Round 1 in debates goes to Obama, poll says (CNN)

[underpants]

Source: CNN

OXFORD, Mississippi (CNN) -- A national poll of people who watched the first presidential debate suggests that Barack Obama came out on top, but there was overwhelming agreement that both Obama and John McCain would be able to handle the job of president if elected.

Fifty-one percent of those polled thought Obama did the best job in Friday night's debate, while 38 percent said John McCain did the best.

Men were nearly evenly split between the two candidates, with 46 percent giving the win to McCain, and 43 percent to Obama. But women voters tended to give Obama higher marks, with 59 percent calling him the night's winner, while just 31 percent said McCain won.

Poll interviews were conducted with 524 adult Americans who watched the debate and were conducted by telephone on September 26. All interviews were done after the end of the debate. The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned into the debate. Of the sample of debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent Republicans and 30 percent independents.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/27/debate.poll/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

---

CNN falls all over themselves in the rest of the article trying to question its own polling.

[ixion]

1. yeah, and how about that lede

allow me to translate: "Obama won, but that doesn't mean anything."

That's some really great yellow journalism, there CNN.

[ginnyinWI]

34. They want the horse race.

They don't want any viewers to get the impression that they can look away from CNN's coverage of this election for five minutes.

[Liberalynn]

2. So much for the theory that Obama has trouble with women voters.

:rofl: Looks like Grampy is the one with the problems even with Caribou Barbie on the ticket.

[Vinca]

3. Speaking of Barbie, I can't wait until her debate. That's going to be the one to watch. nt

[Liberalynn]

4. I'm making popcorn for that one

[Dr.Phool]

5. I'm buying a big bottle.

One shot for every time she says something stoopid. (In what respect is probably off limits for her).

On second thought, maybe a Moosehead. Nah, get too bloated.

[stevenleser]

7. You could always drink a Moussy

Its non-alcoholic beer from Switzerland. Pretty good

[Zambero]

17. In the event you watch that debate away from home...

PLEASE call for a cab afterwords, or arrange for a designated driver. Palin's responses will be rendering you comatose!

[Lucky Luciano]

27. Alcohol poisoning can be fatal and we need your vote!

Please reconsider!

[Dr.Phool]

44. I dropped my absentee ballot off last Monday.

Even if I die, my vote counts.

Well maybe. This is Florida, after all.

[Skarbrowe]

50. Wow. I asked for an absentee ballot in Florida a couple weeks ago and when

I didn't hear anything I called the Supervisor of Elections Office. They told me it would be sent out around the 8th of October. Scary. Because I will be out of state from October 15th until November 15th. I'm so afraid I'm going to lose my chance to vote. Glad you got yours in!

[Dr.Phool]

51. Pasco County sends them out too early I think.

We got them about 10 days ago.

It was even earlier for the primaries.

[Skarbrowe]

61. Someone told me today that there were mistakes on the absentee ballots and

they were being redone. ??? Worry, worry, worry...don't know if it's true. It was supposedly on some amendments. I let my longtime Floridian friend deal with that stuff on my ballot. I just vote straight Democrat on the candidates.

[JimDandy]

53. If you die before elction day, by law your vote SHOULDN'T be counted.

Whether it actually is counted or not is up to the vagaries of individual election offices.

Some election offices run a check against the U.S. Social Security Death Index and against their state's monthly death certificate index. Then, if a voter is found to have died before election day, and if ballots haven't been separated from their envelopes yet, election clerks can, and often do, reject that deceased voter's ballot.

Some jurisdictions, like Georgia, have election machines that use barcoding to match the voter with their electronic ballot. Those jurisdictions can conduct death checks right up to certification day. So, if a voter dies before election day, the election office locates their ballot on the machine's electronic media and paper printouts and invalidates it.

All Diebold/Premier machines have that capability. Election offices try to keep that knowledge from the public, though (Like the elections office did in Salt Lake City, Utah, during early voting), because U.S. citizens know that we're SUPPOSED to be voting by secret ballot. AFAIK, no one has taken the machine manufacturers or election offices to court over that yet. Sick, right?

[pipi_k]

33. uh oh...

One shot for each time she says something stoopid....


you'll be roaring drunk in five minutes....


:7

[DemFromMem]

22. Could be painful to watch

I don't know how gleeful I'm going to be watching Ms. Palin get hung out to dry by the idiots in the McCain campaign who have made her a national laughingstock. I remember Admiral Stockdale in the 1992 campaign and while I couldn't stand Ross Perot, I did feel bad for his running mate.

Palin could have the last laugh by withdrawing from the ticket and ruining McCain's chances in the election.

[stlsaxman]

39. Gwen Ifil will let Palin pass w/ flying colors.

A pity she's "moderating".

:mad:

[On the Road]

58. That's What They Said About

Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric.

[joewicker_TX]

64. If Biden eviscerates Palin, he will be labeled as sexist

and we will see the talking point through the end of the election. Fixed News already has the ads ready...bet!

[On the Road]

68. Biden Can be a Nice Guy

And he's smart enough to know there's no need to be an attack dog. Let her hang herself.

[stlsaxman]

66. Ah- but they aren't best buddies with Condi Rice now, are they?

[CRF450]

6. FOX was having an orgy over McSame, 85 to 15 I think

15% for Obama.

[Phred42]

8. Who were they Polling - The FOX staff?

:rofl:

[underpants]

12. It was a viewer text poll and McCain was highlighted in RED

Seriously, they had McCain's name highlighted. Obama and Not Sure kind of disappeared from the screen.

[Phred42]

14. Perfect

[Zambero]

16. Wingnuts attempting to stack the deck (unsuccessfully) for McCain

After all, his campaign's "McCain Wins Debate" photo banner hit the internet hours before McCain had finally confimed that he'd actually show up! A bit premature, even for the GOP's one-sided brand of propaganda.

[frogcycle]

24. says something about faux's remaining viewership

[Twinguard]

56. Do you want to hear something really scary?

My dad and I got into a shouting match last night. He thinks I need to get news from sources on both sides (which I try to do). I called him on that fully knowing that he only listens to conservative talk radio (especially Rush Limburger) and Faux News.

Here comes the scary part...

He thinks Fox is too LIBERAL.
:wow:

Yes, you read that right. He thinks CNN is an organization of left wing nutjobs, and he won't even acknowledge MSNBC. I think KO and Rachel Maddow would make his head explode. He refuses to look anything news related or fact checking related up on the internet because it's just a network of left wing whackos. In his very next breath, he told me that he's an independent and he's voted for as many dems as repubs. I told him that the way he's talking, i seriously doubted that. The dinner table had a seriously uncomfortable silence after that. I opened a bottle of wine and changed the subject, and we had a peaceful evening.

With an attitude like that, now can we possibly have any discussion about politics?

:banghead:

[llmart]

29. The cognitive dissonance....

when Obama's wins is going to explode their tiny, little, pea-sized heads because they'll go into the election thinking that McSame is going to win.

[CRF450]

59. I long for the day that happens

I hang out on a dirtbiking site that is full of repubs. Theirs a few who are absolutly disgusting with what they try to say about Obama while most are kinda on the fence through the arguments, though still voting for McCain, becuase in general these people truly believe that dems are hell bent on closing riding areas and a huge threat against off-roading activities which I admit I'm a part of also. But on that site their are some who are politically sane atleast but always get trashed on by the majority.

[libertad]

60. Right after the debate, all the news commentators were saying how

great McCain did. I couldn't believe it! Then the poll results came out and they started to change their tune a little bit.

[CrispyQ]

9. Duh!

"The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned into the debate. Of the sample of debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent Republicans and 30 percent independents."

Well, yeah! Dems want to hear candidates discuss the issues, not just 15 second sound bites!

[Vickers]

43. Yeah, but isn't it funny that all of a sudden Independents outnumber Repukes?

:rofl:

You might as well take about 90% of the Indy number and add it to the Repuke total (which would actually make it about 54% Repuke respondents).

It's amazing how many newly-minted Independents there are at work lately. :eyes:

Embarrassed former Repukes is more like it.

[LaloBorges]

10. important to stay with reality

Remember Reagan? "Well...there you go again", a line that stuck in people's minds. People look at this debates as if it was a boxing match, who scores the biggest punch? and they don't do it based on knowledge of the candidate, and they don't even know if he is telling the truth, all they remember is "He is naive, he doesn't get it!".

Obama needs to come in next time and "punch" hard, get some of those one-liners to hit McCain in the belly every time he calls him naive, or anything else.

"Senator, you have the vote of all the thinking people in this country...Madam, that is not enough, we need the votes of the 'majority'."

I cannot remember at this time who's quote that is but, that was a man who understood that the majority does not think so you have to be able to communicate at that level, and we know how well the republicans do that. Republicans are always banking on the stupidity of the US electorate, and that is why they win so much, they know they don't have to present facts or tell the truth, all they have to do is appeal to them, otherwise do any of you really believe this would be a close race?

You have to remind people that the one who doesn't get it is McCain. Remind people that McCain's participation in the Keating 5 is almost 100% the same as the current financial crisis; remind people that McCain IS PART OF THE PROBLEM, that his supporters help create this mess, such as Phil Gramm, remind people that McCain supporters are beneficiaries of the "Golden Parachutes", such as Carly Fiorina who received $39M for getting fired...Don't allow McCain to insult and use the one liners that most people will remember.

So...in my view, just because Obama let McCain get away with crap, it was an even debate...no winner.

Of course that Fox's poll is ridiculous, to say the least, but I have to admit that it is a tie and just because Obama let McCain get away with the one-liners.

[underpants]

11. Adlai Stephenson

that is a great quote.

I can't argue with you about your opinion but MY opinion is that Obama did what the middle clearly has said they are looking for-don't be negative, tell us what you are going to do. From a technical standpoint Obama took the first 30 minutes and looked right into the camera and connected. McCain did not and he didn't "win" any part but the last 1/3... in my humble opinion.

[theFrankFactor]

19. You Get it!

LaloBorges,

Couldn't be truer.

Here's what I think of the Republican base. Pass it around.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWxTQbfsEA8

[northernlights]

45. I don't think the line worked, though

I agree "He doesn't get it" was intended to be a one-liner, but I think it fell flatter than a pancake.

One-liners are supposed to be one-timers, too. They come in unexpectedly, out of the blue, and everybody, including your opponent, can't help but break into laughter, no matter how much they've promised not to. They simply can't help themselves.

This one was overly prepared -- he's already been saying it in other places. As a result, his delivery never hit the mark...the audience sat in dead silence and never even came close to breaking their promise not to laugh. So he kept repeating it until it just was laying there like a long-since beaten to death horse.

On the other hand, the audience did start to break out of their dead silence and into titters when Obama sent a zinger. Then they quickly hushed themselves. You could hear it start to spread across the room.

[jamesatemple]

13. What a crock!

"The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned into the debate. Of the sample of debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent Republicans and 30 percent independents."

Thirty percent Independents? Heh, heh! Nice try. The real ratio of voters was more like:

Democrats 41%
Republicans 52%
Independents 5%

There is no way that 30% of the respondents to a poll sample are genuine Independents. But I can certainly understand a large percentage of respondent Republicans wanting to distance themselves from the disaster they've been supporting for the past eight years by calling themselves "Independents". Fact is, some are litigating to have themselves recognized as GOP rather than use the word "Republican".

Besides, claiming to be an Independent allows Republicans some psychological "hidden identity" that justifies their telling the truth when doing so is so very much against their nature.

[asthmaticeog]

30. Cite a source for those figures, please? Preferably with a web linkl? nt

[jamesatemple]

55. You missed my point, asthmaticeog!

I was opining on the OP statement from CNN, "The results may be favoring Obama simply because more Democrats than Republicans tuned into the debate. Of the sample of debate-watchers questioned in this poll, 41 percent of the respondents identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent Republicans and 30 percent independents."

I didn't and don't believe that 30% of respondents to a Presidential-choice poll are truly "Independent" voters. I followed by coming to my own (fanciful) conclusion of a more realistic set of poll results and gave my reason why and how I came to that conclusion. Sorry if I "threw you a curve". Those figures are from my own imagination. Yet, I believe them to be more within the realm of reasonably expected results than those presented in the CNN report.

[asthmaticeog]

57. I got your point just fine. I wanted to know where you got the numbers with which you supported it.

And since you got them from your ass, I won't go around citing them. :hi:

[jamesatemple]

67. What a pleasant reply!

Heh, heh! I understand! You got my point but missed the fact that I wasn't offering the figures as valid. My communicative skills aren't that great. I appreciate your giving me an opportunity to clarify my expression.

It's nice to have a haven where folks can "visit" pleasantly, disagree amicably, and offer personal opinions that are not attacked but merely questioned. So many opinions that are offered by my friends here in East Texas are not substantiated upon reason but are predicated upon bias, prejudice, and ignorance. Sadly, votes are cast predicated upon the same.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

62. Who needs facts and figures when opinion is readily available?

[underpants]

31. The problem is that there are two sets-viewers and polled

They can't say their own poll is skewed if they had properly selected the respondents

Also it is Dems 50 Repubs 25 Indies 25

[Roland99]

15. Just watched Scarborough on MSNBC and Holtz-Eakin was on there.

Other than Holtz-Eakin being in dire need of coming out of the closet, he came off as quite the brain-dead, push-the-talking-points-at-all-costs robot.

Something I've seen time and time again in a way even more blatant, more annoying, and more :banghead:'ing than anything during the B/C campaigns. It's like they've completely lost all hope and effort of trying to sound intelligent and are totally relying upon their non-thinking, brain-dead, American Idol-loving sheep in their base to come out in enough numbers to overcome the Obama Tsunami.

[DeepModem Mom]

18. K&R

[PATRICK]

20. So what happened to 80-20?

Reweighted due to the "enthusiasm" of pro-Obama voters?
Changed because of late polling of those waiting for the dessicated pundits to tell them wha' happened?
Put through several "spin" cycles and reweighting to get back to a semblance of the depressing propaganda machine?

I am not even sure who is being honest at all with anything on the MSM. Many switched their spin midstream when the first reactions swelled in, then settled back into damage control and same-old same-old.

Useless. It would be nice to know even the true make-up of the GLOBAL viewing audience which was universally united in a huger victory for Obama than the morning after pill the media wants you to swallow.

And no, it was no tie in any way conceivably from any perspective relevant to politics.

[Sabien]

21. non-verbals...

Did you notice that John McCain wouldn't even look at Barack Obama? Even as the moderator tried to get the candidates to engage each other, McCain wouldn't look to his left. Obama routinely directed his comments to McCain and the moderator.

I counted 3 times that McCain looked at Obama, and two of them were when the candidates shook hands before and after the debates.

Watch the replay, it's creepy.

[earthlover]

25. McCain didn't even look Obama in the eye when they shook hands!!!!

The guy is so into himself

[underpants]

32. Obama also connected in the first 30 minutes by looking AT the camera

McCain rarely looked at the camera and he failed to connect with the viewer the INDIE viewers-that is what Obama accomplished last night

[LatteLibertine]

23. Someone

needs to tell Senator McCain, in a DEBATE-

1.You should speak about the person you're supposed to be debating as if they're in the same room. As a matter of fact the best approach is in point two.

2.You should directly address the person you're supposed to be be debating and make eye contact with them at least some of the time instead of solely with the moderator. Behaving in this manner makes it seem as if you are afraid of the person you are debating and/or you don't truly believe in the positions you are putting forth.

3.Try to use material that isn't at least a year old.

4.Try not to behave like you are doing another 60 minutes interview for 95% of the time.

5.Try not to lie about your opponent when he is six feet away from you.

Obama definitely seemed more confident, reasonable and intelligent. McCain looked like a rehearsed shell of a politician that simply didn't want to be there. Some of McCain's answers were good and that doesn't make up for the timid empty disingenuous delivery.

[underpants]

35. That is a great assessment

Even if the other guy is taller than you (the split screen was noticeable in that their shoulders weren't even) even if they are taller than you you look at their tie or whatever is at YOUR eye level. Unless McCain was trying to portray Obama as not being worthy of being on the same stage :shrug: but that doesn't sell with the middle/independent voters. Obama made eye contact with the audience on TV and talked about his plans not what his opponent has said and what he did 15 years ago.

[Towlie]

26. I think McCain did as well as he did by saying some things that will turn away conservatives.

My impression is that McCain did as well as he did by saying some things that are likely to turn away a portion of his conservative base. For example, there must have been many neocons who winced in disgust when McCain said "And we've got to -- to make sure that we have people who are trained interrogators so that we don't ever torture a prisoner ever again." (Contrast that with Sarah Palin's ridicule of the idea of "reading a terrorist his rights".)

Another thought: Both McCain and Obama showed an impressive and roughly equal familiarity with foreign affairs, but this will only set the bar higher for Sarah Palin when she has to go up against Joe Biden, who is just as capable as McCain and Obama. Palin could really make a fool of herself this Thursday, dragging McCain down with her.

[fascisthunter]

28. That Slip Up SHould Have Been Pounced On...

then again, there were many slip-ups with very little time. The whole damn debate seemed rushed. They all do actually...

[Hulk]

36. Neither Obama nor mcAncient won....JIM LEHRER won!!

I'd love to see Jim Lehrer moderate ALL the debates. He managed to stir it up, give them an opportunity to debate some issues in a "civil manner", and he had questions that hit the nails on the heads.

This is so much better than the other "jokes" for their own agendas. I hope we can get such "quality moderators" for the rest of the debates...this nation deserves a fair and unbiased opportunity to see these two men together...and Joe Biden and the "hockey mom". (she is going to be eaten alive on Thursday. I can hardly wait to watch it go down!)

[stubtoe]

47. Yeah, he does a really good job at it.

Must be a real talent to be a good moderator, especially at that level.

[pipi_k]

37. I heard the statistics this AM on CNN and wondered

just why is it that more Democrats than Republicans watched the debate...



Are Republicans so sure of themselves and their vote that they felt they didn't need to watch?

Or do they just not care because they figure McCain won't win anyway?


veddy interesting....

[stubtoe]

48. What's that old bumper sticker - "Vote Republican, it's easier than thinking"

:rofl:

[LiberalLovinLug]

54. They can't handle the truth

I think more Republicans did not watch the debate because they know they will have to hear the other side speak. Even though their guy will also get to talk, they just do not listen to anything unless it is pure Repuke. That's why they have FAUX news and Rush on 24/7. That's why the rest of the MSM knows they have to have on 2 conservatives for every 1 liberal. Thats why they welcome what the left would call right wing extremists like Coulter and Kristol, and refuse to let on what the right would call left wing extremists like Moore or Chomsky.

The reason they don't want to hear Obama is because they are deeply afraid that he may say something that makes sense to them. Conservative voters are reactionary, defensive folks who cannot ever admit they may have helped to screw the country by voting Republican last time. They would rather put their fingers in their ears "la la la la" and vote as they always have done in November. It is as it has always been, a battle between the socialist tax-and-spend liberals and the terr'ist fighting God-loving conservatives. And they don't want to hear anyone tell them otherwise!

[GoddessOfGuinness]

38. Well you have to admit, McShame was much better

than Chimpy in the 2004 debates.

My only concern with last night's debates was that every time McPain spewed one of his lies, Obama was visibly irritated. As the debate progressed, though, he started to relax, and smile at the old coot's insinuations.

[jerryster]

40. Screw CNN

Check out www.fivethirtyeight.com today. Things definitely went our way.

[ryanmuegge]

41. Zogby has McCain up by 2%.

I hate this country.

[Domitan]

42. Zogby is worthless

Why pay attention to it? Look at the other more reliable polls that show Obama ahead of McCain.

[Poseidan]

46. my 2 pennies

McCain definitely had some moments he could have done without. Barack had some moments too, but they weren't as bad. The 'stuttering' thing should be corrected. Have to better assert yourself externally.

Most of it was just the same old stuff. Kind of like watching a replay of Hillary vs. Obama.

And while McCain knew history, he didn't seem to know what to do with it (other than use it for political gain - not a redeeming trait, at his age).

[trudyco]

49. I thought it was much more evenly matched than I expected

McCain was calm and even sounded reasonable sometimes. Obama was also pretty calm and didn't call McCain on his BS. Like McSame kept up about Obama not having visited Iraq. But didn't Johnny go there for a photo-op? Didn't he say it was safe and he went to a market and it was safe- but in fact he was wearing a bullet proof vest and had security out the whazoo? And why didn't Obama point out McCains comment in the past that we might be in Iraq for 100 years? How is McCain going to finance that?

Also, McCain said repeatedly that he was going to take care of the troops - but isn't his VA record bad? Didn't he vote NOT to give vets benefits? So maybe his cutting the fat in the budget means cutting things that regular Americans would be very upset about. The vets being an example.

I guess debating isn't Obama's thing. Still, I had hoped he get a little more zingers in there. He DID look at the camera, which was really good.

[Skarbrowe]

63. I think McCain did exactly what was needed for the 46-48 percent of the

people who are going to vote for him. That means he did better than I expected. I feel we needed McCain to really look bad to the people who don't want Obama, but are not sure about McCain. Which is the opposite of what most people say. I'm not feeling very comfortable at the moment. Obama should be ahead by at least 10 points with all the crap the Republican party has pulled these past 8 years. This just doesn't feel right.

I saw through all the crap that McCain pulled in that debate. I also saw Obama stutter a bit too much even though what he said made all kinds of sense. It's like someone else said, It doesn't matter that "it's the economy, stupid"..it's the stupid voters. Hmmm, maybe I just said that.

[ladywnch]

52. I was one of the 524. They called the night before to get their pool together of who they would

be calling after the debates.

[OakCliffDem]

65. Kicked and Recommended