up credit guarantees worth about $75bn for the fund, named the Single-Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit (SMLEC).
...
The concept of an SMLEC first emerged three weeks ago when the US Treasury summoned leading bankers to discuss ways of reviving the mortgage-linked securities market and dealing with the threat posed by structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and conduits.

The Treasury acted as a neutral “third party” in the discussions, and Hank Paulson,Treasury secretary, was strongly in support of the initiative.
Maybe if the work of Hurwicz, Maskin and Myerson had been available a few years back, if the Federal Reserve gave a hoot about asset bubbles, and if regulators weren't asleep at the wheel, this whole credit, housing, and mortgage market mess could have been avoided.

more...




http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/12/business/12siv.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

Some Wonder if the Banks’ Stabilization Fund Will Work

When the country’s three largest banks reached agreement on Friday on how to structure a $75 billion fund to prop up distressed securities, an exhausted group of its top planners gathered in a Bank of America conference room to toast their success with 12-packs of Bud Light.

But the celebration might have come too soon.

Having settled on the fund’s composition, officials from Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase will now have to raise more than $60 billion of the fund from dozens of financial institutions around the globe in the next few weeks. The goal is to have the fund operating by the end of the year. But the big question is: Will it actually help?

The answer, some analysts and big investors say, is probably not much. The backup fund will not save troubled structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, that hold billions of dollars in packaged loans, though it could delay their demise. It may help calm the turbulent credit markets by preventing a sharp sell-off of securities, though analysts say the fund will probably not be able to offset the deteriorating prices of the securities.

Banks, meanwhile, may benefit if the backup fund can reignite trading in the packaged loan market and keep SIV assets from bogging down their own balance sheets.

“It is quickly being realized that it doesn’t really solve the problems,” said Joshua Rosner, a managing director at the research firm Graham Fisher & Company who had been skeptical of the proposal. “The path they have taken of skimming off the cream from the top doesn’t resolve the fact there is poison at the bottom.”

much more...

[antigop]

77. Krugman had a blog entry recently about it...

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/son-of-mlec/

[54anickel]

78. Thanks! I just no longer have the time to keep up on things like I used to around here. n/t

[Robbien]

67. TVGuide sold for a dollar. Not price per stock , nor per a magazine. The entire company for a buck

According to Advertising Age, Macrovision Solutions Corporation (NASDAQ: MSVN) has sold the iconic TV Guide to the private equity firm OpenGate Capital. For $1. One freaking dollar! And, even worse, Macrovision is loaning OpenGate $9.5 million at 3% interest to cover the cost of reinvigorating the brand and fulfilling the obligation to serve its current subscribers.

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/

[PassingFair]

68. I knew they were toast when my 83 year old aunt cancelled her subscription.

I think she was their final subscriber....

[ozymandius]

74. OMG! I remember when Triangle Industries bought TV Guide

at around $8/share in the early eighties about the time of telecom deregulation. How the mighty have fallen!

[TheWatcher]

69. Yes, Another late day, Synthetic Bullshit Rally during the "Magic Hour"

Still searching for clues as to why.

The reasons fed to the Herd for today's action are of course the "Soothing, Reassuring" Unemployment numbers that came in better than expected (THANK GOD there were only 461,000 Claims VS. 475,000 expected. Whew! We REALLY Dodged a Bullet there. Jobs for everyone!), and the Fake CPI numbers. (FLAT! :rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:)

The "Magical Rumor" for today is that there was a lot of partying by funds wanting to get in ahead of the GOOG earnings, which if they supposedly sparkle could start another "Save The World Rally".

I suppose GOOG has become the Poster Child for saving the economy with it's earnings reports.

*Sigh* I miss the old days when it was IBM that was used for this nonsense.

However, it appears that the attempt to jam the Index to a "Psychological Close" above 9000 met with failure.

I wonder what this Neverland Circus of Stupidity will bring us tomorrow.

Friday Psycho Party or Friday Dump?

Only Stammerin' Hank probably knows for sure.

[Imperialism Inc.]

70. One thing I have heard is that there is a lot of computer trading

at the end of the day. Programs that are set to watch all day and buy or sell based on price levels at the end of the day. Not sure if that is true but there has been a lot of last minute huge up swings and down swings lately.

[TheWatcher]

71. Computer Trading has a lot to do with it, that is true.

During the fake run up from the 2003 Bottom, numbers I have heard is that on any given day Program Trading has been responsible for up to 67% of the trades during the day.

This Market has been nothing more than a Casino for awhile now.

[TheWatcher]

72. GOOG Beats by 16c, IBM inline with Preannouncment

Well, they got their numbers they were looking for, now let's see if tomorrow is Friday Psycho Circus Fun Day, or Friday Pump And Dump day.

THANK GOD the entire economy hangs on GOOG. Or was that the price of Oil? Or was it the Fake CPI Numbers? Or was it housing? Or was Nationalization of everything? Or was it Bailout Rumors?

Ah, how can one even keep up? :)

[ozymandius]

73. closing numbers with candy, roses, ponies and a swing

Dow 8,979.26 Up 401.35 (4.68%)
Nasdaq 1,717.71 Up 89.38 (5.49%)
S&P 500 946.43 Up 38.59 (4.25%)
10-Yr Bond 3.936% Down 0.075
NYSE Volume 8,103,451,500
Nasdaq Volume 3,419,793,500

4:35 pm : Stocks swung widely with record volatility Thursday. The Dow was down almost 380 points at its session low, but was able to complete a near 800 point swing to close 400 points higher with a 4.7% gain. It finished at its high.

The Volatility Index hit an all-time high of 81 during the session. It registered that mark as stocks traded at their session low, but retreated to below 70 late in the session as stocks advanced in their final run of the session.

The session's gains were broad based, but the financial sector was a general laggard. It closed 1.7% higher.

Swiss banking giant UBS (UBS 17.33, +0.67) showed relative strength after the Swiss government said it will inject the equivalent roughly $5 billion into the firm and the Swiss central bank will purchase nearly $60 billion worth of toxic assets. The moves mirror those made by governments and central banks across the globe to restore the financial system and credit markets.

Further reflecting the difficult conditions facing financial firms, Citigroup (C 15.90, -0.33) and Merrill Lynch (MER 18.35, +0.11) both posted losses for the latest quarter. The losses stem largely from asset write-downs and other impairment charges.

Outside the financial sector, the global leader in handset sales, Nokia (NOK 15.54, +0.43), met earnings expectations, as did health insurer UnitedHealth (UNH 22.63, +0.96). Conglomerate United Technologies (UTX 52.88, +3.63) topped earnings expectations with its results.

Online auction site eBay (EBAY 14.97, -0.36) beat the consensus, but issued downside guidance for the fourth quarter. Its shares fell, but that didn't stop the Nasdaq from outperforming its counterparts. Fellow Nasdaq components Yahoo! (YHOO 12.99, +1.24) and Microsoft (MSFT 24.19, +1.53) advanced on reports that suggested Microsoft may still have an interest in Yahoo.

Airlines fared extremely well, Southwest Airlines (LUV 12.49, +0.93) and Continental Airlines (CAL 15.75, +2.91) both announced better-than-expected third quarter earnings per share results, helping lift the Amex Airline Index 21%. Meanwhile, competitors UAL (UAUA 10.30, +2.59) and US Airways (LCC 6.78, +1.49) rode the tailwind of their large-cap brethren. Their gains helped the Russell 2000 advance 6.9%.

Lower oil prices also bode well for airlines. During the session, oil futures fell below $70 per barrel for a time, but settled closer to $72 per barrel. Concerns of a global slowdown continue to cut the price of the commodity, as did today's word that crude inventories grew by 5.61 million barrels. Analysts expected a build less than half that.

Despite oil's slide, the energy sector made the strongest gains, advancing 7.8% on strength in oil and gas exploration and production companies (+12.1%). The sector's advance comes in stark contrast to its 15.5% dive in the prior session.

In economic news, filings for jobless benefits declined 16,000 to 461,000, which was below the consensus 470,000 claims. The four-week moving average ticked up to 483,250 from 482,500 and leaves things on track for a 10th consecutive month of nonfarm payroll declines.

Industrial production for September decreased 2.8%, which is worse than the 0.8% downturn that was anticipated. It was the largest decline since 1974, but excluding extraordinary happenings industrial production would have been positive.

The core rate for CPI dropped to 0.1% in September and will probably stay at that level, or even drop to zero for the next few months. Total CPI was flat and may well be flat to down for several more months given the drop in energy prices. DJ30 +401.35 NASDAQ +89.38 NQ100 +5.5% R2K +6.9% SP400 +3.9% SP500 +38.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1862/3.35 bln/905 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2195/2.0 bln/954

[Robbien]

76. Lately it has been hedge fund redemptions causing these huge swings but

this guy Alistair Barr at MarketWatch is saying that hedge funds have just finished with their forced selling. There's a new seller in town, or so he says:


If hedge funds have already raised enough cash, that could reduce some of the pressure on these types of shares. However, the overall stock market may be already suffering from a new source of selling, TrimTabs added.
Mutual funds have been getting roughly $5 billion a day in redemptions in October because retail investors are spooked by the financial crisis, Biderman said.
Several times this month the stock market has slumped sharply during the final hour of trading. That may be because mutual fund managers are getting a summary of redemptions each afternoon and have to sell quickly to return investors' money by the next morning, Biderman explained.
"The problem with the market is not hedge funds anymore," he added. "Forced liquidations appear to be coming from mutual funds."
When forced selling by mutual funds stops, that may help the stock market stabilize. But such liquidations could last through the end of this year, partly because people may redeem losing mutual fund investments for tax purposes, Biderman explained.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hedge-funds-forced-hedge-fund/story.aspx?guid={2DCFF9D1-A772-4583-A4D8-8EDEF7BDF138}&dist=hplatest



interesting, no?