STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 3 February (#1)

[ozymandius]

Tuesday February 3, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 356
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 53 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 105 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 317
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 801
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 2, 2004

Dow... 10,499.18 +11.11 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,063.15 -3.00 (-0.15%)
S&P 500... 1,135.26 +4.13 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.15% +0.01 (+0.31%)
Gold future... 399.30 -3.80 (-0.94%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Jim Puplava

Storm Clouds, Crises and Opportunities in Energy

Nothing surprises the markets more than when the unexpected occurs. Surprise earnings, missed estimates, a sudden downturn or upturn in the economy or a geopolitical rogue wave such as the events of 9-11 can turn the markets around rather suddenly. Markets thrive on certainly and come unglued when events change or when the unexpected arrives. Economists, analysts, and investors prefer linear trends that move and act predictably. As long as things go as planned, the markets react well. When they don’t, the markets can turn and react viciously.

<cut>

Still Wrong After Three Years

This is most evident in the field of energy where the fortunetellers have been forecasting lower energy prices for the last three years. As long as I can remember Wall Street analysts have been constantly predicting lower energy prices: lower oil and lower natural gas prices. This year is no different. The Street is still predicting $20-$24 oil. As of today, the price of crude oil is not at $20, but $34.74 a barrel. Natural gas is selling at $5.55 a cubic foot and not $3 a foot contrary to renewed forecasts for lower prices.

<cut>

Underowned, Unloved and Misunderstood

Part of the reason for today’s misperceptions of both energy prices and energy stocks is the preponderance of rumors and myths that dominate the energy markets. One of the most persistence myths in the energy markets is that there is plenty of oil and natural gas around. This year’s higher injection of natural gas prior to the winter heating season is one example of the myopic optimism that still pervades the energy sector. The conventional wisdom seems to be that as long as there is 3,000 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas in storage prior to winter, things will be okay and any price spikes will only be temporary. However, having a large natural gas supply in storage is dependent on the vagaries of weather. In a prescient series of articles titled “Puncturing natural Gas Myths,” energy expert Andrew Weissman points out that this year's higher-than-expected injections into underground storage had more to do with mild summer temperatures than it did large scale industrial demand destruction. To quote Weissman, “ …all of the larger-than-expected injections into storage that occurred this summer can be explained based upon decreases in the amount of natural gas used to generate electricity compared to the same months last year, not fuel switching by industrial users or other industrial demand destruction as so many analysts contend.”<1>

<cut>

The Vicious Cycle Mounts

The energy crisis has already impacted several segments of the U.S. economy most notably the petrochemical and plastic industries. Higher fuel prices have forced companies within these industries to move offshore, shut down plants or to switch to other fuels. While this has helped to reduce industrial demand it has been more than made up for by residential consumption. Residential use of natural gas has increased due to an increase in residential construction as a result of the housing bubble and our digital society which consumes even greater amounts of electricity each year.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[whatelseisnew]

2. Link to "Puncturing Natural Gas Myths"

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/author.cfm?at_id=114


Puncturing Natural Gas Myths -- Part III
Topic: Natural Gas Supply, Demand and Pricing
Article Viewed 5062 Times; 6 comments
Once the real causes of this summer's higher-than-expected injections are better understood, it should be readily apparent that prices this summer could easily have soared far above the $ 6.00/MMBTU level reached early in June.
 
11.24.03 Puncturing Natural Gas Myths -- Part II
Topic: Natural Gas Supply, Demand and Pricing
Article Viewed 6646 Times; 5 comments
No myth has been repeated as persistently - or has as little foundation in fact - as the near-universal belief that the much higher-than-expected injections into underground storage that began in late May of this year are attributable to large scale industrial "demand destruction" that purportedly began this Spring and Summer in response to the run-up in natural gas prices that occurred at about the same time.
 
11.21.03 Puncturing Natural Gas Myths -- Part I
Topic: Natural Gas Supply, Demand and Pricing
Article Viewed 9239 Times; 11 comments
Does the U.S. still face a severe natural gas supply crisis during the remainder of this decade? If there is any remaining doubt regarding this issue, it should be thoroughly dispelled by the National Petroleum Council's recent Report to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham.

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.68 Change -0.85 (-0.97%)

related articles

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6959-2004Feb2.html

In Europe, Leaders' Concern Rises as Dollar Falls

Calls are mounting from abroad for efforts to stem the fall in the U.S. dollar, especially against the euro. But U.S. officials are showing no sign of budging from their stance that the dollar's value should be left to the markets.




The disparity in view between Washington and its allies looms as a potential flash point at a meeting this weekend in Boca Raton, Fla., of top economic policymakers from the Group of Seven major industrial nations. European officials are particularly aggrieved because the dollar has fallen most against the euro, the 12- nation European common currency, while Asian countries are deliberately holding their currencies steadier. The strong euro means that European goods are getting more expensive -- and thus less competitive -- on world markets, compared with goods made elsewhere.

The flip side of the strong euro is the weak dollar, which is helping to stoke the U.S. recovery by boosting American exports. Despite fears that the dollar might go into free-fall, triggering a massive sell-off of U.S. bonds and stocks, nothing of the sort has happened so far, and Bush administration officials have signaled that they aren't worried much. At a briefing yesterday for reporters, John B. Taylor, the Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, declined to comment on appeals to limit volatility in the foreign exchange market.

<snip>

The big question at the G-7 meeting will be whether the European finance ministers can persuade the others to change the wording of the communique from the one that was issued the last time the group met in September in Dubai. That statement included the clause that "more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries or economic areas."

Although seemingly innocuous, the phrasing was interpreted by some in the markets as giving a green light for traders to drive the dollar down, at least against the euro, without fear of government intervention to halt such a move. At the same time, it was viewed as subtly prodding Asia's export powerhouses, China and Japan, to stop holding down the value of their currencies. The Chinese yuan is fixed against the dollar, and Japan has been buying dollars furiously to keep the yen from rising too fast against it, lest that nation's own recovery falter.

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/02/03/rtr1238927.html

Dollar looks vulnerable, no help expected from G7

Traders were eager for any clues on the thinking of G7 nations.

<snip>

But the United States sent another signal on Monday that it was not keen on taking any steps.

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said that the G7 meeting would focus on measures to boost global growth, adding that currencies would be discussed "as always".

"Just as Taylor indicated yesterday, the U.S. doesn't want much discussion about currencies," said Kikuko Takeda, market economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "They are happy with what's happening now."

<snip>

Traders said the absence of a G7 warning against the dollar's decline could be taken as a green light to sell the currency.

They added that a fall in the dollar beyond 105 yen could trigger an even sharper decline given the huge amount of option positions lined up around that level.

"There are many option triggers below 105 yen because people thought in the past that that level would be protected," said Kota Kimura, assistant manager at Shinkin Central Bank.

"So a break through that level could cause a sharp fall in the dollar.

...more...

Well....

Looks like some very interesting times (who was it that first said "May you live in interesting times"?

That the Washington Post put a dollar article on the front page of their Business Section was interesting - but their cheerleading for the weak dollar was rather disgusting.

The G7 meeting is February 6-7 - just a couple days away. If there are no statements regarding the stabilization of the dollar, all I can say is "Hang on to your hats, folks. It's going to be a wild ride."

Have a great day, Marketeers!!!

[54anickel]

9. Vietnam Economy seems to think the dollar and interest are going up

and gold to continue to go down.

http://www.vneconomy.com.vn/en_index.php?action=preview&cat=01&id=040202150528

snip>
The US ministry of finance expected appreciation of dollar and increase UD dollar interest rate again…Despite the US deficit of trade balance and budget, as well as its high unemployment, tendency of US dollar price increase is clear in the long run.

When price of dollar is increased, price of gold will go down (currently at below US$400 per ounce).

Situation will lead to tendency making the investors to sell out gold for dollars. Further more, gold producers have increased gold output, increasing gold supply for market. These will make price of gold decreasing on the world market.
<endsnip


Here's a bit more from New Zealand on the G7. Could it be that the US is loosing it's grip of control on the IMF, or is it all just talk and hot air. Also get a hint of talking up the stability of the Euro and talking down the weak little greenback.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/latestnewsstory.cfm?storyID=3547107&thesection=business&thesubsection=latest

snip>
Echoing European governments' concerns that the dollar's fall against the euro alone could become excessive, he indicated that other exchange rates needed to absorb the fallout from rising US deficits with the rest of the world.

"In my opinion, what is needed now first and foremost is a credible global cooperative strategy that avoids a disproportionate burden being borne by any of the major currency areas," the IMF Managing Director told a conference in Prague.

snip>

Koehler's reference also carries resonance given that the IMF has been remarkably close to G7 thinking on currency issues in recent years. The last joint G7 currency market intervention, to buy euros in September 2000 just after the single currency hit lifetime lows below 85 cents, was flagged in advance by the then IMF Chief Economist Michael Mussa who said earlier that week: "If not now, when?".

The IMF chief said there were other commitments needed from all. The US needs to tackle its deficits and low savings rate; Europe and Japan needed to accelerate reforms to boost economic growth rates; the rest of Asia must allow more flexible currency rates; and all should renew commitments to the Doha trade round.

snip>

Despite his comments on burden sharing, Koehler said the euro rise was not yet a cause for great concern. "I also believe that we must avoid overreacting at this juncture," he said. "The euro is roughly back where it was in 1998. Its recent appreciation after a prolonged period of excessive weakness should also be viewed as a welcome sign of the increasing confidence in the common currency."

However, French Finance Minister Francis Mer said on Saturday the dollar was particularly weak compared with its levels a year or two ago.

[54anickel]

16. WTF, Taylor and Snow are disgusting.

You know what I think "strong dollar" means? We've got the world by the short hairs as there's not a damn thing you can do about it without hurting yourselves - so suck it up.

"Taylor declined again to comment but praised the Japanese central bank for rapidly expanding the nation's money supply in an effort to boost economic growth."

Those options sitting at 105 on the yen are sort of ominous. Feel as though there is a gun pointing at my head.

JMHO

[KoKo]

21. Yes, let the world cover our butts for the rising US deficits (& Debt) ...

Quote from your snip. They are really spelling it out here. "by the shorthairs" just about says it. :-(


Echoing European governments' concerns that the dollar's fall against the euro alone could become
excessive, he indicated that other exchange rates needed to absorb the fallout from rising US deficits with
the rest of the world.

"In my opinion, what is needed now first and foremost is a credible global cooperative strategy that avoids
a disproportionate burden being borne by any of the major currency areas," the IMF Managing Director told
a conference in Prague.

[shooga]

31. Foreign Investor Dump

"... the decline of the dollar against the Euro is a precarious situation right now ... foreign investors could heavily dump U.S. Treasury Bonds which would further drop the dollar and raise the U.S. debt ..."

[JeebusH]

17. Robert Kennedy first said "May you live in interesting times" ....

he was (mis)quoting an old Chinese proverb

While I said (mis)quoted, Kennedy compacted the saying a bit and his version sounded better

[truthseeker1]

22. Wasn't that Bobby Kennedy?

Looks like some very interesting times (who was it that first said "May you live in interesting times"?)

[UpInArms]

25. Thanks JeebusH and truthseeker1

I somehow thought it was a curse issued by an old sage :)

[Maeve]

4. A good Tuesday, Marketeers!

Just popped in to say I'm sorry, but I don't have the time to contribute to the Thread right now and have to bow out.

You all keep up the fine work--you are appreciated by many who don't chime in!
:loveya::donut::donut::loveya::donut::donut::loveya:

[UpInArms]

5. We'll miss you Maeve!

Come back soon!

[54anickel]

8. No-o-o-o-o-o-o!

Will miss you Maeve! Hope you come back real soon.

:cry: :hug:

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Marketeers!

As yesterday's market activity was a snoozer - today's doesn't promise much better. 4Q Earnings reports are flowing out the pipe. This brings us to the news story consensus says that observers are chewing the results very, very slowly.

I can only wonder what this means for the trading day.

[JNelson6563]

7. Top o' the mornin' to ya!

Howdy Ozy and all--

Looks like the day may be as dull as you say. Sorry to see Maeve out for a time, I too have little time these days. I expect to still check in at least once a day tho'. Will sure miss you Maeve.

It seems my work of over-throwing the government has mushroomed into something bigger than it's been and I want you to keep an eye on Michigan over the next few years. I predict lots of positve change. ;-)

Julie

[ozymandius]

10. Good for you! Sorry to hear the news about Maeve taking leave.

I look forward to hearing the positive news about Michigan. Maybe my family can move up to yonder parts. It would make more sense to be among friends since Georgia is becoming so damned regressive in its themes and politics. We already have friends in Ann Arbor BTW.

I will also be around less in the next few days too. A mixture of job-searching and boy-tending is keeping me busy away from the message boards.

[Coventina]

11. The "I Ching" on today's market

Okay, the title of my post is a little misleading. Today's reading seems to be more about today's primary than the market. Maybe, although the market was my formal, written question, Ching picked up on the fact that I was thinking about how I am leaving to go vote in today's primary.

Anyway, today's reading is COLLECTIVE FORCE changing to PROSPERING. I see this as a very good future portent. Here are the changing lines from COLLECTIVE FORCE: "Before you take action, be sure that you are organized. Without order, your affairs will end in chaos and misfortune. Discipline is key here. (And the other one) There is an absence of vision and leadership. Whether it is a matter of divergent goals or whether the leader is simply inept (sound familiar?), the result is the same: misfortune."

HA HA!

And now for a quote from PROSPERING: "Many things will become possible as the wisest leaders move with ease into ruling positions. Such people are so magnanimous and progressive that even the most evil elements change for the better. Business situations will experience a most direct benefit from this fortunate time."

Can Ching be any more clear? It looks like something good is going to happen. Something big and lovely!!

Well, I have to run off to go vote now! I won't say who I am planning to vote for, because I don't want to cause any hard feelings. I actually like ALL the candidates (well, not to fond of Lieberman) and I would vote for ANY of them against Bush!!!!!

Have a blessed day all! Smooches!
:loveya:

[54anickel]

13. BE-A-U-tiful. That's the best I Ching I have seen! Ya-Hoo! n/t

[ozymandius]

14. key to "discipline"

The psychology of the markets says that a Ricin scare would make the numbers tremble. However, I do not see how a weaponized toxin found in Senate offices equates to Colgate selling less toothpaste or Exxon-Mobil selling less gasoline. Maybe I am immune to the hysteria but the market psychology at play here is predictable but baffling. So, I would exercise discipline as a long investor. Shorts love this kind of news as it gives them an inventive reason to speculate, irrationally, not on profits but the direction this news will drive the lemming traders.

[JNelson6563]

18. very nice

Glad you stopped in to share this with us. Hope it's all good in your world dear.

Julie

[Coventina]

30. Thanks!

Things are okay right now.
Just keeping my fingers crossed 'til I hear back about grad school.
Waiting for that acceptance/rejection letter.....

I want to get back to more regular readings, but my mornings just seem to get away from me most of the time!
:spank:

[ozymandius]

12. 9:45 check-in. Somebody hit the markets with an ugly stick.

Dow 10,466.74 -32.44 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,059.37 -3.78 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,133.05 -2.21 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.114% -0.037

[ozymandius]

15. checking out for awhile

The fog has just burned away and my son and I are rarin' to get outside. Lots of calls to make, too, in hunt of a job.

I'll try to check in after a couple of hours. As always - Have a wonderful day Marketeers! :hi:

Ozy

[JNelson6563]

19. bumpy road thus far...

10:37 and you are here:


Dow 10,474.96 -24.22 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,060.24 -2.91 (-0.14%)
S&P 500 1,132.56 -2.70 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.121% -0.030


A wee bit of flight to quality goin' on it looks like.

Julie

[Hotler]

20. Nice thread

A good read, thanks.

[UpInArms]

24. welcome to DU Hotler!

Glad to have you :hi:

Drop in anytime and join the fun :party:

[kitkatrose]

23. Looks better At 12:20PM

Dow 10,513.33 +14.15 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,066.59 +3.44 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,135.92 +0.66 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.118% -0.033

26. Job Cuts Top 100,000 in January

(Who is going to pay for all the things consumers buy on credit?)

Reuters
Job Cuts Top 100,000 in January - Report
Tuesday February 3, 12:50 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Planned job cuts in January were 26 percent higher than in December as U.S. jobs moved to countries like India, China and the Philippines, and as mergers made some jobs redundant, according to a report on Tuesday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040203/economy_layoffs_challenger_1.html

"In the credit bubble years..."

[UpInArms]

27. auto sales reports

due today -

here's the Ford report:

Ford's January U.S. Sales Fell 5.2% on Lower Car Sales

Tuesday, Febuary 3, 2004 12:53 PM ET

DEARBORN, Mich. -- Ford Motor Co. (F, news) reported a 5.2% decline in total U.S. vehicle sales for January, dragged down by a double-digit decline in car sales. Sales of the F-series trucks, however, reached record levels.

<snip>

Car sales fell 14% to 72,066, while truck sales edged lower, to 157,970 from 158,414.

...more...

GM and Chrysler to report later today.

[Frodo]

28. Where IS that report?

I remember last month only seeing the numbers from one or two manufacturers and never seeing the "full" number. Now I see a "prior" number for December, but I never got the report.

And now I can't find January's number either!

[UpInArms]

29. they never "released" the Dec number

on the Economic Calendar page - see

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200402.html

There seems to be a bit of this going on - the Treasury numbers for December were (in my view) inserted in later - if you look at this link http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200404.html

and then look at this link http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200403.html

but they were not there on the appropriate dates

I don't know if this is an oversight or if these omissions are intentional -

[54anickel]

33. I'm sure it's just an oversight UIA. ;-)

[54anickel]

34. Ouch. Friday should be interesting to watch.

[54anickel]

32. Wow, just got back in from errands. Sort of "weird" stuff going on

between currencies and gold. Strange trading day. :shrug:

[54anickel]

35. This guy here thinks the IMF is full of poop.

Nothing to worry about, see. The Wall Street Journal set the record straight.

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/7730489.htm
snip>
When the International Monetary Fund recently urged tax hikes to reduce the U.S. budget deficit and avert economic disaster, it was an amusing reminder of why the IMF should never be taken seriously.

The IMF warned that unless President Bush's tax cuts are repealed, rising interest rates will choke off economic growth. As often is the case, it fell to The Wall Street Journal editorial page to put things into their proper perspective. The warning, The Journal noted, echoed an eerily similar IMF admonition in March 1982.

It was eerie because the IMF alarms 22 years ago came shortly before the U.S. economy roared to life after more than a decade of stagflation. It has been cruising along in high gear ever since. The catalyst for the long economic boom was a series of marginal tax-rate reductions that encouraged more work and investment.

snip>
Despite this record of reality, the IMF continues to be guided by discredited economic theories. This is why the IMF long ago forfeited the right to be taken seriously. Unfortunately, many underdeveloped countries still must go hat in hand to the IMF when economic crisis occurs, and the cure is sometimes worse than the ailment.