STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday August 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday August 22, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 152
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2770 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2495 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2786
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 21, 2008

Dow... 11,430.21 +12.78 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,380.38 -8.70 (-0.36%)
S&P 500... 1,277.72 +3.18 (+0.25%)
Gold future... 839.00 +22.70 (+2.71%)
30-Year Bond 4.47% +0.02 (+0.50%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.84% +0.04 (+1.03%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Prognosis for the Labor Day Season
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

The recent correction in gold stocks has shot down the long term Elliott pattern proposed here several times. Wave 3 is not underway; but rather the chart suggests we are in a multi-year wave 2 pattern. Here is the chart of the $HUI in all its (now) mis-labeled glory. Whereas “proposed wave 3” looked to be in progress, unfortunately (for gold bulls), the chart is still somewhere in the wave 2 correction. By all logical accounts, Wave III is still in progress. Note that the low made last week has not breached the lows made throughout the wave 2 correction. A viscous correction? Yes. The end of the bull market? No. Remember, if the daily market action can spoil your day, your commitments are too great.

-chart-

...

Recent history has shown the week before Labor Day to be a quiet one in terms of trading volumes and benign market action. With low volumes and a lot of hope still in the market, I expect the in-progress bounce to continue. But it would not be wise to forget that the S&P 500 is in a long term downtrend; and this is best illustrated by the following chart showing that since October, it has been a series of lower highs and lower lows.

-chart-

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

15. I Don't Mean To "Make Waves" Here, But Considering How Much

we do not have a "Free Market", nor do we have an openly regulated market, but instead, we have an opaque, grossly manipulated market, with players unseen doing things that would be considered illegal or grossly foolish, if the people whose money was at risk knew what their appointed money managers were doing. In that kind of market, waves do not occur according to any predictable pattern.

No, it's more like being in a wave pool, run by a random wave generator, designed not for safety or effectiveness, but to drown as many victims as possible.

This is your market as written by Stephen King.

The only thing we haven't seen yet is the kind of wildness that brought down Barings, or the currencies in SE Asia, although I suppose the mortgage market would qualify, except there was more than one "In over his head" speculator. Other than USB, we haven't seen massive foreign money moving together, that we know of, either.

We desperately need to get back to the safe, boring, regulated, relatively low profit markets that kept the economy stable and growing.

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[radfringe]

3. good toon... :rofl: n/t

[ozymandius]

4. Oil holds above $121 on tension with Russia

SINGAPORE - Oil prices held above $121 a barrel Friday in Asia after jumping more than $5 overnight as investors mulled the likelihood that tension with Russia would further disrupt crude supplies to the West.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 21 cents at $121.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose $5.62 overnight to settle at $121.18 a barrel.

...

The United States and Poland signed a deal Wednesday to place a U.S. missile defense base just 115 miles (180 kilometers) from Russia's westernmost border — a move quickly denounced by Moscow.

Russia's Foreign Ministry warned that Moscow's response to further development of the missile defense shield would go beyond diplomacy.

...

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 0.14 cent to $3.302 a gallon, while gasoline prices rose 0.03 cent to $3.0455 a gallon. Natural gas futures increased 4.8 cents to $8.30 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. Oil speculators held great sway over prices, data suggest

WASHINGTON -- Regulators had long classified a private Swiss energy conglomerate called Vitol as a trader that primarily helped industrial firms that needed oil to run their businesses.

But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol's books last month, it found that the firm was in fact more of a speculator, holding oil contracts as a profit-making investment rather than a means of lining up the actual delivery of fuel. Even more surprising was the massive size of Vitol's portfolio -- at one point in July, the firm held 11% of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.

The discovery revealed how an individual financial player had gained enormous sway over the oil market without the knowledge of regulators. Other CFTC data showed that a significant amount of trading activity was concentrated in the hands of just a few speculators.

...

CFTC documents show Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on the Nymex as prices reached record levels. By June 6, for instance, Vitol had acquired a huge holding in oil contracts, betting prices would rise. The contracts were equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil -- about three times the amount the United States consumes daily. That day, the price of oil soared $11 to settle at $138.54. Oil prices eventually peaked at $147.27 a barrel July 11; crude closed at $114.98 on Wednesday.

The documents do not say how much Vitol put down to acquire this position, but under Nymex rules, the down payment could have been as little as $1 billion, with the company borrowing the rest.

...

Using swap dealers as intermediaries, investment funds have poured into the commodity markets, raising their holdings to $260 billion this year from $13 billion in 2003. During that same period, the price of crude oil rose unabated.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil21-2008aug21,0,3654822.story

[ozymandius]

9. "More Speculation about Those Oil Speculators"

A Washington Post article claiming that one firm, Vitrol, "at one point in July,... held 11 percent of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange" reinforced the beliefs of those who claim that unregulated speculation is behind the recent swings in commodity prices.

Jim Hamilton throws cold water on this idea. He has other objections to the article, but here's the one relating to the 11 percent figure that has received so much attention:

More speculation about those oil speculators, econbrowser: I normally leave it to folks like Dean Baker to beat up on the press. But I can't resist shining a bright light on today's story about oil speculators in the Washington Post, which has also been discussed by Mark Thoma and Tyler Cowen. ...

What ... does (David Cho) dig up? The article continues:

Even more surprising to the commodities markets was the massive size of Vitol's portfolio-- at one point in July, the firm held 11 percent of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.

That does sound like a lot, though enough details are left out to make me wonder what is actually being claimed here. Surely Cho doesn't literally mean "all the oil contracts," i.e., light sweet, Brent, heating oil, gasoline, and so on. If light sweet alone, are we talking about just futures, or futures plus options? Or is Cho possibly referring just to one very specific contract, such as the August CL futures contract? And were these positions held outright by Vitol or purchased on behalf of its clients?

.....

Again I'd like to know if we're including options somehow in this number. But more importantly, the claim that you can compare the number of notional barrels of oil implied by a futures contract if it were held to settlement with the number of physical barrels that the U.S. consumes repeats the egregious error committed by Michael Masters in his Senate testimony this May. You can't compare the outstanding NYMEX open interest with U.S. daily petroleum consumption numbers directly because they are measured in different units. Open interest is a stock-- it is measured in number of outstanding contracts at a particular point in time. Consumption is a flow-- it is measured in barrels per unit of time. You can't measure how many barrels of oil the U.S. consumes without specifying a time unit.

more...

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/08/more-speculatio.html

[ozymandius]

6. Fannie, Freddie rescue plans leave many anxious

WASHINGTON - A government rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be costly for scores of investment, banking and insurance companies that hold billions in preferred shares of the mortgage finance giants as assets.

Speculation has been building on Wall Street that a government investment to rescue Fannie and Freddie would come in the form of a cash infusion through the acquisition of preferred shares in the companies.

Those shares, which pay a bond-like yield, get preference over common shares in the event a company is liquidated.

While existing common stockholders would likely see the value of their stakes reduced to zero, the outcome is less certain for preferred shareholders.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080822/ap_on_bi_ge/mortgage_giants_crisis

[Robbien]

14. WSJ blog's take on timing of bailout

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are the current Rorschach tests in the equity market. If the stocks fall 20% on a given day, it can be explained by worries about bankruptcy. The stocks turn around? A government-led bailout is on the way, but not one that will wipe out stockholders. Whatever works.

“I think Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become trading sardines. You have a lot of day-traders looking at $3 and $4 stocks and trading them back and forth for no apparent reason…waiting for some kind of news on a government rescue,” says Douglas Kass of hedge fund Seabreeze Partners Management Inc., who is short both companies.

. . .

Activity in the options market this week have been concentrated in September and January options, which suggests that investors believe something will either happen in the next few weeks, or not until some point after elections in November. Options activity was heaviest on the call side Thursday. Nearly 30,000 Fannie Mae call options changed hands Thursday, most active at the $10 strike price.

“That’s the out-of-the-money ‘let’s take some disaster insurance’ if you’re short,” says Mike McCarty, options strategist at Meridian Equity Partners. “That’s a conclusion by many that this is going to be a next-year recapitalization, in which case they don’t want to have this ruin a good year if it were to rally between here and the end of the year.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/

[Demeter]

16. Cry Me a River

Maybe they won't have the cash on hand to buy another election.....

Why should they be exempt from the consequences?

[UpInArms]

22. Buffett expects government action on Fannie and Freddie

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080822/bs_nm/buffett_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett said the U.S. economy is unlikely to improve before 2009, and that he expects the government to take action to support troubled mortgage financiers Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N).

Speaking Friday on CNBC television, Buffett said retail businesses within his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N), insurance and investment conglomerate have been struggling and that the economy is now suffering from past excesses in the availability of credit.

"You always find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out. We found out that Wall Street has been kind of a nudist beach," said Buffett, the world's richest person, according to Forbes magazine.

"What we're seeing in business, in our retail businesses, or anything having to do with housing, is even a further slowing down in June and July, both in terms of credit experience where people first got in trouble with house payments, and now credit card payments," he said.

Referring to the economy, Buffett said: "In my judgment it won't be any better five months from now."

Buffett built Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire into a $180 billion conglomerate with some 76 businesses that sell such things as insurance, bricks, carpeting and manufactured housing, as well as ice cream, knives and underwear. It also invests in many blue-chip companies, including American Express Co (AXP.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N).

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

28. Buffett, others say high U.S. debt levels pose risks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett, the billionaire co-founder of a top private equity firm and a prominent voice for U.S. fiscal responsibility, called on the United States and its elected officials to combat the nation's fast-growing, multi-trillion dollar debt load.

Buffett, Blackstone Group LP co-founder Peter Peterson, and former Comptroller General David Walker were part of a panel that spoke Thursday night in Omaha, Nebraska following the national premiere of the documentary "I.O.U.S.A." The talk was simulcast in more than 350 movie theatres.

The film argues the country might face economic disaster if it can't find a way to pay some $53 trillion it has committed to spend -- and doesn't have now -- as the population ages, and Medicare and Social Security costs soar.

It also argues, and panelists agreed, that the United States has become too dependent on foreign investors to buy its goods and its publicly-issued debt. There was also agreement that many politicians fear making tough policy choices that have ramifications far beyond the current election cycle.

"Our politics have become so embedded and so partisan, with so many special interests, that they require a massive effort from the public telling them, 'we want something done'," Peterson said.

Buffett, who runs Omaha-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc and turns 78 on Aug 30, was more sanguine than other panelists, though he said he doesn't want debt to grow as a percentage of gross domestic product.

"The prospects of being born in the United States are still better than being born anyplace else in the world," Buffett said.

Buffett, the world's richest person according to Forbes magazine, added: "It has not paid to sell America short since 1776, and the time to start is not in 2008."

He added that even if there are more debts to cover, the United States will have greater resources to pay them. "The pie gets larger over time," he said.

Another panelist was Bill Novelli, chief executive of the AARP advocacy group for people 50 and older, who called for bringing health care inflation under control. A fifth was William Niskanen, chairman of the libertarian Cato Institute, who said the nation's retirement age should rise to 70.

CREDIBLE PLAN SOUGHT

Roughly four-fifths of the $53 trillion figure is related to projected shortfalls in Medicare and Social Security.

Most of the rest is what is commonly called the "national debt," which in July totaled nearly $9.6 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury Department's Bureau of Public Debt.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2250779920080822?sp=true

[InkAddict]

51. I was born naked and denied the opportunity to learn to swim.

I basically taught myself how to swim, "freestyle" only, and I can't do a turn, as an adult though I'm absolutely certain I don't do it well enough to outswim a tsunami or swim a triathlon. But I do remember hanging on the side of the deep end so I could be with friends, and I do remember the slavery of weeding the lawn before I was allowed to go to the pool at all on my allowance dime; no pool pass for me. I also remember the embarrassment of untreated athlete's foot and the dreaded toe checks that for a price, and I didn't have it, one could gain entrance even with disease.

"In my judgment it won't be any better five months from now."

No, it won't be any better for at least 10 years and most likely many more, say the term of the longest possible mortgage available in America today; so long, it will span generations. Unless those that perpetrated this scheme to break America are caught and eliminated from financial management positions across the globe, absolutely nothing will change. Along the way, if confiscated assets can be returned to persons swept away in the tsunami of corporate/political totalitarian gross irresponsibility, it may be possible to dig out at some undetermined point in the future. What hope is there for most alive today? Ten years is how long one's credit score is damaged by bankruptcy. The shame of what one did to survive a depression accounts for many families' ideosyncrasies and dysfunctionalities even today, and the nation's money system is for all intents and purposes, bankrupt. It is unsustainable under present conditions of political and corporate greed and corruption.

Because persons are adjudged to be slime because they were misguided (with malice) for the purpose of stealing incomes, assets, and votes while they were trying to care for the sick (sometimes themselves) and educate their children, and contribute fair value to their employers and communities so the CEOs and politicians could reap (and that's the right word too) obscene value from the nation's ex-workers and global slaves, absolutely nothing will change.

De-regulation, the irresponsibility of banking/lending fiduciaries, and the greed of energy commodity (oil) providers have created the perfect trifecta and put serious holes in the safety nets of our society if not outright removed them.

I only go to the beach once in a while: the sand is hot, the undertoe strong, and the sun bad for your skin (even w/sunscreen) but it's sure nice watching a financial Phelps body in a Speedo watching the flabbies.

[Hugin]

55. Well said InkAddict.

Very well said. :)

[ozymandius]

7. GM invests $500 million, bets small car can make money

LORDSTOWN, Ohio (Reuters) - General Motors Corp on Thursday said it would invest $500 million to build a new fuel-efficient, small car the automaker says will show it can make money in head-to-head competition with its Japanese rivals as it fights to return to profitability.

The new Chevrolet Cruze, which also will be sold in Europe and Asia, will be built at GM's Lordstown, Ohio assembly plant, a facility once threatened with closure that also makes the suddenly hot-selling Chevy Cobalt and the Pontiac G5.

...

Wagoner, who unveiled a full-scale model of the Cruze at the Lordstown plant, said the new compact would get "significantly" better mileage than the most efficient Cobalt it replaces -- pushing it toward 40 highway miles per gallon.

That gain, he said, would allow GM to move closer to meeting new federal fuel economy standards and to hike sticker prices. Raising prices on the car would allow GM to make money on its launch, something it has not done with the Cobalt.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080821/us_nm/gm_dc

[Demeter]

19. And only 40 Years After Giving That Market Away to Japan, and then Korea!

That's innovation, for you. That's meeting consumer demand. That would be funny, if Michigan weren't like a fish dying on the sun-baked beach for lack of water....

[Roland99]

59. GM, Ford Seek $50 Billion in U.S. Loans, Double Automakers' First Request

GM, Ford Seek $50 Billion in U.S. Loans, Double Automakers' First Request
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aIECoNZ8Zbgo&refer=news

Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., Chrysler LLC and U.S. auto-parts makers are seeking $50 billion in government-backed loans, double their initial request, to develop and build more fuel-efficient vehicles.

The U.S. automakers and the suppliers want Congress to appropriate $3.75 billion needed to back $25 billion in U.S. loans approved in last year's energy bill and add $25 billion in new loans over subsequent years, according to people familiar with the strategy. The industry is also seeking fewer restrictions on how the funding is used, the people said.

...

``Our plans, which require significant investments, are at risk because of limited access to capital,'' GM spokesman Greg Martin said, declining to comment on whether GM is seeking more than the original $25 billion. ``This program will open capital that is necessary to make sure our transformational plans continue at full speed and give us the best chance to succeed.''

Ford spokesman Mike Moran said the automaker had no comment on any funding beyond the $25 billion already approved.

uhhh...

[ozymandius]

8. Firms settle auction-rate probes; but more to come

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Three of Wall Street's top investment banks agreed to pay millions of dollars in fines and buy back billions of dollars in frozen, illiquid securities after U.S. regulators reached settlements over the way the firms sold auction-rate securities.

Despite the settlements, the industrywide investigation into auction-rate securities looks far from over as regulators said that, starting next week, they will review about 40 firms' practices, sources familiar with the investigation said.

In Thursday's settlement, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said Merrill Lynch & Co Inc, Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc have agreed to the settlement.

http://www.reuters.com/article/innovationNews/idUSN2129253220080822

[Robbien]

13. Hard to believe that what happened here is a criminal act, a huge criminal act

and M$M reports it as if it is no biggie, just resolving a minor matter of miscommunication. Bigger than Enron fraud and corruption happening right here, right now and the general public is made to be completely clueless.

Cuomo is probably in the same quandary Spitzer was in when several years back Spitzer caught these same guys cheating. Spitzer decided not to indict. I expect Cuomo won't either.

[Demeter]

18. Did Spitzer Decide, Or Was He Brought Down By Scandal Before He Could Act?

[Robbien]

26. This was around the turn of the century

2001 or 2002, if I'm recalling correctly.

JP Morgan and the rest of this gang of thieves issued underwriting reports on companies which were deceptive (in other words, pure lies). When Spitzer caught them at it, the gang started a massive PR campaign saying they were trustworthy. The general public was mainly unaware anything at all occurred. Spitzer dropped the issue.

I believe Spitzer was brought down before he could push the issue of fraud and corruption in the housing market.

[AnneD]

37. I totally agree with you, Robb.....

Interesting that it was some major bank that started asking questions about Spitzer's bank accounts. If it were one of their 'other' accounts wanting to launder their money off shore-no one would have raised an eyebrow. It seemed too coincidental to me. But then again, I am not an investigative reporter for a financial newspaper or The Inquirer either.

[ozymandius]

10. Ten Financial Entities On The Brink

Clearly Lehman (LEH) is on the brink of disaster. I talked about that on Tuesday in Lehman In Deep Trouble.

On Wednesday, the Financial Times was reporting Lehman’s secret talks to sell 50% stake stall.

Lehman Brothers, the beleaguered US investment bank, held secret talks to sell up to 50 per cent of its shares to South Korean or Chinese parties in the first week of August but failed to reach agreement with either.

The South Koreans and Chinese walked away after concluding that Lehman was asking too high a price, said New York-based people familiar with the potential buyers. Lehman declined to comment.

Fannie and Freddie Are Collapsing

Fannie Mae (FNM) is trading at $4.85 with a market cap of $5.19 billion and Freddie Mac (FRE) is trading at $3.16 with a market cap of $2.04 billion. Freddie Mac has promised to raise $5 billion in equity. Clearly that is not going to happen without a government bailout. The only question now is "How big will that bailout be" given that Fannie, Freddie Have An Enormous $223 Billion Debt Rollover Problem.

(Ozy: Here's Mish's full list.)

Financial Entities On The Brink

Lehman (LEH)
Washington Mutual (WM)
Fannie Mae (FNM)
Freddie Mac (FRE)
Corus Bank (CORS)
BankUnited (BKUNA)
Downey Savings (DSL)
Wachovia (WB)
Regions Financial (RF)
MBIA (MBI)
Ambac (ABK)

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/ten-financial-entities-on-brink.html

[Demeter]

20. So, Somebody's Finally Naming Names

Not that we couldn't guess from individual news items...

[DemReadingDU]

35. The usual suspects

though there are other names floating around the blogosphere. Maybe it's getting close for Paulson to whip out that bazooka

[Hugin]

36. Which brings to mind a tune... "Spirit in the Sky" -- Norman Greenbaum

*cranks SMW amps to overdrive*

"Spirit in the Sky" -- Norman Greenbaum (The best version.)

"When I die and they lay me to rest

Gonna go to the place that's the best

When I lay me down to die
Goin' up to the Spirit in the sky

Goin' up to the Spirit in the sky

That's where I'm gonna go when I die

When I die and they lay me to rest

Gonna go to the place that's the best.

Prepare yourself
You know it's a must

Gotta have a friend in Jesus

So you know that when you die
He's gonna recommend you to the spirit in the sky

Gonna recommend you to the spirit in the sky

That's where you're gonna go when you die

When you die and they lay you to rest
You're gonna go to the place that's the best.

Never been a sinner
I never sinned

I got a friend in Jesus

So you know that when I die
He's gonna set me up with tha spirit in the sky

Oh
Set me up with the spirit in the sky

That's where I'm gonna go when I die

When I die and they lay me to the rest
I'm gonna go to the place that's the best.
Go to the place that's the best."

http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/n/norman_greenbaum/spirit_in_the_sky.html <-- Page includes a kick-butt videeeeo! W00T!

Note: #1: It's impossible to play this song too loud. #2: I'm of the impression it was inspired by a higher power. (See: #1)

[AnneD]

38. The best Prag, the best....

:headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang::headbang:

Choice theme today...kicks some serious butt. Play it loud.

[Hugin]

40. ...

:headbang:

[AnneD]

45. I like the web site btw.....

got some MIA going now. Nice site to explore.

[Hugin]

50. I was pleased with it too.

Lots of goodies.

No pop-ups.

[ozymandius]

11. Have a nice day watching the Casino,

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Time for school.

:hi:

[Roland99]

12. I'll be lurking here and there! And check out the new documentary....

from former Comptroller David M. Walker. On CNBC right now if anyone can view it.


http://www.iousathemovie.com/

[UpInArms]

17. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.517 Change font color=green]+0.495 (+0.65%)


US Dollar Tumbles As Leading Indicators Plunge - Fed's Bernanke Speaks on Friday

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Tumbles_As_Leading_1219358001541.html

The US Dollar pulled back across the majors this morning as the overbought currency finally shows signs of correction. The release of the Conference Board's US leading indicator triggered the move as the index of 0.7 percent in July, which mark the worst drop since the credit crunch began at the end of last summer. Looking at a breakdown of the index, rising jobless claims and deteriorating building permits and stock prices all took a toll. However, the declines are not entirely surprising given the broad losses in the labor markets, housing sector, and equity markets. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are showing diminishing rate hike expectations for the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months, as they now price in 56bps of increases compared to over 75bps just a week ago. Furthermore, the latest forex positioning numbers show that the US dollar is likely to weaken before continuing its rally.

Additional event risk looms on Friday at 10:00 EDT, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on financial stability at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. His commentary tends to ignite major volatility for not only the greenback, but also for US Treasury and equity markets (and thus, the Japanese Yen crosses). Given the uncertainty surrounding the health of US financial institutions, commentary on the financial markets will be watched closely and bearish sentiment by Mr. Bernanke could weigh heavily on risk-appetite. On the other hand, if Mr. Bernanke signals optimism that the US economy and financial sector can weather the storm, the US Dollar and risky assets, in general, could gain.

...more...

Pound Plummets As Growth Stalls, Euro Follows Suit

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Pound_Plummets_As_Growth_Stalls__1219400049298.html

The pound reversed yesterday’s gains after the second reading for 2Q GDP was flat. After reaching as high as 1.8797 during the U.S. session the sterling dropped over two hundred points to 1.8573. Growth in the U.K. was unexpectedly revised lower to 0.0% from the first reading of 1.5%. Rising inflation has sapped consumer’s purchasing power leading to a 0.1% decline in personal consumption and a 1.4% fall in imports. A 0.5% drop in exports and services remaining at 0.2%-the weakest since 2002 contributed to growth stalling.

The lack of growth from the service industry which accounts for three-quarters has put the U.K. economy at the door step of a recession. The decline in the manufacturing sector continues to worsen as July’s PMI reading was the third straight month that it contracted and lowest on record. Although retail sales rebounded 0.8% in July, inflation at 4.4% and rising and a labor market which has lost over 40,000 jobs the past two months combined will weigh on consumer spending going forward. The dour growth story for the U.K. may force the BoE to put aside their concerns about inflation and take measures to foster growth.

The Euro gave back some of its gains from yesterday as well, after the June’s current account reading showed the deficit widening to 8.2 billion from a revised -5.5 billion the month prior. Pound selling and the industrial new orders report showing the biggest drop in six years also weighed on the currency. Although manufacturing demand declined 7.4% on an annualized basis, June’s 0.3% decline was better than the -1.5% that was expected.

The major event risk for the U.S. dollar today other than oil prices is the scheduled speech today at 10:00AM EST by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. As DailyFX analyst Terri Belkas commented yesterday, “Given the uncertainty surrounding the health of US financial institutions, commentary on the financial markets will be watched closely and bearish sentiment by Mr. Bernanke could weigh heavily on risk-appetite.” If the chairman’s testimony proves uneventful the current easing of oil prices following yesterday’s jump on geopolitical concerns could add to dollar strength.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Dollar May Drop Without Action From The Fed

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/Dollar_May_Drop_Without_Action_1219269963895.html

Last week, the dollar closed its fifth consecutive week in the green – the currency’s strongest run in more than two years. However, this rally may soon run out of steam if the Fed doesn’t boost the greenback’s appeal.



CREDIT MARKET: HOW IS IT DOING?


Last week, the dollar closed its fifth consecutive week in the green – the currency’s strongest run in more than two years. However, this rally may soon run out of steam if the Fed doesn’t boost the greenback’s appeal. Caution has clearly turned the currency market to congestion this past week as FOMC rate expectations show a slimmer probability for rate cuts in the new future. Fed Fund futures are pricing in an 88 percent probability of no change to the 2.00 percent benchmark lending rate at the September 16th policy meeting. However, looking out over the coming year, the markets seem to be assured of at least one quarter point hike. Regardless, speculation can have only so much sway over a market without the actions to back it up. If the Fed doesn’t at least indicate the votes are becoming more hawkish, problems with growth and the financial market will sap the dollar’s strength.



<snip>

FINANCIAL MARKETS: HOW ARE THEY DOING?



The rebound in US capital markets has stalled through this past week. Though the advance in benchmark equities markets was choppy to begin with, a few strong down days have clearly cooled the potential for a bull market based on momentum alone. Looking at the developments in surrounding markets, it isn’t surprising to see this happen. The swift drop in key commodity prices (a factor that boosted growth expectations as well as business revenue forecasts) has found a tough level of support. The investment outlook continues to deteriorate thanks to deteriorating consumer spending and residential market activity. These issues are made all the more dramatic with the foundation of the financial markets in jeopardy. Accumulated losses from major banks and consumer lenders have raised speculation that another Bear Stearns-level failure is inevitable and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be forced to seek capital from an ever-more frugal investor.



<snip>

U.S. CONSUMER: HOW ARE THEY DOING?



Similar to the extreme rally in the US dollar, the sharp drop in consumer confidence seems to have hit a level of equilibrium. This past week, the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence reading for August rose for a second month from its multi-decade low through June. This rebound has come through in improvements to the economic outlook as well as the forecast for inflation trends (though current conditions are still considered quite bad). The inflation forecast will be key going forward as Americans have just started to see wage growth contract and unemployment rise. With housing equity essentially out of the picture and credit tapped, spending will rely on perceptions of affordability. In this, the pull back in interest rate forecasts from 5.2 to 4.8 percent is encouraging; but with CPI hitting 17 year highs and upstream core PPI at similar highs, even this bright spot may fade.



...more...

[Ghost Dog]

29. Markets await Bernanke as central bankers gather

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke tackles financial stability in a key speech on Friday but economists doubt he will provide solid clues about future policy action to calm the credit crunch.

Central bankers are gathering in this mountain resort for an annual symposium as financial markets tense for more home loan losses, amid concern that U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will need government cash.

This time last year, Bernanke told the conference the Fed would take steps to shield the economy from the U.S. housing collapse, but would not bail out investors.

Since then, the Fed has slashed interest rates and lined up billions of dollars in emergency credit to prevent markets from seizing up over mountainous home loan losses. But conditions remain strained.

"I think he will bend over backward not to give markets much to go on. Just ask yourself what has happened since the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting," said Bob Eisenbeis, former head of research at the Atlanta Fed.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/bankingFinancial/idUKN2150343420080822?rpc=401&&pageNumber=1

[Ghost Dog]

52. Bernanke says US economic storm 'has not yet subsided'

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday the financial storm that began last year "has not yet subsided," creating "one of the most challenging" economic environments in memory.

In comments to the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bernanke said economic conditions remain soft as unemployment is rising and inflation pressures remain hot.

The mix has created "one of the most challenging economic and policy environments in memory," Bernanke said, according to a text of his remarks released by the central bank.

Bernanke said the Fed is been working on three fronts in an effort to maintain economic stability -- keeping interest rates low to prevent a collapse of economic activity, offering extra liquidity to banks and brokerages facing a credit squeeze, and revamping the regulatory structure to prevent a recurrence of the housing boom-bust cycle.

"By cushioning the first-round economic impact of the financial stress, we hoped also to minimize the risks of a so-called adverse feedback loop in which economic weakness exacerbates financial stress, which, in turn, further damages economic prospects," he said.

Yet Bernanke said the efforts to prop up the economy are complicated by a commodity-fuelled surge in inflation.

But he said the Fed's strategy "has been conditioned on our expectation that the prices of oil and other commodities would ultimately stabilize, in part as the result of slowing global growth."

He said the Fed's extraordinary efforts to pump liquidity into the financial system were "intended to mitigate what have been, at times, very severe strains in short-term funding markets and, by providing an additional source of financing, to allow banks and other financial institutions to de-leverage in a more orderly manner."

Bernanke said the Fed and government authorities are looking at more comprehensive regulatory overhauls to help avert further crises and stabilize the financial system.

This means moving beyond the banking system that is closely regulated by the Fed and having tighter rules for investment firms and brokerages that allows regulators to potentially step in and take control in a manner similar to that of a failed bank.

...

He said another point to consider is "a more fully integrated overview of the entire financial system," which he said "has become less bank-centered."

/... http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/newsmlmmd.ddef9e277d720b891df0f2a81953689b.121.html

[UpInArms]

23. Do The Taxpayers Foot the Bill for the Fed's Jackson Hole Retreat?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mountain-worry-jackson-hole/story.aspx?guid=9A7EE483-8A70-499E-B552-8F8527D793C2&dist=SecMostRead

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In 1971 a local Jackson Hole resident named Bill Briggs decided to ski down the 13,770-foot Grand Teton mountain. His friends, watching from a safe location, were sure at one point that he had crashed only, to be flabbergasted when he turned up at the bottom in one piece.

Now, 37 years later, the U.S. economy is on a similar perilous course, and Fed officials, gathering for their annual retreat at the base of the Tetons, are watching with their hearts in their throats -- aware of all the possible avalanches, crevices and cliffs that could send the economy dangerously off course.

"You don't know what is going to break loose," said former Fed Gov. Susan Phillips.

The theme of the Fed's Jackson Hole seminar this year, 'Maintaining stability in a changing financial system,' seems more like a prayer to the mountain gods than anything else.

Behind the scenes and on the sidelines, conference participants are going to be debating the Fed's dramatic actions over the past year to stem the crisis and protect the economy. And they'll be pondering what more could or should be done.
Rate cuts, and new loans

The Fed has slashed interest rates over the past year to 2% from 5.25%, but that's the least of what they've done. In addition to traditional rate cuts, the Fed has instituted several innovative emergency loan programs to provide liquidity to commercial and investment banks.

The Fed has now moved to the sidelines - unwilling to move rates lower due to the threat of inflation and having promised to keep lending cash to financial institutions until at least the New Year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Oracle's Ellison grabs top spot on best-paid list @ $84.6 million

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080822/ap_on_bi_ge/executive_compensation;_ylt=Ag1qGDrZDnDsAmHrYA0iSsmb.HQA

SAN FRANCISCO - Oracle Corp. founder Larry Ellison, a longtime fixture on the list of the world's richest people, is now ensconced atop The Associated Press' rankings of the top-paid chief executives in the United States.

Never shy about flaunting his estimated $25 billion fortune, Ellison established himself as the best-paid CEO among major U.S. companies by persuading Oracle to award him a fiscal 2008 pay package valued at $84.6 million under the AP's calculations.

The total compensation, disclosed late Wednesday in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, catapulted Ellison to the top of the AP's annual analysis of CEO pay.

With a pay package valued at $83.1 million, Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain held that distinction in June when the AP released its 2008 analysis of executive compensation at more than 400 large companies.

The details about Ellison's compensation weren't available at that time because Oracle operates on an unusual fiscal year ending in May. The anomaly lets Oracle wait until late summer to make the SEC-mandated disclosures about Ellison's pay.

The AP's rankings cover disclosures made within the same calendar year, meaning Ellison could be surpassed if an SEC filing during the next four months reveals another CEO received an even bigger pay package.

<snip>

Excluding those stock option gains, Ellison's latest pay package represented a 38 percent raise from fiscal 2007, when his compensation was valued at $61.2 million. That ranked Ellison as the second-best paid CEO, behind Yahoo's then-CEO, Terry Semel, who got a package valued at $71.7 million.

...more...

[Demeter]

65. Half of the Top 10 CEOs Earners for 2007 Are Running Bankrupt Companies

which ought to be a clue right there.

[UpInArms]

25. The Knife's-Edge Economy

(I apologize if this is a re-post - but it's worth reading)

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2008/08/the_knifesedge_economy.html

Since 2003, I have been saying that the global economy is badly unbalanced and vulnerable to a macroeconomic catastrophe that would yield one of the worst episodes of economic distress of modern times. Since 2004, I have been saying that the situation, once it started, would probably become clear within a year: we would know whether the global economy would right itself or begin a downward spiral. In 2004-2007, I considered that I might be wrong about a relatively rapid resolution to the world’s economic distress: as the late Rudi Dornbusch put it, unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances can sustain themselves longer than economists (with their touching faith in rational human decision making) believe is possible.


A year ago, however, with the subprime mortgage meltdown of August 2007, I became certain. The situation had to resolve itself within a year – or else. Either central banks would manage somehow to thread the needle and guide exchange rates and asset prices back to some stable and sustainable equilibrium configuration, or the chaos and disruption in financial markets would spill over into the real economy and a major global downturn would begin. The odds heavily favored the second outcome: global macroeconomic distress.

But I was wrong. Here we are, fully a year later, and things are still balanced on the knife’s edge.

<snipping out the fed chearleading>

If you had asked me a year ago whether this degree of financial chaos was consistent with a domestic US economy not clearly in recession, I would have said no. If you had asked me a year ago whether a year could pass without either a restoration of confidence in financial institutions or widespread nationalizations and liquidations, I would have said no. Unstable and unsustainable configurations must come to an end.

Rudi Dornbusch was right: imbalances can last for longer than economists believe possible. But that does not mean that the water will not eventually run down the hill.

...more at link...

(edited for that stupid glitch in the title line with the apostrophe thing)

[Demeter]

66. It Only Looks Like the Economy Is on a Knife's Edge

Lots of concealed and fraudulent data cover up the magnitude of the disaster today.

[Robbien]

27. Nigeria has a commission called Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission

The Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) is advocating life imprisonment for people indicted for all forms of corruption in Nigeria.

The Chairman of the ICPC, Justice Emmanuel Ayoola (rtd.), said corruption had “robbed the people of decent life, good roads, quality education, good health care and other social amenities.

“Any leader who keeps on denying his people of the good things of life because of corrupt tendency should be jailed for life without remission,”

”Corruption breeds misery and widespread poverty among our people. No leader can succeed in any country unless corruption is battled to a halt, corruption must be fought to a halt since it was crippling Nigeria and Nigerians very fast.”

"The ICPC is mobilising the people to be able to challenge and make those in government accountable.”

http://www.ngex.com/news/public/newsinfo.php?nid=6989

Waging a war on corruption, what a novel idea.

[Dr.Phool]

34. Just think of the possibilities.

They'd be forced to let out every petty drug offender in the system, and build a few more prisons, just to lock up a small percentage of them.

[Ghost Dog]

30. GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia stocks at 2-yr low as oil edges up

HONG KONG, Aug 22 (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell to a two-year low on Friday, down for a fourth straight week, after a surge in oil prices above $121 enflamed inflation worries and the spiralling financial crisis showed no signs of ending.

...

Investors' anxieties about the financial sector remain unsoothed. Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), one of the top U.S. mortgage finance companies, is talking with private-equity and other investors about buying some shares but faces fears that a government bailout would wipe out any investment, The Wall Street Journal said.

Japan's Nikkei share average .N225 fell 0.7 percent to 12,666.04, its lowest close in nearly five months, as exporters such as Honda Motor Co (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) declined on a stronger yen.

"The trading environment is worse than yesterday as the yen became stronger after yesterday's close and oil prices rose sharply," said Yoshinori Nagano, chief strategist at Daiwa Asset Management.

"Lingering worries about the global economy, including Japan, are also weighing on the market."

The MSCI pan-Asia stocks index .MIAS00000PUS was down 0.8 percent, after hitting a two-year low in early trade. The Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index edged up 0.2 percent but lost nearly 3.0 percent on the week.

South Korea's KOSPI shed 1.0 percent to a 16-month low, with shares of the country's top commercial lender, Kookmin Bank (060000.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) leading the index lower with a 6 percent fall.

HongKong's markets were shut because of a typhoon.

MARKETS BOTTOMING OUT?

Some analysts said markets in Asia were getting closer to a bottom, assuming that the U.S. recession began when regional markets peaked in November 2007.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSP26087420080822?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

31. Nikkei closes at 5-month low, exporters lead fall

TOKYO, Aug 22 (Reuters) - The Nikkei average sank 0.7 percent to its lowest close in nearly five months on Friday, as blue-chip exporters such as Honda Motor Co (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell on a stronger yen and deepening concerns about the global economy.

Financial stocks suffered as credit woes continued to haunt Wall Street, with top lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) ending at its lowest close since March 17, when the market plunged on investor panic over the near-collapse of U.S. securities giant Bear Stearns.

The market's fall was mitigated after sharp gains in oil prices lifted energy shares such as Inpex Holdings (1605.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), and Shionogi & Co Ltd (4507.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and other drugmakers climbed as investors switched bets on stocks considered less vulnerable to an economic downturn.

"The atmosphere surrounding the market is pitch dark," said Harushige Kobayashi, head of research at Maruwa Securities.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAT28965620080822?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

32. China replaces US as Japan's biggest export market

China has replaced the United States as Japan's biggest export destination, underlining the Olympic host's emergence as a global economic power.

Japan's finance ministry said exports to China outstripped those to the US in July, marking the 38th consecutive increase in exports to its Asian neighbour. It was the first time Japan had sold more goods to China than to any other country since the government started keeping records in 1950. Economists are sceptical that exports to China will continue to drive Japan's faltering economic recovery.

Exports to China for the month rose to a record high of ¥1.28tn (£6.25bn), up 16.8% from a year earlier, the ministry said. Those to the US dropped 11.5% to ¥1.27tn as Japanese car makers struggled to sell to the troubled US market. Japan's overall exports rose just over 8% to ¥7.63tn, but high oil prices saw imports leap by 18.2% to ¥7.541tn, the fastest pace in two years.

As a result Japan's trade surplus plummeted 86.6% to ¥91.1bn - the fifth decline in as many months, and bigger than analysts had predicted.

Japan's stuttering recovery has been fuelled by exports to China, and yesterday's figures may allay fears that it is again heading towards recession prompted by data showing that the economy shrank in the second quarter of this year. It will continue to depend on Asian custom for its exports. Its trade surplus with the rest of the continent rose 42.3% in July, with exports rising 12.7%, though demand for steel, chemical and electronic machinery is showing signs of weakening, analysts said.

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/22/japan.china

[Ghost Dog]

33. European shares extend gains on Lehman

FRANKFURT, Aug 22 (Reuters) - European shares extended gains by Friday early afternoon after news that after state-run Korea Development Bank said the Wall Street bank was one of its options for acquisitions, pushing banking stocks higher.

By 1147 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was up 1.2 percent at 1,168.02 points.

Lehman shares traded in Frankfurt (LHMH.F: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) jumped 8.9 percent and the DJ Stoxx European banking index rose 2.4 percent on the news, lifting the pan-European index.

"There is hope now that the financial crisis is not that bad after all and that we will all be rescued," a trader said.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALM63108920080822?rpc=44

:crazy:

[Ghost Dog]

47. Financials power European stocks higher

LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - European shares ended sharply higher on Friday, lifted by a rebound in financial stocks on the prospect that U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) might be bought, while oil eased below $118 a barrel.

Influential U.S. investor Warren Buffett also boosted sentiment by saying that stocks looked more attractive now than they did a year ago.

"Let's hope he is right. Most of us think he is. The bulls would agree on his comments about valuations," said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at wealth managers Brewin Dolphin.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index ended up 1.7 percent provisionally at 1,174.46, ending some 1.3 percent down on the week.

The DJ Stoxx banking index rose 3.0 percent after falling 6.3 percent in the past five sessions.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALM14550620080822?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

48. Eurozone factory orders slump more than expected in June

Factories in the 15 nations sharing the euro saw demand fall 0.3 percent in June, slightly less than expected and far more palatable than the 5.4 percent plunge suffered in May, official figures showed Friday.

However the annual 7.4 percent fall in new industrial orders from June 2007 to June 2008, as seen in the European Union's Eurostat data agency figures, underlines the problems European industry faces amid soaring oil prices, a historically high euro and the credit crunch born of the US subprime loan crisis.

Nevertheless the latest figures come as a relief after economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires predicted, on average, that industrial orders would fall by 1.6 percent.

However if that's the relatively good news then the bad news is that Eurostat revised the May drop to 5.4 percent from an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent.

/. http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080822120706.zfh8ehpm&show_article=1

[Ghost Dog]

49. British Economy Stalled In Second Quarter

LONDON (Dow Jones) -- The British economy stalled in the second quarter, posting no growth compared to the first three months of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Friday in its first revision of second-quarter gross domestic product data.

The ONS had initially pegged quarterly real gross domestic product growth at a meager 0.2%, making for a 1.6% annual rise compared to the second quarter of 2007.

Friday's data found zero growth in the quarter, bringing the annual pace down to 1.4%.

The quarterly figure was the weakest since the second quarter of 1992, and the annual pace of growth is the weakest since the end of 1992. Economists had expected a smaller downward revision to growth.

The pound tumbled sharply on the news and remains 0.9% lower against the U.S. dollar at $.18606 and 0.7% lower against the euro at 79.83 pence.

Economists said the figures could prompt the Bank of England to resume cutting interest rates by this fall. The central bank has left its key lending rate unchanged at 5% since April as it wrestles with a policy dilemma created by surging inflation pressures and fears of a sharp economic downturn.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=55d1d814-871d-47d0-b262-a51cf6d9ba5a

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

39. Aren't these one-day bubbles fun?

CLV08.NYM Crude Oil Oct 08 118.65 10:01am ET Down 2.53 (2.09%)
HOU08.NYM Heating Oil Sep 08 3.2265 10:00am ET Down 0.0741 (2.25%)
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 8.182 10:01am ET Down 0.07 (0.85%)
PNU08.NYM Propane Gas Sep 08 1.68 9:13am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBU08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Sep 08 2.9641 10:01am ET Down 0.0811 (2.66%)

ALQ08.CMX Aluminum Aug 08 1.2925 10:07am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
HGQ08.CMX Copper Aug 08 3.511 8:12am ET Down 0.05 (1.40%)
ZGQ08.CBT Gold 100 oz. Futures,Aug-2008 828.10 10:31am ET Down 5.50 (0.66%)
GCQ08.CMX Gold Aug 08 824.30 9:09am ET Down 8.70 (1.04%)
PAU08.NYM Palladium Sep 08 286.55 10:02am ET Down 2.60 (0.90%)

CU08.CBT Corn Sep 08 584.00 10:53am ET Down 13.75 (2.30%)
OU08.CBT Oats Sep 08 376.50 Aug 19 0.00 (0.00%)
RRU08.CBT Rough Rice Sep 08 17.69 10:49am ET Down 0.36 (1.99%)
SMU08.CBT Soybean Meal Sep 08 356.10 10:54am ET Down 1.60 (0.45%)
BOU08.CBT Soybean Oil Sep 08 54.94 10:50am ET Down 0.62 (1.12%)
SU08.CBT Soybeans Sep 08 1,326.00 10:52am ET Down 15.00 (1.12%)

FCQ08.CME Feeder Cattle Aug 08 112.80 10:44am ET Down 0.025 (0.02%)
PBQ08.CME Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 08 80.00 Aug 21 0.00 (0.00%)
LHV08.CME Lean Hogs Oct 08 74.45 10:56am ET Down 0.325 (0.43%)
LCQ08.CME Live Cattle Aug 08 101.15 10:54am ET Down 0.30 (0.30%)

CCU08.NYB Cocoa Sep 08 2,840.00 Aug 21 Up 16.00 (0.57%)
KCU08.NYB Coffee Sep 08 140.45 10:28am ET Up 0.60 (0.43%)
CTV08.NYB Cotton Oct 08 66.78 10:26am ET Down 0.75 (1.11%)
LBU08.CME Lumber Sep 08 257.60 10:56am ET Down 6.90 (2.61%)
OJU08.NYB Orange Juice Sep 08 106.00 10:37am ET Up 2.00 (1.92%)
SBV08.NYB Sugar #11 Oct 08 14.05 10:36am ET Down 0.09 (0.64%)

Two things:

1. Your humble correspondent apologizes for the markedly fewer posts lately, but life is what happens when you aren't posting on DU.

2. Your humble correspondent desperately wishes he was smarter and could divine what is at play, beneath the presented veneer of the commodities markets. Rank manipulation and gaming does not account for everything, and when T. Boone is squawking about Peak Oil, you know the fix is in on that. Somewhere out there lies The Truth. Anyone seen Mulder?

[radfringe]

41. jellyfish fields forever....... ;)

[Hugin]

43. No need to apologize...

None at all. Just post it when you are able.

No need to divine either. Just the facts, man.

Thanks for telling the 'Peakers' how it is.

[AnneD]

42. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. Well, I don't know if it was my crystal ball or my post-or maybe I am on a psychic wave length, but Barack Obama did me proud yesterday. McCain made a stupid gaff about the number of houses he had and someone for Obama was all over it like white on rice. It got a lot of free press in the M$M, and it is sticking in the craw of the average American like Aunt Bernice's Christmas fruit cake this morning. Their 'response' to Barack's was tepid at best. Now Barack will have to go on the offensive more. He needs to get his Bush brush out and start painting.

Considering the financial news that is afoot and the shoes that are about to drop, they need to start cranking out the facts. Just KISS (keep it simple stupid). I have more faith in Warren Buffet than Hank Paulson-and he's calling them out. I am beginning to think that the banks will fall like dominoes despite this regime's attempt to stop it.

I think it will be a busy time for the week end economist.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears. And mind you, watch out for falling icicles.

[SpiralHawk]

46. "Just wait till you bite into your fruitcake this year, dearie." - Aunt Bernice

[AnneD]

56. Aunt Bernice has long since gone to her heavenly reward...

but she did leave me with a knack for making pie crusts- and fillings too, yeast rolls and breads and a green thumb for african violets. In fact, my hair is now the silver infused dark brown that I remember her having when I was a child. She was an itinerant cook in her younger days, usually for lumberjack-so she could seriously cook. And when she smothered you with one of her hugs (she was amply endowed), she smelled of fresh baked yeast rolls and lavender talc. The one thing she never mastered was the fruitcake. THAT is a skill that I learned from Mom. Nothing beats her fruitcakes. No citron, tons of cherries, pineapple, apricots, dates, and nuts held together with a trace amount of cake batter and soaked in good brandy and aged for 2-3 months. So rich you only need the thinest of slices to satisfy your sweet tooth.

[Ghost Dog]

53. Time to stick the knife in

and give it a good twist. Agreed.

Have a good weekend, folks. Looks like I'll be working flat out (cement, stone, ceramics, woodwork), before the breaking weather gets in through the gap in the wall we've just opened in this house.

:smoke:

[AnneD]

54. Sounds like you'll be a busy boy.....

remember to keep your powder dry.;)

[Demeter]

60. Sigh. And I Was Going to Clean My House

Well, I'll crank up the thread, instead.

[TrogL]

44. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-07-11 Friday, July 11 0.990786 USD
2008-07-14 Monday, July 14 0.994036 USD
2008-07-15 Tuesday, July 15 0.998502 USD
2008-07-16 Wednesday, July 16 0.998004 USD
2008-07-17 Thursday, July 17 0.998203 USD
2008-07-18 Friday, July 18 0.994728 USD
2008-07-21 Monday, July 21 0.998104 USD
2008-07-22 Tuesday, July 22 0.991768 USD
2008-07-23 Wednesday, July 23 0.991277 USD
2008-07-24 Thursday, July 24 0.988728 USD
2008-07-25 Friday, July 25 0.983574 USD
2008-07-28 Monday, July 28 0.978474 USD
2008-07-29 Tuesday, July 29 0.974659 USD
2008-07-30 Wednesday, July 30 0.976562 USD
2008-07-31 Thursday, July 31 0.974564 USD
2008-08-01 Friday, August 1 0.975515 USD
2008-08-04 Monday, August 4 0.965717 USD
2008-08-05 Tuesday, August 5 0.959233 USD
2008-08-06 Wednesday, August 6 0.95511 USD
2008-08-07 Thursday, August 7 0.951475 USD
2008-08-08 Friday, August 8 0.936593 USD
2008-08-11 Monday, August 11 0.936944 USD
2008-08-12 Tuesday, August 12 0.939761 USD
2008-08-13 Wednesday, August 13 0.938262 USD
2008-08-14 Thursday, August 14 0.941531 USD
2008-08-15 Friday, August 15 0.942596 USD
2008-08-18 Monday, August 18 0.943129 USD
2008-08-19 Tuesday, August 19 0.942863 USD
2008-08-20 Wednesday, August 20 0.940999 USD
2008-08-21 Thursday, August 21 0.956572 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9544 0.9565 0.9544 0.9556 -0.0012 -0.13% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9551 0.9558 0.9551 0.9556 -0.0005 -0.05% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9545 0.9545 0.9545 0.9545 -0.0009 -0.09%
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9519 0.9519 0.9519 0.9556 +0.0151 +1.58% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.9563 +0.0151 +1.58% 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9540 0.9540 0.9540 0.9566 +0.0151 +1.58% 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.9845 0.9845 0.9845 0.9569 +0.0151 +1.58% 


 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9166 0.9166 0.9166 0.9166 -0.0067 -0.73%   
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 0.79815 0.79815 0.79690 0.79770 +0.00350 +0.44%   
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 161.660 162.530 161.660 162.120 +0.985 +0.61%    
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.U08.E Sep 2008 (E) 1.48040 1.48160 1.47670 1.47730 -0.00855 -0.58%    

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.37. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, broken support marked by April's low crossing at 96.74 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 95.97. Second resistance is broken support marked by April's low crossing at 96.74. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.37. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.35.


Analysis

:wtf: I looked at the numbers yesterday and they were around US$1.06. It's gained about 2 cents in the last 24 hours. The other numbers are a complete tangle. What's going on?

[UpInArms]

57. Alcoa: Layoffs at Rockdale smelter to begin Aug. 31 (400 jobs affected)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/alcoa-layoffs-rockdale-smelter-begin/story.aspx?guid=%7BC5FE5A07%2DDDA3%2D4EB2%2D8E3C%2D4FCE0E4BD7F1%7D&dist=msr_6

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Alcoa Inc. (AA: 32.17, +0.03, +0.1%) said Friday it will begin laying off employees at its partially idled Rockdale, Texas aluminum smelter on Aug. 31. The aluminum giant said about 300 employees as well as 100 contract employees will be affected. About 100 employees will be alerted by Aug. 31, with another 60 alerted by Sept. 7, and the remaining 140 notified in the fourth quarter. The Rockdale plant partially shut down in June because of onsite power supply issues, consequently exposing the plant to high power prices.

[UpInArms]

58. Embarq to cut 500-700 jobs, 300 contract positions: report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/embarq-cut-500-700-jobs-300/story.aspx?guid=%7B1887AE28%2D928B%2D4666%2DBA77%2DD5A9F02CCA61%7D&dist=morenews

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Embarq Corp. (EQ: 48.15, +0.39, +0.8%) will cut 500 to 700 jobs and eliminate about 300 contract positions by the fourth quarter, The Associated Press reported Friday. The cuts will focus on the company's Network Services organization in an attempt to bring down costs, according to the news service.

what is Embarq?

Embarq Corp
5454 W. 110th Street
Overland Park KS 66211
http://www.embarq.com
Download Annual Report
Phone: [phone]
Fax: n/a

Company at a GlanceIndustry: Fixed Line Telecommunications

[AnneD]

61. Airline industry on track to set new lobbying record

The U.S. airline industry appears to be on track to set a new record for money spent lobbying elected officials, according to the latest government records.

The airlines paid a record $25 million last year to fight customer rights legislation and support efforts to modernize the air traffic control system through the Air Transport Association and other groups. But recent lobbying report disclosures suggest the airline industry will surpass that number if spending continues at its current pace.

You can find a complete list of airlines — and which lawmakers they gave money to — on this Senate Web site. For details on how the money was spent, check out OpenSecrets.org.

The largest single contributor is Delta Air Lines, which is pushing to have its merger with Northwest Airlines approved. It spent $3.5 million in 2008, according to documents filed with the government. Combined, the two airlines have spent more than $6 million — almost twice as much as the Air Transport Association.

more....

http://www.tripso.com/today/airline-industry-on-track-to-set-new-lobbying-record/

the article mentions a fav research website of mine...open secrets.

[AnneD]

62. Airlines' fees for surfboards are dinging surfers

Swelling airline fees are wiping out traveling surfers' hopes of catching the next big wave.

Some airlines are now charging surfers as much as $300 to take along a surfboard. That's significantly higher than the $15 fee that big carriers began charging for the first checked bag, a move that has riled passengers.


The fee, among the highest of airline charges, is grounding some surfers and has created an unusual uproar among an otherwise mellow surf community. Fees for bicycles, skis and other sports equipment have also been rising, but not as much as surfboard.

Surfers note that most airlines don't charge for golf bags, while surfers are paying as much as $300 a board for international flights. That's nearly as much as a new board can cost. Avid surfers take as many as four boards in a bag, which can mean a $1,200 bill, or $2,400 for a round trip.

more...

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-surfboardfees22-2008aug22,0,2223741.story?track=rss

Those airline dudes are getting all aggro on us. Guess there is no such thing as an endless summer.... Bummer

[AnneD]

63. How Safe Is Your Brokerage Account?

The demise of Bear Stearns, rumors about insolvency at Lehman Brothers and headlines about big losses at E*Trade Financial have prompted calls from subscribers about the safety of investment assets and what might happen if their brokers fail.

So as we patiently wait for our key indicators to signal a new buying opportunity, let's address some concerns and questions about how to ensure your assets stay safe and sound at your custodial firm.

The first line of defense comes from a myriad of regulatory laws and standards that have been developed over the years in response to past financial problems. Broker-dealers come under strict requirements and constant scrutiny from a number of regulatory bodies, including the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) at the national level, as well as state regulators.


more....

http://www.forbes.com/2008/08/21/bearstearns-lehman-compliance-pf-ii-in_js_0821soapbox_inl.html?feed=rss_news

Just something to nibble on for the weekend. Any large pizza orders yet? Or Maalox?

[Karenina]

64. Here, have a Fisherman's Friend. Anis,

:pals:

[Hugin]

67. The Weekend Economist--August 22-24, 2008 is open over in E&O.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=378299&mesg_id=378299

[UpInArms]

68. kicking it through the goal post for the weekend

Dow 11,628.06 197.85 (1.73%)
Nasdaq 2,414.71 34.33 (1.44%)
S&P 500 1,292.20 14.48 (1.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.867% 0.029

NYSE Volume 3,783,288,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,397,444,000

4:25 pm : Stocks finished the week on a strong note, but the lack of volume suggested there was little conviction behind the buying. Moreover, despite the strong finish, the major indices concluded the week with a loss.

The session's tone was upbeat from the start, following a report from Reuters that Korea Development Bank may be interested in acquiring Lehman Brothers (LEH 14.41, +0.69). That encouraged traders to enter the investment banking industry (+3.4%), which has been hit during recent sessions as various analysts have cut their earnings estimates.

Interest in the financial sector waned, though, when Moody's Investors Service downgraded the ratings on preferred shares of Fannie Mae (FNM 5.00, +0.15) and Freddie Mac (FRE 2.81, -0.35) to Baa3 from A1. Since those shares are held by many other financial institutions there is concern that a government-led bailout of the pair would result in major write-downs elsewhere.

Famed investor Warren Buffett stated in a CNBC interview that Fannie and Freddie are looking for private investment. Buffett also offered positive comments on the attractive values currently offered by stocks and said that he doesn't have any bets against the dollar, which climbed 0.8% after slipping in the previous session. Fed Chairman Bernanke stated in a separate speech that the trends in the dollar are likely to slow inflation.

Those comments helped participants look past the troubles of Fannie and Freddie, as well as word from Reuters that hedge fund Ore Hill is limiting redemptions. Financials posted the largest gain of any economic sector, climbing 3.1%.

Traders were also encouraged oil prices rolled over in the face of a strengthening dollar, profit-taking, and news shipments are flowing again through a previously closed Turkish pipeline. Crude climbed more than 5% yesterday, but reversed the advance to finish below $115 per barrel. Crude remains nearly 20% higher year-to-date.

The drop in oil prices fueled buying in airline stocks and oil sensitive areas like consumer discretionary stocks. The Amex Airline Index finished 8.2% higher and the consumer discretionary sector finished up 2.2%.

Gap (GPS 19.88, +0.87) also played a supporting role in the consumer discretionary sector. It announced better-than-expected earnings per share results and offered in-line guidance.

Although the session's gains were pleasing, there is actually less to them than meets the eye when taking into account the light volume that has accompanied the move. Total volume didn't even break 900,000 on the NYSE.

Each of the major indices closed the session with a gain in excess of 1%. For the week, though, the Dow closed 0.3% lower, the Nasdaq shed 1.5%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.5%.DJ30 +197.85 NASDAQ +34.33 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +1.7% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +14.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1983/1.38 bln/797 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2237/889 mln/874

3:30 pm : Stocks are holding strong gains while heading into the final leg of trading. However, at their current level stocks are facing a 0.7% decline for the week, as measured by the S&P 500.

The financial sector (+2.4%) and the tech sector (+1.4%) are combining to provide leadership. Their combined weight in the S&P 500 is more than double that of energy (-2.0%). Energy remains the primary laggard, as each of its industries components are showing losses.DJ30 +173.92 NASDAQ +30.51 SP500 +11.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1868/1.11 bln/897 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2134/645 mln/960

[InkAddict]

69. Another Bank Failure Just Reported

Thanx to Better Believe It:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3838879#3841018

US regulators shut Columbian Bank in Kansas