NOLA: Gustav could be deadly Katrina-Rita hybrid

[RedEarth]

Source: NOLA

Gustav could be deadly Katrina-Rita hybrid
by Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
Saturday August 30, 2008, 8:45 PM
As Hurricane Gustav threatens to crash ashore just west of Morgan City as a major Category 4 storm, the biggest threat to Louisiana residents will be catastrophic flooding caused by storm surge, two Louisiana State University coastal wetlands experts said.


In the New Orleans area, large sections of the West Bank could see surge overtopping pieces of a still-incomplete levee system, and it also could cause flooding in low-lying areas south of Slidell and in Madisonville, said Ivor van Heerden, a coastal geologist and assistant director of LSU's Louisiana Hurricane Center.

The Houma area could see surge as deep as 15 feet if Gustav keeps to its predicted path and intensity, said coastal biologist Robert Twilley.

"If it stays on this southwest Louisiana track, Gustav will be like a hybrid between Katrina and Rita," Twilley said. "And right in the middle, you've got the huge Atchafalaya basin."

Van Heerden agreed, warning that several levee reaches around Houma face open water, and the diagonal direction of the storm will make them perpendicular to the waves, making them susceptible to erosion.

"The bottom line is that what Katrina and Rita didn't destroy in 2005, this storm has the potential to do," he said.



Read more: http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/08/gustav_could_be_deadly_katrina.html

---

Nagin: Flee 'mother of all storms'

Warning that Gustav is the "mother of all storms," Mayor Ray Nagin late Saturday ordered a mandatory evacuation of the West Bank of New Orleans for 8 a.m. Sunday and the east bank for noon.

"We want 100 percent evacuation," Nagin said. "It has the potential to impact every area of this metropolitan area."



Katrina had a footprint of about 400 miles, he said. Gustav is about 900 miles and growing, Nagin said.

"This is worse than a Betsy, worse than a Katrina," he said.

The mayor speculated that Gustav is so fierce Baton Rouge likely will experience 100 mph winds.

"You need to be scared and you need to get your butts out of New Orleans right now," Nagin said.

Nagin said he expects Gustav to "punch holes in the Harvey Canal," which could cause the West Bank to become a bathtub.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/08/new_orleans_evacuation_ordered.html

[Catch22Dem]

1. NOLA residents, listen to your mayor...get your butts out

He's basically saying, if you stay there, you could die. I've lived through a few cat 5 typhoons when I was stationed in the Pacific but we had concrete homes...not the wooden ones the Americans build.

[thunder rising]

2. Obama on Gustav: Preparation 'appears to be good'

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/13012.html

Obama said he did not have plans to visit the area, saying “we can be a distraction in these situations.” Oh, so this is how a grownup reacts. (McCain/Palin can go, since nobody gives a shit anyway)

[FVZA_Colonel]

8. But if McCain/Palin go, they'll focus all the intention on them, and how much they "CARE!"

And that seems to be what they're planning on doing.

[dbonds]

3. I have a friend that lives in Houma.

His mother's GF won't leave, so his mother is staying there too. He almost didn't leave, but I insisted till he did. He couldn't take his chow with him though :(, too big to fit in the small car with the other stuff including 2 poodles.

[MaryEllen9399]

4. I have a question

I'm not from the area but if this storms hits like they are predicting and Nagin means the whole metro area will be affectrd, does that mean the Quarter will flood too?

[Ex Lurker]

5. Not a hydrologist so take this FWIW

I think the Quarter and Uptown would not flood unless the storm came up the Mississippi. In that case they would if the river levee was overtopped. There's a reason it's the oldest part of the city. The founders built on the highest ground in the ares.

[geomon666]

6. He knows those levees are garbage.

And he knows the government will let these people die again.

[fla nocount]

7. Then that's what he should say. It would buy a lot of cred. n/t

[Ex Lurker]

9. nobody's going to die

they may lose their homes again, but nobody will die because nobody will be there. They're dead serious about getting every soul out of there.

[Ex Lurker]

10. the threat this time is to the areas that wre largely spared last time

I expect the lower 9th and Lakefront to fare okay. This time it will be the Westbank and Northshore's turn. More directly in the past is coastal Acadiana. Houma will likely be wiped completley off the map. That's a town of nearly 35000.

[Kool Kitty]

11. I hope everyone in Plaquemines Parish

is getting out, too. There was so much damage there and you never hear about how it fared in the aftermath.

[Duer 157099]

12. So what are they doing differently this time?

What about the people who cannot evacuate? No cars, no place to go?

And what about the animals? Have arrangements been made so people can take their animals with them?

If not, then truly nothing has been learned.