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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 06:48 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH THREAD--Friday July 25, 2003--#1
Friday, July 25, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 545
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 255
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 227 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 285 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 127
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 611
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES...........S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 24, 2003
Dow 9,112.51 -81.73 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,701.42 -17.76 (-1.03%)
S&P 500 981.60 -7.01 (-0.71%)

10-Yr Bond 4.167% +0.065
Gold futures…362.30 +3.60
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DOW..............NASDAQ...........S&P (auto-update, hit refresh/reload)


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details &
links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more,
are organizing something, or would like to, contact susan@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actionsCitizens For Legitimate Government
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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T Roosevelt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 07:03 AM
Response to Original message
1. Are we becoming 1930s Germany
Edited on Fri Jul-25-03 07:04 AM by T Roosevelt
I came across this in a financial newsletter and it started me thinking - are we (the middle class) being driven into a situation where a 1933-1945 situation can occur or is occurring? (this ties in with some things I've read in "Inside the Third Reich" by Albert Speer)

On edit: http://www.dailyreckoning.com


*** And here...a letter from a live reader, in Australia:
"I read with interest your essay this morning titled 'Dead Men Talking'. An excellent essay. I cannot but wonder what future historians will say about this crazy era, and in particular about Bush, Greenspan and Bernanke. Will Greenspan be compared with the German Reichbank President Rudolf Havenstein, who was responsible for the money printing? He and his associates should be.

"I feel that on this subject, President Bush is entirely in the dark. Like The Fuhrer, who was convinced that 'everything' could be accomplished by an act of the will, he seems to think that all is well so long as he declares it so. Could he become America's Fuhrer? Or will it be some equally power-mad Democrat?

"The following may also help bring some understanding of what a rapidly expanding money supply can do:

"In his book, titled 'Before The Deluge', Otto Friedrich devoted an entire chapter to the inflation in Germany between 1919 and 1923. He called this chapter 'A Kind Of Madness'. It is a fascinating study. It is worth repeating a small section of his narrative in order to alert readers to the deleterious effects inflation has upon a population:

"A seventy-five-year-old lady, previously a journalist told him, 'Yes, the inflation was by far the most important event of this period. It wiped out the savings of the entire middle class, but those are just words. You have to realize what that meant. There was not a single girl in the entire German middle class who could get married without her father paying a dowry. Even the maids - they never spent a penny of their wages. They saved and saved so that they could get married. When the money became worthless, it destroyed the whole system for getting married, and so it destroyed the whole idea of remaining chaste until marriage.

"'The rich never lived up to their own standards, of course, and the poor had different standards anyway, but the middle class, by and large, obeyed the rules. Not every girl was a virgin when she married, but it was generally accepted that one should be. But what happened from the inflation was that the girls learned that virginity didn't matter any more. The women were liberated.

"'A visiting journalist, Louis Lockner, reported in 1923 he got the usual first impression of cafes crowded with stylishly garbed ladies, but soon found a different story on the side streets off the fashionable boulevards. "I visited a typical Youth Welfare Station", he said later. "Children who looked as though they were eight or nine years old proved to be thirteen. I learned that there were then 15,000 tubercular children in Berlin; that 23% of the children examined by the city health authorities were badly undernourished." The old were equally helpless. One elderly writer, Maximilian Bern, withdrew all his savings, more than 100,000 marks, and spent them on one subway ticket. He took a ride around Berlin and then locked himself in his apartment and starved to death.

"'"Barbarism prevailed," said another old resident, George Grosz. The streets became dangerous....we kept ducking in and out of doorways because restless people, unable to remain in their houses, would go up on the roof tops and shoot indiscriminately at anything they saw. Once when one of these snipers was caught and faced with the man he had shot in the arm, his only explanation was, "But I thought it was a big pigeon".

"'The fundamental quality of the disaster was a complete loss of faith in the functioning of society. Money is important not just as a medium of exchange, after all, but as a standard by which society judges our work, and thus ourselves. If all money becomes worthless, then so does all government, and all society, and all standards. In the madness of 1923, a workman's work was worthless, a widow's savings were worthless, everything was worthless.

"'English historian, Alan Bullock, wrote in his book titled "Hitler: A Study In Tyranny", "The collapse of the currency not only meant the end of trade, bankrupt businesses, food shortage in the big cities and unemployment: it had the effect, which is the unique quality of economic catastrophe, of reaching down to and touching every single member of the community in a way which no political event can. The savings of the middle classes and the working classes were wiped out at a single blow with a ruthlessness which no revolution could ever equal; at the same time the purchasing power of wages was reduced to nothing. Even if a man worked till he dropped it was impossible to buy enough clothes for his family - and work, in any case, was not to be found. The result of the inflation was to undermine the foundations of German society in a way which neither the war nor the revolution of November 1918, nor the Treaty of Versailles had ever done. The real revolution in Germany was the inflation, for it destroyed not only property and money, but faith in property and the meaning of money".'"
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. We've got many advantages over 30's Germany
One major advantage being our size and diversity, both as a nation and as an economy. We also have quite different social supports and a history of fighting back against bad government (it takes a while to get Americans riled, but when we do....)
I still have faith that we'll toss the SOBs out before it gets anywhere as bad as that, altho I do see some similarities.
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German-Lefty Donating Member (568 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #3
20. I'd like to believe that.
People have said getting "riled" up got the Germans into both world wars. Hitler came to power do things that actually did benifit the majority of the population. I could see Americans falling for an evil guy that fixed thier economy after 8 years of Bush Ression. Hell the seem to like this SOB even though he's screwing them.

The real questions is if the people know and understand the value of democracy. Germans failed in the 30s. I think they've learnt a lot from history.

Can Americans learn from others' mistakes or are they doomed to need a lesson from history?
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ze_dscherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Inflation tales
Germany went through two hyper-inflations - after both world wars. The hyperinflation after WWI was the most serious one. Cities, regions and even companies were printing their own token money. Coins were made of china, bills printed on cloth, leather, railway tickets or even plywood - it is assumed that more than hundred thousand different coins/bills were in existence. One US$ was worth 4.200.000.000.000 Reichsmark. At the end of inflation, a TRILLION Reichsmark were exchanged into a single Rentenmark. Those with hard assets were saved, everyone who had saved money (and saving is regarded as a German virtue) had lost every penny saved.

My grandmother once told me how all the money her father had earned from selling a pig just a couple of days later was spent on a hairpin.

Some pictures and (German) info on token money: http://www.das-deutsche-notgeld.de/pm.htm#inhalt1

But remember: This was hyper-inflation, NOT ordinary inflation! And the societal/political/economic situation was a whole lot different.


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German-Lefty Donating Member (568 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 10:48 AM
Response to Reply #5
19. Hey are you German too?
I'm half American living in Frankfurt.

Yeah, I don't think America is going to have that kind of inflation too soon, but they seem to be working hard at it. Boy I'm glad to getting paid in Euro :-).
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ze_dscherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #19
23. Germans @ DU
Didn't my nick tell you?

There are some more of us. Just a couple of days ago we had a German-only thread - the U.S. was still sleeping.

At the End searched we us against-side in worst Germlish to overtrump.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:21 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Very good article
and while Maeve clearly points out some differences, I have to say that the similarities are chilling.

Especially the mindset of the two fuhrers. Erie.

Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
2. Interesting column by Paul Krugman in NYT
Dropping the Bonds
In his July testimony to Congress on monetary policy, Alan Greenspan was cautious but _ adjusting for his usual funereal demeanor _ quite upbeat. ``Although the uncertainties of earlier this year are as yet not fully resolved,'' he declared, ``the U.S. economy appears to have withstood a set of blows. Not surprisingly the depressing effects of recent events linger. Nevertheless, the fundamentals are in place for a return to sustained healthy growth.''

O.K., I cheated: those quotations come from his testimony in July 2002, not July 2003. Needless to say, ``healthy growth'' failed to materialize. Undaunted, he said pretty much the same thing last week _ and the result was to reinforce a huge sell-off in the bond market, which may undermine the very recovery he predicted

I used to be a great admirer of Mr. Greenspan. But something has gone very wrong with the maestro.

His testimony last week was surprising on several counts. There is very little evidence in the data for a strong recovery ready to break out. As far as I can make out, Mr. Greenspan's optimism is entirely based on models predicting that tax cuts and low interest rates will get the economy moving. But that's what the models said last year, too: the report that accompanied his July 2002 testimony predicted an unemployment rate of 5.25 to 5.5 percent by late 2003 (the rate is now 6.4 percent). Maybe tax cuts mainly for the affluent aren't as effective as the models say.


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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 07:39 AM
Response to Original message
4. Durable Goods Orders soar 2.1%
Edited on Fri Jul-25-03 07:41 AM by Maeve
They were flat at last report and the market expected a rise of 1.2% (altho Briefing.com was hoping as high as 4.5%, based on Boeing's aircraft orders)

CNN Money Story
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for costly manufactured goods shot up at the fastest rate in five months during June, led by a surge in demand for new aircraft and cars, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Orders for long-lasting durable goods climbed 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $172.5 billion last month after being flat in May -- a surprisingly robust pickup that surpassed Wall Street economists' forecasts for a 1.0 percent increase and implied a recovering industrial sector that could help push a faster pace of second-half economic expansion.

The June increase was the strongest since a matching 2.1 percent rise in orders in January.
<snip>
Excluding the volatile transportation sector, June durables orders gained 1.4 percent following a 0.9 percent May increase. That also was the strongest pickup in orders excluding transportation since January, when they were up 1.5 percent.
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
7. And we're off! 9:32
Dow 9,122.32 +9.81 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,703.13 +1.71 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 982.62 +1.02 (+0.10%)
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Coventina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
8. No "I Ching" today
Edited on Fri Jul-25-03 08:33 AM by Coventina
I just wanted to let you guys know that I am moments away from leaving for an extended weekend on the left coast!
:-)

So I won't be doing a reading today or Monday (cuz I'll be driving back).
See you all on Tuesday!
Take care!
:hi:

on edit: spelling!
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. have a great trip!
See you back next week safe and sound dear! :hi:

Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:47 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. Great trip and safe home!
:hi:
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:33 AM
Response to Original message
9. Good Friday Morning All!!
Wow! Great Krugman today!! Love the Green-man slam. I too have wondered what happened to him.

So durable goods are up eh? Will that get the lemmings to market? Market's been open a minute or two and DOW's up 10 pts. And don't forget it is Friday. (which could mean anything but it often means buy)

So you're all that much closer to vacation to the Emerald Isle Maeve, glad you're going during dull August so we're likelyto still be standing when you come back dear. (she said optimistically) ;-)

Wondering what we're in for.....

Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:33 AM
Response to Original message
10. No I Ching today or Monday
Some may have missed it--Coventina said in yesterday's thread that she won't be around.

Ouija is doubtful of any running of the bulls today.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. a bright sunny start
9:47 and it looks pretty...


Dow 9,139.17 +26.66 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,707.15 +5.73 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 984.19 +2.59 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.168% +0.001

Of course yesterday was nice, till about 2:15 or so......

Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. And boucing higher!
Caveat--it has bounced a couple times already--where it will land :shrug:

Dow 9,156.57 +44.06 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,709.30 +7.88 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 986.10 +4.50 (+0.46%)
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 09:12 AM
Response to Original message
15. Home sales mixed
"June new home sales up 4.7% to record 1.16 million annual rate; existing home sales down 0.3% to 5.83 million annual rate. Details coming."

Note: mortgage rates are headed back up, so there is a possibility that this is a "last hurrah" for the builders.
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 09:13 AM
Response to Original message
16. 10:13 and if this were a roller coaster, I'd be barfing
Edited on Fri Jul-25-03 09:16 AM by Maeve
Dow 9,151.73 +39.22 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,702.53 +1.11 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 984.98 +3.38 (+0.34%)

on edit--note particularly the Nasdaq and a few minutes later...

Dow 9,136.39 +23.88 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,699.11 -2.31 (-0.14%)

S&P 500 983.98 +2.38 (+0.24%)
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
17. 10:51 and a dip into the red sea
Dow 9,089.06 -23.45 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,686.88 -14.54 (-0.85%)
S&P 500 977.81 -3.79 (-0.39%)
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 10:39 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. but wait!!
11:37 and there is improvement:


Dow 9,123.44 +10.93 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,695.25 -6.17 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 982.20 +0.60 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.105% -0.062


This day cannot seem to make up its mind. Up, down, up, down.

I feel sea-sick......

Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. Noon and back in black
Dow 9,162.09 +49.58 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,704.13 +2.71 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 986.65 +5.05 (+0.51%)
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 11:04 AM
Response to Original message
22. greetings from L.A.
Hi folks. I've been on a news fast for the past few days. It's been nice. Has the market been unpredictable as usual?


at 11:52

 DJIA 9,149.00 36.49  (0.40%)
 NASDAQ 1,700.93 -0.49  (-0.03%) 
 S&P 500 985.29 3.69  (0.38%)
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. Ozy!! Great to see ya!!
Yeah, it's been a crazy week. Be glad you are away friend! Of course we look forward to your return.

12:15 and it's looking rosy:


Dow 9,156.00 +43.49 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,701.94 +0.52 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 986.10 +4.50 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.142% -0.025


Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. Greetings to LaLaLand!
As Julie said, Wall Street has been doing its own version of LaLa...and today is no different. Currently we have

Dow 9,194.17 +81.66 (+0.90%)
Nasdaq 1,707.48 +6.06 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 989.93 +8.33 (+0.85%)
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. Thanks!
The LA Times (my only source of dribbling news) has been non-stop California governor recall election and the bond rating downgrade to "near junk".

We're off to the LACMA and the Labrea tarpits.

Have a great day.
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
27. 2:55 and merrily we roll along!
Dow 9,241.93 +129.42 (+1.42%)
Nasdaq 1,722.76 +21.34 (+1.25%)
S&P 500 995.32 +13.72 (+1.40%)
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
28. Zowie! A Grand Exit
looks to be taking shape here at 2:54:


Dow 9,242.35 +129.84 (+1.42%)
Nasdaq 1,722.76 +21.34 (+1.25%)
S&P 500 995.32 +13.72 (+1.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.182% +0.015


The treasuries once again get to play the red-haired step-child (no offense to any red-haired step-children). ;-)

Julie
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
29. this oughta instill a lot of
misguided confidence, 6 minutes to close:



Dow 9,275.40 +162.89 (+1.79%)
Nasdaq 1,729.48 +28.06 (+1.65%)
S&P 500 998.57 +16.97 (+1.73%)
10-Yr Bond 4.178% +0.011


Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. Sorry I didn't post earlier
Having trouble connecting and just now got the chance--here's the final blather:
Close: Today's trading action must've raised a few eyebrows, but there we have it... In the midst of a quiet day in terms of corporate news and research, the market started off in positive territory, declined into negative territory, but advanced and finished the day with gains of 1.7-1.8% for the session and 0.5-1.3% compared to last Friday's levels... But first things first... The leading indicator of manufacturing activity, the Durable Orders report, checked in at 2.1%, above the consensus of 1.2%, and provided the impetus for the slightly positive bias in the early trade...
The uptick, however, was short-lived as the small dip in Existing Home Sales report to 5.83 mln versus the consensus of 6.0 mln was used as an excuse to book profits, forcing all of the major averages into negative territory... As an aside, the simultaneously reported New Home Sales report checked in at 1.16 mln versus the consensus of 1.11 mln... The selling pressure abated after the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 retested and held at their technically significant levels of 1686 (June range top) and 978.75 (50-day moving average)...

From that point on, there was no looking back for the market as all of the major indices were on a one-way street heading north...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,284.57 +172.06 (+1.89%)
Nasdaq 1,730.70 +29.28 (+1.72%)
S&P 500 998.68 +17.08 (+1.74%)
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-25-03 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. It was a euphoric sort of moment.......
Well maybe not for Treasuries. Just wait till this trickles down into higher rates on loans as has been happening already. Those next number will hurt worse because of the confidence some will draw from today's numbers.

Just my 1.0125 worth......

Julie
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