STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 4

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 4, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 170
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2752 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2477 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2768
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 1, 2008

Dow... 11,326.32 -51.70 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq... 2,310.96 -14.59 (-0.63%)
S&P 500... 1,260.31 -7.07 (-0.56%)
Gold future... 917.50 -5.20 (-0.57%)
30-Year Bond 4.57% -0.03 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.95% -0.03 (-0.78%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Doscientos Mes

Set against the magnitude of credit cycle issues of the moment that indeed have very meaningful implications for what will be the reality of domestic economic outcomes ahead, questions have arisen as to whether we are now facing a relatively run of the mill bear market for equities or perhaps a bear of generational proportion. The thought has clearly made the rounds that the US equity bear market started in early 2000 was simply interrupted to the downside in 2002/2003 by incredible domestic monetary and credit cycle stimulus, as was truly exemplified by the literal generational bubble that was blown in US residential real estate prices, acting to lift both the financial markets and economy itself for a time. Of course no one knows in advance what financial market behavior and price trajectory will be ahead, but we do hope there are some signposts that may be helpful in guiding us as to potential ultimate downside severity. The bottom line is that big time bear markets really do indeed come along maybe once in a generation. They are infrequent by nature. By this, we're really referring to the devastating bears. You know, the ones that can change lives, destroy fortunes, and generally have investors swearing off equities forever. As investors in the current generation, we've clearly been conditioned over the last three and one half decades to view equity market corrections as opportunities. For the bulk of American equity market history, this has indeed been the case. But every once in a while, it's different. Every once in a while, we hit a generational event.

Before going any further, we have absolutely no way of knowing if we've embarked on a big time bear. A big multi-standard deviation event. We just thought it topical to at least address the unthinkable as simply one possibility in a number of outcomes. As we've preached far too many times over the years, the key to successful investment management is risk management. And that quite simply means we need to have a game plan for all potential market outcomes. Although this is far from a pleasant thought, we're simply contemplating how we might identify "the big one," if you will, if indeed that is to occur at all. Sincerely, the reason we are addressing this rather unpleasant thought is that these types of devastating episodes often coincide with once in a generation financial market or real world events. In the 1930's, the devastating equity bear was accompanied by the peak of a generational credit cycle, ultimately leading to the reality of economic depression as reconciliation played out. In Japan during the late 1980's, the equity peak was accompanied by not only the obvious equity bubble, but also a generational bubble in real estate valuations driven by their own credit cycle mania of sorts, likewise leading to Japan's own version of a "contained depression" in economic activity in the aftermath of the bubble peak. Without attempting to sound melodramatic, at the moment and although intertwined in nature, the US is facing both potentialities - a possible generational credit cycle peak, and a generational bubble in real estate that is now deflating. We told you this was not going to be pleasant, didn't we?

.....

Of course the very important issue of the moment is our present circumstance. NEVER since the early 1980's have we even been near the zero line for this indicator (10 year moving average of S&P 500). Even at the equity market lows of 2002/2003, this 10 year moving average rested near 100%. But as of right now, the number is approximately 14%. Without reaching for melodrama, it will not take much nominal dollar downside from here to push this into negative territory. If that indeed comes to pass, it would be yet another indicator of important historical magnitude suggesting we batten down the hatches in generational fashion. It will be strongly suggesting meaningful economic upheaval has arrived, if indeed equities have retained their character as being a meaningful leading indicator for the real economy. You can see that in the aftermath of the historical peaks in this indicator (1920's and 1950's), it ultimately fell below zero in rhythmic fashion before the long cycle bottomed. We'd have a very hard time saying we're not in the process of tracing out the same behavior ahead in the current cycle, given that the prior peak in the late 1990's/early this decade was a record number of price extension to the upside.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Zenlitened]

94. Maybe I'm a bit dense today, but...

... why is the 200-month moving averaged referenced in Spanish for this article? Is there some significance to "Doscientos Mes" that I'm missing? Thanks!
:hi:

[slipslidingaway]

123. They like to use catchy titles IMO...

if there is something else, I am missing it as well.

http://contraryinvestor.com/archive2000.htm

Year 2000 Archives:

12/28 Anticipation
12/21 Postcards From The Edge
12/14 Bank On It?
12/12 Fed Men Tell No Tales: 3Q Fed Flow Of Funds Report
12/07 3Q Update: US Banking System Derivatives Exposure
12/05 Sky Blue And Black
11/30 Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow
11/28 Pages Turning
11/21 Where Are All The Bias?
11/16 Junkyard Dogs
11/14 The Weighting Is The Hardest Part
11/09 The Winter Of Our Discontent
11/07 Fuzzy Math
11/02 Volatility
10/31 The US Dollar - Trick or Treat?
10/26 A Return Across The Fields Of Gold - From Here To Reality (Part II)
10/24 A Return Across The Fields Of Gold - From Here To Reality (Part I)
10/19 Getting Down To Brass Tax
10/17 War Of The Worlds
10/12 Champagne Glitches And Caviar Screams
10/10 A Beautiful Day In The Neighborhood?
10/05 Market Observations
10/03 The Sound Of Pretenses Falling All Around
9/28 Capital Spending - The Fly In The Ointment Of The New Era
9/26 Watch Out For Falling Stocks
9/21 Is Everyone In Yet?
9/19 Fed Men Tell No Tales
9/14 Oils Well That Ends Well
9/12 Bank Derivatives Exposure: Update 2Q 2000
9/07 Market Observations
9/05 Will The Circle Be Unbroken?
8/31 Mind The Gap (Part II)
8/29 Mind The Gap (Part I)
8/24 Market Observations
7/18 We Are Not Alone
7/13 Circling The Airport
7/11 Is Corporate America Losing Its Appetite For Stocks
7/05 Capping Off A Horrible Half Year? Hardly
6/29 Market Observations
6/27 New Bull Market, Or Just New Bull?
6/20 Counting Cards
6/15 Market Observations
6/13 We See Dead People
6/08 Bank Derivatives Exposure: 1Q 2000
6/06 Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
6/01 With A Telescope, Not A Microscope
5/30 CRACK
5/25 Hiding Places
5/23 Market Observations
5/19 Market Observations
5/16 Drip, Drip, Drip
5/09 Market Observations
5/02 Buy? With What?
4/27 Market Observations
4/25 The Chicken Or The Egg$$$
4/18 Take A Deep Breath
4/13 What Now?
4/11 Credit Where Credit Is Due
4/04 Who's Left To Buy?
3/30 Greenspan Shrugged
3/28 At The Margin
3/23 It Ain't Over Till It's Over
3/21 CyberNuts
3/16 Living On De Fault Line
3/9 Every Picture Tells A Story, Don't It?
3/7 Now Or Never?
3/2 NO FEAR
2/29 Market Observations
2/24 The Executioner
2/22 Market Observations
2/17 Market Observations
2/15 Market Observations
2/8 What's It Like At The Top?
2/3 Update: Bank Derivatives Exposure
2/1 What A Creep!
1/27 Market Observations
1/25 Market Observations
1/20 Market Observations
1/18 Market Observations
1/13 The Ultimate Perceptual Mistake
1/11 Market Observations
1/4 Happy? New Year

[Demeter]

117. Well, Take a Good Guess! If It Looks Like 1929, and It Smells Like 1929, and It Feels LIke

aw, you can finish it off yourselves.

"Before going any further, we have absolutely no way of knowing if we've embarked on a big time bear."


Well, take a good guess, fella. Or suffer the consequences of your rosy optimism.

[AnneD]

2. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. I had plans today but we are on plan C. There is a named tropical storm building now and we strongly suspect it might hit the Galveston/ Houston. I am up early to take a shower and will be doing hurricane prep all day long. As many of you know, I live in a small RV and I will not be staying here but will be with a friend should it get worse.

I am lucky. I filled my gas tank yesterday and bought groceries yesterday before they made announcements. I had water already. Basically I will do laundry, securing plants and other outside things. I will squeeze a trip to the bank and pay a bill or two but I have a full day. I will try and post as I have time.

I will post and read posts here when I have a chance. Not worried much, just careful. Catch you on the fly.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Anne

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Fare well. Be safe. And good luck. Please keep us posted on your condition and whereabouts.

Ozy

[AnneD]

25. Hubby just came home...

I love him but sometimes he is clueless. He just came home and wonders why I am up and about so early. I told him about the hurricane. Oh, he was saying. they told us to bring our 3 days of supplies, I wasn't paying attention.

He works in the medical center as security so I won't be seeing him for a while I guess. Add that to my list of things to do...pack 3 days of food and clothing for Mr. Clueless. I have to laugh...he has traveled the world, but I wonder how he did it-he is the worst when it comes to packing. I packed for him the first time last year when he went to India. He got sick and called me worried. He was shocked when I told him he had medicine in his bag. When he came back, he told me he was amazed at what was in the bag. He got to the point where he looked there first before buying something and was shocked that he could find what he needed.

Man hunter-woman gather....she said, paraphrasing Tarzan:spray:

[JNelson6563]

27. So "packing" means "bring stuff"? Who knew?

As they say, behind every successful man is a surprised woman. :toast:

I hope the storm passes swiftly and not too brutally.

Julie

[AnneD]

38. I remember a Baby Blues cartoon...

Hubby comes in and says, Let's go for a ride. In one frame the wife is putting diapers, toys, wipes, bottles and god know what else, and is juggling suitcase sized diaper bag and baby and looks like she has been through the mill. She's ready to go. In the next frame, the hubby hubby picks up the car keys and shouts, Honey, I'm ready to go. This is why I think, in God's wisdom, he made the women in charge of taking care of the kids.

[Dr.Phool]

37. My wife insists on doing all the packing.

Because I don't do it right.

She packed for a flight up north a couple of weeks ago. She forgot to pack all of her underwear, and the 2 casual shirts I had laid out for the trip.

Just think what I would have forgotten.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :applause:


She'll probably throw my ass out tonight. I sneaking over to the animal shelter to look for another dog.

[AnneD]

39. Sounds like a battle of the sexs pack off....

Hubby now admits I am the Master Packer. He can pack his stuff.....from my list.

[Warpy]

70. Life was sure a lot easier back in the hippie days

when I'd take off for a week with a change of undies, a little bottle of Dr. Bronner's and a can opener.

It only got complicated when I stopped wanting to look like a sleaze at my destination.

The good news is that you probably won't need the three day's worth of gear. Edouard looks like he'll remain a bit of a wuss.

[AnneD]

102. Right now...

it is wind and water that looks like they will do the most damage. Tornadoes that come with the hurricanes do a bit of damage. We have power outages that can last a while (which is why I am washing and will be doing heavy duty cooking. If you are on well water-you really need to stock pile the water.

When you have no A/C , and it is hot and humid, dry clean clothes can go a long way to making you feel better. And when it's hot, who wants to cook. The one thing I have never gotten use to is that folks put their patio furniture, etc in the swimming pools when storms hit. It works to keep them from blowing about, it just looks like a mermaid pool party. When we were kids, that's what we would pretend anyway.

I did remember to pick up some adult beverages so the hurricane party will commence tomorrow:toast:

[Warpy]

124. I see the damned thing slowed to 6KPH. That's not good.

The thing my dad hated most about the Florida hurricanes of 2004 is that he ran out of booze and the grog shop was shut for over a week waiting for power to be restored.

He had two half gallon bottles of the stuff stashed when he died.

[AnneD]

125. I remembered.....

and got some stuff this afternoon. The British may like a cup of strong brisk tea but it is hard liquor that steels my wool.

[UpInArms]

21. g'morning AnneD!

Take care and stay safe - we'll be thinking of you

:grouphug:

[AnneD]

26. Thanks ....

for the kind thoughts.

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

08:30 Personal Income Jun
Briefing 0.0%
Consensus -0.1%
Prior 1.9%

08:30 Personal Spending Jun
Briefing 0.4%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.8%

10:00 Factory Orders Jun
Briefing 0.5%
Consensus 0.7%
Prior 0.6%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

30. U.S. PCE inflation up 4.1% in past year, most in 17 years

03. U.S. PCE inflation up 4.1% in past year, most in 17 years
8:30 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

04. U.S. June nominal spending up 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected
8:30 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

05. U.S. June PCE core inflation up 0.3% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

06. U.S. June PCE inflation up 0.8%, most in 27 years
8:30 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

07. U.S. June real consumer spending falls 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

08. U.S. June incomes rise 0.1% vs. -0.1% expected
8:30 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

[UpInArms]

69. Worst inflation in 27 years trumps tax rebates

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/worst-inflation-27-years-trumps/story.aspx?guid=%7B5A153311%2D54CC%2D4AEA%2DA26D%2D09F2B841A4AE%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The windfall of cash from Washington got eaten up in June by the worst inflation in 27 years, Commerce Department data showed Monday.

Nominal spending grew 0.6% on the month, but the increase was all due to higher prices, which spiked 0.8% -- the most for a month since 1981.

Adjusted for inflation, June's so-called real spending fell 0.2%, the first decline since February. Real consumer spending is up just 1.2% from a year ago.

The impact of the tax rebates on personal incomes was reduced in June: After getting $48.1 billion from the government in May, individuals received $27.9 billion.

Personal incomes rose 0.1% after a 1.8% surge in May.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for nominal spending to rise 0.5% and incomes to fall 0.1%. See Economic Calendar.

Real disposable incomes fell 2.6% in June, reversing gears after a 5.2% gain in May.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Real spending falls in June despite rebates

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-inflation-gauge-runs-hotter/story.aspx?guid=%7B2E6D844E%2D2292%2D4587%2D85A2%2DC3DBA1FC18CA%7D&siteid=bnbh

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Real consumer spending fell in June for the first time since February as the windfall of cash from Washington was eaten up by the worst inflation in 27 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Nominal spending rose 0.6%, but the increase was all due to higher prices, which rose 0.8% during the month, the most in 27 years. Real spending (which is adjusted for inflation) fell 0.2% in June. Real disposable incomes fell 2.6% in June after a 5.2% gain in May. Inflation surged in June. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.8% in June compared with May and is up 4.1% in the past year, the largest year-over-year inflation in 17 years.

[UpInArms]

68. Factory Orders up on Higher Prices

01. U.S. June factory shipments rise 1.6%
10:00 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

02. U.S. June inventory-shipment ratio falls to 1.22
10:00 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

03. U.S. June durable-goods orders 0.8%
10:00 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

04. U.S. June nondurable-goods shipments up 2.5%
10:00 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

05. U.S. June factory orders up 1.7% vs. 0.9% expected
10:00 AM ET, Aug 04, 2008

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-june-factory-orders-up/story.aspx?guid=%7B2D0165F9%2D9449%2D4ED1%2DB2FE%2D770658EF7910%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose 1.7% in June on stronger demand for machinery, metals, and electrical equipment, and on higher prices for petroleum, the Commerce Department reported Monday. The report was stronger than 0.9% gain anticipated by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Orders in May were revised higher to a 0.9% increase from 0.6%. Orders for durable goods rose 0.8% in June. Shipments and orders for nondurable goods increased 2.5%, largely on higher prices for petroleum, food, plastics, and chemicals.

[UpInArms]

5. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 73.332 Change -0.030 (-0.04%)

New Zealand's Economy in the Brink of Recession

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/DailyFX_Forecasts___We_Expect_1217520934667.html

Over the past decade, a substantial search for yield propelled by spare amounts of liquidity drove up exchange rates for many small open economies such as New Zealand. This environment helped to fuel a sharp increase in domestic asset prices but also made New Zealand’s economy more vulnerable to external shocks. Now, with the world economy slowing down, New Zealand is facing its biggest challenge in more than 20 years. They have been hit by a slowdown in global growth and by rising high energy and food prices. In fact, according to Statistics New Zealand, the economy shrank 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2008, largely due to the impact of higher energy prices, a drought on agriculture and a slowdown in construction and household spending. The widening of the current account deficit was mainly due to crude oil imports which surged 25 percent from a year earlier. However, energy prices are not the only cause to blame for New Zealand’s poor economic performance. Indeed, real household spending which has been the main driver of economic growth over the past few years, is now projected to contract over the next quarter. Despite the fiscal stimulus announced by the New Zealand’s government, record high mortgage rates and food price increases are reducing the amount of disposable income households have for discretionary spending. Moreover, several years of strong economic growth have contributed to an annual inflation running above 4 percent which fashioned higher wages but also made New Zealand’s products less competitive abroad. Currently, New Zealand runs a current account deficit equal to 7.8 per cent of gross domestic product and the trade deficit for the year to May was 4.8 billion dollars, up from 4.6 billion dollars in the year to April. Since foreign goods must be purchased using foreign currency such outflows may lead to a depreciation of New Zealand dollar unless countered by similar capital inflows. In addition, New Zealanders are very pessimistic regarding the future of their economy. According to a survey conducted by Westpac to 1,556 consumers on their personal finances, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since the 1991, adding to evidence that the economy is already in recession.

...more...

US Dollar Rally Could Falter If Fed Fails to Maintain Hawkish Bias

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Terri_Belkas__John_Kicklighter__David_1217814483838.html

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- Fed Announces Measures to Extend Tenure of Primary Dealer Credit and Term Securities Lending Facilities
- US GDP Rebounds 1.9% in Q2, But Downward Revisions Undermine Otherwise Positive News
- Non-farm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing Slightly Better Than Expected, Though Both Still Add Evidence Suggesting US Economic Recession

The US dollar has rallied significantly from its mid-July lows as consistently hawkish commentary by Federal Reserve officials has led traders to speculate over the central bank’s next move. As of Friday’s close, fed fund futures were only pricing in a mild 6.9 percent chance of a 25bp rate increase this coming Tuesday, as the markets are widely expecting the FOMC to leave rates steady at 2.00 percent. While CPI remains uncomfortably high, the US economy is still facing a major slowdown, as evidenced by the collapse of the housing sector and marked deterioration in the labor markets. However, this doesn’t mean that the US dollar can’t gain further. In fact, overnight index swaps are pricing in a whopping 75bps worth of rate hikes over the course of the next year, and if the FOMC’s policy statement focuses on “upside risks to inflation” rather than the economic slowdown and instability in the financial markets, traders will continue to bet on aggressive increases to the fed funds rate over the course of the next year. However this doesn't mean that the US Dollar can't go further. Ultimately, the fate of the dollar this week will depend far more on what the FOMC says, rather than what it does.

Other economic releases this week are likely to disappoint amidst weakening indicators that reflect American consumption habits. On Monday, personal income is forecasted to contract 0.2 percent, while personal spending growth may slow to a 0.5 percent pace. On Tuesday – well before the 14:15 EDT FOMC announcement – ISM non-manufacturing sector is estimated to fall to 48.0 from 48.2, signaling a contraction in business activity for the second consecutive month. This would be particularly dismal news for the US economy, as the non-manufacturing sector accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance. Nevertheless, the reaction of the US dollar on the release of these indicators may only look like a blip on the radar, as the FOMC’s policy statement will have the greatest bearing on where the currency goes next. - TB



...more...

[ozymandius]

29. Dollar flat as traders eye central banks

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded narrowly mixed Monday, showing little direction as the foreign-exchange market prepares for interest-rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.

.....

"With a whole raft of interest-rate verdicts due from the U.S., the U.K. and the euro zone later this week, any metric that relates to inflation certainly has the potential to carry the real momentum," said Gary Thomson, head of sales trading at CMC Markets.

All three of the central banks are expected to leave rates unchanged -- the Fed on Tuesday, and the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

"Any clues as to where the respective monetary policies go next may well be jumped upon by traders," Thomson said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-flat-foreign-exchange-traders-eye/story.aspx?guid=%7B80034710-1DB2-4EFE-9C74-758B1675313A%7D

[UpInArms]

6. Citigroup to be charged by Cuomo, faces SEC probe

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080802/bs_nm/citigroup_subpoenas_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo plans to imminently charge Citigroup Inc (C.N), accusing it of fraudulently marketing and selling auction-rate securities, and destroying documents that had been subpoenaed.

In a letter Friday to the bank, David Markowitz, chief of the state's investor protection bureau, accused the largest U.S. bank by assets of having "repeatedly and persistently committed fraud" by falsely representing to customers that auction-rate debt was safe, liquid and the equivalent of cash.

He also said Citigroup destroyed audiotapes of phone calls on auction-rate debt that were subject to an April 14 subpoena. The bank learned in mid-June about the destruction, but failed to tell Cuomo's office until June 30, the letter said.

Citi said in an e-mailed statement that recycling tapes is generally its practice. It inadvertently recycled a tape subject to the subpoena, but as soon as it learned it had, it stopped recycling tapes. "We reported this oversight to the regulators, and we have fully cooperated with them in all aspects of this investigation," the statement said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Citigroup to shut rest of Tribeca fund: report

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080804/bs_nm/citigroup_tribeca_dc

(Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N), the largest U.S. bank by assets, plans to close a $400 million convertible arbitrage fund in a final move to shut down its Tribeca Global Investments hedge fund, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the plans.

Tribeca Convertible LP is being shut after investor redemptions, and the fund's managers, Andrew Wang and Jeffry Chmielewski, are likely to leave Citigroup, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter.

<snip>

Convertible arbitrage funds look for relative value opportunities in convertible bonds, as well as emerging markets and price discrepancies in fixed income.

In September last year, Citigroup said it plans to close its $2.4 billion Tribeca Global Investments hedge fund.

...more at link...

[xyouth]

101. They learned this recycling trick from our friends in the White House

[ozymandius]

7. Oil steady near $125 on Gulf of Mexico storm

Oil prices were steady near $125 a barrel Monday as the market kept on eye on a tropical storm that could affect oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. Concerns that a showdown over Iran's nuclear program could threaten crude supplies out of the Middle East also buoyed up prices.

By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for September delivery fell 7 cents to $125.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.02 on Friday to settle at $125.10 a barrel.

In London, September Brent crude was up 29 cents at $124.47 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch Sunday for the coast of western Louisiana and eastern Texas, which means that hurricane conditions are possible from Tropical Storm Edouard within the next 24 hours in the area.

The fifth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season has sustained maximum winds of about 50 miles (80 kilometers) per hour. By Sunday night, Edouard was located about 80 miles (129 kilometers) east-southeast off the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 390 miles (630 kilometers) east of Galveston, Texas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

9. Big Oil's biggest quarter ever: $51.5B in all

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080801/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_oil?_ylt=AqnlVnRABgXk9dJjRjzQ5N.b.HQA

HOUSTON - Oil giants Chevron Corp. and Total SA wrapped up a string of gargantuan, record-breaking earnings reports Friday, a stretch in which six of the major international oil companies topped $50 billion in combined profit for the first time.

While the profits of unparalleled size have brought withering criticism from Washington and disgust from consumers across the country, very few were surprised. Crude prices during the second quarter were nearly double what they were a year ago.

Chevron said Friday its second-quarter profit rose 11 percent to a record $5.98 billion.

Revenue rose significantly to $82.9 billion from $56.1 billion a year ago.

<snip>

Like its competitors, Chevron made the bulk of its money at its exploration and production arm, also known as the upstream, where income nearly doubled from a year ago to $7.25 billion.

Chevron said the average sales price for crude and natural gas liquids was $109 a barrel in the quarter, up from $57 a barrel in the year-earlier period.

...more...

[AnneD]

19. There is no excuse for the price to go up....

It only barely became a low tropical depression/hurricane yesterday. Most modern rigs can withstand tropical depressions and it got past most of the rigs yesterday. Any excuse to screw folks:grr:

[Dr.Phool]

28. Do they really need an excuse anymore?

I think their last excuse was that a Harley was leaking oil on the pavement at a Hells Angels rally.

Stay safe. TWC just reported a hurricane watch for your neck of the woods.

[AnneD]

103. We had a beautiful red sunrise....

(blame it on the weather economist response) it is hot and sunny now.

I am letting hubby sleep undisturbed. Once it becomes afternoon, we'll secure things. I bought a bunch of bungee cords at the start of summer. We are in great shape. All hell is suspected to start breaking tomorrow. Folks have been buying water and bread. I went to the bank to deposit some checks. He said they had a few more folks taking out money. I think most folks are just sitting tight.

Edited to add: when I went to the bank, I saw a notice that they were taking Key CU. I ask a manager who was taking over whom. My CU is taking over Key (a good sign). Smart Financial has been acquiring credit unions. Ours was Houston First Educators CU when Smart took it over. Interesting twist.

[UpInArms]

8. Fannie, Freddie seen boosting loss estimates, again

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080801/bs_nm/fanniemae_freddiemac_outlook_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage market giants, Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N), may report further downgrades to their forecasts for credit losses in their upcoming second-quarter results, starting next week.

The government-sponsored enterprises have already warned investors that credit-related losses, such as payouts on loans they guarantee, would likely rise through 2008 as falling U.S. home prices aggravate defaults on mortgages.

But the collapse in the shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last month, which led to the U.S. Treasury and Congress extending them government support, suggests investors think the companies sorely underestimated the housing market debacle.

Since the two companies' May forecasts, the U.S. housing market has continued to deteriorate, leading credit rating agency Standard & Poor's this week to raise its loss estimates on risky loans which, in turn, may extend the vicious cycle of asset write-downs at banks.

<snip>

The new assumptions indicate up to $450 billion, or 85 percent, of "AAA" rated 2006 vintage subprime securities will default, and may lead to a raft of downgrades that pressure financial institutions to face a "new reality," said Vivek Tawadey, head of credit strategy at BNP Paribas in London.

...more...

[ozymandius]

10. Humana reports slight drop in 2Q earnings

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Health insurer Humana Inc. reported a slight drop in second-quarter profit Monday caused by a double-digit decline in premiums from its Medicare prescription drug plans, which offset solid growth in its Medicare Advantage and commercial segments.

Humana's results for the three months ended June 30 still outperformed Wall Street expectations, and the company raised its earnings-per-share projection for the full year.

.....

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected profit of $1.18 per share.

Second-quarter revenue rose 14 percent to $7.3 billion from $6.4 billion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080804/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_humana

[UpInArms]

11. U.S. retailer Boscov's files bankruptcy, may be sold

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0446028820080804

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. department store chain Boscov's Inc filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday and put itself up for sale, becoming the latest retailer to succumb to a weak economy and tight credit.

The Reading, Pennsylvania-based company and seven affiliates filed for protection from creditors with the U.S. bankruptcy court in Delaware. It had $538 million of assets and $479 million of liabilities as of May 3, a court filing shows.

Founded in 1911, Boscov's describes itself as the largest family-owned, full-service U.S. department store chain, with 49 locations in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York and Virginia. It said it employs about 9,500 people and had sales of $1.25 billion in the year ended February 2.

Michael Hughes, a Boscov's executive vice president, said in a court filing the company plans to close 10 unprofitable stores and is exploring a possible sale to a third party.

He said Boscov's was hurt as the housing market collapse, skyrocketing energy and gas prices and higher food costs caused consumers to spend less on discretionary items. Hughes also said tighter credit market conditions have caused many vendors to tighten credit terms.

"The recent addition of these pressures and constraints to a broadline retailing industry that already operated on thin profit margins has forced the debtors into inadequate liquidity levels," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. HSBC says too soon to call peak of U.S. bad debts

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWLA753020080804

LONDON (Reuters) - HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Europe's largest bank, said on Monday it was still too soon to say whether U.S. housing bad debts had peaked in the first half of the year, despite a slower rate of deterioration.

HSBC earlier reported a U.S. impairment charge of $6.8 billion, up 85 percent on the year but down from the previous six months and broadly in line with analysts forecasts.

"On the positive side, the rate of deterioration has definitely slowed, but we have had two quarters of seasonally good factors, with tax refund season at the beginning of the year and the fiscal stimulus package in the second quarter," HSBC Finance Director Douglas Flint told reporters.

He said the U.S. book was now exposed to the impact of rising fuel and food prices, rising unemployment and the threat of a full-blown recession.

...more...

[NMDemDist2]

20. ha! the storm is just starting, check out this graph

from DrHousingBubble (an excellent blog on the Real Estate mess)

we still haven't seen the worst of the toxic loans come home to roost



http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/a-lost-decade-of-housing-equity-los-angeles-and-orange-county-will-hit-a-housing-price-bottom-in-may-2011-seeing-may-2003-prices/

[ozymandius]

35. Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

.....

Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly. The higher bills come as home prices continue to decline and banks tighten their lending standards, making it harder for people to refinance loans or sell their homes. Of particular concern are “alt-A” loans, many of which were made to people with good credit scores without proof of their income or assets.

.....

In a conference call with analysts last month, James Dimon, the chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said he expected losses on prime loans at his bank to triple in the coming months and described the outlook for them as “terrible.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/business/04lend.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

[ozymandius]

42. HSBC Profit Fell 29% in First Six Months

HSBC Holdings, the biggest European bank, reported a 29 percent decline in profit for the first six months on Monday, saying that the business environment remained uncertain and that growth in emerging markets was expected to slow.

Net income fell to $7.7 billion, or 65 cents a share, from $10.9 billion, or 95 cents a share, in the first half of last year as loan impairment charges and other credit risk provisions increased 58 percent.

HSBC put aside $10.1 billion for loan losses this year, up from $6.3 billion in the first half of last year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/business/worldbusiness/05bank.html

[ozymandius]

13. Fed likely to hold rates steady amid crosscurrents

WASHINGTON - An ugly brew of rising unemployment, spiking foreclosures and gyrating energy prices is plaguing the country and making life difficult for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as he tries to right the economy.

Bernanke and his central bank colleagues are faced with dueling problems: weak economic growth and advancing inflation. To treat one risks aggravating the other. So the Fed is widely expected when it meets Tuesday to leave a key interest rate alone.

"It is caught between a rock and a hard place. The (Fed) will stand pat," predicted Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University Channel Islands.

If Sohn and other economists prove correct, the Fed's rate will stay at 2 percent. And, in turn, the prime lending rate for millions of consumers and businesses would stay at 5 percent. The prime rate applies to certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other lines.

.....

Still, many expect the Fed at its meeting Tuesday to keep up its tough anti-inflation talk. That's aimed at controlling inflation expectations of consumers, investors and businesses. If those groups think prices will keep on rising, they'll act in ways that can make inflation worse.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080804/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates

[UpInArms]

14. Stagflation stifles Fed, ECB, BoE

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080804/bs_nm/economy_weekahead_outlook_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The specter of stagflation will likely keep the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England from changing short term interest rates this week, and their hands may be tied for some time as economic growth slows but inflation remains high.

The $20 per barrel decline in crude oil prices since mid-July has quieted, but not silenced, the anti-inflation rhetoric. All three central banks are on alert for any sign that high fuel and food prices are translating into higher wage demands which could set off an inflationary spiral reminiscent of the 1970s.

But barring another oil price spike like the one that drove prices up by some 50 percent in the previous six months, the ECB and BoE seem content to hold borrowing costs steady through the end of the year. A Reuters poll of economists showed that most expected no change in ECB or BoE interest rates until the first quarter of 2009 at the earliest.

Indeed, the next move in short term interest rates for the ECB and BoE is likely to be down, despite rising inflation rates.

...more...

[ozymandius]

16. S&P emails slammed mortgage debt products: report (hat-tip UpInArms)

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Analysts at Standard & Poor's Rating Services warned against mortgage-related debt products in internal e-mails that, in one case, called the complex financial deals "ridiculous," the Wall Street Journal reported in its weekend edition.

......

In one email message, an S&P analyst called a mortgage or structured finance deal "ridiculous" and wrote "we should not be rating it."

In another email, an S&P manager said ratings agencies were helping to create an "even bigger monster -- the CDO (collateralized debt obligation) market. Let's hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of card falters."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080802/bs_nm/sec_creditraters_journal_dc

[Tansy_Gold]

66. My rubber stamp

[ozymandius]

81. Seven Stock Blunders (a good ITYS file from the Big Picture)

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/seven-stock-blu.html

Along the lines of our earlier post is this nice round up of investing/trading errors via Glenn Curtis:

Ignorance may be bliss, but not knowing why your stocks are failing and money is disappearing from your pockets is a long way from paradise:

1. Ignoring Catalysts

2. Catching the Falling Knife

3. Failing to Consider Macroeconomic Variables

4. Forgetting About Dilution

5. Not Recognizing Seasonal Fluctuations

6. Missing Sector Trends

7. Avoiding Technical Trends

Glenn goes into details on each of these in the full article.

[UpInArms]

17. Weird sort of autopsy on Bear Stearns

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080804/bs_nm/bearstearns_fortune_dc

<snipping to the interesting part (for me anyway)>

Cayne, whose hands-off management style gave subordinates such as co-President Warren Spector free rein to run the business, in August forced out his potential successor and began hunting for capital.

Cayne secretly made several trips to China to strike a cross-investment deal with China's state-controlled CITIC Securities. He convinced investor Joe Lewis in September to buy a stake, a $1 billion bet that would be wiped out within months.

When Cayne returned from his hospital stay, Bear was vulnerable. Talks to sell equity to KKR, Fortress Investment Group, JC Flowers & Co and other firms fell through.

Finally the bank's woes, combined with stories that Cayne was frequently out on golf and bridge outings, caught up with him. Cayne was forced to relinquish his CEO role in January, but remained chairman.

"I didn't stop it," Cayne acknowledged, speaking of his role in the firm's demise. "I didn't rein in the leverage."

Fortune observed the firm left itself vulnerable because it relied too heavily on overnight "repo" financing from banks and funds.

In the firm's final days, Cayne said he was in the dark about Bear's weakened state. He was playing at a Detroit bridge tournament when trading clients began fleeing in March and did not know the depth of the firm's cash crisis until March 13.

It wasn't until he returned to Bear's New York offices on March 15 that he learned the Federal Reserve had arranged a bailout and that JPMorgan was its only savior. Cayne resigned himself to JPMorgan's offer of $2 a share.

...more...

question:

Is the fed making the banks more vulnerable by using that TSAF window?

[antigop]

57. Rhetorical question: Do we think the Fed knows what it is doing? n/t

[UpInArms]

18. Rich begin feeling the pain in down economy (cross-post)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080804/ap_on_bi_ge/wealthy_spending

The rich are sharing your financial pain — and contributing to it.

It may have taken longer and it may not be as acute, but there are early hints that the economic slump is crimping the lifestyles of the wealthy.

They are investing more conservatively, spending less on luxury goods and are being more thrifty with their credit cards. Many are asking their personal shoppers and private-jet travel providers to seek the best deals rather than over-the-top extravagances.

That news may produce a shrug from many people who have lost their jobs or homes in this economy. The problem is that when the wealthy get stingy, it trickles down to the rest of us.

<snip>

"People are examining, 'Do you keep the yacht, do you go to the classic car auction, do you take the private jet?'" said Joseph Montgomery, managing director of investments at Wachovia Securities. "Those sound like nice problems to have, but at the same time, they are issues."

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. US STOCKS-Futures drop as bank jitters weigh

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0446380720080804?sp=true

* HSBC's profit slide spotlights US housing fallout

* Oil prices steady, with Iran jitters in focus

* Citigroup to close $400 mln convertible arbitrage fund

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures slipped on Monday as a first-half profit slide from HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Europe's largest bank, added to worries about the financial sector arising from the U.S. housing slump.

Concerns that losses will hurt U.S. economic growth hit shares in Asia overnight where Japan's Nikkei index fell 1.2 percent, and in Europe where bank shares led declines.

Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is among stocks to watch following news that the largest U.S. bank planned to close a $400 million convertible arbitrage fund.

A Barron's newspaper report said that the United States is in the early stages of a recession that will last for at least 18 months and help cause hundreds of banks to fail, according to New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini. For details, see

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Yes, That's $2 Trillion of Debt-Related Losses

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121763156934206007.html?mod=9_0002_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_left

before the first temple's destruction, the warnings of economist Nouriel Roubini fell on deaf ears. For the past two years Roubini, a professor at New York University, has cautioned about a huge housing bubble whose bursting would lead to a 20% drop in home prices; a collapse in subprime mortgages; a severe banking crisis and credit crunch; the near-failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and a U.S. recession of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression. So far, this latter-day prophet of doom has been on the mark, ...


• THE FULL BARRON'S ARTICLE IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS....

Here's the Reuters version:

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0344130720080803?sp=true

Hundreds of banks will fail, Roubini tells Barron's

NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The United States is in the second inning of a recession that will last for at least 18 months and help kill off hundreds of banks, influential economist and New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini told Barron's in Sunday's edition.

Taxpayers will pay a big price for helping bail out the rest of the financial services industry as well, Roubini said -- at least $1 trillion and more likely $2 trillion.

The banks will become insolvent because of mounting losses as a result of the housing bust and because they have only written down their subprime loans so far, he said. Still in front of them are their consumer-credit losses, for which they lack the reserves, Barron's reported.

He also said there are hundreds of millions of dollars outstanding in home-equity loans that could be worth zero, too.

U.S. consumers, meanwhile, are "shopped out" and saving less, while the Federal Reserve's performance in handling the crisis has been poor, Roubini said, because it failed to see that the problem extended beyond subprime mortgage debt.

Now, Roubini told Barron's, the government is overregulating, bailing out troubled participants and intervening in every market.

"The regulators should investigate themselves for bailing out Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the creditors of Bear Stearns and the financial system with new lending facilities. They have swapped U.S. Treasury bonds for toxic securities," he told Barron's. "It is privatizing the gains and profits, and socializing the losses as usual. This is socialism for Wall Street and the rich."

...more...

edited for bad html

[Ghost Dog]

84. Asian Stocks Fall to Lowest Since Oct. 2006

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell to the lowest in almost two years, led by transport companies, after Nissan Motor Co.'s earnings dropped and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. said a customer canceled an order.

Nissan, Japan's No. 3 automaker, declined the most in more than four months. Olympus Corp. slumped after profit decreased the most in almost three years. Daewoo Shipbuilding led losses in Seoul on concern that slowing growth may prompt more customers to scrap ship purchases, ending five years of record orders for shipyards. BHP Billiton Ltd. retreated after copper sank the most in three weeks.

``We expect corporate earnings to stay weak for the rest of 2008 in Asia,'' said Diane Lin, Sydney-based portfolio manager at Pengana Capital, which oversees about $1.9 billion. Exporters ``such as Japanese and Korean automakers will see a challenging second half,'' she said.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index lost 1.6 percent to 128.50 at 7:16 p.m. in Tokyo, adding to its 1.3 percent decline on Aug. 1. About five stocks retreated for every two that gained on the index, which was set for its lowest close since Oct. 4, 2006.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.2 percent to 12,933.18, its lowest close since July 18. China's CSI 300 Index retreated 2.4 percent. Most other Asian stock markets dropped.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aivHDY0EEUpU&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

89. European shares fall at midday

FRANKFURT, Aug 4 (Reuters) - European shares traded lower by midday on Monday, adding to the previous week's declines, as results from Europe's biggest bank, HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), weighed down financial stocks and offset gains in oil majors.

HSBC fell 2.2 percent after it said its first-half profit fell 28 percent, in line with forecasts, as a $14 billion hit on bad debts on U.S. home loans and asset writedowns offset strong Asian growth.

The DJ Stoxx European banking index fell 1.7 percent.

By 1115 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was down 0.4 percent at 1,159.56 points, after falling 0.5 percent last week.

...

Financial stocks fell after results from HSBC and Belgian-Dutch Fortis (FOR.AS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (FOR.BR: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and were the strongest negative weight on the pan-European index.

BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 2.8 percent, UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) fell 4.2 percent and Banco Santander (SAN.MC: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) dropped 2 percent.

"It is becoming more and more obvious that we will feel the effects from the crisis for several more quarters rather than months, as many knock-on effects have just begun to put additional pressure on the market," UniCredit analysts said.

Mining stocks fell in concert with declining metal prices.

...

Britain's FTSE 100 index .FTSE fell 0.1 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI fell almost 1 percent and France's CAC 40 .FCHI declined 0.3 percent.

Major oil stocks gained as the oil price steadied below $126 a barrel due to a tropical storm that may threaten oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and to concerns over OPEC producer Iran's nuclear programme.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL423033220080804?rpc=44&sp=true

[UpInArms]

24. July planned layoffs rise 26 pct vs. June: survey

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSNAT00425220080804?sp-true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Planned layoffs at U.S. companies jumped 26 percent in July from June, depicting further deterioration in the labor market, a report showed on Monday.

Planned layoffs at U.S. companies totaled 103,312 in July, compared with June's 81,755, employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc said.

Announced job cuts at U.S. companies last month were the second highest total so far in 2008, more than double the 42,897 a year earlier, the report said.

The transportation industry hurt by sky-high fuel costs accounted for the most planned cuts in July with 17,051. The financial sector battered by the credit crisis followed with 15,517 cuts. Retailers facing a pullback in consumer spending came next with 12,160 layoffs.

Airlines have been responsible for the bulk of the planned layoffs in transportation sector, which has been squeezed by expensive fuel, according to John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

"At the same time, many cash-strapped Americans are increasingly frustrated by higher ticket prices, baggage fees, airport delays and canceled flights that they are simply forgoing vacations that require air travel and staying closer to home," Challenger said in a statement.

From January to July, planned layoffs totaled 579,260, up 33 percent from the same period a year ago.

...more...

[radfringe]

31. He'll give you a daisy a day, dear

http://stone-waves.blogspot.com/

[ozymandius]

34. That puts McSame's obfuscation into black-and-white terms.

Wonderful work! :thumbsup:

[UpInArms]

33. Companies Tap Pension Plans To Fund Executive Benefits

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121761989739205497.html?mod=mktw

At a time when scores of companies are freezing pensions for their workers, some are quietly converting their pension plans into resources to finance their executives' retirement benefits and pay.

In recent years, companies from Intel Corp. to CenturyTel Inc. collectively have moved hundreds of millions of dollars of obligations for executive benefits into rank-and-file pension plans. This lets companies capture tax breaks intended for pensions of regular workers and use them to pay for executives' supplemental benefits and compensation.

The practice has drawn scant notice. A close examination by The Wall Street Journal shows how it works and reveals that the maneuver, besides being a dubious use of tax law, risks harming regular workers. It can drain assets from pension plans and make them more likely to fail. Now, with the current bear market in stocks weakening many pension plans, this practice could put more in jeopardy.

How many is impossible to tell. Neither the Internal Revenue Service nor other agencies track this maneuver. Employers generally reveal little about it. Some benefits consultants have warned them not to, in order to forestall a backlash by regulators and lower-level workers.

The background: Federal law encourages employers to offer pensions by giving companies a tax deduction when they contribute cash to a pension plan, and by letting the money in the plan grow tax free. Executives, like anyone else, can participate in these plans.

...more...

[ozymandius]

40. This makes me sick.

Here's another exercise in private gain/social loss. So which beneficiary will realize the greatest percentage gain from the pension fund? I doubt the benefits will shower anyone outside the executive circle.

[Demeter]

118. Ozy, Private Gain+Social Loss=Grand Theft

Every instance of such a result is evidence of a white collar crime. We are a lawless nation now.

[DemReadingDU]

41. This should be illegal

another way to steal employee pensions for the benefit of executives

:mad:

[Dr.Phool]

44. This is absolutely criminal.

No more comment, because the string of expletives going through my mind right now would cause a sailor to faint.

[Joanne98]

47. Greedy ass bastards. We need hearings on this!

[wordpix]

72. yes we do!

[MattSh]

77. What? Not ready for torches and pitchforks YET?

Hearings? We don't need no stinking hearings.

[wordpix]

78. I like your approach

[antigop]

55. More info on QSERPs here....

http://watsonwyatt.com/us/pubs/insider/showarticle.asp?ArticleID=7098

QSERPs: What Are They?

QSERPs are enhanced executive benefits, similar to those provided by executive top hat or excess benefit plans, except that QSERPs are provided through a qualified retirement plan. For that reason, these benefits have several advantages over traditional executive benefit arrangements:

* the plan sponsor can prefund the benefits on a tax-favored basis
* the executive incurs no tax liability (not even FICA) until benefits are actually distributed
* when benefits are distributed, tax-saving options, such as IRA rollovers, may be available
* benefits provided via a qualified plan are much more secure than those offered via typical unfunded arrangements

Finally, QSERPs provided through overfunded defined benefit plans are funded from existing excess assets, so employers don't need to make additional contributions.

[antigop]

58. "taxpayers helped finance Intel's executive compensation." So what else is new? n/t

[wordpix]

71. not surprised but still OMG re these fucking corporate greedmongers!

:grr:

[UpInArms]

36. Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/business/04lend.html?_r=2&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

The mortgage troubles have been exacerbated by an economy that is still struggling. Reports last week showed another drop in home prices, slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high.

While it is difficult to draw precise parallels among various segments of the mortgage market, the arc of the crisis in subprime loans suggests that the problems in the broader market may not peak for another year or two, analysts said.

Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly. The higher bills come as home prices continue to decline and banks tighten their lending standards, making it harder for people to refinance loans or sell their homes. Of particular concern are “alt-A” loans, many of which were made to people with good credit scores without proof of their income or assets.

“Subprime was the tip of the iceberg,” said Thomas H. Atteberry, president of First Pacific Advisors, a investment firm in Los Angeles that trades mortgage securities. “Prime will be far bigger in its impact.”

...more...

[Pale Blue Dot]

43. Layoffs 8/4

Good morning everyone. I hope you all had a great weekend.

City of Columbus - 42 jobs lost

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Mayor Coleman is having to layoff 42 workers by the end of September in order to keep the 2008 city budget in the black.

The layoffs come the same day the City of Columbus announced that halfway through the year; the financial picture is bleak and getting worse.

Columbus Finance Director Joel Taylor tells NBC 4 that income tax revenue is projected to fall $8 million dollars short of what was budgeted for 2008. The shortfall is being blamed on fewer people with jobs and lower wages for those who do have jobs.
http://www.nbc4i.com/midwest/cmh/politics.apx.-content-articles-CMH-2008-08-01-0026.html

Toledo Molding & Die - Toledo, OH - 70 jobs (temporarily?)lost

DELPHOS — Approximately 70 Toledo Molding and Die hourly employees will have August off after receiving temporary layoff notices this week.

Operations Manager Jack Ruhe said the company will start recalling the workers at the end of August.

“We were just awarded several significant contracts from our competitors that we will start on in September and we will have significant content in the new Ford F-150 pick up trucks, so these workers will be coming back very soon,” Ruhe said. “The overall slowdown in truck and SUV sales has prompted us to trim down the work force for about four weeks.”
http://www.delphosherald.com/2008/08/01/tmd-to-lay-off-70/

Boise Cascade - Island City, OR - 30 jobs lost

LA GRANDE, Ore. (AP) — Boise Cascade says it plans to lay off 30 workers at an Island City particleboard plant and curtail a shift at its La Grande sawmill.

The company cited a distressed pine lumber market for the cutbacks.

Boise Cascade says it tried to avoid the layoffs because of the impact on a small community but the market downturn was too steep.
http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash/regional/index.ssf?/base/news-26/1217701445195460.xml&storylist=orlocal

City of Detroit, MI - 1,300 jobs potentially lost

DETROIT - Detroit has begun to notify city employee unions that layoffs are planned after an agreement stalled to raise $65 million by selling the city's half of the Detroit-Windsor Tunnel.

Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's spokeswoman Denise Tolliver told the Detroit Free Press and The Detroit News that the city hasn't specified how many would be laid off, but the cuts are expected at the end of September.

Letters were sent out Friday.

The mayor's office had said the failure of the tunnel sale could force upward of 1,300 city workers and cuts to city services, but later indicated that the estimate likely was too high.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-mi-detroitlayoffs,0,2247950.story

Lee County, FL - 20 jobs lost

The sluggish building economy pushed Lee County’s community development department Friday to lay off 20 employees. It’s the department’s second set of layoffs in six months.

No more cuts are imminent, said Mary Gibbs, department director.

“But it really just depends on the economy,” Gibbs said.

“Of course it is bad for morale. Everybody is worried because there is no stability and it is tough to focus on your work because you don’t know if you will have a job or not.
Everybody is pulling together.”
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080801/NEWS01/80801023

Palm Drive Hospital - Sebastopol, CA - 10 jobs lost

Palm Drive hospital in Sebastopol has eliminated 10 full- and part-time positions and cut the hours for nearly 30 other workers in what officials describe as a necessary step for the publicly owned facility to emerge from bankruptcy protection.

The work reductions occurred as the number of the hospital’s patients recently decreased, though officials said that the counts are normally lower in summer than during winter flu season.

As well, the action comes days before Palm Drive is scheduled to ask the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors for a $3 million short-term loan. The loan would allow the hospital to pay off creditors, emerge from bankruptcy protection and issue revenue bonds that would allow for needed capital improvements.

“This is something that needed to be done,” hospital board President Linda J. Johnson said of the layoffs. “We can’t go three to four months with high staffing and low (patient) census.”
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20080801/NEWS/752022014&title=_font_color__990000_Update__font__Layoffs_at_Sebastopol_s_Palm_Drive_Hospital

Lockheed Martin - Michoud, NO - "several hundred" jobs lost

BREVARD COUNTY -- The 2,400 workers who build the space shuttle's external tanks are on layoff notice.

Lockheed Martin told the workers this week several hundred would be laid off by the end of the year, and a series of job reductions will continue through NASA's last shuttle flight, in 2010.

The vast majority of the workers are stationed at NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility, in New Orleans.

The final 10 tanks are in various stages of production. Two of those are to be shipped to Kennedy Space Center by the end of the year.
http://www.cfnews13.com/Space/DestinationSpace/2008/8/2/shuttle_tank_builders_on_layoff_notice.html

Armstrong World Industries - Beverly, WV - 95 jobs lost

BEVERLY -- Armstrong World Industries plans to lay off up to 12 percent of the work force at its Randolph County flooring plant.

Meg Graham, a spokeswoman for the Lancaster, Pa.-based manufacturer, blames declines in the U.S. residential construction market for the layoffs of as many as 95 workers. The layoffs include both salaried and hourly employees.

Armstrong makes flooring, ceiling and cabinet products. Graham says the mill and finish lines at the Beverly plant have operated on four-day weeks for several months.

Armstrong employs nearly 800 people at the Beverly plant.
http://www.dailymail.com/Business/200808040065

San Francisco Chronicle - 124 jobs lost

In another blow to the local newspaper industry, the San Francisco Chronicle just announced 125 employees will be cut through voluntary buyouts. The buyouts, which will effect all departments and include management, will be officially offered on Monday, August 4.

The buyout packages will be similar to those offered to employees last year. They include two weeks pay per year of service, with a minimum of 4 weeks and a maximum of 52 weeks.

Last year, the Chronicle laid off about 100 employees of which about 70 were members of the Northern California Media Workers Guild.

"They're cutting deep into muscle, sinew and bone now," says Guild representative Carl Hall. "It seems like the entire industry is in a death spiral."
http://blogs.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2008/08/san_francisco_chronicle_to_cut.php

Diamond Glass - Kingston, PA - 165 jobs lost

A big employer in Luzerne County is cutting jobs. Diamond glass in Kingston is laying off 165 workers.

The factory makes windshields for vehicles.

Belron U.S. is an auto glass company based in Ohio. About a month ago, that company purchased Diamond Glass and now, the local office is laying off 165 people.

Company officials said about 320 people work at the building in Kingston. Some in the Diamond Glass call center, others in the corporate headquarters.
http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=8767308&nav=5ka4TEh5

Eaton Corp - Kearney, NE - 48 jobs (temporarily?) lost

(8/01/2008) By James Wilcox - The Eaton Corporation in Kearney is laying off dozens of employees. The company said the move is temporary and the workers will get their jobs back. Starting Monday some 48 employees will be out of work.

The company makes parts for SUV's and trucks.

Eaton said high fuel prices have cut demand for the vehicles slowing production for the company.

This is the second layoff at the plant in about 4 months.

Nearly 50 employees were laid off in March.
http://new.khastv.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=14055&storytopic=4

[Pale Blue Dot]

65. From the blog "Newspaper Death Watch": Many more newspaper layoffs.

Layoff Log

* The Newark Star-Ledger is looking to cut 200 jobs, or about 15% of its 1,400-person payroll, through buyouts, according to publisher Advance Publications. If it doesn’t hit that goal, the paper will go up for sale. Editor & Publisher’s Joe Strupp says the paper’s troubles symbolize how bad things have gotten in the industry. The Star-Ledger dominated New Jersey life, he says, and the paper was so fat and happy that it didn’t even see the need to invest in its online properties until recently. Strupp quotes one reporter as saying that news of the extent of the Star-Ledger’s problems come as “a punch in the gut.” Advance is also seeking to wrest concessions from the union that represents about 750 employees.
* Times are tough in Idaho. The Press-Tribune of Nampa will lay off 16 employees, or about 10% of its staff, and leave an unspecified number of vacant positions unfilled. The move comes a month after the Boise Stateman laid off 16 people and cut another 22 pressroom positions by combining printing operations. Lee Enterprises will combine five Idaho daily and weekly papers into one daily - the Times-News - and lay off 14 people, or about 12% of the total staff. The move sounds sensible, given that two of the weeklies had circulations of less than 600.
* Another Lee property, the Munster (Ind.) Times, has laid off 12 employees and cut an unspecified number of additional positions through attrition. The story in the Gary Post-Tribune didn’t say how many people the Times employs.
* The Bozeman (Mt.) Daily Chronicle will lay off six full-time and three part-time employees and hold nine vacant positions open. Five of the affected positions are in the newsroom.
* The Des Moines Register may also announce some job cuts soon, internal sources told the Iowa Independent. Specifics were hard to come by, however. Management raised the possibility as part of a standard staff meeting and didn’t elaborate. The paper, which dominates the Iowa market, has about 200 editorial staffers.

http://www.newspaperdeathwatch.com/2008/08/04/washington-post-co-sees-red/

[ozymandius]

45. Fortis profits fall 41% in first half

Belgian-Dutch banking group Fortis today reported a 41% drop in first-half profits after taking a hit from the ongoing turmoil in credit markets.

Net profits plunged to €1.6bn from €2.8bn in the first six months of last year as Belgium's biggest bank took a €591m hit from the credit crunch. Excluding this impact, profits were still down 21%.

.....

Last month Fortis caved in to shareholder pressure and announced its chief executive, Jean-Paul Votron, was stepping down, due to problems related to the US sub-prime crisis. Last autumn the bank undertook Europe's second largest rights issue, of €13.4bn, to fund its €24bn acquisition of ABN Amro's retail and wealth management activities, in a takeover led by Royal Bank of Scotland. The consortium that bought ABN for €71bn, which also included Spain's Santander, has been criticised for overpaying for the Dutch bank at a time when the global credit crisis started to unfold.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/aug/04/fortis.banks

[antigop]

46. WSJ: Companies tap pension plans to fund executive benefits

Hat tip to DU poster EV_ares who posted a link to this article last night.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3726326&mesg_id=3726326

However, the link was to the WSJ website that requires a subscription. You may be able to get the whole article here without subscription:
http://www.efinancialnews.com/assetmanagement/index/content/2451435782

I wasn't able to copy/paste from the efinancialnews.com website. Sorry....

<Update> After going back to the efinancialnews.com website, I could not retrieve the entire article. I had to have a subscription there as well.

Sorry....

[ozymandius]

49. See post #33 for further details. n/t

[antigop]

51. Sorry, I think we were posting around the same time. But the WSJ link requires a subscription

when I go to it.

I was able to get the full article on the efinancial news website, but then when I went back, it required a subscription as well.

Not sure what the deal is...

[ozymandius]

52. I frequently run into that issue too.

I often use Google Finance to find major stories. You will find subscription-only links there but with free alternatives.

[antigop]

53. That's how I found the efinancialnews copy. But then I had the same problem when I went back to it.

ARGGGHHHHH....


So sorry...

[DemReadingDU]

60. For now, I can access the entire WSJ article

I often encounter problems accessing WSJ articles being subscription only. But I can access this, for now. It's a 4-page article, and graphs too.

[antigop]

64. OK, now the link works for me, too, w/o subscription required. GEEZ!

So sorry, this is infuriating.

[ozymandius]

48. big banking losses = futures down by a wink

09:14 ET
S&P futures vs fair value: -2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.5.

08:59 ET
S&P futures vs fair value: -3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Futures continue to suggest a lower start to the session, and are trading near their recently reached session lows. Topping corporate headlines this morning is a Wall Street Journal report that Time Warner (TWX) may soon announce that it has completed steps to separate itself from AOL, a Reuters report that Verizon (VZ) and two unions continued talks after a labor contract covering 65,000 workers expired and a Bloomberg.com report that Citigroup (C) will shut down the rest of its Tribeca hedge fund.

08:30 ET
S&P futures vs fair value: -2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Futures have a muted response upon the release of a mixed June personal income and spending report. Month-over-month, personal income rose 0.1% (-0.2% consensus), personal spending increased 0.6% (+0.4% consensus) and core PCE rose 0.3% -- the Fed's preferred inflation measure -- rose (+0.2% consensus).

[ozymandius]

50. opening bell

Dow 11,326.32 Down 51.70 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,309.75 Down 1.21 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,260.16 Down 0.15 (0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 3.9810% Up 0.0330

[ozymandius]

54. 9:40 numbers and blather

Dow 11,284.80 Down 41.52 (0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,301.22 Down 9.74 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,254.64 Down 5.67 (0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 3.976% Up 0.028

09:35 am : The stock market kicks of the week on a slightly lower note, as the futures market suggested. The Nasdaq is underperforming in the early-going.

This mornings big item was the July personal income and spending report. Spending and income both posted slightly better-than-expected gains, although this was offset by a slightly higher-than-expected core PCE reading -- the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

Corporate news has been on the light side, and the market is leaning toward a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed's rate decision tomorrow at 2:15 ET. The feds fund rate is widely expected to be left unchanged at 2.00%, so the wording of the Fed's directive will act as the main trading catalyst.DJ30 -17.10 NASDAQ -13.14 SP500 -3.30

[Pale Blue Dot]

56. Disney theme park ticket prices to rise

LOS ANGELES - As if rising gas and food prices weren’t enough, a ticket to the Magic Kingdom will soon cost a few bucks more.

The Walt Disney Co. said Friday it is raising one-day ticket prices at its domestic parks starting Sunday.

Tickets for those aged 10 and older to Walt Disney World in Orlando, Fla., will rise from $71 to $75, while tickets for children aged 3 to 9 will go from $60 to $63.

At Disneyland in Anaheim, Calif., one-day prices will rise from $66 to $69 for those aged 10 and older, and from $56 to $59 for children aged 3 to 9.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26007598/

Maybe now people will listen to us about the economy! :sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

61. Disney theme park attendance numbers to fall

Just my prediction: which, with one dollar, will buy you a six ounce cup of coffee somewhere.

[ozymandius]

67. Oh.. looky! Evidence!

Tourism rises globally, but not to U.S.

The world's long-haul international travelers have jumped by 35 million since 2000, yet America has been largely overlooked by those new travelers, despite favorable exchange rates resulting from a weak dollar and attractions like Disney World and the Grand Canyon. In fact, the annual number of foreign visitors to the US is about 2 million lower than in 2000, leading travel-industry experts to figure that from 2000 to 2007, the US economy took a hit of about $150 billion... Foreign visitors to Orlando, Fla., dropped by one-third from 2000 to 2006; by nearly 40 percent over the same period to Anaheim, Calif. (read Disneyland); and by 22 percent to Las Vegas, a frequent entry point for foreigners to the Southwest... in all 50 states, travel and tourism figure somewhere among the top four industries by economic impact.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0729/p01s04-ussc.html

[wordpix]

74. why would travelers want to visit tacky, ugly Parking Lot Nation with its miles of strips and malls?

Developers and their Congressionalpresidential cronies have turned the land into one big colossal ugly mess. You can't even escape it in the national parks and wildlife refuges, where a lot of development is allowed both inside and on the edges.

[CatholicEdHead]

88. Also hard to get across the border

In that many more international travelers are hassled more by the TSA when trying to get through customs. Our paranoia is not good for business.

[Demeter]

119. And Psychotic Law Enforcement at All Levels

[Dr.Phool]

80. Do you have any idea what cheese costs nowadays?

And that big rat eats a lot of it!

[ozymandius]

83. I hear he's stuffing his big gob with domestic only.

A weak dollar has made imports impossible.

[ozymandius]

59. Standard & Poor’s predicts a further...loss of $60,000 dollars per average home

The article compares US and UK projected real estate valuations. Then the author extrapolates lines from there.

Now, remember, a few days ago, Meredith Whitney said that even a return to 2002-2003 home price levels in the US is "mathematically impossible", i.e. prices will go below what they were then (33% lower than the 2006-2007 peak).

She based that on the fact that 85% of the capital involved since 2000 was provided by mortgage securitization, and that instrument has now largely disappeared. Hence: there is no equity left in the system, whether it’s real or virtual. As Whitney stated, all equity that is now raised is used only to plug the holes that were created prior.

UK price levels in 2002-2003 were also about 33% lower, at least. And in Britain the mathematical possibility -and likelihood- follow the same pattern as that in the US. In other words, British prices also MUST come down more than 33%. UK banks are beyond life support, hanging on by their toe-nails, and not capable of lending: mortgage approvals are down 68%! Standard & Poor’s predicts a further 17% fall in the next 8 months, a loss of $60.000 dollars per average home, $7500 per month, or about $250 every single day.....

Logic and history dictate that prices must come down by 50% in the US and over 60% in the UK, just to get back to where they came from. However, that is still not the whole story: a large trendline-breaking upswing in a system is typically followed by an even larger downswing.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2008/08/debt-rattle-august-3-2008-awful-news.html

[DemReadingDU]

62. More about Meredith Whitney

from another of my favorite blogs...

Edit to add the portion about Meredith Whitney from a couple days ago

8/1/08
Ilargi: In a CBNC interview, analyst Meredith Whitney gives her view of the credit and housing crisis, touching on a wide range of aspects. I think this is an important interview, because she makes a number of statements that contradict many claims and predictions published by the "respected" media on a daily basis. Even so, she very clearly looks to be holding back in what she says.

Still, while blogs may not always be taken seriously, an attitude that increasingly proves to be just plain wrong, Meredith Whitney cannot just as easily be shoved aside. It’s hard to name a high-level analyst on Wall Street with more credibilty than she has.

Here are some of the things she says:

* Merrill Lynch’s sale of $30.6 billion of its CDO’s will be a blueprint for all other financial institutions that own such instruments.
* 25 financial institutions will need to raise additional capital at some point this year.
* All the equity raised presently just serves to plug holes; it doesn’t improve banks’ financial positions.
* Stocks in financials will not rebound for at least 3 years.
* Fannie and Freddie are in the same quagmire as all the rest, they're just bigger.

While, as Whitney says, the Case/Shiller index predicts a 33% drop in residential real estate prices, and most other predictions claim an even - often much- smaller decline, she is sure it will be worse than 33%. She doesn’t say how much worse, but calls lesser claims "bad math".

Her reasoning is as follows:

* Since 2000, 85% of the liquidity in the US housing market has come from securitization. From 2005-2007, $2.5 trilllion worth of mortgages was securitized.
* Today, obviously, mortgage backed securities hardly find buyers. That is, except for Fannie and Freddie.
* A 33% drop in home prices would lead us back to the price level of 2002-2003. However, homeownership was higher then, and the securities trade was blooming.
* Today, banks have less capital, since their shares have lost 50% or more of their value. This will inevitable lead to less lending, which leads to less buyers, which results in lower housing prices.

Whitney therefore states that a drop in prices of 33% or less is not just unlikely, it is mathematically impossible.

Keep that in mind the next time you hear or read claims to the contrary: home prices will fall by more than 33%, and shares in financials won’t bounce back until 2012 at the earliest.

If you must, feel free to ignore my prediction for a drop in real estate prices by 80% or more; until it happens, that is. You will see.

Ignore Whitney at your own peril.
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2008/08/debt-rattle-august-1-2008-bad-math.html

video
Maria Bartiromo with Meredith Whitney, executive director of equity research at Oppenheimer, discussing what's in store for the financial sector.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964&play=1

[DemReadingDU]

104. Meredith Whitney: Credit crunch far from over

8/4/08 The star analyst tells Fortune magazine that housing woes will force banks to keep taking writedowns. by By Jon Birger, senior writer

The credit crisis is far from over, star analyst Meredith Whitney tells Fortune magazine in its upcoming issue.

Whitney, who audaciously - and correctly - predicted last October that Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) would have to cut its dividend, tells the magazine that banks in general today are still facing much bigger credit losses than what they've reported so far.

The Oppenheimer & Co. analyst warned last year - and continues to warn today - that the "incestuous" relationship between the banks and the credit-rating agencies during the real estate bubble will have a long-lasting impact on banks' ability to recover.

For years the ratings agencies, which are paid by the issuers of bonds, gave high marks to securities backed by subprime mortgages. Many of those bonds, of course, turned out to be anything but safe.


She also argues that banks need to "get real" about how they're valuing their problem mortgage-related debt, much as Merrill Lynch has now done. Merrill recently sold a large package of toxic mortgage debt for just 22 cents on the dollar.

Whitney's idea of "real" is pretty drastic. Whereas most banks are estimating 20% to 25% peak-to-trough declines in housing prices, the Case-Shiller housing futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange portend a much steeper 33% decline, she points out.

In fact, Whitney thinks the actual declines will be worse - closer to 40% - because of the loss of the securitization market and the paucity of mortgage credit available. And that means more defaults: "The consumer's ability to refinance his way out of trouble has diminished greatly."

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/04/news/newsmakers/whitney_oppenheimer.fortune/index.htm

[ozymandius]

63. Royal Bank of Scotland poised for biggest loss in UK banking history

THE Royal Bank of Scotland is poised to unveil the biggest loss in UK banking history after taking a hit of almost £6 billion from the credit crisis.

Britain’s second-largest bank is this week expected to reveal a pre-tax loss of at least £1 billion for the first six months of the year, with analysts warning it could slide to as much as £1.7 billion in the red.

The loss would be roughly five times higher than the deficit racked up by Barclays in 1992 at the height of the last recession.

RBS chairman Sir Tom McKillop is already under pressure from investors after the bank’s recent £12 billion rights issue. His chief executive, Sir Fred Goodwin, who marks 10 years at the bank this weekend, also faces shareholder scrutiny.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4449834.ece

[Dr.Phool]

82. Divine retribution for shunning Pat Robertson a couple of years ago.

Next: Fire and Brimstone at Disney.

Film at 11:00.

[ozymandius]

92. I am such a contrarian.

If they had embraced Pat Robertson and his 14th century politics - I'm pretty sure their damages would be much worse.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

73. 10-ishAM EDT Commodities Markets

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 123.66 9:16am ET Down 1.44 (1.15%)
HOU08.NYM Heating Oil Sep 08 3.4162 9:16am ET Down 0.0206 (0.60%)
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 9.19 9:30am ET Down 0.199 (2.12%)
PNU08.NYM Propane Gas Sep 08 1.785 8:51am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBU08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Sep 08 3.0656 9:16am ET Down 0.0187 (0.61%)

ALQ08.CMX Aluminum Aug 08 1.3325 9:41am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
HGQ08.CMX Copper Aug 08 3.517 9:25am ET Down 0.1115 (3.07%)
ZGQ08.CBT Gold 100 oz. Aug 08 905.20 8:44am ET Down 4.30 (0.47%)
GCQ08.CMX Gold Aug 08 907.40 9:49am ET Down 1.60 (0.18%)
PAU08.NYM Palladium Sep 08 361.70 9:20am ET Down 9.40 (2.53%)
PLU08.NYM Platinum Sep 08 2,040.10 8:36am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
ZIQ08.CBT Silver 5000 oz. Aug 08 17.48 Jul 30 0.00 (0.00%)
SIQ08.CMX Silver Aug 08 17.481 9:26am ET 0.00 (0.00%)

[ozymandius]

75. stocks keep falling

10:32
Dow 11,255.24 Down 71.08 (0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,290.93 Down 20.03 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,252.78 Down 7.53 (0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 3.94% Down 0.008
NYSE Volume 707,436,187.5
Nasdaq Volume 384,694,406.25

10:00 am : The major indices extend their opening losses as the financial sector (-1.8%) comes under selling pressure. The only two sectors posting a gain are defensive-oriented healthcare (+0.6%) and consumer staples (+0.4%).

Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney -- who is widely followed after she correctly predicted last autumn that Citigroup (C 18.30, -0.57) would cut its dividend -- told Fortune magazine that the financial market turmoil is far from over. On CNBC, Whitney said that home prices will fall much more than people expect.

Citigroup is a notable laggard this morning, falling 3.0%. Citi plans to close its $400 million Tribeca hedge fund after investors redeemed their funds, according to Bloomberg.com.

Economic news is just hitting the wires. June factory orders rose 1.7%, which is better than the expected 0.7% rise. Excluding tranportaion, orders rose 2.3%. The stock market has a muted response to the data.DJ30 -43.80 NASDAQ -13.23 SP500 -5.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1556/775/191 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1883/828/120 mln

[ozymandius]

79. updating blather

10:30 am : The major indices fall to session lows. The financial sector is the main laggard (-2.6%), although materials (-1.6%) and telecom (-1.5%) are also posting steep declines.

Shares of Motorola (MOT 9.62, +0.81) are getting a nice 9% boost on news that the struggling communication equipment company appointed Dr. Sanjay Jha as co-CEO of Motorola and CEO of Motorola Mobile Devices. Jha was previously COO and president of Qualcomm CDMA Technologies.

Separately, Imclone (IMCL 64.61, -0.73) formed a committee to study the all-cash $60 per share, or $4.5 billion, buyout offer from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 21.27, +0.16). Imclone gave a preliminary view that the offer, which represented a 29% premium, "substantially undervalues" IMCL. The market expected Imclone to respond in this manner, as shares of IMCL had already rose well above the buyout bid.DJ30 -69.53 NASDAQ -19.41 SP500 -7.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1795/687/366 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2058/778/204 mln

[wordpix]

76. down indices at 10;33

DJIA
11,255.40 -70.92

NASDAQ
2,290.98 -19.98

S&P 500
1,252.60 -7.71

[UpInArms]

85. Wowie Zowie! GM debt protection costs hit record 47.5 percent upfront

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0447526320080804

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The cost of insuring the debt of General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) against default hit a record high on Monday in the wake of a $15.5 billion quarterly loss reported by the automaker on Friday.

GM's five-year credit default swaps rose to 47.5 percent of the sum insured as an upfront payment from 46.5 percent at Friday's close, plus 500 basis points in annual payments, according to Phoenix Partners Group. This means it would cost $4.75 million to insure $10 million in debt for five years, plus $500,000 a year.

GM's benchmark bonds with an 8.375 percent coupon due in 2033 were unchanged at 47.5 cents on the dollar, according to MarketAxess. They had dipped to an all-time low of 46 cents on Friday after GM reported its second-quarter loss.

...more...

[ozymandius]

90. They are getting a taste of what someone with a 400 credit score

is charged for a credit debt card with a $300 limit.

---

As an afterthought (and the strike through) - I wish that our culture and language would accurately reflect what these pieces of plastic really are.

[ozymandius]

93. Even worse for the bottom line: GM lost $6,756 per vehicle sold

in the most recent quarter. story here

[UpInArms]

122. Analysts widen 2008 loss estimates for GM

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN3136385320080804?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

(Reuters) - At least four brokerages widened their 2008 loss estimates for General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), saying the No. 1 U.S. automaker's disappointing second-quarter results emphasized the need for it to raise cash to combat a severe U.S. downturn.

The struggling automaker, which has lost more than $51 billion over the past three years, posted a $15.5 billion quarterly loss on Friday as its North American sales fell 20 percent and plunging prices for SUVs prompted deep charges for its auto finance business.

Most analysts believe the company will have significant cash issues going forward, with some believing the automaker will have to tap external funding sources to meet its capital needs.

GM burned through $3.6 billion in cash in the second quarter and ended the period with $21 billion in cash and $5 billion in undrawn credit.

Liquidity will remain an important concern among investors as cash flow in the second half of the year is likely to remain negative for the company, Goldman Sachs said.

According to Lehman Brothers, the automaker may need $3 billion to $4 billion of additional secured funding or asset sales to remain above its $11 billion to $14 billion of minimum working cash needs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

86. LA foreclosures spread to Malibu, Santa Monica

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0135482420080804

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New foreclosures more than tripled in Los Angeles and more than doubled in Miami in July from a year ago, with more than $2 billion of mortgages turning sour in Los Angeles alone, real estate research website PropertyShark.com said.

The number of newly scheduled auctions of foreclosed properties in Los Angeles County rose 249 percent to 5,982 from July 2007, PropertyShark.com said in a report. One in every 526 Los Angeles homes was scheduled for a first-time foreclosure auction in July, while in New York, only one in 10,000 homes was scheduled for auction.

Los Angeles saw foreclosure activity start to spread to wealthier areas, such as Malibu, Santa Monica, and Manhattan Beach, according to the report.

"We are still in the middle of a housing hurricane where foreclosure activity remains high, home prices have declined, and the number of sales transactions has fallen dramatically," said Chief Executive Bill Staniford.

Foreclosure auctions in Miami in July rose 137 percent to 1,099 from a year ago, passing 1,000 new monthly scheduled foreclosure auctions for possibly the first time ever, said Roxana Ognean of PropertyShark's foreclosure product team.

...more...

[Juneboarder]

100. Interesting... I did a loan in Malibu just recently

and the homeowners insisted that their $1.3 million home has increased in value by 12% over the last year. Why argue with such incompetence??

[UpInArms]

87. WCI Communities files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWNAB461020080804

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - WCI Communities Inc (WCI.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said Monday that it and about 130 of its subsidiaries have filed voluntary petitions to restructure their debt under Chapter 11.

Chief Executive Jerry Starkey will leave the company effective immediately but be available for consultation as necessary. David Fry has been appointed as interim president and chief executive officer.

The Bonita Springs, Florida-based company has reached an agreement with its principal secured lenders to have access to over $50 million of cash to continue operating its business on an interim basis. WCI has also received a proposal from senior lenders to provide an additional $100 million of excess liquidity through a debtor in possession loan facility.

...more...

what/who is WCI?

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/companyProfile?symbol=WCI.N

WCI Communities, Inc. (WCI) is a homebuilding and real estate services company engaged in the design, construction and operation of leisure-oriented, master-planned communities. The Company designs, sells and builds single- and multi-family homes serving move-up, pre-retirement and retirement home buyers. WCI designs, sells and builds luxury residential towers targeting affluent, home purchasers. The Company acquires and develops the land in communities, constructs the residences, designs, builds and operates the amenities in many communities and otherwise controls most aspects of the planning, design, development, construction and operation of its communities. In certain situations, the Company elects to sell parcels and lots to others, including other builders and developers or end users.

WCI conducts development and homebuilding operations in markets, including Florida; East Coast-Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach, West Palm Beach/Boca Raton, Palm Coast, Daytona Beach and Jacksonville; West Coast-Naples, Marco Island, Fort Myers, Sarasota/Bradenton/Venice, Tampa, Ocala and Pensacola; New York-Dutchess, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester counties; New Jersey-Hudson and Middlesex counties; Connecticut-Fairfield County; Massachusetts-Middlesex County; Virginia-Arlington, Fairfax and Loudon counties, and Maryland-Howard and Prince Georges counties. As of December 31, 2007, the Company had 79 locations, where it is building single- and multi-family homes or mid- and high-rise residential units or operating amenity facilities. In total, WCI controls over 13,900 acres of land.

[UpInArms]

91. Florida housing bust forces another builder into bankruptcy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/florida-housing-bust-forces-another/story.aspx?guid=%7B5631E743%2D5CDD%2D4470%2D89E7%2D5DA34977FBEF%7D&dist=msr_5

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Troubled residential builder WCI Communities Inc. on Monday filed for bankruptcy, becoming the latest casualty of Florida's brutal condo and housing pullback.

The company (WCI: 0.02, -1.24, -98.4%) said it and about 130 subsidiaries have filed for Chapter 11 to restructure debt and capital.

Billionaire investor Carl Icahn, the company's chairman, said WCI had tried to avoid a bankruptcy filing, but it became necessary "because of the recent failed effort to obtain financing and the recognition that the company's entire $1.8 billion of debt may soon be in default."

Also, the Bonita Springs, Fla.-based luxury condo and home builder said Chief Executive Jerry Starkey is stepping down immediately and will be replaced by David Fry on an interim basis. WCI's board said it plans to start a search for a new CEO.

"Day-to-day operations will continue as usual, while we work with our stakeholders to restructure the balance sheet," Fry said in a statement. "We will continue to sell, build and deliver homes without interruption. Construction and sales activities will continue; employees will come to work and be paid."

...more...

[wordpix]

97. FL developers, here's a clue: you overbuilt and wrecked FL's environment

You deserve to go down and go bankrupt. I've seen horrible developments, but F:'s the worst---ignoring endangered wildlife laws, wetlands laws and so on. :nopity: :grr:

[ozymandius]

95. lunchtime update

12:04
Dow 11,303.93 Down 22.39 (0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,294.09 Down 16.87 (0.73%)
S&P 500 1,253.81 Down 6.50 (0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 3.944% Down 0.004
NYSE Volume 1,604,436,500
Nasdaq Volume 810,555,000

11:30 am : The stock market remains under pressure, as buyers remain on the sidelines. The Nasdaq composite is underperforming the S&P 500, largerly due to weakness in small-cap names.

The small-cap Russell 2000 Index is down 2.0% this session and the mid-cap S&P 400 is down 1.8%. For comparision, the large-cap S&P 500 is down 0.9%. However, both the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 are outperforming this year, with declines of 8.4% and 8.3% respectively, compared to the S&P 500's decline of 14.9%.DJ30 -71.97 NASDAQ -24.75 SP500 -10.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 676/633 mln/1967 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 735/358 mln/2226

11:00 am : The major indices extend their losses in a mostly broad-based decline. The energy sector (-1.9%) is underperforming the broader market as crude prices fall 0.9% to $123.92 per barrel.

Crude has traded in a volatile manner throughout the session as traders watch a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Prices were up as much as 1% and were down as much as 1.4%.

The healthcare sector (+0.6%) is bucking the negative trend. Shares of health insurer Humana (HUM 46.47, +1.83) rise 4.1% after the company posted better-than-expected second quarter earnings and gave a full year earnings outlook that topped Wall Street's forecast. Still, HUM is down nearly 40% year-to-date as rising medical costs and competition weigh on the company's bottom line -- earnings per share were down 3% from the prior year.

The managed healthcare group is up 3% this session.DJ30 -95.75 NASDAQ -26.69 SP500 -10.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 654/513 mln/1926 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 720/283 mln/2188

[PM7nj]

96. Oil Tumbles Toward $120 as Gulf Storm Fears Ease

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26001619

U.S. crude futures tumbled more than $5 and dropped to near $120 a barrel on Monday as signs of increased OPEC output and economic slowdown trumped concerns about a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico and Iran's nuclear program dispute with the West.

[UpInArms]

98. Once punch bowl-monitor,Fed now designated driver

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0447952620080804

the alcoholic binge party-going continues

WASHINGTON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - Once, the Federal Reserve's job was to take away the punch bowl when the party got going.

Now, central bank policy-makers are acting like parents lecturing teenage children on the dangers of drinking and driving -- while making clear they are willing to provide a ride home at any hour to prevent a tragedy.

Until the collapse of U.S. housing market and the credit crisis that became full-blown in August last year, the Fed was known principally for setting interest rates to ensure steady growth with low inflation, raising rates when the economy turned a bit too festive and cutting them when growth was flagging.

While the institution supervises large bank holding companies, those functions took a back seat, in the public eye, to monetary policy and macroeconomic forecasting.

But as a global credit crisis and painful U.S. economic slowdown drag on, the Fed has interpreted its dual mandate on growth and prices to include responsibility to maintain the stability of the entire financial system -- an evolution that will mean more rules for financial institutions and an expanded caretaker function for the Fed.

...more...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

99. Noon-Thirty EDT Commodities.

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 120.75 11:34am ET Down 4.35 (3.48%) <--==:woohoo:
HOU08.NYM Heating Oil Sep 08 3.3386 11:34am ET Down 0.0982 (2.86%) <--==:woohoo:
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 8.691 11:34am ET Down 0.698 (7.43%)--==:woohoo:
PNU08.NYM Propane Gas Sep 08 1.785 11:42am ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBU08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Sep 08 2.9908 11:34am ET Down 0.0935 (3.03%) <--==:woohoo:

CU08.CBT Corn Sep 08 535.00 12:26pm ET Down 30.00 (5.31%)
OU08.CBT Oats Sep 08 352.25 12:21pm ET Down 15.75 (4.28%)
RRU08.CBT Rough Rice Sep 08 16.12 12:10pm ET Down 0.24 (1.47%)
SMQ08.CBT Soybean Meal Aug 08 353.80 12:20pm ET Down 20.10 (5.38%)
BOQ08.CBT Soybean Oil Aug 08 54.15 12:11pm ET Down 2.46 (4.35%)
SQ08.CBT Soybeans Aug 08 1,286.00 12:01pm ET Down 71.75 (5.28%)

FCQ08.CME Feeder Cattle Aug 08 116.00 12:23pm ET Up 0.375 (0.32%)
PBQ08.CME Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 08 68.00 12:08pm ET Up 2.50 (3.82%)
LHQ08.CME Lean Hogs Aug 08 82.15 12:27pm ET Up 0.575 (0.70%)
LCQ08.CME Live Cattle Aug 08 100.00 12:23pm ET Down 0.025 (0.02%)

HGQ08.CMX Copper Aug 08 3.506 11:59am ET Down 0.1225 (3.38%)
ZGQ08.CBT Gold 100 oz. Aug 08 908.60 12:00pm ET Down 0.90 (0.10%)
GCQ08.CMX Gold Aug 08 897.60 12:07pm ET Down 11.40 (1.25%)
PAU08.NYM Palladium Sep 08 354.75 11:37am ET Down 16.35 (4.41%)

I will be back when oil breaks 120.<--==:woohoo:

[AnneD]

105. From our DUH department.....

WASHINGTON — Consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, fell in June as shoppers were hit with the biggest increase in prices in nearly three decades.
The Commerce Department reported today that consumer spending dipped by 0.2 percent in June, after removing the effects of higher prices, the poorest showing since a similar drop in February. The higher prices reflected a big surge in gasoline costs and helped to drive an inflation gauge tied to consumer spending up by 0.8 percent in June, the biggest increase since a 1 percent rise in February 1981.
The big rise in inflation ate up a part of the billions of dollars in stimulus payments delivered during the month. Personal incomes rose by a tiny 0.1 percent in June following a giant 1.8 percent increase in May.

<snip>

Income gains were skewed by how the department accounts for the billions of dollars in stimulus payments that have been made over the past three months. Those payments totaled $1.9 billion in April, when the program was just getting started, then $48.1 billion in May and $27.9 billion in June.
Those payouts made incomes and after-tax incomes soar in May compared to April but weaken in June since the level of June payments was lower than they had been in May.
Consumer spending before removing inflation rose by 0.6 percent in June after a big 0.8 percent increase in May. Much of that spending went to pay higher prices for gasoline and other items, however. Removing inflation, spending edged up by a more modest 0.3 percent in May and fell by 0.2 percent in June.

more....


www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5922785.html

[AnneD]

106. West Texans jaded instead of giddy during this oil boom

KERMIT — The lights on the rigs pierce the black West Texas night, illuminating mesquite shrubs and jack rabbits scampering across the flat landscape. The glow sends a reassuring message: Good times have returned to the oil patch.
Pump jacks nod vigorously alongside the highway. Fat royalty checks arrive monthly in the mailboxes of ranchers and other landowners. Teachers and retail clerks abandon their jobs for better-paying work in the oil fields as long-idle wells surge to life.
Yet, the people of Kermit and other Permian Basin towns have learned that petroleum-based prosperity is too fragile to squander in wild exuberance. They're paying off debts and investing in public institutions that will endure beyond the boom-and-bust cycles of the oil business.
"I've pissed away three booms in my lifetime, but this time, no," said Gary Blue, 43, who says his business preparing sites for drilling is turning down about as much work as it accepts these days.
Rodney Hayes, 49, who owns Kermit's only floral shop, said he and his neighbors haven't forgotten what happened when oil prices plummeted in the 1980s and the town's population dropped from 10,000 to its current 6,000 in a matter of months.

more.....


www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5922464.html

Wild catters prayer....Dear Lord, please let gas get over $80 a barrel again, I promise I won't blow this time....

[antigop]

107. Greenspan warns of more bank bail-outs

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/04082008/399/greenspan-warns-bank-bail-outs.html

More banks and financial institutions could end up being bailed out by governments before the credit crisis is over, Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, warns in an article in Tuesday's Financial Times.

However, Mr. Greenspan cautions that a heavy-handed regulatory response to the crisis would do more harm than good because it would depress global share prices. He worries that governments, already troubled by inflation, might try to reassert their grip on economic affairs.

"If that becomes widespread, globalisation could reverse, at awesome cost," he says.

[Karenina]

108. To whom? she asks...

Dock this guy! :eyes:

[wordpix]

115. how about some conditions on those bailouts? This POS pResident gives bailouts carte blanche

[ozymandius]

120. "governments...might try to reassert their grip on economic affairs"

I guess our professional idiot hasn't noticed how the US government has asserted its grip our economy and turned into a socialist system to benefit the corporate classes.

Or maybe he's a liar with a twenty year-old script.

[antigop]

109. Top U.S UBS lawyer Aufhauser resigns

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b08C3A3A8-F317-4032-A3A4-EDE73936B836%7d&siteid=yhoof2

David Aufhauser, general counsel for UBS AG's (UBS:18.97, -0.42, -2.2%) investment bank and for North America, resigned for unspecified reasons, according to media reports Monday. Aufhauser was one of the unnamed UBS executives referred to in a complaint filed by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over dealings in the auction rate securities market, The Wall Street Journal reported.

[Pale Blue Dot]

110. Does it occur to anyone else that without the burst of the commodiites bubble,

stocks would likely be below where they were when Bush took office?

It seems like the ONLY thing propping the markets up - and then, just barely - is the drop in oil prices. The question is, how long can they continue to fall?

[radfringe]

113. how long?

until people start using more gas/fuel - with winter coming I see more cutbacks by consumers in order to conserve. things like dinner and movie, or other things that aren't an absolute necessity will see more cutbacks.

the only thing in my area that is seeing an increase in sales are businesses that sell and install wood or pellet stoves

this past weekend there was the big race in the poconos, usually it's packed to the rafters. this year there was plenty of parking space

[wordpix]

116. that's right, pellets and pellet stoves are selling brikly. Bought one 2 yrs. ago

and I love it

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

114. I am thinking the potential is for...

$70-80/barrel. That said, there is gonna be a lot of manipulation going on behind the scenes to keep that price up above that, distillate supply bottlenecks, refinery closings, pipeline maintenance, production cuts. A downward pressure will be that oil sitting in tankers at anchor. Also, if Obama releases some of the SPR, that should have considerable market effects.

It is time to break the backs of the oil companies so they stay broken.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

111. 4:15 Commodities Market Report

CLU08.NYM Crude Oil Sep 08 121.41 3:16pm ET Down 3.69 (2.95%)
HOU08.NYM Heating Oil Sep 08 3.3501 3:26pm ET Down 0.0867 (2.52%)
NGU08.NYM Natural Gas Sep 08 8.726 3:31pm ET Down 0.663 (7.06%)
PNU08.NYM Propane Gas Sep 08 1.785 2:47pm ET 0.00 (0.00%)
RBU08.NYM RBOB Gasoline Sep 08 3.0002 3:15pm ET Down 0.0841 (2.73%)

ALQ08.CMX Aluminum Aug 08 1.31 3:27pm ET Down 0.0225 (1.69%)
HGQ08.CMX Copper Aug 08 3.4875 1:01pm ET Down 0.141 (3.89%)
ZGQ08.CBT Gold 100 oz. Aug 08 896.30 4:04pm ET Down 13.20 (1.45%)
GCQ08.CMX Gold Aug 08 894.40 3:46pm ET Down 14.60 (1.61%)
PAU08.NYM Palladium Sep 08 353.00 3:17pm ET Down 18.10 (4.88%)
PLU08.NYM Platinum Sep 08 2,040.10 2:20pm ET 0.00 (0.00%)
ZIQ08.CBT Silver 5000 oz. Aug 08 17.48 Jul 30 0.00 (0.00%)
SIQ08.CMX Silver Aug 08 17.103 3:11pm ET Down 0.378 (2.16%)

CU08.CBT Corn Sep 08 535.50 2:24pm ET Down 29.50 (5.22%)
OU08.CBT Oats Sep 08 359.00 2:09pm ET Down 9.00 (2.45%)
RRU08.CBT Rough Rice Sep 08 16.05 2:14pm ET Down 0.31 (1.89%)
SMQ08.CBT Soybean Meal Aug 08 354.00 2:16pm ET Down 19.90 (5.32%)
BOQ08.CBT Soybean Oil Aug 08 54.10 2:34pm ET Down 2.51 (4.43%)
SQ08.CBT Soybeans Aug 08 1,287.00 2:12pm ET Down 70.75 (5.21%)

FCQ08.CME Feeder Cattle Aug 08 115.425 2:08pm ET Down 0.20 (0.17%)
PBQ08.CME Frozen Pork Bellies Aug 08 68.40 1:58pm ET Up 2.90 (4.43%)
LHQ08.CME Lean Hogs Aug 08 82.25 1:59pm ET Up 0.675 (0.83%)
LCQ08.CME Live Cattle Aug 08 100.175 2:00pm ET Up 0.15 (0.15%)

CCU08.NYB Cocoa Sep 08 2,723.00 3:14pm ET Down 263.00 (8.78%)
KCU08.NYB Coffee Sep 08 137.10 3:14pm ET Down 3.65 (2.60%)
CTV08.NYB Cotton Oct 08 67.10 3:14pm ET Down 2.31 (3.33%)
LBU08.CME Lumber Sep 08 259.00 2:00pm ET Up 4.20 (1.65%)
OJU08.NYB Orange Juice Sep 08 99.75 3:14pm ET Down 3.60 (3.47%)
SBV08.NYB Sugar #11 Oct 08 13.30 3:14pm ET Down 0.81 (5.73%)
SEU08.NYB Sugar #14 Sep 08 23.78 3:18pm ET Up 0.03 (0.13%)

[Pale Blue Dot]

112. Hey T_S

see my post right above yours.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

121. Fin

Dow 11,284.15 Down 42.17 (0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,285.56 Down 25.40 (1.10%)
S&P 500 1,249.01 Down 11.30 (0.90%)
10-Yr Bond 3.9720% Up 0.0240
NYSE Volume 4,562,286,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,041,412,000

4:20 pm : The stock market posted a steep decline on Monday as plunging crude oil and commodity prices caused a steep sell off in energy and material names, but did not translate into large gains in the broader market. Selling interest was also fueled by continued concerns regarding financials and a June personal income and spending report that showed higher-than-expected inflation.

Crude prices plunged 3.0% to $121.30 per barrel and commodities as a whole tumbled 3.4%. There was no specific news item to account for the retreat, although there was speculation that a large hedge fund had to liquidate its positions.

The energy sector (4.9%) fell on the retreat in crude prices. Likewise, material stocks slipped 4.2%, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 80.44, -10.87) getting hit especially hard.

Lately, the stock market as a whole has rallied when the price of crude oil declined. This session, however, only saw modest buying interest on the drop in crude. Surprisingly, even the transportation sector (-0.8%) was unable to muster a gain. As a result, weakness in the materials and energy sectors offset the benefit that the rest of the stock market saw due to the drop in crude and commodity prices.

Only three sectors posted a gain -- consumer discretionary (+0.5%), consumer staples (+1.2%) and health care (+1.3%). The health care sector got a boost after Humana (HUM 46.75, +2.11) posted better-than-expected second quarter earnings and gave a full-year earnings outlook that topped Wall Street's forecast.

The drop in crude prices helped the financial sector recover from its session low when it was down 2.9%, although the sector still underperformed with a loss of 1.3%.

Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney -- who is widely followed after she correctly predicted last autumn that Citigroup (C 18.90, +0.04) would cut its dividend -- told Fortune magazine that the financial market turmoil is far from over. On CNBC, Whitney said that home prices will fall much more than people expect.

In addition, London-based bank HSBC (HBC 81.49, -1.51) saw first-half 2008 profits fall 29%, largely due to losses related to the U.S. mortgage market.

In terms of economic news, the June personal income and spending report was mixed, with investors showing disappointment regarding the report's inflation component. Month-over-month, personal income rose 0.1% (-0.2% consensus), personal spending increased 0.6% (+0.4% consensus) and core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.3% (+0.2% consensus).

The PCE price index is up 0.8% month-over-month. As a result, real spending and income actually fell in June.

Separately, the latest factory orders report showed that the manufacturing sector is much healthier than is widely recognized. June total factory orders were up 1.7%, which is much stronger than the expected gain of 0.7%. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.3%.

Tuesday brings the widely anticipated FOMC announcement. The fed funds rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.00%, so the wording of the Fed's directive will be the main trading catalyst.DJ30 -42.17 NASDAQ -25.40 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.7% SP400 -1.9% SP500 -11.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 928/1.99 bln/1878 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1049/1.23 bln/2065

[Wednesdays]

126. Hong Kong down nearly 2% right now

I'd watch it further, but I gotta hit the sack.