NPR reveals latest Fields California poll results

[grantcart]

Source: National Public Radio morning interview with Fields

Clinton 39%
Obama 27%
Edwards 10%

Undecided 20%

Read more: http://www.pollster.com/08-CA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

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I thought the most interesting stat was 20% undecided. It shows how volatile the state still is. Earlier polls in January had Clinton at 47-50%


Now have the full poll details here (includes ethnic breakdown)

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2260.pdf

[Yael]

1. Whats the MOE?

[meegbear]

2. ...

[Hugin]

4. ...

Beat me to it. :rofl:

[CreekDog]

19. Why I oughta...

:wow:

[Hugin]

20. Nyuck! Nyuck!

Woohooohooohoooo!

:yoiks:

[CreekDog]

21. Think that's funny?!

how about this: :spank:

[Hugin]

22. Hey! Watch it...

That's my good side! :D

[geardaddy]

26. "Spread out you chowderheads!"

[grantcart]

9. MOE 5.2%

[Yael]

23. Thanks!

Welcome to DU! :hi:

Here is another term you might here: The Keith Number.

That is MOE + Undecided (25.2% in this case).

Named for Keith Olbernmann by Keith Olbermann. :)

[Yael]

24. Thats not a whats the Moe, thats a WHOs the Moe?

:spank:

[grantcart]

6. this will obviously show my relative newcomer status

what is MOE? thank you

[bigworld]

7. Margin Of Error

[Kolesar]

8. Head slap

"Margin of error" +/-

Welcome to the underground! :hi:

[grantcart]

12. tks

[Hugin]

11. Here's a link explaining it...

Seems fairly factual. Explains "Margin of Error" and problems associated with them down the page.

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html

[papau]

10. MOE=5.2%

[aquart]

16. That's a bit wide. So nobody knows what's going on there.

[papau]

25. True - 2/5 will be interesting

[marlakay]

3. I find the money interesting

I was looking at CNN follow the money thing this morning and its interesting to see which states give what money to who and Hillary has the most in CA so far but Obama is very close.

A lot of people in CA wanted Gore and I understand as I wanted him to and its hard to decide who to vote for.

A vote for someone you really believe in might make Hillary the winner...that may not be the way Obama wants his votes but I wonder how many will vote for him to keep her out??

[brianr]

5. Obama Is Going to Close the Gap

He's going to get a nice lift in South Carolina, but probably lose Florida. I see California has his big ticket to the dance in November.

[goodgd_yall]

13. Of the undecided vote

most is made up of women 65 and older who usually prefer Clinton.

Edwards' supporters who may switch to their 2nd choice by Feb. 5 mostly prefer Obama, but 11% of them have Clinton as their second choice. (Paraphrased from the same source in an article in The Sacramento Bee.)

[grantcart]

17. while true a little misleading

29% Obama
11% Clinton
12% Other

48% Undecided

[goodgd_yall]

31. I assume this is the Edwards second choice percentages

That leaves a lot of unknowns. Those percentages confirm to me that California may be another tight race.

[CoffeeCat]

14. If you look at all of the state polls...

of the states that have voted (Iowa, NH, NV) and also the SC polls--Hillary was
once up by 10-25 points in each state.

The campaigns have not had their "effect" yet on states in which the campaigns
have not been as much.

Remember, for a long time, Hillary was the "inevitable" Dem nominee. I remember
constantly hearing that no one would catch up to Hillary. She was constantly
referred to as the "obvious frontrunner." Combined with her name recognition,
this long stretch of being the assumed frontrunner--gave her a significant
lead in the polls. As early as one year ago, most people knew very little
about Obama and weren't hearing anything about Edwards, Dodd, Richardson or Kucinich.

This stuff still lingers in the states in which the candidates haven't spent a great
deal of time. However, each time--when the campaigns roll in, the race tightens and
Obama does well.

Obama won Iowa after being behind by points. He lost NH only by a few points, after
being behind in double digits. In NV, he lost by 6 points, but came from a 20 point
deficit (and ended up winning more delegates than Hillary). Now, he's set to win SC,
after being behind by double digits.

That's huge. It shows that Clinton's initial support is soft. People are looking
for something else and when they meet Barack Obama---significant numbers shift into
his camp.

[redqueen]

15. 20% undecided!

GO EDWARDS!

:kick:

[stimbox]

18. No mention of Kucinich? Why am I not shocked. n/t

[bill]

27. the Keith Number

With a 5.2% MoE plus 20% undecided, the KN is 25.2% so Edwards could receive 35% of the vote :)

[grantcart]

28. not only is the KN 25.2

the polls wide jerks over the last 4 months show that the Clinton number is soft

[cally]

29. Many Californians have already voted absentee

I think about 40 percent vote absentee. I've already voted.

[Frances]

30. My husband and I have our absentee ballots on my desk

How did you vote on the initiatives?

By the way, I HATE the initiative process. A guy was collecting signatures at my supermarket last week. When I asked if he was getting paid, he said, "Of course."

Back in Maryland, if I was interested in an issue, I called my representative and expressed my views. It cost me nothing.

Out here, it's all about money. Someone with deep pockets pays people to collect signatures for their pet project. Half the time people don't even know what they're signing. They just listen to a spiel by the person doing the collecting (the spiel may or may not be factually correct) and sign.

[Raine]

34. I HATE the initiatives too

it seems like that is what the legislature should be taking care of plus anyone with money and a half-crocked idea can get some ridiculous crap on the ballot. x(

[cally]

35. I hate initiatives, also but here's how I voted

I voted for the community college initiative and the change in term limits and no on everything else. I voted for the change in term limits because I believe legislators need to develop expertise and seniority to deal with state problems. I've talked to staff in Sacto and all believe the legislature has changed for the worst with the term limits.

I also voted for community colleges. This is one place where low and moderate income can get an education. The community colleges don't have the political clout in Sacto to get their funding but I believe they are a tremendous resource to the state.

[goodgd_yall]

32. I probably won't be turning in my absentee ballot until the last minute.

Not because I don't know who I'm voting for, but because I'm away from my residence where my ballot was sent right now.

[Raine]

33. I don't like voting absentee

cause sometimes I have a change of mind as I get more information especially regarding initiatives.