"Inflation Skyrockets As Jobs Fall" -- latest economic release

I'm not making this up. The following is an analysis from business news today...

***

"What stands out is the leap in prices paid. Not very good news for the (Federal Reserve) as it shows an uptick in inflation. And you're not following through on growth and not following through on employment. It's not good news for bonds, not good news for equities," said David Durrant Bank Julius Baer chief currency strategist.

***

Also see my website for my correct prediction of this horrible situation.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=4263700

[gristy]

1. Hmmm, the comment on inflation is really brief. What was the number?

And is the number at all translateable to a retail inflation number?

2. Prices paid skyrocketed

Up over ten percent in one month...see my site

[Jacobin]

3. Poof. There it goes. Interest rates will now be boosted

Kids, can you say "stagflation"?

5. Exactly

First firm evidence of STAGFLATION!!!!

[Born Free]

17. "Poof. There it goes. Interest rates will now be boosted"

I doubt it, Greenspan will parrot the official line , nothing to worry about all is fine, bushonimics is working

[robcon]

18. What the hell does "prices paid skyrocketed" mean

How much? What items? When?

4. With this scenario -- STAGFLATION

Profit margins go AND jobs go!

[gristy]

6. Dan, help me understand this...

On your web site you have the quote "The supply managers' prices paid index jumped to 75.5 last month from 66." Yet you don't say where that came from. I don't see it in the article you link here. What does this number mean? Does it mean that prices for (something - what?) jumped by 9.5 "points" (a jump of 14.4% in one MONTH?). Can you help me find a graph of this number for each month over the past few years?

9. It is funny

They didn't put the ACTUAL number in the story I found. I had to dig the number out. Maybe because it was SO DAMN HIGH!

I see you found more news on this. Good.

[gristy]

7. Here's an interesting article that came out just before the report

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040202/RBELL02/TPBusiness/MoneyMarkets

Manufacturing index key

It's a heavy day for the release of economic data in the United States. "Market expectations for upcoming data represent high hurdles for the actual reports to jump," said BMO Nesbitt Burns.

The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing index could be a key for setting the market tone today. Economists are forecasting the index for January will increase to 64 from a revised 63.4 in December, according to Bloomberg News. That indicates robust industrial growth. The prices-paid component of the index is forecast to total 64.5 for January, down from 66 in December.

They expect it to come out at 64.5, and it comes in at 75.5??? :wtf:

8. That is very high

Saw it coming though see my Jan 06 analysis.

[robcon]

19. Where does it say the index came in at 75.5?

Huh?

This is blatantly in violation of the site's rules. The only purpose of the thread is to promote a poster's web site. The 75.5 number is made up, IMO.

[Ernesto]

10. A master of the obvious, you are

The table has been set for months & only now the chickens are coming home to their roosts. Small wonder the re-finance industry has been busy tightening it's belt (lay offs). All the "put it off" tricks have run their course.... Time for the inevitable "hang over".... Hopefully the chimp will take the fall for his wreckless spending.

[cliss]

11. Nice website, DS

I didn't have a chance to read all the way through, but I definitely agreed with what you wrote.

I have had my suspicions about government "figures" for quite a while now. I really don't trust them. I believe that ANY figure which is generated from some governmental agency, is suspect. They are just too optimistic, too upbeat and too dishonest for me.

If things are so great, why are so many of my friends unable to find jobs? Like my engineer friend who's now going on 2 years without a job. Why so many foreclosures?

It's all lies.

13. Well....

There is A LOT of research on the web site. Try out ALL the links. This game can be kinda complex...

To be honest, the thing with the cooked car price numbers and the GM/Ford racket is pretty strange. But clearly, in the table I found, it shows manipulation, considering earnings data points for GM, et. al...

...if you consider that the Bush tax cut would make the cycle involving SUVs botch the inflation number even more (since it allows SUVs to be written off, and thus makes a higher dollar volume as percent of GDP).

If the above doesn't make sense, let's just say--THEY ARE BEING REAAAALLLLLLLLLL clever in how they cook the inflation numbers. But now it is catching up with them!

HIGH inflation.

LOW jobs...

[robcon]

20. In other words, DanSpillane, you made it up

There was no 14% increase in anything last month. I've notified the moderators that this is just a pathetic attempt to promote your site.

[kskiska]

12. Time for another tax cut!

The Bush* cure-all.

14. Yet another corporate tax cut???

I fear at this point everything is so screwed up, it would bring the whole US down.

[Bozita]

15. THIS affects everybody in the USA -- Tell your friends.

Guess who's gonna get screwed.

Too many holes, too few fingers.

[radfringe]

16. "deficits don't matter..."

in the book Price of Loyalty - Cheney sneers "Reagan proved deficits don't matter..."

I beg to differ - during Reagan's administration deficits rose to new levels. At that point in time Americans were use to seeing budget deficits, it was something that went along with running the government, and with a :sigh: it was just viewed as part of the status quo and mostly ignored...not a hot button political issue nor an economic concern for the average voter

so at that point in time deficits didn't matter

but something happened between 1993-2000 - the budget was balanced, federal debt was reduced and we had surpluses. Additionally, we had great job and economic growth occuring.

people took notice -- gee this is great, jobs, balanced budget, federal debt reduced, and surpluses -- we can have a government that is fiscally sane

people have seen what a balanced budget and sound fiscal policies can do --- we can see the effects and differences between a government that balances the budget and one that puts everything on a credit card

deficits may not have mattered during the Reagan and Bush-1 years --- but they matter now

[lazarus]

21. locking

headline doesn't match article.