STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday June 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday June 13, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 222
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2700 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2425 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2716
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 12, 2008

Dow... 12,141.58 +57.81 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq... 2,404.35 +10.34 (+0.43%)
S&P 500... 1,339.87 +4.38 (+0.33%)
Gold future... 872.00 -10.90 (-1.25%)
30-Year Bond 4.76% +0.06 (+1.32%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.21% +0.13 (3.24%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Wild Ride In Lehman, Financials

BY MIKE SHEDLOCK

Concerns continue to mount at Lehman, with several executives on the hot seat. Today Lehman Dropped their CFO and President.

une 12 (Bloomberg) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. replaced Chief Financial Officer Erin Callan and President Joseph Gregory after the firm failed to quell speculation about mounting losses and stem a 60 percent plunge in the stock this year.

Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld has seen Lehman's ability to remain independent called into question this week after the company posted the first quarterly loss since it went public in 1994 and turned to outside investors for a $6 billion cash infusion.

While Lehman may consider selling a stake to a strategic partner, Fuld is unlikely to sell the whole firm, UBS AG analyst Glenn Schorr said in an interview last week. Many of Lehman's bigger rivals have also been weakened by the subprime crisis, making it unlikely they could buy the firm, Schorr said.

Credibility Issues

On Monday I stated that Credibility Issues Haunt Lehman. And I continue to wonder what Lehman is hiding on its balance sheet, what its real leverage is, and how much its $29 billion portfolio of commercial real estate is really worth.

Lehman wrote down $3.5 billion and called it "substantial". I call it "peanuts". Earlier this week, in a capital raising effort, Lehman sold 145,000,000 shares at 28. Anyone who bought shares at 28 now has to regret it.

.....

More Problems Surface In Alt-A

Today the S&P Lowered Ratings on 65 classes of Alt-A Securities. Far more downgrades of Alt-A mortgages are coming. Inquiring minds might be asking "What banks have the biggest exposure to Alt-A?" The answer is Washington Mutual (WM) and Wachovia (WB).

One quick look at the chart of Washington Mutual shows the bank is on life support.

-chart-

...and cut....

There is no breathing room for the box Bernanke is in. Several Fed governors are in open revolt calling for higher rates, and others are openly questioning the Term Auction Facility (TAF), and Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). US consumers are getting smoked by rising prices, banks are getting smoked by falling margins, rising defaults, and the need to raise capital. Housing will be further smoked if Bernanke is forced to raise rates and the dollar may be further smoked if he does not.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports (let's see how the fiction writers spin this one)

08:30 Core CPI May
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.1%

08:30 CPI May
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.2%

10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun
Briefing.com 59.0
Consensus 59.5
Prior 59.8

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

17. CPI @ 0.2% as expected (did you think there was inflation?)

01. U.S. May CPI medical care prices up 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

02. U.S. May shelter prices up 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

03. U.S. May CPI food prices up 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

04. U.S CPI up 4.2% in past year; core CPI up 2.3%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

05. U.S. May CPI energy prices up 4.4%
8:30 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

06. U.S. May core CPI up 0.2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

07. U.S. May CPI up 0.6% vs. 0.5% expected
8:30 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

[UpInArms]

21. "core measures of inflation have barely budged, a comforting sign'"

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cpi-rises-06-back-surging/story.aspx?guid=%7BAA0B7528%2D6E79%2D438F%2D9488%2DD3F38BEC5B91%7D&dist=msr_8

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in six months in May, bolstered by surging energy prices, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.6% in May, worse than the 0.5% gain expected by economists. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% as expected.

The CPI rose 0.2% in April, and core prices were up 0.1%.

In May, energy prices rose 4.4% after seasonal adjustments, the biggest gain since November. Gasoline prices rose 5.7% after seasonal adjustments.

Food prices rose 0.3%, with beef prices up 1.5%, while dairy, pork and fruit prices fell.

The CPI is up 4.2% in the past year and has risen at a 4.9% annual pace over the past three months. Inflation has overtaken weak growth as the top concern for financial markets and for some officials at the Federal Reserve.

While headline inflation has been red hot due to soaring crude oil prices, core measures of inflation have barely budged, a comforting sign that an inflationary spiral has not taken hold. The core CPI is up 2.3% in the past year, and has risen at a modest 1.8% annual pace over the past three months.

Most Fed officials, including Chairman Ben Bernanke, are sticking to their forecast of moderating inflation in coming months in a reaction to the weaker U.S. economy.

...more...

emphasis mine

[UpInArms]

22. Real wages are down 1.2% in the past year.

more from the linked article:

In May, real (inflation-adjusted) weekly earnings fell 0.4%, the Labor Department said in a separate report. Real wages are down 1.2% in the past year.

[ozymandius]

27. Professional idiots.

As usual, the gauge is focused on a three month view. The real focus should be on the annual increase. Core items have barely budged. Let's engage the thought process on this, shall we? Food and energy have skyrocketed. That leaves less money to spend on items like food, electronics, cars, washers&dryers, books, DVDs and the like.

Now apply the simple principle of supply and demand to this data: prices either go down or remain steady if demand is down. Prices go up as demand goes up. Would it make sense to extract the logic equating lower inflationary pressure due to lowered demand for these "core" items? We know that retailers have been eating transportation costs out of fear for driving away customers with higher prices. Let's face facts: retail hurts.

I'll argue a case for the sake of semantics. I believe that the items listed as "core" should be reversed since those commodities are mainly discretionary expenses. The real "core" are those items we cannot live without. That's my opinion (combined with $1.75 at Starbucks will buy you a cup of coffee).

[Pale Blue Dot]

18. Core CPI up 0.2. CPI up 0.6

Uh-Oh.

[UpInArms]

36. June UMich consumer sentiment 56.7 vs. 59.8 in May: report

01. June UMich consumer sentiment 56.7 vs. 59.8 in May: report
9:59 AM ET, Jun 13, 2008

[TalkingDog]

40. Like this: "Core Contained"

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1233421520080613

Soaring gasoline prices helped drive up overall U.S. consumer prices during May by the fastest rate in six months, but core prices remained tame, a government report on Friday showed.

The 0.6 percent rise in May prices was more than the 0.5 percent gain Wall Street analysts polled by Reuters were expecting after a 0.2 percent increase in April.

However, so-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, rose 0.2 percent as expected, the Labor Department report showed.

snip:
In signs of price pressures, year-over-year consumer prices rose a larger-than-expected 4.2 percent, the biggest 12-month rise since January.




Yes, somebody spill a drink on the economy, and yes all the bells and whistles are going off all over the place, but trust me there is no need for alarm: The Core is Contained.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil holds steady above $136 a barrel

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia - Oil prices held steady above $136 a barrel in Asia Friday after a sharp rebound the previous session as traders said supply worries would likely drive the market higher.

"Trading has been quite choppy over the past week between the range of $131 and $139 a barrel," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

"There is no driver out there to cause prices to break out of this range yet. The overall market trend is still upward," he said. "There are still many supply side concerns that will continue to support prices at high levels. Further price spikes are possible in the coming weeks."

Late afternoon in Singapore, light, sweet crude for July delivery dipped 20 cents to $136.61 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil prices shot higher Thursday on reports that Nigeria's state-owned oil company will take over oil operations in parts of the country from a Royal Dutch Shell PLC joint venture, sparking fears it may cut output.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Exxon sells US gas stations to distributors

HOUSTON - Exxon Mobil Corp. said Thursday it's getting out of the retail gasoline business, following other major oil companies who've been selling their low-margin stations to gasoline distributors.

Motorists, however, will continue to see Exxon's Tiger-themed stations and Mobil outlets in their neighborhoods. Already, about 75 percent of Exxon Mobil's roughly 12,000 stations in the U.S. are owned by branded distributors, who buy Exxon Mobil products and pay to use the name.

Irving-based Exxon, the world's biggest publicly traded oil company, said it now plans to sell to distributors its remaining 820 company-owned stations and another 1,400 outlets operated by dealers. Exxon Mobil didn't disclose financial details but said the sales will take place over a "multiyear period."

Texas has the most company-owned retail locations with about 190. Florida is next with 170.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080613/ap_on_bi_ge/exxon_mobil_gas_stations_7

[UpInArms]

19. July crude down 24 cents to $136.49 a barrel on Nymex

8:34
July crude down 24 cents to $136.49 a barrel on Nymex

[Robbien]

48. For every dollar traded in oil specs, ten more are traded in oil swaps

Resting on each barrel of oil trades are ten dollars of "paper oil" swaps. Is it any wonder that fluctuations in price these days is magnified ten times?

[UpInArms]

28. Gasoline rises to average price of $4.06 a gallon in U.S.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gasoline-rises-average-price-406/story.aspx?guid=%7B9929BF59%2D9261%2D424D%2DB289%2DA831C6CC26CF%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline rose a penny in the last day to $4.06 a gallon, a new record, according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report from AAA. Gasoline broke through the $4 level for the first time on Sunday and has been edging up since then. Guy Caruso, head of the federal Energy Information Administration, told Congress on Wednesday that his office expects the price to reach about $4.15 a gallon this summer.

[ozymandius]

5. US foreclosure filings surge 48 percent in May

WASHINGTON - The number of U.S. homeowners swept up in the housing crisis rose further last month, with foreclosure filings up nearly 50 percent compared with a year earlier, a foreclosure listing company said Friday.

Nationwide, 261,255 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in May, up 48 percent from 176,137 in the same month last year and up 7 percent from April, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

One in every 483 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in May, the highest number since RealtyTrac started the report in 2005 and the second-straight monthly record.

Foreclosure filings increased from a year earlier in all but 10 states. Nevada, California, Arizona, Florida and Michigan had the highest statewide foreclosure rates.

Metropolitan areas in California and Florida accounted for nine of the top 10 areas with the highest rate of foreclosure. That list was led by Stockton, Calif. and the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida.

.....

Making matters worse, mortgage rates have been rising, reflecting increased concerns about what the Federal Reserve might do to battle inflation. Freddie Mac, the mortgage company, reported Thursday that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.32 percent this week, the highest level in nearly eight months and up sharply from 6.09 percent last week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080613/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates

[ozymandius]

11. additional info

.....

Foreclosures add to inventory and crowd out regular sales, Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris, economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, wrote in a report yesterday. Foreclosures will account for 30 percent of national home sales this year as 1.2 million foreclosed single-family homes will eventually enter the market, they said. They estimate that foreclosed properties, which typically sell for about 20 percent less than other homes, will depress home prices by 6 percent.

Feedback Loop

``The risk is that an adverse feedback loop will develop, in which problems in the housing market undercut the economy, causing even more stress in the housing and mortgage markets,'' Meyer and Harris wrote.

A homeowner usually receives a notice of default after falling more than 90 days behind on mortgage payments. If the borrower still doesn't pay what's owed, the property is sold to the highest bidder at an auction, typically held at a county courthouse. If bids don't reach a set amount, the lender takes ownership. Such houses are referred to as REO, or ``real estate- owned.''

Deluged

``One of the big problems is the banks have been deluged and are way behind in actually doing the foreclosures,'' said Alan Nevin, chief economist with the California Building Industry Association in San Diego. Nevin said he's forecasting lower foreclosure rates in California starting in the last three months of the year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aA1ZBbzQ6gzA&refer=home

---

First the homeowners, next the banks.

[ozymandius]

6. NYSE to propose new rules for floor traders: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange plans to modify the role of specialist traders on the exchange floor, giving them fewer privileges, but more freedom in the way they trade, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

The changes by the NYSE Euronext (NYX.N) unit, to be unveiled on Friday, would further overhaul the role that 'specialist' traders play, the Journal said. Specialists are floor traders that match buyers and sellers on the New York Stock Exchange floor to manage volatility.

Late last year, the NYSE began to rethink the role of specialists, who have been so named since 1871.

.....

Specialists would become 'designated market makers' under the new rules, and would no longer be able to have their own computer algorithms receive electronic orders before the orders are displayed publicly, the paper said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080613/bs_nm/nyse_traders_dc

[ozymandius]

7. Thornburg Mortgage swings to $3.31 billion 1Q loss

(redux from yesterday)

SANTA FE, N.M. - Thornburg Mortgage Inc. said Thursday it swung to a $3.31 billion loss in the first quarter, and expects loan delinquencies to continue to increase "modestly" for the rest of the year.

Before paying preferred dividends, Thornburg lost $3.31 billion, or $20.64 per share, for the quarter ended March 31, compared with profit of $75 million, or 62 cents per share, a year ago.

Thornburg specializes in larger mortgages, known as "jumbo loans," which total more than $417,000. The company says the value of securities it owns dropped drastically during the quarter amid a slowing economy and continued housing slump, forcing it to take market value losses of $1.54 billion.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080612/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_thornburg_mortgage

Thornburg's Losses Get Larger

It just keeps getting worse for Thornburg Mortgage.

...

The Santa Fe, N.M.-based company is a specialist in jumbo home loans, which are large mortgages that typically go to buyers of relatively expensive homes who have good credit.

The net loss before preferred stock dividends totaled $20.64 per share, compared with a profit of $75.0 million, or 62 cents per share, in the prior year. Thornburg had warned in May that it expected to report a substantial quarterly loss. A loss of $3.38, including charges, had been expected, according to TradeTheNews.com.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/06/12/thornburg-mortgage-closer-markets-equity-cx_ra_0612markets37.html

[ozymandius]

8. Yahoo seeks Google's aid after Microsoft talks die

SAN FRANCISCO - Yahoo Inc. became Microsoft Corp.'s takeover prey largely because Google Inc. established such a commanding lead in the Internet's lucrative search advertising market.

But after eluding Microsoft's grasp, Yahoo is now turning to Google to help squelch a rebellion among its shareholders who believe it should have accepted Microsoft's $47.5 billion buyout offer while it was still available last month.

Yahoo announced its decision to let Google handle some of its advertising sales late Thursday, just a few hours after revealing it unsuccessfully tried to persuade Microsoft to renew its previous offer of $33 per share. The snub caused Yahoo to conclude that there is no hope for any kind of deal with Microsoft.

.....

Yahoo and Google have voluntarily agreed to wait until late September to begin working together to give the government adequate time to review the arrangement. If it isn't blocked, the partnership could last for the next decade.

The antitrust scrutiny appears to be the least of Yahoo's worries for now.

The Sunnyvale-based company also is trying to fend off a shareholder mutiny led by activist investor Carl Icahn, who has vowed to replace the company's board because of the way the directors handled the Microsoft negotiations during the past 4 1/2 months.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080613/ap_on_hi_te/yahoo_microsoft

[ozymandius]

9. More airlines impose fee on first checked bag

United Airlines said Thursday that it would begin charging $15 for the first piece of checked luggage, becoming the second major U.S. airline to impose a fee for a service that has long been included in the fare.

The luggage charge for coach-class passengers on the nation's second-largest carrier was quickly matched by US Airways, raising the prospect that the other two big carriers, Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines, would follow suit.

Southwest Airlines is the only carrier that has publicly balked at -- and ridiculed -- the fee.

No. 1 carrier American Airlines initiated the controversial charge last month, citing the need to generate extra revenue to help offset the fast-rising cost of fuel.

American will begin adding the fee Sunday on tickets purchased for domestic flights. United's fee will apply to tickets purchased starting today for travel Aug. 18 and after.

US Airways said its luggage fee would be imposed on tickets purchased beginning July 9. It also will start charging $2 for sodas, juices, bottled water and coffee in coach Aug. 1, when it also will raise the price for alcoholic beverages.

http://www.latimes.com/business/careers/work/la-fi-united13-2008jun13,0,899225.story

[Dr.Phool]

15. Next they'll start charging you for searching you.

A shoe removal fee. A disposal fee for excess liquid. A premium for an aisle or window seat.

On my last flight, everyone's bags came off the carousel soaked and smelling of fuel. It's been 6 weeks, and still haven't had my complaint answered.

[antigop]

20. And a fee to turn the air on, the light on, seat reclining, use of seat belt,etc., etc.

[Hugin]

33. Looks like they're resorting to the 'Cell Phone Provider' business model...

Every button costs sumpthin'.

[ozymandius]

10. InBev May Water Down Bud's Marketing

Will the Clydesdales be put out to pasture?

InBev's bid to acquire Anheuser-Busch could have major ramifications for the media and advertising worlds, in particular the sports-marketing business.

If the deal gets done, InBev, which is known for its cost-cutting culture, could make deep cuts to Anheuser's massive ad and marketing budget as it seeks to gain efficiencies from the high-priced acquisition, according to beverage-industry analysts and advertising experts.

.....

Still, the brewer's marketing prowess has come with a hefty price tag. Anheuser has an enormous marketing and advertising budget -- shelling out about $500 million for ad time in the U.S annually and forking over a further $300 million for a bevy of sports sponsorships. Every year, it buys about 10 ads during the Super Bowl, the priciest real estate on TV, at a cost of roughly $20 million. With beer consumption relatively stagnant in the U.S., it is important for Bud, Bud Light and Michelob to fight for market share with big rivals, especially SABMiller, with whom it has long sparred in competitive ads.

.....

Experts say InBev will likely cut ad spending and use the savings to fight its competitors with price cuts -- the polar-opposite approach to Anheuser's. "The money InBev will spend will be on discounting and price wars, something that AB built its empire to avoid," says Bevmark's Mr. Pirko.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121331524057770021.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[ozymandius]

12. Bank of Japan Keeps Rate at 0.5% as It Examines Growth Risks

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan is watching the risk that higher oil and food prices will threaten economic growth as well as fan people's inflation expectations, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said after the central bank kept rates on hold.

Shirakawa and his six colleagues left the overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest among major economies, in a unanimous vote today in Tokyo.

Signs that higher prices are squeezing company earnings prompted the government to say this week that the nation's longest postwar expansion may be over. The bank today cut its evaluation of exports and corporate profits as a global slowdown crimps demand and surging costs erode margins.

.....

Producer-prices rose 4.7 percent in May, the fastest pace in almost three decades, the central bank said this week. Consumer prices advanced 0.9 percent in April, close to the fastest pace in a decade.

.....

Recent data suggest the world's second-largest economy is cooling even after growth surged at an annual 4 percent rate in the first quarter. Household spending had its biggest drop in 19 months in April, factory production slumped and the unemployment rate rose in the month.

The country's economic expansion will probably slow to ``near zero'' this quarter, according to Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&refer=home&sid=a.MvzUPb0yvg

[ozymandius]

13. Lehman Stock Buybacks Equalled Profits

Kudos to the New York Times' Floyd Norris for this little bombshell:

On March 18, when the company reported a profit for the first quarter, even as other firms were reporting losses — and just after Bear Stearns collapsed — Lehman had to confront rumors that had sent its share price tumbling. It did so with pride and confidence. Erin M. Callan, the relatively new chief financial officer, now deposed, spoke of “disciplined liquidity and capital management, which we consider to be a core competency.”

With hindsight, it is clear that it is specifically in the area of capital management that Lehman has done the worst job, notwithstanding the boasts. Its policy on share buybacks was to avoid the dilution caused by grants of restricted shares and options issued to employees, and that meant it bought back about as many shares as it issued.

.....

The net effect was that Lehman built up no cushion during the good times, and was ill-prepared for the bad times. The hubris reflected in the claim that it could “deliver strong results in all market environments” left it with an insufficient capital cushion when the market environment turned hostile.....

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/06/lehman-stock-buybacks-equalled-profits.html

[ozymandius]

14. Stock futures narrowly mixed ahead of consumer data

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stock futures were narrowly mixed Friday ahead of key data on inflation and consumer sentiment. Government bond prices extended their slump, driving yields on the 10-year Treasury to new highs for the year.

First up for the market will be the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. EDT, followed by the University of Michigan's report on consumer sentiment shortly before 10 a.m. Both reports will be an important gauge of inflation's impact on consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy; Wall Street has become more focused on consumer activity in recent weeks, especially with prices for oil and gasoline soaring.

The CPI report is expected to show that consumer prices in May rose at a faster rate than the prior month due mainly to surging energy costs.* The data is used as the government's primary inflation yardstick, and is forecast to show a 0.5 percent gain from April, according to economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

Meanwhile, the consumer sentiment survey for June is expected to show that Americans remain pessimistic about the economy as gas and food prices continue to rise. The market anticipates a reading of 59.8 -- the same as last month -- according to analysts.

Ahead of the consumer price report, Dow Jones industrial average futures were up 2, less than 0.01 percent, at 12,160. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures edged up 0.90, or 0.07 percent, to 1,344.10, while the Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 4.50, or 0.23 percent, to 1,934.50.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080613/wall_street.html

*Which is, of course, no big deal because this is just pesky background noise; otherwise outside "core" data. :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.232 Change +0.569 (+0.77%)

Can The G8 Stop Oil Before Prices Hit $200?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Can_The_G8_Stop_Oil1213304326976.html

Subprime crisis? Credit crunch? These issues have fallen by the wayside as the focus of investors, politicians and central bankers alike has shifted to the break-neck rise in oil prices. Concerns abound that the current rally will mirror the catastrophic economic fallout of the 1970s oil shocks. The parallels appear well-warranted: last week saw crude reach yet another record, trading at $139.12 dollars/barrel and surpassing the 1979 high of $136.28 (in today’s dollars). This weekend’s G8 Summit in Japan is set to focus on the matter as energy costs have crimped consumption, distorted trade figures, and fed global inflation. The markets will wait breathlessly to see if the final communiqué will include an unambiguous call on oil producing countries to boost production. With oil prices increasingly determined by the fate of the US dollar, forex traders will look to USDCAD to capture the volatility surrounding the meeting’s outcome.

Oil is the Primary Concern of Global Policy Makers

Global policy makers have been unanimous in voicing their concerns about the rising price of oil. Monday saw Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signal an end to monetary easing, saying that “latest round of increases in energy prices has added to the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations.” He added that " will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations, as an un-anchoring of those expectations would be destabilizing for growth as well as for inflation." The US is not alone – Japan’s Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda appealed for a rise in oil production following a pre-G8 meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, stressing that “Sudden rises in oil prices are hitting not only the world economy, but ordinary people's lives.” His Australian counterpart Kevin Rudd was less reserved, urging the G8 to “apply the blow-torch to the OPEC organization.” At one point or another, officials from every G8 country as well as those from China, India and South Korea have called on oil producers to increase supply.

Oil Prices Are in Step with the Direction of the US Dollar

All signs point to the conclusion that the fundamentals of crude production and consumption are not behind the current rise in prices. Rather, the current rally is primarily driven by speculative bets against the US dollar. As stocks fell to risk aversion and the US dollar tumbled, traders were desperate for a refuge destination to protect their assets. Blossoming demand for commodity imports from emerging markets such as India and China offered a rare positive story in an otherwise shaken marketplace, attracting huge inflows of speculative capital and leading prices to balloon higher. A recent analysis report prepared by Thomas Mayer and Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank highlights this development, pointing to big differences in returns between commodities and other asset classes from one year ago (see Figure 1).



...more...

US Dollar: 96% Chance of a September Rate Hike?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar__96__Chance_of_1213306717281.html

The US dollar has strengthened across the board following a much better than expected retail sales report. Consumer spending increased 1.0 percent in May, the strongest pace of growth in 6 months thanks to tax rebates and higher gasoline prices. Aside from the miscellaneous category, retail sales increased across the board. As the Bush Administration has hoped, Americans are spending rather than saving their tax rebates. This number indicates that the economy most likely skirted negative GDP growth in the second quarter which fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates before the end of the year. According to the latest Fed fund futures, the market has already priced in a 96 percent chance of at least a quarter point rate hike in September. There is a 67 percent chance that the rate hike could happen in August. These are difficult times for the Federal Reserve who knows that even though recent economic data reinforces their plans to keep interest rates steady, economic growth could easily falter in the coming months. However at the same time, inflation and inflation expectations continue to rise. Although crude oil prices have retraced, they are still hovering near record highs while floods in the Midwest have driven corn prices to all time highs. There is little respite for food and gasoline prices which is why the market believes that despite the risks to growth, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates and not just once. Consumer prices are due for release tomorrow and this will confirm or deny the need for a rate hike. When growth is weak, making inflation a top focus could lead to even weaker economic conditions in the future. Jobless claims jumped to the highest level since March while continuing claims reached their highest in 4 years. More people are losing jobs, raising the risk of a further slowdown in the US economy, but for the time being, the prospect of slower growth is a secondary priority for the Federal Reserve.

...more...

[antigop]

23. Bank of International Settlements warns of Great Depression (update)

The other day, I posted a link to an article about BIS (Bank of International Settlements):
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3349015&mesg_id=3349213

It mentioned the quarterly report. I think this is the link to that quarterly report:
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0806.pdf

It's a 93-page report and I haven't had time to read it yet. I just thought I would post it as a follow-up to my previous post.

I'm briefly checking in this AM and probably will not be able to reply.

Happy reading...

[DemReadingDU]

35. Thanks for the report

I had not heard of the Bank of International Settlements until yesterday.

I found one reference to BIS in The Google, for U.S.

6/12/08 Vince Farrell: I would like to point out a report the Bank for International Settlements issued the other day.

The BIS is a sort of central bank for central banks regarding economic research. They feel that the markdowns taken on AAA subprime bonds that were dictated by marking to the ABX index could be incorrect by up to 60 percent. And that the marks were 60 percent too great!

more...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25137053


Edit: Here's another reference to the BIS report

6/9/08 Amid CDS fears, insurers load up
Wow: In second half of 2007, the insurance industry dramatically upped its purchases of credit swaps

Insurance companies are ramping up their purchases of credit default swaps, according to a semi-annual report on the over-the-counter derivatives market issued recently by the Bank for International Settlements. The report also showed that annual growth in derivatives, especially credit default swaps, isn't abating and remains in the double digits.

The latter finding doesn't come as a surprise, but the fact that insurers, until now relatively minor players in the CDS market, have been buying many more such instruments, does.

The BIS report doesn't provide a reason for insurance companies' increased purchases of CDS. But possible conclusions from the data are that insurance companies either are trying to protect themselves from losses, existing or still to come, on bonds and other debt they hold, or are speculating that credit markets will turn even more bearish than they are now.

Insurers still represent only about 1% of all CDS transactions, based on notional outstanding value, while transactions between broker-dealers represent more than half, according to the BIS report.

But CDS to which insurance firms were a counterparty grew in notional value by 46% in the second half of 2007, while the total notional amount of CDS contracts outstanding grew just 36%.

more...
http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080609/REG/806090321/1004/COMPLIANCEGOVERNANCE

[Ghost Dog]

50. "I found one reference to BIS in The Google, for U.S." - weird.

see here: http://www.bis.org/

[DemReadingDU]

52. from Brian Turner, Editor, Banking Times

http://blog.nationbuilder.org/2008/06/bis-worlds-most-powerful-and-secret.html

Friday, June 13, 2008
The BIS - the World's Most Powerful and Secret Bank - Warns of Great Depression
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Central bank body warns of Great Depression
by Gill Montia

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s.

In its latest quarterly report, the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart.

According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.

The report points out that between March and May of this year, interbank lending continued to show signs of extreme stress and that this could be set to continue well into the future.

It also raises concerns about the Chinese economy and questions whether China may be repeating mistakes made by Japan, with its so called bubble economy of the late 1980s.

EDITORS NOTE: Quite a few comments have been made that there is no direct reference to the Great Depression in this month’s BIS report.

While this is strictly true, BIS warned in June 2007 - just before the Credit Crunch really hit - that the global economy was vulnerable to a major economic set-back because of extraordinary exposure to collateralized credit.

BIS directly made references to the 1930’s as an example of a similarly serious credit bubble, and this month’s BIS report describes the conditions of this being lived out.

So, to be pedantic, the warning “BIS warns of Great Depression” is actually a year old already. What BIS discusses now is the fragility of existing conditions of the fall-out from a massive credit bubble bursting - which has already been made clear across their reports historically can be similarly referenced to the 1930’s, though stated in a typically conservative and non-alarmist language.

Even what optimism BIS had about a weak recovery to the end of May 2008 have been dashed by extreme shorting of financial stocks across the US and UK - Lehman Brothers, HBOS, and property developers such as Barratts, have all taken extreme beatings in June 2008.

So back to the headline - BIS have indeed already warned of repeat of conditions that could be as extreme as the Great Depression, and are now describing that process as we move through it.

In the meantime, unemployment is already on the rise on both sides of the pond, and the analogy some people have concerns about I’m afraid are still salient.

- Brian Turner, Editor, Banking Times.
http://www.bankingtimes.co.uk/09062008-central-bank-body-warns-of-great-depression/

[DemReadingDU]

53. Bloomberg: Money Markets Will Show Strains Well Into Future: BIS

June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Strains in money markets will probably stay ``severe well into the future'' as banks struggle to raise cash and credit-market losses deepen, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

The difference, or spread, between London interbank offered rates for the dollar and overnight index swap rates was as wide in May as three months earlier, indicating ``money markets continued to show clear signs of extreme stress,'' the Basel, Switzerland- based BIS wrote in a quarterly report. The BIS was formed in 1930 and acts as a central bank for the world's monetary authorities.

``This appeared to imply expectations that interbank strains were likely to remain severe well into the future,'' BIS analysts Ingo Fender and Peter Hordahl wrote in the report. ``With market rumors proliferating about imminent liquidity problems in one or more large investment banks, banks became increasingly wary of lending to others.''

Banks' reluctance to lend may slow a recovery in the world's biggest economies after the seizure in money markets that began last year sent stocks tumbling and prompted central banks to pump cash into the financial system. Banks have suffered about $390 billion of losses and writedowns from mortgage-related securities since the start of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-biggest U.S. securities firm, reported a $2.8 billion second-quarter loss today and raised $6 billion to help it survive the collapse of the mortgage market.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a_0JQlTbMHyE&refer=us


Edit: This reference was not in The Google this morning. There aren't many U.S. websites that report on the BIS.

[UpInArms]

24. S&P reveals error made in CPDO rating model

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL1363473320080613?sp=true

LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's said on Friday it had discovered an error in a model for rating complex debt products, but the mistake did not lead to any changes in the transactions' ratings.

S&P said the error had been found in a trial version of one of its models that had been used to rate five public constant proportion debt obligations (CPDOs).

S&P said it had disclosed the situation to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

"In responding to an SEC inquiry regarding our CPDO, CDO and RMBS ratings and models, S&P was pleased to report an external review found no erroneous rating assigned as a result of an error in a model," the rating agency said in a statement. "This error did not result in a ratings change and was caught and remedied by our ratings process."

Ratings agencies have come under fire over their role in the U.S. mortgage crisis, with allegations that they assigned ratings that were too high for bonds backed by poor quality mortgages.

The Financial Times reported last month that a coding error in a Moody's Investors Service computer model caused some CPDOs to be assigned a rating four levels higher than merited, and that Moody's did not correct the error quickly.

...more...

:wow: Who would have believed that S&P and Moody's would both have error codes in the ratings?

:shakesheadattheliestheytell:

[Dr.Phool]

29. And who designs the software for their models?

Diebold? ES&S?

Just a computer glitch. Nothing to see here.

[TalkingDog]

41. Really, it was just a soda on the control panel

I swear to God!

[UpInArms]

25. Probe focuses on AIG financial products: WSJ

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1340737120080613

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc's (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) financial-products division, already burnt by accounting issues, is coming under scrutiny in government probes, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Justice Department are investigating whether the insurer intentionally overstated the value of subprime mortgage-linked contracts.

The division specializes in credit-default swaps, contracts that are at the heart of the mortgage crisis.

Regulators are focused on an investor presentation held on December 5, the Journal said, at which both AIG Chief Executive Martin Sullivan and former financial-products chief Joseph Cassano said risks from the roiling subprime crisis were unlikely to cause the insurer major damage.

"U.S. residential housing exposures are manageable given AIG's size, financial strength and diversified global businesses," Sullivan said at the investor presentation, adding that the possibility that his AIG financial products unit would sustain a loss was "close to zero."

In May, AIG raised $20 billion of capital that Citigroup said in a research report was largely geared towards shoring up the division, which had admitted to violating accounting rules.

...more...

What? My Lai?

[UpInArms]

26. US Airways to cut capacity, 1,700 jobs on higher fuel costs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-airways-cut-jobs-increase/story.aspx?guid=%7B4B55D4A0%2D28EE%2D4609%2DA2E7%2D9E1E63AC193D%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- US Airways said Thursday it will slash 1,700 jobs and cut capacity by as much as 8%, as the troubled airline struggles to contend with a growing fuel crisis.

US Airways (LCC) also said it is canceling the leases on aircraft
scheduled for delivery, charging for checked baggage, introducing a new in-flight beverage program and increasing fees associated with employee guest and parent travel programs.

"Our industry is profoundly challenged by the dramatic increase in fuel prices, and we must write a new playbook for running a profitable airline in this new and challenging environment," Chairman and Chief Executive Doug Parker said in a news release.

The airline said jet fuel costs have nearly doubled in the past year, driving up annual energy expenses by $1.9 billion. The company reported a profit of $427 million last year. But fuel now accounts for 39% of total expenses; it was 14% in 2000.

Roughly 300 pilots, 400 flight attendants, 800 airport employees and 200 staff members will be eliminated from the company's ranks, US Airways said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Treasury building loses power; part of larger DC-area outage

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/treasury-building-loses-power-part/story.aspx?guid=%7B66D4799E%2DCB60%2D4099%2D8FBD%2D7B81C030F8A0%7D&dist=msr_1

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury building is without power Friday morning along with several other downtown buildings in Washington, D.C.

A Treasury spokeswoman couldn't immediately comment on the situation.

A Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority spokeswoman said there was a small fire on a subway track near the Dupont Circle Metrorail station Friday morning, but emergency responders have put it out. It's unclear if the power outage is related to that incident.

[burf]

31. OMG

did that mean the printing press were stopped? Happy Friday the 13th everyone!

[UpInArms]

32. it's prolly okay, burf - I'm certain they already outsourced the actual printing

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

39. Bush and Cheney cut the power to make one last heist.

[UpInArms]

34. 9:47 EST DOW failed to hold the P-I-L of 12,200

Dow 12,174.31 32.73 (0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,419.45 15.10 (0.63%)
S&P 500 1,342.55 2.68 (0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.215% 0.01

NYSE Volume 258,817,546.875
Nasdaq Volume 150,032,265.625

09:45 am : Stocks have started the session well on a positive note. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is leading its counterparts, sporting the largest gain thus far.

Seven of the ten major economic sectors are trading in the green. Telecom (-0.4%), financials (-0.1%), and consumer staples (-0.4%) are the sectors sporting losses.DJ30 +43.48 NASDAQ +13.42 SP500 +4.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 603/1633/129 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 853/1771/85 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.2. Just ahead of opening bell stock futures continue to indicate that Friday's trading will open in positive ground as investors look to conclude the week with a gain.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.5. Stock futures are now indicating a decidedly upward open to Friday's trading. Yahoo! announced it reached a business agreement with Google that will enhance its competitiveness in Internet search and display markets.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.8. S&P futures have taken a dip shortly after the release of the latest batch of consumer inflationary data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May increased 0.6% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year. Economists, on average, were forecasting a monthly increase of 0.5% and an annualized increase of 3.9%. Excluding food and energy, the May CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, matching estimates.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.2. Stock futures are indicating a mixed start to Friday's action. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Anheuser-Busch is in talks with Grupo Modelo as part of an effort to thwart InBev's unsolicited takeover bid. Separately, a CNBC reporter stated Exxon Mobil is intending to sell its retail gasoline business locations.

(edited to add the 9:45 blather)

[UpInArms]

37. 10:02 Alternate Universe Exposed - jumping and jiving upward

Dow 12,221.78 80.20 (0.66%)
Nasdaq 2,431.43 27.08 (1.13%)
S&P 500 1,347.53 7.66 (0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.223% 0.018

NYSE Volume 448,982,968.75
Nasdaq Volume 271,476,000

[Cal Carpenter]

38. Now THIS is the kind of day

I should be checking the SMW thread :P

[TalkingDog]

42. Hi Cal Carpenter! Welcome to DU!

And welcome to the SMW thread.

We always need handy folks to keep us on the level....(okay..that slays them at job sites) And remember what Red Greene says: Women may not find you handsome, but they'll always find you handy.

Have fun.

[Cal Carpenter]

45. Har-de-har

:-)

Thanks for the welcome...I dropped in here the other day when things weren't looking so good. I preferred life when I had no idea what was going on, but it's too late now.

I'll get to retire some day, really I will :)

And in the meantime, I'll make the most of being handier than I am handsome.

[DemReadingDU]

43. Ireland votes No on Lisbon Treaty

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/ireland-votes-no-on-lisbon-treaty.html


6/13/08
The Lisbon Treaty, which was to give the European Union more say over matters in EU member states received a vote of no confidence from Ireland. The result was 52% against and 48% for. Just as with the EU constitution, there is great resistance from member states to the bureaucratic control of the EU over political and social affairs.

What this will mean for Europe's economy is still unclear but it has overtones that will reflect negatively on the Euro, another EU construct that is not viewed favourably by all who a part.

"Ireland has voted No to the Lisbon Treaty, plunging the European Union into a new crisis.

With results coming in from across the country, a final result of 52 per cent against and 48 per cent in favour of the treaty was rapidly hardening. A final declaration is not expected until after 4 pm.

The Lisbon Treaty, the reworked successor to the formal constitutional pact dumped by voters in France and the Netherlands in 2005, officially needs the approval of all 27 EU member states. But only in Ireland has it been put to a popular vote, meaning today's result may have far-reaching consequences for the entire bloc.

Barely two hours after the count began today, the No camp had already started celebrating, while senior Fianna Fail strategists privately and glumly conceded their defeat."

more...
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4128055.ece


6/13/08 Ireland faces two-year recession, ex-central banker says

The U.S., U.K., Spain and Ireland face recessions of up to two years because inflation will prevent interest-rate cuts, said Sir Howard Davies, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England.

Davies, an adviser to China's banking and securities regulators, spoke in an interview today in Beijing.

Central banks are battling to douse inflation and sustain growth in the face of soaring oil and food prices and a global credit crunch. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week pledged to ``strongly resist'' any surge in inflation expectations.

``The cavalry came over the hill in the form of lower interest rates but there's no more cavalry,'' said Davies, who is chairman of the London School of Economics and the former head of the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority. ``Central banks will focus now more on inflation and that means further interest-rate cuts to bolster the markets will not occur.''

Inflation has become a bigger threat to the global economy than fallout from the subprime loan crisis in the U.S., Davies said, adding the U.S. will stop cutting rates and the European Central Bank will probably raise them.

The economic climate ``is the most difficult situation for central banks that I can recall,'' he said.

more...
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-faces-twoyear-.htmlssion-excentral-banker-says-1408543.html

[TrogL]

44. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-05-02 Friday, May 2 0.982125 USD
2008-05-05 Monday, May 5 0.987654 USD
2008-05-06 Tuesday, May 6 0.996413 USD
2008-05-07 Wednesday, May 7 0.998004 USD
2008-05-08 Thursday, May 8 0.985319 USD
2008-05-09 Friday, May 9 0.993838 USD
2008-05-12 Monday, May 12 0.996314 USD
2008-05-13 Tuesday, May 13 1.0004 USD
2008-05-14 Wednesday, May 14 0.998203 USD
2008-05-15 Thursday, May 15 1.0004 USD
2008-05-16 Friday, May 16 1.00341 USD
2008-05-19 Monday, May 19 1.00867 USD
2008-05-20 Tuesday, May 20 1.00725 USD
2008-05-21 Wednesday, May 21 1.01626 USD
2008-05-22 Thursday, May 22 1.0141 USD
2008-05-23 Friday, May 23 1.01184 USD
2008-05-26 Monday, May 26 1.01184 USD
2008-05-27 Tuesday, May 27 1.00685 USD
2008-05-28 Wednesday, May 28 1.00878 USD
2008-05-29 Thursday, May 29 1.01307 USD
2008-05-30 Friday, May 30 1.00624 USD
2008-06-02 Monday, June 2 0.998901 USD
2008-06-03 Tuesday, June 3 0.994926 USD
2008-06-04 Wednesday, June 4 0.985707 USD
2008-06-05 Thursday, June 5 0.980873 USD
2008-06-06 Friday, June 6 0.981643 USD
2008-06-09 Monday, June 9 0.978186 USD
2008-06-10 Tuesday, June 10 0.976467 USD
2008-06-11 Wednesday, June 11 0.983284 USD
2008-06-12 Thursday, June 12 0.977517 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.9754 0.9754 0.9724 0.9724 -0.0055 -0.56% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9738 0.9746 0.9738 0.9742 -0.0033 -0.34% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9733 0.9738 0.9725 0.9725 -0.0041 -0.42% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9800 0.9800 0.9800 0.9766 -0.0030 -0.31% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9757 0.9757        0.9765 -0.0030 -0.31% 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9995 0.9995        0.9763 -0.0031 -0.32% 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9865 0.9865 0.9865 0.9761 -0.0030 -0.31% 


 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9554 0.9554 0.9554 0.9554 -0.0105 -1.10%   
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP) 
MP.M08.E Jun 2008 (E) 1.9458 1.9458 1.9420 1.9420 -0.0325 -1.67% 
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.M08.E Jun 2008 (E) 0.78820 0.78920 0.78780 0.78790 -0.00585 -0.74%    
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.M08.E Jun 2008 (E) 165.79 165.79 165.79 165.79 -0.61 -0.37%     
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.M08.E Jun 2008 (E) 1.5352 1.5352 1.5327 1.5339 -0.0334 -2.13%    

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 96.69 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.23. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 98.48. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 96.86. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.69.


Analysis

There's nothing going on. Why's it crashing?

[TrogL]

51. Closing blather

The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday extending this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 96.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 98.19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.53. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 97.05 then is April's low crossing at 96.68.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

46. Natural gas.

Tiptoeing.

[ozymandius]

47. 3:05 and the Bong Show is smokin'.

Dow 12,255.81 Up 114.23 (0.94%)
Nasdaq 2,441.74 Up 37.39 (1.56%)
S&P 500 1,353.35 Up 13.48 (1.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.245% Up 0.04
NYSE Volume N/A
Nasdaq Volume 1,617,580,875

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 climbs off its session lows, but the recovery effort stalls after running into some resistance at the 1350 level.

Financials (+0.2%) are struggling to advance, but Lehman Brothers (LEH 25.36, +2.66) -- which has been at the center of the market's recent downturn -- is up 10%. The buying interest is fueled by a Bloomberg.com report that BlackRock (BLK 208.00, +5.05) bought shares of Lehman and has confidence in the firm, including the company's leadership. BlackRock said speculation that it is going to acquire Lehman is "completely unfounded," according to the article.

On the other end of the spectrum, Fifth Third Bank (FITB 12.76, -1.93) tumbled 13% after the regional bank was downgraded at BMO Capital.DJ30 +70.67 NASDAQ +28.74 SP500 +8.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1070/1738/1.46 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1171/1879/783 mln

2:00 pm : Stocks have trended lower in early afternoon action, but have recently made a slight upturn. The Nasdaq is the only major index to hold on to its 1.0% gain.

According to Reuters' sources, Time Warner (TWX 15.18, +0.27) is pulling its bid for Weather Channel due to price. Reuters also noted that Time Warner's CFO told investors last week the company would be extremely price disciplined and sensitive in pursuing the deal; the deadline for a new bid passed at noon today.DJ30 +55.28 NASDAQ +25.27 SP500 +6.55 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1055/1751/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1192/1853/724 mln

[ozymandius]

49. Stoners flood the market. The Bong Show's a Big Hit.

The trading floor looks like a grocery store cookie aisle in a head neighborhood.

Dow 12,307.35 Up 165.77 (1.37%)
Nasdaq 2,454.50 Up 50.15 (2.09%)
S&P 500 1,360.03 Up 20.16 (1.50%)
10-Yr Bond 4.261% Up 0.056
NYSE Volume N/A
Nasdaq Volume 2,044,812,625

4:10 pm : Stocks spiked in the final minutes of Friday’s session, ending the session with a 1.5% gain. The day’s optimistic tone was established early on as oil prices stepped lower and core economic data met economists’ expectations. The session’s advance helped positioned stocks to finish the week just below the unchanged mark.

Crude prices closed down $1.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, settling at $134.84 per barrel and finishing the week roughly 2.7% lower. The sustained drop in oil prices helped provide airline and transportation stocks a healthy lift. The Amex Airline Index climbed 4.3% and the Dow Jones Transportation Average advanced 1.4%.

Consumer prices increased 0.6% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, according to the May CPI data. Economists were forecasting a monthly increase of 0.5% and an annualized increase of 3.9%. Core CPI data, which excludes food and energy, indicated prices increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, which is in-line with the consensus.

Notably, the figures are unlikely to alter inflationary expectations. Still, a key issue going forward remains the broader implications of commodity price pressures, especially as they relate to energy.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment survey for June rang in at 56.7, falling below economists’ expectations. The June reading is down from 59.8 in May and marks the fifth straight month-over-month decline.

The abundance of Friday’s major corporate headlines were dedicated to deal making. Multiple sources reported that Anheuser-Busch (BUD 61.24, -0.16) has approached Mexico’s Grupo Modelo, seeking an arrangement that would block an unsolicited bid from Belgian brewer InBev.

Yesterday Yahoo! (YHOO 23.47, -0.05) announced it failed to reach an agreement with Microsoft (MSFT 29.07, +0.83), but is has, instead, decided to team up with Google (GOOG 571.51, +21.02) to increase its competitiveness in Internet search and display markets. Shares of YHOO spent nearly the entire session trading lower, but MSFT and GOOG made solid gains.

Oil giant Exxon Mobil (XOM 88.36, +1.30) is planning to divest its domestic retail gasoline business over the next few years, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company plans to sell most of the stations to distributors that already own and operate many of the stations.

According to Reuters' sources, Time Warner (TWX 15.43, +0.52) is pulling its bid for Weather Channel. Time Warner reportedly backed out of the offer after reconsidering the price of the deal.

The 10-year Treasury Note fell further out of favor in afternoon trading, pushing its yield to its highest level this year. The Note fell 11 ticks. Its yield climbed to 4.26%.DJ30 +165.77 NASDAQ +50.15 SP500 +20.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 808/2065/2.1 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 845/2271/1.22 bln

[Roland99]

54. I kept seeing reference on CNBC to "tame inflation"

uhhhhhhh

[ozymandius]

55. Just heard on the radio show Marketplace

They're making fun of that "tame" inflation. Do you think the people who see tame inflation have a sink full of gin bottles at home?