STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 15

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday January 15, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 371 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2552 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2276 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2237
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 14, 2008

Dow... 12,778.15 +171.85 (+1.36%)
Nasdaq... 2,478.30 +38.36 (+1.57%)
S&P 500... 1,416.25 +15.23 (+1.09%)
Gold future... 903.40 +5.70 (+0.63%)
30-Year Bond 4.37% -0.02 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.79% -0.02 (-0.45%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Reading Tea Leaves

BY ROB KIRBY

Tomorrow, January 15, 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to release their report for December Producer Price Inflation (PPI). Last month at this time the BLS reported a steep rise in prices for November led by stiff increases in prices of crude oil.

As the updated chart below will attest, the energy component of Nov. PPI reported last month – as measured by the proxy West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – indeed reflects a large price increase in the Oct. – Nov. time frame.

When this news broke, stock markets dropped, bonds experienced a mild sell-off (temporarily higher yields) and the price of gold attempted to rally.
.....

As I reported last month in an article titled The Invisible Hand, in recent months the “sample date” on which crude oil prices are measured as inputs into the PPI tend to be the “lows” for the month.

This is extremely indicative, if not proof positive, that crude oil prices are and have been managed and/or rigged.

And Here’s Why We All Should Care

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Retail Sales Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.0%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 1.2%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Dec
Briefing Forecast -0.1%
Market Expects -0.1%
Prior 1.8%

8:30 AM PPI Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 3.2%

8:30 AM Core PPI Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Jan
Briefing Forecast 13.0
Market Expects 10.0
Prior 10.3

10:00 AM Business Inventories Nov
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.1%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

20. 8:30 reports - watch out below!

30. Jan. Empire state shipments index 15.8 vs. 20.4
8:35 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 43 minutes ago

31. Jan. Empire state new orders index 0 vs. 13.2
8:35 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 43 minutes ago

32. Jan. Empire state index 9.0 vs. 9.8 in Dec
8:35 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 43 minutes ago

36. U.S. Dec. gas station sales fall 1.7%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 48 minutes ago

37. U.S. Dec. retail sales ex-autos, ex-gas fall 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 48 minutes ago

38. U.S. Dec. core PPI up 2.0% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 48 minutes ago

39. U.S. 2007 retail sales up 4.2%, slowest growth in 5 years
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 48 minutes ago

40. U.S. Dec. PPI up 6.3% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 48 minutes ago

41. U.S. Dec. auto sales fall 0.4%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

42. U.S. Dec. intermediate PPI down 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

43. U.S. Dec. retail sales ex-autos fall 0.4% vs. -0.1% expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

44. U.S. Dec. crude goods PPI up 1.0%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

45. U.S. Dec. retail sales fall 0.4% vs. 0.1% gain expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

46. U.S. Dec. PPI energy prices down 1.9%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

47. Dec. core PPI up 0.2% vs. 0.2% gain expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

48. U.S. Dec. PPI down 0.1% vs. 0.2% gain expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 15, 2008 - 49 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices above $94 a barrel in Asia

SINGAPORE - Oil prices were nearly flat Tuesday after climbing more than $1 a barrel in the previous session as forecasts for colder weather in the United States raised expectations of increased fuel demand.

The U.S. National Weather Service is calling for below-normal temperatures across most of the country over the next two weeks. The Midwest is a major consumer of natural gas, while the northeastern United States is the world's largest market for heating oil.

Traders were also looking ahead to a weekly U.S. government petroleum inventory report to be released Wednesday that was expected to show crude oil stocks rose last week for the first time in nine weeks.

The U.S. Energy Department's report is expected to say crude inventories rose 700,000 barrels in the week ended Jan. 11, according to the average of analyst forecasts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
......
Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell 6 cents to $94.14 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midmorning in Singapore.

The contract on Monday rose $1.51 to settle at $94.20 a barrel. A declining dollar and rising political tensions in the Middle East contributed to the advance, apparently outweighing worries that a weakening U.S. economy could curb oil demand.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. The Spillover Effect of $100 Oil

U.S. consumers are hurting. Amid the housing crisis, a weakening job market, and spiraling inflation, consumers are facing the toughest economic climate in more than 15 years. With crude oil prices hitting the once-unthinkable $100 milestone on Jan. 2 and now hovering in the mid-$90s, overall conditions aren't likely to be helped by a modest easing in crude prices.

That's because high oil prices have an inflationary effect throughout the economy. "When the price of oil goes up, it impacts virtually every commodity, good, and service we purchase," says Terry Clower, associate director for the University of North Texas' Center for Economic Development & Research. "Everything from milk to gasoline to a bucket of fried chicken will cost more. It's a potentially scary scenario."

Energy costs don't exert the same bite on Americans' budgets as they did in the late 1970s and '80s. But with oil prices nearly doubling in the past year, the cost of powering an economy that relies on a total of 22 million barrels per day has risen sharply. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.8% in November, its largest advance since September, 2005. Higher energy prices accounted for nearly 70% of that increase. Economists say that because Americans spend a lower proportion of their incomes on energy than 25 years ago, rising oil itself can't cause a recession. But with weakness in the job market, capital spending moderating, and the housing market in a full-blown crisis, the economy has reached a danger zone.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2008/db2008018_523125.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_investing

[ozymandius]

5. Consumer spending slowdown deepens

NEW YORK - More evidence of a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending surfaced Monday, as Sears Holdings Corp. warned that a drop in sales would result in a profit shortfall and the world's largest retail trade group issued a downbeat sales forecast for 2008.

Shares dropped among retailers from jewelry chain Zales Inc. to Saks Inc., which operates luxury retailer Saks Fifth Avenue, as the spending malaise appeared to deepen and spread beyond lower and middle-income shoppers to more affluent consumers. The decline in retailers' stocks continued a yearlong downward trend.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the nation's economic activity, had been showing resilience even as gas prices rose and the housing market fell. But recent data point to a sharper pullback, a trend that may tip the economy into recession.

American Express Co., whose customers are generally affluent, said Thursday it expects slower spending and more missed payments on credit card bills to hurt its profit throughout 2008. Upscale jewelry retailer Tiffany Co. cut its 2007 profit outlook on Friday as it reported a 2 percent decline in same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year, during the holiday period.

....

"When all is said and done, we have probably entered into a recession. The weakness in the holiday season was the tipping point," said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research, who forecasts a decline in consumer spending that takes inflation into account in coming months. It would be the first since 1991, when the savings and loans crisis precipitated a recession.

.....

"I don't care whether the economy is in a recession, the consumer is in a recession," said Patricia Edwards, a retail analyst with Wentworth, Hauser and Violich. "When you are not buying name-brand cough syrup, something is going on."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080114/ap_on_bi_ge/outlook_retail_sales

[ozymandius]

9. U.S. Retail Sales Probably Stalled in December as Growth Slowed

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers stalled in December, capping the weakest holiday shopping season in five years, economists said before a report today.

Purchases were unchanged following a 1.2 percent gain in November, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report may show wholesale prices rose at a slower pace in December after surging the prior month.

A sustained slump in consumer spending brought on by falling property values and rising unemployment would spell the end of the six-year expansion, economists say. The report would underscore Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's concern that risks to growth were intensifying.

.....

The forecast for retail sales was based on the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from a decline of 0.8 percent to a gain of 0.5 percent. The Commerce Department's report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aLPqj4yCBrOY&refer=economy

[TalkingDog]

17. Wow, Patricia can still afford to buy cough syrup? (insert sarcasm smilie) n/t

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[AnneD]

66. Cough syrup recipe....

Coffee cup of hot water
1/4th lemon
2+ teaspoons honey
1-2 teaspoons alcohol (whiskey seems best, 1 teaspoon for wee ones, 2 for older kids, use discretion for adults:rofl:)

Stir honey and alcohol into hot water. Squeeze in lemon juice (I toss in the entire lemon wedge when I take it).

I use a non alcoholic one if I am at work. Otherwise I drink one every 4-6 hours.

[Ghost Dog]

100. That's a good Irish "hot toddy". Very effective medicine.

Add a few cloves to the recipe, stuck into the wedge of lemon.

[AnneD]

106. GD...

good to see you back. Cloves are a great idea. They are a topical anesthetic. I have used clove oil to deaden tooth pain before. No reason why it wouldn't work on the throat.

[ozymandius]

6. Congress panel wants to grill subprime CEOs on pay

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Current and former CEOs of three major U.S. financial institutions deeply involved in the widening subprime mortgage crisis were asked on Monday by a Congressional committee to testify at a hearing next month on their massive pay and severance packages.

A House of Representatives panel invited Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N) CEO Angelo Mozilo, former Citigroup Inc (C.N) CEO Charles Prince and former Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N) CEO Stanley O'Neal to appear and answer questions on February 7.

House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Henry Waxman, a 17-term California Democrat, said he was seeking testimony from the executives as part of an "ongoing investigation into executive pay."

In a letter on the hearing sent to Mozilo, Waxman wrote: "According to recent press reports, if Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) completes its proposed purchase of Countrywide Financial, you stand to collect tens of millions of dollars in severance payments and other compensation."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080115/bs_nm/usa_subprime_congress_dc

Anybody want to donate to the charcoal fund?

[MilesColtrane]

31. I hope they make sure and marinate them a good long time first.

Multi-millionaires tend to be dry.

[Hugin]

37. In my Betty Crocker cookbook...

It says soaking them in brine and cooking them in a plastic bag may help them retain moisture.

I always wanted to try this recipe, but, with the high price of CEOs I could never afford one. ;)

[Roland99]

53. Maybe we could all pitch in and form a sort of co-op. Maybe pick up a bargain CEO?

[donkeyotay]

61. That must be Betty the Bitch's Crook Cookbook.

Nothing would clean up the kitchen faster than some jail time.

[kineneb]

56. BBQ CEO... too greasy for direct grilling, must parboil first. n/t

[tranche]

65. Start w/ Paulson! n/t

[AnneD]

68. I am assuming that...

from the title-congress is going to grill them over their pay. Since the dollar is getting pretty useless these days-the salaries should make a nice bonfire-no charcoal needed, Ozy. Or am I reading the title wrong:sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

7. Sprint to lay off several thousand workers: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sprint Nextel Corp (S.N), the No. 3 U.S. mobile service, plans to lay off several thousand of its 60,000 employees, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

....

Sprint has lost ground to rivals such as AT&T Inc (T.N) and Verizon Wireless, owned by Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.N) and Vodafone (VOD.L), as it has struggled with network and customer service problems.

Sprint Chief Executive Daniel Hesse, who took over the job in December, is also considering consolidating Sprint's headquarters in Kansas, the Journal said. Sprint currently runs the business out of Kansas and Reston, Virginia.

In January 2007, Sprint announced plans to reduce its full-time head count by about 5,000 people, leaving it with just under 60,000 workers after the layoffs were completed, according to Fisher.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080114/bs_nm/sprint_layoffs_dc

[ozymandius]

8. Citigroup to Cut Jobs, Reduce Dividend, WSJ Reports (Update1)

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. plans to cut more than 20,000 jobs, or about 6 percent of the workforce, and reduce its dividend after as much as $20 billion of costs to write down the value of subprime-related securities, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

Citigroup will receive at least $10 billion in cash from outside investors, including Government Investment Corp. of Singapore, the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, to shore up capital, the Journal said. Citigroup gained 4 cents to $29.10 in German trading today.

......

Citigroup, led by Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, probably will report a net fourth-quarter loss of almost $4.3 billion, or 97 cents a share, later today along with the job reductions, dividend cut and capital injection from outside investors, analysts estimate. About 6,500 of the job reductions will be at the investment banking unit, the Journal said. Citigroup spokeswoman Christina Pretto in New York didn't return a call seeking comment after business hours.

The Journal also reported that China vetoed a planned $2 billion investment in Citigroup by the state-owned China Development Bank. The article cited people familiar with the situation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avzmbBb919c8&refer=home

[UpInArms]

15. Citigroup posts $9.83 billion loss

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080115/bs_nm/citigroup_results_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N) on Tuesday said it is raising at least $14.5 billion and cutting its quarterly dividend 41 percent to help shore up a capital base depleted by losses on subprime mortgages and consumer credit.

The bank also posted its first quarterly loss since its creation in 1998, hurt by $18.1 billion of write-downs for exposure to subprime debt. It also said U.S. credit losses increased $4.1 billion, largely because more consumers are falling behind on payments.

The net loss for the largest U.S. bank totaled $9.83 billion, or $1.99 per share, roughly twice as large as analysts expected.

Citigroup said it is raising $12.5 billion from a private sale of convertible preferred securities.

It said this includes $6.88 billion from a fund affiliated with Singapore's government. The bank also said it includes investments from the Kuwait Investment Authority, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the asset management firm Capital Research & Management, the state of New Jersey, and former Citigroup Chief Executive Sanford "Sandy" Weill.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Citi writes off $18.1 billion

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080115/bs_nm/economy_credit_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - Citigroup wrote off a colossal $18.1 billion on Tuesday and secured new capital as Merrill Lynch, also seen heading for big losses due to the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown, announced a $6.6 billion shot in the arm.

Citi, the largest U.S. bank by assets, announced an overall fourth quarter loss of $9.83 billion -- its first quarterly loss since its creation in 1998 -- on the back of losses tied to subprime home loans and other risky debt.

It said it was raising $14.5 billion from offerings of convertible preferred securities and cut its dividend. Saudi Arabia's Prince Alwaleed and the government of Singapore were among the recipients.

"Believe it or not, the write-downs are better than what was being discussed. Yesterday, I saw an analyst estimate of $27 billion," said William Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Smith Asset Management in New York. "It wasn't the worst case scenario."

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Citigroup to raise $14.5 billion after historic loss

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSWNAS645820080115?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc on Tuesday said it is raising at least $14.5 billion and cutting its quarterly dividend 41 percent to help shore up a capital base depleted by losses on subprime mortgages and consumer credit.

The largest U.S. bank also posted its first quarterly loss since Citigroup's creation in 1998, hurt by $18.1 billion of write-downs and related expenses for exposure to subprime debt, plus a $4.1 billion increase in U.S. credit costs.

The net loss was $9.83 billion, or $1.99 per share, roughly twice as large as analysts expected. Citigroup cut its quarterly dividend to 32 cents per share from 54 cents, a move that could save it more than $4 billion a year.

"You expected the figures to be shocking," said Simon Maughan, an analyst at MF Global in London. "You cannot say it's definitively over but you have got to say this is probably the big one."

Among the investors injecting new capital are Singapore's government, former Citigroup Chief Executive Sanford "Sandy" Weill and Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, Citigroup's largest individual investor.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Citigroup Alters Course, Bails Out Affiliated Funds (7 SIVs)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119759010104328237.html

Citigroup Inc., bruised by mounting losses, is bailing out seven affiliated investment entities, bringing $49 billion in assets onto its balance sheet and further denting its depleted capital base.

The big New York bank said it would provide emergency support to the entities -- known as structured-investment vehicles -- if it can't find buyers for their short- and medium-term debt. SIVs, which often hold mortgage-backed securities, have come under intense scrutiny in the past several months as nervous investors have balked at buying the short-term debt known as commercial paper that provides critical funding to the vehicles.

...the rest is for subscribers only...

[UpInArms]

76. Citi had $21 bln unfunded commitments at end Q4

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEN338520080115

NEW YORK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) had about $21 billion of unfunded leveraged loan commitments at the end of the fourth quarter, down from roughly $38 billion at the end of the third quarter, the company's chief financial officer said on Tuesday.

Speaking on a conference call, Citi CFO Gary Crittenden also said the bank has not yet determined the size of a planned offering of preferred securities. The size will depend in part on demand in the market.

...more...

[ozymandius]

10. Merrill Lynch to Raise $1.2 Billion From Mizuho, People Say

Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the U.S. brokerage battered by subprime mortgage losses, may raise about $1.2 billion by selling preferred shares to Mizuho Financial Group Inc., people with knowledge of the matter said.

Mizuho is in talks about buying a portion of the preferred shares Merrill plans to sell, the two people said, declining to be identified as the discussions are private. The shares will be convertible into common stock in Merrill, they said.

Merrill is seeking capital after $8.4 billion of writedowns on U.S. mortgage investments led to the biggest loss in its 93- year history in the third quarter. Tokyo-based Mizuho would become the first Japanese company in more than two decades to make a major investment in a Wall Street firm.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJjFLXtZ4ehU&refer=home

[ozymandius]

11. Good morning everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

It's time for me to leave for the day. I'll check back in this afternoon, time permitting.

:hi:

[AnneD]

62. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. I was thinking about doing a list of predictions for the new year. If you like chiming in -DO. Most are no brainers due to the lack of brains in most economic circles these days.

The Bear speaks....

1)Despite Bush's background in cheer leading,rah-rah will not lead us out of a recession, and make no mistake we are spiraling into a full fledged recession. At this point, interest rate cuts are like swatting flies off a dieing horse-too little too late. Yeah, it might help, but it would be a better use of effort to save the horse-at this point flies don't matter. We need to take a hard look at our business taxes. Through incentives and taxes, we can strengthen our manufacturing base, among other things.:rant: I was throughly po'd at ABC's coverage of Michigan's Primary as I am of the Dem's de-certifying the delegates. That will come back to bite us DEM's in the ass come election time. ABC is saying that Michigan has a ONE STATE RECESSION.:argh: Last time I looked at the numbers-the rest of us weren't looking so healthy either. One state recession-what a diaper load. And as far as the Dem's and primaries go-a time table and more efficient system needs to be enacted-something along the line of regional primaries, as it will be more efficient.


2)Gold and silver will go up again this year as folks try to hang on to their assets. Commodities will also go up at a breakneck speed. I think this will be one of our next bubbles. Look for truth in advertising to kick in as they change the name of the Baby Ruth candy bar to Baby Runt. The things NOT included in inflation will really start climbing (gas and food). If you can't afford gold-start stocking your pantry to save $$$. A garden or patio garden will help. I predict that little old ladies will again eat cat food to get by. I also predict the start of food scarcity as global warming increases and weather patterns permanently change. Countries will hock their wealth for food before it is over. 3)The sub prime fallout will continue. And forget this recovery by the end of next year. I did some checking and when Houston went through it's RE bust-it took 15 years for houses to recover their value. and this was just before the end of the Clinton presidency. Now if it took 15 years to right its self under Clinton-you know this will be a long time recovering unless radical things are done.


4)World wide-there will be more unrest in China. Not everyone is benefiting from this 'Economic Miracle'. They cannot continue on their current trajectory. A world wide slow down will exacerbate their underling weaknesses. Russia will continue to see their star rise. It will be, however, at the cost of civil liberties. Putin will prove to be just as calculating and ruthless as Stalin, he just won't be as obvious. Look for more poisonings and unsolved murders and fantastic suicides. The Middle East will continue to be a flash point. Sunni and Shi'ite differences coming increasingly to a head. The increased prices in oil will continue to benefit the Saudi Kingdom but they will find it increasingly harder to hold their power over their people. Nigeria will have flare ups. They won't have civil war yet (again), but there is oil wealth and that brings out the worst politicians. And all the workers in the delta want is a decent wage. There will also continue to be civil unrest in Mexico. Almost half of the country (if you believe election results) did not vote for the guy. Gun control or no....lots of folks are angry. The drug leader are regrouping and consolidating their power. Look for it to continue to spill over into the southern portions of the us. If NAFTA rules regarding truck go through....look for weapons to slip into Mexico at a higher rate and illegal drugs to shipments to come to the US with greater frequency. It will start getting uglier at the border.

Bright Spots....

1)Renewable Energy will see fantastic growth-ethanol is not the wave of the future, though it will hamstring us for a while.

2)Micro loans and private loans as opposed to tradition banks are the next new wave. The banking sector is in deep doo. Too much consolidation is their downfall. You CAN be to big to fail and we are going to see this soon enough.


It is going to be a rough year anyway you slice it. Much of this is old hat to regular readers so -buckle your seat belts , we're in for a bumpy ride. I wish I could be more cheery, and I would be happy to eat ground glass, but this will not be a good year.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Warpy]

110. I find your predictions right on, but the fact that we're seeing reports

of unrest coming out of China means that they're one natural disaster away from a massive social upheaval. That's just the way things happen there, so the Central Committee better pray there are no earthquakes or massive floods this year.

All that docile slave labor over there isn't as docile as fat cat CEOs have been led to believe. Once the fit hits the shan, we'll see shortages here of everything we used to make but was given to China to make by greedy CEOs.

Micro loans are the thing of the future. Seed money given to a thousand people at the bottom does so much more than the same amount of money given to one businessman at the top. I have an awful nightmare of all my micro loans being paid back and my having to live on the proceeds after Wall Street manages to fuck this country completely.

The next big technology will be post petroleum energy technology. Once we get rid of the GOP, the push should be such that the development of that technology starts HERE.

[AnneD]

114. I am interest in any other predictions....

you have Warpy. I think you have a real feel for it from what I have observed in your other posts.

I haven't decided how India will play out but their current PM is not to be underestimated. He is very shrewed-in a good way. India has good growth and a level of democracy that can take them further than they are now but the corruption is their Achilles heel. Some individual states are doing well, Hyderabad in Andra Pradesh is well run. Hubby couldn't believe the improvements when he went there this summer. There is sectarian unrest but violence is directed at each other-not generally at tourists or businesses(I had a scare when there was a bomb going off at a park this summer and Hubby was several days calling me). Pakistan and our government 'close' relationship makes me nervous. I think we will regret this eventually like we regret Iraq. Very much civil unrest layered over a fundamental religious base wrapped in a military dictatorship.

[DemReadingDU]

12. Whitney: Bush's Voodoo Stimulus Package

1/14/08 Bush's Voodoo Stimulus Package: $250 "freebie" for every taxpayer Mike Whitney

In the next couple of weeks, George Bush will prove that the last 30 years of supply side, free market economics was nothing more than a overripe pile of horse manure. In fact, right now, the B-52s are being loaded with pallets-full of freshly-minted hundred dollar bills which will be air-dropped “from sea to shining sea” as soon as King George gives the nod.

The Bush “Stimulus Package” is the biggest and most obscene hyper-inflationary swindle ever perpetrated on the American people. It's a $100 billion, taxpayer-funded, bailout that is being slapped together at breakneck-speed to forestall a collapse in consumer spending, an exodus of foreign capital, and a painful slide into recession. And, guess what? Both political parties are on board. It is an act of utter desperation designed to address the catastrophe that was created by the Federal Reserve; the housing meltdown. Greenspan's subprime boondoggle is now in full-crisis mode and threatening to deliver a knockout punch to the global economy. That's why the the lights are blinking red at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. And, that's why the whole 435 member army of lacquer-haired political jacklegs who run the Congress are racing around in circles trying to find solutions.

They ought to forget about it; go home to their friends and families, stockpile canned food and ammunition, and prepare for the Force 5 fiscal hurricane that's looming just off-shore.

more...
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article19071.htm

[Hugin]

32. "...the last 30 years of supply side, free market economics was nothing more than a overripe pile.."

"the last 30 years of supply side, free market economics was nothing more than a overripe pile of horse manure"

Should be the mantra of economists.

[DemReadingDU]

34. Mike Whitney has a way with words

:P

[Hugin]

36. Yes, thanks for pointing it out...

I enjoyed reading it... Now, is anybody paying attention?

[kineneb]

57. me! been reading Whitney since beginning of '07

and saving some of his essays as text files. So far, everything he has predicted has come to pass. Unfortunately.

...can't afford to invest in gold... have lead, buying canned goods.

[cosmicdot]

63. in other stimulus news - checks cut to tobacco farmers

an FYI - aside:

$9.6 billion over 10 years

(wonder how many are getting checks?)
```````````````````````````````````

News Release found at http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usdahome

Release No. 0009.08

TOBACCO FARMERS RECEIVE TRANSITION PROGRAM PAYMENTS
```````````````````````````````````````````````````

WASHINGTON, Jan. 14, 2008 -USDA will issue this year's installment in
the Tobacco Transition Payment Program with more than $950 million in
payments to former quota holders and producers today. The transition
payments are funded by assessments on tobacco product importers and
manufacturers.

Approximately $3.8 billion in payments will have been paid to former
tobacco quota holders and producers when this fourth round of payments
ends. These funds help tobacco farmers' transition to the free market,
due to the termination of the federal tobacco marketing program.

The Tobacco Transition Payment Program marked the end of the federal
tobacco marketing quota and price support loan programs, which had
been in place since the Great Depression. The Fair and Equitable
Tobacco Reform Act, signed into law by President Bush in October 2004,
established the payment schedule.

Payments began in 2005 and will end in 2014, to provide 10 equal
annual payments to former quota holders and producers. The payments
made every year on or about Jan. 15, total approximately $950 million
per year.

Also, former quota holders and producers may enter into
successor-in-interest contracts to receive lump-sum payments from
private entities by selling their interest in the remaining six
Tobacco Transition Payment Program payments. In 2007, third parties
bought more than 22,000 transition contracts worth approximately $300
million. This is in addition to the successor contracts of previous
years.

http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/_s.7_0_A/7_0_1OB?contentidonly=true&contentid=2008/01/0009.xml


"The Fair and Equitable Tobacco Reform Act of 2004 (Reform Act) was
passed as part of the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004"

"The Reform Act terminates the tobacco price support program. In order
to ease the transition, an estimated $9.6 billion will be paid to
tobacco quota owners and growers in annual installments spread evenly
over ten years. The buyout is funded entirely by assessments on
tobacco product manufacturers and importers.

"According to estimates from the USDA's Farm Service Agency, tobacco
quota owners and growers in the Atlanta region of the FDIC will be
receiving $6 billion over the next ten years with North Carolina
receiving a total of $3.9 billion."

http://www.nccob.org/NCCOB/FinancialInstitutions/TobaccoBuyout.htm


DeWine Amdt. No. 3563; To protect the public health by providing the
Food and Drug Administration with certain authority to regulate
tobacco products, to eliminate the Federal quota and price support
programs for tobacco, and to provide assistance to quota holders,
tobacco producers, and tobacco-dependent communities


Senate - amendment to the "American Jobs Creation Act"
(btw, how did that work out????)

Statement of Purpose: To protect the public health by providing the
Food and Drug Administration with certain authority to regulate
tobacco products, to eliminate the Federal quota and price support
programs for tobacco, and to provide assistance to quota holders,
tobacco producers, and tobacco-dependent communities.

Vote Counts:

YEAs 78
NAYs 15
Present 1
Not Voting 6

Nays

Allard (R-CO)
Burns (R-MT)
Enzi (R-WY)
Fitzgerald (R-IL)
Gregg (R-NH)
Jeffords (I-VT)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Lott (R-MS)
Nickles (R-OK)
Roberts (R-KS)
Santorum (R-PA)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Sununu (R-NH)
Thomas (R-WY)

Present - 1

Carper (D-DE)

Not Voting - 6

Baucus (D-MT)
Domenici (R-NM)
Edwards (D-NC) <---
Inhofe (R-OK)
Kerry (D-MA)
Nelson (D-FL)

everyone else voted ... hip-hip-hoo-r 'Yea'!

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=108&session=2&vote=00157

[Roland99]

13. Marketwatch going for a DUzy award: Stock futures feeling pretty Citi

Stock futures feeling pretty Citi

Pre-market's direction is decidedly lower, as investors digest the latest capitalization moves by Citigroup and Merrill Lynch.




BTW, I'm seeing what must be a typo in the futures at money.cnn.com:

S&P 500 -10.90 1409.40
NASDAQ -14.50 1940.50
Dow Jones +137.00 12725.00

[TalkingDog]

18. Or a financial Freudian slip.

The Germans would slap together a nice clunky word for it.

Something like: Finanzfreudscher Beleg



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[radfringe]

19. yep does the bear citi in the woods? or is it all bull citi?

[AnneD]

67. Some of these swindlers are ....

Citi on top of the world

[UpInArms]

22. Citi CEO: Balance sheet needs immediate attention

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEN338120080115

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc CEO Vikram Pandit on Tuesday said the bank's balance sheet needs immediate attention as he works to sell assets that are not key to its operations.

Pandit, who made his remarks during a conference call with analysts and investors, also said he has set aside money for significant job cuts in some bank divisions.

:wtf: Don't they pay attention to their "balance sheets" before they become "unbalanced"?

[Hugin]

27. Hmm... It's one of those inscrutable ponderings.

I'm guessing they don't worry about balance because they don't get slapped with outrageous fees and
usury level interest rate increases if they're out of balance.

Must be nice.

How do the unbalanced tell if something is in balance?

[Hugin]

25. Gage seems to be stuck...

*tapping screen* :/

[AnneD]

71. You forgot...

to spit on it first.

[kineneb]

58. oh, so Citi; oh so Citi, so flitty and fey... n/t

[UpInArms]

14. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.477 Change -0.142 (-0.19%)

Will the US Dollar Fall to a New Record Low?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Will_the_US_Dollar_Fall_1200350114957.html

Tomorrow’s US retail sales report will the catalyst that determines whether where the dollar falls to a new record low. Over the past few weeks, the market has gone from pricing in just one 25bp rate cut to as much as 75bp of easing at the end of this month. The Federal Reserve has grown increasingly bearish, all on the fear that the trouble in the US housing and labor markets have spilled onto consumer spending. Chain-store sales last month were weak and Target’s earnings disappointed Wall Street, but at the same time December retail sales which includes spending during the holidays should have been fairly decent last year. Also, the forecast for 0.1 percent growth is very low, meaning that it will not take much to beat the market’s pessimistic projections. If the number is stronger than forecasted, there could be a fairly material bounce in the US dollar because sentiment is so skewed to the downside. If consumer spending actually falls in the month of December, then not only is a 50bp rate cut from the Federal Reserve guaranteed, but so would a rally up to 1.50 in the EUR/USD. In addition to retail sales, we are also expecting producer prices. We do not think that inflation will rise significantly because Bernanke downplayed the threat of inflation in his speech on Thursday and import prices were flat last month. The Federal Reserve is on track to continue lowering interest rates; the question is by how much. Therefore even if we do not see the EUR/USD hit 1.50 tomorrow, it should be just a matter of time before the dollar falls to a new record low. As more fourth quarter earnings are released, we expect the weak dollar to help boost profits for more US companies. This morning IBM announced that its revenue grew 10 percent from a year ago with 6 points of that growth coming from the weaker dollar.

...more...

Will the Dollar Survive US Retail Sales Results?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Will_the_Dollar_Survive_US_1200395549401.html

The pound staged a strong bounce off the lows in early London trade today as UK CPI held above BoE’s 2% target rate for the third month in a row, putting any notion of imminent monetary easing on hold. UK CPI printed at 2.1% versus 2.0% forecast with RPI data remaining at a lofty 4.0% level. The core readings were a bit more muted coming in at 1.4% vs. 1.5% expected but the overall news suggested that price pressures remain in the system and will make BoE decision making process more complicated as Mr. King and company weigh the problems of inflation against the slowdown in economic activity.

In any case, cable which was woefully oversold managed to stage a mild rally recapturing the 1.9600 level as many of the late shorts covered their positions in the aftermath of the release. Yet, despite the undercurrent of inflationary forces the BoE may have to lower rates next month if monetary authorities see further deterioration in consumer demand. To that end Friday’s UK Retail Sales data could be crucial to determining the near term direction of both rates and sterling itself.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. dollar's new theme - How low will it go?

Last trade 75.347 Change -0.272 (-0.36%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 75.642

Previous Close 76.483 High 75.657

Low 75.271 2008-01-15 08:50:51, 30 min delay

[TalkingDog]

26. I thought the cartoon was about the candidates, not the opening #'s

Dow -123.08 although the main page says -53.82 while the intraday gives the -123.08 I listed.

Nasdaq 2,449.04 -29.26
S&P 1,411.88 -4.37


Anybody know why it does that or is this a: Pay no attention to the #'s behind the curtain, type of thing?


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Hugin]

28. The news services have a delay on their updates...

and their delays aren't in sync.

If you want to see the latest numbers on the OP click the 'refresh' on your browser. <-- This is the answer to a really
FAQ in the SMW.

[TalkingDog]

30. You get an Awesome! for today! Thanks! n/t

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Hugin]

35. You're welcome...

I still haven't figured out why the NASDAQ futures have been around the 1900's and while the market is open its
curently in around the 2300's. Maybe, there's a rule against futures on certain parts of the index. :shrug:

[antigop]

29. State Street : Asset backed commercial paper conduits

There is an SEC filing dated today....looks like a presentation...

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/93751/000115752308000303/a5585176ex99_2.htm

[AnneD]

69. Are these paper conduits....

Scott, Northern, or Charmin. And more importantly, does this get me a DUzy.

[antigop]

33. State Street's earnings fall 28%

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/15/news/companies/bc.apfn.earns.statestree.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008011508

Trust bank State Street Corp. said Tuesday that fourth-quarter earnings fell 28 percent after the company took a major charge to cover fallout from its investments in the subprime sector.

Net income slid to $223 million, or 57 cents per share, from $309 million, or 91 cents, in the year-ago period.

The result includes a charge of $279 million, or 71 cents, to cover expected legal and other costs from investments that deteriorated last year. State Street warned investors of the charge earlier in January.

[Roland99]

38. BTW, great toon today.

[Roland99]

39. 10:21am - Markets settling about -1.5% on the day.

Dow 12,603.70 -174.45
Nasdaq 2,437.72 -40.58
S&P 500 1,392.19 -24.06
Oil $91.80 $-2.40
10 YR 3.72% -0.07
Gold $909.00 $5.60

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Monday pump. Tuesday dump.

[Hugin]

41. Are you calling it?

Great! I'm off to lunch.

Today is lime jello day in the cafeteria. WITH.THE.LITTLE.MARSHMALLOWS! :woohoo:

[Roland99]

42. Bring some for the rest of the class! BTW...

I'll miss the closing today...leaving a bit early.

[Hugin]

44. Nothing serious, I hope.

It turns out Market Schadenfrende is a team sport.

[Roland99]

55. Nah...

taking my daughter for her 1st orthodontic appt. The braces go on next week.


woo hoo.

[AnneD]

72. Word of advice from the School Nurse and.....

ex orthodontic patient. Take Motrin before your appointments and eat lunch right after. The Motrin kicks in just as the braces start to hurt. Eat a good meal after the adjustment because it will be a while before you can chew food without pain. It was a great bonding time for Mom and I every 4-6 weeks. I would play hooky from school for a while, eat a decent lunch and Mom and I would chat. I have many pleasant memories of our lunches.

[Roland99]

74. Yeah, I was kinda thinking along those lines but didn't know that about eating.

Good tips!


Today is just the modeling; braces go on next Tue. wheeee

[AnneD]

88. I was always on soup for

at least 2 days after having my braces tightened. Take her out to a really good lunch. She'll remember it the time fondly too.:thumbsup:

[AnneD]

70. Add....

a few chunks of pineapple to that green jello and marshmallow and you have food for the gods-I'm jealous Prag.:9

[UpInArms]

43. 10:46 EST circling the drain - down 200+

Dow 12,563.06 215.09 (1.68%)
Nasdaq 2,427.33 50.97 (2.06%)
S&P 500 1,387.35 28.90 (2.04%)
10-Yr Bond 3.723% 0.07

NYSE Volume 1,119,675,000
Nasdaq Volume 563,043,500

10:30 am : The major indices are facing selling pressure as the financial sector (-3.1%) extends its losses. Financials are seeing the most selling pressure, although the declines are broad-based. Nine of the ten sectors are posting a loss in excess of 1%.

Citigroup's (C 27.36, -1.70) credit rating was cut to AA- at Standard & Poor's in the wake of Cit's fourth quarter loss, according to Bloomberg.

Oil is also under selling pressure, shedding 2.5% to $91.90.DJ30 -185.51 NASDAQ -44.30 SP500 -25.06 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2089/564/383 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2297/540/248 mln

10:00 am : The stock market continues to trade with significant losses with financials (-2.0%) leading the way lower.

All 19 of the sector's industry groups are in the red, led by a 2.6% drop in diversified financial services. Citigroup (C 28.23, -0.83) is down 2.9%. Merrill Lynch (MER 54.30, -1.67) also made headlines this morning after announcing a $6.6 billion cash infusion from several investors. The mandatory convertible preferred stock yields 9%, with a conversion premium of 17% that matures in 33 months.

Only the utilities sector (+0.5%) is posting a gain. Utilities are considered a defensive oriented sector.

DJ30 -112.43 NASDAQ -16.79 SP500 -29.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 552/1875/166 mln

[BluePatriot]

45. Dang.

I'm probably going to resume lurking in a minute but the stock market has really gone stupid lately, huh? I don't invest but I'm actually worried about the solvency of our banks from the reading I've done. So much of their money is, well, made-up.

[JNelson6563]

46. Yes, the news and info makes one wince

I hope our new Chinese overlords aren't too harsh with us....

Julie

[kineneb]

59. Shall we learn Mandrin or Cantonese?

Inquiring minds wish to know.

I have a jump on Farsi, half my family speaks it, and I have German down really well (deg. minor, I can read Nietzsche).

[AnneD]

81. The official dialect is

Mandarin.

[UpInArms]

113. US banks get $21bn foreign bail-out (Asia and the Middle East)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080115/bs_ft/fto011520081501580231

Citigroup (NYSE:C) and Merrill Lynchturned to foreign investors for an unprecedented bail-out on Tuesday, saying they will raise a total of $21.1bn in fresh capital, mainly from outside the US, to shore up balance sheets devastated by the subprime mortgage crisis.

<snip>

Citi is raising $14.5bn and Merrill $6.6bn, largely from private investors and governments in the Middle East and Asia, representing the biggest-ever single transfer of capital to US banks from abroad. The move could raise pressure from US politicians concerned about foreign influence on the US banking system.

"Not since before World War I have companies in the US gone looking for foreign capital as much as they are right now," said Charles Geisst, a Wall Street historian. "And it poses a number of significant problems."

<snip>

Citi, which late last year raised $7.5bn from Abu Dhabi, said it would raise another $12.5bn through the sale of convertible preferred securities. It will cut its dividend from 54 cents to 32 cents a share and its staff by 4,200.

The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation will invest $6.88bn in Citi. Other investors include the Kuwait Investment Authority; Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, one of Citi's biggest shareholders; Sandy Weill, former chief executive; and the New Jersey investment division. Citi will also seek to sell $2bn of securities to public investors.

...more...

[Robbien]

47. Greenspan joins N.Y. hedge fund. Anyone surprised?

NEW YORK - Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is to become an adviser to Paulson & Co., the $28 billion New York-based hedge fund company that achieved spectacular investment returns at the height of last year's credit crunch.

Greenspan will join the advisory board of the credit specialist investment house. Paulson will be the only hedge fund that Greenspan will work with under the terms of the agreement.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22666136/

[Robbien]

48. Aw crap. The Supremes just ruled against Investors in favor of Businesses

The Supreme Court ruled today that investors cannot sue third party businesses, such as law firms, accountants, banks, and other suppliers, for their role in public companies' deceptive practices to inflate stock prices.

Investor advocates and corporate constituencies have been eagerly awaiting the Court's decision on Stoneridge Investment Partners v. Scientific-Atlanta, because its implications are far-reaching.

. . .

Intense lobbying activity preceded today's ruling. The Bush administration came down on the side of the business lobby, despite the fact that the Securities and Exchange Commission had urged it to file an amicus brief in favor of investors.

Perhaps anticipating the outrage from investor advocates as a result of this ruling, Justice Kennedy seems to assert that this decision does not make third parties immune from the law. "The enforcement power is not toothless," he writes. "Since September 30, 2002, SEC enforcement actions have collected over $10 billion in disgorgement and penalties, much of it for distribution to injured investors."

Moreover, he writes, investors can still sue accountants and underwriters in certain circumstances.

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/top-5/2008/01/15/Stoneridge-Case-Supreme-Court-Ruling

It is getting bad when even the ownership society cannot rely on this Bush Admin to have their backs.

[Hugin]

49. ~11:45 ET: Is anyone surprised?

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12557.77 -220.38 -1.72%
• NASDAQ 2427.56 -50.74 -2.05%
• S&P 500 1386.85 -29.40 -2.08%

[Roland99]

50. Goin' down like.....

*insert R-rated reference here*

Dow 12,545.82 -232.33
Nasdaq 2,424.56 -53.74
S&P 500 1,385.12 -31.13
Oil $92.10 $-2.10
10 YR 3.72% -0.07
Gold $910.80 $7.40

[MilesColtrane]

51. Is it time to set my hair on fire and run around screaming in the back yard yet?

[Hugin]

52. No.

We'll keep you posted.

Might want to buy a couple of gallons of fuel now, tho. It's bound to go up.

[Roland99]

54. Yeah, a little lunch time bounce but still down over 200.

[AnneD]

82. Let's get the party started early.....

Miles-I'll bring the wieners and marshmallows. We have a CEO in the spit.

[Hugin]

101. Hi AnneD!

:hangover:

:hi:

Nobody liked my idea of frying the CEO tailgate party style...

[AnneD]

105. It has potential...

I like a good fried turkey-depending on what you inject him with. Cajun seasoning is good, but bring enough CEO's to go around. Cajuns have a right healthy appetite:spray:

Say, Prag...where's my jello?

[masmdu]

60. Hold on Tight ! my Technical Analysis (SPX) indicates MUCH lower over next few weeks.

Although we are oversold on the near term indicators, the cross of certain EMAs on the monthly SPX chart makes me think a "Quick Bear" will be seen over the next few weeks (that is to say over the next few weeks we may see as much damage to price as we would during a "regular bear" of say, a couple of years. I am positioned for such via futures with stops. Hopefully, after such a move the EMAs will cross back up. DO NOT USE MY ANALYSIS FOR YOUR ACTIONS. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE! Edited to include targets per PM request (SPX to 1050-1250 ...with a bounce here shortly from 1350 to 1450 possible)

[Xithras]

64. I lost $8000 on a freaking cleared stop this morning.

Fuck, fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck! :banghead:

WM closed at 14.32 yesterday and I had a UC stop on the stock at 13.25 that I put up about a week ago when it was dropping. The freaking thing opened with a plunge to 13.01 today...and mine sold at 13.02. It's now back at 14.00 and trending upwards.

FUCK! I wish the stock market had an UNDO button.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

84. It's a gambling parlor.

What do you expect?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

73. BB

[Roland99]

75. 3:05pm - 12,500 in danger!

Dow 12,502.33 -275.82
Nasdaq 2,414.53 -63.77
S&P 500 1,382.13 -34.12
Oil $91.90 $-2.30
Gold $902.50 $-0.90
10 YR 3.70% -0.09

[Roland99]

78. And broken

Dow 12,493.31 -284.84
Nasdaq 2,412.74 -65.56
S&P 500 1,381.04 -35.21
Oil $91.90 $-2.30
Gold $902.50 $-0.90
10 YR 3.70% -0.09

[UpInArms]

79. 3:16 EST - 12,496 - under 12,500

Dow 12,496.07 282.08 (2.21%)
Nasdaq 2,415.58 62.72 (2.53%)
S&P 500 1,381.97 34.28 (2.42%)
10-Yr Bond 3.707% 0.086

NYSE Volume 3,538,920,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,865,201,125

3:00 pm : Losses remain steep as buyers remain on the sidelines. Treasuries continue to make gains. The 10-year note is now up 16 ticks, pushing its yield down to 3.7%.

Boeing (BA 79.49, -2.18) will soon announce additional delays in its 787 Dreamliner jet program, according to The Wall Street Journal. The delays could hurt its ability to deliver as many airplanes as promised, which may cause Boeing to pay millions of dollars in penalty payments.

On the earnings calender, Intel (INTC 22.73, -0.35) is scheduled to report after the close today. JP Morgan Chase (JPM 39.16, -2.20) and Wells Fargo (WFC 26.90, -1.32) are set to report before the open on Wednesday.DJ30 -242.16 NASDAQ -56.53 SP500 -31.58 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2216/744/1.68 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2340/797/1.14 bln

[Roland99]

77. BofA to cut 650 investment banking, global markets jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC7CBB2C7%2DD602%2D4ED3%2D913C%2D82707A5C1F5D%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bank of America Corp. said on Tuesday that it will cut 650 jobs from its global investment banking and global markets businesses. The bank also said it will sell its equity prime brokerage business and reduce activities in structured products like collateralized debt obligations. The moves are the result of a strategic review announced in October. The bank reaffirmed its commitment to serving corporate, commercial and sponsor clients with debt and equity capital raising services, strategic advice and a full range of corporate banking capabilities. Bank of America shares fell 2.8% to $38.12 during afternoon trading on Tuesday.

But yet they're going to buyout Countrywide?

[UpInArms]

80. buy-out to be free courtesy of the tax incentives paid by the proles

:grr:

[UpInArms]

83. 3:31 EST buyers appear out of nowhere to bring it back above 12,500

Dow 12,554.60 223.55 (1.75%)
Nasdaq 2,426.44 51.86 (2.09%)
S&P 500 1,387.87 28.38 (2.00%)
10-Yr Bond 3.701% 0.092

NYSE Volume 3,744,032,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,964,560,125

[Ghost Dog]

85. Hmmm. I may finally have got my internet connection sorted

but I haven't had time today even to read all of this thread. Personal problems (I have to get off the alcohol and smoke, and maybe even the internet - I appear to have an addictive personality) may even be leading to a breakup with the woman I've been with 24 years now.

Hell. Why am I saying all this here? I'm lonely.

I just wanted to point out how strong the Swiss Franc (not just the Yen) is recently (and we all know what's apening to the Pound Sterling):

edit: And the Swiss Franc is also very strong against the Euro: it just ticked up to 1.619 to the Euro.

PS. This version of It's All Over Now Baby Blue, by Joan Baez, is indeed truly beautiful. And we can talk about my hero Van the Man somewhere later... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wy9NYN3XjD8&NR=1

[UpInArms]

86. hey GD!

whatever you gotta do - you gotta do.

:grouphug:

[citizen snips]

87. Metals at a Glance

NEW YORK (AP) -- The following are key metals settlement prices Tuesday, compared with late Monday, on the New York Mercantile Exchange:

February gold $902.60, down 80 cents an ounce

March silver $16.30, down 12.5 cents an ounce

March copper $3.2415, down 9.75 cents a pound

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/metals_glance.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

89. Nvidia Shares Fall on Downgrade

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares in graphic chip supplier Nvidia Corp. fell Tuesday after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock on seasonal weakness and limits to potential market-share gains.

Analyst Arnab Chanda downgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Buy" and said in a note to investors he was taking a more cautious stance on Nvidia.

He said demand had slowed after several quarters of market share gains against Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and its unit ATI Technologies Inc.

Chanda said that in light of expected economic weakness in the first half of 2008, he is focusing on companies that have strong product cycles, profit margin improvement and an attractive stock price.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/apfn_nvidia_mover.html

[citizen snips]

90. Treasurys Rally on Weak Holiday Sales

NEW YORK (AP) -- Treasury prices rallied sharply Tuesday after disconcerting news that consumers cut their retail spending in December, the month when stores almost always get a strong boost from holiday shoppers.

The buying spree drove the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a nearly four-year low, as prices and yields move inversely. Falling yields are a classic signal that investors think the economy is unsteady and that the Federal Reserve will cut rates soon.

The Commerce Department Tuesday said retail sales dropped 0.4 percent last month. Although the result was in line with economists' predictions, it rattled markets because it suggests the consumer, one of the stalwarts of a faltering economy, is flagging.

"December's was the worst showing for any December since at least 1991 and retail sales for the year were the worst year since 2002," said Tony Crescenzi, chief fixed-income analyst at Miller Tabak. "The weakness sharply boosts the likelihood that the U.S. economy entered recession in the fourth quarter, and it is almost indisputable now, the idea that the economy contracted in December."

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/bonds.html?.v=4

[citizen snips]

91. Harley-Davidson Falls on Sales Worries

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Harley-Davidson Inc. hit a 52-week low Tuesday on investor concerns about the effects of a recession on the iconic motorcycle maker's sales.

In afternoon trading, Harley-Davidson's shares fell $1.28, or 3.2 percent, to $39.21 after dropping to $39 earlier in the day and passing its previous annual low of $39.63 set on Friday.

Patrick Archambault of Goldman Sachs cut his price target for the company to $42 from $55, citing lower shipment expectations.

"The key driver is a materially weaker sales outlook for motorcycles in the U.S.," Archambault wrote in a note to investors. "This change follows a significant revision by our U.S. economics team which is now officially forecasting a recession this year."

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/harley_davidson_mover.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

92. BP Shares Fall on Profit Worries

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of BP PLC tumbled Tuesday on analyst predictions that earnings from a key project in Azerbaijan will decline by $1.2 billion in 2008.

In afternoon trading, BP's U.S. shares fell $2.36, or 3.5 percent, to $67.77, after hitting $67.38 earlier in the day. Over the past 52 weeks, the oil company's shares have traded between $58.62 and $79.77.

Lucy Haskins of Lehman Brothers cut her rating for BP to "Underweight" from "Equal Weight" and reduced her earnings estimates for 2008 through 2011 by an average of 6 percent.

Haskins said that while the markets have focused on BP's problems in the United States in recent years, its ACG field in Azerbaijan has been a considerable success, contributing an estimated 14 percent of its 2007 net income.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/bp_mover.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

93. Sector Snap: Semiconductors Down

NEW YORK (AP) -- Chip snaps fell sharply Tuesday as at least two Wall Street analysts said they saw a difficult 2008 first half for microchip companies.

In an investor note entitled "Another Chink in the Chip Armor," Banc of America Securities analyst Sumit Dhanda said that the nine Asian chip distributors he monitors all reported a "troubling" decline in revenue in December.

Dhanda also said he believed that a seasonal downturn and a weak economy will hurt the semiconductor sector in the first half of 2008.

He named Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and LSI Corp. as his least favorite stock picks.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/semiconductors_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

94. Sector Snap: Banks Decline

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of banks plummeted Tuesday after Citigroup Inc. disclosed massive losses on mortgage investments and prepared for more borrowers to miss loan payments.

Citigroup reported a loss of nearly $10 billion for the fourth quarter, hampered by an $18.1 billion dent in its mortgage investment portfolio. The New York-based bank also set aside $4.1 billion to cover bad loans.

Last week credit card lenders American Express Co. and Capital One Financial Corp. that more people are failing to pay their bills.

Citigroup's stock slipped $2.05, or 7.1 percent, to $27.01.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/banks_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

95. Sector Snap: Most Web Retail Stocks Down

NEW YORK (AP) -- Most online retail stocks fell Tuesday along with the broader markets, with eBay Inc.'s shares hitting a new 52-week low.

The Dow Jones industrial average declined more than 200 points in afternoon trading, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index shed more than 50 points.

Shares of online auctioneer eBay Inc. fell $1.16, or 4 percent, to $28.07, having reached as low as $27.85 earlier in the session. Previously, the stock had traded between $28.60 and $40.73 in the past 52 weeks.

Nevertheless, JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan reiterated an "Overweight" rating for the stock on Tuesday, saying recent tracking of eBay listings shows 89.6 million listings on the company's sites -- an increase of 9 percent year-over-year and a number that is ahead of his estimate for 5 percent growth in the quarter.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/sector_snap_internet.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

96. Oil Falls Sharply on Economy Worries

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures dropped sharply Tuesday as a dismal retail sales report confirmed a growing view among investors that the economy is slowing and that demand for energy is likely to fall.

Investors who have already been selling heavily on concerns about a weak economy dumped contracts again after the Commerce Department said retail sales fell by 0.4 percent in December. Not only was the drop much worse than the 0.1 percent analysts expected, it also was evidence that not even the holiday shopping season could encourage wary consumers to spend freely.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery fell $2.30 to settle at $91.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

President Bush contributed to the concerns by warning that soaring oil prices could cause an economic slowdown in the United States.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/oil_prices.html?.v=21

[fascisthunter]

97. Closing Numbers: -277.04 / -2.17%

[UpInArms]

98. preliminary closing numbers - hanging on to 12500 by the hair on the PPT's chin

Dow 12,501.11 277.04 (2.17%)
Nasdaq 2,417.59 60.71 (2.45%)
S&P 500 1,380.95 35.30 (2.49%)
10-Yr Bond 3.701% 0.092

NYSE Volume 4,497,306,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,348,134,250

[Hugin]

99. Well, everyone knows that 12,500.00 mark is a psychologically important level...

(Repeat ad-nauseum on all the market shows) :eyes:

[AnneD]

107. So is....

12000, and at this rate we will hit it before the week is up.

Edited to add 10,578.24 is also psychologically important. Anyone want to start a pool and guess when we reach that benchmark. We've got a whole year.:rofl:

[ozymandius]

108. What would we ever do without the PPT?

Might we see Chopper Ben pushing a shopping cart past the landfill?

[UpInArms]

112. here's the spin - errr - blather for the mess

4:25 pm : It didn't take long for Monday's rally to be unwound as a dismal fourth quarter report from Citigroup (C 26.94, -2.12) and a weaker than expected retail sales report for December triggered a host of sell orders that led to material losses for the major indices.

As far as Citigroup is concerned, it reported a large write-down as expected - $18.1 billion to be exact - yet some critics felt that write-down still wasn't large enough to serve as an inflection point that suggested the worst is over for the investment bank.

Altogether Citigroup reported a net loss of $9.83 billion, or $1.99 per share, on a 70% decline in revenues. Analysts had expected the company to record a loss of $1.03 per share.

In addition to posting its operating results, Citigroup said it slashed its dividend by 41% to $0.32 per share and that it raised $12.5 billion in new capital from outside investors that include Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and former CEO Sanford Weill's family foundation.

The market didn't find anything to cheer about in the report, which also contained the unsettling admission that credit costs for its U.S. Consumer business increased by $4.1 billion due to increased delinquencies on 1st and 2nd mortgages, unsecured personal loans, credit cards and auto loans. This revelation triggered concern about the deteriorating state of debtors in the U.S. that weighed heavily on other banks in Tuesday's trading.

Fellow Dow component JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.17, -2.19), which reports before Wednesday's open, was among the hardest hit with investors cognizant that its card services business accounted for 24% of its net revenues last year and 25% of its operating income.

Separately, Merrill Lynch (MER 53.01, -2.96) languished after announcing it raised $6.6 billion in new capital through the issuance of convertible preferred stock that carried a 9.0% coupon.

The financial sector, which dropped 3.7%, led Tuesday's retreat that saw the indices close near their lows for the day. The energy sector, which fell 3.5%, the materials sector, which shed 3.0%, and the technology sector, which lost 2.4%, were the other big laggards as slowdown concerns permeated the market.

Every economic sector, in fact, closed the session with a loss that exceeded 1.0%. In turn, there wasn't a single stock in the Dow that closed higher.

A report from the Dept. of Commerce that total retail sales and retail sales, excluding autos, declined 0.4% in December contributed to the slowdown concerns. Economists had forecast a flat reading for retail sales and a 0.1% decline excluding autos.

The December weakness followed an otherwise robust November when retail sales increased 1.0%, so the December data wasn't as bad as it was made out to be. Nonetheless, a number that was off the mark, combined with a fourth quarter earnings warning from Williams-Sonoma (WSM 20.01, -2.19), exacerbated the negative sentiment that was rooted in large part in Citigroup's woeful report.

In typical fashion, the Treasury market advanced in the face of the stock market's weakness. Gains were registered across the yield curve with the strongest performance at the back end. The benchmark 10-year note jumped 22 ticks and its yield fell to 3.68%.DJ30 -277.04 NASDAQ -60.71 NQ100 -2.8% R2K -2.1% SP400 -2.4% SP500 -35.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2277/724/2.42 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2347/815/1.82 bln

[citizen snips]

102. S&P 500 Leaders & Laggards: ETFC BIG

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of electronic brokerage E-Trade Financial Corp. declined on Tuesday and sent the Standard & Poor's 500 index to a lower finish, as investors sold off shares on fears that the U.S. is headed toward a recession.

The S&P 500 index 35.30 points, or 2.5 percent, to 1,380.95.

E-Trade shares lost 32 cents, or 9.9 percent, to $2.92, after some analysts said competitors are gaining at E-Trade's expense. E-Trade has been hurt by investments in home loans.

Electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. declined 39 cents, or 9.8 percent, to $3.60. Shares earlier set a 52-week low of $3.57.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/s_p_500_laggards.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

103. Diebold, Regulators Reach Agreement

NORTH CANTON, Ohio (AP) -- Diebold Inc., which has not issued revenue and earnings statements since April, said on Tuesday it has reached agreement with federal regulators over how to report revenue.

But Diebold still has not said specifically when it will provide financial results for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2007 plus any revisions for previous years.

On Dec. 21, the company disclosed that the Justice Department was joining the Securities and Exchange Commission in a probe of Diebold accounting practices.

The company said it anticipates its accounting issues will be resolved during the first quarter of 2008.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/diebold_revenue.html?.v=1

[ozymandius]

109. So, maybe they keep silent about revenues.

Just as long as the regulators keep cashing the checks. :silly:

[citizen snips]

104. Sector Glance: Telecom

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of most telecommunications headed lower Tuesday along with the broader market amid worries over a possible recession.

For much of the day, shares of Sprint appeared set to emerge as the lone exception. Shortly before the closing bell shares were a few cents higher following reports that the company is planning more layoffs. The nation's third-largest wireless carrier, which laid off 5,000 employees last year, plans to cut thousands more jobs to reassure investors that its new CEO is serious about cutting costs, according to a Wall Street Journal report Monday.

Dan Hesse took over as Sprint's chief executive after former CEO Gary Forsee was ousted in October amid ongoing financial woes and weak subscriber numbers.

Shares of Qwest Communications International Inc., meanwhile, dropped nearly 4 percent. Shares of AT&T Inc., the exclusive U.S. carrier for Apple Inc.'s iPhone, also slipped. Apple said earlier it sold 4 million of the gadgets during their first 200 days on sale.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080115/sector_glance_telecom.html?.v=1

[MilesColtrane]

111. DJI down 10% in a little over a month.

The cup appears to be half bearish, not half bullish.

[AnneD]

115. Want to get in...

on our stock market pool. When do you think the market will hit 10,578.24-what it was when Bush took office.