STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 7

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 7, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 167
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2755 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2480 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2771
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 6, 2008

Dow... 11,656.07 +40.30 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq... 2,378.37 +28.54 (+1.21%)
S&P 500... 1,289.19 +4.31 (+0.34%)
Gold future... 883.00 -3.10 (-0.35%)
30-Year Bond 4.69% +0.06 (+1.32%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% +0.04 (+1.02%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: The "Recessionistas" Fight Back

BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The credit crisis and stock market roller coaster ride over the last year and a half have introduced many new acronyms many have never heard of before (CDOs, CDS, CLOs, etc.) and brought out the wit of the financial industry. Both the bull and bear camps have been slugging it out as they defend their positions while coming up with fond names for each other. For example, the bulls have often used the term penned by speechwriter William Safire, “nattering nabobs of negativity” (NNN), while the bears (Barry Ritholtz) have countered with their own quip, “pervasive pollyannas of prosperity” (PPP).

One of the topics that have been center-stage this year is whether we are in a recession. Those beholden to the recession camp have been labeled “recessionistas,” a term coined by Larry Kudlow who is also a member of the PPP team. Members of the PPP team cited data from the non-manufacturing ISM composite index which rebounded in April above 50, indicating an expansion (Contra the Recessionistas), though it fell back below 50 in June. With the recent Q2 GDP report, the “recessionistas” have further support to their position as real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 1.89%, below the consensus expectations of 2.4% growth.

.....

The official definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative annualized growth. So far we have seen only one negative quarter of real GDP growth, which was the -0.172% rate seen in the fourth quarter of last year. However, and to the chagrin of the PPP team, using a more realistic inflation measure to deflate nominal GDP shows an official recession with an additional quarter to boot. Using either the headline CPI figure or the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator shows three consecutive quarters of negative annualized growth -- yes an official recession.

.....

Further support of economic weakness ahead is seen from the labor market, with non-farm payroll growth dipping into negative territory in July with a -0.049% growth rate, the first negative reading since July of 2001, right in the middle of the last recession. Like the 2% growth demarcation for RFSDP, over the last sixty years we have been in a recession every time the employment growth rate falls into negative territory, NO EXCEPTION.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

21. Reminds Me of Transistors

PNP vs NPN types.....the thing ws, transistors are designed to follow the information and amplify it-- not block it from flowing through!

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 08/02
Briefing.com 420K
Consensus 420K
Prior 448K

10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -1.0%
Prior -4.7%

15:00 Consumer Credit Jun
Briefing.com $7.0B
Consensus $6.4B
Prior $7.8B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

17. U.S. Pending Home Sales Probably Fell for Fourth Time This Year

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Fewer Americans signed contracts in June to purchase previously owned homes, raising the risk that falling demand will cause property values to slide further, economists said before a private report today.

The index of pending home resales fell 1 percent after a decline of 4.7 percent in May, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 37 economists. The drop would be the second consecutive and the fourth so far this year.

Prospective homebuyers are delaying purchases as the biggest slump in home sales in 26 years forces prices down. Stricter lending rules are also making it harder to obtain mortgage financing, indicating purchases will continue to decline.

.....

The pending resales report is considered a leading indicator because it tracks contract signings. Closings, which typically occur a month or two later, are tallied in a separate report from the Realtors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTb7.1aITZ8M&refer=us

[UpInArms]

103. Highest Home Supply Since '82 Seen Needing 50% Cut

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=avPV2OxmwF9w&refer=news

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey's largest homebuilder, cut the number of unsold houses by more than 50 percent over the past two years after lowering prices and still had 1,500 on its books as of April.

``We pretty much start a home these days when we have a contract from a buyer wanting to purchase one,'' Chief Financial Officer Larry Sorsby said in an interview from his office in Red Bank, New Jersey. The company's sales price in the northeast for homes under contract dropped 7.4 percent in April from a year earlier. ``We don't build them and hope they come,'' he said.

There are 3.9 million unsold existing single-family homes, the most since at least 1982, when the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors started compiling the data. The inventory of existing houses and condominiums must fall by almost 50 percent for prices to stabilize, said William Wheaton, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. There is an 11.1 month supply of existing unsold homes at the current sales pace, up from 4.6 months in September 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors data.

It now takes 10 weeks to 12 weeks on average to sell a house, compared with four weeks or five weeks at the height of the five- year housing boom, said Walter Molony, a spokesman for the Realtors group.

`Fifth Inning'

Homebuilders are facing record foreclosures, waning consumer confidence and stricter mortgage standards. Almost one of every 10 U.S. mortgages was in trouble during the first quarter, the highest in records dating to 1979, according to the Washington- based Mortgage Bankers Association. Delinquencies, or home loans with payments 30 days or more overdue, rose to 6.35 percent of outstanding mortgages and the share of homes in foreclosure rose to 2.47 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 7,000 to 455,000 - no revision to last week's number

01. U.S. 4-wk. avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 3.2 mln
8:31 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

02. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 31,000 to 3.3 million
8:31 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

03. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 26,750 to 419,500
8:31 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

04. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 7,000 to 455,000
8:31 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

eta:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims/story.aspx?guid=%7B4F28BA01%2D072D%2D4274%2D941B%2DA63AA3A40755%7D&dist=msr_9

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits remained unusually high in the latest week as more workers qualified for regular benefits under an unrelated extended federal benefits program, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Claims for the week ending Aug. 2 rose to 455,000, a gain of 7,000 from the 448,000 claims reported a week prior. The four-week average of new claims rose by 26,750 to 419,500, the highest since July 2003. Continuing unemployment claims rose by 31,000 to 3.3 million.

[wordpix]

94. what a nation of whiners! the economy is great! (sarcasm)

[UpInArms]

55. U.S. June pending home sales index rises 5.3%

02. U.S. June pending home sales index rises 5.3%
10:00 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

are they counting courthouse step foreclosure sales?

[Dr.Phool]

65. That's the only thing I can figure.

Around here, the same houses that have been for sale for the last year or so, are still for sale.

I just returned from the Myrtle Beach, SC area, and the real estate sales page that covers a 3 county area, was less than a half-page. In normal times it would have 3+ pages of sales.

[AnneD]

95. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. Unlike the unemployment rolls-an unsold house cannot be dropped unless it is sold or taken off the market by the owner. We are use to them playing fast and loose with the jobs numbers and it really shows. For example, in the really bad recession unemployment was up to 12-17% in some places. They are now a mild 5-6% in most places. I remember as a child hearing unemployment routinely 5-8% or more in a tough patch. The only way the GOV (both parties) nave been able to overcome the unemployment numbers is to jack with them...problem solved. No more problems like work hours being reduced, reemployment at 1/2 your previous wage, and being forced to take multiple jobs is a statistical boon.

But houses are different, if only because some one in the business sector is holding the bag for most of the loan life. They can tinker with the numbers so much and then reality rears it's head. It is either sold at auctions or left on the books. And even if it is left on the books, if I remember right-banks can only have it for so long on the books and only so much property can be on the books.
Which makes me wonder how long will it be before we start having a squatter movement in this country.

Many of these banks still have a 'dog in the manger' approach to housing and would rather kick out some one that with a little help could keep the house. They haven't realized that they will eventually take a steep loss on this when they sell it at a foreclose sale. They could have gotten more from the strapped home owner if they had worked with them. God forbid anyone exercise common sense in the business world.

So in the end, we will have these suburban ghost towns-a monument the the efficiency and virtue of capitalism, and soup kitchens for the homeless to demonstrate our compassion.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

110. Debtor Nation: U.S. June consumer credit up $14.3 billion, most in 7 months

06. U.S. June consumer credit up $14.3 billion, most in 7 months
3:00 PM ET, Aug 07, 2008

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises to near $120, halting slide

VIENNA, Austria - Concerns that tension over Iran's nuclear program could lead to conflict propelled oil prices upward Thursday to near $120 a barrel, halting a four-week slide.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose $1.21 to $119.79 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by noon in Europe. The contract dropped 59 cents overnight to settle at $118.58 a barrel.

.....

The U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude supplies rose 1.7 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 1, slightly more than the 1.2 million-barrel increase expected by analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts.

The EIA said inventories of distillate fuel, which include diesel and heating oil, jumped 2.8 million barrels. The analysts had expected an increase of 2.3 million barrels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

34. September crude up $2.77 to $121.36 a barrel on Globex

8:34 a.m.
September crude up $2.77 to $121.36 a barrel on Globex

[DemReadingDU]

4. National Century Columbus Ohio - Execs get 15 years, 12 years

2 National Century executives sentenced
Judge puts emphasis on money owed investors
Thursday, August 7, 2008 3:24 AM
By Jodi Andes
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

It's unlikely that the executives involved in the nation's largest case of private fraud will ever be able to come up with the more than $2.3 billion they've been ordered to repay.

But federal Judge Algenon L. Marbley wanted to make sure they were aware of the exact amount of the bill -- down to the penny -- while they sit in prison.

Yesterday, he ordered Donald H. Ayers and Randolph H. Speer, former executives for National Century Financial Enterprises, to repay investors $2,384,147,105.09.

"Thousands suffered considerable financial losses," the judge said. "Ayers, on the other hand, amassed a significant financial fortune."

Ayers, a founder of National Century, could spend the rest of his life behind bars. Marbley ordered the 72-year-old Ayers, the chief operations officer for National Century, to serve 15 years in federal prison.

"An eight-year sentence for Mr. Ayers, unless he lives longer than any of his family, would be a death sentence," his attorney Brian Dickerson said, arguing for a lighter term.

Speer, 57, the former chief financial officer for National Century, walked away with a 12-year sentence.

Both men got much less time than they faced: Ayers could have received 55 years in prison, Speer 125.

National Century was a Dublin-based business that touted itself as the nation's largest private handler of medical accounts-receivables. For a fee, the company collected the money owed on bills to doctors.

The company used investors' funds to give health-care providers the money up front.

But when the company went bankrupt in November 2002, investors lost $2.8 billion, and more than 275 health-care providers went out of business.

Ayers and Speer were convicted in March of such charges as securities fraud and money laundering.

They are the first of five defendants scheduled for sentencing this week in the National Century case.

Soon, prosecutors are expected to file paperwork detailing exactly what can be seized to attempt to make repayments on the amount owed to investors. Houses, cars and retirement and savings accounts of those convicted could be considered.

During yesterday's hearing, attorneys for Ayers and Speer argued for leniency, saying the men didn't know all that was going on at National Century.

But Assistant U.S. Attorney Doug Squires pointed out that Speer was the company's chief financial officer.

"He was in charge of money in and money out," Squires said. "Just to have him say now, 'I was just following orders' or that 'I'm a rubber stamp' is disingenuous."

Marbley agreed, calling Ayers one of the architects of the fraud, and saying Speer was a "battlefield commander" or "enabler" who authorized 400 transfers in unsecured loans to health-care providers.

Defense attorneys say they will appeal the case, using recent Securities and Exchange Commission rulings that show banks and auditors knew about lies to investors and unauthorized money transfers.

Roger S. Faulkenberry and James E. Dierker Jr., also convicted on fraud-related charges in the National Century case, are expected to be sentenced today.

On Friday, former CEO Lance K. Poulsen, convicted of obstructing justice, is to be sentenced. He still must stand trial on fraud charges in October.

Karl A. Demmler, convicted of obstructing justice, is to be sentenced at a later date.

A seventh co-defendant, Rebecca S. Parrett, also a former executive of the company, disappeared after she was convicted and remains at large.

Prosecutors are itemizing what can be seized to try to repay the $2.3 billion owed to investors.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/08/07/Ayers_Speer.ART_ART_08-07-08_A1_OLAV6VB.html?sid=101


8/6/08
Government attorney Wes Porter countered that Ayers’ crimes were “as serious as they get in a white-collar crime case.”

“Fraud is fraud,” he said. “I think that’s something the corporate world, and particularly those who hide under the cover of a private company, need to be aware of.”

more...
http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/08/04/daily21.html?t=printable


link backwards to previous articles...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3425931&mesg_id=3425952

[ozymandius]

6. Well, I am disappointed.

Your average blue collar thug would receive much more time than these garden variety white collar hoodlums.

[DemReadingDU]

12. That may be true, but they have to repay the billions they stole

and there are still several others to be sentenced this week.

Fifteen years is a long time, probably will die in prison.

[ozymandius]

15. Any chance of parole?

For non-violent types, a chance at parole can significantly shorten a prison sentence.

I agree though - fifteen years is a long time for a 70-something to start serving a prison sentence. He will probably leave prison toes-up under any circumstance. Plus the judge was sage in ordering all stolen funds to be repaid. I wonder if forensic accountants will trace the route and destination of any money to offshore accounts.

[DemReadingDU]

19. Haven't seen or read anything about parole

It would be interesting to trace the route and destination of money to offshore accounts, assuming that's where it went. Maybe other fraud accounts would be found there too.

[Dr.Phool]

28. I think parole is pretty much gone at the federal level.

However they could reduce their sentences for good behavior (around 5 days per month served for keeping out of trouble) and more for participating in other programs. One major key would be restitution.

[Demeter]

22. At 72, Ayers Won't Last 12 Years

I think Speers could have been given more years, though.

[ozymandius]

5. Insurer AIG posts large loss on bad mortgage bets

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc (AIG.N) posted its third consecutive quarterly net loss of more than $5 billion on Wednesday as it wrote down bad mortgage-related investments, sending its shares down almost 8 percent.

The world's largest insurer and one of the hardest hit in the credit crisis also reported a general deterioration in its mainstream insurance businesses, which were hurt in particular by a decline in investment income and losses from its mortgage insurer, United Guaranty Corp.

.....

BATHED IN RED

AIG said its second-quarter net loss was $5.36 billion, or a loss of $2.06 a share, compared with net income of $4.28 billion, or $1.64 a share, a year ago. It had an adjusted net loss of 51 cents a share. Analysts, on average, had forecast a profit of 46 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

It was the second-largest loss in AIG's 89-year history, surpassed only by the $7.7 billion net loss it recorded in the first quarter of 2008. AIG has posted net losses exceeding $18 billion over the past three quarters.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080807/bs_nm/aig_results_dc

[UpInArms]

61. AIG on track for largest one-day decline ever

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/aig-track-largest-one-day-decline/story.aspx?guid=%7B27510468%2D72C9%2D47E8%2DA003%2D974A78ADF5FC%7D&dist=msr_1

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of American International Group Inc. (AIG: 24.07, -5.02, -17.3%) were on track for their biggest one-day pullback ever on Thursday after the insurance giant posted a larger-than-expected quarterly loss and investors worried it may need to raise additional capital. AIG shares were down more than 17% to $24.12 in recent trading. Previously, the largest session decline for AIG in percentage terms was during the 1987 market crash, when the stock lost 15.8% on October 19, according to FactSet.

[UpInArms]

64. AIG sees up to $8.5 billion in cash losses from CDS

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0727764720080807

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Thursday potential cash losses on its portfolio of credit default swaps tied to risky mortgage debt could be as high as $8.5 billion, much more than previously disclosed.

Under two revised ways of assessing risk, losses were estimated at $5 billion to $8.5 billion, finance executive Steven Bensinger said.

The estimates are much higher than the $2.4 billion worst-case scenario disclosed by AIG, the world's largest insurance company, in the first quarter.

<snip>

On Wednesday the company disclosed its third consecutive quarterly loss greater than $5 billion. It has recorded nearly $25 billion in unrealized losses from writing down the value of its CDS portfolio, held by a financial products unit.

...more...

[Demeter]

90. And These Were The Smartest Guys In the Room?

How America has fallen.

[Ghost Dog]

7. GLOBAL MARKETZ-Asia stocks fall on deepening growth fears

* AIG results weigh on financial sector

* Oil below $119, down around $30 from record high

* G7 recession becomes real possibility (Repeats to more subscribers with no change to text)

By Kevin Plumberg

HONG KONG, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell on Thursday, as a sustained decline in oil prices could not shake a sense of gloom among investors about financial sector instability and the worsening global growth outlook.

...

Concerns about wavering demand in China, whose economy has devoured natural resources for the last decade and pushed up commodity prices, also weighed on copper prices.

Lower oil prices could be interpreted as relief for U.S. consumers, on whom Asia depends for export demand. But inflation was still a global threat, bad loans continued to dog banks and insurers, and investors faced the prospect that all of the Group of Seven rich nations could slip into recession.

As a result, optimism was in short supply.

"Certainly the environment is one that should be positive, with the weaker yen and lower oil prices," said Hideyuki Ishiguro, supervisor at the investment strategy department at Okasan Securities in Tokyo. "But the idea that Japan's economy isn't good is spreading."

Japan's Nikkei share average .N225 fell about 1 percent, led by an 11 percent drop in shares of air-conditioner maker Daikin Industries Ltd (6367.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) after the company cut its earnings outlook because of sluggish sales in Europe.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL766756220080807?rpc=44&sp=true

[Ghost Dog]

8. Europe stocks rise as utilities, oils offset insurers

* FTSEurofirst 300 up 0.5 pct, reaching a 5-week high

* Insurers retreat after posting poor results

* EDF rises on France's planned electricity tariff hike

By Blaise Robinson

PARIS, Aug 7 (Reuters) - European stocks rose in early trade on Thursday to hit a 5-week high as rallying energy and utility stocks offset insurers hit by poor results, while investors braced for key interest rate decisions.

EDF (EDF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) gained 5.5 percent, boosted by planned increases in French electricity tariffs, while French water and waste management group Veolia Environnement (VIE.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) surged 9 percent after it raised its 2008 sales growth target.

At 0835 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.5 percent at 1,198.85 points, rising for the third consecutive session.

Financial markets were also bracing for interest rate decisions by both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, expected during the session. The ECB, at 1145 GMT, and the BoE, at 1100 GMT, are expected to keep rates steady and investors will watch any rhetoric from the banks to gauge how they are balancing growth and inflation concerns. Continued...

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL769924120080807?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

39. Fk. It's on my list. I should have invested in Veolia, like, yesterday.

(Gotta catch the bottom - not yet - you know).

http://uk.reuters.com/business/quotes/quote?symbol=VIE.PA

[Ghost Dog]

10. UPDATE 1-Mauritania junta pledges free polls

(Releads with pledge to hold elections)

By Vincent Fertey and Ibrahima Sylla

NOUAKCHOTT, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Leaders of a military coup in
Mauritania said they would hold "free and transparent"
presidential elections "in the shortest time possible",
according to a statement released on Thursday.

Presidential guard chief Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz set up an
11-strong council to rule the northwest African Islamic republic
on Wednesday after he ousted Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi,
Mauritania's first freely elected president.

The coup drew international condemnation and widespread
demands for Abdallahi's return to power, but many local
politicians threw their weight behind the coup and planned a
march on Thursday in support of the junta.

"The High State Council ... will supervise, in coordination
with the institutions, political class and civil society, the
organisation of presidential elections to renew the democratic
process on a sustainable basis," the junta said in a statement
published by national news agency AMI.

"These elections, which will be organised in as short a time
as possible, will be free and transparent," it said.

The council also pledged to respect treaties and other
international commitments binding Mauritania, Africa's newest
oil producer.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL770700220080807?rpc=44

Humm. Didn't they say that last time? Hello, hello, Condi? It is going to be necessary, the hard way, to guarantee FREEDOM for WESTERN SAHARA. Like, now. Today. AFRICOM my ass.

[ozymandius]

11. Speaking of China - I saw this yesterday.

The Slowdown in China

On China and trade: This first graph shows the combined loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Inbound traffic grew quickly for a number of years, but appears to be declining (there is a strong seasonal component). Inbound traffic is off almost 14% from June 2007.

Outbound traffic was flat for years, but has been increasing the last few years. Outbound traffic is up 12% from June 2007.

A few key points: Imports have slowed, and U.S. exports are increasing fairly rapidly. This means the trade deficit (especially ex-petroleum) is also decreasing. This change in the trade balance is probably due to the weak dollar and the weak U.S. economy.

.....

The danger is that China - and the rest of the global economy - will slow down too quickly, and U.S. exports will be negatively impacted. That could lead to more unemployment in the U.S. than I'm currently forecasting, and also a deeper recession.

[Ghost Dog]

13. "Slow down too quickly". Damn. It's going to happen.

Shippers are aware - http://www.balticexchange.com/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNS8iXMHRtA&feature=related

[DemReadingDU]

26. What do you see on that website?

I'm not familiar with that site, does it show shipping trends?

[Ghost Dog]

35. You're not familiar with the Baltic Exchange?

(Shippers' Café)

The Baltic Exchange FFA Volume Estimates
The Baltic Exchange FFA Volume Estimates (FFAV) - Access to this data is by subscription only.

Copyright (c) 2008 The Baltic Exchange Ltd., St Mary Axe, London, EC3A 8BH, United Kingdom
Tel + 44(0) 20 7283 9300, Fax + 44(0) 20 7369 1622
Registered in England Number 64795
Terms & Conditions & Data Policy

Page Reference : 3588

They got the numbers on (almost, some smugglers excepted) every cargo that moves over water, since, oh, like 400 years ago. City of London, you know? St Mary Axe, they say. I thought it was Cheap Street, Or Leadenhall (where I served time, once, before moving up to reprogram the Lewis Carrollian Stock Exchange. ("nonsense literature of the highest order")

(eDIT: close bracket.))

Edit again, in case you didn't get it (I'm sure you did, friend) the first time:

... And this, BTW, is a photo a girlfriend took the other day in Barcelona of me:

[ozymandius]

42. It's good to put a face to a name.

This is me from one of my parody movie posters. The original photo is about ten years old.



The teeth were digitally enhanced (not to look better - BTW).

[Ghost Dog]

48. Far out.

Ummm... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n02qyrlBUk

[ozymandius]

52. very cool

It's embarrassing to say that I have not thought of John Renbourn for ages. Thanks for bringing him back to my attention.

[Ghost Dog]

54. John Renbourn is ...

(Bert Jansch not bad either) (Brit understatement) :hi: Mates from my time squatting in Chelsea (World's End).

[Ghost Dog]

81. It's a youtube fkn goldmine, ozy

(if we share, more or less, the same (mixed Celtic, of course) CULTURE.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cDjK5lMsRU&NR=1

[ozymandius]

83. We do.

My ancestry is Irish, Scottish, English and Dutch. Irish, Scottish and Welsh folk music traditions (and their North American exponents) are among my top-shelf favorites.

[Ghost Dog]

107. Right. A huge responsibility.

Mejor escuchar a "los otros". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEj7jnR--Dg

BTW: For your pleasure (Seamus Ennis): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF3fW4Nox9U

[DemReadingDU]

46. I am now, Thanks!

I must pay more attention to shipping cargo.


Nice to have a pic to go with your name.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

9. Toyota reports fall in fiscal first-quarter profit

TOKYO - Toyota's fiscal first-quarter profit plunged 28 percent from the previous year as slipping North American sales, a strong yen and rising material costs dented the earnings of the Japanese automaker.

Toyota Motor Corp. has so far avoided the kinds of deep losses racked up by U.S. automakers such as General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. But even Toyota, Japan's top automaker, is seeing the momentous pace of its sales growth slow amid a U.S. downturn and soaring gas prices.

Toyota reported Thursday that its April-June profit fell to 353.66 billion yen ($3.23 billion) from nearly 492 billion the same period the previous year. Quarterly sales edged down 4.7 percent to 6.215 trillion yen ($56.8 billion).

.....

Toyota's North American sales fell by 33,000 vehicles, or 4.3 percent, to 729,000. European sales were down by 32,000 vehicles, or 9.6 percent, to 301,000.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080807/ap_on_bi_ge/japan_earns_toyota

[ozymandius]

14. Nestle First-Half Profit Growth Slows on Coffee, Cocoa Prices

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Nestle SA, the world's largest food company, reported the slowest profit growth in four years in its first half after higher cocoa and coffee prices and a weaker dollar cut into earnings.

Net income in the six months through June rose to 5.21 billion Swiss francs ($4.92 billion) from 4.92 billion francs a year earlier, Vevey, Switzerland-based Nestle said today.

While the company also raised its sales forecast, revenue growth by volume slowed in the second quarter as Nestle increased prices to offset surging raw-material costs. Chief Financial Officer Jim Singh said consumers are switching to cheaper products in some food categories, limiting sales of brands such as Stouffer's prepared meals in the U.S.

.....

To be sure, Nestle is still posting volume growth four times the rate of rival Unilever. The world's second-largest consumer-products company last week reported growth on that basis of 0.8 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aoNR998w79Wg&refer=europe

[Ghost Dog]

106. Unilever. Jesus.

I recall being interviewed by them, back in the day. Turned them down. My first personal encounter with corporate evil.

(Vevey, next door to Montreu (FRENCH swiss) x, is quite (wealthy) weird also, BTW).

[ozymandius]

16. Barclays Beats Profit Estimates, Increases Credit Writedowns

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third- biggest bank, reported profit that fell less than analysts estimated, even after increasing writedowns of bad debts.

Barclays gained as much as 7.3 percent after the bank said in a statement that net income declined 34 percent to 1.72 billion pounds ($3.4 billion), or 26.2 pence a share, in the first six months of the year. Barclays marked down 2.8 billion pounds of credit-related assets in the first half, adding to last year's 2.3 billion pounds and exceeding the average estimate of five analysts.

``Maybe this is grist to the mill for those who said that Barclays was underproviding for its writedowns,'' said Simon Maughan, a London-based analyst at MF Global Securities Ltd. who has ``buy'' rating on the stock. ``They have written off significantly more than they flagged in June, and still the profit has met consensus.''

The bank wrote down or sold assets ``to manage the difficult positions we have in credit-related assets,'' President Robert Diamond said in an interview today. Holdings of securities tied to U.S. subprime mortgages, bond insurers and leveraged loans fell by 8 billion pounds, and further reductions are planned, he said. The Barclays Capital investment bank had pretax profit of 524 million pounds, down 69 percent from the year-ago first half.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&refer=europe&sid=arLq98mLiOpA

[ozymandius]

18. Hank the Great? Paulson Copies Frederick With Covered-Bond Plan

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- In 1769, short of funds to rebuild Prussia after attacks by Russia, Sweden and Austria, Frederick the Great let aristocrats, churches and monasteries raise money by pledging their estates as security to investors.

From those beginnings emerged what today is Europe's $3 trillion market for covered bonds -- securities backed by assets such as mortgages as well as the seller's promise to pay. Now U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, faced with carnage in the housing market that led to $480 billion of losses and writedowns at the world's top financial institutions, is using a similar strategy to help America's banks turn assets into cash.

While the European market has grown for 250 years, Paulson's plan confronts obstacles Frederick never faced: Besides competition from the biggest U.S. housing-finance companies, the debt would be tied to mortgages and banks that are sliding in value with America's homes and economy.

.....

Paulson's blueprint, unveiled last month, allows banks to sell bonds backed by mortgages made to homeowners who provide down payments of 20 percent and are current on their loans. U.S. covered-bonds might yield as much as 0.75 percentage point less than unsecured bank debt over time, according to analysts at New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a1DAILZ6FjFQ&refer=economy

[ozymandius]

20. 300 Point Rally follow up

Wow, lots of interesting responses from yesterday's 300 Point Dow Gains? During Bear Markets ONLY. I appreciate those of you who actually do a little research, and sent in some form of analysis.

...

Let's consider Bespoke's Analysis on the subject: They note that average returns three months after all 300+ point moves has been 0.06%, with positive returns 50% of the time.

Buying the 1997 and 1998 300+ days made you money (if you held on long enough). But as my marked up version of their chart (below) shows, every subsequent 300+ day led to an eventual lower low.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/300-point-rally.html

[ozymandius]

23. Mortgages Made in 2007 Go Bad at Rapid Clip

Mortgages issued in the first part of 2007 are going bad at a pace that far outstrips the 2006 vintage, suggesting that the blow to the financial system from U.S. housing woes will be deeper than many people earlier estimated.

An analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. shows that 0.91% of prime mortgages from 2007 were seriously delinquent after 12 months, meaning they were in foreclosure or at least 90 days past due. The equivalent figure for 2006 prime mortgages was just 0.33% after 12 months. The data reflect delinquencies as of April 30.

....

Data on other classes of mortgages suggest the same trend. Freddie Mac reported Wednesday that 1.38% of the 2007-vintage loans it purchased were seriously delinquent after 18 months compared with 0.38% of 2006 loans at the same point in their life. Freddie Mac generally purchases loans made to creditworthy borrowers.

....

Some 65% of subprime loans originated in 2007 will end up in default compared with about 45% of those originated in 2006, according to estimates by UBS AG, which looked at loans packaged into securities.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121805947661818327.html

[ozymandius]

24. quote from The Big Picture

When this entire mess is over, there are going to be a long list of people -- former bankers, fund managers, mortgage originators, and FNM/FRE execs -- who are going to need to learn, for professional reasons, the phrase, "Would you like fries with that, Sir?"

And, we are really just getting rolling with this -- closer to the beginning than the end.

[Dr.Phool]

32. And to make matters worse, they'll have to (gasp) pay taxes!

Working the drive through doesn't have the same breaks as being a hedge fund manager.

[Hugin]

60. "Would you like fries with that, Sir?"

Isn't it great how that just rolls off the tongue? :lol:

[PassingFair]

129. Evidence that lax lending was leading to higher mortgage delinquencies first emerged in late 2006.

Who could have foreseen?

:rofl:


"Evidence that lax lending standards were leading to higher mortgage delinquencies first emerged in late 2006. The first major casualty of the subprime credit crisis, New Century Financial Corp., imploded in early 2007. Yet the data from the FDIC and others suggest that lenders didn't substantially tighten standards until at least July or August 2007, when credit jitters hit Wall Street and financial stocks began to swoon."


This is the venerable Wall Street Journal?

We have been SCREWN!

My husband and I would drive through new sub-divisions
of McMansions and wonder "Who can AFFORD THESE?".

Apparently not MANY.

We came to realize that they were being bought by
co-workers and friends!

My attitude was....what could I say to them?
"Go for it, I guess...it's cheaper than rent --
but be prepared to have your credit RUINED on the
way out!"

[Demeter]

25. Oil Companies Escape Billions in Royalty Payments to Americans; Drilling Expansion Will Enrich U.S.

http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/35270

Oil Companies Escape Billions in Royalty Payments to Americans; Drilling Expansion Will Enrich U.S. & Foreign Corp Freeloaders

Statement of Tyson Slocum, Director, Public Citizen’s Energy Program

A bureaucratic oversight has allowed 24 oil companies to avoid more than $1.3 billion in royalties for the privilege of extracting oil and natural gas from U.S. territory in the Gulf of Mexico - with foreign companies responsible for 55 percent of that total. But this $1.3 billion in forgone royalties pales in comparison to the $60 billion that Americans stand to lose in royalty revenue over the life of these leases. And if Congress repeals the moratorium on Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) drilling that has existed since 1982, these freeloading oil companies will be eligible to bid on new leases, providing them with more record profits while American families are left holding the bag. These 24 companies have posted a combined $365 billion in profits since 2006.

The list of the specific companies comes from a February 2008 U.S. Department of Interior memo recently obtained by Public Citizen. Four of the 24 companies (BP, Marathon, Shell and Walter Oil & Gas) signed voluntary agreements to pay royalties going forward, but they will not be required to pay the more than $200 million taxpayers have been denied on production that already has occurred.

The U.S. Senate is currently considering amendments to the Stop Excessive Energy Speculation Act of 2008 (S. 3268) that would repeal the congressional ban on offshore drilling. The U.S. House of Representatives is also considering measures in the Deep Ocean Energy Resources Act of 2008 (H.R. 6108) that would open up the OCS to new drilling. However, allowing new drilling in these areas will not significantly lower gasoline prices. According to a U.S. Department of Energy report, opening all areas off the coast of the Atlantic, Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico to new drilling "would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030." And new areas were opened for drilling in December 2006, when Congress passed the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act (Public Law 109-432), which authorized leasing 8.3 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico, 70 percent of which had been previously been protected under congressional moratoria.

It is irresponsible to allow companies that escaped the payment of potentially more than $60 billion in royalties because of a loophole to get access to more leases. There is legislative precedent to force companies to pay their fair share. The House passed a measure in January 2007 that would forbid oil companies from being awarded any new leases unless they renegotiate non-royalty leases from 1998 and 1999. President Bush opposed this part of the legislation, and the Senate has yet to adopt it. The U.S. is the third-largest producer of oil in the world, and 31 percent of that production comes from land owned by the federal government.

It should not come as a surprise that much of the impetus for opening the OCS comes from an expensive advertising campaign financed by Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s American Solutions for Winning the Future. When Gingrich was speaker, Congress passed the Deep Water Royalty Relief Act of 1995. It turned out to be an even bigger favor than Congress had intended.

Because of a bureaucratic oversight by the Department of Interior during the implementation of the act, oil companies that secured leases in 1998 and 1999 were exempted from royalties, regardless of the prevailing market price of oil. This stands in stark contrast to other, similar leases, which require the payment of royalties if the price of oil exceeds a certain threshold. The day the bill was signed in November 1995, West Texas Intermediate oil was trading at $18.28/barrel. With oil now trading nearly 600 percent higher at more than $120/barrel, these companies have been and will be extracting very valuable energy from public land without paying any royalties to American taxpayers.

In addition, there is widespread mismanagement of the royalty program that allows oil companies to underpay royalties, resulting in Americans being cheated out of hundreds of millions of dollars. Unless that is fixed, expansion of OCS development will also unfairly enrich oil companies, most of which are foreign. A former top auditor at the Department of Interior testified under oath in March 2007 that his superiors limited his ability to collect royalties from oil companies that were owed to the American people. In 2007, a jury in a case filed under the False Claims Act found that Kerr-McGee (now Anadarko), one of the holders of the no-royalty leases from 1998 and 1999, deliberately underpaid more than $7.5 million in royalties....



To see a breakdown of the forgone royalties, go to http://www.citizen.org/documents/OCS.pdf.

To read the Department of Interior memo obtained by Public Citizen, go to http://www.citizen.org/documents/AlfredLetter.pdf.

[mbperrin]

56. Wow. That's some oversight.

Did we at least get a kiss with that?

[Demeter]

91. I'm Sure Bush and Cheney Did

The rest of us got somewhat more callous treatment.

[AnneD]

122. Having Indian relatives in Oklahoma....

I am not surprised by the revelation. I always think back to an episode of Northern Exposure. This is from a faded memory from years ago so not 100% accurate. Marilyn's tribe was having a parade. But to be in this parade, you had to be oppress or something like that. The Doc said he should be in it because he was Jewish. She wouldn't let him join. It was about that time he thought he had a loophole out of the contract he had signed to serve as Cecily's Doc. Something happened and he lost all hope of getting out of his contract and had to stay in Alaska. At that point, Marilyn said he could join the parade. When he ask why, she said he looked sad and had no hope. To be oppressed, you have to have NO hope.

So, if you think the taxpayers will every get that money back.....join my ancestors parade.

[wordpix]

98. BushCo Dept. of Interior hacks are responsible for this & did it deliberately to enrich cronies

:grr: This is no "bureaucratic oversight," this is deliberately stealing from Americans.

[UpInArms]

27. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.026 Change -0.228 (-0.31%)

Forex Traders Are Long the Euro Dollar but Should You Buy EUR/USD?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Traders_Are_Buying_Euro_Dollar1218057837107.html

According to the FXCM SSI, a proprietary indicator that tracks the positioning of more than 30.000 traders, retail traders have been aggressively buying EURUSD. Yet, in the past, the SSI has been working well as a contrarian indicator, particularly during trending markets, and the EURUSD could sell off ahead of the ECB meeting.

Traders Are Buying Euro Dollar. Should I sell EUR/USD?

Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 2 percent as widely expected by the market and retail traders have been taking new long positions. In fact, long positions are up by 13.2% since yesterday and the ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yet, in the past, the SSI has been working really well as a contrarian indicator, particularly during trending markets, and the EURUSD could sell off more in the next few days.

Why contrarian traders are normally more profitable?

Generally speaking, more long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. Indeed, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action. The current positioning for the world’s most heavily traded currency pairs is located in the table below.



...more...

Dollar Strength to Continue Near Term, but then Prone to a Correction

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar_Strength_to_Continue_Near1218029793070.html

The Dollar rally has a bit more to go over the short term, but the greenback is prone to a sharp correction. The GBPUSD exhibits the clearest pattern. Look for a low near 1.9470, for a bullish opportunity against 1.9337.

The larger EURUSD bias remains bearish. But one must be careful in attempting to enter short following a drop of nearly 600 pips from the top (1.6039) as this market is prone to a sharp countertrend rally. We are working under the interpretation that the drop from 1.6039 is wave C of an expanded flat that began at 1.6018 and will not end until below 1.5283. Very near term, expect a drop below 1.5445, which would possibly complete wave i of 3 down. A sharp rally back to 1.5515 or so would follow and present a high probability bearish opportunity against 1.5630. Trend analysis is bearish as price has broken below a trendline on the daily. Price is above the 21 day SMA and the SMA exhibits negative slope.

The USDJPY is at its highest since January. We expect strength to continue for weeks. Objectives are in the 113.25-116.65 zone. The rally from 103.76 should complete the final leg in the larger corrective advance from 95.72. Near term, a bullish bias is warranted against 107.65 (8/5 low) with the next level of resistance at 110.11 (1/9 high).

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Dana Holding to cut about 3,000 jobs in 2008 - MarketWatch

10 minutes ago Dana Holding Q2 loss $1.47 a share - MarketWatch
10 minutes ago Dana Holding to cut about 3,000 jobs in 2008 - MarketWatch

last month they rallied because of a JP Morgan mumbo jumbo statement - this month they do away with 3,000 jobs

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

30. Cup in Hand - Lehman CEO in talks with Asian investors: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSBNG34455220080807

(Reuters) - Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) CEO Dick Fuld has held talks with private-equity and foreign investors, including some from South Korea and other parts of Asia, about possibly raising more capital as he tries to offset a sale of $30 billion in hard-to-value mortgage assets, The New York Post said citing sources.

Working alongside newly installed President Bart McDade, Fuld has been chasing several strategies that center on figuring out the most feasible way to restore long-term confidence in the franchise without emerging from the current credit crisis as a shell of its former self.

A number of options are on the table, including selling Lehman's asset-management unit Neuberger Berman.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Caught Lying - Citi may buy back $5-8 billion auction-rate debt: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0642098620080807?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) may reach a preliminary agreement with regulators as soon as Thursday to buy back $5 billion to $8 billion of auction-rate securities to settle allegations that it wrongly told customers the debt was safe, The Wall Street Journal said.

Citigroup would also pay a fine of as much as $100 million to state regulators, including $50 million to New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo's office, the paper said, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The largest U.S. bank by assets has been in talks with the office of New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, other state securities regulators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the WSJ said, citing people familiar with the matter.

On August 1, Cuomo's office threatened to charge Citigroup with fraudulently marketing and selling auction-rate securities and destroying documents that had been subpoenaed.

The office accused Citigroup of wrongly telling customers that auction-rate debt was safe, liquid and the equivalent of cash. Cuomo left the door open to a settlement.

A large payout would hurt Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit's efforts to slash costs and restore profitability. Citigroup has lost $17.4 billion in the last three quarters, largely from debt writedowns and increased credit reserves.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. SEC to announce major enforcement action at 11:15 a.m. ET

01. SEC: Enforcement action concerns auction-rate securities
9:53 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

02. SEC to announce major enforcement action at 11:15 a.m. ET
9:52 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

[Hugin]

62. I'm not rich so this auction rate police thing is of no concern to me...

Just more bailing out rich folks.

[ozymandius]

71. Oh goody. That in about fifteen minutes from now.

:popcorn:

[Hugin]

72. Well, if you're talking entertainment value...

that's a different story.

:popcorn:

[UpInArms]

73. settling early? and isn't this the group that is being brought in to fix Fannie and Freddie?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/morgan-stanley-settle-mass-ag/story.aspx?guid=%7BF43E667B%2D40DC%2D4DEE%2DBD4A%2D6594DA3B94AE%7D&dist=hplatest

Morgan Stanley to settle with Mass. AG for $1.5 mln: report

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Morgan Stanley (MS: 42.98, -0.20, -0.5%) will pay $1.5 million to settle a probe by the Massachusetts attorney general into the firm's auction rate securities practices, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday on its Web site, citing state officials. Morgan Stanley is one of many firms scrutinized for their practices concerning the securities after the $330 billion market collapsed earlier this year.

[Hugin]

77. And for only $1.5M they'd do it all over again...

I can see them running that through their grocery-store-checkout-bought calculators as we speak...

"Hmmm... $1.5M uh, how many zeros in that?, oh, yeh... *click* *clik* *clickity* okay... Do we subtractsutory or additionalize the $330 Braszillion with that? Yeah, use the dash line... *click* *click* *clack* HEY! This number
won't go in there! We must've made a whole ton of moneys (I like money) So... It was being a good deal!"

This dramatization brought to you by: The letters "F.A.I.L".

Real deterrent we've got going for us... I bet they can write-off the fine as a business expense. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

74. more of the show: Citigroup settles with NY atty general for $7 bln: reports

11:06 a.m.
Citigroup settles with NY atty general for $7 bln: reports

[Hugin]

78. So... That would make their ROI what 100 or 200 to 1?

I'd be happy if they just sent me my DEED! Damnit.

[UpInArms]

80. Citigroup to buy back over $7 bln in auction rate securities

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/citigroup-buy-back-over-7/story.aspx?guid=%7B08CD09ED%2D21DA%2D45F2%2DBB1E%2DCD6685F06724%7D&dist=msr_5

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup Inc. (C: 19.21, -0.49, -2.5%) will buy back more than $7 billion in illiquid auction rate securities under a settlement, the Office of the New York Attorney General said Thursday. Under the settlement, Citigroup will have to buy back the securities no later than Nov. 5 to relieve about 40,000 customers who have been unable to sell the securities since Feb. 12. Citigroup will also have to pay the State of New York a $50 million civil penalty and a separate $50 million civil penalty to the North American Securities Administrators Association, the office said.

[Hugin]

84. They should have sweetened the deal by say...

Adding some interest on to the paybacks... or maybe a pint of some CEOs blood for each of the 40,000 people
who were on hold. :o

[UpInArms]

88. line items

05. Citi sees $500 mln difference in ARS price, market value
11:41 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

06. Citi neither admits nor denies allegations of wrongdoing
11:41 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

07. Citigroup: Capital impact of ARS buyback to be 'de minimis'
11:39 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

08. Citigroup: Par value of ARS eligible for buyback is $7.3 bln
11:38 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

09. Citigroup: Over 50% of ARS redeemed since crisis
11:37 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

10. Citi will buy back auction rate securities at par
11:28 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

16. Cit may face civil fine from SEC, to be determined
11:28 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

17. Citigroup settles aution rate securities probe with SEC
11:26 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

19. Citigroup to pay NY state $100 mln in penalties: reports
11:07 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

20. Citigroup settles with NY atty general for $7 bln: reports
11:06 AM ET, Aug 07, 2008

[Hugin]

89. Clarification?

Is that "de minimis" or "De Mini-Mes" on #7?

There is a difference.

Also, weren't they all hep-ed up about a $5B sovereign-wealth fund infusion not so long ago, or am I thinking of
a different bank? I don't believe them when they say it is going to be a small impact on their Capital.

[UpInArms]

96. de minimis -

Under U.S. tax rules, the de minimis rule governs the treatment of small amounts of market discount. Under the rule, if a bond is purchased with a small amount of market discount (an amount less than 0.25% of the face value of a bond times the number of complete years between the bond’s acquisition date and its maturity date) the market discount is considered to be zero. If the market discount is less than the de minimis amount, the discount on the bond is generally treated as a capital gain upon disposition or redemption rather than as ordinary income.<4>

Under IRS guidelines, the de minimis rule can also apply to any benefit, property or service provided to an employee that has so little value that reporting for it would be unreasonable or administratively impracticable. Cash is not excludable, regardless of the amount. <5>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_minimis

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

97. These aren't appropriate for the trading floor:

Then again, perhaps they are.

[UpInArms]

117. Bank of America gets subpoenas, reports SEC probe

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEN737720080807?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp, the largest U.S. retail bank, said on Thursday it received subpoenas and requests for information relating to auction-rate securities from federal and state government agencies.

Separately, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said Countrywide Financial Corp, the mortgage lending giant it bought last month, has responded to subpoenas from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and faces a formal investigation by that agency.

In addition, Bank of America said it received subpoenas, interrogatories or civil investigative demands from a number of state attorneys general regarding municipal derivatives transactions from 1992 to the present.

Bank of America said it is cooperating with regulators. It disclosed the various matters in its quarterly report filed with the SEC.

Auction-rate debt has interest rates that reset through periodic auctions. Once thought safe, much of the market has been frozen since February, when Wall Street brokerages stopped supporting the debt.

...more...

[UpInArms]

120. Caught Lying: Merrill to buy clients' auction rate securities

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0736556820080807

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc said on Thursday it will buy back its clients' auction-rate securities beginning next year, making the world's largest retail brokerage the latest to bail its customers out of the securities.

Merrill said it will buy back the securities beginning January 15, at which time it estimates more than 30,000 of its clients will own $10 billion of the paper.

Clients looking for access to their cash before then can borrow against the securities until mid-January at no cost, or a low cost, said spokesman Mark Herr. Merrill's offer to buy back the securities expires January 15, 2010.

<snip>

Merrill said it will buy back the assets at their face value, and that buying back the securities will not have a material impact on its capital levels or financial performance.

Merrill estimates that clients hold about $12 billion of the securities, but expects issuers to buy back about $2 billion of the debt between now and mid-January.

why are these articles written so that it appears these POS investment banks which are now on the Fed Dole are voluntarily buying back the products that they lied about?

[Demeter]

92. $7 Billion and a Massive Fine, Last I Heard on NPR at Noon

I am simply blown away by the way people throw billions around these days....I feel like the villain in Austin Powers--way behind the inflation curve!

[Tansy_Gold]

131. Okay, my naive question is this:

With all these billions of write-downs and buy-backs and so on, is this having any effect on that 11/07 figure of $516T in notional value for the derivatives market, or whatever the hell that $516T figure was applied to?

I realize that all the billions of write-offs we've seen so far don't add up to quite even ONE trillion yet, meaning we have 515 more to go, but I'm just morbidly curious, y'know? I mean, it's still all imaginary money, isn't it? ISN'T IT???



Tansy Gold, MC

[Robbien]

133. It is imaginary, but

that is what this lawsuit and settlement is all about. Investment firms issuing these toxic instruments have moved them off their books saying that they are not real, they don't have to repay them.

But Cuomo and the State of New York (and the States of Florida, Illinois and Connecticut) called them on it. Once the ratings agencies finally rated these instruments as the junk they really are, the State of New York's asset's value went to zero, thus showing their true imaginary colors.

For every dollar of non-real instruments out there, there is someone holding an IOU expecting to get paid, and not re-paid in imaginary dollars.

Or at least that's my take on it.

[antigop]

36. Treasury rules against pension plan transfers (but Bushco would support law changes)

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080806&id=8993601

The Bush administration dealt a blow to the already reeling financial services sector Wednesday, ruling that companies can't transfer their pension plans to large banks to be managed for a profit.

The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service said that current law doesn't allow such transfers unless they are part of a larger transaction that also includes "significant business assets."

Despite the ruling, the Treasury Department indicated the Bush Administration would support legislative changes to allow the transfers to occur.

The notion of allowing banks and other companies to acquire pension plans and manage them for a profit has raised some concerns among Democrats in Congress and unions

...
Several large banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., had urged Treasury to allow the transfers, according to Don Fuerst, a partner at the Mercer consulting firm in Denver. Spokesmen for those two banks did not immediately return calls for comment.

[antigop]

37. sorry-- I missed DemReadingDU's post from yesterday

DemReadingDU posted this on yesterday's SMW--sorry.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3425931&mesg_id=3427111

[DemReadingDU]

38. Hey, we need to see this today too!

Glad you reposted, it was late yesterday when I posted the link.

:hi:


edit to point out this tidbit:
Despite the ruling, the Treasury Department indicated the Bush Administration would support legislative changes to allow the transfers to occur.

[InkAddict]

59. I was under the impression that defined-benefit plans were

already held by banks, IN TRUST. Am I misunderstanding what is being suggested? Why would ANY corporation hand investment assets over to a third-party "owner" without that TRUST security? or Are they suggesting a one-time sale of plan assets for a set price? Wouldn't employees who are also often also stockholders object to this on the basis of perhaps giving future growth opportunities away from their corporate entity to a bank? What am I missing?

I worked as a Secretary, when I was young and dumb now going on older but, it seems, dumber, in a bank's Trust Administration Dept pre-ERISA.(left Jan 74). Seems as though the Senior Trust Officers were always on the look-out for new business client relationships from whom/which they could extract fiduciary fees which would then enrich the bank and, in turn, themselves. Like this recent ad:

The Senior Trust Administrator will be responsible for providing administration of highly complex fiduciary, investment, and custody account relationships. Responsible for Personal Trust business unit’s profitability and growth. Provides leadership, resolves problems, and motivates team in order to accomplish the business unit’s profit plan. Utilizes the resources of the integrated suite of services to develop new and profitable private banking, trust, investment and brokerage business. The average relationship size typically is in the range of at least $3 million to $8 million or higher.

I'm deeply saddened to see pensioners retirement investments done in by corporations that just did bad business elsewhere (like cutting exotic mortgages and failing in due diligence before writing loans). How did ERISA shape the money-grabbing from these, IN TRUST, plans?

[DemReadingDU]

67. more fees, and Cerberus wants to run corporate pensions

8/5/08
JPMorganChase, Citi, Cerberus, and Morgan Stanley are among the firms lobbying Washington to let them take over and run corporate pension funds

By managing those troubled plans, Wall Street also gains entrée to an appealing set of customers to whom it can sell a broad array of fee-generating products.

But the gambit to turn pensions into for-profit enterprises raises troubling questions. Critics, including some on Capitol Hill, worry that financial firms don't have workers' best interest at heart, which would put some 44 million current and future retirees at risk. "We think it's just a terrible idea," says Karen Friedman, policy director for advocacy group Pensions Rights Center. "In the wake of the subprime crisis, it would be crazy to allow financial institutions to manage these plans."

If Wall Street gambles with those pension assets and loses, U.S. taxpayers would probably foot the bill.

more...
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_33/b4096000769608.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story

[antigop]

108. "financial firms don't have workers' best interest at heart" -- Gee, ya think? n/t

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

40. 9:21AM EDT Energy Market Report

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 121.34 8:21am ET Up 2.76 (2.33%)
HOU08.NYM Heating Oil Sep 08 3.2992 8:20am ET Up 0.0613 (1.89%)
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 8.886 8:21am ET Up 0.113 (1.29%)
PNU08.NYM Propane Gas Sep 08 1.73 7:58am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBU08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Sep 08 3.0212 8:20am ET Up 0.0719 (2.44%)

Prices coming down now, but one must wonder: Does the PKK charge for pipeline explosions by the incident or by the foot?

You can bet that on a move like this, someone made some serious money by straddling it.

[antigop]

41. Inflation on the march: McDonald's $1 meal could cost $1.29

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080807/REG/885968483/1036

McDonald’s said on Thursday it was considering further price increases, but would do nothing that slowed customer traffic into its global network of stores.

The world’s largest restaurant chain posted second-quarter profit that beat expectations on strong international sales, but said to offset mounting commodity pressures it was looking at changes to the popular Dollar Menu, which lures value diners.

“I don’t think customers care that much if the price moves slightly away from a dollar,” Chief Executive Jim Skinner told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of an event to mark its sponsorship of the Olympics.

“It will always be the best value around,” he said.

Much speculation swirls around the fate of the Dollar Menu double cheeseburger, which McDonald’s has tested in certain markets at prices up to $1.29.

[Dr.Phool]

45. An Unhappy Meal?

I'm amazed that they were able to keep it at a buck for so long. Wholesale food prices were going through the roof for a while. They're coming down some now, but not enough.

[ozymandius]

70. Meal? By all legal standards they should not be able to use that word for this product.

So what should they call this? Happy Deal? Crappy Mealy? Anything but anything with 'meal' in the name...

[ozymandius]

43. 9:47 - suckers are being shown the value of 'due diligence'

Dow 11,505.44 Down 150.63 (1.29%)
Nasdaq 2,360.88 Down 17.49 (0.74%)
S&P 500 1,275.04 Down 14.15 (1.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.0060% Down 0.0420
NYSE Volume 303,586,220
Nasdaq Volume 152,615,720
09:40 am : There is not much positive news this morning -- two Dow components reported disappointing results, oil prices are rising and the number of new unemployment claims unexpectedly increased. As a result, the stock market gets off to sharply lower start.

AIG (AIG 24.97, -4.12) reported a massive loss of $5.4 billion, marking its third consecutive quarter of negative earnings. On an adjusted basis, AIG lost $0.51 per share, which fell well short of the expected profit of $0.63 per share. The result includes a pretax charge of roughly $5.6 billion for a net unrealized market valuation loss related to AIG Financial Products super senior credit default swap portfolio.

Wal-Mart (WMT 58.18, -2.58) reported a 3.0% increase in July same-store sales, although shares are still coming under pressure as the retailing giant was expected to post 3.3% growth.

In economic news, an increase in the number of weekly initial jobless claims raised concerns about the labor market. For the week ended Aug. 2, new jobless claims rose 1.6% to 455,000, compared to the expected reading of 420,000 claims.

Meanwhile, oil prices are up 1.8% to $120.75 per barrel, after declining around 5% during the previous three sessions.DJ30 -150.79 NASDAQ -20.55 SP500 -14.15

[Hugin]

51. Unless Wal-Mart does some massive (and sincere) spin control...

They're on their way down in my book. I'll never ever shop there again.


By sincere I mean literally dragging those responsible for their very visible anti-Democratic/Labor actions and policies
to the curb.

[InkAddict]

63. One can see The Great Wal from outer space.

The pressure on those venders may come back to haunt...and Sam's relatives may have to go live where?

I know it's now "ancient history" but From this blog: http://www.bloggingstocks.com/tag/Sam+Walton/

New management at Wal-Mart eventually?
Posted Jun 5th 2008 12:48PM by Douglas McIntyre
Filed under: Management, Wal-Mart (WMT)

One of Sam Walton's relatives is joining the Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) board, so there is, of course, speculation that he may one day get the top job. Of course, he probably does not have one iota of qualification to do anything at the world's largest retailer.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Gregory B. Penner, who was nominated to the board in April, is the 38-year-old son-in-law of Wal-Mart Chairman S. Robson Walton, himself a son of company founder Sam Walton." That is not entirely true. He was the CFO of the company's Japan operation which has lost hundreds of millions of dollars.

Penner's parents are sex therapists. An excellent background for running a massive chain of big stores.

[Hugin]

68. Morning AnneD...

Nice to see you weathered the storm.

Must've been your act of kindness last week. Someone put in a good word. ;)

[AnneD]

121. Thanks Prag.....

I figure karma works like a big celestial bank. You put in a lot of good deeds into your account 'cause you never know when you need a withdrawl because of a fine for your actions or lack there off. We have some folks that are seriously overdrawn and morally bankrupt. :evilgrin:

[Ghost Dog]

124. Too right.

... But the truly pure at heart

need no banks.

(I am not pure at heart, ok?, ya vey)

[AnneD]

134. I think...

in you true heart of hearts...you are. If I get there before you I will be happy to vouch for you;)

[antigop]

44. Harvard's endowment reportedly made a killing in the commodities markets

http://financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080807/REG/192147407/1036

Harvard University’s endowment fund has made a gain of 7% to 9% for the fiscal year ended June, boosted by investments in commodities, Treasuries and some strong hedge-fund performers, The Wall Street Journal said on Thursday, citing people familiar with the returns.

The returns were below the endowment’s average annual return rate of 15% over the previous decade but in a year when the subprime crisis and plunging stock markets caused many institutional investors to post their worst performance in six years those returns still put it at the top of its class, the Journal said.

Harvard, whose investments are closely watched in the asset management industry, had last year said its endowment grew to a new high of $34.9 billion for fiscal year 2007. The endowment is run by Harvard Management Co (HMC).

According to an HMC document, the fund began the fiscal year with 17% of its assets invested in commodities, a portion of which was in timber or farmland, the Journal said.

The paper said another Harvard investment that racked up even more profits from the credit crisis was Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group, a Boston-based investment firm that rose more than 52% last year, in part by buying credit-default swaps, or insurance protection, on residential mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds.

[Zynx]

66. I wonder if they continued to pile in during July and got properly crushed as a result.

[Zenlitened]

49. "Subprime is contained."

Just thought I'd throw that lil' gem out there for old time's sake!

Wasn't it fun, about this time last year, being lectured by the Big Important Smart People on th' tee-vee?

:crazy:

[Hugin]

53. It's like watching an old time horror movie...

"We've got the zombies under control."

[Zenlitened]

82. "All that excess liquidity sloshing around the globe..."

"... looking for someplace to invest!"

Ah, now I understand. Phony subprime-fueled liquidity = zombies.

And when zombies are on the loose, we all know what they're looking for...

That's right! Taxpayers, small investors, and other Designated Greater Fools to be left holding the bag.

:grr:

[Hugin]

85. Pretty much sums it up. n/t

[TalkingDog]

105. "Need Brains" was never a more appropriate concept for the talking heads. n/t

[ozymandius]

58. It's all about confidence. If I were Hank Paulson, I'd have none.

Paulson has a habit of being 100% wrong

[Hugin]

50. Let's say 10:10 ET: Not to worry...

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 11551.45 -104.62 -0.90%
• NASDAQ 2370.56 -7.81 -0.33%
• S&P 500 1279.85 -9.34 -0.72%


It'll pick up once the news gets worse... Especially for the middle-class.

[Dr.Phool]

57. Don't invest in Biden.

This could be old news, but it's the first I've seen of it.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0644245920080806?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Fund manager sues son and brother of U.S. Senator Biden
Wed Aug 6, 2008 5:44pm EDT




NEW YORK (Reuters) - A Deutsche Bank executive is suing a son and a brother of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden for at least $10 million over a deal they had to buy into a hedge fund, according to court documents.

Stephane Farouze, who is global head of fund derivatives for Deutsche Bank and lives in London, claimed that Biden's son Hunter and brother James broke a May 2006 contract and defrauded him after agreeing to buy his membership interests in New York-based Paradigm Companies LLC.

The lawsuit filed in New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan in June names Washington lobbyist Hunter Biden, James Biden, and James's former business partner Anthony Lotito as defendants.

On Wednesday, Farouze's lawyer Marlen Kruzhkov said that the Bidens "never had any intention of carrying out the agreement with my client".

(snip)

The lawsuit said that while the Bidens took control of the company, they never paid Farouze the cash they had agreed to pay.

(snip)

[DemReadingDU]

69. Ooops, guess Biden won't be Obama's VP, n/t

[UpInArms]

75. Delinquencies for 2007 mortgages outpacing 2006: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSN0730034520080807

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Delinquencies of prime mortgages originated in 2007 are outpacing those made in 2006, suggesting the U.S. housing and financial crisis may be deeper than initial estimates, the Wall Street Journal said on Thursday.

Citing an analysis prepared for the newspaper by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, the Journal said 0.91 percent of prime mortgages from 2007 were seriously delinquent after 12 months, meaning they were in foreclosure or at least 90 days past due.

That figure is nearly triple levels seen in 2006, when 0.33 percent of prime mortgages were delinquent after 12 months, the FDIC data showed.

<snip>

The Journal also said data on other classes of mortgages suggest the same trend. Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored mortgage giant, reported on Wednesday that 1.38 percent of 2007-vintage loans it purchased were seriously delinquent after 18 months, compared with 0.38 percent for similar 2006 loans.

For subprime loans made to homeowners with weak or nonexistent credit histories, the figures are more staggering. Some 65 percent of subprime loans originated in 2007 will end up in default, versus about 45 percent for 2006-vintage loans, according to estimates by UBS AG, the Journal report said.

[UpInArms]

76. Freddie Mac's negative net worth raises questions (Holy Shit Batman!)

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0625680320080807?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - By Freddie Mac's own admission, it has a negative net worth -- the latest reported net market value of the mortgage giant's assets is negative $5.6 billion.

To some investors, that means its shares should be trading closer to zero. Bears argue that the company's bonds are a reasonable investment given the U.S. government's increasingly explicit support, but its shares are a more questionable investment.

Freddie Mac's shares moved closer to zero on Wednesday, dropping nearly 20 percent to $6.49 after it posted a much-wider-than-expected quarterly loss of $821 million.

But Freddie's $4.2 billion market capitalization signals that at least some investors still see value in the company.

"Investors are betting that Freddie Mac can keep the show going long enough for either a recovery in the economy or the housing market, or to get help from the government," said Dan Alpert, managing director at investment bank Westwood Capital.

There may be some sense to that bet. The U.S. housing market is showing early signs of bottoming out, even if it is not yet recovering. A report last week said home prices in May in 20 major regions fell 0.9 percent from April, which was less than expected and not as severe as the prior month.

...more...

[ozymandius]

79. Is this the mark-to-market accounting of which Fool Secretary Paulson spoke?

He does believe in fair value accounting after all.

[ozymandius]

86. almost the lunch hour

11:54
Dow 11,537.85 Down 118.22 (1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,376.94 Down 1.43 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,279.41 Down 9.78 (0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 3.994% Down 0.054
NYSE Volume 1,797,288,250
Nasdaq Volume 806,433,937.5

11:30 am : The financial sector (-2.8%) falls to session lows, sending the broader market on the decline.

Citigroup (C 18.91, -0.79) and the NY Attorney General have reached a multi-billion dollar agreement over allegations that Citi misled investors. The NY Attorney General said that Citigroup marketed auction rate securities as safe and cash-like investments, when in fact they had increasing liquidity risk.

Citi agreed to buy back all illiquid auction rate securities from Citi retail customers, charities and small to mid-sized businesses. The securities are worth more than $7 billion. Citi must also reimburse all retail investors who sold their auction rate securities at a discount.DJ30 -119.44 NASDAQ -7.97 SP500 -11.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 959/714 mln/1644 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 865/401 mln/2081

11:00 am : The energy sector (+0.5%) bounces into positive territory in conjunction with a rise in crude prices (+1.8% at $120.68). At the same time, the broader market dips a bit, but is still trading well above session lows.

Within the energy sector, 79% of stocks are trading higher, led by the oil and gas exploration (+1.5%) and oil and gas drilling groups (+1.2%).DJ30 -102.75 NASDAQ -6.55 SP500 -9.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/564 mln/1568 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 845/323 mln/2039

[Kire]

87. I'm recommending this thread

mainly because of the cartoon at the bottom

[TalkingDog]

109. Ummm....what?

since we are showing pictures of ourselves today....
(PS kazoos are funny)

http://www.maniacworld.com/dog-with-strange-head-tilt.html

[Kire]

125. this

it's at the bottom of the OP, and it deserves to be seen by more people

I know nothing about the stock market.

[UpInArms]

127. the 'toons are almost always excellent

so glad that you could find us here at the SMW -

come on it - the water's fine!

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

128. Very nice. n/t

:evilgrin:

[Demeter]

93. It Looks Like a 6.5 on the Richter Scale Today

I can hear that brave little engine: "I think I can, I think I can," as it tries to drag the Dow back up to where it was yesterday.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

99. 1:00PM EDT Commodities

The "A pipeline go boom, we rockin' now" edition. Direct all questions and criticisms to The Harvard Endowment.

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 120.17 12:20pm ET Up 1.59 (1.34%)<--==:spank:
HOU08.NYM Heating Oil Sep 08 3.2549 12:20pm ET Up 0.017 (0.53%)<--==:spank:
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 8.85 12:20pm ET Up 0.077 (0.88%)<--==:spank:
PNU08.NYM Propane Gas Sep 08 1.73 12:18pm ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBU08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Sep 08 3.0015 12:20pm ET Up 0.0522 (1.77%)<--==:spank:

ALQ08.CMX Aluminum Aug 08 1.32 12:38pm ET 0.00 (0.00%)
HGQ08.CMX Copper Aug 08 3.48 12:49pm ET Up 0.017 (0.49%)
ZGQ08.CBT Gold 100 oz. Aug 08 875.60 10:38am ET Down 0.10 (0.01%)
GCQ08.CMX Gold Aug 08 873.00 12:27pm ET Down 2.60 (0.30%)
PAU08.NYM Palladium Sep 08 350.00 12:20pm ET Down 4.10 (1.16%)
PLU08.NYM Platinum Sep 08 2,040.10 12:10pm ET 0.00 (0.00%)
ZIQ08.CBT Silver 5000 oz. Aug 08 16.469 Jul 30 0.00 (0.00%)
SIQ08.CMX Silver Aug 08 16.215 10:06am ET Down 0.257 (1.56%)

CU08.CBT Corn Sep 08 520.00 1:07pm ET Up 12.00 (2.36%)<--==:spank:
OU08.CBT Oats Sep 08 365.00 12:38pm ET Up 8.00 (2.24%) <--==:spank:
RRU08.CBT Rough Rice Sep 08 16.10 11:09am ET Up 0.22 (1.39%)<--==:spank:
SMQ08.CBT Soybean Meal Aug 08 339.00 12:51pm ET Up 5.00 (1.50%)<--==:spank:
BOQ08.CBT Soybean Oil Aug 08 52.45 12:07pm ET Up 0.97 (1.88%) <--==:spank:
SQ08.CBT Soybeans Aug 08 1,237.00 1:03pm ET Up 16.50 (1.35%)<--==:spank:

FCQ08.CME Feeder Cattle Aug 08 114.45 1:11pm ET Down 1.05 (0.91%)
PBQ08.CME Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 08 66.50 1:01pm ET Up 2.60 (4.07%)
LHQ08.CME Lean Hogs Aug 08 86.15 1:13pm ET Up 1.75 (2.07%)
LCQ08.CME Live Cattle Aug 08 101.90 1:13pm ET Down 0.45 (0.44%)

CCU08.NYB Cocoa Sep 08 2,785.00 12:41pm ET Up 42.00 (1.52%)
KCU08.NYB Coffee Sep 08 140.80 12:53pm ET Up 2.90 (2.10%)
CTV08.NYB Cotton Oct 08 68.62 12:45pm ET Up 1.16 (1.72%)
BU08.CME Lumber Sep 08 253.50 1:14pm ET Down 3.80 (1.48%)
OJU08.NYB Orange Juice Sep 08 100.00 12:44pm ET Up 1.30 (1.32%)
SBV08.NYB Sugar #11 Oct 08 14.00 12:54pm ET Down 0.19 (1.34%)
SEU08.NYB Sugar #14 Sep 08 23.75 Aug 6 0.00 (0.00%)

[ozymandius]

100. The tug-o-war continues at 1:48.

Dow 11,560.48 Down 95.59 (0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,382.63 Up 4.26 (0.18%)
S&P 500 1,280.42 Down 8.77 (0.68%)
10-Yr Bond 3.949% Down 0.099
NYSE Volume 2,800,618,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,257,725,125

1:30 pm : The recovery effort fades as continued weakness in financials (-3.2%), consumer staples (-1.3%) and telecom (-1.6%) offset advances made by utilities (+1.0%) and tech (+1.0%). The Nasdaq holds a slight gain, while the S&P and Dow trade with losses.

The Treasury market is rallying, with the 10-year note up 30 ticks, sending its yield down to 3.94%. The buying interest is fueled by a well received Treasury auction.DJ30 -90.62 NASDAQ +5.73 SP500 -8.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1179/1.17 bln/1535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1026/634 mln/2016

[Dr.Phool]

104. Beer Futures looking up.

I'm going to the bar for lunch.

And a little pre-Browns game warm-up.

[UpInArms]

101. Shaky economy hits credit card ABS

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0744666220080807?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As the U.S. economy teeters on the brink of recession the credit-card asset-backed market is showing signs of stress as rising unemployment squeezes consumers further, forcing defaults on credit card payments.

Delinquencies on credit cards are rising, investors are demanding higher yield spreads for credit card-backed securities, and issuance is down as the sector's largest buyers retreat.

"This is typical borrower performance as we enter a recession. This is not a replay of the subprime mortgage disaster but the market is pricing it in that way," said Glenn Schultz, analyst at Wachovia Securities. "Underwriting in the credit card segment was much better than subprime."

Fears that the problems in the subprime mortgage market would spread to the ABS market saw spreads widen in the last year or so. Spreads rated "AAA" on three-year credit cards reached 110 basis points over the London interbank offered rate in March, after trading close to Libor a year earlier, said Schultz.

...more...

[UpInArms]

102. Ex-Refco president sentenced to 10 years prison

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0732847120080807

ormer president of Refco, once the largest independent commodities broker, was sentenced to 10 years in prison for his role in a $2.4 billion fraud that involved hiding huge trading losses from clients.

His sentence was handed down by U.S. District Judge Naomi Buchwald in Manhattan at a hearing on Thursday.

Grant, 64, was the lone top executive at Refco to face trial. His former colleague, ex-chief executive Phillip Bennett, pleaded guilty in February to 20 criminal counts a month before he was due to go to trial. Bennett was sentenced last month to 16 years in prison.

Prosecutors contend that Grant stood at Bennett's side in carrying out a massive fraud in an effort to lie about Refco's financial health. Their motive was to keep the firm afloat in the hopes of one day selling it for a big profit, the government argued.

Refco unraveled in 2005, shortly after it became a public company, after revealing that Bennett had hidden $430 million in bad customer debt. Refco stock plummeted and the company filed for bankruptcy.

Grant was convicted at trial of five criminal counts -- conspiracy, securities fraud, wire fraud, bank fraud and money laundering. His lawyers have argued that, even if the government's evidence were to be accepted, that evidence shows Grant only played a relatively minor role in comparison to Bennett.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

132. HEY, OZY!!!

Shouldn't you add this one and the National Century guys to the home page headlines?

[nolabels]

111. Dow down -223.74 and nobody keeping track?

what up with that :shrug:

[nolabels]

112. On second thought people are probably having a hard time keeping track of their jobs

Good heavens who would want lose theirs in this economy anyway?

Stocks fall on weak jobs report, Wal-Mart sales
By TIM PARADIS AP Business Writer © 2008 The Associated Press
Aug. 7, 2008, 2:04PM
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/topstory/5930426.html


The people who write these stories must be genius. The help wanted pages (5 or 6) in my local paper have been reduced to a half a column or less :scared:

[Amonester]

113. I was one day early (two days ago) in my prediction...

so I lost my bet at the Wall Street, La Roulette.

[Dr.Phool]

116. It took them another day to run out of suckers.

They're born every 30 seconds now, instead of every minute.

[TheWatcher]

119. Take Heart Amonester

What the freewheeling PermaBull Bots, (who have placed all their blind faith in, "The Fed will always bail us out" as their Mantra for success) who are going along for the ride with this nonsense, do not understand is that in the end, The Criminals are going to get THEIR money too.

It seems that the Party is falling apart.

These wild swings day after day in either direction are breathtaking.

Make no mistake though, those in control are going to throw everything they can at this, to keep the Party going as long as it can, until even they can no longer control The Monster they have created.

I said many years ago, during the 2001-2002 debacle, that people were going to be amazed and appalled at the lengths and machinations the PTB will go to to keep all of this going, and that they had not even begun to see the Worst of what unabated corruption and manipulation they were capable of.

These past seven years has gone beyond even what I thought was possible.

Perhaps, in the end, The Fed is just going to try and nationalize the entire country and be done with it.

It's very difficult to even trade in this environment, much less try to invest for the future.

Personally, I thought they would at least be able to Prop this thing until after the Olympics, but if you look at the fundamentals (which don't seem to matter to Wall Street), the rot and disintegration of the foundation and underpinnings holding this system together is reaching a critical level. This entire rally from the 10732 intra-day level a couple of weeks ago has been nothing short of a fabricated joke. And the joke is on all of us.

The signs are everywhere.

This is NOT going to end well. It all ends in tears.

These things usually do.

On Edit: If you check the Financials in After Hours Trading, they are all rallying for the most part of their lows for the day. Just more Bullshit.

The jig is up. The only question left is when someone is going to break it to the Idiots on Wall Street.

[TalkingDog]

114. Gosh, I'm keeping track, it's just that I've got vertical whiplash....

from watching it ping all over the place.

And much to my chagrin, I've been WAY busy and can't participate fully in all the reindeer games of seeking, reading, posting and analyzing.....*sigh*

But I think I'll take GhostDog's suggestion and start watching boats instead of trucks....

[Trajan]

130. Copy that ....

Kinda unusual in these threads ....

[Demeter]

115. Decoupling in the Land of the Dead&#8207;

Aug. 5 issue of DailyReckoning.com:

First, the U.S. economy is in decline. The latest figures show it growing more slowly than the population – which means, the average citizen is getting poorer.

Of course, dear readers know the figures are not very helpful anyway. In a consumer economy, GDP growth rates tend to measure the rate at which people consume wealth rather than the rate at which they create it.

But let us put that quibble aside, at least for this morning.

The weekend news brought more evidence that the U.S. economy has peaked out. Recent graduates are having a hard time finding work, says the Washington Post . Joblessness is supposed to rise to 6% next year, adds the Financial Times .

Even ‘the rich are beginning to feel the pain,’ opines a piece from the Associated Press .

And millions of Americans are facing “retirement poverty,” continued the salmon-colored paper. Why? They haven’t saved enough...and their houses – on which they had counted to finance their golden years – suddenly seem to be made of base metal.

Fannie Mae faces a “glut of unsold homes,” reports the Chicago Tribune . (What the paper means is that it faces a glut of houses, not homes. A home is what people make of a house. But if it is unsold, it is a house, not a home. And many of the houses built in America in the last 10 years will probably never be homes. They are too expensive. Too far out. And too many.)

“Ghost towns across America,” is how the Wall Street Journal describes them...

Between 1950 and 2000, the USA transformed itself from a country that made things to a country that financed things. Mothers stopped wanting their babies to grow up and become captains of industry; instead, they wanted them to go to Wall Street. That’s where the money was – in finance, not in manufacture. Gradually, the engineers and machinists who used to run the automakers were replaced by financiers. And gradually, the business model changed, from making money by selling cars to making money by financing cars. And if you’re going to finance cars, why not finance some houses too?

But now the finance industry seems to have peaked out. And what’s left of the automakers? We don’t know...but we’re going to find out soon – as they get hauled to the junkyards, stripped, dismantled and sold for scrap.

[skoalyman]

126. thats a good piece it sums up the transitions we've gone through

who knows what the next thing will be:shrug:

[UpInArms]

118. SEC Subpoenas More Than 50 Hedge Fund Advisors

http://seekingalpha.com/article/84984-sec-subpoenas-more-than-50-hedge-fund-advisors?source=feed

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s actions in cases of illegal insider trading or stock manipulation are essential in improving market efficiency. The potential that informed parties such as corporate insiders, brokers, underwriters, large shareholders and market makers are likely to be manipulators, as it has often been the case - is quite real. The reality is, these groups are close to the information loop, therefore their tendency of exerting less than honest influences toward their own best interests obviously increases.

Illegal insider trading is apparently a growing concern at the Securities and Exchange Commission, prompting the SEC, according to a WSJ report - to sent subpoenas to more than 50 hedge-fund advisers:

<snipping 'cause I can't make the paragraph copy right>

The near-collapse of Bear Stearns earlier this year, which saw the investment bank sell for a bargain-basement price of one billion dollars to JPMorgan Chase, pushed the SEC to start investigating whether a combination of false rumors and manipulative short-selling combined, drove down the shares of the 85-year-old investment giant.

Lehman Brother’s shares also have been under pressure for quite some time. “There are a lot of rumors in the marketplace that are totally unfounded. We are suspicious that the rumors are being promulgated by short sellers of our stock that have an economic self interest,” Kerrie Cohen, a spokeswoman for Lehman Brothers, told Reuters.

...more...

[ozone_man]

123. Another attempt to limit short selling?

When will the SEC learn that the market has to reach true value, about half of what it is now, maybe less. You can't defy gravity indefinitely. It's the law.