TIME Poll: Obama Makes Gains with Women, Hits New High (7-point lead, reaches 50%)

[DeepModem Mom]

Source: TIME

Propelled by concerns over the financial crisis and a return of support from female voters, Barack Obama has opened a formidable 7-point lead over John McCain, reaching the 50% threshold among likely voters for the first time in the general campaign for President, according to a new TIME poll.

Obama now leads McCain 50%-43% overall, up from 46%-41% before the parties' conventions a month ago. Obama's support is not just broader but sturdier; 23% of McCain supporters said they might change their mind, while only 15% of Obama's said they could be persuaded to switch.

Among the poll's most dramatic findings: McCain is losing female voters faster than Sarah Palin attracted them after the Republican National Convention. Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%. Before the conventions, women preferred Obama by a margin of 10 points, 49%-39%. After McCain picked Palin as his running mate, the gap narrowed to a virtual tie, with Obama holding a 1-point margin, 48%-47%.

In a stark indication of just how much the political landscape has changed over the past four years, white women now favor Obama by three points, 48%-45%; in 2004, George W. Bush won the same demographic by 11 points against John Kerry. Where Bush carried married women by 15 points in that election, 57%-42%, Obama now leads by 6 points, 50%-44%, a 21-point shift....

***

For McCain, the most troubling sign may come not from the details of the poll, which are grim for Republicans, but from the historical context. No Democrat has crossed the 50% threshold in the general election since before Ronald Reagan was elected, let alone do so a month before the election....

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1846065,00.html?xid=site-cnn-partner

[Frances]

1. Last Wednesday, I had a layover at the Dallas/Ft Worth Airport

When I got off the plane, the TVs were tuned to CNN with the headline about McCain wanting to postpone the debate. I stopped at the first TV I passed and asked a woman what was going on. She explained and I said I was voting Obama and she said she was too. She lives in Virginia so her vote is important.

A woman at the next TV I passed said she was voting for Obama too. There were also 3 men watching, all white and with Southern accents. One made a joke about McCain needing a nap. Another said he liked Palin. I don't think the men will vote Obama; I think they will vote Repub in spite of not respecting McCain. But their lack of enthusiasm was a positive sign to me because I would guess that over 90% of white, middle-aged Southern males are Republican. I know my two brothers are. I don't know how they got a sister like me who is 1000% Obama!!!!

[DeepModem Mom]

2. That's encouraging anecdotal evidence of women's support for Obama! nt

[Justyce]

3. "...over 90% of the white middle-aged Southern males

are Republican." I'm happy to say, that's not true where I am. I'm in a blue county in Texas. Every male in my family, except a few *odd* stray cousins, is and has always been a Democrat, as were both of my grandfathers. :)

[Frances]

7. Please count your blessings

I love my brothers, but I wish they were more open minded about politics.

[tclambert]

4. Palin strategy: FAIL

Didn't McCain pick Sarah Palin specifically to court womens' votes, especially Hillary supporters who might feel slighted that Obama defeated Hillary? And he got a bump in support from women for a little while. But now, they've figured out it was just a "nine days wonder." McCain's Palin strategy has failed.

[tclambert]

5. Angelina Jolie to replace Palin

I was thinking, if McCain just wanted a VP candidate who was a beautiful woman with lots of kids and a "good narrative," he should have gone with Angelina. She's way prettier than Palin. She has a lot of kids, some of them adopted kids. Remember, McCain has an adopted child. And here's the plus: Jolie has lots more international experience than Palin. Hell, Angelina has visited Darfur multiple times!

[KSDiva]

6. And she's articulate too. Something Palin can't manage

n/t

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

8. I have a feeling they're gonna have to settle for Jon Voight in drag. nt

[GoddessOfGuinness]

9. I doubt she'd want her reputation tainted by association