Texas poll shows dead heat among Dems

[David Zephyr]

Source: CNN

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries March 4.

In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 4½ percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.

Two recent polls by other organizations also show the race statistically even.


Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/18/poll.texas/index.html

[MoJoWorkin]

1. It will only get better, starting tomorrow, with his first appearance in TX.

He went to Austin last year, but it will be his first, I believe in this campaign cycle.

[Justitia]

4. Houston Toyota Center (where the Rockets play) - all tickets GONE. -eom

[Lone_Star_Dem]

2. It's going to be an exciting horse race.

Personally, I'm looking forward to wallowing in the political experience of March 4th.

[Justitia]

3. Ack! It's making me so nervous! I never dreamed TX would be so Dem important! -eom

[RedEarth]

5. Obamanos!

[Justitia]

6. I like this, it's catchy. Is it pronounced like the spanish word "Vamanos"? -eom

[RedEarth]

15. I like it too.....I pronounce it just like vamanos!....... Obamanos!!!

[EFerrari]

7. The seven biggest papers in TX have endorsed Obama

according to the Obama site.

[Winterblues]

8. That says to me Republicans like him and feel more comfortable with him than Hillary

As a died in the wool Liberal that gives me pause...It is beginning to appear like either Republicans feel a black man will be easier to beat or else they like what he stands for..:shrug:

[JeanGrey]

10. It's over for Hillary. I'm sorry, but it's over. Obama is going to

win and win big. Even republicans are backing him. The sad thing is going to be watching the Clinton's get uglier and uglier and the days go on. I just wish she would get to a point where she would give up with honor instead of trying other stuff. In any event, it isn't going to work.

[Henny Penny]

23. "Even republicans are backing him!"... how true...

and doesn't that give you pause for thought... ?

[JeanGrey]

25. No, it doesn't. Hillary is widely viewed by them as easier to

beat and they would prefer her to Obama. The republicans that are backing him actually like him.

[EFerrari]

26. The creep from American Spectator said as much this morning

on Washington Journal.

[JeanGrey]

29. Yup.

[catgirl]

27. No, they've come to their senses

I think everyone, not just dems, are ready for postitve change.
What it says, is they believe Hillary is the same 'ole. I agree.

[ohio2007]

11. it says to me the party will go into a deadlocked convention floor vote

just what the TV network and their ratings bean counters hope for.


How much dirty laundry will both dem sides expose and throw at each other ?

[yellowcanine]

30. If Obama takes Texas or even comes close there will be no deadlock.

Because if it is more or less even Obama is going to get more delegates - the urban areas have proportionately more delegates because they were "more blue" in the 2004 election. Strange rules but those are the rules. The candidate who captures more of the urban vote gets the lion's share of the delegates. Obama is going to go into Texas and Ohio with a lead in delegates. At worst he will come out of next Tuesday holding as big a lead and he very likely will increase his lead. It is hard to see how Hillary makes up the gap. PA alone will not do it and may not even change things much. That is the situation.

[primavera]

31. It's the superdelegates that worry me

They're all part of that old boy network of insiders of which Hillary is so much more a part than Obama. Hopefully they will not want to so profoundly disillusion an electorate that's presently all charged up and ready to go tackle the Repukes, but you never know...

[yellowcanine]

32. Not me. Most are waiting to see which way things are breaking. Many will break for Obama this week

more will break his way next week after Ohio and Texas if Hillary treads water or loses ground. She has to win big now in both Texas and Ohio to stop the bleeding. It is not going to happen. There will also be many defections of Hillary SDs this week and next. The shark was jumped tonight.

[EFerrari]

13. There's very little light between Obama and Clinton. n/t

[Zhade]

34. Although he's not my candidate, at least Obama hasn't said he'll pick his presidential powers...

...like Clinton has.

That's something, anyway.

(And you have to admit, it'll be nice to see those "Clinton = destined for the presidency" assholes finally shut the fuck up and witness that their anointed one ain't so.)

[ohio2007]

9. the actual polls open March 4rth. These 'make news' pollsters will be called out and wrong as usual

They just want to give the Hillary minions hope that the super delegates will usurp the convention vote

[Malva Zebrina]

12. Oh my goodness and Texas was her firewall

If she does not win big in Wisconsin or Texas, I think she better just throw in the towel.

[smubossirossi]

14. i knew it...

I go to SMU in dallas and I hardly see any hillary stickers but I have seen a ton of Obama stickers around the DFW area

Its really exciting as a 21 yr old to see students and young people in general getting involved in politics most of the time we feel ignored and its just good to see my generation getting motivated, involved and vested in their own future.

This is my first post of what i am sure will be many howdy ya'll from the lone star state!!

[OnionPatch]

17. Thanks for the report.

It's good to know people are getting fired up for Obama in Texas.

And welcome to DU! :hi:

[Justitia]

20. A robust welcome! SMU is a beautiful campus, I used to live in the area. -eom

[RamboLiberal]

16. Don't forget this factor that could have Obama coming out with

more delegates.

Supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are worried that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her among Hispanic voters there, creating a new obstacle for her in the must-win presidential primary contest.

Several top Clinton strategists and fundraisers became alarmed after learning of the state's unusual provisions during a closed-door strategy meeting this month, according to one person who attended.

What Clinton aides discovered is that in certain targeted districts, such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa's heavily Hispanic Senate district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates. At the same time, a win in the more urban districts in Dallas and Houston -- where Sen. Barack Obama expects to receive significant support -- could yield three or four times as many delegates.

"What it means is, she could win the popular vote and still lose the race for delegates," Hinojosa said yesterday. "This system does not necessarily represent the opinions of the population, and that is a serious problem."

-----

Texas Democratic Party officials said there is a good reason that some senatorial districts yield two or three delegates while others yield seven or, in one Austin district, eight. The numbers are determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) in the 2004 presidential campaign and for Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/17/AR2008021702461.html

[yellowcanine]

33. The fact that Clinton strategists only figured out the Texas rules last month shows how unprepared

Clinton was for a long primary fight. The strategy was to secure a big win on Super Tuesday and finish Obama off by Wisconsin. The idea of a Texas and Ohio "firewall" only came up after Obama fought Clinton to a draw on Super Tuesday. The Clinton campaign was overconfident and it cost them. They also made a huge mistake in focusing on the big states. That might have been a good strategy in a winner take all primary system but with proportional representation it is a losing strategy, as Obama scored bigger wins in the smaller states while staying close enough in big states to almost have parity in delegate share. Clinton got out maneuvered.

[rainbow4321]

18. Recent Latino (subgroup) poll showed

HRC with only a 2 point lead (44-42)---not exactly the full Latino support that HRC's Texas camp has been counting on/bragging about in the past few weeks. They seemed to think this group would make a TX win inevitable for her.

[EFerrari]

19. The Latino vote is like a slush fund. n/t

[Ishoutandscream2]

21. More anecdotal evidence from your North Texas reporter

Red country. Another Republican friend is voting Obama. I keep hearing these testimonials. It's mind boggling.

[Henny Penny]

24. LOL... haven't Rush Limbaugh et al been saying to their fans... "get Clinton out"? n/t

[catgirl]

28. Coulter and Limbaugh pretend to be pro Hillary

but many moderate republicans will swing to Obama, which
is good news for the general elections.

[Jack_DeLeon]

22. I've thrown my lot in with Hillary because of the guns issue...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=118x157739

I dont really like the anti-gun stances of either candidate but I think Obama would be worse for gun rights than Hillary would.

Also my mom will be happy because thats who she wants to win too.